Facing elimination at home, the favored L.A. Lakers fell behind 6-0 to the more physical and more focused Minnesota Timberwolves, and the Timberwolves led most of the way en route to a 103-96 game five win in L.A. that left Lakers' fans with more questions than answers about their highly touted team. The Timberwolves built their biggest lead of the game, 29-15, late in the first quarter, but led by single digits for most of the game; in the fourth quarter, the Timberwolves never led by more than eight points or trailed by more than one point, but despite keeping the margin within a three possession band the Lakers could not save their season.
The Timberwolves outscored the Lakers 56-40 in the paint while outrebounding the Lakers 54-37. Rudy Gobert scored a team-high 27 points on 12-15 field goal shooting while grabbing a game-high 24 rebounds and blocking two shots. Former Laker Julius Randle contributed 23 points, five rebounds, and four assists. Anthony Edwards scored 15 points on 4-19 field goal shooting (including 0-10 from three point range), but he had 11 rebounds, a team-high eight assists, and a team-high three steals.
Luka Doncic scored a game-high 28 points and dished for a game-high nine assists, but he shot just 7-18 from the field, and with the game up for grabs he scored just three points in the fourth quarter. Rui Hachimura added 23 points on 9-16 field goal shooting. LeBron James finished with 22 points on 9-21 field goal shooting, seven rebounds, six assists, and a game-worst -14 plus/minus number. James scored five points on 2-7 field goal shooting in the fourth quarter.
During this series, the Timberwolves outscored the Lakers in the paint in four of the five games; not surprisingly, the Lakers' only win (in game two) was the only game when the Lakers held their own in the paint, tying the Timberwolves 46-46 in a 94-85 victory. Another key statistic for this series is fourth quarter scoring; although the Lakers outscored the Timberwolves by small margins in the first quarter and the third quarter, in the fourth quarter they averaged 17.0 ppg, shot just .293 from the field, and got outscored by 8.4 ppg.
I will say more about the the Timberwolves in my preview of their second round series, but this is a good time to take a closer look at the state of the Lakers.
The Lakers' late collapses versus the Timberwolves can be explained at least partially by coaching. It is important that a coach understand matchups, time and score, the rhythm of the game, and the fatigue level of his players. The Lakers had the two best individual players in this series--four-time NBA champion LeBron James, and Luka Doncic, who led the Dallas Mavericks to the NBA Finals last year--but the Timberwolves exploited their matchup advantages in the paint while keeping James and Doncic reasonably under control without creating openings for the Lakers' supporting cast to make an impact.
The Timberwolves enjoyed a significant coaching advantage: Chris Finch versus J.J. Redick may have been the biggest mismatch in this series. Redick established multiple records in his playoff coaching debut: no coach had ever played the same five players for every minute of the second half of a playoff game until Redick did that in the game four loss, and no Lakers team had ever lost in the first round of the playoffs while seeded at least third. Redick set an unofficial record for the fewest times that a coach ever took responsibility for his team's loss.
Finch led the Timberwolves to the Western Conference Finals last year, and he is now the first coach in franchise history to advance past the first round in back to back seasons. In contrast, Redick is a first year NBA coach with no prior coaching experience beyond the youth level, and his NBA playoff coaching resume now shows a 1-4 record while coaching the third seeded team versus the sixth seeded team. When a reporter asked Redick a reasonable question about his substitution patterns, Redick arrogantly scoffed, "Weird assumption" before storming out of the press conference. Redick's combination of arrogance with lack of knowledge is not likely to lead to sustained success.
After the Lakers made the stunning trade with Dallas to acquire Doncic in exchange for Anthony Davis, I wrote, "Even if Doncic and James both average 30 ppg the rest of the way, the Lakers may not be able to score enough points, get enough rebounds, and get enough stops to win consistently; they desperately need to add at least one competent defensive big man before the trade deadline to have any hope of getting past the first round of the playoffs." I should have heeded my own words when I made my 2025 Playoff Predictions, but I somehow convinced myself that the Lakers would squeak by the Timberwolves before losing in the second round. The overarching point of my initial analysis was correct: the Lakers will not be a legit championship contender until they beef up their frontcourt, much like the Mavericks did last season by adding Daniel Gafford. The Lakers have a multi-year timeframe to build around the 26 year old Doncic, who is already one of the NBA's five best players and should be just entering his prime years.
It is not clear how the Lakers can reconcile Luka Doncic's long term timeframe with the year to year timeframe of 40 year old LeBron James. In The Paradox of LeBron James, I wrote, "LeBron James baffles and mystifies me more than any other great player who I have observed and/or studied, so it is only fitting that as he enters the final stage of his career he continues to be baffling and mystifying." James is without question one of the greatest players of all-time; anyone who suggests otherwise is biased, foolish, or both. James is also without question the most productive 40 year old player in NBA history. This season, he averaged 24.4 ppg, 8.2 apg, and 7.8 rpg while shooting .513 from the field; those would be career-best numbers for many Hall of Famers, but overall this was a below average season for James. It is not reasonable to blame a 40 year old for not being able to lead a team on a deep playoff run when no other 40 year old has been able to do that--but James is not being paid like a 40 year old player who cannot carry a team: he is the 14th highest paid player in the NBA.
How can the Lakers methodically build around Doncic with the idea of having sustained long term success while at the same time dealing with James on a year to year basis as one of the league's highest paid players? This is not just about salary cap space, either. With the exception of his four years in Miami--the most successful four years of his career from the standpoint of team success--James runs the show when he joins a team, meaning that he picks the coach and he picks the roster; that is why his former podcast partner Redick is the coach, and that is why the Lakers drafted his son Bronny instead of filling that roster spot with a veteran player who could contribute now. One would expect that a team with a highly paid 40 year old would be in win now mode, hiring an experienced championship-level coach and stacking the roster with proven veterans, but this particular 40 year old has different ideas.
The reality is that even though James is more productive than any player his age has ever been and even though he is more productive right now than all but a handful of current players, the Lakers are not going to win another title as long as he is not only on the team but running the show. In James' seven years with the Lakers, they won one "bubble title" in 2020 (James' second year in L.A.), made one fluky run to the 2023 Western Conference Finals, lost in the first round three times, and twice did not even make the playoffs. The Lakers knew that their most recent trip to the Western Conference Finals was fluky, and that is why in short order they fired the coach and remade the roster, which are not steps that management takes if that team is built for sustained success. The Lakers won the "bubble title" with a 35 year old James and a huge frontcourt that dominated the paint; now, James is five years older, his team lacks size, and his one L.A. title looks more fluky each year that he keeps getting bounced in the first round despite playing alongside first Anthony Davis and now Luka Doncic.
It will be fascinating to see the moves that the Lakers make--and don't make--prior to next season. If they are truly thinking about how to build a perennial contender around Doncic then they will hire an experienced NBA coach, they will get rid of James, his son, and other players who are unlikely to be rotation players on a championship team for the next several years, and they will use the open salary cap space and roster spots to acquire players whose skills mesh with Doncic's. Mind you, it is almost inconceivable that the Lakers will do any of those things, which means that they have not yet shifted their thinking from "LeBron runs the show" to "This is Luka's team."
Doncic when healthy(which seems like only about 50% of the time so kinda irrelevant) is better than Edwards, but James isn't. I thought Edwards played like the best player in this series, too. Doncic had slightly more production but was barely moving for much of game 5 and gives much less effort than Edwards overall except when he's complaining to the officials which ends up being most of the game unfortunately.
ReplyDeleteThe Lakers are a very good team, but so is Minnesota. Yes, Finch was better than the Lakers didn't play their one center(Hayes) much for some reason. Gobert had the game of his life in game 5, but for the first 4 games he was basically a complete no-show averaging 4 and 6, shooting 4-13 combined. Crazy how game 5 was so much different for him.
It seems like Dallas knew exactly what they're talking about regarding Doncic not being in good-enough shape and lazy. But, he still has lots of time to figure it out, but time runs out quicker than most players expect.
The Lakers might've realized what they were doing after the 2023 playoffs, but then why didn't they somehow realize about this season that you actually need a competent center amongst other things? Is making 2 WCF in 4 seasons fluky?
Anonymous:
ReplyDeleteThe Lakers were the higher seeded team with, at worst, two of the best three players in the series (if we buy your premise that Edwards has surpassed James), yet the Lakers lost in five games. That is significant underachievement for a team that the "experts" called a championship contender prior to the playoffs.
Regardless of Gobert's individual stats, the Timberwolves killed the Lakers in the paint while Redick watched and made snide comments to the media. He did not speed the game up to take advantage of his perimeter players, he did not even attempt to use the bigs on his roster, but he assured everyone that--all appearances to the contrary---he knows exactly what he is doing. He did manage to "accomplish" something that no other Laker coach has ever done: he lost in the first round with the third seeded team.
Doncic is good enough to be the best player on a championship team, but he needs a different roster around him than the Lakers have. Yes, he should get in better shape and play better defense, but if I ran a team I would rather have 10 more years of him than five more years of Davis, who is even more injury-prone than Doncic.
In general, I would say that two WCF appearances in four seasons would not be fluky, but with the Lakers both appearances were unusual: in 2020, they had a break to recuperate and all playoff games were held in one location (yes, it was the same for everyone, but a break and lack of travel would help older players like James more than it would help other players), and in 2023 they beat a Memphis team that wasn't ready (as subsequent seasons have confirmed) and then beat a 6th seeded Golden State team that had been fortunate to win in the first round. The Lakers' 4-0 loss to Denver in the 2023 WCF was an accurate gauge of how far that team was from actually being a contender.
James should've been 1-6 in the fourth, but he pulled out his LeBron special and got a meaningless layup with only seconds to go and the game completely out of reach. The funny thing is, that will boost his data set fourth quarter scoring and %, despite being worth nothing.
ReplyDeleteThe Lakers have a really good team that fits well with Luka's skillset. The one piece that makes zero sense is LeBron. He doesn't fit with Luka at all. If the Lakers want to build a winner, I agree they need to ship LeBron out. (I've been saying this for years lol).
If they can trade LeBron for a starting caliber center and a shooter, this team has all the other pieces to have a championship caliber team.
They'd be two deep at every position, with rangy wing defenders, a secondary playmaker and clutch time scorer in Reaves (though, he played poorly in game five).
But of course, they won't do this. They'll scramble to find pieces that fit around both Luka and LeBron...and since only players like Giannis, AD, Bam, and Wemby could actually cover for both LeBron and Luka's defensive shortcomings, there is no realistic solution out there. Which means the Lakers will have similar results to this season.
If I'm Luka, I am not signing that extension this summer. Instead opting to play out 25/26 and choose where I want to go this time next year. Why put up with the LeBron circus (and the never wrong coaching of Redick...or whoever LeBron chooses to replace Redick with) for longer than he needs to? He'd have a LeBron-like opportunity to take his talents to the team of his choice at the age of 27.
Luka never got the amount of vitriol from fans and negative national media coverage with the Mavs like he's gotten with the Lakers. This is the LeBron effect and it doesn't matter that Luka is clearly better than LeBron. Luka's 37 was deemed "worthless" while LeBron's 38 was exceptional, despite both coming in losses.
The Lakers will never amount to anything unless they separate themselves from the loser mentality of LeBron James.
Thankfully, the NBA will no longer talk about LeBron as much now that he's been eliminated, so we can enjoy the other actual good players still competing for a championship.
I would certainly take Edwards over James for many reasons, including outplaying him in this series. The Lakers won 50 games compared to Minnesota's 49 games. Both of these teams are quite similar overall. It would've been an underachievement for both teams losing in the 1st round. Tough 1st round matchup. I don't really care what the experts say usually. I think both of these teams are fringe contenders, and someone has to lose.
ReplyDeleteI never said Redick is a good coach. It was a bizarre hire and I doubt he'll do great. But, he does deserve some credit for getting them to 50 wins and the #3 seed to begin with. But, he obviously struggled in this series.
Sure, Doncic is good enough. But, there's a lot to be desired there. I don't understand the trade that Dallas made, but they weren't wrong about many things concerning Doncic.
I know what you're saying about the Lakers making those 2 WCF. But yet, you recently said Miami making 2 Finals in the same span of 4 years wasn't fluky, even though they had even more bizarre situations occur to get them there.
Jordan:
ReplyDeleteThe Lakers need big men. Just getting rid of LeBron would not help. Getting rid of LeBron to get quality big men would help, but I can't agree with your statement that the only thing wrong with the Lakers can be cured just by getting rid of LeBron.
I wouldn't say that LeBron has a "loser mentality"--after all, he has won four titles, including one with the Lakers--but I would say that he is not as singularly focused on winning as players like Jordan and Kobe were.
Anonymous:
ReplyDeleteLeBron is a better rebounder and passer than Edwards, and LeBron is a more efficient scorer. LeBron is not as good defensively as he was during his prime, but when he is focused he is still a better defender than Edwards. James is also significantly bigger, and that matters. A case can be made for Edwards at this stage of their careers--based on Edwards' explosiveness, energy, and overall health--but it is not as clear cut as you seem to be suggesting.
Yes, the Western teams were bunched together in the standings, but the third seed should not lose 4-1 to the sixth seed. That is underachievement. If the Lakers had lost in seven games with the seventh game being close then maybe you could make the "Both teams are good and someone had to lose" argument, but that argument does not fly when the favorite loses 4-1.
Imagine a team with Luka and LeBron that had a competent NBA coach--not even a great coach, but just a competent one. Can you picture that team losing 4-1 in the first round? I can't. Luka made it to the NBA Finals last season with Kyrie Irving as his second best player. Yes, the Mavericks had better bigs than the Lakers have now, but a good coach would have done more with the Lakers than Redick did.
"Fluky" is a subjective label, so neither of us is going to convince the other one. I would just note that Miami's two Finals runs featured the same coach, the same core players, and the same core philosophy. Also, the Heat reached the ECF three times in four years. That is very consistent and does not look fluky.
The Lakers reached the WCF --one round short of the Finals, but a big round--twice with different coaches, different philosophies, and without having to travel at all in 2020. I would argue that the second WCF run was fluky for sure, while the 2020 title was perhaps not fluky so much as unusual due to the "bubble" situation.
Thursday, May 01, 2025 11:25:06 PM