Thunder Storm Past Timberwolves 114-88 in Game One of the Western Conference Finals

The Oklahoma City Thunder are not infallible, but they may be unbeatable--at least in a seven game series. The Minnesota Timberwolves led the Thunder 47-38 with 1:14 remaining in the second quarter of game one of the Western Conference Finals, but the Thunder won 114-88; that is a 35 point swing in a little over 24 minutes. This game was very much a tale of two halves: the Timberwolves won the first half 48-44, and then the Thunder won the second half 70-40. The overall numbers told a story of Thunder domination, as the Thunder outscored the Timberwolves 54-20 in the paint, 31-10 in points off of turnovers, and 12-0 in fast break points. The Thunder shot 41-82 (.500) from the field while holding the Timberwolves to 29-83 (.349) field goal shooting. 

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander personified how the Thunder performed: he scored 11 first half points on 2-13 field goal shooting, and then poured in 20 second half points on 8-14 field goal shooting. He ended up with a game-high 31 points on 10-27 field goal shooting along with a game-high nine assists plus five rebounds and three steals. A "stat guru" may not understand why not all 10-27 shooting performances are created equal, but there is a difference between forcing shots/taking bad shots and missing good shots before getting into a rhythm. It is also worth emphasizing that Gilgeous-Alexander attempted 14 free throws and just four three pointers; he is a master of the supposedly inefficient midrange game, which is the area that Michael Jordan and Kobe Bryant dominated en route to winning six championships and five championships respectively. In the playoffs, a star player cannot always get to the hoop and he should not rely too heavily on high variance three point shooting: the midrange area is very important for winning playoff games.

Gilgeous-Alexander's All-Star sidekick Jalen Williams contributed 19 points, eight rebounds, five assists, and five steals. Chet Holmgren (15 points on 6-9 field goal shooting, seven rebounds, two blocked shots) and Isaiah Hartenstein (12 points on 6-8 field goal shooting, five rebounds) held up well versus Minnesota's big and aggressive frontcourt. Cason Wallace (three points, seven assists), Alex Caruso (nine points), and Isaiah Joe (seven points, eight rebounds) made solid contributions off of the bench.

Julius Randle scored 20 first half points on 6-8 field goal shooting (including 5-6 from beyond the arc), but in the second half the Thunder ran him off of the three point line (he did not attempt even one second half trey) while holding him to eight points on 3-5 field goal shooting. His 28 points on 9-13 field goal shooting look more "efficient" than Gilgeous-Alexander's, but Bill Russell once sagely noted that when a player scores can be as important as how much he scores; he was referring specifically to Julius Erving's uncanny ability to score timely baskets, but this wisdom has broader applications, even though "stat gurus" will insist that a basket scored in the first minute of a game, a basket scored at the end of a 20 point blowout, and a basket scored in the closing seconds of a game when trailing by one point all have the same value. If you played the game or even just understand the game at anything more than the most basic level then you know that all baskets don't have the same value, and you know that there are many players who will happily attempt the first two kinds of shots but want no part of attempting a shot when trailing in the closing seconds of a game.

Anthony Edwards was Minnesota's only other double figure scorer (18 points on 5-13 field goal shooting, game-high nine rebounds), and after the game he candidly admitted that he did not shoot the ball often enough. From a percentage standpoint, Edwards' 5-13 field goal shooting and Gilgeous-Alexander's 10-27 field goal shooting are virtually identical, but the reality of championship level basketball is that a team's star player has an obligation to be productive even more so than he has an obligation to be "efficient." Edwards is right that he should have shot more often, and he deserves credit for admitting that, as opposed to some stars who use passive/aggressive language to deflect attention away from their flawed performances and toward their teammates' real or imagined shortcomings. It is the star's responsibility to lead the way; that is why the stars get the big bucks and most of the credit when things go well. 

The Timberwolves are at their best when they attack the paint, but they played an out of character game by attempting 51 three point shots and only 32 two point shots; such a drastic imbalance is not a recipe for success for any team, and particularly not a team whose strength is its size and strength. The Timberwolves went small in the fourth quarter--center Rudy Gobert did not play at all--and the Thunder outscored them, 38-22. Going small against a team that feeds off of turnovers and open court play did not go well and will not go well. The simple fact is that teams that play small ball do not win NBA titles. Even the Golden State Warriors teams that won four NBA titles from 2015-22 had serviceable big men who played consistent rotation minutes, not to mention that the "small forward" on two of their championship teams is actually seven feet tall.

It is not likely--although not impossible--that the Thunder will win every game by double digit margins, but it seems improbable that any team in the NBA can win four games out of seven versus the Thunder. Their season-long statistical profile screams "NBA Champion," and the eye test suggests that only one of the great teams from the past could withstand the combination of the Thunder's relentless defensive pressure and efficient offensive execution that does not rely on jacking up three pointers.