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Saturday, January 28, 2023

Embiid Dominates as 76ers Overcome 15 Point Deficit to Beat Nuggets

The Philadelphia 76ers, owners of the second best record in the Eastern Conference, rallied from a 15 point deficit to earn a 126-119 win over the Denver Nuggets, who have the best record in the Western Conference. The matchup featured a showdown between reigning two-time regular season MVP Nikola Jokic and Joel Embiid, who has finished second in the MVP voting each of the past two years. Jokic may not have taken the one on one duel personally, but Embiid obviously did, authoring just the third 45-15-5 game of his career, finishing with 47 points, 18 rebounds, five assists, three steals, and two blocked shots. Five other Sixers scored between 13 and 17 points, with James Harden leading that group with 17 points plus a game-high 13 assists. The difference in the game--other than Embiid's individual dominance--was that the 76ers recovered from a disastrous defensive first quarter (38 points allowed) to give up 35, 26, and 20 points in the final three quarters. 

Embiid is a big-time talent: he is an elite scorer, rebounder, and defender who also passes well. The questions about Embiid are not about talent but rather (1) "Will he be healthy during the playoffs?" and (2) "Will he be productive enough in the playoffs to lift the 76ers past the second round for the first time in his career?" Today's performance is impressive, but it is not surprising and it does not change Embiid's place in basketball history; what he does--or does not do--in April, May, and June (if he ever plays in June) will define his basketball legacy.

The 76ers are 20-4 in their past 24 games, and they are riding a seven game winning streak. Many people will once again speak of them as championship contenders, but until I see Embiid and Harden consistently play at a high level in the playoffs I will not take the 76ers seriously as a championship contender. 

Harden fled Oklahoma City because he refused to accept being the third option behind Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook. Now, a decade later, Harden is the second or third option--depending how you view him and Tyrese Maxey--behind Embiid, the clearly defined number one option. Harden proved correct my assertion that he is not suited to being the best player on a championship team. If he is willing to accept being the second or third option--and if Embiid can stay healthy--then the 76ers can be a contender. This season, Harden is averaging 21.5 ppg and 11.1 apg with shooting splits of .449/.385/.868, while Maxey is averaging 21.3 ppg and 3.9 apg with shooting splits of .460/.400/.814. Maxey is more efficient and more explosive than Harden, so the 76ers would be best served if Harden shot less frequently while Maxey shot more frequently. Coach Doc Rivers understands this, as can be seen by the fact that Maxey is averaging more field goal attempts per game than Harden this season after the reverse was true last season.

When the 76ers outscored the Nuggets 68-46 in the second half, Embiid had 28 points and Harden had three points (though he did accumulate seven assists). In the fourth quarter, Harden shot 0-4 from the field, including a pair of step back three pointers in the final 2:23 with the outcome hanging in the balance. If Harden is your main option--and especially if he is your main crunch time option--then you are in big trouble. Fortunately for the 76ers, Maxey hit four free throws, Embiid drained a three pointer, and P.J. Tucker tipped in one of Harden's misses.  

Jokic did not play badly, finishing with 24 points, nine assists, and eight rebounds--but those numbers are below average for him and they do not match Embiid's exceptional production. Jamal Murray (22 points), Michael Porter Jr. (20 points), and Aaron Gordon (18 points) each had solid games, but collectively the Nuggets fell apart at both ends of the court after building a 73-58 first half lead.

I disagree with the ESPN/ABC hype that this was a "statement game"--the 76ers won one game at home versus a Western Conference team playing the last game of a three game Eastern swing--but it is clear that Embiid wanted to make a point after not being voted as an Eastern Conference All-Star starter. It will be interesting to see which stars and which teams make "statements" during the playoffs.

Hubie Brown provided the color commentary for ABC, which added to the big game feel and was a welcome throwback to when Brown did so many big games for CBS, TNT and ESPN/ABC.

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posted by David Friedman @ 8:40 PM

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