20 Second Timeout is the place to find the best analysis and commentary about the NBA.

Thursday, December 03, 2020

Analyzing the Russell Westbrook-John Wall Trade

The Houston Rockets had high hopes when they reunited former Oklahoma City teammates James Harden and Russell Westbrook prior to the 2019-20 campaign, but that backcourt pairing of two former regular season MVPs lasted just one season: the Rockets have traded Westbrook to the Washington Wizards for John Wall and a 2023 first round draft pick. 

Before looking at what this trade means for each player and each team, it is important to note that Houston made this deal because Westbrook is the third great player who James Harden could not get along with--at least on the court--for even a brief period. Harden's partnership with Dwight Howard lasted three seasons. Harden's partnership with Chris Paul lasted two seasons. Also, Harden spent his first three seasons as the third option in Oklahoma City behind Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook, but Harden chafed at that role. 

The problem is simple and obvious: Harden does not want to be challenged, does not accept constructive criticism, and refuses to alter his "dribble, dribble, dribble" playing style even though this style has repeatedly flamed out during the playoffs. Harden and Westbrook did not have as many public blowups as Harden did with Howard and Paul, but it is known that Westbrook challenged Harden to play harder and to play less carelessly, and it is also known that Harden did not appreciate those critiques. It is likely impossible to get the return for Harden that the Rockets would want--they value him much more highly than any other team in the league does--so when Harden clashes with another All-Star the other All-Star has to go.

It will be very interesting to watch how the relationship between Harden and Wall develops, but the likelihood is that in three years or less this partnership will be over.

Many media members underrate Westbrook's accomplishments, but the reality is that Westbrook has had a fantastic career by any objective standard. Although many self-proclaimed experts questioned if Westbrook could be a great NBA point guard, I asserted that Westbrook would be Kobe Bryant's heir not only as the league's best guard but also as its most underrated superstar--and Westbrook fulfilled both portions of that prediction, winning the 2017 NBA MVP but also being the subject of a lot of unfair and unwarranted criticism.

It has been asserted that Westbrook is not a winner, but Westbrook was an All-Star/All-NBA level performer for four teams that advanced to the Western Conference Finals, including one team that reached the NBA Finals. 

It has been asserted that Westbrook does not make his teammates better. I prefer evaluating whether a player makes his team better, because one player cannot make another player better than he is but one player can have an impact on his team's success. It is difficult to logically argue that any of Westbrook's teams would have been better without him, or that he played in a way that diminished the opportunity for team success. Also, many of his teammates had their best individual seasons while playing alongside him, the most prominent examples being Kevin Durant (who won his only regular season MVP while playing alongside Westbrook) and Paul George (who had his best season and finished third in MVP voting while playing alongside Westbrook). Harden posted the second highest scoring average of his career during his one season playing alongside Westbrook, en route to capturing his third straight scoring title. If Westbrook were selfish, or a "stat-chaser," or a ball hog then his teammates would not have performed so well. Harden is a great example: since he became the number one option in Houston, no All-Star who has teamed up with him has performed better than he did while not playing with Harden.

It has been asserted that Westbrook is not a great leader, but Westbrook sets an excellent example by playing hard, and making no excuses. 

In addition to winning the 2017 regular season MVP, Westbrook also has won two scoring titles (2015, 2017) and two assist titles (2018-19). He is the only player in pro basketball history who has won more than one scoring title and more than one assist title. 

Westbrook led the NBA in triple doubles for five straight seasons: 2015 (11), 2016 (18), 2017 (42--the all-time single season record), 2018 (25), 2019 (34). Last season, Westbrook ranked fourth in the NBA with eight triple doubles. He ranks second all-time with 146 career triple doubles, trailing only Oscar Robertson (181). Westbrook is the only player to average a triple double in each of three consecutive seasons. Oscar Robertson is the only player to accomplish this feat even once, though it should be noted that Robertson averaged an aggregate triple double over the course of his first five seasons. 

Westbrook has been selected to the All-NBA Team each of the last six seasons. Here are his scoring, assist, and rebounding averages for each of those seasons: 

2015: 28.1 ppg,   8.6 apg, 7.3 rpg
2016: 23.5 ppg, 10.4 apg, 7.8 rpg
2017: 31.6 ppg, 10.4 apg, 10.7 rpg
2018: 25.4 ppg, 10.3 apg, 10.1 rpg
2019: 22.9 ppg, 10.7 apg, 11.1 rpg
2020: 27.2 ppg,   7.0 apg,  7.9 rpg
 
Westbrook adapted better than many people expected when confronted with the challenge of playing alongside Harden. It could be convincingly argued that for roughly a two month stretch starting in January Westbrook played better than any player in the league. Then, of course, COVID-19 hit, and the league shut down for several months. Westbrook contracted the virus, and after he recovered he suffered a leg injury that limited his mobility and hindered his ability to fully regain his previous conditioning level, but based on how he played prior to March there is no reason to believe that Westbrook cannot perform at or near an MVP level during the 2020-21 season. 
 
Based on how well Westbrook meshed with previous All-Star teammates Kevin Durant, Paul George, and James Harden, there is good reason to believe that Bradley Beal will have his best season yet, and that the Wizards will make the playoffs.

By any objective measure, Wall is a less accomplished and less durable player than Westbrook. Wall heavily relies on his athletic ability, but he has not played in an NBA game for more than two years due to serious leg injuries. Westbrook has never missed that much time due to injuries, and there is no reason to believe that Westbrook will be less than 100% healthy when the season begins. Also, Wall played just 32 games during the 2018-19 season and just 41 games during the 2017-18 season, so it is nearly four years since he has made it through a complete NBA season without missing significant time due to injury.
 
Wall has made the All-NBA Team once (Third Team, 2017), and he has earned one All-Defensive Team selection (Second Team, 2015). He has never come close to winning a scoring title (his best single season scoring average is 23.1 ppg in 2016-17, ranking a career-high 18th in the league), and he has never won an assist title, though he has ranked second in the league in assists three times (2014-15, 2017) and he owns the second highest career apg average among active players (9.2 apg), trailing only Chris Paul (9.4 apg). Westbrook ranks third among active players with an 8.3 apg career average.

Here are Wall's scoring, assist, and rebounding averages for the past six seasons:

2015: 17.6 ppg, 10.0 apg, 4.6 rpg
2016: 19.9 ppg, 10.2 apg,  4.9 rpg
2017: 23.1 ppg, 10.7 apg, 4.2 rpg
2018: 19.4 ppg,  9.6 apg, 3.7 rpg
2019: 20.7 ppg,  8.7 apg, 3.6 rpg
2020: DNP-Injured

Wall's best season would be an average season for Westbrook. In 2016-17, Wall averaged career highs in scoring (23.1 ppg), assists (10.7 apg), and steals (2.0 spg) while also averaging 4.2 rpg. Westbrook's career averages are 23.2 ppg, 8.3 apg, 7.1 rpg, and 1.7 spg. 

Wall's teams have only advanced to the second round of the playoffs twice.
 
As a result of this trade, the Wizards have upgraded their roster both in terms of talent and in terms of durability. They are not a championship contender, or even a team that will likely win a first round playoff series, but they are better now than they were before they made this deal.
 
As a result of this trade, the Rockets have downgraded their roster both in terms of talent and in terms of durability. The best case scenario is that Wall stays healthy and is able to perform at the level he did back in 2017 when he earned his only All-NBA Team selection--and that he can do those things while accepting the reality that in Houston Harden calls all of the shots, takes most of the shots, gets most of the credit, and refuses to accept blame (or even constructive criticism) when things do not go well.

Labels: , , , ,

posted by David Friedman @ 8:15 PM

0 comments

0 Comments:

Post a Comment

<< Home