Is Carmelo Anthony an Elite Level Player?
Carmelo Anthony's act of shoot first and don't answer questions later has worn thin with Denver Coach George Karl, Nuggets fans and the media--not that what the media thinks of Anthony should be his top priority but it is also is not a great sign of leadership when he is "ducking out the side door at practice while Iverson is stuck with the media nags," as the Denver Post's Mark Kiszla
wrote in a scathing indictment of Anthony's deficiencies. Karl's biggest concern about Anthony is his overall maturity level: "I've told Melo in the last two weeks, 'I don't think you're listening. I don't think you're listening as well as you need to listen.' For me, the next step is to change the democracy back to a dictatorship." What exactly does that mean? Karl spelled it out point blank when he was asked if he would bench the NBA's leading scorer: "I think that's the next move." Karl dug up an interesting statistical nugget (no pun intended) to support his contention that Anthony is focusing too much on scoring: Anthony had more points/rebounds double-doubles in one year at Syracuse than he has had in nearly four NBA seasons.
Some observers tried to sell the public a bill of goods about Anthony, starting last summer during the FIBA World Championship. Supposedly Anthony had turned things around and was now worthy of being included in the same category as LeBron James and Dwyane Wade. I watched Team USA's games and was much less impressed than others seemed to be with Anthony's play. Anthony was later honored as the 2006 USA Basketball Male Athlete of the Year--but,
as I noted during the summer after Anthony was selected to the All-World Championship Team, he offset the fact that he was Team USA's leading scorer with his poor defense. After Greece defeated Team USA, one commentator went so far as to write, "The one player who I found myself most often rewinding and saying 'what the hell was he doing?' was Carmelo Anthony. Most of the time he was away from the play and managed to simultaneously not guard his man and not help either. I have not watched the other games this closely, but after watching this game I would have a very hard time making a case for Anthony being our MVP."
I did the Denver Nuggets preview for
Lindy's Pro Basketball 2006-07 and clearly stated that Anthony's name should not be mentioned in the same breath with the game's top players: "Carmelo Anthony's third season was his best one yet, but the time when he was compared to fellow '03 draftees LeBron James and Dwyane Wade seems like a distant memory now. Anthony improved his questionable shot selection and lackadaisical defense, but still needs more work in both areas. He does have a propensity for hitting game-winning shots but has yet to show the ability to dominate an entire game or a playoff series like James and Wade can. The difference is that those guys can affect a game in multiple ways, while Anthony's impact is felt almost exclusively in the scoring column. He is a subpar rebounder for his size and the position he plays, nor does he get a lot of assists, steals or blocks."
The sad part is that Anthony clearly has a lot of talent and at some level he knows how to play the game the right way; after all, he led Syracuse to a national championship as a freshman. Somehow, Anthony's game has regressed in the NBA even as his scoring average has soared. Karl is equally frustrated and hopeful, saying in one breath, "And, right now, what you're saying is basically, 'When is Melo going to get it?' Is it going to be next month?' As a coach, there's no one more frustrated, there's no one more angry than me, because I feel the pain" and then noting, "I think what you're baffled by is you see a guy who could be a top-five player in basketball." The question is whether Anthony is willing to adjust his attitude in order to reach his full potential as a player. On Tuesday night Anthony had 21 points, seven rebounds and six assists in a 106-91 win over the New Orleans/Oklahoma City Hornets. Those are the kind of all-around numbers that Karl would like to see. Was that just a one time deal against a sub-.500 team or has Anthony taken his coach's words to heart?
posted by David Friedman @ 11:58 PM
The Score, the Key Stat, the Bottom Line: Monday Night's Action
Monday night saw Yao Ming returning to action and the entire Detroit Pistons team taking a roll of stamps and mailing it in (as Keith Olbermann would say).
The Score: Cleveland 91, Houston 85
The Key Stat: Houston shot just 32-89 (.360) from the field; Yao Ming shot 5-15 and scored 16 points in his first game since December 23.
The Bottom Line: The Rockets are a strange team. They went 20-12 without Yao as Tracy McGrady carried the team on his back and then they have a lackluster performance when their All-Star center returns to action. A big part of the problem versus Cleveland was that Houston tried to force feed the ball to Yao, who was understandably tentative and rusty after being out of action for so long. The Rockets trailed by as many as 14 points but cut the deficit to two points as McGrady scored 21 second half points (he finished with 25 points, seven rebounds and four assists). Assuming that both of their stars are healthy the rest of the way, Houston should be a formidable postseason force.
The Score: Golden State 111, Detroit 93
The Key Stat: The 27-35 Warriors led by as many as 26 points in this crushing defeat of the team with the Eastern Conference's best record.
The Bottom Line: Rasheed Wallace did not play due to a left foot injury but his absence alone cannot explain how Detroit fell to a team that had lost six straight games and whose coach, Don Nelson, essentially threw in the towel on this season a few days ago when he said, "I thought I could get this team in the playoffs and it doesn't look like I'm going to be able to do it." Detroit led 53-46 with 3:18 remaining in the first half but then completely collapsed, trailing 61-55 at halftime. Why exactly should Chicago, Cleveland or even Miami be afraid of facing Detroit in the playoffs?
The Score: Miami 88, Atlanta 81
The Key Stat: The Heat improved to 4-2 since Dwyane Wade's shoulder injury and pushed their overall record above .500 for the first time since November, when they started the season 3-2.
The Bottom Line: Atlanta is not a good team and this was hardly an artistic victory but Miami found a way to get it done while still keeping Shaquille O'Neal's minutes under 30. He contribued 14 points and a game-high nine rebounds, while Eddie Jones led the Heat with 21 points.
The Score: Orlando 99, Milwaukee 81
The Key Stat: Coming off a 52 point game on Sunday versus Chicago, Michael Redd shot just 3-16 from the field, finishing with 15 points.
The Bottom Line: Orlando started the season 14-5 and has been in free fall ever since (15-28). Do you think that the Magic might want a "do-over" for the first round of the 2006 NBA Draft, when they picked J.J. Redick with the 11th selection overall? Redick is averaging 6.0 ppg while shooting .407 from the field. They could have chosen Thabo Sefolosha, Rodney Carney, Ronnie Brewer, Marcus Williams or Paul Millsap, each of whom looks like he will be a more productive pro. Meanwhile, Redick generally only appears on the court in blowouts (he did have a nice game recently against the Spurs--16 points in 31 minutes--but that was the only time this season that he has played more than 30 minutes in a game); he had seven points on 3-7 shooting in 15 minutes against Milwaukee. The Magic are fighting to get the last playoff spot in the East and could use one more guy who can actually contribute something.
posted by David Friedman @ 12:27 AM
Suns Squeak by Undermanned Lakers, 99-94
The Suns defeated the Lakers 99-94 in Phoenix on Sunday in a rematch of one of last year's most exciting first round playoff series. The big difference this time is how depleted the Lakers' roster is due to injuries. Starting forwards Lamar Odom and Luke Walton are out. Key reserves Vladimir Radmanovic and Chris Mihm are also sidelined, while starting center Kwame Brown has just returned to action and is still shaking off rust. The Suns suited up all of their key players except for the multi-talented Boris Diaw (back spasms), so one would think that they would win easily--but that was not the case at all. Steve Nash overcame a sluggish first half (2-11 field goal shooting) to finish with 23 points and 10 assists, shooting 9-21 (.429) from the field. Kobe Bryant scored 31 points and had six assists, shooting 11-28 (.393) from the field. Each MVP candidate shot worse from the field than he usually does. Interestingly, from a statistical standpoint, they accounted for an identical number of points: valuing each assist at two points, they each contributed 43 tangible points. I say tangible because each player has value beyond his statistics. Bryant draws double-teams, which leads to wide open shots even on plays when he does not deliver the scoring pass. Nash's dribble penetration similarly distorts the opposing team's defense even though it is not necessary (or even desirable) to double-team him. Their similar production should not surprise anyone because both players' numbers--other than their mutually subpar shooting--were right in line with their season averages.
Bryant and Nash are playmakers in the truest, fullest sense of the term because their actions set the table for the vast majority of what their teams do offensively. They score, they break down the defense and they make great passes. Bryant's performance enabled the Lakers to stay close (never trailing by more than 10) even though their patchwork lineup included Shammond Williams and Aaron McKie, who had played in just 15 and five games respectively this season. The only Laker other than Bryant who scored more than eight points was Brian Cook (22 points), who started at power forward in place of Odom. Bryant played virtually the entire game (44:51), faced two great individual defenders (Raja Bell, then Shawn Marion, who eventually fouled out) and had to deal with frequent double-teaming. When Bryant was single-covered he generally scored or drew fouls (8-10 free throw shooting); when he faced double-coverage he made a number of gorgeous passes. Unfortunately, many of them did not result in assists because his teammates either fumbled them or missed the ensuing shot attempts. In the first half, Bryant drove to the hoop, drew several Phoenix defenders and delivered a point blank behind the back pass to Kwame Brown. This is the kind of pass that Steve Nash fans rave about and that usually results in a dunk by All-Stars Amare Stoudemire or Shawn Marion; instead, the ball went straight through Brown's hands. The most enjoyable part of the game was a six minute stretch in the fourth quarter when Bryant and Nash alternated great plays. Bryant scored or made a great pass and then Nash answered with a basket or a nice feed. Bryant had seven points and three assists during that time, while Nash had eight points and one assist (both players also had passes that led to free throw attempts and/or eventually resulted in baskets).
Bryant's sweetest pass of the game came with 7:59 remaining in the third quarter when he delivered a no look feed to Cook for a fast break dunk that gave the Lakers a 55-54 lead. Nash had several bounce passes that came from unreal angles and landed right on target.
These teams are heading in opposite directions right now and the reason why can be seen by looking at the boxscore. We've already looked at the performances delivered by the team's respective MVP candidates. They essentially canceled each other out. Four Phoenix players other than Nash scored in double figures, paced by Sixth Man of the Year candidate Leandro Barbosa, who had 20 points, four rebounds and four assists. Meanwhile, the Laker guards other than Bryant (Smush Parker, Shammond Williams, Sasha Vujacic and Aaron McKie) shot 5-18 from the field and combined to score 15 points. The Suns could basically ignore those guys and run double-teams at Bryant. The Lakers simply did not have enough scoring threats on the court to run a viable offense. This led to shot clock violations, turnovers and some "hand grenade" shots by Bryant (a "hand grenade" is when the play breaks down and someone passes the ball to Bryant with less than five seconds on the shot clock, ensuring that a desperate, low percentage shot will ensue before the shot clock "explodes"--the equivalent of throwing away a hand grenade before it explodes). Jordan Farmar will be a solid point guard at some point but he has hit the rookie wall like a ton of bricks and did not play at all versus Phoenix. The Lakers are really struggling to put a legitimate team on the court--their frontcourt is decimated without Odom and Walton and the guard situation (other than Bryant, of course) may be even worse. It will take a tremendous performance by Bryant down the stretch to keep the Lakers in the playoff hunt if they don't get some of their injured players back quickly. Prior to the game, Lakers Coach Phil Jackson indicated that he reached out to 41 year old Scottie Pippen to see if the six-time champion is serious about coming back. Pippen's ballhandling and defense could be just what the Lakers need, assuming that his body is physically up to the task.
posted by David Friedman @ 7:24 PM
The Evolution of the Usage of the Three Point Shot
The three pointer has become an integral aspect of basketball at all levels of the game. This was not always the case. The trey is generally identified as an ABA innovation, even though it actually predates that league's existence. For several years after the NBA-ABA merger the old guard NBA owners refused to institute a three point shot. Even after they relented it took quite some time before coaches really integrated the three pointer into their offensive game plans. My latest NBCSports.com article looks at how the usage of the three point shot has evolved since the founding of the ABA in 1967-68:
The Evolution of the Usage of the Three Point Shot
posted by David Friedman @ 10:48 PM
Why the Heat Won't Miss Dwyane Wade as Much as Most People Think
The Miami Heat moved to 3-2 since Dwyane Wade's shoulder injury after Shaquille O'Neal had 31 points and 15 rebounds in an 85-82 win over the Detroit Pistons, the team with the best record in the Eastern Conference. Everyone's been writing eulogies for the Heat since Wade was wheeled off of the court but Miami is far from dead, particularly considering the state of the "Leastern" Conference. The Heat are now the seventh seeded team in the East and only trail Indiana by a half game for the sixth spot. The Pacers have lost four straight, all by double figure margins, and are moving south so quickly that they will be in the Caribbean by next week.
Has anyone noticed that Dwyane Wade was not even able to carry last year's champions to a .500 record when O'Neal was injured? Wade is a great talent but he cannot carry a team like Tracy McGrady does in Houston without Yao Ming or like Kobe Bryant does in L.A. despite losing Lamar Odom, Luke Walton, Kwame Brown, Chris Mihm and Vladimir Radmanovic for all or part of the season. Give Wade all the credit in the world for his Finals performance last year but there is a reason that Dallas did not double-team him: the Mavericks knew that if they did not slant their defense toward O'Neal that he would beat them, as he did to the tune of 30 points and 20 rebounds in the clinching game of the first round versus Chicago. Dallas Coach Avery Johnson understood O'Neal's capabilities during last year's Finals, which is why he single-covered Wade, taking his chances on Wade beating the Mavericks as opposed to having O'Neal shoot 60% from the field on shots in the paint.
Bryant and McGrady score points and make plays despite facing double and triple teams. Prior to Houston's 108-97 win over Denver on Friday night, Nuggets Coach George Karl called McGrady the second best playmaker in the game behind Bryant, adding, "I think that the presence of McGrady is probably as powerful as Nash." Bryant and McGrady are the ultimate playmakers because of their size, speed and unstoppable scoring ability combined with their passing skills and willingness to give up the ball. Nash is a wonderful shooter and a gifted playmaker but he has two All-Star level finishers (who finished just fine in the All-Star Game without him) and several excellent shooters flanking him. Bryant and McGrady are keeping patchwork teams afloat because of their overpowering ability to score regardless of the defenses that they face and because of the way that they force double teams, affording their less gifted teammates the opportunity to shoot wide open shots.
There are a couple reasons that the Heat will do better down the stretch with O'Neal and without Wade than they did earlier in the year with Wade and without O'Neal. One, O'Neal is well rested after sitting out for most of the season. Meanwhile, most of the players he is facing are worn down after playing so many more games. In 1961-62, Elgin Baylor played in only 48 games because of his military obligations. He averaged a career-best 38.3 ppg, including 41.3 ppg in December 1961 (Wilt Chamberlain and Kobe Bryant are the only other players who have ever averaged 40-plus ppg for a calendar month). During that season's NBA Finals, Baylor scored a playoff record 61 points in game five, a mark that stood until Michael Jordan's 63 point game in 1986. Baylor later mentioned that he had the advantage of being more well rested and less beat up than the players who had played for the entire season.
A second thing in O'Neal's favor is that the finish line is in sight, so he does not have to pace himself, as he would have had to do if he had played an entire season. O'Neal is not as quick or explosive as he once was but he still cannot be covered one on one--and he takes pride in this fact: "I take it personal when people don't double me. It's against my religion not to double me. It upsets me. It makes me think they're saying to themselves I don't have it anymore," said O'Neal after he destroyed the Pistons' frontcourt on Friday. The greatest thing about O'Neal has always been that he understands what he can and cannot do--and what he should and should not do. He is a devastating inside scorer, so he stays in the paint. O'Neal does not shoot three pointers and does not try to prove that he can hit face up jumpers; he plants himself in the paint and dares the other team to stop him. He cannot perform at a high level for an entire season anymore and last year he understood that it would be better for all concerned if Wade took the leading role most of the time.
O'Neal will spend the latter part of this season shooting high percentage shots, getting the opposing team into foul trouble (and the Heat into the bonus) and drawing double-teams that will lead to open shots for his teammates. O'Neal is still capable of being a dominating force, particularly against single-coverage.
Now, let's play the "what if?" game. What if O'Neal had recognized a few years ago that his skills were starting to erode and that it was time for Kobe Bryant to be option 1 and O'Neal to be option 2? The formula that worked for one title last year in Miami could have worked for multiple titles in L.A. Bryant has shown that he can average 40 ppg for a month and 35 ppg for a season. He has shown that he can carry an otherwise mediocre team into the playoffs. In other words, he has shown that he can do more with less compared to what Wade can do. Contrary to what you may have read elsewhere, these are not new developments. Back in 2002-03, O'Neal was banged up and Bryant averaged 30.0 ppg as the Lakers tried to win a fourth straight title. Instead of petulantly feuding with Bryant, O'Neal should have dealt with him the way he dealt with Wade last year; that should have been the time that Bryant became the main option, with O'Neal being an even deadlier second option than he was last year. Yes, O'Neal and the Heat got one championship by the skin of their teeth after Dallas blinked with a 2-0 lead. No, the Heat will not win another title. So, the "what if?" question is what would have happened if O'Neal would have accepted Bryant's emergence as the number one option in 2002-03 instead of fighting it every step of the way? I have always said and still believe that if O'Neal would have been willing to work with Bryant the way that he worked with Wade that the Lakers would have continued to win titles--not every year, but they would be like the Spurs: in the hunt perennially. The Spurs won three titles in a seven year stretch (and are not out of the race for this year's championship, either). O'Neal and Bryant won three in a row and could have continued to win titles in O'Neal's declining years. If O'Neal and Bryant were on the same team this year, Bryant would have kept the team in the hunt to a greater degree than Wade did in O'Neal's absence. Furthermore, Bryant has played longer than Wade and has yet to have an injury serious enough to cause him to miss the playoffs. If things had gone differently, O'Neal could be chasing his sixth title instead of being stuck on four.
Back to reality: if O'Neal avoids further injury, the Heat will move up to sixth in the East. The idea that they will miss the playoffs because of Wade's injury is nonsense. In fact, even without Wade the Heat could conceivably win first round matchups with either Washington or Toronto; those teams do not have the inside presence or playoff savvy to beat Miami in a seven game series. The Eastern team that is best suited to beat Miami in a playoff series right now is Chicago. The Bulls gave the Heat a dogfight last year, but could not deal with O'Neal inside. The presence of Ben Wallace will make a big difference this time around, plus the Bulls will have a decided advantage on the perimeter with Wade on the shelf.
posted by David Friedman @ 1:53 AM
NBA Leaderboard, Part XI
All-Star Weekend is over and the stretch run to the NBA playoffs has now begun in earnest.
Best Five Records
-------------------
1) Dallas Mavericks, 48-9
2) Phoenix Suns, 44-14
3) San Antonio Spurs, 39-18
4) Utah Jazz, 38-19
5) Detroit Pistons, 36-19
The Suns are having a tremendous season but cannot gain ground on the Mavericks, who have a chance to post one of the best records in NBA history. The Eastern Conference finally has made its presence felt in the top five, as the Detroit Pistons supplanted the Houston Rockets; Detroit's acquisition of Chris Webber has made up for the mistake of losing Ben Wallace and has positioned Detroit as the team to beat in the East (of course, Flip Saunders' history as a playoff coach suggests that someone will indeed beat them).
Top Five Scorers (and a few other notables)
------------------
1) Carmelo Anthony, DEN 30.6 ppg
2) Gilbert Arenas, WSH 29.2 ppg
3) Kobe Bryant, LAL 29.0 ppg
4) Dwyane Wade, MIA 28.8 ppg
5) Allen Iverson, DEN 28.1 ppg
7) LeBron James, CLE 26.7 ppg
10) Vince Carter, NJN 25.4 ppg
12) Tracy McGrady, HOU 24.6 ppg
Since the last leaderboard, Kobe Bryant moved up one spot and cut the deficit separating him from first place from 2.1 to 1.6 ppg. With Anthony's average inching downward and the Lakers once again becoming increasingly dependent on Bryant's scoring, Bryant's chances to repeat as the scoring champion are looking better by the day. If Wade is unable to return to action then he will of course eventually drop off the list because he has not played in enough games or scored enough points to meet the NBA's minimum qualification standards for a complete season. McGrady's average has gone up more than two ppg since January 10.
Top Five Rebounders (and a few other notables)
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1) Kevin Garnett, MIN 12.8 rpg
2) Tyson Chandler, NOK 12.4 rpg
3) Dwight Howard, ORL 12.2 rpg
4) Emeka Okafor, CHA 11.7 rpg
5) Carlos Boozer, UTA 11.5 rpg
7) Tim Duncan, SAS 10.8 rpg
9) Ben Wallace, CHI 10.4 rpg
11) Shawn Marion, PHX 10.2 rpg
24) Rasheed Wallace, DET 8.1 rpg
25) Jason Kidd, NJN 8.0 rpg
Marion slipped just outside of the top ten but is still having an incredible season for an undersized inside player. The top three players each increased their averages by about the same amount since the previous leaderboard.
Top Five Playmakers
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1) Steve Nash, PHX 11.9 apg
2) Deron Williams, UTA 9.3 apg
3) Jason Kidd, NJN 8.9 apg
4) Baron Davis, GSW 8.7 apg
5) Chris Paul, NOK 8.6 ppg
Davis and Paul switched spots and the rest of the top five stayed the same, as it has for most of the season. Starbury fell out of the top 20 and now ranks 23rd (5.5 apg), but he is just percentage points behind the players who are in the 19th-22nd positions.
Note: All statistics are from ESPN.com
posted by David Friedman @ 1:22 AM
