Lillard Lights up 76ers in Bucks' Debut
Damian Lillard scored a game-high 39 points as the Milwaukee Bucks built a 19 point first half lead, fell behind by eight points in the fourth quarter, and then rallied to outlast the Philadelphia 76ers. Lillard shot 9-20 from the field and 17-17 from the free throw line while setting the franchise record for most points scored in a player's first game with the team. Giannis Antetokounmpo had an uneven performance, scoring 23 points, grabbing a game-high 13 rebounds, and accumulating three assists, two steals, and two blocked shots--but he shot 10-22 from the field (not good by his standards) and just 3-9 from the free throw line while committing seven turnovers and posting a team-worst -13 plus/minus number. Brook Lopez (13 points) and Bobby Portis (10 points) were Milwaukee's other double figure scorers.
According to pregame reports, James Harden showed up at the airport to travel with the 76ers to Milwaukee, but team officials refused to let him board the plane in the wake of his 10 day absence from team activities. Without Harden dribbling the ball until he created craters in the floor, other players had opportunities to handle the ball and score. Tyrese Maxey scored a team-high 31 points on 10-22 field goal shooting while passing for a game-high eight assists and not committing any turnovers. Kelly Oubre scored 27 points off of the bench on 9-11 field goal shooting.
Reigning regular season MVP and two-time defending scoring champion Joel Embiid scored 24 points, tied for the team lead with seven rebounds, and passed for six assists. Those numbers look OK, but he shot just 9-21 from the field and 3-8 from the free throw line while tying Antetokounmpo with a game-high seven turnovers. More concerning than Embiid's low free throw percentage--which is an aberration--is that seven of Embiid's field goal attempts were from beyond the arc. He is not a bad three point shooter, and he made three treys versus Milwaukee, but when Embiid takes a three pointer he bails out the defense. In contrast, when Embiid attacks the paint he creates a high percentage shot for himself or for a teammate, and he increases the likelihood that he will draw a foul; drawing fouls puts the opposing team in foul trouble, and helps the 76ers get into the bonus.
In the fourth quarter with the game up for grabs, Embiid scored four points on 2-8 field goal shooting. This is a recurring theme throughout Embiid's career: he puts up good numbers overall, but when the game is on the line--particularly in the playoffs--he wears down or just disappears. It never seems like Embiid is in tip top physical condition, and he also often seems to lack the closer's mentality possessed by the truly great players.
After Lillard hit two free throws to put Milwaukee up 57-38 with 4:04 remaining in the first half, it did not appear likely that Embiid's inability to dominate down the stretch of a close game would be relevant; it looked like the Bucks were cruising toward a 20 or 30 point blowout. However, the 76ers pulled to within 63-54 by halftime after draining three treys in a little over a minute.
The Bucks clung to an 88-85 lead at the end of the third quarter, but they trailed 102-94 with 6:47 left in the fourth quarter after Maxey drained two free throws. Lillard scored nine points in the final four minutes, including a pair of game-clinching free throws to give the Bucks a 118-114 lead with 11.5 seconds remaining.
Last season, the Bucks ranked second in the NBA in defensive field goal
percentage (.456), but swapping elite defensive player Jrue Holiday for Lillard will
inevitably lead to defensive slippage, so it is not surprising that the
76ers shot 41-80 (.512) from the field during this game or that the 76ers scored 32 fourth quarter points. The Bucks' offense down the stretch consisted of Lillard dominating the ball, and often settling for long jump shots; those "logo threes" look cute when they go in, but more often than not they don't go in, which is one reason why Lillard's Portland teams posted a 4-8 playoff series record in 11 seasons. The Bucks have been criticized for having a stagnant offense, a problem that the acquisition of Lillard is meant to solve--but a team with a dominating inside force like Antetokounmpo and an excellent shooter/ballhandler like Lillard should never be settling for "logo threes." That is just not how championships are won, particularly considering that it is doubtful that Milwaukee's defense will ever be as good as it was with Holiday at point guard. The Bucks should be running an offense revolving around Antetokounmpo and Lillard running screen/roll actions that result in (1) a high percentage paint shot for Antetokounmpo, (2) a high percentage open shot (not from the logo) by Lillard, or (3) a high percentage open shot for one of the other three players on the court. This is the first regular season game of the Antetokounmpo-Lillard era, and we have seen previous duos and trios need some time to hit their stride, so in no way am I suggesting that the Bucks will not be very, very good. My point is simply that one win against a shorthanded 76ers team should not be overrated.
As for the 76ers, we have already seen that they cannot win a championship with Harden--but they also cannot win a championship by giving up Harden for nothing. Harden wants out, and the 76ers should accommodate him as soon as possible so that the franchise can move forward without being held back by a player whose overestimation of his abilities markedly contrasts with his epic playoff failures, culminating in his disappearing act in a game seven loss versus Boston last May.
Labels: Damian Lillard, Giannis Antetokounmpo, James Harden, Joel Embiid, Milwaukee Bucks, Philadelphia 76ers
posted by David Friedman @ 1:53 AM
2 Comments:
A few observations:
After just one game it's hard to tell whether the Bucks are good or the Sixers are bad.
It's obvious that Damon Lillard cannot play D to save his life. Any decent team will matchup-hunt Lillard in the playoffs. That is the chink in their armor. Put Giannis on the weak side on defense, and isolate Lillard. Put in all ballhandlers so the Bucks cannot hide Dame. Nurse should have subbed in Melton instead of Green at the end.
Tyrese Maxey for most improved this year.
But Giannis Antetokounmpo doesn't seem to have added anything to his game. Giannis needs to figure out his free throw stroke. He was awful last year, bad in the preseason and just terrible last night. Seems to be having a Westbrook-like regression, but he's starting from a lower bar. And why is he trying to run the offense at the top of the key, chucking 3 when Lillard is right next to him? Low IQ.
Damon is elite but he is hardly unstoppable himself either.
As for the Sixers, they might not even make the second round this year. Embiid already looks exhausted. He won't survive the Nick Nurse minutes. Coach played him the entire first quarter.
Sixers need to make some magic with the inevitable Harden trade. Failing that. Throw money at Klay or OG this summer. They have two expiring deals in Tobias ($39.3 million) and Harden ($35.7 million).
Otherwise it's looking like a punt year. And Embiid asks for a trade (likely to Lakers/Knicks/Heat).
Awet:
I agree that there is a limit to what can be determined based on one game, though I would say that to the extent that what we see in one game is similar to what we have seen in other games we can assert with confidence that we are observing a trend and not an outlier. I am not expecting Embiid to suddenly become a tireless player who excels in the clutch; he has consistently been a player who wears down and disappears in the clutch.
I agree that Lillard is an awful defender. That is also a longstanding trend, not a one game aberration.
Maxey is an All-Star caliber player. I am not sure if he is most improved, but he may go from being underrated to being appropriately rated.
Antetokounmpo averaged 6.8 ppg on .414 field goal shooting as a rookie. Last season he averaged 31.1 ppg on .553 field goal shooting. He has also become an elite defender, rebounder, and passer. So, I disagree with the notion that he has not added anything to his game. I agree that his free throw shooting is regressing. Wilt Chamberlain, Bill Russell, and Shaquille O'Neal were awful free throw shooters who combined to lead their teams to 17 NBA titles. Free throw shooting is important, but for a dominant two-way big man it may be the least important skill.
It would be understandable if Embiid asks out, but I also suspect that even if Embiid lands with a more stable franchise that is not a slave to faulty analytics he still would struggle to get past the second round. I think that he lacks the necessary mindset and the necessary physical conditioning. Harden's foolishness has, in effect, provided a shield protecting Embiid from being criticized for his playoff shortcomings/disappearing act.
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