Lakers Dominate Paint, Win 110-100 to Take 3-1 Lead Versus Rockets

The L.A. Lakers outrebounded the Houston Rockets 52-26, shot .586 from inside the three point line, outscored the Rockets 62-24 in the paint, and built a 23 point lead before settling for a 110-100 victory in game four of the Western Conference semifinals. The Lakers are up 3-1, and can advance to the Western Conference Finals with a win on Saturday night. Anthony Davis led the Lakers with 29 points on 10-18 field goal shooting, adding 12 rebounds and five assists. LeBron James contributed 16 points, a game-high 15 rebounds, and a team-high nine assists.

Russell Westbrook led the Rockets with 25 points on 8-16 field goal shooting (including 3-8 from three point range), but that was not enough to overcome James Harden's predictable playoff choking. Harden shot 2-11 from the field (including 1-6 from three point range) en route to perhaps the least least impactful 21 point game in NBA playoff history; through a combination of his gimmicks and some careless fouls by the Lakers, Harden was given 20 free throw attempts, and he converted 16 of them.

Usually, Harden saves his 2-11 field goal shooting performances for elimination games. Harden shot 2-11 from the field and scored 14 points when the Rockets lost 104-90 to the Golden State Warriors in game five of the 2015 Western Conference Finals; Harden also set the all-time NBA single game playoff record with 12 turnovers in that contest. Then, he shot 2-11 from the field and scored 10 points when the Rockets lost 114-75 to the San Antonio Spurs in game six of the 2017 Western Conference semifinals.

There are people who can keep a straight face while saying that 21 points on 11 field goal attempts is efficient, but anyone who understands basketball realizes how ridiculous it is to term this choke job by Harden as "efficient." Harden shot 1-7 from the field (including 0-3 from three point range) in the first half as the Lakers built a huge lead that they never relinquished. Casual fans think that the NBA is a fourth quarter league, and they focus a lot of attention on fourth quarter statistics, but those who understand the NBA realize that the NBA is often a first quarter league; big comebacks are rare but often remembered, while most games are decided by the team that sets the tone from the start.

Harden is not capable of consistently being efficient and productive when it matters most. Every year in the playoffs, he has enough talent around him to advance--if he were really as great as he is supposed to be--and every year he fails to step up. If Harden had authored an MVP-level performance then this series would have been tied 2-2. Harden has had a few big playoff games in his career, but most of the time when there is a chance to make a positive difference in the outcome of the series he disappears.

Unless they are ignorant or willfully delusional, even the most ardent Harden advocates must admit that Harden is not an elite player, no matter how many regular season records he sets, and no matter how many awards he receives. The Daryl Morey analytics-centric offense that the Rockets have built around Harden is not a championship caliber offense. There is no denying or excusing the yawning gap between the gimmicky way that Harden piles up regular season points and his consistent inability to produce when it matters most against elite competition in the playoffs.

Morey has been preaching the same nonsense since 2007, he has had Harden as his "foundational player" since 2012, and he has nothing tangible to show for all of his arrogant bleating about how he knows more about basketball than the rest of us. Rarely, if ever, has a general manager or executive promised so much, delivered so little, and kept his job for so long. Morey says foolish things--such as stating that James Harden is a better scorer than Michael Jordan--and the media gives him a pass instead of calling him out.

The Lakers led 57-41 at halftime, and had held the Rockets to 79 points in the previous four quarters. This is not a fluke or a coincidence. This lack of production and efficiency is predictable; I predicted it before this series, and I have predicted it before every series in which Harden's Rockets faced a legitimate championship contender: Harden may have one or two big games, but when the chips are down he folds and his team's high-variance offense falls apart. We have eight years of evidence, and yet so many people still pretend that Harden is an elite player. Harden is a more durable, physically stronger version of Gilbert Arenas. The scoring titles and media-given accolades mean that Harden is a lock for the Hall of Fame, but comparing Harden to elite players like LeBron James and Kawhi Leonard--let alone Kobe Bryant or Michael Jordan--is ridiculous. While it is true that Giannis Antetokounmpo has not yet had more playoff success than Harden, Antetokounmpo is younger and bigger than Harden, in addition to already being a great two-way player. Antetokounmpo has work to do, but I would take him over Harden any day of the week.

Houston's collapse during game four versus the Lakers is typical of what we have seen for years from Harden and the Rockets. During a 16 minute stretch from near the end of the first quarter into the early portion of the third quarter, the Rockets shot 4-20 from the field as the Lakers outscored them 41-23. "There is small ball, and then there is absurdity," TNT's Kenny Smith said after the game, referring to Houston trotting out a 6-6 and under lineup versus a Lakers team that has great players who are big but actually can play small ball better than the Rockets do: LeBron James and Anthony Davis can beat you in the paint and outside the paint. As I explained in Efficiency Versus High Variance, "'Stat gurus' outsmart themselves when they value offensive efficiency over every other factor. They have determined that three pointers and free throws are the most efficient NBA shots. While that may be true mathematically, it is not true in a relevant way in the real world; there is value in trying to improve offensive efficiency, but there is also value in improving proficiency in other areas, including defense and rebounding."

You can predict what Houston Coach Mike D'Antoni will say after this kind of performance--we need to play with more energy, we will keep taking the same shots but next game we will make them--and you can predict what will happen: the Rockets will go down not with a bang, but with a whimper.

It is worth revisiting my assessment of James Harden when the Rockets acquired him in 2012. I asserted that Harden would not be worth a maximum value contract, and that he is best suited to being an All-Star contributor on a championship contender as opposed to the number one option: "Harden is a very good player but all of his weaknesses will be exposed in Houston if the Rockets expect him to be a franchise player. Harden is not an All-NBA First or Second Team caliber player. He is not someone who can draw double teams over the course of an 82 game season and then carry a team deep into the playoffs as the number one option. He is not Shaquille O'Neal, Tim Duncan, Kobe Bryant or LeBron James." I added that Harden is the kind of player who is overrated by "stat gurus" who do not consider the context in which a player puts up his numbers; there is a difference between being an "efficient" second or third option as opposed to being the number one option: there is a qualitative difference between Kobe Bryant and Pau Gasol, and between Tim Duncan and Manu Ginobili.

I underestimated Harden's physical strength and his durability, and I did not anticipate that NBA officials would so often fall for Harden's flopping and flailing (at least during the regular season); thus, I was wrong from the standpoint that I did not expect Harden to win multiple scoring titles and to be selected not only as an All-NBA First Team player, but also as an MVP candidate and the 2018 MVP winner.

However, my prediction that Harden would not be capable of performing at an elite level in the playoffs was 100% correct, and that is the prediction that matters most: I was right that Harden "is not Shaquille O'Neal, Tim Duncan, Kobe Bryant or LeBron James" and I was right that Harden is not the "foundational player" that Morey declared Harden to be. I was right that Harden gave up the chance to be part of a potential dynasty alongside Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook in exchange for pursuing individual glory. I was right that Harden would accumulate individual recognition without achieving team success. The fact that Harden received more individual recognition than I expected does not invalidate my larger point that Harden sacrificed an opportunity to win championships had he been willing to accept the role for which he is best suited.