20 Second Timeout

A Glance at Each First Round Series

The 2025 NBA playoffs started with quadrupleheaders on Saturday April 19 and Sunday April 20. A little more than one week later is a good time to examine what we have seen so far in each of the eight first round series.

Eastern Conference 

#1 Cleveland leads #8 Miami, 3-0

The Heat are the first team to finish 10th in a conference during the regular season but qualify for the playoffs via the NBA Play-In Tournament, and they are playing about as well as one might expect the 10th best team to play against the team with the best record in the Eastern Conference. Cleveland won the first two games at home, 121-100 and 121-112, before handing the Heat their worst playoff loss ever, a 124-87 shellacking in Miami. 

Although the best team will almost always win a best of seven series--barring unusual circumstances such as injuries or suspensions--it is often forgotten that each game in a series is a separate entity; the Heat will not be trailing by 37 points at the start of game four, and they may even eke out one win to send the series back to Cleveland. However, this series will end in five games at most.

The Cavaliers are playing well in all phases of the game, and they are featuring a balanced attack with seven players averaging double figures in scoring, led by Donovan Mitchell (24.3 ppg in three games) and Darius Garland (24.0 ppg in two games).

 #2 Boston leads #7 Orlando, 3-1

After Boston won game one 103-86, the next three games were each decided by nine points or less, but Boston took a commanding 3-1 series lead with a 107-98 victory yesterday. The Magic have made a concerted effort to limit Boston's vaunted three point shooting; in game four, the Celtics shot just 9-31 (.290) from beyond the arc but still prevailed behind a monster game (37 points, 14 rebounds) from Jayson Tatum. The Celtics are averaging 11.5 three point field goals made per game in this series with a .348 three point field goal percentage after making 17.8 three point field goals per game with a .368 three point field goal percentage during the regular season. This series is providing a great example of why it is important for a championship-caliber team to be able to score effectively from other areas of the court in addition to three point range: three point field goal shooting is high variance, so teams that rely too heavily on long range shooting will not be as effective in the playoffs as they were during the regular season. The Celtics have a multifaceted offensive attack, so they can counter Orlando's defensive schemes.

The Magic are a gritty and physical defensive-minded team, but they lack sufficient offensive firepower to beat the Celtics in a seven game series. The most interesting storyline from this series other than Boston's ability to win without high volume three point shooting is that several of Boston's players are banged up now, including Jayson  Tatum, Jaylen Brown, and Jrue Holiday. How much will the Celtics have in the tank for the next series? 

#3 New York leads #6 Detroit, 3-1

This is another physical series, but the unfortunate headline for this series so far is that the NBA admitted that a foul should have been called on Josh Hart as Tim Hardaway Jr. attempted a three point shot with .3 seconds remaining in the fourth quarter of yesterday's pivotal game four. If the foul had been correctly called then Hardaway Jr. would have attempted three free throws with his Pistons trailing, 94-93; if he had made at least two then the Pistons would have almost certainly won the game and tied the series at 2-2, instead of facing a 3-1 deficit and the tough task of winning game five in New York.

Much like the Boston-Orlando series, the favored team won the first game by a double digit margin (123-112) but the next three games were close as the Pistons won 100-94 to take homecourt advantage before losing 118-116 and 94-93 in Detroit. 

New York's Jalen Brunson has been the best player in the series, averaging a series-high 33.3 ppg, 8.8 apg, and 4.3 rpg with shooting splits of .460/.355/.833. Karl-Anthony Towns has been very good in his first playoff series as a Knick (22.8 ppg, 8.5 rpg, shooting splits of .530/.500/1.000). Cade Cunningham leads the Pistons in scoring (25.8 ppg) and assists (series-high 9.0 apg) while also averaging 8.8 rpg.

This has been a tremendous season for the Pistons, but the game four no-call has put them on the brink of elimination in an otherwise competitive series. 

#4 Indiana leads #5 Milwaukee, 3-1

Damian Lillard entered this series questionable due to a blood clot in his left calf, and he exited the series with what has preliminarily been reported to be an Achilles injury to his left leg, a devastating setback that has implications not just for this series but for next season and for the future of the Bucks' franchise. The Pacers would likely have eliminated the Bucks anyway, but after Lillard went down yesterday the disheartened Bucks did not put up much of a fight in a 129-103 loss.

The Pacers' high octane offense is led by Pascal Siakam (22.3 ppg), Myles Turner (15.8 ppg), Tyrese Haliburton (15.5 ppg, playoff-high 12.3 apg), and Andrew Nembhard (15.0 ppg). The Pacers are not great defensively, but they are good enough against a Milwaukee team that only has one serious offensive threat; as expected, Giannis Antetokounmpo is putting up monster numbers, leading both teams in scoring (33.8 ppg) and rebounding (14.3 rpg) while shooting .622 from the field and averaging 5.0 apg, but he does not have enough help on offense while the Bucks' defense has not been good enough, either.

Since winning the 2021 NBA title, the Bucks have fired Coach Mike Budenholzer and gotten rid of starters Khris Middleton and Jrue Holiday (who played a key role on Boston's 2024 championship team). In game four, Middleton's replacement Kyle Kuzma scored three points on 1-6 field goal shooting; he is averaging 6.0 ppg in this series while shooting .333 from the field. Lillard is Holiday's replacement, and he averaged 7.0 ppg on .222 field goal shooting in three games in this series; that is a small sample size, but the reality is that it is expected for a small guard's body to break down in his mid-thirties--and Lillard is such a defensive liability that even if he had stayed healthy it is unlikely that the Bucks would have won a title with him as the second option logging heavy minutes.

Western Conference

#1 Oklahoma City beat #8 Memphis, 4-0  

Remember all of the "experts" who told us that Memphis is not an ordinary eighth seed, and that Oklahoma City is vulnerable because of their inexperience? The Thunder tamed the Grizzlies 131-80 in game one and never looked back, although the victory margins decreased in each subsequent game.

The Thunder forced 77 turnovers while committing just 42 turnovers, which should not be surprising because during the regular season they led the league in both turnovers forced (17.0 tpg) and fewest turnovers committed (11.7 tpg). Shai Gilgeous-Alexander did not have an exceptional series by his lofty standards, but he still led both teams in scoring (27.8 ppg), albeit with an uncharacteristically bad .402 field goal percentage. His All-Star teammate Jalen Williams averaged 23.3 ppg, 5.3 rpg, and 5.3 apg. Chet Holmgren was the only other Oklahoma City player to average more than 10 ppg (18.5 ppg), but three others scored between 8.5 ppg and 9.5 ppg. 

Memphis' star guard Ja Morant missed game four due to injury, but that was actually the closest game of the series, with Oklahoma City winning 117-115. The Grizzlies have a lot of decisions to make, starting with whether to remove the interim tag from coach Tuomas Iisalo, and then extending to what to do with a roster that just does not seem good enough to win a playoff series.

#7 Golden State leads #2 Houston, 2-1

Houston started this series on a bumpy note with a 95-85 home loss to Golden State, bounced back with a 109-94 game two win as Golden State's Jimmy Butler left the game with a pelvis contusion after playing just eight minutes, and then lost game three 104-93 even though Butler did not play. The Warriors outscored the Rockets 35-22 in the fourth quarter of game three in what may turn out to be the pivotal 12 minutes of the series; prior to that point, the Rockets' physical defense had caused problems for the undersized Warriors.

Stephen Curry is having a sensational series, leading both teams in scoring (29.0 ppg) and assists (7.0 apg) while posting gaudy .526/.452/.929 shooting splits. Butler is the only other Warrior averaging more than 11 ppg and the Warriors are getting outrebouned 50.0 rpg to 38.0 rpg, but the Rockets cannot overcome their abysmal team shooting splits of .413/.330/.641. With all due respect to Golden State's defense, the Rockets are missing a lot of open shots and they are also exercising questionable shot selection at key moments. 

The Rockets need more production and consistency from Jalen Green, who is averaging 18.0 ppg on .392 field goal shooting in this series after scoring 21.0 ppg on .423 field goal shooting during the regular season. Green's game by game scoring totals in this series are seven, 38, and nine; he should be in the 18-25 point range every game, and if he does that the rest of the way then the Rockets still have a chance.

It is easy to write off the Rockets as a team that is too young and not good enough offensively to beat the veteran Warriors, but the saving grace for the Rockets may be that their size and physicality wear down the Warriors, particularly if the Rockets win game four to extend the series to at least six games. 

#6 Minnesota leads #3 L.A. Lakers, 3-1 

The story of this series is that Minnesota has dominated L.A. in the paint. Minnesota outscored L.A. in the paint 44-32 in a 117-95 game one win to seize homecourt advantage. L.A. tied Minnesota 46-46 in the paint to win game two 94-85, and then Minnesota won points in the paint 56-26 in a 116-104 game three win and Minnesota again dominated the paint (48-30) in Sunday's 116-113 win. The Lakers gave up size and defensive presence when they traded Anthony Davis for Luka Doncic; that deal will likely be great for the Lakers' long term future because Doncic projects to be an All-NBA First Team caliber player for the next decade, but in the short term the Lakers lack size in the paint and they are not consistently good defensively. 

I picked the Lakers to win this series because I thought that the scoring and playmaking of Luka Doncic, LeBron James, and Austin Reaves combined with having homecourt advantage in game seven would be just enough to get by a Minnesota team that does not always exploit its matchup advantages, but thus far the Lakers' perimeter play has not been sufficient to make up for Minnesota's size, and the series does not appear to be on track to even reach game seven in L.A. My series preview emphasized that Minnesota would enjoy a coaching advantage with Chris Finch versus J.J. Redick, and that has proven to be the case; as just one example, Redick used the same five players for all 24 second half minutes in game four, an almost unprecedented situation of not making a single substitution in a playoff game. At times, it seems like the Lakers are playing without coaching, or at least without competent NBA level coaching; they just give the ball to Doncic, James, or Reaves, and hope that whoever has the ball either scores or draws a double team that opens up a shot for another player. Redick has received largely favorable coverage from his media buddies all season, but up to this point he has one playoff win in four tries as the coach of the higher seeded team that, at least on paper, has the two best players in the series.

Doncic is putting up his typical numbers (30.8 ppg, 7.0 rpg, 5.0 apg), James is playing at a high level for any player, let alone a 40 year old (26.3 ppg, 9.5 rpg, 5.5 apg), and Reaves is doing as much as can reasonably be expected (17.3 ppg, 5.5 rpg, 4.0 apg), but the Lakers' lack of size and the defensive liabilities of Doncic and Reaves are damaging.

Anthony Edwards is leading Minnesota in scoring (29.8 ppg, including a game-high 43 points in the pivotal game four win) and assists (5.8 ppg). Julius Randle has been very good (22.5 ppg, 5.3 rpg, 4.5 apg) in his first playoff series with the Timberwolves, and Jaden McDaniels (19.8 ppg, 7.3 rpg, series-high .579 FG%) has had a big impact offensively and defensively.

#4 Denver tied with #5 L.A. Clippers, 2-2

This series looks like it will be remembered as an all-time classic, with the signature moment so far being Aaron Gordon's buzzer-beating tip-in dunk to win game four for Denver, 101-99. This is apparently the first game-winning, buzzer-beating tip-in dunk in NBA playoff history. Three of the four games have been very close, with Denver winning game one 112-110, L.A. winning game two 105-102, and Denver walking off with a dramatic two point win in game four. The only outlier is the 117-83 drubbing that L.A. delivered in game three, and that game skews the overall statistics for an otherwise closely contested series.

Nikola Jokic is leading both teams in scoring (28.5 ppg), rebounding (13.5 rpg), and assists (10.8 apg); media accounts portraying Ivica Zubac as some kind of "Jokic stopper" are bizarre, even though Zubac is having a good series (18.8 ppg, team-high 11.5 rpg). Jamal Murray (20.0 ppg, 6.0 apg) and Aaron Gordon (17.0 ppg, 6.8 rpg) have played at their usual levels, but Michael Porter Jr. (10.5 ppg, 7.3 rpg) is struggling.

Kawhi Leonard is the Clippers' leading scorer (26.5 ppg, .562 FG%) and he has had a big impact on both sides of the court. The only cautionary note with him, as always, is health/durability; he is a big, strong player who plays with force at both ends of the court, and his body tends to break down. James Harden has been solid so far (21.3 ppg, team-high 9.5 apg, .453 FG%) but--as is usually the case--he is trending downward as the series progresses: 32 points/11 assists in game one, 18 points/seven assists in game two, 20 points/nine assists in game three, and 15 points/11 assists in game four. Harden has been uncharacteristically efficient in the fourth quarters of these games, totaling 12 points on 4-7 field goal shooting with eight assists and just two turnovers, but vintage Harden often does not show up until game five; last year, the Clippers and the Dallas Mavericks were tied 2-2 before the Clippers lost 123-93 as Harden had a Draymond Green-like triple single (seven points, seven assists, four rebounds) including both "concert tour" field goal shooting (2-12) and a "Harden" with more turnovers (four) than field goals made (two). 

It is reasonable to expect greatness from Jokic and Leonard in game five, along with a typical Harden performance as well, which should add up to Denver taking a 3-2 series lead.

Labels: Boston Celtics, Cleveland Cavaliers, Denver Nuggets, Golden State Warriors, Indiana Pacers, L.A. Clippers, Minnesota Timberwolves, New York Knicks, Oklahoma City Thunder

posted by David Friedman @ 2:02 PM

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