2024-25 NBA Playoff Predictions
For the fifth consecutive season, the NBA used a Play-In Tournament to determine the seventh and eighth seeds in each conference (the NBA
also had a Western Conference Play-In Game during the 2020 "bubble" in Orlando). The Orlando Magic and the Miami Heat claimed the final
two Eastern Conference playoff spots, while the Golden State Warriors and the Memphis Grizzlies earned the final two Western Conference playoff spots.
Prior to the 2025 Play-In Tournament, I picked Orlando, Chicago, Golden State, and Memphis to emerge as qualifiers,
so my record for correctly picking the Play-In Tournament
qualifiers is 3-1 in 2021, 3-1 in 2022, 2-2 in 2023, 3-1 in 2024, and 3-1 in 2025.
Before explaining my playoff predictions, here is a recap of some of the most significant stories from the 2024-2025 NBA season.
The Oklahoma City Thunder had a historic season with minimal fanfare, setting the record for point differential (12.87 ppg) by surpassing a mark held for more than 50 years by one of the most legendary teams in pro basketball history: the 1971-72 Wilt Chamberlain-Jerry West L.A. Lakers went 69-13 with a point differential of 12.28 ppg en route to capturing the NBA title. Those Lakers also held the single season wins record until the Michael Jordan-Scottie Pippen Chicago Bulls went 72-10 in 1995-96; the Bulls fell just short of posting back to back 70 win seasons, going 69-13 in 1996-97. The 2015-16 Golden State Warriors now hold the single season wins record (73-9), but the Warriors squandered a 3-1 lead and lost to the Cleveland Cavaliers in the NBA Finals, thus removing themselves from the greatest team of all-time conversation. The Thunder's league-best 68-14 record is tied for sixth-seventh all-time with the 1972-73 Boston Celtics; the 1973 Celtics and the 2016 Warriors are the only teams to not capture the NBA championship after winning at least 68 regular season games--and that is the lofty standard by which the 2025 Thunder will be judged: if they win a championship then they will rank among the greatest single season teams of all-time, but if they don't win a championship then their season will be relegated to a historical footnote.
Before the season, I picked the Thunder as the second best team in the Western Conference. I expressed skepticism about their championship credentials because they tanked to fill out their roster around Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and tanking does not work, but despite the way part of this roster was built it is difficult to find a weakness with this team: the Thunder ranked first in defensive field goal percentage, first in steals, first in fewest turnovers committed, first in turnovers forced, second in blocked shots, third in points allowed, and fourth in points scored. One could nitpick that they "only" ranked 11th in rebounding, but the only legitimate reason to doubt their ability to win the 2025 NBA championship is that the Thunder have not advanced past the second round since the Kevin Durant-Russell Westbrook squad reached the 2016 Western Conference Finals. Barring injuries, the main question about the Thunder is if their lack of playoff experience will make them vulnerable against veteran playoff teams.
Oklahoma City's Mark Daigneault won the 2024 NBA Coach of the Year award and one might think that he would be a lock to capture that honor this season, but no one has ever been Coach of the Year in back to back seasons; the voters like to share the wealth, so it would appear that the two leading candidates are Cleveland's Kenny Atkinson and Detroit's J.B. Bickerstaff.
The Cleveland Cavaliers fired Bickerstaff despite advancing to the second round last season, and the Pistons promptly hired Bickerstaff to coach a team that had won 17 games and 14 games in the previous two seasons. The Cavaliers replaced Bickerstaff with Atkinson, who reached the playoffs once while coaching Brooklyn from 2016-20. It was not obvious why or how Atkinson would be an upgrade over Bickerstaff, but in retrospect it is clear that Atkinson connected very well with Cleveland's best player, Donovan Mitchell, and that consequently Mitchell bought into the idea of less is more in terms of playing time and field goal attempts. As a result, the Cavaliers started the season 15-0 and had the league's best record most of the way before finishing the season 8-7, which allowed the Thunder to pass them in the standings to gain the number one overall seed for the playoffs. Nevertheless, the Cavaliers improved from 48 wins to 64 wins without making major personnel changes, and a 16 win increase is remarkable for a team that was already very good.
Bickerstaff may not have been the right coach to lift Cleveland from solid playoff team to the top seed in the Eastern Conference, but he is a very good coach, and he proved that again by guiding the Pistons to a 44-38 record, a 30 game improvement from last season that elevated the Pistons from the Draft Lottery to their first playoff appearance since 2019. It has taken the Pistons the better part of a decade to recover from Joe Dumars' bizarre fascination with Rodney Stuckey, but Bickerstaff authored a significant one year turnaround that no one predicted. The Pistons improved from 24th in defensive field goal percentage and 26th in points allowed to ninth and 14th respectively.
A reigning NBA champion that wins 61 games does not usually fly underneath the radar, but the Boston Celtics nearly matched last season's win total (64) without getting as much attention as a 60 win team usually gets. The Celtics finished second in the Eastern Conference and third overall, and they have a sustained, proven track record for making deep playoff runs: the Celtics have reached the Eastern Conference Finals six times (2017-18, 2020, 2022-24) in the past eight years, and in 2024 they won their first NBA title since defeating the L.A. Lakers in the 2008 NBA Finals. During the 2024-25 regular season, the Celtics were just a little behind the Thunder and the Cavaliers, but the Celtics will be a tough out in the playoffs.
Many media outlets love to talk about the L.A. Lakers regardless of whether the Lakers are contenders or pretenders; for the better part of the past five years, the Lakers have been pretenders, but this season they earned a top six seed for the first time since winning the "bubble title" in 2020. The Lakers were 28-19 when they stunned the NBA by acquiring Luka Doncic from the Dallas Mavericks in exchange for Anthony Davis, and there were good reasons to believe that they were worse than their early season record. The Lakers went 22-13 after the trade, and claimed the third seed in the Western Conference on tiebreakers after finishing in a three way tie with the Denver Nuggets and the L.A. Clippers. We shall soon see if the Lakers are a legitimate third seed, or if they are a fifth seed in disguise; in the tightly bunched Western Conference they were two games behind second place Houston but just four games ahead of the cut line for the NBA Play-In Tournament. The Lakers' main strength is that they have three top notch scorers/playmakers with all-time greats LeBron James and Luka Doncic plus Austin Reaves. The Lakers are capable of scoring a lot of points, but it is not clear if they have the necessary size and defensive tenacity in the paint to win a playoff series, let alone win multiple playoff series.
This season's MVP race has been fascinating. It seems that the Thunder's Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is poised to win his first MVP award, but the Denver Nuggets' Nikola Jokic--the MVP winner in 2021, 2022, and 2024--averaged a triple double (career-high 29.6 ppg, 12.7 rpg, career-high 10.2 apg), becoming the first center and third player to accomplish that feat. Jokic ranked second in the league in assists, third in scoring, and third in rebounding. Wilt Chamberlain is the only other player to rank in the top three in scoring average, rebounding average, and assists average in the same season when he ranked fourth, first, and second respectively in 1967-68 (at that time, league leaders were determined by totals, not averages, and that season Chamberlain ranked first in total rebounds, first in total assists, and third in total points). Chamberlain was the landslide MVP winner in 1967-68.
The only players other than Jokic who averaged a triple double in a season are Oscar Robertson (30.8 ppg, 12.5 rpg, 11.4 apg in 1962-63, when he finished third in MVP voting behind Bill Russell and Elgin Baylor), and Jokic's current teammate Russell Westbrook, who averaged a triple double in a season four times (2017-19, 2021). Robertson averaged a cumulative triple double during the first five seasons of his career, finishing fifth, third, third, first, and second in MVP voting during those seasons. Westbrook won the 2017 MVP, and then finished fifth, 10th, and 11th in MVP voting in his subsequent triple double seasons as voters made the odd determination that Westbrook's triple double dominance was no longer relevant, which is perhaps similar to Chamberlain winning the MVP as a rookie after averaging a record 37.6 ppg and a record 27.0 rpg, and then not winning an MVP in the next five seasons despite averaging 38.4 ppg/27.2 rpg, 50.4 ppg/25.7 rpg, 44.8 ppg/24.3 rpg, 36.9 ppg/22.3 rpg, and 34.7 ppg/22.9 rpg. When a player makes unprecedented greatness routine, he risks making the MVP voters disinterested, dismissive, or jealous.
The eye test and the numbers show that when Jokic is on the court the Denver Nuggets have a highly efficient offense but when he is off of the court the Nuggets' offense performs at the level of a Draft Lottery team. It is difficult to overstate the impact that Jokic has not just in terms of posting gaudy individual numbers but in terms of boosting his team's effectiveness. Jokic is not a great individual defender but he is a smart team defender and an elite defensive rebounder who also ranked second in the league in steals this season.
I have consistently stated that the MVP should go to the best all-around player in the league, with the only exception being if there is a dominant big man who is having the most impact even though he is not the best all-around player (for example, Shaquille O'Neal deserved several MVP awards based on his dominance, even though he was not the best all-around player). Jokic is a rare player who checks both boxes: he is the league's best all-around player and he is also a dominant big man. Other than the lame excuse of "voter fatigue" or the media's incessant quest to create a different prevailing narrative each season, it is difficult to understand why Jokic would not win the MVP award this season.
The above analysis is not meant to take anything away from Gilgeous-Alexander, who without question played at an MVP level, winning his first scoring title by averaging a career-high 32.7 ppg while also setting a career-high in assists (6.4 apg) and ranking fifth in steals (1.7 spg). He is a solid rebounder for a guard (5.0 rpg), and he is a very efficient scorer from all levels, with shooting splits of .519/.375/.898. The main case for Gilgeous-Alexander, who finished second in MVP voting behind Jokic last season, is that he is the best player on the league's best team. However, if impact on team performance is going to be a factor in MVP voting then we also have to consider the relative strength of each MVP candidate's supporting casts--and no one would argue that Jokic has a better or deeper supporting cast in Denver than Gilgeous-Alexander does in Oklahoma City. It is easy to picture Jokic leading this Thunder team to a great regular season record and a deep playoff run, because Jokic led a weaker Denver team to the 2023 NBA title. The point is that Jokic has already proven that he can carry a team to a championship, while Gilgeous-Alexander seems capable of doing so but has not yet accomplished that feat. If a legitimate argument could be made that these two players have similarly strong supporting casts, then perhaps Oklahoma City's superior record could be an MVP tiebreaker--but because that is not the case, I am disinclined to give Gilgeous-Alexander the MVP based on team record.
I don't have a huge problem with Gilgeous-Alexander winning the MVP; unlike some players who have won the award, he did play at an MVP level this season, so I would say that he is an MVP caliber player but that he is not this season's MVP because Jokic had an even better season.
Jokic and Gilgeous-Alexander will finish 1-2 in the voting, as they should, and either order is acceptable, but it would be nice if the voters looked at overall impact as opposed to crafting a narrative ("Gilgeous-Alexander transformed his game to become the best player on the best team in the league, while Jokic's Nuggets barely earned a top four seed").
Giannis Antetokounmpo had an MVP caliber season as well, averaging 30.4 ppg (second in the league), 11.9 rpg (sixth), and 6.5 apg while shooting .601 from the field (sixth). Antetokounmpo is the only player in pro basketball history to average at least 30 ppg while shooting at least .600 from the field, a feat that he has now accomplished in consecutive seasons. He has finished fourth or higher in MVP voting in each of the past six seasons (including winning the honor in 2019 and 2020), and he should finish in the top four again this season.
Jayson Tatum was judged by Steve Kerr to be not quite good enough to crack the starting lineup for Team USA's Olympic gold medal winning squad last summer, but Tatum maintained his status as a top five NBA player by averaging 26.8 ppg (fifth in the league), 8.7 rpg, and a career-high 6.0 apg.
Donovan Mitchell is not as physically imposing as the other MVP candidates, and he is the worst defensive player in the group, but he deserves a lot of credit for modifying his playing style to maximize his team's potential. As the best player on the top seeded team in the Eastern Conference, he earned some top five MVP votes; he should not receive any first place votes, but Mitchell played at an All-NBA First Team level this season. Mitchell averaged 24.0 ppg, 5.0 apg, and 4.5 rpg.
Here are my first round predictions:
Eastern Conference
#1 Cleveland (64-18) versus #8 Miami (37-45)
The Cavaliers did not finish the season strongly, and it remains to be seen if that is a sign of a crack in their armor or merely boredom setting in after wrapping up the Eastern Conference's top seed. Cleveland led the NBA in scoring (121.9 ppg), ranked second in field goal percentage (.491), rebounded well (45.4 rpg, sixth in the league), and finished third in defensive field goal percentage (.454); last season, with the same core group of players, the Cavaliers ranked 20th in scoring (112.6 ppg), 12th in field goal percentage (.479), 17th in rebounding (43.3 rpg), and sixth in defensive field goal percentage (.463). In short, the Cavaliers remained a good defensive team while becoming much more productive and efficient on offense.
As mentioned above, Donovan Mitchell had an All-NBA First Team caliber season. Darius Garland (20.6 ppg, team-high 6.7 apg) earned his second All-Star selection, and Evan Mobley (career-high 18.5 ppg, 9.3 rpg, team-high 1.6 bpg) made the All-Star team for the first time. Jarrett Allen (13.5 ppg, team-high 9.7 rpg) and midseason acquisition Deandre Hunter (14.3 ppg as a Cavalier, primarily as a bench player) round out an imposing and versatile quintet. Ty Jerome set career highs in scoring (12.5 ppg) and three point field goal percentage (.439, fourth in the NBA) as a long range sniper off of the bench.
The Miami Heat looked lost at sea after Jimmy Butler forced his way to Golden State, and they suffered a 10 game losing streak from March 5-March 21 to drop to 29-41 before finishing the season 8-4 to grab the last spot in the NBA Play-In Tournament. No 10th seed had ever advanced to the playoffs from the NBA Play-In Tournament--until the Heat bludgeoned the Chicago Bulls 109-90 before beating the Atlanta Hawks 123-114 in overtime. The Heat feature first-time All-Star Tyler Herro, who averaged a career-high 23.9 ppg before scoring 38 points and 30 points in the two NBA Play-In Tournament games. Center Bam Adebayo is a three-time All-Star, and Andrew Wiggins--who the Heat received in exchange for Butler--is a one-time All-Star who played a key role for Golden State's 2022 championship team.
The Cavaliers are talented, deep, and cohesive. The Miami Heat are scrappy and well-coached--and they have advanced in the playoffs as the lower seeded team before--but beating two very flawed teams in the NBA Play-In Tournament will not translate into making a deep playoff run this year. Cleveland will win in five games.
#2 Boston (61-21) versus #7 Orlando (41-41)
The Celtics did not rest on their championship laurels, breaking the record for three point field goals made in a season (1457) while ranking eighth in scoring (116.3 ppg), second in points allowed (107.2 ppg), and second in defensive field goal percentage (.450). The main concern for this team is the health/availability of their top players. Jaylen Brown recently receive a painkilling injection in his knee, and five of the top seven players in the rotation each missed at least 10 games during the regular season. Brown--who won the Larry Bird Eastern Conference Finals MVP and the Bill Russell NBA Finals MVP last season--had an ordinary season by his lofty standards (22.2 ppg, 5.8 rpg, 4.5 apg), while Jayson Tatum solidified his status as one of the NBA's five best players (as discussed above).
The Magic persevered through an injury-riddled season to qualify for the playoffs via the NBA Play-In Tournament. They are a physical, grind it out team led by Paolo Banchero (25.9 ppg, 7.5 rpg, 4.8 apg), who played in just 46 games but is healthy now. Losing Jalen Suggs (16.2 ppg) to season-ending knee surgery was a significant blow.
The Magic won the season series versus the Celtics 2-1, and there is no doubt that their size and physicality bother the Celtics, but if the Celtics are at full strength they have too much talent and too much offensive firepower for the Magic to handle in a seven game series. Boston will win in five games.
#3 New York (51-31) versus #6 Detroit (44-38)
The Knicks won one more game than they did last season, but the national media narrative about this team focuses on their poor record against the best teams in the Eastern Conference; it is interesting to see how narratives are shaped based on expectations: when the Knicks were terrible, a 51 win season would have been considered great, but now that the Knicks have had some recent postseason success they are held to a higher standard.
Jalen Brunson finished fifth in MVP balloting last season after averaging a career-high 28.7 ppg in 77 games, but this season his production dropped to 26.0 ppg in 65 games. He recently returned to action after suffering a right ankle sprain. He averaged 32.4 ppg in last year's playoffs before suffering a broken left hand in the Knicks' game seven loss to the Indiana Pacers. Brunson is strong and tough, but as a smaller player he is likely to continue to be injury-prone, just because of the reality of absorbing so much physical pounding versus bigger players.
The acquisition of Karl-Anthony Towns (24.4 ppg, 12.8 rpg) improved the Knicks' offense but hurt the team defensively. OG Anunoby (18.0 ppg), Mikal Bridges (17.6 ppg), and Josh Hart (13.6 ppg, 9.6 rpg, 5.9 apg) all had very productive seasons.
Cade Cunningham (26.0 ppg, 9.1 apg, 6.1 rpg) is a rising star for the Pistons, who were perhaps the most surprising team in the league this season. The Pistons are a young team, but they are talented and feisty. They won the season series versus the Knicks 3-1, but the playoffs are different than the regular season. Brunson is a proven clutch performer, and he will be the difference in a fiercely contested series. New York will win in seven games.
#4 Indiana (50-32) versus #5 Milwaukee (48-34)
The Pacers started this season 9-14 and looked like they would struggle just to reach the NBA Play-In Tournament, but they closed the season with a 12-3 sprint to lock up the fourth seed and homecourt advantage in at least the first round. Pascal Siakam led the team in scoring (20.2 ppg on .519 field goal shooting), while Tyrese Haliburton ranked second in scoring (18.5 ppg) and first in assists (9.2 apg, third in the league after ranking first with 10.9 apg in 2023-24).
The Bucks enter the playoffs riding an eight game winning streak, but several of the victories were against weak opponents (including New Orleans twice, Philadelphia, and Phoenix). As discussed above, Giannis Antetokounmpo had yet another MVP caliber season. Damian Lillard averaged 24.9 ppg and 7.1 apg, but he played in just 58 games this season and he will miss at least the start of the playoffs due to a blood clot. Trading injury-prone Khris Middleton for the younger and bigger Kyle Kuzma provided a midseason boost for the Bucks. When the Bucks are at full strength they can look quite good, but they were not at full strength often enough this season and they are unlikely to be at full strength during this series.
The Pacers beat the Bucks 4-2 in the first round last year despite not having homecourt advantage, but Antetokounmpo missed the entire series due to injury while Lillard only played in four of the six games. The Pacers also won the regular season series 4-1 in 2023-24, but this season the Bucks won the season series 3-1. Antetokoumpo will post monstrous numbers, but Indiana will win in seven games.
Western Conference
#1 Oklahoma City (68-14) versus #8 Memphis (48-34)
The Thunder built their roster by a shrewd deal trading Paul George to the L.A. Clippers for Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (and other considerations, including five draft picks, one of which became Jalen Williams) in 2019, followed by two seasons of tanking (22-50 in the abbreviated 2020-21 season, 24-58 in the 2021-22 season) to hoard draft picks/trade collateral. In the past three seasons, the Thunder went 40-42, 57-25 (first in the Western Conference), and 68-14 (best record in the league, and tied for the sixth best record all-time). I hate tanking because it does not work, because it violates the spirit of competition, and because it rips off fans who pay for tickets, but the Thunder tanked in an unusual way in that they acquired their franchise player first, and then attempted to build a sound foundational culture even amidst the losing. I still don't like it, but the Thunder's process was a little more organic and natural--surround Gilgeous-Alexander with young players who can grow up with him--than Philadelphia's "Process" of stripping a playoff team to the studs and rolling the dice that their franchise player would be available in the Draft (hint: there is a ton of evidence proving that Joel Embiid, despite his unquestionable talent, does not have the mentality or physical durability necessary to be a franchise player).
This season, the Thunder feasted on the league's five worst teams, going a combined 14-0 versus Charlotte, New Orleans, Philadelphia, Utah, and Washington, but they also went a combined 17-6 against the teams that won at least 50 games (Boston, Cleveland, Denver, Houston, Indiana, the L.A. Clippers, the L.A. Lakers, and the New York Knicks). Statistically, they are one of the greatest regular season teams of all-time, and their roster includes a nice balance of size, speed, youth, and experience. MVP candidate Gilgeous-Alexander is their best player, but Jalen Williams (21.6 ppg, 5.6 rpg, 5.1 apg) earned his first All-Star selection, Chet Holmgren averaged 15.0 ppg, 8.0 rpg, and 2.2 bpg in 32 games, Isaiah Hartenstein (11.2 ppg, team-high 10.7 rpg, 3.8 apg) provided rebounding and physicality, and Lu Dort played excellent defense along with supplemental scoring/three point shooting (10.1 ppg/.412 3FG%).
The Memphis Grizzlies held the second spot in the Western Conference at times during this season, but there is no special prize for dropping from second place to eighth place--other than earning the toughest possible first round matchup. Ja Morant (23.2 ppg, 7.3 apg in 50 games this season) can be spellbinding at times and a knucklehead at other times. Desmond Bane (19.2 ppg, 6.1 rpg, 5.3 apg, .484/.392/.894 shooting splits) is Memphis' most reliable player. The Grizzlies fired Coach Taylor Jenkins when they were 44-29, and they closed the season 4-5 with interim Coach Thomas Iisalo at the helm.
The Grizzlies navigated a bumpy season before qualifying for the playoffs via the NBA Play-In Tournament, and despite the media hype surrounding them the reality is that the Thunder easily swept them during the regular season. Oklahoma City will win in four games.
#2 Houston (52-30) versus #7 Golden State (48-34)
The Houston Rockets ranked first in the league in rebounding (48.5 rpg), sixth in points allowed (109.8 ppg), sixth in defensive field goal percentage (.459), and 11th in turnovers committed (13.9 tpg). They are a physical team that is difficult to score against and that values possessions. Their biggest weakness is shooting; they ranked 21st in both field goal percentage and three point field goal percentage. Jalen Green led the team in scoring (21.0 ppg) and he is a classic "scares us, scares them" player: he could explode for 40 points in a game, or he could detonate his team's chances with questionable shot selection. Alperen Sengun (19.1 ppg, 10.3 rpg, 4.9 apg) is Houston's best all-around player. Point guard Fred VanVleet (14.1 ppg, 5.6 apg) led the team in minutes played (35.2 mpg) and assists; he is a steadying hand with championship experience as a key rotation player for Toronto's 2019 title team. VanVleet averaged 14.0 ppg versus the Warriors in the 2019 NBA Finals.
Golden State was a mediocre team at best before acquiring Jimmy Butler from the Miami Heat. The Warriors have been a better team since the trade, but after losing two of their final three regular season games they were forced to win an NBA Play-In Tournament game versus Memphis to qualify for the playoffs. At 37 years old, Stephen Curry is still a deadly scorer/shooter, but his 24.5 ppg scoring average was his lowest since he averaged 20.8 ppg in five games in his injury-shortened 2019-20 season, and it was his lowest full season scoring average since he scored 23.8 ppg in 2014-15. The 35 year old Butler averaged 17.9 ppg in 30 games with the Warriors before erupting for 38 points versus Memphis in the NBA Play-In Tournament.
Golden State won the season series, 3-2, but the last time these teams played with their current rosters was April 6, 2025, and the Rockets won that game, 106-92. Dillon Brooks led the Rockets with 24 points, and the Rockets held Butler to 13 points on 4-7 field goal shooting while limiting Curry to three points on 1-10 field goal shooting. No one should expect Butler or Curry to play that poorly in any game in this series, but the point is that Houston's physicality can pose challenges for the Warriors. Houston has been the better team all season long, and the Rockets have game seven at home if necessary. Houston will win in six games.
#3 L.A. Lakers (50-32) versus #6 Minnesota (49-33)
The Lakers feature Luka Doncic--one of the league's five best players, who would be in the MVP conversation had he played in enough games this season--alongside LeBron James and Austin Reaves, meaning that they have three players who can initiate the offense by scoring or playmaking. Doncic, who earned five straight All-NBA First Team selections prior to this season, has been a top five player for the past five seasons and could easily be a top five player for the next decade.
Regardless of how the LeBron James era in L.A. ends, the Luka Doncic era has begun, which means that if the Lakers build shrewdly around Doncic they can be a contender for the foreseeable future. Doncic averaged 28.2 ppg, 8.1 rpg, and 7.5 apg in 28 games with the Lakers, and he is the first player who played alongside James without having to take a back seat. Whether because of age or just his respect for Doncic, James has handed over the reins to Doncic, but James is still productive: he averaged 24.4 ppg, 7.8 rpg, and 8.2 apg this season. James earned his record 21st All-Star selection, and he will likely make one of the All-NBA Teams as well. Reaves is the poor man's Doncic: not as good offensively and even worse on defense, but still capable of causing problems with his scoring (career-high 20.2 ppg) and passing (career-high 5.8 apg).
Anthony Edwards had another excellent season, setting career highs in scoring (27.6 ppg) and three point field goal percentage (.395). The Timberwolves need him to attack the hoop and not just settle for three pointers versus the Lakers, because by attacking the hoop he can break down the defense to create opportunities for his teammates while also getting the Lakers in foul trouble. After playing just 46 games with the Knicks in 2023-24, Julius Randle averaged 18.7 ppg, 7.1 rpg, and 4.7 apg in 69 games in his first season with Minnesota; the former Laker could play a key role in this series if he attacks the paint instead of settling for jump shots. Naz Reid provides scoring and physicality off of the bench, and four-time Defensive Player of the Year Rudy Gobert must be a force in the paint at both ends of the court for Minnesota to win.
In this series, I don't trust J.J. Redick's coaching versus Chris Finch's coaching, but I am also mindful that TNT's Charles Barkley has justifiably called the Timberwolves "dumb as rocks" based on some questionable decision making by their players. Finch must understand that the way to beat the Lakers is to attack them in the paint, but will his players execute that game plan? The Lakers lack size and one would expect that to hurt them defensively, but they have been able to mask their deficiencies on that side of the court by scoring a lot of points and relying on some gimmicky defenses. That is not a formula for a deep playoff run, but with homecourt advantage in their back pocket they should have just enough to get past the Timberwolves. L.A. will win in seven games.
#4 Denver (50-32) versus #5 L.A. Clippers (50-32)
The Nuggets won at least 50 games for the third season in a row despite a tumultuous campaign that included the firing of Coach Michael Malone and General Manager Calvin Booth with three games left in the regular season. The Nuggets went 3-0 under interim Coach David Adelman to lock up the fourth seed and homecourt advantage for at least one round.
Earlier in this article, I discussed Nikola Jokic's sensational season that should result in him winning his fourth regular season MVP. Jamal Murray put up solid numbers (21.4 ppg, 6.0 apg) this season, but he only showed flashes of the form that he displayed during the team's championship run two years ago. Michael Porter Jr. finished second on the Nuggets in scoring (18.2 ppg, his highest scoring average since he averaged 19.0 ppg in the 2020-21 season). Christian Braun averaged a career-high 15.4 ppg while starting 77 out of 79 games. Aaron Gordon is a reliable threat from the "dunker" spot (14.7 ppg) who shot a career-high .436 from three point range. Russell Westbrook's energy and unselfishness were a net positive for the Clippers last season, and he filled a similar role for the Nuggets this season, averaging 13.3 ppg, 6.1 apg, and 4.9 rpg. Media members love making Westbrook a scapegoat, but the reality is that Westbrook quickly developed great chemistry with Jokic and was productive both as a starter and as a reserve.
The Nuggets are not good defensively, but they ranked first in field goal percentage (.506) and third in points scored (120.8 ppg). The biggest question about this team is if they can elevate their defense enough so that their efficient offense can carry the day. The second biggest question about this team revolves around health/depth; they do not have enough depth to absorb injuries or foul trouble.
The Clippers finished the regular season with an eight game winning streak to secure the fifth seed and avoid falling into the NBA Play-In Tournament. That run corresponded with the return to healthy form of Kawhi Leonard, who played in seven of those eight games and scored at least 20 points in all seven of the games that he played. Leonard missed the first 34 games of the season, and ended up averaging 21.5 ppg, 5.9 rpg, and 3.1 apg in 37 games, including 26.7 ppg, 6.3 rpg, and 3.7 apg in six games in April. When Leonard is healthy, the two-time NBA Finals MVP (2014, 2019) is a special player, but he has not made it through a playoff run unscathed since 2020, when the Nuggets beat the Clippers in seven games in the second round. Leonard missed the entire 2021-22 season due to injury, and he played in just four of a possible 11 playoff games in the past two years. The sad reality is that it is unlikely that the nearly 34 year old Leonard can make it through the playoffs without getting injured; he plays an efficient but physical brand of basketball that his body cannot seem to withstand.
James Harden led the Clippers in scoring (22.8 ppg) and assists (8.7 apg, fifth in the league) and was selected as an All-Star for the first time since 2022. He posted the second-worst field goal percentage of his career (.410) and had the second most turnovers in the league (341, fourth highest total of his career), but if you follow how the media covers the league then you know that shooting and turnovers only matter when talking about certain players; no matter what Harden does, he is always labeled "efficient." Norman Powell (career-high 21.8 ppg, shooting splits of .484/.418/.804) is the Clippers guard who should have been selected as an All-Star. Center Ivica Zubac posted career-high numbers in scoring (16.8 ppg) and rebounding (12.6 rpg, fourth in the league).
Coach Ty Lue and his assistant/defensive coordinator Jeff Van Gundy have the Clippers playing excellent defense, ranking fourth in points allowed and eighth in defensive field goal percentage. The Clippers have the advantage in this series in terms of coaching and defense, but the Nuggets have by far the best player while the Clippers have by far the worst choker, and the difference between Jokic and Harden will be the difference in this series. Harden may have a 40 point game in this series, but when the series is over he will have posted multiple "concert tour" field goal percentages and at least one "Harden" (a game with more turnovers than field goals made). Leonard will make his presence felt, but I have the sinking feeling that he will not make it through the series injury-free.
Lue and Leonard will keep the series close--the series may very well start 2-2--but Denver will win in six games.
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Thus, I expect the second round matchups to be Cleveland-Indiana, Boston-New York, Oklahoma City-Denver, and Houston-L.A. Lakers.
The Pacers' main weapon is to speed up the game, but that should not bother a Cavaliers team that led the NBA in scoring. The Pacers are not strong enough on defense or on the boards to beat the Cavaliers in a seven game series. Cleveland will win in six games
The Knicks struggled all season versus the elite teams, including an 0-4 record versus the Celtics. The sample size is more than large enough to demonstrate that the Knicks are just not good enough to win a seven game series against an elite team. Boston will win in five games.
The Thunder beat the Nuggets 102-87 in the first game of the season with the Nuggets at full strength and the Thunder missing the injured Isaiah Hartenstein, but the teams split the season series, 2-2. Jokic is a matchup nightmare for any team, but the Thunder's speed, depth, and defensive tenacity will be too much for the Nuggets. Oklahoma City will win in six games.
Houston is a physical, defensive-minded team that will punish the Lakers in the paint. This series will feature twists and turns, some Dillon Brooks shenanigans and probably at least one 40 point game by Doncic, but teams that are thrown together in the middle of the season like the Lakers were rarely make deep playoff runs. Houston will win in seven games.
Cleveland versus Boston is a series that has been anticipated ever since the Cavaliers started the season 15-0. The Cavaliers have not reached the Eastern Conference Finals since LeBron James' last season in Cleveland (2018), while the Celtics have been perennial Eastern Conference Finalists since 2017; that experience matters, and I expect the Celtics to win one of the first two games in Cleveland before finishing off the series in six games.
Oklahoma City-Houston will be a battle of young teams that could meet on this stage several times in the next few years. Before the start of the season, I still had some skepticism about the Thunder's readiness to win multiple playoff series, but 82 games of dominance this season reduced my doubt. Oklahoma City will win in six games.
The
NBA Finals will feature Boston going for a repeat and Oklahoma City trying to win a championship for the first time since the franchise relocated from Seattle in 2008. In 2022, the Celtics learned the hard way how much championship experience matters as they blew a 2-1 NBA Finals lead and lost 4-2 to the Golden State Warriors. A good case could be made that the Celtics had a better team than the Warriors in 2022, but several of Golden State's players had already won multiple championships. I would argue that the difference between the 2022 Celtics who failed to win a championship and the 2025 Thunder is that the Thunder are a more efficient, less mistake-prone team. It is difficult for a young team to win a championship, but it is also difficult to win back to back titles, a feat that has not been accomplished since the Kevin Durant-Stephen Curry Warriors did it in 2017-18. Oklahoma City will win in seven games.
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Here is a summary of the results of my previous predictions both for playoff qualifiers and for the outcomes of playoff series:
In my 2024-2025 Eastern Conference Preview I correctly picked seven of this season's eight playoff teams and I went five for eight in my 2024-2025 Western Conference Preview. Here are my statistics for previous seasons:
2024: East 7/8, West 5/8
2023: East 7/8, West 6/8
2022: East 7/8, West 5/8
2021: East 6/8, West 6/8
2020: East 7/8, West 6/8
2019: East 6/8, West 7/8
2018: East 6/8, West 6/8
2017: East 5/8, West 7/8
2016: East 5/8, West 6/8
2015: East 5/8, West 7/8
2014: East 6/8, West 6/8
2013: East 7/8, West 6/8
2012: East 8/8, West 7/8
2011: East 5/8, West 5/8
2010: East 6/8, West 7/8
2009: East 6/8, West 7/8
2008: East 5/8, West 7/8
2007: East 7/8, West 6/8
2006: East 6/8, West 6/8
That adds up to 124/160 in the East and 123/160 in the West for an overall accuracy rate of .772.
Here is my record in terms of picking the results of playoff series:
2023: 9/15
2022: 8/15
2021: 9/15
2020: 10/15
2019: 10/15
2018: 11/15
2017: 14/15
2016: 12/15
2015: 10/15
2014: 13/15
2013: 14/15
2012: 11/15
2011: 10/15
2010: 10/15
2009: 10/15
2008: 12/15
2007: 12/15
2006: 10/15
2005: 9/15
Total: 216/300 (.720)
At the end of each of my playoff previews I predict which teams will make it to the NBA Finals; in the past 20 years I have correctly picked 20 of the 40 NBA Finals participants. In five of those 20 years (including 2016 and 2017) I got both teams right and twice I got both teams right and predicted the correct result (2007, 2017). I correctly picked the NBA Champion before the playoffs began five times: 2007, 2013, 2017, 2018, 2021.
I track these results separately from the series by series predictions because a lot can change from the start of the playoffs to the NBA Finals, so my prediction right before the NBA Finals may differ from what I predicted when the playoffs began.
Labels: Boston Celtics, Cleveland Cavaliers, Donovan Mitchell, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Jayson Tatum, Nikola Jokic, Oklahoma City Thunder, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
posted by David Friedman @ 1:05 AM
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