In a season notable for the shocking Luka Doncic-Anthony Davis trade and the firing of respected veteran coaches Mike Brown and Taylor Jenkins, the Denver Nuggets added to the list of surprising moves by firing Michael Malone, who coached the team to the franchise's first championship just two years ago. The Nuggets could finish as high as third in the West, so firing the coach with the most wins (471) in franchise history and the most wins (438) in the NBA since 2016-17 is stunning, even considering the contentious nature of Malone's relationship with General Manager Calvin Booth, who the Nuggets also fired. Assistant coach David Adelman, son of long-time NBA coach Rick Adelman, is now Denver's interim head coach.
Media members and fans often make impulsive and subjective evaluations of coaches (and players). I evaluate coaches based on how well their teams play defensively, because defense requires (1) the correct schemes based on the team's personnel and based on matchups, and (2) players buying into whatever the coach is selling. I also evaluate coaches based on the extent to which a team meets or exceeds reasonable expectations. A coach with a roster capable of winning 25 games with a bottom third defensive ranking did a good job if his team finished 30-52 with a top 15 defensive ranking, but a coach with a roster capable of winning 45 games with a top 15 defensive ranking did a bad job if his team won 40 games while ranking 20th in defense (assuming that the teams in this comparison both had reasonably healthy rosters). I evaluate the decision to fire a coach based not only on the above factors but also based on the likelihood of finding a replacement who can do better than the fired coach.
Prior to this season, I picked Denver to be the third best team in the Western Conference. The Nuggets are currently in a four way tie for fourth with a 47-32 record (the Nuggets are fifth based on tiebreakers), but the standings are so bunched together that Denver could finish anywhere between third and eighth. Denver's second best player, Jamal Murray, has been limited by injuries for most of this season, and he has missed the last five games due to injury, with the Nuggets losing four in a row after winning the first game that he missed. Until we see how healthy the Nuggets are during the playoffs (or the Play-In Tournament if they drop below sixth in the standings) and how far they advance, it is too soon to say if they have met reasonable expectations. The Nuggets rank 14th in the NBA in defensive field goal percentage and 25th in points allowed; when they won the 2023 NBA championship they ranked 20th and eighth respectively in those categories, but their roster had more plus defenders at that time. It does not seem likely that a coach is available who will win 438 games and at least one NBA title in the next eight years, so firing Malone with three games to go seems like a rash, irrational move.
It will be interesting to see what happens with the other two high profile coach firings.
The Sacramento Kings fired Mike Brown after a 13-18 start this season. A 13-18 record is not great, but that winning percentage (.419) is better than the full season winning percentages of every Kings team from 2009-18. Brown won the 2023 Coach of the Year award after leading the Kings to a 48-34 record in his first season with the team, and they went 46-36 last season to post their first consecutive winning seasons since 2005-06. A little over a month after firing Brown, the Kings received Zach LaVine in a three team deal during which they sent De'Aaron Fox to the San Antonio Spurs. The Kings are 26-22 under Doug Christie, and they are clinging to the ninth spot in the Western Conference. The Kings rank 23rd in defensive field goal percentage and 20th in points allowed after ranking 21st and 17th respectively in those categories last season. Before the season, I ranked the Kings as the eighth best team in the Western Conference. It is fair to say that they underperformed early in the season under Brown, but it is not clear if that sample size of games was sufficient to make the decision to fire Brown, nor is it clear that Christie or whoever else the Kings may bring in next season will be more successful than Brown was.
The Memphis Grizzlies fired Taylor Jenkins, who posted a 250-214 record with the Grizzlies from 2019-25, including 44-29 this season. Jenkins led the Grizzlies to two Southwest Division titles (2022-23) and three playoff appearances (2021-23) even though the team's most prominent player--Ja Morant--has never played in more than 67 games in a season (a number that Morant only reached during the COVID-19 shortened 2020 campaign, when he won the Rookie of the Year award). Jenkins is the franchise's career wins leader, and he ranks second in franchise history in career winning percentage while notching the franchise's first (and only) division titles. The Grizzlies went 8-11 after the All-Star Game before firing Jenkins, and they are are 3-3 after replacing him with interim coach Tuomas Iisalo, who has no prior NBA head coaching experience. Their defense has not been good recently but overall they rank third in defensive field goal percentage and 23rd in points allowed (which is not as bad as that may sound because they are second in points scored and thus enjoy a nearly +5 ppg point differential). I ranked Memphis as the seventh best team in the Western Conference, and they are currently tied with Denver and two other teams for fourth.
Of the three teams that fired their coaches this season, only the Kings could be singled out for not meeting reasonable expectations, but it is fair to ask (1) if Mike Brown was given enough time and opportunity to right the ship and (2) if either Doug Christie or Doug Christie's replacement can do better long term than Brown. The Nuggets and Grizzlies are who we thought they were, to hearken back to the famous Dennis Green rant; one wonders what their owners think they are/should be, and what those teams will look like not just in the next two weeks but in the next seasons without the services of the excellent coaches who they summarily dismissed.
The NBA is experiencing an influx of new money; the league just signed a record-setting media rights deal, and many teams have young owners who are flush with cash and who think that possessing billions of dollars makes them experts on everything, including roster construction and coaching strategies. In Phoenix, Mat Ishbia has fired two coaches and done a complete roster overhaul in less than three years, and the Suns have crashed from winning 64 games and reaching the NBA Finals in 2021 to being a 35-44 Draft Lottery team this season.
It appears that a dispute over Russell Westbrook’s playing time between Malone and Booth may have played a role in both of them getting fired. Malone wanted to play Westbrook more while Booth preferred Jalen Pickett over Westbrook. Westbrook is usually mindlessly bashed by the media, although he did rarely deserve it for his unthinkable gaffes in the last few seconds of the game against Minnesota, and this will only add more fuel to the “Westbrook is trash/Westbrook is toxic” fire that many media members eagerly join in on.
ReplyDeleteMichael:
ReplyDeleteThe larger disagreement seems to have been about whether to prioritize giving minutes to veterans or to younger players.
The media does not need any reasons or excuses to bash Westbrook. Although it is true that Westbrook had two costly gaffes near the end of the Minnesota loss--first blowing a layup, and then committing a foul that resulted in the game-winning free throws--his mistakes are magnified and his contributions are minimized in a way that few other players suffer. Over a decade ago, I predictedthat Westbrook would take over Kobe Bryant's dual role as best guard in the NBA and vastly underrated superstar--and Westbrook vindicated my prediction by setting triple double records and winning a regular season MVP while also being a lightning rod for unjustified criticism.
Whenever you write about Westbrook, it reminds me of the story of the guy who claimed he made only one mistake in his life, and it was when he thought he was wrong about something, but it turned out he was right after all.
DeleteSome time ago I started watching Nuggets games about once a week, after completely tuning out of watching NBA games in real time, and that purely because Jokic works real miracles out there.
ReplyDeleteBut it has to be said that the defense of that team is absolutely rancid.
Jokic himself is often a statue under the rim. He is having a career high in steals, and not a low number in absolute terms either (almost two per game), while having three times fewer blocks (0.6 BPG), which is a career low. Generally you expect your center to be have more blocks than steals. And to have a couple blocks a game, not one block every two games. But that is because he has no lateral mobility to contest. And that is not a solvable problem as he is who he is. If he had lateral mobility, he would be the second Wilt Chamberlain given what he does on offense. That is not reasonable to ask.
But then there is the problem of perimeter defense also being an easily passed through sieve, which puts him in such situations to begin with.
The blame probably has to go to the GM and ownership for the roster construction. You need good perimeter defenders who also hit their shots with Jokic, and they don't have that, plus they have no bench either. Which is usually on the GM and/or ownership. Not the coach.
On the surface, all these moves seem very odd, especially Jenkins/Malone right before the regular season ends. I really don't get that. Let them finish the season/playoffs at least. But after looking deeper, maybe not so much.
ReplyDeleteEven based on this season alone, Brown had 31 games. That is not a small sample size. But overall, he had nearly 2.5 seasons. He did great in his first season, but underperformed in season 2, and greatly underperformed in season 3. The Kings weren't smart to get rid of Fox for Lavine either, but they've done much better since Brown's firing, so that's been a good decision. The Kings have fallen off after that trade.
Jenkins firing makes no sense to me.
I can understand the firing of Malone, though do it at least after the season. I know he won a title in 2023, but overall I feel he's underperformed. He's had the best player and a solid cast for awhile now-figure it out, though I'm not that high on Jokic as most are. 2023 was an extremely down year. Denver only had to beat 4 mediocre teams (best of them only had 45 wins) for the title. A play-in team (Heat) beat the #1 seed Bucks in the 1st round. But firing Malone and Booth seems odd. Why not just fire one of them?
Anonymous:
ReplyDeleteIt is not clear yet if there is any "blame" to distribute, because the Nuggets could still get a top four seed and make a deep playoff run. That being said, you are correct that the Nuggets are weak defensively, and to the extent that this weakness hold them back the GM, not the coach, should be blamed.
Anonymous:
ReplyDeleteI would say that 31 games is a small sample size. Regarding Brown's nearly 2.5 seasons, overall the Kings performed much better in that span than in any 2.5 season span in the past 20 years or so. It will be interesting to see the Kings' record in the next 2.5 seasons.
I assume that you are the Anonymous who keeps droning on about the Nuggets' title not being impressive because the Nuggets did not win a playoff series versus a team that won more than 45 games. The 2023 Nuggets had the best record in the West. The team with the best record plays the eighth seed in the first round, and that team almost always has less than 45 wins; the Nuggets earned that matchup by taking care of business in the regular season. In the second round, the Nuggets beat a fourth seeded PHX team featuring future HoFers Kevin Durant and Devin Booker (Jokic has not played with an All-Star in his prime at any point in his career). In the WCF, the Nuggets swept the much-ballyhooed revamped Lakers who went 43-39 in the regular season but were considered a proverbial "team nobody wants to face" after they made several midseason moves. In the Finals, the Nuggets beat a Heat team that reached the Finals for the second time in four seasons. I'm not saying that this was the greatest playoff run ever or that the Nuggets are an all-time great championship team, but there is no factual justification for the ax you keep grinding against that team. If you want to point fingers at an underachieving, unimpressive team in the West, talk about the LeBron Lakers with one "bubble title" followed by two first round exits and missing the playoffs altogether in 2022.
Anonymous:
ReplyDeleteGreat to have a comedian enter the chat. Care to point out something specific that I said about Westbrook that proved to be inaccurate? I will remind you that at a time when "experts" asserted that he was not a real point guard and would never become an elite player, I declared that he would become the best guard in the NBA. He subsequently won one regular season MVP while leading the league in assists three times, winning two scoring titles, and setting numerous triple double records. Every teammate of his who has spoken on the record praises him to the sky as a great teammate and leader. Just because my take on Westbrook may not fit your preferred narrative does not mean that I am wrong, nor does it mean that I am delusional to assert that I have been mostly right about Westbrook.
I'm not sure how 31 games (nearly 38%) of the season is a small sample size. But, 2.38 seasons obviously isn't. It's irrelevant how the Kings did before Brown got there as those were different rosters. The rosters Brown had composed of 2 AS-caliber players and decent cast around them. The Kings gradually got worse with Brown and couldn't even make the playoffs in year 2. In year 3, they got substantially worse with Brown. Maybe wait until after the season to fire him or not, but it wasn't working well overall with him there.
ReplyDeleteThe Nuggets won 53 games in 2023. It was a solid regular season for them, but far from elite. That would normally get them a seed from #3-5, with making it out of the 1st round probably but on the fence, and a very likely exit by the 2nd round at the latest. Sure, they will likely have a mediocre team in the 1st round as the #1 seed, but every round? That is unheard of and very fortunate for them. None of the teams were very good who they faced, regardless of what those teams did in the past nor how overrated they were that season. There's no ax to grind, just stating the narrative correctly. I said Denver should wait until after the season if they're going to fire Malone. I wouldn't say he's done a bad job overall as Denver's coach, but I'm not that impressed by him overall. With a 3x, maybe 4x MVP, and a solid cast around him, making only 1 Finals isn't good enough, especially with the lack of elite teams in the West over that stretch. And then feuding with your GM, obviously that's probably not going to go well for him.
You're shifting the argument when you take about James' Lakers. That has nothing to do with the Nuggets. And I agree for the record that his Lakers' teams have underachieved overall since he's been a Laker.
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ReplyDeleteAnonymous:
ReplyDeleteA sample size of 31 games is not even close to half a season, and barely accounts for playing each team one time. Strength of schedule, back to backs, and other factors even out over a season, but not necessarily over 31 games. I would argue that Brown's success in the previous two seasons and throughout his career should have earned him more slack.
How the Kings did before is relevant because this has been a dysfunctional franchise for two decades. Brown is the first coach in a generation to have success there.
Regarding the Nuggets, each season is different in terms of expansion teams, how many teams are tanking, injuries, and other variables, so it does not matter what seed 53 wins would "normally" earn. In 2023, the Nuggets earned the number one seed, and with that they not only earned homecourt advantage but they earned the right to play the eighth seed in the first round. What the teams that they played did in the recent past with largely the same rosters is relevant; for example, the Heat were not a "normal" seventh seeded team but rather a recent NBA Finalist that dealt with a lot of injuries in the regular season before showing their true strength in the playoffs.
Only people in the Denver organization know who "feuded" with whom, and who was at fault. I don't know how well Malone got along with Booth, but I know that Malone is a championship-caliber coach. Good luck to Denver finding another one.
My point with the Lakers is that you seem to be obsessed with knocking the Nuggets' 2023 title based on the Nuggets allegedly being not so great--but if you are really interested in "stating the narrative correctly" about recent NBA champions then you should be focused on refuting the popular narrative about how great the Lakers are since James arrived in L.A.; they won the "bubble title" but other than that they have not accomplished much for a team featuring two 75th Anniversary Team members. We'll see if LeBron can do better after swapping Davis for Doncic.