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Saturday, November 04, 2023

Milwaukee Holds Off New York 110-105 in the First NBA Cup Game

I already provided my skeptical perspective about the NBA's in-season NBA Cup tournament. I will add that I can see how young fans might be excited about the unique and colorful NBA Cup court designs and about watching their favorite players and teams competing for a special trophy--but that excitement will dissipate quickly unless the players and teams take the NBA Cup a lot more seriously than many of them have taken the regular season recently. As a long-time basketball fan/historian, I hope that the NBA Cup will be successful in terms of featuring competitive basketball.

The NBA Cup began on Friday night in Milwaukee with the 2-2 Bucks hosting the 2-3 New York Knicks. NBA Cup games count both in the regular season standings and in terms of qualifying for the NBA Cup tournament in December; the only NBA Cup game which will not count in the regular season standings is the December 9 championship game, which will be a stand alone game just like the Play-In Tournament games are not counted as regular season games or playoff games. 

The Bucks led most of the way but had to scramble after Jalen Brunson's three pointer put the Knicks ahead 103-101 with just 1:10 remaining in the fourth quarter; that proved to the Knicks' first--and only--second half lead, as Damian Lillard answered with a three pointer followed by a conventional three point play and the Bucks preserved the win by making three out of four free throws in the final 18 seconds.

Lillard led the Bucks with 30 points on 7-15 field goal shooting. He scored 15 fourth quarter points and did not commit a turnover in the final stanza. Antetokounmpo added 22 points, eight rebounds, and six assists. He had a game-high seven turnovers, and a game-high +13 plus/minus number; Lillard's plus/minus number (+2) ranked sixth on the team. Plus/minus numbers in small sample sizes should generally be taken with a grain of salt, but it is fair to say that the way that Lillard plays--often shooting long three pointers, and often not playing much defense--is not typically the way that championship players play, notwithstanding his proven ability to win individual games with his clutch shooting. Lillard scored 21.3 ppg on .400 field goal shooting in his first four games as a Buck. Last season, Antetokounmpo averaged 31.3 ppg on 20.3 field goal attempts per game, but through the first four games this season he averaged 24.5 ppg on 16.8 field goal attempts per game. It should not take a "stat guru" or mathematical genius to figure out that taking shots away from an efficient Antetokounmpo who attacks the paint to give those shots to an undersized Lillard who shoots logo three pointers is not a recipe for creating an optimally efficient offense. If Lillard is as great and unselfish as he is supposed to be, then it should not be a problem for the Bucks to run a two-man game with Antetokounmpo and Lillard that generates (1) easy shots for Antetokounmpo in the paint, (2) open shots for Lillard closer than 30 feet from the hoop, and (3) open shots for their teammates if the opponent denies the first two options. 

Brunson poured in a game-high 45 points on 17-30 field goal shooting. He had a +2 plus/minus number in a game that his team lost by five points. Quentin Grimes (17 points on 6-11 field goal shooting) and Immanuel Quickley (14 points on 5-10 field goal shooting) played well, but Julius Randle has become the least efficient volume scorer in the NBA: he finished with 16 points on 5-20 field goal shooting, and that is just not good enough even though his floor game was excellent (12 rebounds, team-high tying five assists, just one turnover in 39 minutes). The Knicks dominated the larger Bucks 56-41 on the boards, and they outscored the Bucks 59-54 in the second half. If Randle had been mediocre instead of terrible then the Knicks would have won.

A 110-105 victory over a less than impressive Knicks team should be nothing special for a team with championship aspirations, but the Bucks need every win they can get because the Damian Lillard honeymoon did not last long in Milwaukee. Lillard poured in 39 points in an opening night win versus the Philadelphia 76ers, but the Bucks lost two of their next three games. Double digit losses to the non-contending Hawks and Raptors sandwiched around a win versus the thus-far lethargic Heat hardly inspire confidence, particularly considering that in this admittedly small sample size of games the Bucks have slipped from being an elite defensive team last season to being an atrocious defensive team. 

The Bucks made two major offseason changes: they fired Mike Budenholzer--who coached the Bucks to the 2021 championship with a defense-first mindset--and replaced him with former NBA player Adrian Griffin, who has never been a head coach at any level; they traded away all-around guard Jrue Holiday for Lillard, a prolific scorer who thinks defense is what surrounds the yard. Without Budenholzer and Holiday, it is not surprising that the Bucks are struggling to stay in front of perimeter players and that collectively they look confused defensively. I picked the Bucks to be the best team in the Eastern Conference not because of the Lillard trade but despite it; I am not convinced that the trade made the Bucks better, but I am convinced that a healthy Giannis Antetokounmpo is a special, generational player. The Bucks must make Antetokounmpo the focal point of the offense, and they must figure out how to hide Lillard's defensive deficiencies.

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posted by David Friedman @ 12:20 AM

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Friday, November 03, 2023

Walter Davis: The Greyhound

When I think of Walter Davis--the six-time NBA All-Star who passed away on Thursday--the word that comes to mind is "smooth." Davis glided across the court with such grace and speed that he earned the nickname "The Greyhound." He had the perfect build for a versatile perimeter player--6-6, 195 pounds during his prime--much like Pantheon players Julius Erving, Michael Jordan, and Kobe Bryant. Davis was a very efficient and prolific scorer, averaging 18.9 ppg on .511 field goal shooting during his 15 season NBA career. He just missed joining the 20,000 point club, finishing with 19,521 points and ranking 18th on the NBA career scoring list/22nd on the ABA/NBA career scoring list when he retired in 1992.

Davis is one of the greatest players in the history of the prestigious North Carolina program, and he still ranks 10th in career Tar Heel scoring with 1863 points. Perhaps the most famous moment of Davis' college career happened during his freshman year in 1974, when he drained a 25 foot jump shot to cap off an eight point comeback in 17 seconds versus Duke and send the game to overtime, where the Tar Heels prevailed. Davis earned All-ACC honors twice, and he led North Carolina to the 1977 NCAA Championship, scoring a game-high 20 points in a 67-59 loss to Marquette. Davis is the uncle of current North Carolina head coach Hubert Davis, who averaged 8.2 ppg in a 12 season NBA career after a solid four years playing for North Carolina.

Walter Davis spent his first 11 NBA seasons with the Phoenix Suns, earning all of his six All-Star selections and both of his All-NBA Second Team selections (1978, 1979) during that time. Curry Kirkpatrick profiled rookie forwards Walter Davis, Marques Johnson, and Bernard King in the February 20, 1978 issue of Sports Illustrated. Kirkpatrick declared, "Walter Davis, Bernard King, and Marques Johnson may be the best athletes ever to come into the same professional sport at the same time at the same position." Johnson offered this assessment of how he and King stacked up versus Davis: "My game is inside and on the board, Bernard's is around the lanes, but Walter Davis' game is everywhere." During that historic 1977-78 season, future Hall of Famer (and 1985 scoring champion) Bernard King averaged 24.2 ppg (10th in the league), Johnson averaged 19.5 ppg, and Davis won the Rookie of the Year award after averaging 24.2 ppg (ninth in the league, just a few percentage points ahead of King) on .526 field goal shooting (10th in the league) as the Suns improved from 34-48 to 49-33. Davis finished fifth in regular season MVP voting. Johnson's Milwaukee Bucks--a Western Conference team at that time--beat Davis' Suns 2-0 in a first round mini-series during which Johnson averaged 28.5 ppg and 14.0 rpg while Davis averaged 25.0 ppg and 8.5 rpg.

Davis' scoring declined slightly in his second season (23.6 ppg, 10th in the league) but he increased his field goal percentage to .561 (seventh in the league), and he averaged 22.1 ppg on .520 field goal shooting in the playoffs as the Suns lost 4-3 to the eventual NBA champion Seattle Supersonics in the Western Conference Finals.

From 1978-80 Davis and Paul Westphal formed a tremendous Phoenix duo. Davis and Westphal each made the All-Star team in all three seasons. Davis made the All-NBA Second Team in 1978 and 1979, while Westphal earned All-NBA First Team honors in 1979 and 1980 and All-NBA Second Team honors in 1978. The Suns posted a 154-92 regular season record but did not advance past the Western Conference Finals. In 1980, the Suns traded Westphal to Seattle for Dennis Johnson, the 1979 NBA Finals MVP.

Davis made the All-Star team in 1981, but his numbers steadily declined in the early 1980s, and he did not make the All-Star team in 1982 or 1983. On February 25, 1983, Davis set an obscure but impressive NBA record by scoring his first 34 points without missing a shot from the field or the free throw line. Davis bounced back to average 20.0 ppg and make the All-Star team in 1984. He averaged 24.9 ppg on .535 field goal shooting during the 1984 playoffs, leading the Suns to the 1984 Western Conference Finals. Davis and the Lakers' Kareem Abdul-Jabbar tied for top scoring honors (23.8 ppg) in the Western Conference Finals, but the powerful Lakers won, 4-2. 

Davis voluntarily entered drug rehabilitation in December 1985 to treat his cocaine addiction. He averaged 21.8 ppg in 1985-86 but was not selected as an All-Star. Davis averaged 23.6 ppg (11th in the league) in 1986-87, earning his final All-Star selection. He signed with Denver as a free agent in 1988, and he remained a solid double figure scorer coming off of the bench for the next three seasons. Denver traded Davis to Portland in January 1991, and he averaged 6.1 ppg in 32 games for Portland. Davis signed with Denver as a free agent in November 1991, and he averaged 9.9 ppg in 46 games in his final NBA season.

At his peak, Davis could both slash to the hoop and dissect defenses with his deadly midrange jump shot that earned him the nickname "The Man With the Velvet Touch." His Phoenix teammate Alvan Adams once told NBA.com, "I don't remember a sweeter shot. Ray Allen's got a great shot. The Splash Brothers (Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson), too. He (Davis) was a feared shooter. The other team knew it, too. Walter was one of the great shooters in NBA history." Davis was an outstanding player in his era, and he would have been even more productive in today's game that emphasizes offense in general, and perimeter play in particular. Davis did not shoot many three pointers--few players did during those days--but there is no doubt that he could have extended his range to fit in with today's three point shooting explosion.

Davis began his career as a small forward, but then shifted over to guard because of his ballhandling, passing, and midrange shooting. Davis played in at least 75 games in six of his first seven seasons, and he played in at least 70 games in 10 of his 15 seasons. He is the Suns' all-time leading scorer with 15,666 points. The Suns retired his number 6 in 1994, and they also inducted him in the franchise's Ring of Honor. It is a shame that Davis' name is probably largely forgotten outside of North Carolina and Phoenix, because he was a productive and efficient player who was fun to watch and who made significant contributions to winning teams.

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posted by David Friedman @ 1:32 AM

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Thursday, November 02, 2023

Sixers End Failed Harden Experiment While Clippers Hope That Harden Will be A Happy Camper

The James Harden concert tour is heading west: the Philadelphia 76ers shipped James Harden to the L.A. Clippers in exchange for Nicholas Batum, Robert Covington, Kenyon Martin Jr., Marcus Morris Sr., and several draft picks. The Clippers also received P.J. Tucker and Filip Petrusev from the 76ers. No offense to the players acquired by the 76ers, but it is fascinating that 2018 regular season MVP Harden--who was also selected to the NBA's 75th Anniversary Team--has been traded for players who have never made the All-Star team even once and are unlikely to make the All-Star team in the future. 

Daryl Morey ranked James Harden ahead of Michael Jordan as a scorer when Harden played for Morey's Houston Rockets, and Morey could not contain his joy when a disgruntled Harden forced his way out of Brooklyn to Philadelphia, where Morey is now the President of Basketball Operations; after Morey swooped in and traded Ben Simmons to Brooklyn for Harden less than two years ago, I concluded my analysis of that trade by stating, "It will be amusing watching Harden's inevitable playoff collapse ensure that the 76ers are not rewarded for trying to 'tank to the top.'" That prediction proved to be 100% correct. In 23 playoff games with the 76ers, Harden averaged 19.4 ppg on .399 field goal shooting as the 76ers lost in the second round in 2022 and 2023.  

In Harden's final playoff game with the 76ers he added yet another entry to his horrific elimination game resume, scoring nine points on 3-11 field goal shooting while committing five turnovers as the Boston Celtics routed the 76ers, 112-88. That kind of performance--featuring more turnovers committed than field goals made--should be defined as a "Harden," because it is Harden's specialty: Harden pulled off a "Harden" in three of his seven 2023 playoff games versus the Celtics, and during a six game stretch in the 2023 playoffs Harden had 32 field goals made and 30 turnovers committed, narrowly missing averaging a "Harden" for the equivalent of an entire playoff series. 

Morey remains an unrepentant Harden fan. ESPN's Ramona Shelburne recently quoted Morey's current take on Harden's legacy: "James changed my life. He's one of the all-time greats. As time goes on, people will think about him in much more historic terms. What he did to change the game and change the NBA will get recognized more as the Twitterverse and the people who don't understand how good he is fade away."

Morey has it backwards (as he often does): anyone who critiqued Harden and Morey for not understanding what it takes to win a championship will only gain credibility over time, while many of the highly paid commentators of recent years will eventually be relegated to much-deserved obscurity. The notion that Harden was ever as good as Jordan is demonstrably absurd and will not stand the test of time, but an analytical examination of the flaws in Harden's game (and the flaws in Morey's "advanced basketball statistics") is timeless basketball wisdom.

The funny thing about this trade is that Morey won in spite of himself. Whatever he did that resulted in Harden repeatedly calling him out publicly as a liar forced the 76ers to get rid of one of the worst playoff chokers of all-time, so the 76ers are better now than they were the past two seasons with Harden--though that may change depending on who Morey swoons over next, and how he decides to spend the draft picks that he has acquired.

Meanwhile, it is difficult to understand why the Clippers treasure the trash that has been dumped in the past four years by Houston, Brooklyn, and Philadelphia. Even after Wednesday's come from ahead overtime loss to the L.A. Lakers, the Clippers started the season 3-2 without Harden. ESPN's insightful analyst Tim Legler declared that the Harden trade does not change his evaluation of the Clippers at all because the Clippers had enough talent to be a contender even without Harden. Legler stated that the Clippers' fate depends primarily on whether or not Kawhi Leonard is healthy during the playoffs. Legler is right in the sense that Leonard is the Clippers' main star, but I would argue that the Harden trade is not just a lateral move in terms of the Clippers' championship hopes: Harden is a proven malcontent with a long track record of playoff choking, so the combination of Harden's inevitable bad attitude with his inevitable postseason disappearing act will likely harm the Clippers.

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posted by David Friedman @ 9:40 PM

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