New York Versus Cleveland Preview
Eastern Conference Finals
#3 New York (53-29) vs. #4 Cleveland (52-30)
Season series: New York, 2-1
Cleveland can win if…the Cavaliers' defense limits Jalen Brunson's scoring while also shutting down the passing lanes for Karl-Anthony Towns, whose playmaking has unlocked a new level of productivity and efficiency for the Knicks' offense. The Cavaliers will also need to get high level performances from Donovan Mitchell, Evan Mobley, and Jarrett Allen.
Mitchell averaged a team-high 28.1 ppg, 5.6 rpg, and 3.6 apg in the second round as the Cavaliers upset the number one seeded Detroit Pistons, and he shined in Cleveland's 125-94 game seven rout at Detroit with a game-high 26 points, a game-high eight assists, six rebounds, and no turnovers. After the Pistons seized a 2-0 series lead, Mitchell scored 35 points and 43 points in the next two games as the Cavaliers tied the series at 2-2 before squeezing out an overtime win on the road to take a 3-2 lead. In Mitchell's 43 point performance--a 112-103 Cleveland win--he only scored four first half points before tying Sleepy Floyd's 1987 playoff record for points in a half (39) to carry the Cavaliers to victory. Overall, Mitchell is averaging a team-high 25.6 ppg, 5.2 rpg, and 3.3 apg in the 2026 playoffs as the Cavaliers have won game seven in back to back series.
Mobley averaged 15.9 ppg, a team-high 7.4 rpg, 4.9 apg, and a team-high 2.7 bpg versus the Pistons. He is averaging 17.0 ppg, a team-high 8.0 rpg, 4.1 apg, and a team-high tying 1.9 bpg in the 2026 playoffs. Mobley has not developed into the Tim Duncan-level MVP performer that Cleveland fans hoped/dreamed that he would become, but he is a versatile big man who is capable of impacting the game in many ways at both ends of the court.
Charles Barkley criticized Allen for being too nice and too soft to be a dominant player, but Allen came up big in both of Cleveland's game seven wins: he had a game-high tying 22 points, a game-high 19 rebounds, and a game-high three blocked shots as the Cavaliers defeated Toronto 114-102, and then he contributed 23 points, seven rebounds, and one blocked shot as the Cavaliers shut down the Pistons. Allen averaged 14.7 ppg, 6.3 rpg, and 1.4 bpg versus the Pistons, and he is averaging 13.1 ppg, 7.3 rpg, and a team-high tying 1.9 bpg in the 2026 playoffs.
James Harden ranks second on the team in playoff scoring (20.1 ppg) and first in assists (6.2 apg), but he also has the second highest turnover average in the playoffs (4.8 tpg) while shooting just .415 from the field. Harden once bragged of his offensive prowess, "I'm not a system player; I am a system," but the reality is that Harden generates too many empty possessions on offense while being a traffic cone as a perimeter defender (he uses his strength and quick hands to be a solid defender in the paint on the occasions when he gets back on defense).
In my Detroit Versus Cleveland Preview, I emphasized Harden's awful elimination game resume:
His playoff career includes "concert tour" field percentages, and so many games with more turnovers than field goals made that such inverted performances should be called "Hardens." He posted "Hardens" in Cleveland's losses in game three (eight turnovers, five field goals made) and game four (seven turnovers, six field goals made) versus Toronto. Harden's elimination game resume prior to 2022 included a 2-9 record, .399 field goal percentage, and an average of nearly six turnovers per game, and then he added more sad lines to that resume by scoring 11 points on 4-9 field goal shooting in Philadelphia's 99-90 loss to Miami in 2022, by scoring nine points on 3-11 field goal shooting in Philadelphia's 112-88 loss to Boston in 2023, by scoring 16 points on 5-16 field goal shooting in the L.A. Clippers' 114-101 loss to Dallas in 2024, and by scoring seven points on 2-8 field goal shooting in the Clippers' 120-101 game seven loss to the Denver Nuggets in 2025 (he provided false hope by scoring 28 points on 10-20 field goal shooting in game six as the Clippers forced a game seven, notching his first elimination game win since 2020). Harden was shaky at best in his first elimination game with Cleveland (18 points on 3-9 field goal shooting, three assists), which foreshadows how he will likely perform in this series versus a team that is more talented and tougher than the Raptors.
The Cavaliers reached the Eastern Conference Finals for the first time since 2018 despite Harden scoring just 13.5 ppg on 5-19 field goal shooting (.263) in their two game seven wins, as Harden's elimination game resume grows (or shrinks, depending on how one looks at this).
It is often said that Harden has a high basketball IQ--but a player with a high basketball IQ would not consistently commit careless turnovers during the most important playoff games. Many commentators make excuses for Harden's recent playoff failures by citing his age, but the record demonstrates that Harden was a playoff choker as a young player and during his prime, so his collapses in the biggest playoff moments cannot and should not be attributed to age or to any factor other than a serious shortcoming in Harden's mentality for such high leverage games.
Harden may produce some good or at least decent performances early in this series, but the Cavaliers cannot count on him if the series extends to six or seven games. If the Cavaliers beat the Knicks they will do so despite Harden, not because of him. There is a heavy burden on Mitchell, Mobley, and Allen to perform not just at the All-Star level that is rightfully expected of them but even higher than that to compensate for Harden's shortcomings. The Cavaliers acquired Harden to be the difference, and he has caused internal problems on previous teams when he did not like his role, so no matter how poorly he plays it is not likely that coach Kenny Atkinson will limit Harden's role or his minutes. Harden leads the Cavaliers in playoff minutes (37.4 mpg)
New York will win because…the Knicks are the most dominant team in the 2026 NBA playoffs, ranking first in point differential (19.4 ppg), field goal percentage (.517), and three point field goal percentage (.408) while ranking second in scoring (120.4 ppg) and points allowed (101.0 ppg).
Jalen Brunson led the Knicks in scoring (29.0 ppg) as the Knicks swept the 76ers 4-0 in the second round, and his shooting splits during that series (.513/.448/.920) were exceptional. Overall during the 2026 playoffs, he is pacing the Knicks with 27.4 ppg with shooting splits of .485/.409/.864. Brunson is undersized and not a great defensive player, but his efficient clutch shooting makes up for his deficiencies. He is also a good playmaker, ranking second on the team with 6.0 apg versus the 76ers, and he had just seven turnovers in four games.
Karl-Anthony Towns made the All-Star team six times--including each of the last three seasons--as a high scoring big man who also rebounds well, but during the 2026 playoffs he has become an elite passing big man. He led the Knicks with 7.5 apg versus the 76ers while also averaging 15.5 ppg on .618 field goal shooting and ranking second on the team with 8.0 rpg. He is averaging 17.4 ppg, a team-high 10.0 rpg, and a team-high 6.6 apg during the 2026 playoffs. Towns' playmaking may be the biggest surprise of the playoffs; he had never averaged more than 2.6 apg in the playoffs and his playoff single game career-high in assists had been five, but in the 2026 playoffs he has logged his first two postseason triple doubles while posting at least six assists in seven of the Knicks' 10 playoff games.
OG Anunoby averaged 21.0 ppg with a team-high .640 field goal percentage in the first two games versus the 76ers before missing games three and four with a right hamstring strain. He is expected to be available for the first game of the Eastern Conference Finals. Anunoby leads the Knicks in playoff steals (1.9 spg) while ranking second in scoring (21.4 ppg) and blocked shots (1.1 bpg), and third in rebounding (7.5 rpg).
Mikal Bridges (17.5 ppg on .638 field goal shooting) and Josh Hart (10.5 ppg, team-high 8.8 rpg, 4.0 apg, team-high 2.0 spg) also had strong performances versus the 76ers.
Other things to consider: It is fascinating to watch narratives evolve to fit agendas. Before the playoffs began, the Atlanta Hawks were characterized as a dangerous team that could be tough to beat. After the Hawks took a 2-1 lead in their first round series versus the Knicks, commentators could not decide whether to praise the Hawks or blast the Knicks. Then, the Knicks reeled off three straight wins, and the new narrative became that the Hawks were not a very challenging opponent.
The Philadelphia 76ers have been "next year's champion" for many years, and the hype machine ramped up after they came back from a 3-1 deficit to beat the Boston Celtics in the first round. Media members love to praise Joel Embiid and "The Process," insisting that if Embiid can stay healthy then the 76ers could beat anyone in a seven game series. Spoiler alert: Embiid never stays healthy, and his career playoff series record is 6-8, including 0-6 in the second round.
The Knicks annihilated the 76ers in the second round, capping off a 4-0 sweep with a record-setting 144-114 game four win; the Knicks tied the NBA playoff record with 11 three pointers in the first quarter, tied the NBA playoff record with 25 three pointers in a game, set a franchise record for most points in a playoff game, and set a franchise record with their seventh consecutive playoff victory. This is the first time the Knicks swept a best of seven playoff series since 1999.
The narrative then shifted from the 76ers being a formidable opponent to the Knicks reaching the Eastern Conference Finals without facing a strong opponent.
The reality--separated from any narratives and agendas--is that the Knicks' point differential of 19.4 points per game through their first 10 playoff games this year is the best point differential in a 10 game span in NBA playoff history. The Knicks are the fifth team to log multiple 140 games in the same postseason. Unless one makes the implausible argument that the Knicks faced the weakest opposition in the first two rounds in the history of the NBA playoffs, one should give the Knicks credit for starting the playoffs in dominant fashion.
Of course, the Knicks' job is not done: owner James Dolan made it clear prior to this season that he expects this team to win a championship, and that is why he fired successful coach Tom Thibodeau to bring in Mike Brown, who led the Cleveland Cavaliers to the 2007 NBA Finals, and who won the NBA Coach of the Year award in 2009 and 2023.
Commentators who don't understand basketball have often accused Mike Brown of being a subpar offensive coach and a coach who is not good at making adjustments. When Mike Brown led the Sacramento Kings' high-powered offense, his critics did not admit that they had been wrong about him; instead, they spoke about his alleged "evolution" as a coach. Don't be surprised if Brian Windhorst uncorks another article about Brown's supposed "evolution," because it is unlikely that Windhorst and his narrative-spewing cohorts will admit that they have ever been wrong.
Brown is an excellent coach who adapts his methods and game plans to the personnel on his roster; he did that in Cleveland, L.A., and Sacramento, and now he is doing it in New York. That is not to say that he has learned nothing during his long coaching career. Anyone who is good at his craft understands the importance of being a lifelong learner--but there is a difference between an accomplished person learning versus a person being deficient and then learning to be competent, and Brown's critics erred by portraying his as deficient. During Brown's first stint in Cleveland, the Cavaliers ranked 15th in scoring and 16th in field goal percentage in the 2005-06 season (his first year as an NBA head coach), and they improved to ninth and third respectively by the 2009-10 season (after which the Cavaliers fired him).
In my recap of game two of the 2021 NBA Finals, I discussed at length ESPN's fascination with mythical adjustments:
Many of ESPN's talking heads have been obsessed for years with "in game adjustments" but Jeff Van Gundy is one of the few ESPN commentators who downplays such talk, perhaps because he is the only current ESPN commentator who has actually coached in the NBA Finals. During the 2010 NBA Finals, Van Gundy explained that playoff series are not decided by in game adjustments because "You are who you are by this time of the year and you have to go with your best stuff and expect them to go with their best stuff." During last night's telecast, Van Gundy made similar points, and after the game he mentioned that NBA games are often decided by one or two key plays, or simply by shots made/missed, and that there are not adjustments that can change those things.
Bill Russell refuted the in game adjustment nonsense years ago, cautioning, "You have to make adjustments that your team can make" and explaining, "When I played, when we had to make adjustments we would adjust not to what we did wrong but we would try to get back to what we did right and do that. That is the only way you can take control of the game," to which I added, "The idea that a coach can come up with something completely new between games--let alone during a 15 minute halftime break--is absurd and that is why San Antonio Coach Gregg Popovich gives snarky answers when media members ask him stupid questions about what kind of adjustments he is going to make."
Unfortunately, many NBA commentators do not understand what they are watching, and are incapable of coming up with anything other than declaring that a team lost because that team's coach did not make the right adjustments. Stephen A. Smith repeats this tired refrain after almost every game, not realizing that his nickname is "Screamin' A", not "Strategy A" (though "Strategy F" would be an accurate assessment of what passes for analysis by him).
Perhaps when someone is paid millions of dollars per year to pose as an expert about something for which he does not have anything approaching expert level understanding there is pressure--self-imposed and/or from the bosses who sign those checks--to make bold statements and assertions.
It will be interesting to watch the narratives shift from game to game during this series.
In my 2025-26 Eastern Conference Preview, I ranked the Knicks as the Eastern Conference's best team, but in my 2025-26 Playoff Predictions I picked the Boston Celtics to win the Eastern Conference Finals; I was impressed by Boston's late season performance after Jayson Tatum's return, and I was concerned about the Knicks' inconsistency. The 76ers punished the Celtics for relying too much on three point shooting instead of attacking the immobile Joel Embiid, while the Knicks found their groove in the playoffs, as documented above.
New York will defeat Cleveland in six games.
Labels: Cleveland Cavaliers, Donovan Mitchell, Evan Mobley, Jalen Brunson, James Harden, Jarrett Allen, Karl-Anthony Towns, New York Knicks, OG Anunoby
posted by David Friedman @ 12:11 PM
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