20 Second Timeout

Thoughts About Team USA's Performance in the USA Basketball Showcase

Team USA went 5-0 in the USA Basketball Showcase in preparation for the 2024 Olympics, but Team USA was far from dominant, and needed late rallies to survive versus South Sudan and Germany. Although many commentators argue that it is important for Team USA to be stocked with three point shooters, history has shown that defending the three point line--and perimeter defense in general--is much more critical for Team USA to be successful. Team USA does not typically have a great halfcourt offense, so it is essential for Team USA to create pressure on the perimeter to force turnovers and low percentage shots, and then to score easy baskets in transition. Team USA's depth becomes a big advantage if Team USA pushes the pace to wear down opposing teams that have some talent at the top of their roster but lack depth.

Team USA opened the USA Basketball Showcase with an 86-72 win versus Canada. The most notable thing about that game is that Canada's starting lineup of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jamal Murray, Dwight Powell, Dillon Brooks, and R.J. Barrett held their own against Team USA's starting lineup of Stephen Curry, Jrue Holiday, Joel Embiid, LeBron James, and Devin Booker. Team USA's top five bench players--Anthony Davis, Anthony Edwards, Tyrese Haliburton, Jayson Tatum, and Bam Adebayo--each had double digit plus/minus numbers, while three of the five starters had negative plus/minus numbers. Plus/minus numbers can be noisy in small sample sizes, but here they told an accurate story: Team USA's starters were sluggish, Canada led 21-14 at the end of the first quarter, and Team USA's bench turned the game around in the second quarter. 

In Team USA's 98-92 win versus Australia, Team USA's starters again struggled, and the bench again saved the day. This time, Anthony Edwards and Jayson Tatum started while Jrue Holiday and Devin Booker came off of the bench. Australia is fifth in the FIBA rankings with a roster featuring several players with NBA experience but no upper echelon NBA players.

Team USA improved to 3-0 by beating Serbia, 105-79. Serbia is fourth in the FIBA rankings, led by three-time NBA regular season MVP Nikola Jokic supported by a talented cast of non-NBA players. Jokic struggled versus Team USA, finishing with just 16 points on 6-19 field goal shooting, and Team USA's depth again carried the day with four bench players registering plus/minus numbers of at least +21. 

Perhaps the easy win over Serbia made Team USA overconfident, because in the fourth game of the tour Team USA narrowly avoided the most embarrassing loss in USA Basketball history, escaping with a 101-100 victory over a South Sudan squad that is 33rd in the FIBA rankings. Team USA needed a dominant performance from 39 year old LeBron James--25 points on 10-14 field goal shooting in just 23 minutes, capped off by the game-winning layup with 8 seconds remaining. South Sudan managed two offensive rebounds and three field goal attempts in the final six seconds before Team USA escaped with the win.

It does not make sense to overreact to one game, let alone a game that does not count in the standings, but South Sudan's near upset of Team USA is not an isolated event; in the past two decades, Team USA has suffered several humiliating and inexcusable losses to teams that, on paper, should have been cannon fodder, and this should give pause to anyone who lionizes today's NBA players while slandering the great players from previous eras. J.J. Redick mocked Bob Cousy while asserting that Kyrie Irving would have been perceived as a "wizard" had he played in the 1950s, but the reality is that a significant portion of Irving's so-called wizardry is a product of rules changes and lack of enforcement of rules; specifically, Irving and his contemporaries are permitted to travel and to palm the ball, and they are rewarded with free throw attempts after jumping into defenders. We are seeing in FIBA play that American players who are used to traveling, palming, and being rewarded with free throw attempts after jumping into defenders are not nearly as effective when they are not provided with such leeway.

Look at South Sudan's roster both in terms of individual player resumes--none of the players are currently on an NBA roster and only two have even minimal NBA experience--and skill set evaluations. Is South Sudan better than the 1950s Boston Celtics, let alone the 1986 Boston Celtics, the 1992 Dream Team or the 1996 Chicago Bulls? I would expect those four teams to each beat South Sudan by 20 points or more, because those teams were fundamentally sound, and they consistently played hard. 

It is easy to say that the game versus South Sudan was an exhibition contest and that Team USA did not play hard--but isn't the point of the exhibition schedule to develop the necessary habits and mindset to win the gold medal? I could understand Team USA letting up a little after building a 20 or 30 point lead, but there is no excuse for Team USA to trail for most of the game--by double digits at times--and need heroics from James to survive.

In the wake of the near disaster versus South Sudan, Team USA barely held off Germany, 92-88. For the second game in a row, Team USA needed James to save the day, this time with 20 points on 8-11 field goal shooting, including Team USA's last five points after Germany cut Team USA's lead to 87-84 with 1:43 remaining. Germany is third in the FIBA rankings, and Germany beat Team USA last year. Here is what I wrote after Germany upset Team USA in the 2023 FIBA World Cup:

From an individual talent standpoint, there is no German player who would start for Team USA, and few if any German players who would have even been selected for the Team USA roster had they been American citizens, so USA Basketball has to take a long, hard look not only at roster composition but also coaching philosophies. Should the Team USA roster be constructed based primarily on individual talent, or on actually putting together a group of players who can collectively play championship-caliber basketball in FIBA events? Is Team USA's coaching staff putting enough emphasis on the importance of perimeter defense, and is the roster comprised of players who grasp and implement that message? Two of the best Team USA squads ever--the 1992 Dream Team and the 2008 Redeem Team--featured guards/wing players who applied tremendous defensive pressure on the perimeter, primarily Michael Jordan and Scottie Pippen in 1992 and Kobe Bryant and Jason Kidd in 2008.  

The current version of Team USA is not good enough at pressuring ballhandlers, and is not disciplined enough in terms of getting back on defense and making sure that every shot is contested. It is safe to say that the 1992 U.S. team and the 2008 U.S. team would beat this year's Lithuania team and this year's Germany team by more than 20 points each, so while it is true that other countries have improved at basketball it is also undeniably true that Team USA has regressed from both a talent standpoint and an execution standpoint. I understand that the 2023 FIBA World Cup squad is not our "A" Team, but even our "B" Team should beat Lithuania and Germany, because those squads are not as good as the truly great FIBA teams from outside the United States such as Argentina's squads led by Manu Ginobili and Spain's teams led by Pau Gasol--and it must be noted that many other countries also sent their "B" Team, as Nikola Jokic and Giannis Antetokounmpo are just the two most prominent of many non-American players who skipped the 2023 World Cup. 

The bottom line is that we have seen this story before: Team USA losing to less talented teams because Team USA played awful defense.

Team USA's 2023 loss to Germany was brushed off by some commentators because Team USA had a "B" team roster--but in 2024 Team USA has an "A" team roster and still only beat Germany by four points. Team USA's 2023 loss to Germany echoed Team USA's 2021 loss to France in the Olympics, when it was glaringly evident how much Team USA missed the perimeter defensive pressure provided by Kobe Bryant as Team USA won gold medals in the Olympics in 2008 and 2012:

Bryant was the difference maker for Team USA in the 2008 Olympics, and Kidd retired with a perfect record in FIBA play. There is a reason that Team USA's 2004 squad with young perimeter players LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, Carmelo Anthony, Allen Iverson, and Stephon Marbury did not win gold, but the 2008 and 2012 squads won gold after adding Bryant and Kidd. When Team USA loses in FIBA play, poor perimeter defense is usually a main culprit, resulting in wide open three pointers and/or easy cuts to the hoop. It is not essential for Team USA to make a lot of three pointers--Team USA can win with pressure defense, fast break points, and points in the paint--but it is essential that Team USA make opposing guards uncomfortable and ineffective. 

Team USA would not have lost to France with prime Kobe Bryant guarding Evan Fournier. Period. 

Another factor is that Team USA always has to make adjustments to the differences between the NBA game and the FIBA game. FIBA games are only 40 minutes long instead of 48 minutes long, the FIBA three point line is closer to the hoop, goaltending is permitted under FIBA rules after the ball hits the rim, there are fewer timeouts in FIBA, in FIBA timeouts can only be called by the coach, in FIBA a player is disqualified after five fouls (instead of six in the NBA), and in FIBA a technical foul also counts as a personal foul.

Also, NBA officiating has always differed from FIBA officiating, but the differences are now more pronounced than ever; in the NBA, offensive players can get away with murder on the perimeter--including traveling, carrying, and running over defenders--while any defender who is in close proximity to an offensive player (especially an offensive player who is viewed as a star) is liable to be whistled for a foul. In the loss to France, five Team USA players had more fouls than field goals made! Durant, Booker, Lillard, and the other NBA All-Stars who are big time scorers are used to not only attempting a lot of free throws per game but they are also used to (1) not being whistled for fouls, and (2) having a lot of space to operate because defenders are wary of being whistled for fouls that not only put them in foul trouble but also put their team in the penalty.

Team USA failed to win a medal in the 2023 FIBA World Cup after losing to Canada in the bronze medal game, and Team USA won the gold medal in the Olympics in 2021, avenging the opening game loss to France. It is facile to say that the world has caught up with Team USA, but it may be more accurate to say that Team USA has regressed at least as much as the world has progressed. American players have lost touch with basketball fundamentals, they have become accustomed to officiating that coddles them on offense, and they are not used to consistently having to put forth effort defensively. 

Due to injury, Kevin Durant did not play during the USA Basketball Showcase, but a roster featuring James, Curry, Embiid, Tatum, Edwards, Davis, and other big-name players should not be dependent on adding yet another superstar in order to beat Australia, Canada, Germany, or Serbia, let alone South Sudan.

It is becoming evident that the current level of NBA basketball is not as good advertised, and this is particularly true regarding U.S. born NBA players. Unless one is delusional enough to think that a team led by Franz Wagner and Dennis Schroder would pose any threat to the Jordan-Pippen Bulls, the Bird-McHale-Parish Celtics, or the Russell-Cousy Celtics, one must concede that the current NBA stars--individually and collectively--are not quite as great as the hype suggests. It is one thing for Redick to call Irving a "wizard," but does he think that Wagner and Schroder are "wizards"? Does he think that South Sudan has a roster full of "wizards"? Today's NBA stars put up gaudy numbers versus each other in a controlled environment in which "entertainment"--punctuated by slam dunks and three pointers, which are favored by both "stat gurus" and the league's media partners who feature dunks and treys in highlight packages--is favored over basketball fundamentals; remove those stars from that controlled environment, and they often do not look quite so great. This is not an overreaction to one game or one exhibition tour; this is analysis based on a sample size of over 20 years of Team USA's play in FIBA events, coinciding with the NBA's shift toward highlighting offense and handcuffing defense.

It would be shocking on paper if the 2024 Team USA squad headlined by LeBron James, Stephen Curry, and Joel Embiid fails to win Olympic gold, but the reality is that this team has displayed weaknesses that opposing teams can exploit. To be clear, I still expect Team USA to win Olympic gold, but I also expect that there will be at least one close call along the way--and when a team that is superior on paper lets the opposition hang around, an upset can happen.

Labels: 2024 Olympics, Joel Embiid, LeBron James, Stephen Curry, Team USA

posted by David Friedman @ 10:43 AM

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