2023 NBA Playoffs Open With Quadrupleheader
It is obvious that the most important playoff games are games in
which at least one team faces elimination, but game one is more
significant than many casual fans may realize, because game one winners
prevail in an NBA playoff series with the seven game format nearly 80%
of the time, as I noted when I first researched this topic for NBCSports.com in 2007. Per the NBA's 2023 Playoff Guide, since 1983-84 the game one winner has won 77.1% of all NBA playoff series, and in 2022 the game one winner won 12 out of 15 series. The reason
for the importance of the first game is that--barring injuries or other major unforeseen changes during the
series--the
matchup advantages that are decisive in the first game tend to be
decisive the rest
of the way.
Here are thoughts and observations about each game from the first quadrupleheader of the 2023 NBA playoffs.
Philadelphia 121, Brooklyn 101
The 76ers should win this series without too much difficulty because they enjoy more star power, homecourt advantage, and a significant matchup advantage with MVP candidate Joel Embiid versus whoever the Nets use to attempt to check him. James Harden is a notorious playoff choke artist, but he is less likely to choke in a series like this one than in a series that requires him to do heavy lifting.
Embiid led the 76ers with 26 points, but he shot just 7-15 from the field and only grabbed five rebounds. However, the energy that the Nets expended to limit his impact opened up the floor for Embiid's teammates. Harden finished with 23 points and a game-high 13 assists. He shot 7-13 from three point range, but just 1-8 from inside the arc. The 76ers shot 21-43 (.486) on three pointers, giving the Nets a no-win choice: watch Embiid score 40-plus points versus single coverage, or watch the 76ers fire away from deep after Embiid is trapped. The Nets are betting that Harden will not regularly shoot 7-13 from beyond the arc--and they are right--but one of many problems for the Nets is that Tyrese Maxey will also not likely continue to shoot just 3-8 from the field. In short, the individual numbers will change from game to game, but Philadelphia's overall matchup advantages will remain constant.
Mikal Bridges scored a game-high 30 points on 12-18 field goal shooting, and the Nets shot .557 from the field, but the Nets only attempted 70 field goals while the 76ers attempted 89 field goals. Philadelphia created those extra possessions because they outrebounded the Nets 38-35 while only committing nine turnovers compared to the Nets' 20 turnovers.
If the Nets clean up their ballhandling and continue to shoot a high percentage then they could steal a game if Philadelphia's three point shooting cools off--but, as noted above, the Nets' problem from game to game is that if they fix one problematic area they are likely to have a problem in a different area.
In short, the 76ers are the better team.
Boston 112, Atlanta 99
Boston led 29-19 by the end of the first quarter and extended that margin to 74-44 by halftime. The Celtics led by as many as 32 points in the third quarter, and the Hawks never cut the deficit to less than 12 points the rest of the way. This is the kind of dominant performance one should expect from the defending Eastern Conference champions against a mediocre team that qualified for the playoffs via the Play-In Tournament.
Three Celtics scored at least 24 points: Jaylen Brown (29 points, 12 rebounds, three assists), Jayson Tatum (25 points, 11 rebounds, two assists), and Derrick White (24 points, five rebounds, seven assists). Coach Joe Mazzulla cut Boston's rotation to eight players, and each of his starters played at least 32 minutes, with four starters playing at least 37 minutes. Depth is important to overcome foul trouble and injuries during the course of the 82 game regular season, but in the playoffs the top teams often put their best players on the court for extended minutes and challenge the opposing team to keep up.
Dejounte Murray led the Hawks with 25 points, and he tied Clint Capela for the team lead with eight rebounds, but he shot just 10-25 from the field. The often-hyped Trae Young managed just 16 points on 5-18 field goal shooting. He had eight assists, five turnovers, and a team-worst -14 plus/minus number. This was Young's sixth playoff game since Atlanta lost in game six of the 2021 Eastern Conference Finals. Here are Young's field goal shooting numbers in those six games: 1-12, 10-20, 6-14, 3-11, 2-12, 5-18. That adds up to a .310 field goal percentage. When I call a team's playoff run "improbable" or "fluky," and when I repeatedly insist that undersized guards who don't play much defense will not lead a team to a championship, I am not being a "hater"; I am drawing conclusions based on evidence.
Danny Ainge's old quip that the NBA playoffs are not the Tour de France--meaning that Atlanta will not start out the next game behind by 13 points--remains true, but it is equally true that matchup advantages exploited in game one will likely be exploited throughout the series.
This is the one first round series that I predicted will be a sweep, and nothing that happened in game one changed my mind about that.
New York 101, Cleveland 97
It was a treat to watch and hear Hubie Brown do the color commentary for ESPN. Unless I missed something, the last telecast that he did was over a month ago. Brown, who coached the Knicks from 1982-86, noted before the game began how big of a difference Jalen Brunson has made this season for the Knicks as a scorer, playmaker, and leader, singling out Brunson's ability to finish in the paint despite not being very tall or super athletic. Brown also emphasized New York's offensive rebounding prowess. Both observations proved to be prescient: Brunson led the Knicks with 27 points while committing just one turnover, and the Knicks outrebounded the Cavaliers 51-38, including a 17-11 advantage on the offensive boards.
Julius Randle returned to action after missing five games with a sprained ankle. He shot just 7-20 from the field, but he contributed 19 points, a team-high 10 rebounds, and four assists. Josh Hart scored 17 points on 8-11 field goal shooting and he tied Randle with 10 rebounds. No other Knick scored in double figures in a low scoring, grind it out game reminiscent of how the Knicks played in the 1990s.
Donovan Mitchell scored a game-high 38 points with eight assists, five rebounds, and just two turnovers, but he did not receive quite enough help from his teammates. Darius Garland added 17 points, but he had five turnovers and just one assist. Jarret Allen had a solid game (14 points, 14 rebounds, four assists), but the Cavaliers need more from Evan Mobley (eight points on 4-13 field goal shooting, 11 rebounds). Neither Allen nor Mobley blocked a shot, and the entire Cleveland team blocked just two shots.
The Cavaliers started slowly on their homecourt, trailing 30-24 by the end of the first quarter. Foul trouble limited Brunson's first half playing time to just nine minutes, or else the Knicks may have led by more than just 50-45 at halftime. Brunson scored 21 points in 20 minutes in the second half.
The Cavaliers briefly took a one point lead in the fourth quarter, and they outscored the Knicks 27-23 in the final stanza, but they never quite made up for their slow start. The NBA is often a first quarter league--and not a fourth quarter league, as many people assert--and the tone for a playoff series is often set in game one. However, I think that in this particular series it would be premature to say that the Cavaliers are in trouble. The Knicks went just 23-18 at home during the regular season, so assuming that the Cavaliers take care of business in Cleveland in game two this series will very likely stand at 2-2 after two games are played in New York. For that to happen, the Cavaliers must do a better job of exploiting their size by playing aggressively--and efficiently--in the paint at both ends of the court.
Sacramento 126, Golden State 123
Many commentators and self-proclaimed experts have probably not seen the Kings play or understood how good this team really is, but a national TV audience got a taste in game one as the Kings withstood every punch from the reigning NBA champions. De'Aaron Fox had one of the best playoff debuts in NBA history, pouring in a game-high 38 points--including 15 in the fourth quarter with the game up for grabs--to outduel Stephen Curry, who scored 30 points in defeat. Malik Monk (32 points) teamed up with Fox to give Sacramento their version of the "Splash Brothers," as they outscored Curry and Klay Thompson, 70-51. Domantas Sabonis struggled with his shot, scoring just 12 points on 5-17 field goal shooting, but the league's leading rebounder dominated the paint with a game-high 16 rebounds as the Kings outrebounded the Warriors, 50-41. The Kings outscored the Warriors in the paint, 60-44. News flash: this year's Warriors are an undersized team that does not defend particularly well and struggles to win on the road. Assuming that the Warriors will get bigger, defend better, and start winning on the road in the playoffs after 82 games of evidence suggesting otherwise is wishful thinking, not analytical thinking.
In the first half, it looked like the Kings might die from a thousand cuts as they appeared bewildered by the challenge of simultaneously guarding the three point line and preventing backdoor cuts--but the Kings found their footing in the second half, outscoring the Warriors 71-62 as Fox (29 points) and Monk (17 points) eviscerated Golden State's defense.
Both teams struggle defensively, so expect this series to feature many high scoring shootouts. The Warriors will fight to the end; it would be very surprising to see them collapse like the Phoenix Suns did in last year's playoffs, but it should not surprise anyone who has been paying attention to see the Kings eliminate the Warriors in the first round.
Labels: Atlanta Hawks, Boston Celtics, Brooklyn Nets, Cleveland Cavaliers, De'Aaron Fox, Golden State Warriors, Jalen Brunson, James Harden, Joel Embiid, New York Knicks, Philadelphia 76ers, Sacramento Kings, Trae Young
posted by David Friedman @ 11:55 PM
4 Comments:
David,
Thx for the recap - I only watched the nightcap in full and I sure am glad that I did. Fox has been special since his Kentucky days and it’s time the rest of the national audience catches up to witness just how elite he and Sabonis are. Sabonis had a horrid game from the field, but as Doris Burke noted on the telecast, his continued effort on the boards was everything to get his team extra possessions. I would also like to note just how calm and poised De’Aaron’s reaction was post-game after winning Game 1. Not too expressive or over-the-top like a team with two 75th Anniversary members in the same state. You predicted Kings in six but I’m going to live in the moment and unabashedly call Sacramento in 4. They have the best road record of all the teams in the West and I believe they can make a surprise run all the way to the WCF.
Eric:
You're welcome!
I can't go along with Kings in four, because I expect the Warriors to win a couple games at home. The Warriors are not currently a championship caliber team, but I can't see them being swept unless they suffer major injuries.
Hi David,
Interesting game between the Warriors and Kings last night. Curry did not play badly but I thought he took some egregious shots in the fourth quarter that probably cost his team the game. The first was a needlessly deep three pointer from near the logo area and the his final shot of the game was a bizarre attempt at a floater from three point territory, even though he had plenty of time and room to set up for a normal jump shot. It seems sometimes that he has bought into his own hype and seeks out "highlight" shots at the expense of what his team needs to win the game.
I enjoyed how much Fox was focused on attacking the basket. He has a nice midrange game.
Keith:
Yes, that was an interesting game. In many respects, it played out as I expected: both teams are who I thought they were, but of course there is still a lot of basketball left to be played.
Curry has earned the license to take some questionable shots. I can't criticize him for the last shot, because it is difficult to get off a high percentage shot in two seconds when the opposing team knows that you have to shoot a three pointer. Last second shots tend to be low percentage shots for all players, and are somewhat overrated; I place much more value on the ability to dominate a game down the stretch as opposed to hitting last second shots.
Fox is an excellent player who played an outstanding game.
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