Reverbations From Doncic-Davis Trade Will be Felt for the Next 10 Years
"Blockbuster," "Shocker," and "Stunner" are three overused adjectives to describe NBA trades, but they all are apt regarding the three team deal headlined by Dallas' Luka Doncic going to the L.A. Lakers in exchange for Anthony Davis. Dallas also sent Maxi Kleber and Markieff Morris to the Lakers, and the Lakers sent Max Christie and a 2029 first round draft pick to the Mavericks. The Utah Jazz received Jalen Hood-Schifino from the Lakers plus two second round draft picks (one that originally belonged to the L.A. Clippers, and one that belonged to the Mavericks). Per Elias Sports Bureau, this is the first trade featuring two players who both made the All-NBA Team in the previous season.
LeBron James' public relations team (i.e., ESPN's Dave McMenamin and Brian Windhorst) claim that James did not push for this trade and had no prior knowledge that it would take place. It is difficult to believe that James--the Lakers' de facto general manager--had no input regarding a franchise-defining trade, and it is worth noting that James' public relations team pointed out that James highly respects Doncic and has long expressed a desire to play alongside Doncic; in other words, his public relations team is making sure that if this works out then James will get credit for wanting to team up with Doncic, but if this does not work out then James has plausible deniability. It seems more likely that the Lakers did this either because James explicitly asked for this or because the Lakers knew that James wanted to swap Davis for Doncic than that the Lakers did this with no input from James; however, considering that James is 40 years old and has led the Lakers past the first round just twice in his six seasons in L.A., it is possible that the Lakers have turned the page on the James era and are focusing on building around Doncic for the next 10 years or so.
It is interesting that regardless of James' input, this deal was initiated by the Mavericks, not the Lakers. The Mavericks decided that they preferred to trade Doncic than to pay him the "supermax" $345 million contract for which he would soon be eligible. Mavericks General Manager Nico Harrison said, "I believe that defense wins championships. I believe that getting an All-Defensive center and an All-NBA player with a defensive mindset gives us a better chance. We're built to win now and in the future." Alluding to the other big men already on Dallas’ roster, Harrison added, "I think if you look at the Cleveland Cavaliers, that's what you're going to see. Anthony's probably going to finish games at the 5, but you're going to see those guys play together. And when the Lakers won, he played the 4." The Cavaliers have stunned the league this season not only with their league-best 40-9 record, but with their lineup featuring big men Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen in an era during which many teams are going small and jacking up three pointers. It is interesting that despite the Cavaliers' frontcourt size they rank just 15th in rebounding and 26th in blocked shots while ranking first in three point field goal percentage and second in three point field goals made; they seem to have produced an effective blend of old school basketball and new school basketball.
The Mavericks have a 26-24 record, but they rank eighth in field goal percentage and eighth in defensive field goal percentage. They already have a good big man rotation featuring Dereck Lively II and Daniel Gafford, so it would seem that they were poised to make another deep playoff run once Doncic--who has been out of action for over a month with a calf injury--returned to the lineup, but there's the rub: it appears that the Mavericks became disenchanted with Doncic's conditioning, which they believe has caused him to be injury-prone. Is that a sufficient reason to give up on one of the NBA's five best players just as he enters his prime years?
Doncic won the 2019 Rookie of the Year award, and then he made the All-NBA First Team in each of the next five seasons. He is averaging 28.1 ppg, 8.3 rpg, and 7.8 apg this season, but is not eligible for 2024-25 postseason awards because he has already missed 28 regular season games and thus will not play in at least 65 regular season games this season. In his six seasons with Dallas, Doncic has twice led the Mavericks to the Western Conference Finals (2022, 2024), and he led the Mavericks to the 2024 NBA Finals.
Davis is a member of the NBA's 75th Anniversary Team who has made the All-NBA First Team four times (2015, 2017-18, 2020) and the All-NBA Second Team once (2024) in addition to earning five All-Defensive Team selections. He led the league in blocked shots three times (2014-15, 2018). Davis played an essential role for the Lakers' 2020 "bubble" championship team, but the Lakers have advanced past the first round just twice in his five full seasons with the team. Prior to joining the Lakers, Davis' New Orleans Pelicans advanced past the first round once in seven seasons. This season, Davis is averaging 25.7 ppg (15th in the league), 11.9 rpg (sixth), and 2.1 bpg (fourth) in 42 games.
The tried and true template for evaluating an NBA trade is to look at which team received the best player, while understanding that size matters in the NBA and that age also matters. There is little doubt that Doncic is a better player now than Davis, and Doncic is just shy of his 26th birthday, while Davis will soon turn 32. Davis is much taller than Doncic, and Davis has a major impact at both ends of the court while Doncic is an elite offensive player who struggles defensively, though he is Dallas' leader in defensive rebounds per game so far this season.
Thus, the Lakers are receiving the best player in the deal, and the best player is also six years younger than the second best player. It is not surprising that some commentators are giving the Lakers an "A" and giving the Mavericks an "F," but the injury history of both players and the roster composition of both teams should be considered as well. Doncic played at least 70 games in a season just twice in his first six seasons, and he will not get close to that number this season, while Davis played at least 70 games in a season just three times in his first 12 seasons. Davis may be in better shape than Doncic, but that has not translated into Davis being consistently available to play. Without Davis, the Lakers--who rank 19th in defensive field goal percentage and 27th in rebounding--have no rim protection and no paint presence. Even if Doncic and James both average 30 ppg the rest of the way, the Lakers may not be able to score enough points, get enough rebounds, and get enough stops to win consistently; they desperately need to add at least one competent defensive big man before the trade deadline to have any hope of getting past the first round of the playoffs. Meanwhile, the Mavericks now have great size and paint presence, but they are dependent on Kyrie Irving--who played at least 70 games in a season just three times in his first 13 seasons and is unlikely to play at least 70 games this season--not only for scoring but also for shot creation.
The positives for Davis--his size and his two-way impact--do not outweigh the reality that he has not been an All-NBA First Team player since 2020 and is not likely to be one again. Without Doncic and with Davis, the Mavericks' offense is likely to decline more than their defense is likely to improve, and they could be awful at both ends of the court if Davis and Irving both get injured at the same time.
More than any other NBA franchise, the Lakers are defined by consistently having one of the league's top five players on their roster, and the list of such players includes George Mikan, Elgin Baylor, Jerry West, Wilt Chamberlain, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Magic Johnson, Shaquille O'Neal, Kobe Bryant, and LeBron James. Doncic is poised to fill that slot for the next 5-10 years.
My short term assessment of this trade is that both the Lakers and the Mavericks are worse than they were before and both teams need to make at least one more move to balance out their rosters. The Lakers' long term prospects depend on their ability to build around Doncic after James retires or finishes his career with a different team. The Mavericks' long term prospects are murky, because within five years or less they will have to rebuild their team after Davis and Irving decline or retire. It is stunning that the Mavericks decided to trade potentially 10 years of All-NBA First Team Doncic for possibly five years of All-NBA Second Team (or worse) Anthony Davis.
Labels: Anthony Davis, Dallas Mavericks, Jalen Hood-Schifino, L.A. Lakers, LeBron James, Luka Doncic, Markieff Morris, Maxi Kleber, Utah Jazz
posted by David Friedman @ 12:31 AM
6 Comments:
the amount of complaining to refs in Lakers games will now go through the roof ;-)
I think the Mavericks probably feared Luka would become what Kawi Leonard and Zion Williamson are going thorugh. So they panicked and made that trade. I do believe it was dumb for them to do so. I think they have to win a title within the next two to three years or it may be considered the dumbest trade in NBA history.
As for the Lakers probably getting worst after the trade, that may be the case. They probably don't believe James and Davis will ever win another title together so it made sense to trade Davis for Luka. As stated you have someone that would be the face of the team after LeBron retires.
If the Lakers are able to acquire a legitimate center prior to the trade deadline this could be both a trade for the future and a win-now deal.
As you noted, this trade is overall a win for the Lakers but not by the large margin that most people seem to think it is. I’m very curious to see how James and Doncic coexist on the court together offensively. Is either player going to defer to the other and accept a 1B or second option role? Is Doncic going to become the next Kawhi Leonard and become absurdly injury-prone after moving to Los Angeles? I certainly hope not but there are legitimate reasons why this deal could potentially turn sour for the Lakers and it is not currently the landslide victory for them that many people seem to think it is.
I think you're spot on David in that Lakers come out on top due to Luka being younger and most likely willing to camp on LA for a decade. That said, I do watch the Mavs reasonably often and I can actually imagine Davis and Irving doing well together, and Davis will probably play well and help stretch the floor for Gafford or Lively at center (both young and decent big men), maybe even reducing his injury risk. The Mavs will be a big team with some decent guards who can cut (Exum, Irving) and shoot (Thompson, Dinwiddie). Davis at PF should work well, but does it make them championship calibre? Not sure.
Are the Lakers championship calibre with Doncic? Probably not til James retires/leaves and frees up cap space.
I'm also trying to think of an equivalent trade in the League's history but really struggling.
Anonymous:
It is not difficult to picture a scenario with Davis and Irving playing well together--they almost certainly will both post gaudy individual numbers--but Doncic is a perennial All-NBA First Team alpha dog and we have over a decade's worth of evidence proving that neither Davis nor Irving can fill that role.
The Mavericks had a puncher's chance to return to the NBA Finals this season with a healthy Doncic. I would be very surprised if they make it to the NBA Finals as currently constructed.
The Lakers were a first round playoff loser at best before this deal, and they are a first round playoff loser at best now. The difference is that they have 5-10 years to build a championship team around Doncic, though that will most likely not happen until after James is no longer a Laker.
It's an odd trade or at least very interesting trade, in that both teams seem to be worse after the trade for this season except for one reason possibly: Doncic seems hungry to win. I suspect his competitive spirit come playoffs will show up. But, this trade seems like a huge win for the Lakers for the future, though Doncic will need to stay on the court more. He is actually more injury prone(misses more games) than Davis has had.
I and I'd think most of us were surprised Dallas advanced as far as they did last year, too. But, it's hard to see Dallas do much in the playoffs unless maybe if Davis/Irving somehow both don't get injured at all. But even though, probably a 1st round exit at best.
I could see the Lakers do well in the playoffs though. They're going to have a very big lineup now. Their size will help them defensively if they play hard. And Vanderbilt is back now to help defensively, too. They have plenty of offensive firepower. Not that I expect them to win the West, but they should be a tough out if their main guys stay relatively healthy. The #2 seed is up for grabs for a bunch of teams, including the Lakers. Their schedule for the remainder of the season doesn't look overly difficult either.
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