20 Second Timeout

Evaluating The Athletic's The Basketball 100, Focusing on the Top 15

David Aldridge and John Hollinger plus The Athletic staff are listed as co-authors of The Basketball 100, a book that ranks in order the top 100 players in pro basketball history. David Aldridge is one of the few modern NBA journalists who I respect: he writes well, and his takes are reasonable, even if I don't always agree with him, although I would say that I agree with him most of the time. In his Introduction to The Basketball 100, he declares, "If you truly love the game, you appreciate its history, and the stars of the early era, from George Mikan and Bob Cousy to Bob Pettit and Dolph Schayes. They were not plumbers and firemen; they were the best athletes of their generation, men to be respected." That last comment is a direct--and deserved--shot fired at J.J. Redick, who demeaned Bob Cousy because, in Redick's shameful words, Cousy played against "plumbers and firemen."

Although Aldridge's statement provides hope that the book will speak truth to power, there are reasons to be skeptical about the book as well. Aldridge talked about the book on a podcast with Bomani Jones, and Aldridge mentioned that while doing research he was surprised to learn that Dave Bing suffered an eye injury as a child that left him with blurred vision. I wrote about Bing's childhood eye injury in my 2007 Basketball Times profile of Bing, and I was not breaking news when I mentioned that fact, so it is surprising that a veteran NBA journalist did not know this--which is not to say that Aldridge is required to read my articles or to know every fact about every player, but rather that it is becoming increasingly evident that even among the best journalists there are very few (if any) who have truly immersed themselves in basketball history the way that I have done for more than 40 years. I often disagree with what others say about basketball players past and present simply because I am working with a much deeper set of facts and context than they are. That may sound arrogant, but anyone who takes the time to read even a fraction of the several million words that I have written about basketball can independently evaluate my knowledge of basketball history.

In his chapter about Bing, Aldridge asserts (p. 16) that Bing's single season scoring record at Syracuse stood for 23 years until Sherman Douglas broke it--but anyone who is familiar with basketball history does not have to consult Syracuse's record book to know that (1) Bing still holds that record, and (2) Douglas does not even rank in Syracuse's single season scoring top 10, never mind ranking first. It is disappointing to find such a glaring mistake in a book that touts itself as a definitive source for player rankings; if the writers, editors, and proofreaders employed by The Athletic do not know basic facts then why should readers place value on the book's player rankings?

Hollinger is one of many "stat gurus" who talked his way into various media jobs and even an NBA front office position by asserting this his proprietary statistic--Hollinger calls his PER, and other "stat gurus" have other proprietary statistics that they tout--is the best way to evaluate and rank basketball players and basketball teams. The concept of intelligently using statistics to objectively evaluate and rank basketball players sounds great, but in practice the use of "advanced basketball statistics" far too often results in ludicrous conclusions such as James Harden is a better scorer than Michael Jordan, and tanking is the best way to build an NBA team (never mind the fact that the data shows that tanking does not work). Utilize "advanced basketball statistics" in theory and you will build the best basketball team ever; utilize "advanced basketball statistics" in the real world and you will build the Philadelphia 76ers, who have not advanced past the second round of the playoffs despite hiring two of the most famous "stat gurus"--first Sam Hinkie and then more recently Daryl Morey--to run their basketball operations. The most incredible thing about Morey is that he has managed to stay employed as the main person running basketball operations for first the Houston Rockets and now the Philadelphia 76ers despite his pedestrian resume.

Not content with making money from hawking PER, Hollinger created a new "advanced basketball statistic" for The Basketball 100: GOAT points. I will spare you the details of how GOAT points work, because it can be summarized the same way that most such systems can be summarized: the system's creator arbitrarily selected the numbers that matter most to him, arbitrarily assigned weights to those numbers, and then declared that this is the best way to objectively rank basketball players. Everyone should want to find just one person who loves him or her as much as "stat gurus" love James Harden. The Basketball 100 ranked Harden 34th all-time--which is absurdly high--but Hollinger's GOAT points place Harden 13th, just ahead of Oscar Robertson, six spots ahead of Hakeem Olajuwon, seven spots ahead of Jerry West, eight spots ahead of Nikola Jokic, nine spots ahead of Giannis Antetokounmpo, 14 spots ahead of Stephen Curry, and 15 spots ahead of Julius Erving. Harden has had more "concert tours" than those all-time greats and he perfected the "Harden"--signifying a game during which a player has more turnovers than field goals made--but those are the only categories in which Harden should be ranked ahead of Robertson, Olajuwon, West, Jokic, Antetokoumpo, Curry, Erving, or anyone else who legitimately belongs on such a list.

Aldridge, Hollinger, and various staff writers divided the task of writing the book's chapters, with each chapter focusing on one player. In the first chapter by Hollinger--a discussion of Dave DeBusschere, who is ranked 97th on the list--he refers to the 1969 New York Knicks appearing in the Eastern Conference Finals (p. 20), but the NBA did not begin conference play until 1970 (the 1969 Knicks played in the Eastern Division Finals). Perhaps that may seem like a minor typographical error, but a major project featuring numerous editors, writers, and proofreaders should have a very small number of errors, particularly regarding facts that are easy to verify. 

Those are not the book's only easy to verify errors. Kelsey Russo writes that Jerry Lucas "was the first player in American basketball history to win a title at every level--high school, college, an Olympic gold medal, and the NBA" (p.144). Bill Russell accomplished that feat prior to Lucas. Zach Harper's disjointed and rambling account of Robert Parish's career asserts that Parish is one of six players who played in at least 1300 games and "averaged at least 16 points in each of their 17 seasons" (p. 174). Parish averaged less than 16 ppg in 11 of his 21 seasons. Harper also credits Parish with a career field goal percentage of .542 (.537 is the correct number), groups Parish with players who averaged at least 10 rpg during their careers (Parish averaged 9.1 rpg), and states that Kareem Abdul-Jabbar's career field goal percentage is .562 (.559 is the correct number). It is not clear why giggling while Amin Elhassan bashes Bob Cousy and Russell Westbrook qualifies Harper to analyze Parish's accomplishments specifically or basketball history in general.

I am not going to do a page by page analysis/refutation of this 737 page book, so I will limit my primary focus to comparing the book's top 15 players with the 14 players in my basketball Pantheon while along the way discussing the merits of adding a 15th player to my 2008 list.

Here is my Pantheon, with players listed in chronological order:

• Bill Russell
• Elgin Baylor
• Wilt Chamberlain
• Oscar Robertson
• Jerry West
• Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
• Julius Erving
• Larry Bird
• Magic Johnson
• Michael Jordan
• Shaquille O'Neal
• Kobe Bryant
• Tim Duncan
• LeBron James

Here are the top 15 players in The Basketball 100, listed according to the book's rankings:

1. Michael Jordan
2. LeBron James
3. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
4. Bill Russell
5. Magic Johnson
6. Wilt Chamberlain
7. Shaquille O'Neal
8. Tim Duncan
9. Larry Bird
10. Kobe Bryant
11. Hakeem Olajuwon
12. Stephen Curry
13. Oscar Robertson
14. Kevin Durant
15. Julius Erving

The lists have 12 players in common. The differences are that The Basketball 100 omitted Elgin Baylor and Jerry West while including Hakeem Olajuwon, Stephen Curry, and Kevin Durant. Curry and Durant had not yet entered the NBA when I selected my Pantheon, and Olajuwon just missed the cut for my Pantheon, so I will examine Olajuwon's career first before discussing if Curry and Durant should replace Baylor and West or if the Pantheon should be expanded much like the NBA's Greatest Players List expanded from 50 players in 1996 to 76 players in 2021. 

In my first Pantheon article, I explained the criteria for inclusion in the Pantheon: "The players in basketball's pantheon display both durability and a high peak value, which I would define in the following fashion: durability means sustaining a long career (at least 10 years) at or near the top of the game and peak value refers to the top level that the player reached, even if he stayed there only briefly in the midst of a longer career during which he performed at a lower but still exceptional level."

The unfortunate aspect of explaining why a particular player is not in the Pantheon is that such a discussion can seem disrespectful toward the player in question. It should be noted that I have already examined in detail why Olajuwon deserved to be a first ballot Hall of Famer, so suggesting that he ranks in the top 25 all-time instead of the top 14 or 15 should not be seen as a negative.

Olajuwon won two NBA Finals MVPs, two Defensive Player of the Year awards (1993-94), and one regular season MVP (1994). He earned six All-NBA First Team selections (1987-89, 1993-94, 1997), made the All-Star team 12 times, led the league in rebounding twice (1989-90), and led the league in blocked shots three times (1990-91, 1993). Olajuwon's Houston Rockets reached the Western Conference Finals four times (1986, 1994-95, 1997) and advanced to the NBA Finals three times (1986, 1994-95), winning back to back NBA titles in 1994-95. Olajuwon had at least 100 steals and 100 blocked shots in 12 seasons, tying a record set by Julius Erving; in 11 of those seasons, Olajuwon had at least 200 blocked shots, easily making him the career leader in "100/200" seasons. 

Much of Olajuwon's reputation is based on leading the Rockets to back to back championships, and dominating 1995 regular season MVP David Robinson in the 1995 Western Conference Finals. Those are superb accomplishments, but it is worth noting that overall in head to head competition Olajuwon and Robinson posted comparable statistics while Robinson's teams won 32 out of 48 games.

I am not a big fan of playing the "What if?" game, but when evaluating Olajuwon's career it is fair to ask if he would have won a championship had Michael Jordan not retired from the NBA for nearly two full seasons during Jordan's prime. Jordan's decision should not be held against Olajuwon--who can only outplay the players and teams in front of him--but it is pertinent to wonder about Olajuwon's two titles in light of the fact that in his other 18 seasons he managed just two appearances in the Western Conference Finals and only one appearance in the NBA Finals. With the exception of Oscar Robertson, Pantheon members routinely made deep playoff runs--and Robertson's Cincinnati Royals often had to contend with either Bill Russell or Wilt Chamberlain in a small league with highly concentrated elite-level talent. 

Selections to the All-League (ABA or NBA) First Team and top five MVP finishes are two quick ways to assess the combination of high peak value with durability; this does not mean that I selected my Pantheon based on those awards, but it means that the players who I selected often received those honors in recognition of their greatness. With the exception of Wilt Chamberlain and Bill Russell, every member of my basketball Pantheon earned at least eight All-NBA/All-ABA First Team selections. Chamberlain and Russell fought each other for that honor throughout the 1960s, with Chamberlain making the All-NBA First Team seven times and Russell earning three selections (including one before Chamberlain entered the NBA)--but Chamberlain finished in the top five in MVP voting 10 times (winning the award four times) and Russell finished in the top five in MVP voting 11 times (winning the award five times). Elgin Baylor finished in the top five in MVP voting seven times, Jerry West and Shaquille O'Neal each did so eight times, and every other Pantheon member did so at least nine times. Without exception, each Pantheon member was a legitimate MVP candidate for the better part of a decade, and some Pantheon members were legitimate MVP candidates for longer than a decade.

Olajuwon made the All-NBA First Team six times, and he finished in the top five in MVP voting six times. Olajuwon was a great player, but he was not quite a Pantheon-level player; the Pantheon players had longer runs of MVP/All-NBA First Team level dominance, and in general their teams had more playoff success (with the exception of Baylor, Robertson, and West, but those three players were the best at their positions for a solid decade). Instead of ranking Olajuwon 11th all-time, I would place him somewhere in the top 25.

Recency bias works in favor of Stephen Curry and Kevin Durant; younger fans may barely remember Kobe Bryant, let alone Michael Jordan and the great players who preceded Jordan. It has become increasingly popular to assert that Curry is one of the 10 greatest players ever, and Durant is often mentioned as one of the 10-15 greatest players ever--but, for the reasons listed below, I would not rank Curry or Durant ahead of any of the players in my Pantheon, nor am I inclined to expand my Pantheon to include either of them. As is the case with Olajuwon, ranking Curry and Durant in the top 25 all-time should not be considered disrespectful; using the same standards that I have consistently used, Curry and Durant just don't quite make the Pantheon cut.

Labels: Elgin Baylor, Hakeem Olajuwon, Jerry West, Julius Erving, Kevin Durant, LeBron James, Pantheon series, Stephen Curry

posted by David Friedman @ 1:41 AM

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