I already provided my skeptical perspective about the NBA's in-season NBA Cup tournament.
I will add that I can see how young fans might be excited about the unique and colorful NBA Cup court designs and about watching their favorite players and
teams competing for a special trophy--but that excitement will dissipate
quickly unless the players and teams take the NBA Cup a lot more
seriously than many of them have taken the regular season recently. As a long-time basketball fan/historian, I hope that the NBA Cup will be successful in terms of featuring competitive basketball.
The NBA Cup began on Friday night in Milwaukee with the 2-2 Bucks hosting the 2-3 New York Knicks. NBA Cup games count both in the regular season standings and in terms of qualifying for the NBA Cup tournament in December; the only NBA Cup game which will not count in the regular season standings is the December 9 championship game, which will be a stand alone game just like the Play-In Tournament games are not counted as regular season games or playoff games.
The Bucks led most of the way but had to scramble after Jalen Brunson's three pointer put the Knicks ahead 103-101 with just 1:10 remaining in the fourth quarter; that proved to the Knicks' first--and only--second half lead, as Damian Lillard answered with a three pointer followed by a conventional three point play and the Bucks preserved the win by making three out of four free throws in the final 18 seconds.
Lillard led the Bucks with 30 points on 7-15 field goal shooting. He scored 15 fourth quarter points and did not commit a turnover in the final stanza. Antetokounmpo added 22 points, eight rebounds, and six assists. He had a game-high seven turnovers, and a game-high +13 plus/minus number; Lillard's plus/minus number (+2) ranked sixth on the team. Plus/minus numbers in small sample sizes should generally be taken with a grain of salt, but it is fair to say that the way that Lillard plays--often shooting long three pointers, and often not playing much defense--is not typically the way that championship players play, notwithstanding his proven ability to win individual games with his clutch shooting. Lillard scored 21.3 ppg on .400 field goal shooting in his first four games as a Buck. Last season, Antetokounmpo averaged 31.3 ppg on 20.3 field goal attempts per game, but through the first four games this season he averaged 24.5 ppg on 16.8 field goal attempts per game. It should not take a "stat guru" or mathematical genius to figure out that taking shots away from an efficient Antetokounmpo who attacks the paint to give those shots to an undersized Lillard who shoots logo three pointers is not a recipe for creating an optimally efficient offense. If Lillard is as great and unselfish as he is supposed to be, then it should not be a problem for the Bucks to run a two-man game with Antetokounmpo and Lillard that generates (1) easy shots for Antetokounmpo in the paint, (2) open shots for Lillard closer than 30 feet from the hoop, and (3) open shots for their teammates if the opponent denies the first two options.
Brunson poured in a game-high 45 points on 17-30 field goal shooting. He had a +2 plus/minus number in a game that his team lost by five points. Quentin Grimes (17 points on 6-11 field goal shooting) and Immanuel Quickley (14 points on 5-10 field goal shooting) played well, but Julius Randle has become the least efficient volume scorer in the NBA: he finished with 16 points on 5-20 field goal shooting, and that is just not good enough even though his floor game was excellent (12 rebounds, team-high tying five assists, just one turnover in 39 minutes). The Knicks dominated the larger Bucks 56-41 on the boards, and they outscored the Bucks 59-54 in the second half. If Randle had been mediocre instead of terrible then the Knicks would have won.
A 110-105 victory over a less than impressive Knicks team should be nothing special for a team with championship aspirations, but the Bucks need every win they can get because the Damian Lillard honeymoon did not last long in Milwaukee. Lillard poured in 39 points in an opening night win versus the Philadelphia 76ers, but the Bucks lost two of their next three games. Double digit losses to the non-contending Hawks and Raptors sandwiched around a win versus the thus-far lethargic Heat hardly inspire confidence, particularly considering that in this admittedly small sample size of games the Bucks have slipped from being an elite defensive team last season to being an atrocious defensive team.
The Bucks made two major offseason changes: they fired Mike Budenholzer--who coached the Bucks to the 2021 championship with a defense-first mindset--and replaced him with former NBA player Adrian Griffin, who has never been a head coach at any level; they traded away all-around guard Jrue Holiday for Lillard, a prolific scorer who thinks defense is what surrounds the yard. Without Budenholzer and Holiday, it is not surprising that the Bucks are struggling to stay in front of perimeter players and that collectively they look confused defensively. I picked the Bucks to be the best team in the Eastern Conference not because of the Lillard trade but despite it; I am not convinced that the trade made the Bucks better, but I am convinced that a healthy Giannis Antetokounmpo is a special, generational player. The Bucks must make Antetokounmpo the focal point of the offense, and they must figure out how to hide Lillard's defensive deficiencies.