2025-26 Eastern Conference Preview
Injuries and salary cap considerations will turn the Eastern Conference standings upside down. The Indiana Pacers made it to the Eastern Conference Finals in 2024 and 2025, and they pushed the dominant Oklahoma City Thunder to game seven of the 2025 NBA Finals before Tyrese Haliburton ruptured his right Achilles tendon. The Thunder outlasted the Pacers in game seven, and the Pacers will have to survive the 2025-26 season without Haliburton. The Pacers also lost starting center Myles Turner, who signed with the Milwaukee Bucks.
The Boston Celtics won the 2024 NBA championship, advanced to the 2022 NBA Finals before losing to the Golden State Warriors, and reached the Eastern Conference Finals six times in an eight year span (2017-18, 2020, 2022-24), but they are now facing a "gap year" after losing Jayson Tatum to a right Achilles tendon rupture in the second round of the 2025 NBA playoffs. With Tatum out of action, the Celtics decided to cut costs, trading Jrue Holiday to Portland for Anfernee Simons, and shipping Kristaps Porzingis to Atlanta in a three team deal that brought Georges Niang and a 2025 second round pick to Boston. The Celtics also did not re-sign backup center Luke Cornet, and did not retain the services of free agent Al Horford, who was their starting center for the better part of the past four seasons before signing with Golden State just prior to the start of the 2025-26 season.
With Indiana and Boston out of the championship contention picture, the path is wide open for the New York Knicks and Cleveland Cavaliers to battle for Eastern Conference supremacy, while the young Detroit Pistons and Orlando Magic look to build on the potential that they demonstrated last season, and the retooled Milwaukee Bucks seek to vault back to contender status after falling short since winning the 2021 NBA title.
Despite reaching the Eastern Conference Finals for the first time since 2000, the New York Knicks fired Coach Tom Thibodeau and replaced him with two-time NBA Coach of the Year (2009 with Cleveland, 2023 with Sacramento) Mike Brown. Brown's .599 regular season career winning percentage ranks 10th all-time among coaches with at least 400 regular season wins, and his .556 playoff career winning percentage ranks 15th all-time among coaches with at least 40 playoff wins. Thibodeau's career winning percentages are .579 and .466 respectively. Neither Brown nor Thibodeau has won a championship as a head coach, and both have won at least one championship as an assistant coach (four for Brown, one for Thibodeau). Last season, the Knicks ranked ninth in points allowed but just 25th in defensive field goal percentage; in 2023-24, the Knicks ranked second in points allowed and 15th in defensive field goal percentage. A major challenge for Brown will be to build a strong defense despite having two poor defenders--Jalen Brunson and Karl-Anthony Towns--playing major minutes as the focal points of an offense that ranked fifth in field goal percentage and ninth in scoring last season.
Cleveland finished with the best record in the Eastern Conference (64-18, the second best mark in franchise history) before losing in the second round for the second year in a row. The Cavaliers have established that they can win a lot of regular season games, but they have not proven that they can sustain a lengthy playoff run.
Listed below are the eight teams that I expect to qualify for the Eastern Conference playoffs, ranked based on their likelihood of advancing to the NBA Finals:
1) New York Knicks: The Knicks fired Coach Tom Thibodeau even though he led the team to the Eastern Conference Finals for the first time since 2000 while taking the Knicks to three straight playoff appearances for the first time since 2011-13. On the surface, it looks odd to get rid of a coach who has been so successful, but there are historical precedents for teams doing well after replacing winning coaches: Paul Westhead led the L.A. Lakers to the 1980 NBA title, but the Lakers replaced him with Pat Riley in 1981, and Riley coached the Lakers to four NBA titles (1982, 1985, 1987-88); Doug Collins led the Chicago Bulls to three straight playoff berths--culminating in reaching the Eastern Conference Finals in 1989--but the Bulls replaced him with Phil Jackson prior to the 1989-90 season, and Jackson coached the Bulls to six NBA titles (1991-93, 1996-98).
There are some obvious differences between the 1980s Lakers/1990s Bulls and the current New York Knicks, with the foremost difference being that the Lakers had two Pantheon members (Kareem Abdul-Jabbar and Magic Johnson) and the Bulls had one Pantheon member (Michael Jordan) plus a player who should be ranked no lower than 25th all-time (Scottie Pippen), while the Knicks do not have any players who are even close to Pantheon level.
The Knicks' best player, Jalen Brunson, is a 6-2 point guard with a shoot-first mentality; although he averaged a career-high 7.3 apg (eighth in the league) last season, his primary skill is scoring, and he has averaged at least 24.0 ppg in each of the last three seasons, peaking at 28.7 ppg in 2023-24 and scoring 26.0 ppg (eighth in the league) last season. The Knicks' second best player, Karl-Anthony Towns, has averaged at least 20 ppg in each of the last nine seasons, including 24.4 ppg (12th in the league) last season. Towns ranked second in the NBA with a career-high 12.8 rpg last season, but his poor defense and propensity to commit silly fouls are significant liabilities, particularly in the playoffs.
The Indiana Pacers eliminated the Knicks from the playoffs in each of the last two seasons, but the depleted Pacers do not figure to be a playoff threat--or even a playoff team--this season. The Boston Celtics have been an Eastern Conference Finals staple since 2017, but they will take a step (or several steps) back this season. I don't favor the Cleveland Cavaliers in a best of seven playoff series versus an elite team. Therefore, by process of elimination, the Knicks look like the team to beat in the Eastern Conference.
It was not fair to fire Thibodeau, who did a great job with the Knicks, but Brown is also an excellent coach, and the Knicks seem to be in perfect position to benefit from the general weakening of the Eastern Conference.
2) Cleveland Cavaliers: In his first season as Cleveland's coach, Kenny Atkinson won the Coach of the Year award after leading the Cavaliers to a 64-18 record--but some of the shine from that success was dulled by losing in the second round for the second consecutive season. The Cavaliers have the necessary pieces to make a championship run, including an All-NBA First Team guard (Donovan Mitchell), the 2025 Defensive Player of the Year (Evan Mobley), an All-Star point guard (Darius Garland), and a center who scores efficiently in the paint while also rebounding well (Jarrett Allen).
However, the playoff whole has not yet equaled the sum of the parts. The Knicks bullied the Cavaliers in the 2023 playoffs, the Celtics cruised past the Cavaliers 4-1 in the 2024 playoffs, and the Pacers shredded the Cavaliers' vaunted defense en route to a 4-1 win in the 2025 playoffs. The Cavaliers' playoff failures have been caused by lack of physicality and lack of game plan discipline, particularly on defense. Injuries have played a role, too, particularly last year, but most championship teams overcome some injury-related adversity.
The Cavaliers lost bench sparkplug Ty Jerome to the Memphis Grizzlies, and their only other significant roster move was trading Isaac Okoro to the Chicago Bulls for the oft-injured but very talented Lonzo Ball. Ball has never played more than 63 games in a season, and he has played in just 33 games since the 2021-22 season, but if he can stay healthy he can provide playmaking and tenacious defense.
The Eastern Conference should be wide open, but--as noted above--I don't trust the Cavaliers versus the Knicks in a best of seven series.
3) Orlando Magic: Injuries sidetracked the Magic's ascent last season, but with their key players healthy and some new players--most notably Desmond Bane and Tyus Jones--in the fold, the Magic expect to be one of the Eastern Conference's top teams.
The Magic have a star or potential star in the paint, on the wing, and at guard. Power forward Paolo Banchero set career highs in scoring (25.9 ppg) and rebounding (7.5 rpg) but injuries limited him to 46 games. He is on a trajectory to be an All-NBA player, and he has already shown--albeit in a small sample size of just 12 playoff games--the ability to elevate his game in the postseason, with career playoff averages of 28.0 ppg and 8.5 rpg. Small forward Franz Wagner also set career highs in scoring (24.2 ppg) and rebounding (5.7 rpg), but he played in just 60 games after playing at least 72 games in each of his first three seasons. Guard Jalen Suggs ranked third on the team in scoring (16.2 ppg) before a knee injury ended his season after 35 games.
The slow-paced Magic ranked 28th in points scored, 27th in field goal percentage, first in points allowed, and 17th in defensive field goal percentage. Improved health should help at both ends of the court, but three point shooting remains a major concern until proven otherwise; the Magic ranked 30th (last) in the NBA in both three point field goals made and three point field goal percentage. Bane should boost the Magic's rankings in both categories, as his career three point field goal percentage (.410) ranks 24th in ABA/NBA history, barely behind renowned "Splash Brother" Klay Thompson, and ahead of many noted long-range marksmen, including Dale Ellis, Mark Price, Ray Allen, and Glen Rice.
4) Milwaukee Bucks: Giannis Antetokounmpo is one of the NBA's elite players. Last season, the two-time regular season MVP (2019, 2020) and 2021 NBA Finals MVP finished third in regular season MVP voting after ranking second in the league in scoring (30.4 ppg), sixth in rebounding (11.9 rpg), and 13th in assists (6.5 apg, just a fraction short of the career high he set in 2023-24). He made the All-NBA First Team for the seventh straight year, and he finished in the top nine (eighth) in Defensive Player of the Year voting for the seventh straight year. The two-time Defensive Player of the Year has not made the All-Defensive Team since 2022, but he is still impactful at that end of the court. His only skill set weaknesses are free throw shooting (.617 last season, .693 for his career) and three point shooting (.222 last season, .284 for his career).
The Bucks added Myles Turner--fresh off of Indiana's run to the NBA Finals and back to back appearances in the Eastern Conference Finals--plus Cole Anthony and Gary Harris. To sign Turner, the Bucks stretched and waived Damian Lillard, who likely will not play this season after suffering a left Achilles tear. The Bucks also parted ways with Brook Lopez and Pat Connaughton. Lopez was a key member of Milwaukee's 2021 championship team, but he is 37 years old, so the 29 year old Turner is an upgrade in terms of both productivity and age. Anthony set career highs in scoring (16.3 ppg) and assists (5.7 apg) with Orlando in 2021-22, so he is capable of being the starting point guard; he averaged 9.4 ppg and 2.9 apg last season with Orlando, starting 22 of 67 games. Overall, the Bucks gained a lot more than they lost with these roster moves.
In his first full season as Milwaukee's coach, Doc Rivers posted a 48-34 record, the 14th time he led a team to at least 48 wins. His coaching resume includes one NBA title (Boston, 2008) and two Eastern Conference championships (Boston, 2008 and 2010), but also three blown 3-1 playoff series leads (Orlando Magic versus Detroit Pistons in 2003, L.A. Clippers versus Houston Rockets in 2015, and L.A. Clippers versus Denver Nuggets in 2020). To be fair, Rivers' teams were underdogs in two of those series (2003, 2015); also, Rivers coached Chris Paul in one of those series (2015), and Paul is one of the NBA's all-time playoff chokers, having "led" his teams to defeat a record five times after taking 2-0 series leads while also posting a 3-5 record in game sevens. More often than not, Rivers has maximized the potential of the teams that he coached.
Kyle Kuzma, who the Bucks acquired in a four team midseason trade that involved sending Khris Middleton to the Washington Wizards, averaged 14.5 ppg in 29 games with Milwaukee, ranking third on the team behind Antetlkounmpo and Lillard. Kuzma was a member of the L.A. Lakers' 2020 championship team, and the Bucks need for him to be a consistent scoring threat while also providing solid rebounding.
Bobby Portis missed 25 games last season due to an NBA suspension for using a banned substance. He is a physically imposing player who provides defense, rebounding, three point shooting, and timely scoring. Portis finished third in Sixth Man of the Year voting in 2023 and 2024.
Getting rid of Lillard--who would not have been able to play this season anyway--is addition by subtraction, particularly defensively. Turner provides athleticism and defense. I think that the Bucks will be better than most analysts are predicting.
5) Detroit Pistons: The Pistons hired J.B. Bickerstaff after their division rival Cavaliers fired him, and Bickerstaff finished second in Coach of the Year balloting as the Pistons improved from 14-68 to 44-38. Most of the team's sudden growth happened on defense, as the Pistons vaulted from 24th in defensive field goal percentage and 26th in points allowed to ninth and 14th respectively.
Cade Cunningham is an emerging star after averaging a career-high 26.1 ppg (seventh in the league) last season while also setting career highs in assists (9.1 apg, fourth in the league), field goal percentage (.469), and three point field goal percentage (.356). He earned his first All-Star selection and his first All-NBA Team selection (Third Team) while finishing seventh in MVP voting. Cunningham averaged 25.0 ppg, 8.7 apg, and 8.3 rpg in the Pistons' 4-2 first round loss to the New York Knicks.
Despite their successful season, the Pistons made several changes to their rotation, acquiring Caris LeVert, Duncan Robinson, and Javonte Green while losing Tim Hardaway Jr., Dennis Schroder, and Malik Beasley. As a result of those moves, the Pistons have less talent and depth.
Beasley played in all 82 games, finished third on the team in scoring (16.3 ppg), led the team in three point field goal percentage (.416), led the team in three point field goals made (319, second in the league), and finished second in Sixth Man of the Year voting. Schroder ranked second on the team in assists (5.3 apg), but he shot just .378 from the field. Hardaway averaged 11.0 ppg and ranked second on the team in three point field goals made (168).
LeVert averaged a career-high 20.2 ppg in 2020-21, but he has averaged 14.0 ppg or less in each of the past three seasons. Robinson is a career .397 three point shooter, but he provides little else beyond perimeter shooting and he is a defensive liability. Green has now been with five teams in seven seasons, and his career scoring average is 5.3 ppg.
Despite the personnel losses, there are two reasons that the Pistons should be better this season than they were last season: (1) their young players will continue to improve, and (2) the Eastern Conference is much weaker than it was last season.
6) Atlanta Hawks: I do not rank the Hawks as highly as some commentators, because I am skeptical that any team that relies heavily on Trae Young can consistently win a lot of regular season games or go far in the playoffs; the Hawks have reached the playoffs three times in Young's seven season career, and they have advanced past the first round once. The Hawks will be depending heavily on offseason acquisitions Kristaps Porzingis and Nickeil Alexander-Walker to fortify a leaky defense that ranked 27th in points allowed and 28th in defensive field goal percentage--but Porzingis has played in at least 65 games in a season just once since 2017, and even though Alexander-Walker is a good defensive player he is not good enough to transform a team's entire defensive identity.
That being said, the Hawks have not only upgraded their overall talent but they have improved their defense, so it is conceivable that in a weakened Eastern Conference this team could finish in the top four--but even if that happens, I would be surprised if the Hawks advance past the second round.
7) Philadelphia 76ers: The 76ers are a difficult team to rank; if their "Big Three" players each play at least 70 games then the 76ers should finish in the top four in the Eastern Conference's regular season standings--but Joel Embiid's career-high is 68 games (he played in 19 games last season and 39 games two seasons ago), Paul George has played in at least 70 games just once in the past six seasons, and Tyrese Maxey played in just 52 games last season and has played in at least 70 games just twice in his five season career. The 76ers have never advanced past the second round since they began "tanking to the top," and it is unlikely that they will advance past the second round this season, regardless of how they perform during the regular season--but in a decimated Eastern Conference they will probably scrape together enough regular season wins to reach the Play-In Tournament and then slip into the playoffs.
8) Miami Heat: The Heat have reached the playoffs for six straight seasons, and during that time they advanced to the NBA Finals twice (2020, 2023). A good case could be made that Erik Spoelstra is the NBA's best coach, and he is a major reason that the Heat consistently play well regardless of injuries, roster turnover, and other challenges.
The Heat suffered a 10 game losing streak soon after trading the disgruntled Jimmy Butler to the Golden State Warriors last season, but then they rallied to win six games in a row en route to winning eight of their last 12 games to qualify for the Play-In Tournament. They then won two Play-In Tournament games to earn a first round matchup with the number one seeded Cleveland Cavaliers, who promptly obliterated the overmatched Heat, 4-0. That series demonstrated that there are limits to how far a team can advance just with great coaching.
The Heat have a solid core group of players who have made the All-Star team at least once--Tyler Herro, Bam Adebayo, and Andrew Wiggins--but they lack a bona fide MVP-level superstar, and the reality in the NBA is that few teams win a championship without that kind of player. Herro had offseason foot surgery, and is expected to miss the first few weeks of the season, which means that the Heat may start slowly and have to rally to qualify for the Play-In Tournament, but they have enough talent and toughness to do that.
The Heat will play tenacious defense and they will try to cobble together a decent offense, but they are unlikely to advance past the first round.
The teams that finish seventh through 10th in the regular season standings will participate in the Play-In Tournament. The above eight teams are the teams that I predict will qualify for the playoffs, regardless of what the final regular season standings are.
During the Boston Celtics' 2024 championship run, Jaylen Brown won the Larry Bird Eastern Conference Finals MVP and the Bill Russell NBA Finals MVP. It will be interesting to watch Brown try to carry the Celtics sans Jayson Tatum, Jrue Holiday, Kristaps Porzingis, and Al Horford; my prediction is that Boston's defense is going to take a major step backwards after ranking second in points allowed and second in defensive field goal percentage, and I expect that Boston's three point-centric offense is going to struggle without Tatum drawing extra attention from opposing defenses. Anfernee Simons may set career-highs in scoring and three point field goals made, but he will give up at least as much on defense as he provides on offense.
Josh Giddey averaged 21.2 ppg, 10.7 rpg, and 9.3 apg in 19 games after the All-Star break, but for the Chicago Bulls to advance past the Play-In Tournament and earn a playoff berth--which the Bulls have done just once since 2018--they will not only need sustained high level performance from Giddey but a much stronger collective performance defensively.
Losing Tyrese Haliburton to injury and Myles Turner to free agency are crippling blows for the Indiana Pacers; if they can fight their way to the 10th seed and get Haliburton back in time for the Play-In Tournament then maybe they can grab the eighth seed, but the most likely scenario is that this team will win less than 35 games.
A healthy season from Brandon Ingram--which is far from certain, considering that he has not played more than 65 games in a season since his rookie campaign (2016-17)--could lift the Raptors into the Play-In Tournament, but the most likely outcome is another trip to the Draft Lottery.
The Brooklyn Nets added Michael Porter Jr., who was an injury prone scorer for the Denver Nuggets and who played an important role for Denver's 2023 championship team. The Nets appear to be trying to tank without overtly tanking. Porter Jr. will likely average over 20 ppg and provide some entertainment/excitement, but a team with him as the number one option is unlikely to make the playoffs, even in the relatively weak Eastern Conference.
Brandon Miller is a promising young player who has displayed All-Star potential, and the Charlotte Hornets improved defensively last season, but the roster still lacks enough overall talent and depth to contend for a playoff berth.
I will say the same thing about the Washington Wizards that I said in my 2024-25 Eastern Conference Preview: the Wizards "have not been relevant since Russell Westbrook carried the team that should be known as the "Wheeze-hards" to the 2021 playoffs."
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Note:
I correctly picked seven of the eight 2025 Eastern Conference playoff teams. Here are
my statistics for previous seasons:
2024: 7/8
2023: 7/8
2022: 6/8
2021: 6/8
2020: 7/8
2019: 6/8
2018: 6/8
2017: 5/8
2016: 5/8
2015: 5/8
2014: 6/8
2013: 7/8
2012: 8/8
2011: 5/8
2010: 6/8
2009: 6/8
2008: 5/8
2007: 7/8
2006: 6/8
2006-2025 Total: 124/160 (.775)
Labels: Atlanta Hawks, Cleveland Cavaliers, Detroit Pistons, Miami Heat, Milwaukee Bucks, New York Knicks, Orlando Magic, Philadelphia 76ers
posted by David Friedman @ 11:41 AM
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