Pacers Ride Big Fourth Quarter to Beat Thunder, Take 2-1 Series Lead
The Oklahoma City Thunder jumped out to a nine point first quarter lead, but the Indiana Pacers erased that deficit with a huge second quarter, and then used a big fourth quarter to outlast the Thunder, 116-107, to take a 2-1 series lead. The Thunder are renowned for forcing more turnovers than they commit and then pouncing on those extra possessions to score easy baskets, but in this game the Pacers scored 21 points off of 19 turnovers while giving up 14 points off of 14 turnovers. The Pacers also outscored the Thunder in the paint 50-48, and the Pacers had 17 fast break points compared to just 10 for the Thunder. The Pacers' bench outscored the Thunder's bench, 49-18. It is worth emphasizing that the Thunder changed their starting lineup before this series began--going small by inserting Cason Wallace in place of Isaiah Hartenstein--while the Pacers quite logically stuck with what has worked for them throughout the playoffs.
Role players tend to play better at home than on the road, and this game provided further evidence supporting that notion. Bennedict Mathurin scored a game-high and playoff career-high 27 points in 22 minutes off of the bench. His +16 plus/minus number was the second best in this game behind his teammate Obi Toppin (+18), who had eight points, six rebounds, and two blocked shots in 28 minutes off of the bench. T.J. McConnell became the first player in NBA Finals history with 10 points, five assists, and five steals off of the bench, posting a +12 plus/minus number in 15 minutes.
The Pacers' two big name starters made major contributions. Tyrese Haliburton scored 22 points, collected a game-high 11 assists, and grabbed a team-high nine rebounds. Pascal Siakam authored a strong all-around game with 21 points, six rebounds, four assists, and no turnovers in 32 minutes.
Jalen Williams led the Thunder with 26 points on 9-18 field goal shooting. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander had a rough game by his lofty standards, finishing with 24 points on 9-20 field goal shooting along with eight rebounds, four assists, and a game-high six turnovers; he had just set the record for most points scored in a player's first two NBA Finals games (72), breaking Allen Iverson's mark by one point. Chet Holmgren added 20 points and a game-high 10 rebounds, but he shot just 6-15 from the field.
The Thunder lost in the second round of the playoffs last year because they had a small team that could be pushed around in the paint, and that is why they acquired Hartenstein, who started 53 of the 57 regular season games that he played this season before starting each of the Thunder's first 16 playoff games. The Thunder went 45-8 in the 53 regular season games that Hartenstein started, and they went 12-4 in the 16 playoff games that he started. Hartenstein has now come off of the bench in each of the first three games of the NBA Finals, and the Thunder are 1-2 in those games. I don't know or care what the "advanced stats" say, but the statistic that matters most--wins and losses--speaks loudly, screaming, "If it ain't broke, don't fix it."
Prior to this game, Hartenstein led the Thunder in playoff field goal percentage (.619) and he ranked second in playoff rebounding (7.9 rpg). Rather than matching down to the Pacers by playing small, the Thunder would be better served by using their size to their advantage.
The problem is not just that the Thunder went small, but that they went small in a demonstrably ineffective manner. Wallace had a -15 plus/minus number in the second quarter when the Pacers outscored the Thunder, 40-28. Instead of enjoying a double digit halftime lead, the Thunder trailed by four, 60-56. The Thunder won the third quarter 29-20 with Hartenstein playing five minutes and Wallace playing less than one minute. The Thunder lost the fourth quarter 32-18 with Wallace playing five minutes (-9 plus/minus number) and Hartenstein playing three minutes (-6 plus/minus number).
This is not meant to suggest that Hartenstein and Wallace are the two most important players in this series. The point is that players are creatures of habit and repetition, as are teams; changing the starting lineup for no good reason prior to the start of the series sends a message--to both teams--that the Thunder don't think that they can win the series by doing the same things in the same way that they did to reach the NBA Finals. The impact of who is playing with whom has a ripple effect throughout the roster, and sows unnecessary uncertainty, as players wonder if they will be the next ones whose roles are changed/reduced.
The Pacers deserve full credit for playing well, and for outplaying one of the most dominant regular season teams in NBA history, but there is no getting around the fact that the Thunder's starting lineup change is a major story in this series. It is not too late for the Thunder to salvage their season and win this series, but time is running short: in NBA playoff history, teams that take a 2-1 series lead go on to win the series nearly 80% of the time, but the Thunder overcame a 2-1 deficit versus the Denver Nuggets to win the series, 4-3. Hartenstein started all seven games in that series, averaging 11.0 ppg and 8.7 rpg while shooting .590 from the field. His size and productivity made a difference in that series, and they could make a difference in the NBA Finals as well.
The good news for Thunder fans is that game to game momentum is a myth; each game in a playoff series is a separate event that starts with a 0-0 score. However, matchups and matchup advantages matter, and the team that wins the series is the team that best exploits its advantages while hiding/minimizing its disadvantages; the Thunder's size advantage will not matter if Coach Mark Daigneault refuses to exploit it.
Labels: Bennedict Mathurin, Cason Wallace, Indiana Pacers, Isaiah Hartenstein, Oklahoma City Thunder, Pascal Siakam, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, T.J. McConnell, Tyrese Haliburton
posted by David Friedman @ 1:56 AM
8 Comments:
sometimes in sports, an underdog plays with more heart. I don't watch these games, but from what I've read, that's what's happening so far, including the coaching
David,
The Thunder having changed up their starting lineup for the Finals reminds me of a mantra I live by, Woody Allen's quote: "80% of life is just showing up." The Thunder hasn't "shown up" for these Finals in the sense that the starting-five that got them here is a no-show. As you point out, The Wallace-for-Hartenstein switch-up has discombobulated the team, not only in terms of team-character as far as habits and patterns built up over a season, but Coach has also sent his team a message that the starting-five that got them to the Finals ain't quite good enough to win it. As you suggest, whatever the "analytics" may compute doesn't get at the psychological devastation Coach's decision has most likely wrought on his team.
Coach kind of reminds me of the 49ers coach in a Super Bowl a couple of years ago that elected to receive the ball first in overtime because of "analytics". He had a very pseudo-intellectualized explanation. But the common sense thing to do in that situation was receive second because that gives your team more information to work with. Having received second, you know whether your team needs 3, 6, 7, or 8 points to win or tie. 49ers coach out-coached himself then and Thunder coach is out-coaching himself now. All thanks to "analytics".
Anonymous:
I would attribute the difference in this series so far to coaching more than heart. Both teams have heart, but one team has a proven championship-winning coach and the other team has a coach making his first NBA Finals appearance.
Thought you would find this worthwhile, David.
David Greenwood, who was one of coach John Wooden's last recruits at UCLA and went on to win an NBA championship with Detroit during a 12-year pro career, has died. He was 68.
https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/45495213/david-greenwood-former-ucla-star-nba-champ-dies-68
Mitch Albom wrote a very funny article about Greenwood and Scott Hastings that I have probably read about 1,000 times in my life. Those two were a couple of jokers on the bench.
https://www.mitchalbom.com/bench-buddiespistons-hastings-greenwood-play-at-not-playing/
Greenwood's career was pretty interesting, as Albom points out. No. 2 pick the '79 draft, behind Magic Johnson, he went on to play second fiddle to Michael Jordan on the Bulls and David Robinson on the Spurs before becoming a journeyman. Those Bad Boys teams were so, so deep - especially in the frontcourt. Of course, Greenwood was a big star at UCLA prior to the NBA.
RIP.
Caruso had some crucial mistakes at the end of the game. Several Thunder plays missed free throws in that period. Thunder looked gassed at the end too. Interesting points about line up changes. Should be an interesting game 4.
TR:
Greenwood's passing is sad news. Thank you for sharing.
Anon:
The Thunder looked out of sorts and did not play as aggressively or confidently as they typically do. The Pacers deserve credit to some extent, but I would argue that many of the Thunder's mistakes are, to use tennis parlance, "unforced errors." Missed free throws and turnovers on basic inbound passes are examples of "unforced errors" that proved costly for the Thunder.
I meant to reply to the second Anonymous earlier.
I agree that misguided use of "analytics" has led to many demonstrably bad coaching (and player personnel) decisions in many sports.
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