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Tuesday, April 07, 2009

Michael Jordan Views Hall of Fame Induction as Sign of Mortality

It is said that an athlete dies twice. Rarely has there been a more poignant--and somewhat surreal--illustration of that concept than Michael Jordan's Basketball Hall of Fame press conference. Many athletes have been moved to tears upon being selected as Hall of Famers--and many deserving athletes who are on the outside looking in at the Hall of Fame want nothing more than to receive that fateful call announcing that they have joined the immortals of their sport. Jordan, who heads this year's class of David Robinson, Jerry Sloan, C. Vivian Stringer and John Stockton, had a decidedly different take on being chosen:

This is not fun for me. I don't like being up here for the Hall of Fame because at that time your basketball career is completely over. I was hoping this day would be 20 more years, or actually go in when I'm dead and gone. Because now, all along...you always [could] put shorts on and go out and play. Now, when you get into the Hall of Fame, what else is there to do? This is kind of a love-hate thing for me--great accomplishment, great respect that everybody's paying, but for me, I always want to be able to have you thinking that I can always go back and play the game of basketball, put my shorts on. As long as you have that thought, you never know what can happen...Am I? No. But I'd like for you to think that way. Hall of Fame, to me, is like, 'OK, it's over and done with, it's pretty much done, you can't ever put a uniform back on.' It's totally the end of your basketball career. But it's a great accomplishment. I don't walk away from it. But I never envisioned myself really wanting to be up here so quickly. I wanted it to be when I'm 70 years old, 80 years old. I'm 45 and I still think I can play. You guys don't know if I can or can't but at least I've got you thinking that way.

Jordan sounded and looked more than wistful; it seemed like he really wanted to rip off his suit, put on a jersey and challenge Kobe Bryant or LeBron James to a game of one on one right now. It does not surprise me that Jordan feels this way and I suspect that a few other Hall of Fame inductees had similar thoughts pass through their minds but I've never heard anyone explicitly say such things so strongly--Jordan seemed to be dead serious when he said that he would rather not be put in the Hall of Fame until he is either old or even dead. As I watched him utter those words, I had decidedly mixed feelings. On the one hand, I appreciate how extraordinarily competitive he is; nothing will ever be as fulfilling or meaningful to him as those moments when he was at the peak of his powers and simply killing anyone who stood in his way. When Jordan retired for the first time and said that he was going to spend more time with his family that statement was plainly absurd, because Jordan is as single-mindedly devoted to what he does best as any other genius is single-mindedly devoted to his passion; a PBS special about Albert Einstein noted that the great physicist wrote out a series of demands that his wife had to follow in order to stay married to him, including to only speak to him when spoken to first by him and to deliver him his food precisely when he wanted it so that he could eat in solitude while he pondered the mysteries of the universe: geniuses--whether in sports, physics or any other field--often place greater value on their work than they do on relationships with other people. When ESPN aired those "SportsCentury" documentaries a decade ago, it struck me that Jack Nicklaus was about the only person who could claim to be the greatest at what he did who appeared to have a somewhat "normal" family life and relationships with other people.

At the same time that I very clearly understand exactly how Jordan feels and why he said what he said, I could not help but think of The ABA's Unsung Heroes, players like Roger Brown, Mel Daniels and Artis Gilmore: induction in the Hall of Fame would mean so much to them, to their families and to everyone who was affiliated with the ABA. Sadly, they will likely never receive the recognition that they deserve, while Jordan--who knew that he would be a first ballot selection--trivialized the highest honor in the sport. I'm sure that Jordan did not mean for his comments to be taken that way--if nothing else, he is way too focused on his own thoughts and feelings to even consider how what he said could be interpreted regarding larger issues--but in some ways what he said was a slap in the face to everyone who has been inducted in the Hall of Fame as well as to people who should have received that honor long ago but have been snubbed. Jordan is not concerned with being a sports immortal because he considers such status to be a given in his case but most people treasure being chosen as a Hall of Famer.

Jordan's bold defiance of the natural order--the aging process that cruelly robs all of us of our youth, our talents and ultimately our very existence--is at once inspiring and sad; it is what made him so great but it could also end up making him a very miserable old man if he does not find an outlet for his competitive juices or a way to channel all of that energy into other endeavors. If Jordan never discovers anything else that provides meaning or value to him then the next few decades of his life could prove to be very empty. When he is 75 years old is he going to be limping on to the court before game one of the Finals and still proclaiming that he wants everyone to think that he can still play? When Jordan says that at age 45, for at least a second you think that maybe he really could still compete, at least for a few minutes in a half court set--but not too long from now, such declarations are going to seem more delusional or pathetic than proud or defiant. Hopefully, Jordan can emulate the path of Jerry West and Joe Dumars and be satisfied to sublimate his personal competitive urges to the task of building a championship team but somehow I doubt that even winning a championship as an executive would mean a fraction as much to Jordan as the chance to play just one more NBA game as a dominant player.

Andrea Jaeger is an elite athlete (the second ranked tennis player in the world in 1981) who has devoted her post-tennis life to helping ease the suffering of ill children; Jaeger is obviously an exceptional example but perhaps Jordan would be more at peace--and could help make the world a better place--if he uses the profile he has acquired and the resources at his disposal to help people who are less fortunate than he is. Garry Kasparov--arguably the greatest chess champion of all-time--is the same age as Jordan and has been retired from competitive chess nearly as long as Jordan has been retired from the NBA but Kasparov has created a second life for himself as a political activist, author and strong supporter of chess as a positive activity for young people.

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posted by David Friedman @ 4:44 PM

18 comments

Sunday, April 05, 2009

Cavs Bounce Back, Rout Spurs

LeBron James set the tone by scoring 18 first quarter points and he finished with 38 points, seven rebounds and six assists as the Cleveland Cavaliers ended their two game losing streak by beating the San Antonio Spurs 101-81. Delonte West and Mo Williams added 22 points each, mainly by draining open looks after the Spurs were forced to double team James lest he score 50 or 60 points. Only three other Cavs scored but the Cavs held the Spurs to .392 field goal shooting and won the rebounding battle 44-34. Tony Parker led the Spurs with 24 points but former Cav Drew Gooden (15 points) was the only other Spur who scored more than eight points; Tim Duncan had just six points on 2-7 field goal shooting, while Manu Ginobili scored four points on 2-9 field goal shooting.

The three foundations of Cleveland's success are defense, rebounding and the individual brilliance of LeBron James and all three of those elements played crucial roles in this win. Cleveland's defense and rebounding versus the Spurs are even more impressive considering that the Cavs were without the services not only of Ben Wallace (broken bone in his right leg) but also Anderson Varejao, who was a late scratch due to a wrist injury; it is not clear exactly when/how Varejao got hurt or when he will return to action.

Like Michael Jordan and Kobe Bryant, James often eases into a game, involving his teammates early and then shouldering the scoring load late--but following disappointing losses to Washington and Orlando, James decided to be very aggressive right from the start versus San Antonio. He shot 6-9 from the field and made all six of his free throws in the first quarter. Four of those six field goals were midrange jumpers, including three from the left wing and a turnaround shot from the right elbow, the shot that became a trademark move for Jordan during the latter stages of his career. James is still an erratic midrange shooter but this game provided a glimpse of just how good he could become if he starts to consistently connect from that area; basically, he can be a "supersized" version of Jordan or Bryant, because there is no defense for a player who goes to the hoop as powerfully as James does and who can make the midrange shot. It remains to be seen how long it will take for James to fully and completely develop that aspect of his game but what he did on Sunday has to send a shiver up and down the spines of the other 29 NBA coaches.

After James' 18 point first quarter, the Spurs began to "blitz" (double team) him as soon as he caught the ball, sometimes even sending that second defender toward him while the pass was still in the air. James is a very poised and unselfish player who instantly reads situations and makes the right pass; in other words, he does not hold the ball or even just make a generic pass out of the trap: he zeroes in on who has been left open in shooting range and delivers the ball right in that player's shooting pocket, which is why West and Williams not only had big games but shot 10-15 and 9-15 from the field respectively.

It is interesting to note that even with James' early scoring outburst the Cavs only led 28-27 after the first quarter. Cleveland broke the game open in the second quarter as their reserves outplayed San Antonio's reserves. As San Antonio Coach Gregg Popovich said after the game, "When we subbed in the second quarter is when everything went south--and he (James) wasn't on the court." There is a misconception in some quarters that James does not have as much help as, say, Kobe Bryant does with the Lakers, but the reality is that the Cavs are at least 10 deep with veteran players who have playoff experience and can be productive for at least 15 minutes per game if necessary: Wally Szczerbiak is a former All-Star, Sasha Pavlovic started for the Cavs in 2007 when they made it to the Finals, Joe Smith is a former number one overall draft pick, Daniel Gibson hit many big shots during the 2007 playoffs and Varejao--who has been starting only since Ben Wallace got hurt--is an excellent defender, rebounder and screener. Even young players such as J.J. Hickson, Darnell Jackson--who started on Sunday for Varejao, contributing four points and five rebounds--and Tarence Kinsey have been productive during spot duty throughout this season.

Cleveland Coach Mike Brown was understandably pleased with how his team responded to the mini losing streak. In his postgame standup he said, "I thought that at the beginning of the game we had a few breakdowns defensively but as the course of the game went on, our guys' focus, energy and effort got better and better. That was great to see. Defensively, we have gotten hurt in transition the last two games, so it was good to see us get back and not give up any easy (baskets)." Brown made an adjustment to his normal rotation by playing West and Williams together with the second unit in order to have multiple players on the court who can create shots for themselves and for their teammates.

After Parker's big first quarter, James often had the defensive assignment against the super quick point guard. Coach Brown explained, "We've done that in the past. We did it in the (2007) Finals. We just knew going into the game that first we were going to play our traditional defense, then if that hurt us we were going to play Tony soft and give him the jump shot coming off (screens) with a late contest and then if he knocked down those shots we were going to put a bigger body on him, which is LeBron. Our pick and roll defense was getting hurt initially and then Tony started hitting jump shots, so we continued playing Tony soft but just put a bigger body on him so that when he came off and we got a late contest maybe he will see that body more than when we play him with a guy his size."

While the Cavs have been a dominant defensive team this season, the Spurs have had a subpar year--at least by their lofty standards--at that end of the court; the Spurs rank just 10th in defensive field goal percentage, the statistic that Coach Gregg Popovich looks at first when evaluating his team's performance (see Notes From Courtside). Although 10th in a league of 30 teams may not seem that bad, the last time that the Spurs ranked lower than fifth in this category was the 1996-97 season, when Popovich fired Bob Hill after a 3-15 start and took over as the head coach. Under Popovich, the Spurs have led the league in defensive field goal percentage three times and ranked in the top three seven times in the past 11 seasons.

*****************************
Notes From Courtside:

During Coach Popovich's pregame standup, he said that the Cavs are "a significantly better team" than they were in 2007, when the Spurs swept them in the NBA Finals. "We definitely caught them at the right time (in 2007). They understand Mike's system much better (now). They are a deeper team--the pieces fit better and there is more talent. The most important ingredient, LeBron, has really matured. He's worked on his game. He is sharing with his teammates, he is depending on them more, the way that Kobe depends on his teammates more. He has worked on his shooting. He is a much more confident player in that respect. For all of those reasons the improvement is obvious and that is why they are a top contender to win the championship this year."

I asked Popovich, "What specific improvements have you seen with LeBron defensively? What do you notice that is different from earlier in his career?"

He replied, "I'm glad that you mentioned that. I think basically he is just taking more pride in it and playing it with more purpose, understanding when stops might be very important and taking it upon himself to set that kind of an example. That's important--when your best player sets a standard, at either end of the court, everybody else follows and it's infectious. I think that he has done that to a much greater degree than he did a couple years ago." In response to a followup by USA TODAY's Chris Colston, Popovich said that the Olympic experience was good for James and many other members of Team USA, because the players learned by "osmosis" the importance of unselfishness and defense. The crucial role that Kobe Bryant and Jason Kidd played in emphasizing those things cannot be stressed enough; this not only helped to bring the gold medal back to the United States, but elevated the games of James and other young stars who proved to be eager and enthusiastic students.

I then asked Popovich, "When you evaluate your team, either after a game or after a series of games, what are one or two statistical areas that you particularly look at?" Mindful of Popovich's tendency to sometimes answer questions sarcastically--though I felt that I was on safe ground because I was not asking the sort of banal and/or stupid questions that bring forth sarcastic replies from him--I added, "Other than the final score, of course--the sarcastic answer." At that point, Popovich reassuringly said, "Sure," making it clear that he did not intend to give a sarcastic reply, and I concluded, "What categories do you look at to see if your team is on target or not?"

Popovich answered, "The first thing that I always look at is field goal percentage defense. To me, that tells a lot about how things are going. At that point, I just look for aberrations--have we been getting our clock cleaned on the offensive boards or did we have an inordinate amount of turnovers, that sort of thing. Field goal percentage defense is what I look at. Offensively, I don't look at much, because it is obvious--either you shot well or you didn't. Either you made your free throws or you didn't. Those aren't very controllable but rebounds are more controllable, turnovers are more controllable. Defense is controllable. So those are the things that I look at."

I asked Popovich what his defensive field goal percentage goal is but he said, "I don't have a number in mind. It changes year in and year out based on possessions and competition but it's usually going to be in the low 40s--difficult to do, but that's what you'd love to have. I don't know what Cleveland is right now--I think that they are number one or number two in field goal percentage defense."

I informed him that Cleveland is holding teams to right around .420-.430 field goal shooting and he said simply, "That's good."

Popovich has a very high opinion of Mike Brown, who was a member of San Antonio's staff during the 2003 championship season: "The basic qualities that make Mike a wonderful coach are, number one, he has a game plan that he believes in. He knows what he wants to coach and teach. That's the first step. A coach has to feel very confident in what he is teaching and know it inside and out. I think that secondly he understands that no team wins championships without being a hell of a defensive squad. He has done that consistently, been persistent, has demanded year in and year out, practice to practice, game to game that everybody understands that. A lot of coaches give in but he hasn't, so his overall system and the emphasis on defense are what are really important basically to go after an NBA championship. After that, I think that he is a great people person. He is willing to talk to players, he's willing to listen, he has a sense of humor--all of those things are important in an 82 game season. He added to our defensive philosophy (as an assistant coach in San Antonio). I put things in the program that he initiated...Some people just have it and he's got it."

When I recently asked Coach Brown what he thought about Houston's reliance on basketball statistical analysis, he replied, "Not to knock that, because I think it is great to use if you have some solid information, but how many championships has that gotten them?" Naturally, I sought out Popovich's take on this issue as well: "Did you see the article in the New York Times about how Houston uses 'advanced' statistics both in how they evaluate players and how they game plan?"

He answered, "I know about it."

I then asked, "What is your opinion about that kind of use of statistics? How much do you rely on that kind of thing versus the eyeball test?"

He said, "I think it's just a common sense thing--by the seat of the pants, eyeball, 'feel,' is very important. Stats can be important. Both can be taken to the point of diminishing returns. So it's a common sense thing that works."

I told Popovich, "Coach Brown said that when he was on your staff that you very much went by feel but that P.J. (Carlesimo) was much more stat oriented and he kept telling you about this number and that number."

"That would be an accurate statement," Popovich replied.

"So you are more of a 'feel' coach in general, even though you said that it can be done either way?" I asked.

"Yes. I would depend more on what I see and feel than on overdosing on stats."

***

Before the game, I approached San Antonio defensive specialist Bruce Bowen--a five time All-Defensive First Team member--but he told me that he only talks to the press after the game. This kind of thing annoys some media members and probably is not permitted under a strict interpretation of media availability rules but I understand and respect that every player has his own way of getting mentally and physically prepared to play. On the other hand, the reason that I try to talk to players before games--particularly when my questions are of a general nature and not specific to a particular game--is that if their team gets blown out or they get ejected or something else goes awry then they may either not be available after the game or may not be in a mood to say much of substance. Bowen scored two points on 1-4 shooting and had a -17 plus/minus number in 17 minutes of action, so you can imagine how he must have felt after Sunday's game. I went up to him in the locker room and reminded him gently that he had promised to talk and I noted that I only had a few questions about the general subject of defense. Understandably, he was hardly enthusiastic, but he did not shoo me away, either, so I asked my first question: "Are you familiar with the New York Times article about how the Rockets use statistical analysis to decide how to play defense, particularly in terms of trying to force Kobe to certain areas of the court? Did you see that article or hear about it?"

Bowen replied, "I haven't. Didn't see it or hear about it."

I then asked, "When you play against Kobe or LeBron, do you look at that kind of stuff, like how they shoot from certain areas of the court? How do you decide how to guard players like that?"

Bowen said, "Nine times out of 10, it's what the coaches want. You get the game plan from the coaches and you go from there. I don't think that you can force anybody in this league to go to a certain particular point to shoot the ball or anything like that. They are All-Stars for a reason, because they are able to do things on the floor that others can't. I don't know about all that mumbo jumbo."

I asked Bowen to describe the similarities and differences from his perspective regarding playing defense against Kobe Bryant and LeBron James but he said, "I haven't put too much thought into that right now, so it would be hard for me to give you a sufficient answer about that."

***

Ben Wallace--who is still on the inactive list--warmed up on the court prior to the game. He wore a black protective covering on his lower right leg and noticeably favored that leg as he shot from various midrange areas, including the free throw line. He jogged through some basic sets with an assistant coach, setting screens and then popping out to shoot jumpers. He tended to shoot well on his first few attempts but then miss wildly the longer he shot from the same spot. For instance, he hit seven of his first nine attempts from the right baseline but ended up making 11 out of 20 from that area. He shot 10-17 on midrange jumpers from the left baseline. Wallace shoots a better percentage on practice jumpers then you might expect from watching him shoot during games but it is important to keep in mind that great NBA shooters typically shoot 80% or better on uncontested practice shots from midrange areas, so making more than half of those shots is not a tremendous percentage, even if the casual fan might be surprised that Wallace can do that in light of his dismal free throw percentage.

***

Eric Snow, who was technically still on Cleveland's roster but did not appear in a game this season and has been working as a commentator for NBA TV, was formally released by the Cavaliers on Sunday due to medical reasons. The knee injury that he suffered prior to the 2007-08 season ultimately ended his career.

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posted by David Friedman @ 7:50 PM

12 comments

Saturday, April 04, 2009

Kobe's Complete Skill Set 4, Houston's "Advanced Stats" 0

A little over a month ago, I wrote about a New York Times article that discussed how the Houston Rockets use basketball statistical analysis to make personnel decisions and game plans. As I indicated in my article, I respect the approach taken by Houston General Manager Daryl Morey because "Morey appears to understand the limits of a purely mathematical approach to the game and thus uses numbers to confirm what his eyes tell him--and vice versa. This is a completely different approach from the one taken by far too many stat gurus who are so enamored with their formulas that they dismiss the importance of actually watching games--perhaps because they are in fact not truly capable of watching basketball games with any real understanding of what is happening on the court." That is why I was surprised that Morey later asserted that the New York Times article focused on defending Bryant and not LeBron James because--in Morey's opinion--James is the best player in the NBA and there allegedly is not an effective game plan to use against James; the first part of Morey's statement is debatable and the second part is clearly wrong. To take the latter point first, on Friday night Orlando demonstrated once again that if you wall off the paint and force James to shoot midrange jumpers he can be held to a subpar (7-20 in this case) shooting night--and that was not a coincidence or a one time thing: as I have noted repeatedly, elite defensive teams (Spurs in the 2007 NBA Finals, Celtics in 2008 Eastern Conference semifinals) consistently employ that game plan against James. James has improved his three point shooting and free throw shooting this year but his midrange game is still erratic at best; he is so good at getting to the hoop one tends not to notice this flaw until James meets greater defensive resistance.

As for Morey's contention that James is the best player in the NBA, I said last year that it was close between Bryant and James but that I gave the edge to Bryant. This year, it has again been close--contrary to what you may have heard--but since the All-Star break I thought that James had pulled slightly ahead. However, there is a reason that I don't believe in making definitive statements about close contests before those contests are over. It seemed like James and the Cavs had the league's best record all sewn up but now they have dropped two games in a row, enabling the Lakers to pull to within one game of the Cavs (and the Lakers own the tiebreak thanks to sweeping the season series).

Although I respect Morey's overall approach to statistics as described in the New York Times article, we need to completely put to rest the ideas that Shane Battier is some kind of Kobe Bryant stopper and that "advanced" statistics have given the Rockets an advantage versus Bryant. Bryant led the Lakers to a 4-0 sweep of the Rockets this season while averaging 28.3 ppg, 5.0 apg and 4.0 rpg; he shot .530 from the field and .533 from three point range but only .680 on free throws, so perhaps the Rockets have superior free throw defense--they sure did not stop him anywhere else (James averaged 24.0 ppg on .409 field goal shooting and .250 three point shooting as his Cavs split two games versus the Rockets).

On Friday, Bryant scored 20 points on 7-11 field goal shooting (including 4-6 from three point range) and he had a game-high seven assists in a 93-81 win over Houston. This season versus the Rockets, Bryant typically set up his teammates for the first three quarters and then went off in the fourth quarter--he averaged just over 11 ppg in the fourth quarter versus the Rockets, while shooting nearly .700 (that is not a misprint) from the field. In other words, he basically showed that even though Houston is an excellent defensive team that can alternate two great one on one defenders (Shane Battier and Ron Artest) on him, Bryant can score whenever and wherever he wants versus the Rockets. During the ESPN telecast of Friday's game, Mark Jackson repeatedly noted that a large percentage of the Lakers' offense was a direct result of Bryant's presence--not just the plays on which he earned assists, but also plays when he was double-teamed and thus created an open shot for a teammate just by virtue of his presence and the defensive attention that he demands. At one point early in the game, Bryant had only shot 1-3 from the field but the Rockets were still double teaming him because he is so dangerous and that is a major reason why Pau Gasol's field goal percentage has skyrocketed from around .500 to well over .560 since becoming Bryant's teammate. So much is said about various players making their teammates better but not nearly enough credit is given to Bryant for the huge impact he has had on Gasol's game.

The last time the Lakers played the Rockets, Bryant dropped 37 points on Houston, including 31 in the second half (on 11-17 field goal shooting) and 18 in the final 4:13. For some reason, Artest decided in the waning moments of that game to tell Bryant that he could lock him down, whereupon Bryant heartily laughed and retorted, "You're a standup comedian now." I don't know if Artest is really that great of a comedian but the notion that the Rockets have discovered how to stop Bryant is definitely a joke.

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posted by David Friedman @ 5:38 AM

7 comments

Friday, April 03, 2009

This Year RoY Should be Spelled R-O-S-E

No rookie averaged 20 ppg or made the All-Star team this season but Derrick Rose has been consistently productive from day one and his Chicago Bulls are in contention for a playoff berth. Point guard is generally considered to be the toughest position for a young NBA player to learn, which makes Rose's smooth transition to the NBA even more impressive.

Here is an analysis of the performances of this year's top rookies:

It is very difficult for a rookie to make an impact in the NBA, either individually or in terms of helping his team to substantially improve. Only two rookies have made the All-Star team since 1998, Tim Duncan (1998) and Yao Ming (2003). Since 2000, only four rookies have averaged at least 20 ppg (Elton Brand, LeBron James, Carmelo Anthony and Kevin Durant). The last Rookie of the Year whose team made the playoffs is Amare Stoudemire (2003), who was a distant third in scoring (13.5 ppg) for the Phoenix Suns.

This season has not broken any of those patterns: no rookie made the All-Star team and no rookie is averaging 20 ppg. We cannot yet say whether or not the Rookie of the Year will play in the playoffs, because we do not know who the Rookie of the Year will be nor do we know the final playoff seedings. However, the fact that only one of the top Rookie of the Year candidates has his team in contention for a playoff berth certainly speaks in his favor; Derrick Rose has responded very well to the pressure of being the No. 1 overall draft pick and playing for his hometown team, the Chicago Bulls, who currently hold a 1.5 game lead over Charlotte for the eighth and final Eastern Conference playoff berth. Rose is averaging 16.6 ppg, 6.2 apg and 3.9 rpg while putting up very solid shooting numbers from the field (.470) and the free-throw line (.791). His three-point shooting percentage is terrible (.235) but he is attempting less than one three-pointer per game, so he understands that he should not be firing away from long distance until he improves his accuracy.

Rose ranks 10th in the NBA in minutes played, which is a very impressive statistic for a young point guard: that shows that he has not hit the "rookie wall" mentally or physically and that his coach trusts him to be the team's leader at all times. Rose ranks first among all rookies in assists and second in scoring. He has been a very consistent performer, both in terms of his month to month production and by posting nearly identical scoring, rebounding and assist averages at home and on the road. Point guard is generally considered to be the toughest position for a young NBA player to learn but Rose has immediately emerged as a very solid contributor for a Bulls team that -- with six games remaining -- has already won three more games than they did last season.

O.J. Mayo averaged 23.1 ppg on .480 field goal shooting in November to unofficially take the early lead in the Rookie of the Year race but his numbers have dropped off dramatically since that time; in March he scored 14.7 ppg on .430 field goal shooting. Mayo is not a great rebounder, passer or defender, so his value mainly consists of how much -- and how efficiently -- he scores. While some people touted him as the most "NBA ready" rookie, I was a little less optimistic after I saw him play in the Summer League, when I offered this early assessment: "Mayo has the tools to be a good NBA scorer but it remains to be seen if he will be an impact player overall -- let alone a superstar -- or if he will primarily be a guy who, as the saying goes, "gets buckets.'" Mayo still leads all rookies in scoring (18.3 ppg) and his three point and free throw percentages (.375 and .876 respectively) are good but the Memphis Grizzlies are just as terrible this year with him as they were last year without him.

When Kevin McHale traded Mayo's draft rights as part of a deal to acquire Kevin Love, some critics made the predictable jokes referring to McHale's track record as Minnesota's General Manager and suggested that he had made a boneheaded move. It is unfortunate that snide comments are passed off as intelligent basketball analysis but the problem is that too many of the so-called experts do not have the foggiest idea about how to watch a player and actually form an intelligent opinion about whether or not he can play, so they shift the issue to a tired, old familiar storyline. I am not going to defend McHale's record because it has nothing to do with the real issue in this context, which is whether or not Love can play.

After I watched Love play in the Summer League, I wrote, "Regardless of the superficial impression that Love's movement creates, he knows how to play the game. He sets screens, makes the correct passes and goes to the glass aggressively at both ends of the court. Love seems to intuitively understand where he is supposed to go, like in one sequence when (teammate Pooh) Jeter drove, drew the defense and Love faded to the perimeter a la Bill Laimbeer, catching a pass and without hesitation drilling a jumper from just behind the college three-point line...In his first NBA action, Love displayed better than advertised mobility, willingness to attack the glass at both ends of the court and a good understanding of how to play offensively in terms of setting screens, making passes and operating in the paint. He made some 'rookie mistakes,' particularly defensively, but most of the things that he did wrong are correctable errors as opposed to fundamental problems with his game/skill set."

Love has surprised a lot of people who did not pay attention to the skill set that he displayed during the Summer League and he is averaging 11.2 ppg and 9.0 rpg (first among rookies, 10th in the league) while shooting .466 from the field and .787 from the free throw line. Love has really played well since the All-Star break, averaging 14.9 ppg and 9.5 rpg while increasing his shooting percentages to .487 and .803 respectively.

Mayo is arguably not even the best rookie on his own team: Marc Gasol is averaging 11.7 ppg (seventh among rookies) and 7.4 rpg (third among rookies) while shooting .532 from the field. While Mayo has been fading fast, Gasol has increased his production across the board since the All-Star break (13.4 ppg, 8.0 rpg, .552 field goal shooting).

Brook Lopez has provided a solid inside presence for a New Jersey team that stayed on the fringes of the battle for the eighth playoff spot in the East until recently sliding backwards in the standings. He is averaging 12.9 ppg (sixth among rookies) and 7.9 rpg (second among rookies) while shooting .528 from the field. He ranks 10th in the NBA in total offensive rebounds and ninth in the league in blocked shots.

Two explosive rookie guards have emerged in the latter portion of the season. Eric Gordon of the L.A. Clippers is averaging 18.8 ppg on .458 field goal shooting since the All-Star break. Overall, though, Gordon is scoring 15.7 ppg (tied for third among rookies) for a team that has the second worst winning percentage in the West and the worst winning percentage for the franchise since 1999-00 -- remember, we're talking about the Clippers here! That just does not look like a Rookie of the Year resume, particularly in contrast to what Rose has accomplished.

The Oklahoma City Thunder's Russell Westbrook is averaging 17.3 ppg since the All-Star break but he is only shooting .395 from the field during that time. For the season, he is averaging 15.7 ppg (tied with Gordon for third among rookies) and 5.1 apg (second among rookies) for a team that started slowly but now has a marginally better winning percentage than last year.

Mayo's early scoring exploits probably left a lingering impression that will garner him some Rookie of the Year votes but Rose is the most deserving candidate. It will be interesting to see if the voters are savvy enough to appreciate the non-flashy but quite substantive contributions being made by Gasol, Love and Lopez.

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posted by David Friedman @ 6:45 AM

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Wednesday, April 01, 2009

"Flow," Basketball and Prince

Professor Mihaly Csikszentmihalyi has studied a phenomenon that he calls "flow": "The metaphor of flow is one that many people have used to describe the sense of effortless action they feel in moments that stand out as the best in their lives. Athletes refer to it as 'being in the zone,' religious mystics as being in 'ecstasy,' artists and musicians as 'aesthetic rapture.'"

Kobe Bryant and LeBron James experience "flow" when they play basketball at a higher level than anyone else currently does--not that they are the only players who experience "flow" but they are quintessential examples of it, whether you want to cite Bryant's 81 point game or James' 48 point outburst in game five versus the Pistons in 2007. When you watch someone who is the best at his craft perform you feel like that person is doing something that he was born to do, though of course it takes an enormous amount of "effortful study" to achieve what looks like effortless greatness. Tiger Woods stalking his prey on the back nine is another great example of "flow," as was Bobby Fischer slaying top grandmasters as if they were children.

In the classic Star Trek episode "The City on the Edge of Forever," Edith Keeler, who does not know that Captain Kirk and Mr. Spock are from the future but suspects that they are not who they say they are, says to Kirk and Spock that they seem to be "out of place" in her world. Spock asks her where she "would estimate we belong" and she replies, "You--at his side, as if you've always been there and always will." Keeler's words--"as if you've always been there and always will"--are an apt description of the "flow" experience, of someone doing exactly what he enjoys doing and was meant to do; Kirk and Spock made a perfect team, as Keeler noted when she observed that even when Spock did not address Kirk as "Captain" it was as if he had said it. Although Scottie Pippen proved to be a fine soloist in 1994--finishing third in MVP voting--after Michael Jordan temporarily retired, when Pippen played alongside Jordan it seemed as if he had "always been there and always will" be there because their games and skill sets blended so perfectly.

Actually, that Star Trek episode is also an example of "flow" in the sense that it was based on a masterfully crafted, award winning screenplay by Harlan Ellison, a screenplay that Ellison proudly proclaimed was so well written that even though he disagreed with changes that the show's producers made to his story they still could not destroy it (a great writer's ego is no less magnificent than the ego of a great athlete). Ellison's story powerfully examined the themes of destiny, friendship, loyalty and the danger of being ahead of one's time; Keeler envisioned a world of peace and cooperation but her pacifist views--if enacted into government policy at the time of the rise of Hitler--could have led to a victory for the Nazis (in one version of history portrayed in that episode, she led a pacifist movement that delayed America's entry into World War II, providing the Nazis enough time to develop the atomic bomb and conquer the world). As Spock said to Kirk, "She was right, but at the wrong time."

I have always enjoyed following the careers of performers who are able to achieve a "flow" state, particularly when they overcome or circumvent traditional norms. For instance, George Lucas used the money and influence that he gained from making "American Graffiti" to get the backing to film "Star Wars" and then he earned enough from "Star Wars" to achieve complete freedom from the Hollywood studio system, whereupon he removed himself from the mainstream bureaucracy of the film world and created his movies on his terms. Needless to say, most people do not have the necessary vision, courage and persistence to pull that off.

Prince has accomplished a similar feat in the music industry. He went from being a wunderkind at Warner Brothers who wrote, produced, delivered vocals and performed on an astounding variety of musical instruments to being a completely independent artist who dictates his own terms to record labels and distributors. Along the way, he received scorn for scrawling the word "slave" on his face and changing his name to an unpronounceable symbol but there was a method to his seeming madness: Warner Brothers wanted to control when and how he would distribute his music, while the incredibly prolific Prince simply wanted to release everything to the public as soon as he created it, whether or not this supposedly oversaturated the market. Since Warner Brothers owned his name (in a performing sense), Prince felt like a "slave" because he could not put his music out as Prince--so he circumvented the system with his "name change" until his Warner Brothers contract expired, whereupon he reclaimed his name and took total control over his music. Now he releases his music whenever and however he wants to, including his Planet Earth CD that he arranged to be given away with a newspaper in Great Britain in order to promote a series of concerts; in one fell swoop, Prince made a small fortune (he was paid in advance by the newspaper), sold out most of his appearances instantly and irritated Sony BMG, the corporate giant that was supposed to distribute the CD to retailers: for a nonconformist genius, it is hard to imagine a better day than that!

Prince's new three CD set titled LOtUSFLOW3R dropped on Sunday exclusively at Target and he promoted it by performing for three straight nights last week on the "Tonight Show With Jay Leno." For his finale on Friday, Prince sang "Feel Good, Feel Better, Feel Wonderful." I know that Prince is a big hoops fan and I swear that one verse of that song is supposed to represent what Kobe Bryant was thinking a few years back when he played with Kwame Brown: "I just can't recall what the ---- I was thinking when I threw you the ball/It hit three bystanders after you touched it/Now they want to sue me." Of course, Prince did not utter the "----" part because he has transitioned into a no profanity stage of his career after becoming notorious for some of his raunchy lyrics; it is interesting to observe the evolution of his efforts to balance the spiritual and carnal aspects of his personality, particularly because so many artists have struggled greatly with that dichotomy.

Prince dictated the format of his "Tonight Show" appearance, mainly that he would not be interviewed but instead would go straight into his performance after a brief introduction by Leno. The coolest thing about Prince--other than the amazing width and breadth of his musical talent--is that he has forged a path that enables him to uncompromisingly create his art and to share it with the world on his terms. If he does not want to sit on a couch and banter with a talk show host about banal topics then he simply won't do it; Prince knows that he is talented enough to merit being on the "Tonight Show" doing what he does best and he will not compromise anything to get what he deserves. You can bet that Prince would not have lost any sleep if the show's producers had rejected his terms; he simply would have gone ahead with his other plans and it would have been their loss, not his.

A lyric from Prince's new song "Ol' Skool Company" not only sums up the sad state of the music business but also is an apt description of the sad state of the writing business as well: "The songs we sang used to mean something/Now every other one's just mean." Prince often laments the state of the world and the state of the music business but he is not just some cranky old guy talking about the good old days--he still possesses the full range of his talents and when he brags about producing real music by real musicians that is not false bravado.

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posted by David Friedman @ 11:16 PM

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Numbers Adding Up Quite Nicely for Cavs

Like Michael Jordan and Kobe Bryant before him, LeBron James has relentlessly tackled the few weaknesses in his game; less than a month ago I referred to what I called James' "short 'to do list'" coming into this season, namely to improve his free throw shooting, his defense and his perimeter shot. James has made great strides in the first two areas and has made progress with this three point shooting, though his midrange jumper still needs some work.

James' individual improvement, the addition of All-Star Mo Williams and the great defense played on a nightly basis by a deep, talented roster have enabled the Cavs to transform what was once a close race for the number one overall seed into a decided runaway, as I explain in my newest article for CavsNews.com (6/17/15 edit: the link to CavsNews.com no longer works, so I have posted the original article below):


The most important number for the Cavs is their league leading 61-13 record, a mark that all but assures that they will have home court advantage throughout this year’s playoffs (barring an unimaginable collapse in the final eight games). However, there are some other numbers that are also quite impressive and that bode well for the team as LeBron James and company attempt to reach the NBA Finals for the second time in three years and try to win the franchise’s first championship (not to mention Cleveland’s first major professional sports title since the Browns ruled the NFL in 1964).

The Cavs own a 36-1 home record, so if they win their last four games at the Q they will tie the mark for the best home record in NBA history, set by the NBA Champion Boston Celtics in 1986. In those 37 home games, the Cavs have outscored their opponents by 14.3 ppg and held them to .414 field goal shooting. Although some pundits question Cleveland’s ability to win on the road in the playoffs—they apparently are unaware of LeBron James’ game five exploits versus Detroit in 2007 or the fact that in the past three years the Cavs have won 10 road playoff games—the Cavs own the league’s third best road record (25-12), ranking just behind the Lakers and Magic in that category. The Cavs are certainly capable of winning at least one road game in any playoff series, which would mean that their opponents would then have to beat the Cavs twice at the Q in order to advance.

The Lakers held the top spot in the NBA for longer than any other team this season but the Cavs roared past them by going 16-1 in March, tying the league record for most wins in a calendar month. The Cavs are currently riding a 13 game winning streak, the longest in franchise history. While the Cavs are peaking heading into the playoffs, last year’s NBA Finalists are not doing nearly as well. The Lakers went 10-5 in March, though to be fair it must be noted that they played 11 games on the road, closing out the month with the first six games of a season-long seven game East Coast swing. The injury-riddled Celtics went 9-7 in March; it is not clear when defensive anchor Kevin Garnett will be fully healthy and the Celtics hardly strengthened their bench by signing point guard Stephon Marbury, who has averaged just 3.2 ppg on .314 field goal shooting since joining the team. Although the Orlando Magic are certainly closing the season on a strong note (12-2 in March, including their current six game winning streak), considering their lack of deep playoff experience it is difficult to believe that they would beat the Cavs in a seven game series.

The Cavs lead the NBA in points allowed (90.9 ppg) and point differential (9.4 ppg) while ranking a close second to the Celtics in defensive field goal percentage (.429). LeBron James attracts a lot of media attention for his scoring and passing—and he fully deserves the praise that he is receiving—but many people are missing the important fact that the Cavs are a dominant defensive team. Of course, James plays a big role in Cleveland’s defense, ranking second on the team in blocked shots and sixth in the league in steals. Those numbers only tell part of the story, though; like many young players, when James first came into the league, he did not understand how to play effective defense either in a one on one sense or from a team defensive standpoint—but now he understands both concepts very well, he accepts the challenge of guarding the other team’s best player on key possessions and he sets a tone that makes it clear to everyone on the team that defense is a top priority. He certainly deserves to be placed on the All-Defensive Team this season.

Last month, I wrote that LeBron James "had a short 'to do list' prior to this season." He has obviously made great strides on defense and he is shooting a career-high .770 from the free throw line. The third item on the list was his perimeter shooting. James is shooting .336 from three point range this year, the second best percentage of his career, but after hovering around the .300 mark until January he shot .400 from long distance in February and .386 in March. At this point, his three point shooting is adequate and certainly seems to be continuing to improve. The one and only weakness remaining in his game is his midrange shot. As I mentioned in the above article, the NBA.com “Hot Spots” charts list red hot, lukewarm and cold zones; James’ only hot zone is still the paint, while he is cold in the midrange areas immediately on either side of the paint. He is actually cold on the entire right side of the court, which may be partially the result of a smaller sample size since he shoots much more frequently from the left side of the court and the top of the key area.

The defensive game plan for elite teams in a seven game series versus Cleveland will continue to be to build a wall around the paint to keep James out and thus try to force him to shoot contested two point jump shots in the midrange area. If James can either make a reasonable percentage of those shots and/or wear down the opposing team by bulling his way into the paint despite their best efforts to contain him, then there is likely no way to beat the Cavs in a playoff series, because they have proven that they will rebound and defend on a nightly basis and their role players have demonstrated that they can consistently be at least adequately productive. Also, the important addition of Mo Williams means that the Cavs have an All-Star level player who can create shots for himself and others; he is a very accurate outside shooter, so his presence will force the defense to spread out and make it much more difficult to keep James out of the paint.

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posted by David Friedman @ 3:58 PM

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Kobe Bryant on Designing Shoes, Winning Championships

Kobe Bryant made some very interesting statements in recent interviews with Sole Collector magazine and USA TODAY.

The Sole Collector interview focuses on Bryant's role in designing the Zoom Kobe IV, his newest Nike shoe. I'm not a "shoe guru" but I think that Michael Jordan was probably the first basketball player who really got involved in the design process of his signature shoes (as opposed to simply cashing the checks for putting his name on them and doing some advertisements, which is what I believe that most players prior to Jordan did). However, my understanding is that Jordan's input had at least as much--if not more--to do with the look and style of the shoe as it did with the actual functioning of the shoe. In contrast, Bryant is completely focused on how well his shoe functions; when asked "How much importance do you place on your shoe looking good in a casual settting?" Bryant replies, "Actually, none. That's never even something that's crossed my brain. This shoe I personally wanted to play in. Whether it (works) well off the court or not, is really irrelevant to me at the time." Bryant also says, "When it comes to the color schemes, I tell the designers, 'You guys just go have a good time and knock yourselves out.'"

Interviewer Nick DePaula writes, "Rarely has an athlete been so involved in the back story of his shoes, calling out specific inspirations and needs in his footwear as he looks to improve not only the playability of his shoes every year, but also his performance on the basketball court as he seeks out an NBA championship every season. His sneakers are a crucial component to that quest. It was at Kobe's request that the Zoom Kobe IV be made as a low-top in order to help with his range of motion, help reduce weight and also help the shoes become part of him, ridding him of any worry or distraction that might prevent him from making that lightning-quick first step as he splits a pair of defenders and heads right towards the rim. He also has been closely involved in the development of every one of his shoes, and it's his attention to detail and close working relationship with Nike Designer Eric Avar that allow the two to continue to push the envelope of design and the boundaries of performance."

Bryant lists two reasons why he wanted his new shoe to be a low-top: "One is, I wanted the foot to move comfortably. I felt like hi-tops at times can be a little bit restricting of your movement. Also, I wanted to decrease weight. I wanted to cut the shoe (in height), make it lighter, make it sleeker, and we were able to accomplish both of those things."

Bryant played soccer growing up in Italy. Of course, soccer players play in low-tops all of the time, so Bryant has never bought the idea that you have to wear hi-tops to play basketball: "I just wanted to have better range and flexibility within the ankle and be able to move and cut and not feel like that movement is restricted. I think how the soccer background came into play is understanding how much stress you put on your ankles and how hard you play the game. In soccer, you can still wear low-tops, and they put more stress on their ankles than we do, but they can still wear low-tops. So I think you need a confidence to be able to push the boundaries a little bit."

Matt Nurse, a Senior Researcher at the Nike Sports Research Lab, confirms Bryant's belief that playing basketball in low-tops is no more risky for the ankles than playing in hi-tops. Nurse says that ankle injuries are inevitable if you play basketball long enough and that neither taping the ankles nor wearing hi-tops offers any additional protection; according to Nurse, the only thing scientifically proven to offer some protection is strengthening the ankles by using a training device called a "wobble board" (presumably, analogous strengthening techniques would also help but the point is that the way that the ankle is structurally put together renders it very difficult to protect the ankle via external wrappings).

Bryant's design idea for the shoe was actually inspired in part from a scene in one of the Spiderman movies: "It's that scene in the movie where he's trying to pry it (the suit) off of him and he can't get it off of him because now it's part of him. And that's how I want the shoe to be. I want the shoe to be part of my foot. I don't want it to be separate. I don't want it to be my foot and the shoe. I want the shoe and the foot to mesh together."

Bryant was wearing Zoom Kobe I shoes when he had his famous 81 point game versus Toronto. The Zoom Kobe I had a different design philosophy than the new Zoom Kobe IV, as Bryant explains: "Well, with the Zoom I, what I wanted to do was I wanted to have more cushioning. It was a season where I was coming off of some knee injuries and some things like that. So, we actually sacrificed some weight with this shoe for a lot more cushioning. As soon as you put that shoe on, you are going to see that it has a lot more cushion. A lot of power forwards and a lot of players that are bigger in stature enjoyed those shoes more than some of the others because it had a lot more cushion in them. Coming off of that shoe, I wanted to get back to the lighter-weight stuff."

As for his state of mind during the 81 point game, Bryant recalls, "I was just in--it was almost like a trance, where you're just relaxing and you're playing and everything is just flowing. You put a lot of work into the offseason, and everything is just clicking."

Everyone knows the burning desire that Bryant has to win more NBA titles but he has said that nothing tops winning the Olympic gold medal and Bryant stands by that statement: "Winning an Olympic gold is second to none and it's the most special moment you'll have as an athlete. Being on that stage and representing your country, there's just no greater honor." That is the way that most if not all athletes from outside of the United States feel about Olympic and FIBA competition but few American basketball players have expressed that sentiment so forcefully, let alone backed it up with such a scintillating clutch performance in the gold medal game.

Bryant has long been weary of answering questions about the time that he spent playing alongside Shaquille O'Neal but this is what he told USA TODAY's Chris Colston: "I hear people say, 'Kobe has to prove he can win a title without Shaq.' Personally, I don't think that's true. The people who say Shaq would've won (the three championships from 2000 to 2002) without me, they're crazy. Those who think I would've won without him are crazy. That we both would've won without Derek Fisher, Robert Horry, Rick Fox and Horace Grant? Those people are crazy...I just want to just win it again. That's all I want. We were so close last year."

The Lakers went 10-5 in March but the Cleveland Cavaliers surpassed them in the race for the number one overall record in the league by going 16-1 in March, tying the NBA record for most victories in a calendar month. Getting home court advantage throughout the playoffs was one of the Lakers' preseason goals but Bryant is not fazed by the possibility of having to win on the road in the postseason: "In my years of experience, if you're going to be a champion, you should win on the road anywhere. The better team is going to advance, no matter where you play." While the Cavs have the best home record (36-1) in the NBA--and if they win out they will tie the 1986 Celtics for the best home record in one season in NBA history--it is worth remembering that the Lakers have the best road record (27-11) in the league this season and that they are the only visiting team to defeat the Cavs in Quicken Loans Arena this year.

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posted by David Friedman @ 6:11 AM

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