Oklahoma City Versus Indiana Preview
NBA Finals
Oklahoma City (68-14) vs. Indiana (50-32)
Season series: Oklahoma City, 2-0
Indiana can win if…Tyrese Haliburton orchestrates an efficient fast-paced attack with high percentage shooting and minimal turnovers. Haliburton has been very consistent in the first two playoff runs of his young career: last year he averaged 18.7 ppg, 8.2 apg, and 4.8 rpg with shooting splits of .488/.379/.850 while leading the Pacers to the Eastern Conference Finals, and so far this year he has averaged 18.8 ppg, a league-leading 9.8 apg, and 5.7 rpg with shooting splits of .466/.333/.804 while leading the Pacers to their first NBA Finals appearance since 2000. He did not make the All-Star team in 2025 after earning two straight selections from 2023-24, but he is the engine that makes the Pacers go. Haliburton conducted the show as the Pacers ran past the New York Knicks in the Eastern Conference Finals after upsetting the East-leading Cleveland Cavaliers in the second round.
Pascal Siakam led the Pacers in scoring (20.1 ppg) during the regular season, and this was the sixth straight season he averaged at least 20 ppg. The three-time All-Star was the Pacers' only All-Star this season, and he is leading the Pacers in playoff scoring (21.1 ppg). Siakam won the 2025 Larry Bird Eastern Conference Finals MVP, and he played a key role for Toronto's 2019 championship team. The Pacers have few set plays for him, but he runs the floor well and he is an efficient three level scorer when the game slows down.
Myles Turner twice led the NBA in blocked shots (2019, 2021), and he ranked in the top 10 in blocked shots in eight of the past nine seasons, including 2024-25 (2.0 bpg, third). He is not a great rebounder (6.5 rpg this season, 6.8 rpg for his career, 4.9 rpg in the 2025 playoffs) but he is an efficient double figure scorer (15.6 ppg on .481 field goal shooting during the regular season, 15.2 ppg on .525 field goal shooting during the playoffs).
Aaron Nesmith leads the Pacers in three point field goals made (43) in the 2025 playoffs, and he ranks first in three point field goal percentage (.500) among the eight Pacers who have each made at least 10 three pointers during the playoffs. He is also a physical, crafty defensive player who ranks third on the Pacers in playoff rebounding (5.6 rpg), second in blocked shots (.8 bpg), and fourth in steals (.9 spg).
Andrew Nembhard leads the Pacers in playoff steals (1.6 spg) while ranking second in assists (5.1 apg), third in three point field goals made (29), and second in three point filed goal percentage (.483) among the Pacers who have each made at least 10 three pointers during the playoffs.
The Pacers have a talented and deep roster, and they have exceeded all reasonable expectations for how far they could advance in the 2025 playoffs.
Oklahoma City will win because…the Thunder do many of the things that the Pacers do on offense, but the Thunder are better at most of those things: the Pacers ranked seventh in the NBA in regular season scoring (117.4 ppg) and third in field goal percentage (.488)--but the Thunder ranked fourth in regular season scoring (120.5 ppg) with just a slightly lower field goal percentage (.482). The Pacers ranked ninth in regular season three point field goal percentage (.368); the Thunder ranked sixth (.374).
The Thunder not only can match the Pacers shot for shot offensively, but the Thunder have a superior defense. The Thunder set the all-time regular season record for point differential (12.9 ppg), and they have a double digit point differential in the playoffs (10.9 ppg) even though competition is tougher in the postseason. They led the NBA in turnovers forced (17.0 tpg) during the regular season, and they are leading the playoffs with 18.0 tpg forced. The Thunder rank second in the playoffs for fewest turnovers committed (11.8 tpg, just behind the much slower paced Orlando Magic, who averaged 11.6 tpg in a five game first round loss). During the regular season, the Thunder led the league in defensive field goal percentage (.436), two point field goal percentage defense (.513), three point field goal percentage defense (.342), and steals (10.3 spg) while ranking third in points allowed (107.6 ppg); during the playoffs, the Thunder rank first in defensive field goal percentage (.426), second in two point field goal percentage defense (.501), fourth in three point field goal percentage defense (.331), first in steals (10.8 spg), and fourth in points allowed (106.3 ppg).
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander won the 2025 regular season MVP after leading the league in scoring with a career-high 32.7 ppg, and he was even more effective in his two games versus the Pacers this season: 39.0 ppg with shooting splits of .556/.636/.913. He also averaged 8.0 apg and 7.0 rpg in those games while committing just one turnover in 69 minutes. The Pacers defended Jalen Brunson well in the Eastern Conference Finals, and Brunson still averaged 30.7 ppg on .504 field goal shooting. Gilgeous-Alexander is bigger and more athletic than Brunson, so to say that the Pacers have their hands full is a massive understatement.
Most championship teams have an All-Star one-two punch. Jalen Williams, who turned 24 two months ago, earned his first All-Star selection in 2025, averaging 21.6 ppg, 5.3 rpg, and 5.1 apg to set new career highs in all three categories. He has maintained similar production in the playoffs (20.4 ppg, 5.8 rpg, 5.3 apg). Williams is not as consistent or as dominant as Gilgeous-Alexander, but when Williams is scoring efficiently the Thunder are almost impossible to beat.
Lu Dort looks like a linebacker masquerading as an NBA defensive stopper. Despite averaging a modest 10.1 ppg during the regular season (seventh on the team) he ranked third in minutes played per game because he is the quintessential "3 and D" wing. Dort shot a career-high .412 from three point range this season, but he has slumped to .304 during the playoffs.
The Thunder could be bullied in the paint in the 2023-24 season, but that ended after the summer 2024 acquisition of 7-0, 255 pound center Isaiah Hartenstein, who averaged 11.2 ppg and a team-high 10.7 rpg during the regular season and 9.2 ppg plus 7.9 rpg during the playoffs.
Chet Holmgren is slender but he is not afraid to play in the paint, as demonstrated by his 15.0 ppg, 8.0 rpg, and team-high 2.2 bpg during the regular season. In the playoffs, he is averaging 16.4 ppg, 8.6 rpg, and 2.0 bpg.
Alex Caruso's modest boxscore numbers do not indicate his huge impact on team success. He can provide full court pressure defense against point guards, and he can guard Nikola Jokic in the post (at least for brief stretches). Caruso, Gilgeous-Alexander, Dort, Williams, and Cason Wallace are each averaging at least 1 spg during the playoffs after also accomplishing that feat during the regular season; any dribble or pass in their vicinity is apt to be transformed into a Thunder fast break dunk or three pointer.
Other things to consider: The Pacers are a very good team that is peaking at the right time--but the Thunder are a historically great team led by a player who has a chance to be considered historically great.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is 26 years old and already has won a regular season MVP while earning three All-NBA First Team selections. Tracy McGrady, Gary Payton, Dwyane Wade, and Russell Westbrook each received two All-NBA First Team selections in their entire careers, and McGrady, Payton, and Wade never won a regular season MVP. Allen Iverson, Steve Nash, and Isiah Thomas each made the All-NBA First Team three times, with Iverson winning one regular season MVP, Nash winning two regular season MVPs, and Thomas winning one Finals MVP. One more All-NBA First Team selection moves Gilgeous-Alexander into a tie with Stephen Curry, Walt Frazier, and Chris Paul. If Gilgeous-Alexander wins the Finals MVP then he and Curry would be the only players in that cohort of guards who have a regular season MVP, a Finals MVP, and at least three All-NBA First Team selections. The list of guards who made the All-NBA First Team at least five times includes Kobe Bryant (11), Bob Cousy (10), Jerry West (10), Michael Jordan (10), Oscar Robertson (9), Magic Johnson (8), James Harden (6), George Gervin (5), Jason Kidd (5), and Luka Doncic (5).
Young superstars often have to learn how to share the ball and how to empower their less talented teammates, but Gilgeous-Alexander appears to be an excellent leader who enjoys a great rapport with his teammates. Whenever he is interviewed after a nationally televised game, he includes all of his teammates; with some other stars, that might come across as fake, but when Gilgeous-Alexander does it the love and respect seem to be genuine--and that connectivity is reflected in the way that the Thunder play at both ends of the court.
The Pacers have enjoyed a remarkable playoff run, but the Thunder are clearly the better team. I predict that Oklahoma City will win in five games.
Labels: Indiana Pacers, Jalen Williams, Oklahoma City Thunder, Pascal Siakam, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Tyrese Haliburton
posted by David Friedman @ 12:01 PM
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