New York Versus Indiana Preview
Eastern Conference Finals
#3 New York (51-31) vs. #4 Indiana (50-32)
Season series: New York, 2-1
Indiana can win if…the Pacers' up-tempo offense breaks down New York's defense and wears down New York's players. The Pacers ranked seventh in the league in scoring (117.4 ppg) and third in field goal percentage (.488) during the regular season, and so far in the playoffs they rank second in scoring (117.7 ppg) and first in field goal percentage (.501). Their fast pace and excellent shooting stretches defenses and puts pressure on opposing players to keep up mentally and physically.
The Pacers started the season a sluggish 6-9, but ended it a sizzling 12-3. They destroyed the East-leading 64-18 Cleveland Cavaliers in five games in the second round, winning game five 114-105 and holding the Cavaliers to 114.2 ppg on .426 field goal shooting during the series. The Cavaliers led the NBA in regular season scoring (121.9 ppg) while ranking second in field goal percentage (.491), so the Pacers appear to be improving defensively at the most important time. The Pacers are not known as a bruising team, but they pushed around the Cavaliers' vaunted double big lineup featuring 2025 Defensive Player of the Year Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen.
Tyrese Haliburton led the NBA in assists in the 2023-24 season with a career-high 10.9 apg, he ranked third in the league in assists this season (9.2 apg), and he is currently leading the league in assists during the playoffs (9.3 apg). His scoring and assist numbers are like those posted by a young Magic Johnson, but Johnson was a big-time rebounder while the third way that Haliburton impacts the game is three point shooting, leading the team in three point field goals made in the regular season (218) and tying for second in that category (22) so far during the playoffs.
Pascal Siakam is not flashy, but he is effective and he has championship experience with the 2019 Toronto Raptors. He led the Pacers in scoring during the regular season (20.2 ppg), and he is leading the Pacers in scoring during the playoffs (18.8 ppg). He leads the Pacers in playoff field goal percentage (.547) after shooting .519 during the regular season, and he is second in rebounding (6.2 rpg, just behind Aaron Nesmith's 6.5 rpg).
Myles Turner ranks third on the team in playoff scoring (16.5 ppg) and rebounding (6.0 rpg) while leading the league in blocked shots (2.5 bpg).
Five Pacers are averaging at least 29 mpg during the playoffs, and four of them (Andrew Nembhard, Pascal Siakam, Aaron Nesmith, and Myles Turner) are shooting at least .505 from the field, while the fifth (Haliburton) is shooting .474.
New York will win because…the Knicks will slow the pace, keep the games close, and rely on the clutch time heroics of Jalen Brunson, who ranks fifth in the NBA in playoff scoring (28.8 ppg) and seems to make every crucial shot in the last five minutes of close games.
Brunson is built like an NFL safety, and his game is a mixture of physicality, finesse, shooting touch, slick passing, and overall savvy. He does not seem to move fast or jump high, but he has mastered perhaps the key skill for any great offensive player: change of pace. Brunson knows how to get defenders off balance to create openings and also to draw fouls. There is so much talk about Dallas' midseason trade of All-NBA player Luka Doncic for All-NBA player Anthony Davis, but little is said about Dallas lowballing Brunson and losing him for nothing in free agency in 2022. That may turn out to be the worst player personnel move in Mavericks history, which is saying a lot considering that the Mavericks have lost or given up on Steve Nash and Luka Doncic while also breaking up their 2011 NBA championship team, which led to not advancing past the first round of the playoffs from 2012-2021.
Both of the Knicks' major offseason moves have paid dividends. It can be debated if Mikal Bridges is worth five first round draft picks, but there is no doubt that he has been productive during the regular season (17.6 ppg) and the playoffs (14.8 ppg) while playing heavy minutes and not missing any games. After being acquired from Minnesota in exchange for Julius Randle and Donte DiVincenzo, Karl-Anthony Towns ranked second on the Knicks in scoring (24.4 ppg) during the regular season while finishing second in the league in rebounding (career-high 12.8 rpg), and he is second on the team in playoff scoring (19.6 ppg) while placing fifth in the league in playoff rebounding (11.3 rpg).
OG Anunoby is averaging 15.1 ppg during the playoffs as a solid third scoring option, while Josh Hart chips in with scoring (13.5 ppg), rebounding (8.3 rpg), and assists (4.6 apg). Hart is the Knick most likely to get a triple double and most likely to get a floor burn.
During the regular season, the fact-based narrative about the Knicks was that they could not beat the teams ahead of them in the standings. That narrative has been forgotten after the Knicks took a 2-0 lead versus the 2024 NBA champion Boston Celtics, and then finished off the Celtics with a 119-81 game five rout after the Celtics lost Jayson Tatum to a ruptured right Achilles near the end of game four.
Coach Tom Thibodeau is often criticized for shortening his rotation and playing his starters for too many minutes, but the two pillars of his coaching style--trust your best players, and try to win every game--are preferable to the load management, tanking, and other shenanigans that have infested the league.
Other things to consider: New York took a 3-2 lead versus Indiana in the second round last year after Jalen Brunson scored 44 points in a 121-91 game five win. Indiana won game six at home, and then demolished the injury-depleted Knicks 130-109 in game seven; by the end of game seven, five of New York's top eight rotation players were unavailable due to injury. It is fair to argue that a healthy New York team would have beaten Indiana last season, and that a healthy New York team should be expected to beat Indiana this season.
Towns provides the Knicks with size in the paint and elite rebounding, but he also stretches defenses with his three point shooting. He seems to drift at times and just float through games, but if he is focused he can have a big impact during this series. His former team returned to the Western Conference Finals without him, so if the Knicks take care of business there is a chance that Towns and the Knicks will face Minnesota in the NBA Finals.
New York will defeat Indiana in seven games.
Labels: Indiana Pacers, Jalen Brunson, Karl-Anthony Towns, New York Knicks, Pascal Siakam, Tyrese Haliburton
posted by David Friedman @ 11:30 PM
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