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Wednesday, May 28, 2025

Pacers Outrun Knicks, Take 3-1 Lead in Eastern Conference Finals

The Indiana Pacers hit the New York Knicks with a 43 point first quarter, and may have delivered a knockout blow with a 130-121 game four win to take a 3-1 lead in the Eastern Conference Finals; teams that lead a best of seven NBA playoff series 3-1 win the series more than 95% of the time. The Knicks outrebounded the Pacers 44-33, but the Pacers forced 17 turnovers while only committing 11 turnovers, and the Pacers scored 20 points off of turnovers while giving up just nine points off of turnovers. The Pacers outscored the Knicks 50-44 in the paint, and 22-9 on fast breaks. The Pacers shot 45-88 (.511) from the field, including 13-32 (.406) from three point range, and they held the Knicks to 38-82 (.463) field goal shooting, including 12-28 (.429) from three point range. 

Tyrese Haliburton authored a virtuoso, MVP level performance, posting game-high totals in scoring (32 points), rebounding (12 rebounds), and assists (15) while not committing a turnover in 38 minutes of high usage playing time. The NBA officially began tracking individual turnovers during the 1977-78 season; since that time, no player had accumulated at least 30 points, at least 15 assists, and at least 10 assists without a turnover in a playoff game until Haliburton accomplished that feat last night; the only other players who posted 30-15-10 lines in playoff games are Oscar Robertson and Nikola Jokic. In my Eastern Conference Finals series preview, I compared Haliburton's scoring and assist numbers to those posted by a young Magic Johnson--and then I still picked New York to win the series; perhaps I should have trusted my instincts/analysis about how special Haliburton is. Young Magic was a better rebounder than Haliburton but not as good of a three point shooter. In each of his first four playoff campaigns, Magic averaged between 17.0 ppg and 18.2 ppg and between 7.0 apg and 13.5 apg; this is just Haliburton's second playoff campaign, but he is averaging 19.4 ppg and a league-high 9.8 apg in the 2025 playoffs after averaging 18.7 ppg and 8.2 apg in the 2024 playoffs. During Magic's rookie season, he teamed up with Kareem Abdul-Jabbar--who is on the short list of candidates for the title of greatest basketball player of all-time--to lead the L.A. Lakers to the NBA title. Haliburton does not have the good fortune of playing with a dominant player like Abdul-Jabbar, but Haliburton is getting the most out of his current roster.

Pascal Siakam is the Pacers' security blanket. He is not flashy and he does not get as many touches as his talent seems to warrant, but when he has the ball he goes to work. His 30 points on 11-21 field goal shooting nicely complemented Haliburton's triple double. Aaron Nesmith was listed as questionable before the game because of the sprained ankle he suffered in game three, but he scored 16 points, played tough defense, and posted a game-high +20 plus/minus number. Bennedict Mathurin poured in 20 points in just 12 minutes off of the bench. Myles Turner added 13 points, three rebounds, and three blocked shots before fouling out. Obi Toppin scored just five points, but he probably took special delight in draining a three pointer with 46.3 seconds remaining in the fourth quarter to put the Pacers up 126-116, which not only sealed the game but most likely sealed his former team's fate in the series.  

Jalen Brunson led the Knicks with 31 points and five assists, but his -16 plus/minus number reflects how badly the Knicks hemorrhaged points when he was in the game; that is not entirely his fault, but part of the problem is that he can be successfully targeted defensively. Karl-Anthony Towns had 24 points and a game-high tying 12 rebounds; he and Coach Tom Thibodeau seem to be doomed to always be the whipping boys for the Knicks' real and perceived failures, but Towns was the only New York starter with a positive plus/minus number (+3). Yes, Towns committed some dumb fouls and he jacked up too many three pointers, but the Knicks did not lose this game during his minutes. OG Anubody scored 22 points and had a -1 plus/minus number. 

This game provided another example of how often the NBA is a first quarter league: Haliburton had 15 points and six assists in the first quarter as the Pacers scored 43 points on 15-22 (.682) field goal shooting, and even though those numbers were not sustainable for the rest of the game they provided a look at the matchup advantages that the Pacers would continue to exploit: the Pacers are at their best when they play an uptempo game, and they are able to play an uptempo game when they minimize their turnovers and when they push the ball quickly up the court after a make or a miss. The Knicks scored 35 points in the first quarter but just could not keep up with the frenetic Pacers, and that continued to be the case throughout the game. The Knicks led 2-0 and 5-3 but trailed for most of the game, including the entire second half. The Pacers deserve full credit for the many things that they did well, but it must be said that the Knicks suffered self-inflicted wounds as a result of sloppy ballhandling, bad fouls, missed defensive rotations, and questionable shot selection. 

This game marked the first time in this series that the home team won a game. With a win in New York on Thursday, the Pacers can close out the series and advance to the NBA Finals for the first time since 2000.

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posted by David Friedman @ 7:14 PM

2 comments

2 Comments:

At Thursday, May 29, 2025 12:20:00 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Haliburton is a very good player, but let's not get ahead of ourselves about him. He's not even close to as good as a young Magic. Haliburton didn't even make the AS team this season, though Siakam did. Haliburton might be the Pacers best player but their success has a lot more to do than just him. His cast is very good and they have an elite coach, but won just 50 games, mainly because the Pacers best player isn't an elite player. Magic would be winning at least 60 games with this team. The Knicks are a good team, but hardly a real contender. The Pacers deserve credit to be the team that has taken the biggest advantage in a conference where the 2 contenders played poorly and flopped in the playoffs, and they are within 1 game of the Finals, but they're not there yet and will taken get swept in the Finals if they make it.

It's hard to come back when down 3-1, but if there's a silver lining for the Knicks, it's that game 1 was super lucky for Indiana to win and then Siakam was needed to play like an MVP in game 2, where he hasn't scored 39 all year and only has scored 6x in 92 games played this season.

 
At Thursday, May 29, 2025 1:37:00 PM, Blogger David Friedman said...

Anonymous:

I agree that Haliburton is not as good as young Magic. My point is that Haliburton is similar to Magic in terms of being a gifted playmaker who is not a prolific scorer but is a timely scorer who makes clutch baskets. Haliburton also seems to be a player who elevates his team, while some players put up gaudy individual stats without elevating their teams. I think that Haliburton has the intangible "it" factor that great players have. I agree with you that this will not translate into a title this year--OKC is much better than the Pacers (assuming that the Pacers close out the Knicks to reach the Finals)--but I could see Haliburton being the leader of a championship team. Siakam has number one option skills, but seems more comfortable just out of the spotlight, as he was with Toronto's 2019 championship team.

The Knicks are capable of winning three games against the Pacers, but something just seems off with them; they are changing their lineups/rotations, and they are killing themselves with their sloppy ballhandling, poor shot selection, and mental mistakes on defense. They seem to be pulling apart instead of coming together.

 

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