Load Management Fails Again as Well-Rested Kawhi Leonard Sits Out Game Three With Knee Injury
Load management does not work.
The L.A. Clippers entered the 2022-23 regular season with a team that--led by Kawhi Leonard and Paul George--could have reasonably expected to contend for the number one seed in the Western Conference en route to battling for the NBA title. Instead, the Clippers load managed their way to a 44-38 record and the fifth seed in the Western Conference, meaning that they are unlikely to have homecourt advantage in any playoff series. Paul George played 56 games, and Kawhi Leonard played 52 games. The Clippers went 32-24 when George played, and they went 33-19 when Leonard played; based on those winning percentages, the Clippers were on a 47 win pace when George played, and they were on a 52 win pace when Leonard played. The Clippers went 23-13 when Leonard and George both started, a .639 winning percentage that projects to 52 wins in 82 games.
During the 994 minutes when Leonard and George were on the court together, the Clippers outscored the opposition by 8.2 ppg. How good is that? The 1997-98 "Last Dance" Chicago Bulls had a 7.1 ppg point differential during the regular season. For a variety of reasons--including but not limited to sample size, rules changes, and style of play changes--those numbers do not mean that the Clippers with Leonard and George are as good as the sixth championship team of the Bulls' Jordan-Pippen dynasty, but those numbers indicate that the Clippers with Leonard and George are very good.
The Clippers intentionally sacrificed regular season wins and rhythm based on the notion that Leonard and George would be fresh and healthy for an extended playoff run, even if that meant starting each series on the road.
Following the load management strategy did not produce the results that the Clippers expected or wanted. George is out with a knee injury that may sideline him for the entire postseason, and Leonard missed game three of the Clippers' first round series versus the Phoenix Suns. Leonard is listed as day to day, which basketball fans realize could very well mean that we don't see Leonard play again until next season.
Without Leonard and George in game three, Norman Powell poured in 42 points and Russell Westbrook added 30 points, 11 assists, and eight rebounds, but the Suns won, 129-124. The idiots who slandered Westbrook before, during, and after his tenure with the Lakers look even more foolish now, but the larger story for the Clippers is that--as great as Westbrook can still be--without Leonard and George they do not have enough firepower to counteract Kevin Durant, Devin Booker, Deandre Ayton, and Chris Paul.
When Leonard plays, he embodies everything that is great about basketball: he plays hard at both ends of the court, he does not engage in nonsense or histrionics, and he is much more interested in team success than individual glory. He also plays at an elite level: in the first two games at Phoenix, he was the best player on the court, averaging 34.5 ppg, 6.5 rpg, and 6.0 apg with shooting splits of .545/.600/.882 as the underdog Clippers obtained a split to seize homecourt advantage.
Based on physical talent, skill set, and mentality, Leonard takes a back seat to no NBA player of the past 10 years.
Unfortunately, this load management foolishness is robbing us of the opportunity to watch Leonard's greatness.
The counter-factual that some proponents of load management might mention is that without load management Leonard may not have been available for the playoffs--but that notion is easily dismissed as irrelevant based on several facts: (1) George load managed just like Leonard but George is not available for the playoffs; (2) if Leonard's body is so fragile that he needs to miss 30 out of 82 games to be available for the playoffs then it is unlikely that he will ever again be durable enough to survive a playoff run to the NBA Finals, which realistically involves playing in over 20 games; (3) there is no proof that whatever advantages may accrue from resting outweigh the disadvantages that almost certainly accrue from becoming rusty and out of condition (even if the resting players work out, nothing that they can do approximates actually playing NBA basketball).
I hope that Leonard and George get well soon, and that after they get well they stop load managing.
Labels: Kawhi Leonard, L.A. Clippers, load management, Paul George, Russell Westbrook
posted by David Friedman @ 1:41 AM
3 Comments:
I wouldn't be surprised if Kawhi isn't going to play much longer. His arc reminds me a bit of Sidney Moncrief. He's a better player, but I can see him retiring young
David,
The Clippers have now announced that Kawhi is out also for Game 4. Load management was and remains a joke of a concept that only became more popularized after Toronto got lucky in 2019 when they used it with him (plus Kevin Durant being injured for the 2019 Finals).
I am still somewhat a little shocked that the owners and players union were able to agree on the new terms regarding the CBA. I had honestly thought that there would be another lockout like 2011, but Silver and all parties involved have managed to facilitate what I thought would have been a contentious process between players and owners.
Today's ridiculous fast-paced game with three-pointer obsession and zero emphasis on defense have seemed to make it more likely for these professional players to get injured. I am not claiming to be a fitness expert or trainer, but in my opinion there seems to be too much emphasis from the front office of many teams on "rest" instead of actual proper conditioning/training.
It would be sacrilegious for the league to cut down on the number of regular season games from 82. This would severely affect basketball record-keeping and career statistical milestones for future players. It baffles me that the advancements of modern medicine would play a larger factor in preventing the number of injuries.
All in all, Kawhi being out for Game 4 essentially means that this series is close to over, unless the Suns have another epic implosion like they have the last two postseasons. In the off chance it happens, I would love to see Russell Westbrook lead this Clippers squad to a series upset over the Suns.
Eric:
I think that the players learned from previous experiences that forcing a lockout is not advantageous for them. Silver is also probably more accommodating to them than Stern was. Those are two reasons that I am not surprised that the NBA avoided having a work stoppage.
The season has not always lasted 82 games, but it has lasted 82 games for more than 50 years, so I agree with you that drastically changing that number would tamper with the record book. However, I don't think that the league cares much about the record book--but the reason that the schedule is unlikely to be shortened is that shortening the schedule would decrease revenue.
Westbrook is a great player and he is doing everything that he can, but it would not be realistic to expect him to outduel Durant, Booker and the rest of the Suns without having George and Leonard.
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