Is the Status Quo Really So Bad for the Cavs?
Before this season began, I was a lone voice in the wilderness saying that the Cavaliers would be a contender. Some commentators went so far as to declare that Cleveland would not even make the playoffs. I have consistently maintained that three pillars form the basis for Cleveland's success: the brilliance of LeBron James, solid team defense and excellent team rebounding. Here is a more detailed version of my take on the Cavs in an article that I wrote for CavsNews.com (6/1/15 edit: the link to CavsNews.com no longer works, so I have posted the original article below):
Even though
LeBron James led the Cleveland Cavaliers to the franchise’s first NBA Finals
appearance last season, it has become popular among fans and so-called experts
alike to disparage both the team and that accomplishment. Supposedly, James is
surrounded by a bunch of stiffs and the Cavaliers only made it to the Finals
because they faced favorable playoff matchups. We will look at the composition
of the roster momentarily but let’s first dispel the notion that the Cavs were
“lucky” to win the East. Yes, the depleted Washington Wizards were wounded prey
but the Detroit Pistons hardly faced a juggernaut when they swept the young
Orlando Magic in the other bracket. It is easy to take the New Jersey Nets for
granted in retrospect but they have a dangerous trio in Kidd-Carter-Jefferson
and they pulled off the second biggest upset of last year’s playoffs by
knocking off Toronto.
I don’t understand how analysts can continually praise Detroit’s greatness and then just brush off
the fact that the Cavaliers spotted the Pistons a 2-0 lead before sweeping the
last four games. The Cavaliers trounced the number one seed in the East, so it
makes no sense to act like they just sneaked into the Finals.
The Cavaliers’
0-5 record this season without James in the lineup is often cited as proof of
how poor his supporting cast is. A closer look at those games shows that this
is not an entirely fair verdict. Four of the losses came on the road—including
one in Boston--and
the losing streak included a stretch in which the Cavs played four games in six
nights. Anderson Varejao did not play in any of the five losses and Larry
Hughes only played in the last one, a 96-93 defeat at Charlotte. Not many teams are going to win
road games without two starters and their best reserve big man. James is
obviously a great player but his absence was not the sole cause for the losing
streak.
Let’s take an
objective look at the Cavaliers’ strengths and weaknesses. The number one strength
is obvious: James is one of the best players in the NBA, someone who leads the
league in scoring yet is also a very gifted playmaker. James is a good
rebounder and his defense continues to improve. The second strength of this
team is not as well understood or appreciated by many fans: the Cavaliers have
a tremendous frontcourt rotation—one of the very best in the league. Small
forward James is part of that but the Cavs also have a versatile three man
rotation of bigs: Zydrunas Ilgauskas, Drew Gooden and Varejao. Strength up
front translates into defense and rebounding, which—combined with James’
brilliance—were the cornerstones for the Cavs’ playoff run in 2007 and will
continue to be the foundation for whatever success Cleveland has in the future.
Most people
who have seen the Cavaliers play realize that it would be a good thing if the
team acquired a solid playmaking point guard and a wing player who is a good
scorer. The team’s fans wonder why General Manager Danny Ferry does not simply
make some moves to take care of those two concerns. Cavaliers’ fans dislike
Larry Hughes’ shot selection and want Ferry to trade him, preferably in
exchange for a true point guard—but running an NBA team is nothing like playing
fantasy basketball. It is not easy to make trades in the real world,
particularly if one of the players involved in the deal has a large contract. In
order for a trade to take place, it has to conform to NBA rules and both teams
have to feel like they are gaining something, whether that is in the form of
more talent, salary cap relief or draft picks that can be used to build for the
future.
There has
been much speculation about the Cavaliers acquiring Mike Bibby from Sacramento.
Contract-wise, Hughes could be swapped for Bibby but how exactly does that deal
help the Kings? The Cavs have put Hughes at point guard out of necessity but if
he lands somewhere else it is almost certain that his new team would put him
back at his natural shooting guard position—and the Kings already have Kevin
Martin at shooting guard. The only other players the Cavaliers have who make
more than $10 million per year are James and Ilgauskas. We know that James is
not going to be dealt. Trading big for small rarely works, getting rid of
Ilgauskas would weaken the Cavs’ great frontcourt rotation and it is unlikely that
the Kings want Ilgauskas anyway, based on the composition of their roster.
Also, Bibby missed the early part of this season due to injury and his field
goal percentage has declined each year since 2002-03. Cleveland fans who are
dreaming about pairing James with Bibby have been watching too many ESPN
Classic airings of old Lakers-Kings games from the early part of this decade,
back when Bibby was a deadly jump shooter on pick and roll plays. As things
stand now, there is no realistic deal to be made between Cleveland
and Sacramento
and it is far from certain that Bibby would actually be a big help even if the
Cavs could obtain him. It is also worth mentioning that Bibby would not be an
asset on defense—and defense is the main reason that Cleveland Coach Mike Brown
made Hughes the starting point guard. After Brown settled on a starting
backcourt of Hughes and Sasha Pavlovic, the Cavs closed the 2006-07 season on a
17-7 run. Hughes scored in double figures in the first eight playoff games and
the Cavs won seven of them. Hughes is much maligned because his individual
statistics do not match what fans expected him to produce based on the size of
his contract but the fact is that the team has consistently played better with
him in the lineup than with him sidelined. His defense and versatility are
assets and the Cavs would not necessarily be better off by replacing him with a
player who “looks” better statistically—assuming that such a deal could even be
made given the considerations that I listed above.
The Cavaliers
got off to a slow start this season because Varejao and Pavlovic held out and
injuries affected key players in the rotation, including Hughes, who was not
healthy to start the season and eventually had to shut things down for three
weeks. Since he returned to action on December 8, the Cavaliers are 14-7. A big
part of that resurgence—literally and figuratively—is Varejao; the Cavaliers
are 14-6 since he made his season debut, are currently riding a five game
winning streak and have won nine of their 10 games in January. Let’s spin this
ahead to the playoffs. The top two teams in the East right now are Boston and Detroit.
The Cavs handed the Celtics their second loss of the season on November 27 even
without Varejao and Hughes; less than a week later, playing without James,
Varejao and Hughes, the Cavs lost by just 10. Cleveland
matches up very well with Boston.
James will consistently win the matchup with Paul Pierce. Ray Allen is having
the worst shooting season of his career and is scoring fewer points than he has
in any season since his rookie year. Kevin Garnett puts up good all around
numbers but he is not the kind of player who will take a playoff game by the
throat and dominate it, let alone do so for an entire series. Boston’s team
defense has been better than expected this season but it will be interesting to
see how well the Celtics perform at that end of the court in the playoffs; the
game slows down in the postseason, meaning that they will need to be able to
score in the halfcourt (putting pressure on young point guard Rajon Rondo to
make good decisions) and if they are not able to do so consistently that will
make it even more vital for them to get stops. It is easier to play good
defense when you are scoring well and playing from ahead than it is when shots
are not falling and the other team is getting rebounds or steals and pushing
the ball back at you. The Cavaliers proved last season that they can advance to
the NBA Finals. This Celtics team, both individually and collectively, has yet
to enjoy such playoff success. As for Detroit,
the Cavs almost knocked off the Pistons in 2006 even as a neophyte playoff team
and then they got the job done last year without even needing a seventh game.
David Friedman is a freelance writer
specializing in professional basketball. His work has been published in several
magazines, including Hoop,
Lindy's Pro Basketball, Basketball Times
and Basketball Digest.
He has also contributed to NBCSports.com, HoopsHype.com and ProBasketballNews.com
and his articles are frequently reprinted at Legends of
Basketball, the official website of the National Basketball
Retired Players Association (NBRPA). Friedman wrote the chapter about the NBA
in the 1970s for the anthology Basketball in America (Haworth
Press, 2005). Check out
his basketball blog: 20 Second
Timeout
Labels: Cleveland Cavaliers, Larry Hughes, LeBron James, Zydrunas Ilgauskas
posted by David Friedman @ 5:10 AM
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