20 Second Timeout

Oklahoma City Thunder Outlast Houston Rockets 125-124 in Opening Night Double Overtime Thriller

Hearing John Tesh's "Roundball Rock" as the NBA returned to NBC for the first time since 2002 brought back a flood of nostalgic memories, foremost among them the Chicago Bulls' twin three-peats (1991-93, 1996-98) culminating in the legendary "Last Dance" 1998 championship season. There has been a lot of hype about the revival of the NBA on NBC and, at least on Opening Night, the game lived up to the hype as the 2025 NBA champion Oklahoma City Thunder defeated the Houston Rockets 125-124 in a double overtime battle featuring plenty of drama and plot twists. If this was a Western Conference Finals preview--and it is way too soon to say that it was--then we are in for a treat next May.

Before the game began, the Thunder received their championship rings and raised the first championship banner in Oklahoma City history. The Thunder's rings feature a unique ring within a ring design; championship rings have become so big and gaudy that they are not practical to wear, but each of the Thunder's championship rings contain a smaller ring inside that is personalized for each player and small enough to be worn comfortably.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, the reigning Finals MVP, regular season MVP, and scoring champion, overcame a slow start to lead the Thunder with 35 points while also grabbing five rebounds, and tying three teammates with a team-high five assists. Chet Holmgren added 28 points and seven rebounds. The Thunder were without the services of 2025 All-NBA Third Team selection Jaylen Williams, who is recovering from offseason surgery on his right (shooting) wrist, but they received an unexpected boost off of the bench as Ajay Mitchell poured in 16 points in just 15 minutes. Cason Wallace contributed 14 points, seven rebounds, and five assists. Isaiah Hartenstein only scored six points, but he had a team-high nine rebounds and five assists. Fan favorite Lu Dort was the other Thunder player with five assists, and he played 45 minutes, second most for the Thunder behind Gilgeous-Alexander's 47.

Alperun Sengun scored a game-high 39 points, snared 11 rebounds, and dished for a game-high seven assists. He often overpowered Alex Caruso in the post, and Caruso--a key defensive player for the Thunder--finished with a game-worst -15 plus/minus number. Kevin Durant had 23 points and nine rebounds in his Houston debut, and he was booed lustily by an Oklahoma City crowd that has not forgiven him for fleeing a championship contending team to join the Golden State Warriors in 2016. Amen Thompson had 18 points, five assists, and four turnovers before leaving the game with a leg injury in the first overtime. He had a team-worst -11 plus/minus number as the starting point guard in place of the injured Fred VanVleet. Thompson is bigger, faster, and more athletic than VanVleet but also not as savvy in terms of running a team and controlling pace. 

The Rockets trotted out the tallest starting lineup since the NBA first tracked starting lineups in the 1970-71 season: Amen Thompson (6-7), Kevin Durant (6-11), Jabari Smith, Jr. (6-11), Alperen Sengun (6-11), and Steven Adams (6-11). Adams, a former Thunder player who the fans cheered when the starting lineups were announced, had a game-high 13 rebounds as the Rockets bludgeoned the Thunder 51-39 on the glass. The modern NBA is supposedly all about playing small, pace and space, and jacking up three pointers, but the Rockets nearly beat last year's champions with a big team despite shooting just 11-39 (.282) from three point range. Losing the turnover battle 21-11 nullified Houston's rebounding advantage, and if the Rockets can clean that up then their defense and rebounding will make them very difficult to beat and very uncomfortable to play against. The Thunder uncharacteristically had five turnovers in the first quarter after leading the league in fewest turnovers per game (11.7) and most turnovers forced per game (17.0) last season, but in the final 46 minutes the Thunder only had six turnovers.

In four full quarters and two overtimes, neither team outscored the other by more than four points in a quarter or an overtime. The Rockets enjoyed a 57-51 halftime lead, using a balanced attack featuring three double figure scorers. Gilgeous-Alexander had just five first half points on 2-5 field goal shooting. NBC's Jamal Crawford made an interesting point near the end of the first half, stating that the Thunder are built for Gilgeous-Alexander to be the leading scorer and look out of sorts when he is not. I have often made a similar point about elite scorers in general, noting that they have a responsibility to score a lot; their high volume shooting is not selfish, but is necessary for their teams to be successful. 

A halftime interview is not usually worth mentioning in a game recap, but most halftime interviews don't feature Michael Jordan, who said that he wishes he could take a "magic pill" to play basketball again, which is reminiscent of remarks he made during his Naismith Memorial Basketball Hall of Fame speech in 2009: 

This is not fun for me. I don't like being up here for the Hall of Fame because at that time your basketball career is completely over. I was hoping this day would be 20 more years, or actually go in when I'm dead and gone. Because now, all along...you always [could] put shorts on and go out and play. Now, when you get into the Hall of Fame, what else is there to do? This is kind of a love-hate thing for me--great accomplishment, great respect that everybody's paying, but for me, I always want to be able to have you thinking that I can always go back and play the game of basketball, put my shorts on. As long as you have that thought, you never know what can happen...Am I? No. But I'd like for you to think that way. Hall of Fame, to me, is like, 'OK, it's over and done with, it's pretty much done, you can't ever put a uniform back on.' It's totally the end of your basketball career. But it's a great accomplishment. I don't walk away from it. But I never envisioned myself really wanting to be up here so quickly. I wanted it to be when I'm 70 years old, 80 years old. I'm 45 and I still think I can play. You guys don't know if I can or can't but at least I've got you thinking that way. 

Jordan told NBC's Mike Tirico that he agreed to be interviewed--NBC plans to show the interview in installments over the next several weeks in an obvious attempt to boost ratings--because he feels an obligation to give back to the game by providing his observations and wisdom about basketball and competition. Jordan made it very clear that he would much rather be playing than talking about playing, and he said that he misses the competition. More than 20 years after he retired, being a basketball player is still a core part of Jordan's identity. This should not surprise anyone who followed Jordan's career, or anyone who gets an adrenaline boost not just from competing but from winning; if you are that kind of person, it is difficult to find anything to replace that feeling. That is what is so fascinating about the direction that Kobe Bryant seemed to be taking as a retired player, because he appeared to find other ways to express himself beyond playing; it is a shame that Bryant's life (and the lives of all of the passengers in that doomed helicopter, including his daughter Gigi) was cut short before he could explore all of those other aspects of life. 

Next week's installment of the Jordan interview will focus on his thoughts about load management and about why it was so important to him to play all 82 regular season games. I don't expect to be surprised by Jordan's thoughts on this topic, but I hope that after Jordan explains why playing every game is important that today's players take his approach to heart.  

The Rockets built a 63-51 lead on Thompson's layup at the 10:13 mark of the third quarter, but by the end of that quarter the Thunder had trimmed the margin to four (79-75), setting up a competitive fourth quarter during which neither team led by more than six points. Durant split a pair of free throws with 9.5 seconds remaining in regulation to put the Rockets up 104-102, leaving the door open for the Thunder to tie or even win. Gilgeous-Alexander, the master of the midrange game that is despised by many "stat gurus" but essential for winning in the playoffs, drilled a pullup jumper to tie the score with 2.6 seconds left. The Rockets called timeout before inbounding the ball to Sengun, who missed a jumper as time expired.

The Thunder jumped out to a 110-104 lead in the first 1:24 of the first overtime, but the Rockets reeled them in and tied the score on Sengun's putback dunk with 8.8 seconds remaining. After Gilgeous-Alexander missed a jumper with 2.2 seconds left, Durant grabbed the rebound and clearly signaled for a timeout. The only problem was that Houston did not have any more timeouts. Had the officials recognized Durant's request with time left on the clock then the Rockets would have been assessed a technical foul and the Thunder would have had a chance to take the lead at the free throw line. However, time just ran out, after which Oklahoma City Thunder coach Mark Daigneault approached the officials and angrily asked why they did not call a technical foul. The NBC crew never got a definitive explanation regarding what happened; play by play announcer Mike Tirico merely noted that the officials had never acknowledged Durant's signal, without questioning how it is possible that an official standing right next to Durant could not have noticed Durant's signal (and, presumably, Durant also verbally requesting a timeout). 

The second overtime was as closely contested as the rest of the game, with neither team leading by more than three points. At the 1:15 mark, Durant drove to the hoop, drew Hartenstein's sixth foul, and hit a shot while he was falling down. Durant made the free throw to put Houston up, 122-120. Gilgeous-Alexander answered with a smooth stepback jumper, and then he split a pair of free throws after Houston turned over the ball. Durant missed a three pointer, but the Rockets retained possession and Durant passed to a cutting Sengun for a layup that put the Rockets up 124-123 with just 11 seconds remaining. Durant guarded Gilgeous-Alexander on the final possession, and played good defense before fouling him with just 2.3 seconds left. Gilgeous-Alexander hit both free throws to provide the final margin.

A Thunder win with Durant fouling out on the play that gave the Thunder the lead is undoubtedly a perfect ending for Oklahoma City fans. Both teams competed hard, and both teams made many nice plays at both ends of the court. My only quibble would be that 67 combined missed three pointers is not efficient basketball no matter what the "stat gurus" say, but teams regularly jacking up 30, 40, 50 or more three pointers appears to be a permanent feature of the sport now. We have all heard that "Three is more than two," but it is worth pointing out that "Two is more than zero," and that 67 possessions in this game ended with zero points on shots from 23 feet, nine inches and beyond. For the modern NBA, though, this was a very high level game, and it was enjoyable to watch.

Anyone who understands the NBA knows that it is foolish to read too much into one game, particularly the first game of a long regular season; after Kareem Abdul-Jabbar hit a game-winning skyhook in rookie Magic Johnson's first NBA game, Johnson celebrated and Abdul-Jabbar casually informed him that there were 81 more games to go (and Johnson told him that if he hits a shot like that 81 more times then he will celebrate 81 more times, but that is a different story). Nevertheless, even though it is way too soon to draw definitive conclusions, we can make a few observations about both teams. The Thunder were sluggish offensively at first, primarily due to Gilgeous-Alexander starting slowly and Williams not being in the lineup, but after they fell behind by double digits they woke up and found a way to win despite not playing their best and not having their second best player. After Williams returns, the Thunder will be much better at both ends of the court. The Rockets' size and physicality challenged the Thunder, and will challenge most teams in the league. Sengun looked as good as he has ever looked even though the Rockets lack a true point guard and are still figuring out how to fully integrate Durant into the offense (he had just nine points after halftime). It will be very interesting to assess both of these teams after a larger sample size of games.

Labels: Alperun Sengun, Amen Thompson, Chet Holmgren, Houston Rockets, Kevin Durant, NBA, NBC, Oklahoma City Thunder, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

posted by David Friedman @ 2:20 AM

5 comments

Evaluating The Athletic's The Basketball 100, Focusing on the Top 15

David Aldridge and John Hollinger plus The Athletic staff are listed as co-authors of The Basketball 100, a book that ranks in order the top 100 players in pro basketball history. David Aldridge is one of the few modern NBA journalists who I respect: he writes well, and his takes are reasonable, even if I don't always agree with him, although I would say that I agree with him most of the time. In his Introduction to The Basketball 100, he declares, "If you truly love the game, you appreciate its history, and the stars of the early era, from George Mikan and Bob Cousy to Bob Pettit and Dolph Schayes. They were not plumbers and firemen; they were the best athletes of their generation, men to be respected." That last comment is a direct--and deserved--shot fired at J.J. Redick, who demeaned Bob Cousy because, in Redick's shameful words, Cousy played against "plumbers and firemen."

Although Aldridge's statement provides hope that the book will speak truth to power, there are reasons to be skeptical about the book as well. Aldridge talked about the book on a podcast with Bomani Jones, and Aldridge mentioned that while doing research he was surprised to learn that Dave Bing suffered an eye injury as a child that left him with blurred vision. I wrote about Bing's childhood eye injury in my 2007 Basketball Times profile of Bing, and I was not breaking news when I mentioned that fact, so it is surprising that a veteran NBA journalist did not know this--which is not to say that Aldridge is required to read my articles or to know every fact about every player, but rather that it is becoming increasingly evident that even among the best journalists there are very few (if any) who have truly immersed themselves in basketball history the way that I have done for more than 40 years. I often disagree with what others say about basketball players past and present simply because I am working with a much deeper set of facts and context than they are. That may sound arrogant, but anyone who takes the time to read even a fraction of the several million words that I have written about basketball can independently evaluate my knowledge of basketball history.

In his chapter about Bing, Aldridge asserts (p. 16) that Bing's single season scoring record at Syracuse stood for 23 years until Sherman Douglas broke it--but anyone who is familiar with basketball history does not have to consult Syracuse's record book to know that (1) Bing still holds that record, and (2) Douglas does not even rank in Syracuse's single season scoring top 10, never mind ranking first. It is disappointing to find such a glaring mistake in a book that touts itself as a definitive source for player rankings; if the writers, editors, and proofreaders employed by The Athletic do not know basic facts then why should readers place value on the book's player rankings?

Hollinger is one of many "stat gurus" who talked his way into various media jobs and even an NBA front office position by asserting this his proprietary statistic--Hollinger calls his PER, and other "stat gurus" have other proprietary statistics that they tout--is the best way to evaluate and rank basketball players and basketball teams. The concept of intelligently using statistics to objectively evaluate and rank basketball players sounds great, but in practice the use of "advanced basketball statistics" far too often results in ludicrous conclusions such as James Harden is a better scorer than Michael Jordan, and tanking is the best way to build an NBA team (never mind the fact that the data shows that tanking does not work). Utilize "advanced basketball statistics" in theory and you will build the best basketball team ever; utilize "advanced basketball statistics" in the real world and you will build the Philadelphia 76ers, who have not advanced past the second round of the playoffs despite hiring two of the most famous "stat gurus"--first Sam Hinkie and then more recently Daryl Morey--to run their basketball operations. The most incredible thing about Morey is that he has managed to stay employed as the main person running basketball operations for first the Houston Rockets and now the Philadelphia 76ers despite his pedestrian resume.

Not content with making money from hawking PER, Hollinger created a new "advanced basketball statistic" for The Basketball 100: GOAT points. I will spare you the details of how GOAT points work, because it can be summarized the same way that most such systems can be summarized: the system's creator arbitrarily selected the numbers that matter most to him, arbitrarily assigned weights to those numbers, and then declared that this is the best way to objectively rank basketball players. Everyone should want to find just one person who loves him or her as much as "stat gurus" love James Harden. The Basketball 100 ranked Harden 34th all-time--which is absurdly high--but Hollinger's GOAT points place Harden 13th, just ahead of Oscar Robertson, six spots ahead of Hakeem Olajuwon, seven spots ahead of Jerry West, eight spots ahead of Nikola Jokic, nine spots ahead of Giannis Antetokounmpo, 14 spots ahead of Stephen Curry, and 15 spots ahead of Julius Erving. Harden has had more "concert tours" than those all-time greats and he perfected the "Harden"--signifying a game during which a player has more turnovers than field goals made--but those are the only categories in which Harden should be ranked ahead of Robertson, Olajuwon, West, Jokic, Antetokoumpo, Curry, Erving, or anyone else who legitimately belongs on such a list.

Aldridge, Hollinger, and various staff writers divided the task of writing the book's chapters, with each chapter focusing on one player. In the first chapter by Hollinger--a discussion of Dave DeBusschere, who is ranked 97th on the list--he refers to the 1969 New York Knicks appearing in the Eastern Conference Finals (p. 20), but the NBA did not begin conference play until 1970 (the 1969 Knicks played in the Eastern Division Finals). Perhaps that may seem like a minor typographical error, but a major project featuring numerous editors, writers, and proofreaders should have a very small number of errors, particularly regarding facts that are easy to verify. 

Those are not the book's only easy to verify errors. Kelsey Russo writes that Jerry Lucas "was the first player in American basketball history to win a title at every level--high school, college, an Olympic gold medal, and the NBA" (p.144). Bill Russell accomplished that feat prior to Lucas. Zach Harper's disjointed and rambling account of Robert Parish's career asserts that Parish is one of six players who played in at least 1300 games and "averaged at least 16 points in each of their 17 seasons" (p. 174). Parish averaged less than 16 ppg in 11 of his 21 seasons. Harper also credits Parish with a career field goal percentage of .542 (.537 is the correct number), groups Parish with players who averaged at least 10 rpg during their careers (Parish averaged 9.1 rpg), and states that Kareem Abdul-Jabbar's career field goal percentage is .562 (.559 is the correct number). It is not clear why giggling while Amin Elhassan bashes Bob Cousy and Russell Westbrook qualifies Harper to analyze Parish's accomplishments specifically or basketball history in general.

I am not going to do a page by page analysis/refutation of this 737 page book, so I will limit my primary focus to comparing the book's top 15 players with the 14 players in my basketball Pantheon while along the way discussing the merits of adding a 15th player to my 2008 list.

Here is my Pantheon, with players listed in chronological order:

• Bill Russell
• Elgin Baylor
• Wilt Chamberlain
• Oscar Robertson
• Jerry West
• Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
• Julius Erving
• Larry Bird
• Magic Johnson
• Michael Jordan
• Shaquille O'Neal
• Kobe Bryant
• Tim Duncan
• LeBron James

Here are the top 15 players in The Basketball 100, listed according to the book's rankings:

1. Michael Jordan
2. LeBron James
3. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
4. Bill Russell
5. Magic Johnson
6. Wilt Chamberlain
7. Shaquille O'Neal
8. Tim Duncan
9. Larry Bird
10. Kobe Bryant
11. Hakeem Olajuwon
12. Stephen Curry
13. Oscar Robertson
14. Kevin Durant
15. Julius Erving

The lists have 12 players in common. The differences are that The Basketball 100 omitted Elgin Baylor and Jerry West while including Hakeem Olajuwon, Stephen Curry, and Kevin Durant. Curry and Durant had not yet entered the NBA when I selected my Pantheon, and Olajuwon just missed the cut for my Pantheon, so I will examine Olajuwon's career first before discussing if Curry and Durant should replace Baylor and West or if the Pantheon should be expanded much like the NBA's Greatest Players List expanded from 50 players in 1996 to 76 players in 2021. 

In my first Pantheon article, I explained the criteria for inclusion in the Pantheon: "The players in basketball's pantheon display both durability and a high peak value, which I would define in the following fashion: durability means sustaining a long career (at least 10 years) at or near the top of the game and peak value refers to the top level that the player reached, even if he stayed there only briefly in the midst of a longer career during which he performed at a lower but still exceptional level."

The unfortunate aspect of explaining why a particular player is not in the Pantheon is that such a discussion can seem disrespectful toward the player in question. It should be noted that I have already examined in detail why Olajuwon deserved to be a first ballot Hall of Famer, so suggesting that he ranks in the top 25 all-time instead of the top 14 or 15 should not be seen as a negative.

Olajuwon won two NBA Finals MVPs, two Defensive Player of the Year awards (1993-94), and one regular season MVP (1994). He earned six All-NBA First Team selections (1987-89, 1993-94, 1997), made the All-Star team 12 times, led the league in rebounding twice (1989-90), and led the league in blocked shots three times (1990-91, 1993). Olajuwon's Houston Rockets reached the Western Conference Finals four times (1986, 1994-95, 1997) and advanced to the NBA Finals three times (1986, 1994-95), winning back to back NBA titles in 1994-95. Olajuwon had at least 100 steals and 100 blocked shots in 12 seasons, tying a record set by Julius Erving; in 11 of those seasons, Olajuwon had at least 200 blocked shots, easily making him the career leader in "100/200" seasons. 

Much of Olajuwon's reputation is based on leading the Rockets to back to back championships, and dominating 1995 regular season MVP David Robinson in the 1995 Western Conference Finals. Those are superb accomplishments, but it is worth noting that overall in head to head competition Olajuwon and Robinson posted comparable statistics while Robinson's teams won 32 out of 48 games.

I am not a big fan of playing the "What if?" game, but when evaluating Olajuwon's career it is fair to ask if he would have won a championship had Michael Jordan not retired from the NBA for nearly two full seasons during Jordan's prime. Jordan's decision should not be held against Olajuwon--who can only outplay the players and teams in front of him--but it is pertinent to wonder about Olajuwon's two titles in light of the fact that in his other 18 seasons he managed just two appearances in the Western Conference Finals and only one appearance in the NBA Finals. With the exception of Oscar Robertson, Pantheon members routinely made deep playoff runs--and Robertson's Cincinnati Royals often had to contend with either Bill Russell or Wilt Chamberlain in a small league with highly concentrated elite-level talent. 

Selections to the All-League (ABA or NBA) First Team and top five MVP finishes are two quick ways to assess the combination of high peak value with durability; this does not mean that I selected my Pantheon based on those awards, but it means that the players who I selected often received those honors in recognition of their greatness. With the exception of Wilt Chamberlain and Bill Russell, every member of my basketball Pantheon earned at least eight All-NBA/All-ABA First Team selections. Chamberlain and Russell fought each other for that honor throughout the 1960s, with Chamberlain making the All-NBA First Team seven times and Russell earning three selections (including one before Chamberlain entered the NBA)--but Chamberlain finished in the top five in MVP voting 10 times (winning the award four times) and Russell finished in the top five in MVP voting 11 times (winning the award five times). Elgin Baylor finished in the top five in MVP voting seven times, Jerry West and Shaquille O'Neal each did so eight times, and every other Pantheon member did so at least nine times. Without exception, each Pantheon member was a legitimate MVP candidate for the better part of a decade, and some Pantheon members were legitimate MVP candidates for longer than a decade.

Olajuwon made the All-NBA First Team six times, and he finished in the top five in MVP voting six times. Olajuwon was a great player, but he was not quite a Pantheon-level player; the Pantheon players had longer runs of MVP/All-NBA First Team level dominance, and in general their teams had more playoff success (with the exception of Baylor, Robertson, and West, but those three players were the best at their positions for a solid decade). Instead of ranking Olajuwon 11th all-time, I would place him somewhere in the top 25.

Recency bias works in favor of Stephen Curry and Kevin Durant; younger fans may barely remember Kobe Bryant, let alone Michael Jordan and the great players who preceded Jordan. It has become increasingly popular to assert that Curry is one of the 10 greatest players ever, and Durant is often mentioned as one of the 10-15 greatest players ever--but, for the reasons listed below, I would not rank Curry or Durant ahead of any of the players in my Pantheon, nor am I inclined to expand my Pantheon to include either of them. As is the case with Olajuwon, ranking Curry and Durant in the top 25 all-time should not be considered disrespectful; using the same standards that I have consistently used, Curry and Durant just don't quite make the Pantheon cut.

Labels: Elgin Baylor, Hakeem Olajuwon, Jerry West, Julius Erving, Kevin Durant, LeBron James, Pantheon series, Stephen Curry

posted by David Friedman @ 1:41 AM

10 comments

Rockets Acquire Kevin Durant From Suns in Exchange for Dillon Brooks, Jalen Green, and Six Draft Picks

The Houston Rockets acquired Kevin Durant from the Phoenix Suns in exchange for Jalen Green, Dillon Brooks, the 10th overall pick in the 2025 NBA Draft, and five second round draft picks, but the transaction will not become official until July 6 when the NBA's new year begins*. Last season, the Rockets earned the second seed in the Western Conference with a 52-30 record before losing 4-3 in the first round to the Golden State Warriors; the Rockets were strong defensively, but they ranked just 21st in the league in field goal percentage (.455), and they shot .446 from the field in their playoff loss to the Warriors. The Rockets expect Durant's elite scoring and solid playmaking to provide a major boost to their anemic offense.

There is no disputing Durant's talent and productivity. The 2014 regular season MVP and two-time NBA champion/two-time NBA Finals MVP (2017, 2018) is a four-time regular season scoring champion (2010-12, 14) and five-time playoff scoring champion (2011, 2013-14, 2016, 2019) who ranks eighth in ABA-NBA regular season career points (30,571) and seventh in ABA-NBA playoff career points (4985). Durant owns the sixth highest ABA-NBA career regular season scoring average (27.2 ppg) and the fourth highest ABA-NBA career playoff scoring average (29.3 ppg). Durant, who turns 37 in September, averaged 26.6 points, 6.0 rebounds and 4.2 assists in 62 games last season while becoming the ninth member of pro basketball's 30,000 point club. The future Hall of Famer has averaged at least 25 ppg while shooting at least .500 from the field and at least .400 from three point range for three straight seasons, the longest such streak in ABA-NBA history.

Despite Durant's success, he has rarely seemed happy--let alone content--during his long and distinguished career. He fled Oklahoma City for Golden State in 2016 after leading the Thunder to game seven of the 2016 Western Conference Finals versus the Warriors, and then he orchestrated a move to Brooklyn in 2020 after winning two championships with the Warriors.  

After Durant forced his way from Golden State to Brooklyn, I discussed his perpetual dissatisfaction:

There is a clear pattern here. Durant never feels happy or satisfied, no matter how much those around him cater to his needs and his expressed wants. The Thunder built their team around Durant, but he left; the Warriors embraced Durant from day one, built their team around him, but he left despite having the most successful all-around seasons of his career. Durant's comment that Golden State could not "alter anything in my basketball life" is odd, unless he values his individual honors and achievements over team success: he did not obtain ultimate team success until he joined a team that had already won a title just two years before he arrived...

Durant may win multiple titles in Brooklyn, or he may not win any titles. He may reestablish himself as an elite player after missing a full season due to a significant injury, or he may never return to his old form. Based on past experience, though, one thing seems certain: he will not be happy--and that is sad. 

Durant played just 129 games in three seasons with the Nets before forcing his way to Phoenix, where he played just 145 games in three seasons. Durant enjoyed his greatest team success in Oklahoma City and Golden State, and he has had very little team success since leaving the Warriors. Between 2011 and 2019, Durant played in the Western Conference Finals six times, played in the NBA Finals four times, and won two titles; his Warriors reached the 2019 Western Conference Finals but he did not play due to injury, returning for one game in the 2019 NBA Finals before rupturing his right Achilles, causing him to miss the rest of the 2019 NBA Finals plus all of the 2019-20 regular season. Since leaving the Warriors, Durant has not reached the Conference Finals, he has advanced past the first round just twice, and he missed the playoffs last season. His post-Golden State resume includes a 2-4 playoff series record, and a 10-18 record in playoff games, including being on the wrong end of two first round sweeps.

It is understandable why the Rockets believe that acquiring Durant will improve their chances to win a title; they are already a big, physical, defensive-minded team, so adding a two-time champion who is an elite scorer seems to make their roster complete--but Durant has only made deep playoff runs when he was 30 or younger and playing alongside a dynamic, MVP-caliber guard (first Russell Westbrook, then Stephen Curry). Durant is seven years removed from his last deep playoff run, and the Rockets do not have--and do not seem likely to acquire--a dynamic, MVP-caliber guard.

Barring significant injuries, the Rockets are likely to win more than 50 games, and they should not lose again in the first round--but, beyond that, their future is less clear. Drama and discontent follow Durant, so it is premature to assume that the Rockets are a lock to reach the 2026 Western Conference Finals. The best case scenario is that Durant's efficient shooting opens up the floor for Alperen Sengun, Amen Thompson, and Fred VanVleet and that Durant is willing to buy in to Houston's gritty defensive style--but the worst case scenario is that within two years Durant is unhappy yet again and forcing his way out of town.

* July 7, 2025 update: The Durant trade has been consolidated into a record-setting seven team trade, with these terms, per NBA.com:

The Rockets receive:

Kevin Durant

Clint Capela

The Suns receive:

Jalen Green

Dillon Brooks

Khaman Maluach (No. 10 overall)

Rasheer Fleming (No. 31 overall)

Koby Brea (No. 41 overall)

Daequan Plowden

2026 second-round pick

2032 second-round pick

The Nets receive:

2026 second-round pick

2030 second-round pick

The Warriors receive:

Alex Toohey (No.  52 overall)

Jahmai Mashack (No. 59 overall)

The Hawks receive:

David Roddy

2031 second-round pick

Cash 

The Lakers receive:

Adou Thiero (No. 36 overall)

Cash 

Timberwolves receive:

Rocco Zikarsky (No. 45 overall)

2026 second-round pick

2032 second-round pick

Cash

Labels: Brooklyn Nets, Dillon Brooks, Houston Rockets, Jalen Green, Kevin Durant, Oklahoma City Thunder, Phoenix Suns

posted by David Friedman @ 3:00 PM

14 comments

Knicks Fire Their Most Successful Coach of the Past 25 Years

"You're timing stinks. We've just made a billion eight for the second year in a row. That's three and a half billion in the past two years. But mark my words, Henry. You may never see a billion eight again. And do you know why? Because you don't know how the f--- we made it in the first place." Lee Iacocca to Henry Ford after being fired by Ford

A family run business can hire and fire on a whim. That is how Ford Motor Company operated under Henry Ford II, which is how Lee Iacocca ended up at Chrysler, where he revitalized a company that had seemed to be on the brink of imminent collapse; meanwhile, Ford Motor Company's market share gradually declined after the Iacocca firing. Iacocca had a lot to do with Ford Motor Company's success in the 1960s and 1970s, but job performance had nothing to do with Henry Ford II's decision to fire Iacocca. 

What does this trip down automotive history memory lane have to do with the NBA? Tom Thibodeau just coached the New York Knicks to their most successful season in the past 25 years--the culmination of three straight years of improved regular season records--but that was not enough to save his job when James Dolan decided to fire him. Much like Henry Ford II ran Ford Motor Company as a family business (never mind the existence of a supposedly independent board of directors), Dolan runs the Knicks as a personal fiefdom where he can declare "Off with their heads!" on a whim. 

The Knicks steadily improved during Thibodeau's tenure, and before this season began no reasonable person would have said that reaching the 2025 Eastern Conference Finals would constitute failure, let alone be a fireable offense. The Knicks went 21-45 in the COVID-19 abbreviated 2019-20 season, and then went 41-31 in Thibodeau's first season at the helm. After slipping to 37-45 in 2021-22, the Knicks went 47-35, 50-32, and 51-31 in the next three seasons, advancing to the second round in back to back years before reaching the Eastern Conference Finals this season.

Prior to hiring Thibodeau in 2020, the Knicks had missed the playoffs for seven straight seasons under six different coaches. The Knicks have had 13 head coaches in the 24 years since the departure of Jeff Van Gundy in 2001.

Do you see the pattern? The one constant is James Dolan, who has owned the team through all of this turbulence; the general managers change, the coaches change, the players change, but Dolan is always there, presiding over the chaos. 

Firing excellent coaches is a trademark move of a dysfunctional franchise. Sensible reasons to fire a coach include underperformance relative to reasonable expectations, declining performance in the absence of extenuating circumstances, or the availability of a superior coach. Those reasons are not applicable to Thibodeau and the Knicks. 

Bashing excellent coaches is a trademark move of media members who do not understand the sport that they cover. The correct way to critique a coach is to focus on a specific coaching decision, provide evidence demonstrating why that coaching decision was suboptimal, and then suggest an alternative coaching decision that would have been better, supporting that alternative with evidence. Media members do not do this for a simple reason: they are not capable of doing this. The barriers to entry for some fields are quite high: to become an attorney, you must first get a high LSAT score, then you must graduate from law school, and then you must pass the bar exam; to become a chess master, you must achieve a rating in timed, competitive play that exceeds the ratings of 99% of competitive chess players. To become a media member, all you have to do is know someone who knows someone who likes you, and that is why media members who could not coach their way out of a paper bag with a machete are paid to intone solemnly (or yell bombastically) about how they would coach a team much better than a career professional coach would.

The prevailing media-driven narrative that Thibodeau did not use his bench enough is as lazy as it is stupid, and the people who propagate that nonsense fail to explain (1) who specifically Thibodeau should have played more minutes, (2) who specifically Thibodeau should have played fewer minutes, and (3) what evidence exists to demonstrate that making those moves would have produced a better outcome than losing in the Eastern Conference Finals.

When I critique a coach, I provide specific evidence-based reasons for that critique. For example, when Kevin Durant entered the NBA and Seattle Coach P.J. Carlesimo declared that he would move Durant from forward to guard, I expressed skepticism: 

Durant has not played one minute of regular season action in the NBA, yet even though he has been advertised as a great inside player his coach already wants him to switch positions. Carlesimo clearly wants to spare Durant from being pounded in the paint but the move to the backcourt will lead to other problems. To the best of my knowledge, Durant has never played guard; now he will have to learn how to do so against the best guards in the world. Also, from what I saw in the summer league, Durant has a very high dribble and is not a great ballhandler, so he will be a turnover waiting to happen if he is relied upon to do a lot of dribbling.

Durant clearly needs to put on some weight but that will be true regardless of which position he plays. I think that he and Seattle would be better served if he takes his lumps at his natural small forward position where he will at least be in the comfort zone of playing in areas of the court that are familiar to him.

The Seattle franchise subsequently moved to Oklahoma City and replaced Carlesimo with Scott Brooks, who immediately shifted Durant back to forward, a decision that I praised: "Moving Durant to small forward is a big step in the right direction that I predict will pay noticeable dividends, possibly as soon as the end of this season." The rest is history, as Durant assembled a Hall of Fame career as a forward; he averaged 20.3 ppg on .430 field goal shooting in his one year as a shooting guard, and in the next 16 seasons he never averaged less than 25.1 ppg and he never shot worse than .462 from the field.

A few years later, Carlesimo was coaching the Brooklyn Nets and Thibodeau was coaching the Chicago Bulls. The teams met in the first round of the 2013 playoffs, and I predicted that Chicago would win: "This series features a huge coaching mismatch. TNT's Kenny Smith says that if a team loses by more than five points then blame the players but if it loses by less than five points blame the coach; the games in this series figure to be low scoring and close and I trust Chicago's Tom Thibodeau much more than I trust Brooklyn's P. J. Carlesimo; this is not just about in-game adjustments but also about elements of preparation that give one team an edge over another." Sure enough, Chicago--which had won 45 games during the regular season while Brooklyn had won 49 games--won that series, 4-3. After the series, I distinguished coach evaluating from coach bashing:

Coach bashing is a favorite media pastime but most media members do not have a clue how to determine if a team is well coached or poorly coached. I respect all NBA coaches tremendously and I fully realize that even a bad NBA head coach knows more about basketball than the vast majority of coaches at any other level of the sport; [George] Karl is a very good NBA coach but he seems to be better suited for rebuilding teams/coaching underdogs than he is at extracting the maximum out of 50-plus win teams. Carlesimo was an excellent collegiate coach and he served as an assistant on Gregg Popovich's San Antonio staff so Carlesimo obviously has a very good basketball mind--but as an NBA head coach he has not measured up well in comparison with the best of the best, a category in which Thibodeau clearly belongs.

When I critique coaches like Carlesimo and Karl I am not trying to suggest that I know more about basketball than they do or that I would be a better NBA head coach; in other words, I am not acting like Bill Simmons. I am just doing my job as an NBA analyst by pointing out that, as much as Karl and Carlesimo know about basketball, there are other coaches who are demonstrably performing at a higher level.

Media members do not like to admit being wrong and it is interesting to see the lengths some of them will go to in order to avoid such admissions. Simmons used to regularly bash Doc Rivers' coaching acumen but now Rivers is widely recognized as a great coach so Simmons had to stop degrading Rivers--but did Simmons admit that he was wrong? Of course not! Simmons' story is that Rivers has evolved into being a great coach. Rivers won the 2000 Coach of the Year award in his first season as an NBA head coach after leading the "heart and hustle" Orlando Magic to a 41-41 record with Darrell Armstrong, John Amaechi and Chucky Atkins as the top three players in the rotation. Has Rivers become a better coach in the intervening 13 years? I am sure that he has; I hope that anyone who does something for more than a decade becomes better at it--but the idea that Rivers was a terrible coach who then became a great coach is absurd. Simmons was dead wrong about Rivers and he should just admit it. 

After retiring from the NBA, Brian Scalabrine has played several one on one games versus regular people who assume that because he was a bench player in the league and is now a retired player they have a chance to beat him--but Scalabrine routinely dominates these players, and he has correctly stated that he is closer to LeBron James' level than any of those players are to his level. Similarly, the worst coach in the NBA is closer to Phil Jackson's level of basketball understanding and acumen than any media member is to the worst coach's basketball understanding and acumen. In other words, media members should approach their craft with humility and with the goal of trying to learn more about basketball strategy--but that does not generate hype or TV ratings, so basketball fans will continue to be subjected to empty minds with large mouths loudly proclaiming "hot takes" devoid of cold logic.

Labels: James Dolan, Jeff Van Gundy, Kevin Durant, New York Knicks, Oklahoma City Thunder, P.J. Carlesimo, Scott Brooks, Seattle Supersonics, Tom Thibodeau

posted by David Friedman @ 10:32 PM

2 comments

Kevin Durant is the Ninth Member of Pro Basketball's 30,000 Point Club

The Memphis Grizzlies built a 19 point lead and held on to defeat the Phoenix Suns 119-112, but the headline story from that game is that the Suns' Kevin Durant joined the elite 30,000 point club by making a free throw with 1:11 remaining in the third quarter. Durant finished with a game-high 34 points on 12-18 field goal shooting. Ja Morant scored a team-high 26 points as the Grizzlies improved to 36-17 while dropping the Suns to 26-27. The Grizzlies have the second best record in the Western Conference, while the Suns are fighting just to earn a berth in the Play-In Tournament; the Suns are yet another example of how the "Big Three" model of instant team building fails more often than it succeeds.

Durant is the 30,000 point club's ninth member, and the first new member since LeBron James became the eighth (and youngest) member in 2018, one year after Dirk Nowitzki joined. Before we reflect on Durant's excellent career, it must be emphasized that it is shameful that the NBA and its media partners call Durant the 30,000 point club's eighth member, ignoring the fact that Julius Erving scored 30,026 points. ABA numbers should be counted offiically by the NBA, just like the NFL officially counts AFL numbers. Erving was just the third player to score at least 30,000 points, and he was the first "midsize" (6-7 or under) player to accomplish the feat; nearly 40 years after Erving retired, the only other "midsize" players who have scored at least 30,000 points are Michael Jordan and Kobe Bryant. Ignoring Erving's accomplishments and statistics skews the ubiquitous conversation about the greatest players of all-time; Erving is often left out of that discussion, but he deserves to be prominently mentioned. Erving starred in the ABA for five years before enjoying a spectacular 11 year run with the Philadelphia 76ers. He made the All-Star team in each of his 16 professional seasons, he never played for a losing or non-playoff team, and he is the only player to win an MVP award in both leagues. Erving won four regular season MVPs, three championships, and two Finals MVPs; he did a lot more than just score, but he was also one of the greatest, most consistent scorers of all-time, with scoring averages ranging from 20.0 ppg to 31.9 ppg in his first 14 seasons.

Durant is unlikely to join James in the 40,000 point club, but he has come a long way from being a skinny rookie who was played out of position at guard before blossoming in his second season after being shifted to his natural position of small forward. Durant spent his prime years at small forward but as his body developed and the league began favoring smaller lineups he became a devastating weapon at power forward, stretching the floor while not being afraid to attack the hoop. Durant had a high, loose dribble as a young player but he developed into an effective ballhandler. He did not average at least 4 apg until his sixth season, but he averaged at least 4 apg in each of the next 12 seasons. Durant won four scoring titles, and he posted two 50/40/90 seasons that exemplify how complete his scoring repertoire is: Durant is renowned as a midrange assassin, but he also posts up, drives to the hoop, drains three pointers, and not only draws fouls but shoots his free throws at an elite (.882) clip. Like Erving, Durant has an all-around game, and an impressive list of accomplishments, including two Finals MVPs, two championships, and one regular season MVP.

Six of the nine members of the 30,000 point club are in my Pantheon (an asterisk denotes that the player is in my Pantheon):

                               Pro Basketball's 30,000 Point Club 

1. LeBron James* 41,623 

2. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar* 38,387 

3. Karl Malone 36,928 

4. Kobe Bryant* 33,643 

5. Michael Jordan* 32,292 

6. Dirk Nowitzki 31,560 

7. Wilt Chamberlain* 31,419 

8. Julius Erving* 30,026

9. Kevin Durant  30,008

Labels: Dirk Nowitzki, Julius Erving, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Karl Malone, Kevin Durant, Kobe Bryant, LeBron James, Michael Jordan, Wilt Chamberlain

posted by David Friedman @ 3:25 AM

20 comments

Suns Spoil Clippers' Home Opener in New Arena

The Phoenix Suns built a 14 point first half lead, fell behind by 10 points with just 6:13 remaining in the fourth quarter, and then rallied to beat the L.A. Clippers 116-113 in overtime, spoiling the Clippers' home opener in Steve Ballmer's new arena. Kevin Durant led Phoenix with 25 points while also posting a team-high seven turnovers. Bradley Beal scored 24 points on 8-12 field goal shooting, and poured in seven of the Suns' 13 overtime points. Devin Booker had a quiet game (15 points, six assists) by his lofty standards. Tyus Jones did an excellent job in his debut as the team's starting point guard, finishing with 11 points, a game-high tying eight assists, and no turnovers. The Suns squandered many late leads last season due to poor execution down the stretch, so slotting Jones in as the starting point guard is meant to solve that problem, and if this game is any indication then that plan will work out well.

This game was a microcosm of James Harden's career: he filled up the boxscore with empty calories, and he disappeared when it mattered the most. Harden's game-high 29 points, game-high 12 rebounds, and game-high tying eight assists will make every "stat guru" drool, but it is worth noting not only that Harden had a -4 plus/minus number but also when and how he accumulated his numbers, because the great Bill Russell used to emphasize during his time as a CBS commentator the importance of when a player puts up his numbers. Harden was a no-show in the first half with four points on 2-11 field goal shooting as the Suns built a 47-39 halftime lead, forcing the Clippers to expend energy playing from behind. Then, he erupted for 16 points on 5-9 field goal shooting in the third quarter as the Clippers outscored the Suns 35-25 to take a 74-72 lead heading into the fourth quarter. In the fourth quarter with the game up for grabs, Harden had eight points on 3-7 field goal shooting with a team-worst -7 plus/minus number. 

The Clippers led 99-90 with 3:52 remaining in the fourth quarter, and then Harden did his thing: he missed a 30 foot three pointer, he missed a floater, he turned the ball over, he missed a layup, and he fouled Durant on a three point play that gave the Suns the lead for the first time in the fourth quarter. Harden then tied the game with a stepback jumper and gave the Clippers a brief lead by hitting a pair of free throws before Durant's fadeaway knotted the score at 103 with 21.2 seconds remaining. Harden missed a floater that could have won the game, and in overtime he did not score a point or deliver an assist. Harden once said that he is not a system player but he is "The system" and that is true if he means that he is "The system" for falling behind early, squandering late leads, disappearing in overtime, and putting up "concert tour" field goal percentages in playoff games.

Unfortunately for the Clippers, their hopes will ride or die with Harden, because two-time NBA Finals MVP (2014, 2019) Kawhi Leonard is out indefinitely with a knee injury. It is becoming increasingly evident that the issue with Leonard is not so much that he is intentionally engaging in load management but that rather he just cannot stay healthy. 

In contrast, the Suns have a much sounder foundation, as they are relying on two-time NBA champion/NBA Finals MVP Durant, supported by Booker and Beal, who are excellent as the second and third options respectively. The Suns replaced Frank Vogel, who is an excellent coach, with Mike Budenholzer, who led the Milwaukee Bucks to the 2021 NBA title.

Labels: Bradley Beal, Devin Booker, James Harden, Kawhi Leonard, Kevin Durant, L.A. Clippers, Phoenix Suns, Tyus Jones

posted by David Friedman @ 11:14 AM

0 comments

Stephen Curry's Late Three Point Barrage Leads Team USA to 98-87 Olympic Gold Medal Game Win Over France

"What is easy is seldom excellent."--Samuel Johnson

Stephen Curry scored a team-high 24 points--including 12 points in the final 2:47--as Team USA held off a resilient France to win 98-87 and earn a fifth straight Olympic gold medal game victory. The 11 point final margin belies how competitive this contest was. Team USA was clinging to an 82-79 lead with 3:09 left in the fourth quarter after Victor Wembanyama's putback dunk, but then Curry hit four three pointers in a 2:12 span to save the day. Curry had a game-high +20 plus/minus number and five assists. In the first four games of the Olympics, Curry scored just 29 points and he only shot 5-20 (.200) from three point range, but in two games of medal round play versus Serbia and France he tallied 60 points while shooting 17-26 (.654) from beyond the arc. 

Kevin Durant--who started for the first time for Team USA in 2024--added 15 points, four rebounds, and four assists. He is the first American male basketball player to win four Olympic gold medals. Devin Booker also scored 15 points, and he had six rebounds, three assists, and the game's second best plus/minus number (+18). 

LeBron James capped off an excellent Olympics with another great all-around performance, scoring 14 points, grabbing six rebounds, and dishing for a game-high 10 assists. He joined Curry and Booker as the only players with double digit plus/minus numbers (+17). James averaged 14.2 ppg, 6.2 rpg, and 8.5 apg in the 2024 Olympics, earning MVP honors for the event. James headlines an Olympics All-Star Five that includes Curry, Victor Wembanyama (France), Nikola Jokic (Serbia), and Dennis Schroder (Germany).

No other American player scored in double figures, but Anthony Davis had an impact with eight points, a game-high nine rebounds, and a game-high four blocked shots.

Only four Team USA players played at least 20 minutes: James (32), Durant (31), Curry (30), and Booker (28). Derrick White and Tyrese Haliburton did not play. Haliburton never had a significant role for Team USA, but White ranked sixth on Team USA in minutes played during pool play before falling out of the rotation in medal round play.

Joel Embiid started at center alongside James, Durant, Curry, and Booker, but he finished with just four points in 11 minutes. He did not make a field goal, and he spent much more time on the bench inciting the French crowd than on the court contributing to the win. His decision to play for Team USA instead of France turned out well for him, and he can thank Curry, Durant, James, and Booker for adding a gold medal to a trophy case that is otherwise bereft of team championships. Considering his lack of productivity versus France, it would have been hilarious if the fans had chanted at him in French the familiar taunt that is directed toward players who are helping the opposing team at least as much as they are helping their own team: "He with us!" 

Victor Wembanyama scored a game-high 26 points on 11-19 field goal shooting. Guerschon Yabusele muscled his way to 20 points on 6-14 field goal shooting. Nando De Colo was the only other French player who scored in double figures (12 points). Evan Fournier runs hots and cold as a shooter, and in this game Team USA held him to eight points on 3-10 field goal shooting. France's rotations and substitution patterns were interesting, to put it mildly. Nic Batum played 25 minutes--third most on the team--despite having a plus/minus number (-20) that was -11 worse than any other French player. He led France in rebounding (eight rebounds) and assists (four) so he was productive, but when he was in the game France hemorrhaged points. In contrast, Rudy Gobert played just 12 minutes despite having a +3 plus/minus number. Plus/minus numbers can be noisy in small sample sizes, but Gobert had a positive impact with his defense, rebounding, and screen setting, so a case could be made that he earned more playing time.

In the past several years, France has consistently proven to be a worthy opponent for Team USA. Team USA beat France 87-82 in the gold medal game of the 2020 Olympics (played in 2021) after losing to France 83-76 in the first game of pool play. France also defeated Team USA 89-79 in the 2019 FIBA World Cup.

This game proved to be no different, as it was competitive from the jump ball until the final buzzer.

James opened the scoring with a two-handed fast break dunk, and Wembanyama answered with a three pointer. Team USA led 12-11 at the 4:52 mark of the first quarter when the first substitutions were made, including Davis checking in for Embiid, and Fournier and Gobert entering for France. Tatum checked in for Durant at the 4:12 mark, when the score was still 12-11.

Team USA led 20-15 at the end of the first quarter while holding France to 1-9 three point field goal shooting, and Team USA extended that margin to 24-17 on two inside baskets by Davis. France countered with an 8-0 run to go up, 25-24. James put Team USA up 26-25 with a driving layup, but Team USA was not able to pull away. Yabusele cut Team USA's lead to 40-36 by posterizing James and then completing the three point play after James was called for a blocking foul. Team USA countered with a Curry three pointer followed by Booker's fast break layup and free throw after being fouled on the drive. Team USA led by double digits (46-36) for the first time. Yabusele's layup off of a Wembanyama feed just before the halftime buzzer trimmed Team USA's lead to eight, 49-41. 

Yabusele led France with 15 first half points, while Wembanyama had 13 points, five rebounds, and two assists. Booker was Team USA's only double figure scorer (13 points). James had seven points, five rebounds, and two assists. Team USA shot 9-20 (.450) from three point range in the first half while holding France to 3-16 (.188) three point field goal shooting.

Team USA began the third quarter with a 7-2 run in less than two minutes, and eventually widened the lead to 14 points (61-47), but just when it seemed like Team USA might pull away, Wembanyama hit a three pointer to pull France to within 65-56 at the 4:05 mark. After a timeout, both teams had multiple empty possessions before Fournier's three pointer cut Team USA's lead to 65-59. James answered with a three pointer to put Team USA up 68-59, and Team USA soon pushed the lead to 72-61, but France scored five points in the final 23 seconds to trail just 72-66 heading into the fourth quarter. Team USA had seven turnovers in the third quarter.

Curry did not score in the first 7:13 of the fourth quarter before pouring in 12 of Team USA's 26 fourth quarter points. Team USA led 80-69 with less than seven minutes to go but could not sustain their double digit lead. For most of the fourth quarter, Team USA's offense featured sloppy ballhandling and missed shots, and France had outscored Team USA 13-10 in the final stanza before Curry heated up.

Team USA won the rebounding battle 37-33, but committed 17 turnovers compared to France's 13 turnovers. The key, as is often the case for Team USA in FIBA competitions, was that Team USA held France to 9-30 (.300) three point field goal shooting. As a bonus, Team USA shot 18-36 (.500) from beyond the arc. Curry did most of the long range damage with his 8-12 three point field goal shooting. 

Winning a gold medal under any circumstances is a tremendous accomplishment. Team USA was the prohibitive favorite and in the end they got the job done--but it is worth remembering that Team USA's roster included four members of the NBA's 75th Anniversary Team (James, Durant, Curry, Davis)--and this was almost certainly the last Olympics appearance for at least three of those four players. If Team USA needs that kind of overwhelming talent advantage on paper just to beat Serbia and France in very competitive games, then what foundation is Team USA building--either on this roster, or on the U19 and younger teams--for future FIBA success?

Curry's end of the game three point heroics were incredible--he zigged and zagged through France's defense like a video game character--but this is not a sustainable recipe for FIBA success because (1) this is almost certainly his last FIBA competition and (2) no one else can do what he did. If Team USA's formula for future FIBA success is going to be "Keep the game close and have one dude go ballistic for two minutes from three point range" then Team USA is going to struggle to win more gold medals versus countries that play team ball instead of hero ball. The formula for sustained FIBA success for Team USA is putting together a roster that plays stifling defense and then turns those defensive stops into transition scoring opportunities. It is fine--but not necessary--for some of those transition scoring opportunities to be three pointers, but the four late three pointers that Curry made are a testament to his individual greatness, not great game planning or ball movement.

As a Team USA fan, Curry's awesome late game shooting was exciting, but as an analyst/historian I wonder what is Team USA's plan for the future. 

Labels: 2024 Olympics, France, Guerschon Yabusele, Joel Embiid, Kevin Durant, LeBron James, Stephen Curry, Team USA, Victor Wembanyama

posted by David Friedman @ 10:06 PM

7 comments

Team USA Overcomes 17 Point Deficit to Defeat Serbia, 95-91

Team USA outscored Serbia 32-15 in the fourth quarter to escape with a 95-91 win that punched their ticket to a gold medal game matchup with France on Saturday. Stephen Curry scored a game-high 36 points, one short of Team USA's single game Olympics record--but Curry had his best Olympics performance in a highly competitive game, while Carmelo Anthony scored 37 points in a blowout win versus Nigeria in 2012. Curry shot 12-19 from the field (including 9-14 from three point range), and he had a game-high +20 plus/minus number. 

Joel Embiid had his best all-around game as a member of Team USA, scoring 19 points on 8-11 field goal shooting. He had seven fourth quarter points. LeBron James logged just the fourth triple double in the Olympics since the 1970s (when rebounds and assists began to be tracked consistently), and he is the only player since the 1970s with two Olympics triple doubles. James finished with 16 points, a game-high 12 rebounds, and a team-high 10 assists. 

Jayson Tatum and Tyrese Haliburton did not play, while Anthony Edwards, Anthony Davis, Bam Adebayo, and Derrick White each played 13 minutes or less. With Team USA staring elimination in the face, the players who Coach Steve Kerr trusted the most were Curry (33 minutes), James (32 minutes), Embiid (26 minutes), Devin Booker (24 minutes), Kevin Durant (24 minutes), and Jrue Holiday (20 minutes). 

Bogdan Bogdanovic led Serbia with 20 points, while Nikola Jokic had 17 points, a game-high 11 assists, and five rebounds. Aleksa Avramovic scored 15 points on 5-8 field goal shooting, and he led Serbia's long range attack with 4-6 three point shooting. Team USA only outrebounded Serbia 34-33, and Team USA committed 10 turnovers compared to Serbia's seven turnovers.

It was evident from the opening tip that playing Serbia in the medal round is nothing like playing Brazil, the team that Team USA routed in the first game of medal round play. Serbia dominated Team USA for the first three quarters, leading 31-23 at the end of the first quarter and pushing the margin to 17 (42-25) before settling for a 54-43 halftime lead. It must be emphasized that Serbia controlled the game despite Curry putting on an incredible shooting exhibition, starting with 14 points in the first 3:38 of the game and 17 points overall in the first quarter; what wins for Team USA is not three point shooting or highlight plays, but rather stingy defense leading to transition scoring opportunities--and Team USA did not play that way until very late in the game.

Team USA trimmed the deficit to six, 65-59, on a Holiday three pointer with 3:30 remaining in the third quarter, but then Serbia countered with an 11-2 run to go up 76-61 with just :32 left in the third quarter. The momentum shifted at the 7:19 mark of the fourth quarter when Jokic committed his fourth foul while Serbia led, 78-70; in FIBA play, five fouls result in disqualification, so Jokic could not be as aggressive the rest of the way. On one fourth quarter possession, he backed away from Embiid in the post and gave up an open shot rather than risk being whistled for his fifth foul. 

James' driving layup tied the score at 84 with 3:41 left, and then after a Filip Petrusev dunk put Serbia back on top Curry drilled a three to give Team USA the lead for good, 87-86. Jokic's layup cut Team USA's lead to 93-91 with :26 remaining, but Serbia made a puzzling decision to let 18 seconds run off of the clock before fouling--and then they fouled Curry, whose two free throws iced the win.

Serbia shot 10-19 (.526) from three point range in the first half, and they made 15 three pointers in the first three quarters--five in each quarter--but did not make a single shot from beyond the arc in the fourth quarter as Team USA belatedly lifted their defensive focus and intensity. There could not be a better example proving the point that Team USA's shooting from three point range is not the deciding factor in these games. 

When figuring out what to make of this game, keep in mind that Team USA's roster includes four players from the NBA's 75th Anniversary Team while Serbia's team includes four players who have NBA experience. Jokic is an all-time great and Bogdanovic is a solid NBA starter, but Vasilije Micic has averaged 7.0 ppg in 60 career NBA games and Nikola Jovic has averaged 7.1 ppg in 61 career NBA games.

Here is a fascinating thought experiment: would Serbia have come within five points of beating Team USA if you switched Jokic with any one Team USA player? Keep in mind that 75th Anniversary Team members James, Curry, Durant, and Davis won most of their NBA titles by forming super teams, not by elevating teams without All-Stars. Would any of them even show up for the Olympics if they were told that their team's second best player would be Bogdan Bogdanovic? Curry led an underdog college squad at Davidson so maybe he would accept the challenge, but James, Durant, and Davis are not built like that.

I mean no disrespect to Serbia. In fact, my point is that the Serbian players are better at basketball than they are given credit for being, while American players are overrated. This is not a hot take, or an overreaction to one game. Team USA's game plan for the first 30-plus minutes versus Serbia seemed to be to hope that Curry could make enough three pointers to overcome their sluggish defense and their lack of an effective half court offense; in marked contrast, Serbia played a team game at both ends of the court. American basketball--from high school to college to the NBA--has devolved into an isolation game in which star players are protected by the officials and in which principles of team play at both ends of the court are not emphasized enough. For at least the past 20 years in FIBA play, we have regularly seen that American players who are used to traveling, palming, and being rewarded with free throw attempts after jumping into defenders are not nearly as effective when they are not provided with such leeway. NBA players, particularly American NBA players, rely on rules that favor offense, and their statistics are inflated by that reliance; think of how often NBA players are bailed out by flopping and flailing. Embiid had an excellent game versus Serbia, but in this game and throughout the Olympics he has often flung himself to the floor--as he does all the time in the NBA--only to watch in exasperation as the FIBA referees refused to bail him out. Embiid has bragged that he would average 50 ppg in the NBA if double teaming were outlawed, but a better hypothetical to ponder is how many points he would average if the NBA stopped rewarding him for falling down. 

As I noted in my article about Team USA's performance in the USA Basketball showcase, the popular notion--repeatedly asserted by J.J. Redick--that today's NBA players are vastly superior to NBA players from previous eras does not withstand careful scrutiny. Jokic already has won an NBA championship despite not playing alongside a single All-Star, and now he nearly took down four 75th Anniversary Team members (plus a host of perennial All-Stars) with one NBA starter and two NBA reserves. Either Jokic is the greatest player of all-time, or his Serbian teammates are much better than anyone thinks, or the American players are not quite as good as their press clippings. Again, this is not based on just one game; this is based on watching more than two decades of regression of the American game--with a brief respite when Kobe Bryant and Jason Kidd restored order by playing the kind of perimeter defense that is necessary for Team USA to consistently win in FIBA play: Bryant went 36-0 in FIBA play, and Kidd went 56-0 in FIBA play, but before and after their tenures with Team USA the squad suffered losses to teams that looked vastly inferior on paper if one only considers the players' NBA resumes.

Redick and others assert that the supposedly skinny NBA players of the 1990s, 1980s, and earlier would have had no chance trying to compete against James. If that is true, then why does James need three other 75th Anniversary Team members to barely beat Jokic and--no offense to Serbia--a bunch of skinny dudes who will likely never make an NBA All-Star team? I don't doubt that James would put up big individual numbers in any era, but he would not have won more championships in earlier eras than he won in his own era, unless you can picture Jokic and crew beating any championship team from the 1990s, 1980s, or 1970s. If James needs a team stacked with NBA All-Stars to barely squeak by Jokic and Serbia then James is not beating the 1970s Knicks or Celtics, or the 1980s Lakers, Celtics, Pistons, or 76ers, or the 1990s Bulls unless he has a stacked team.

This close call versus Serbia is just one more example of the extent to which American players who expect to be able to travel and palm the ball while being rewarded with free throw attempts if a defender even breathes on them are not nearly so spectacular when they are expected to play basketball by the written rules and not by the NBA's lenient interpretations of those rules. Remember when Gregg Popovich used to instruct his players to put their hands behind their backs when they guarded James Harden? Popovich was trying to prevent his players from getting into foul trouble based on the ludicrous way that Harden was officiated but--intentionally or not--he was also exposing the extent to which the NBA game is slanted to favor offense.

It is often said that the world has caught up to America in basketball, but that is overly simplistic. It is true that many of the other national teams have improved, but it is undeniable that American basketball has regressed. There is video evidence to demonstrate this. On August 8, 1992, the one and only Dream Team beat Croatia 117-85 to win Olympic gold. Team USA's starting lineup that day was Michael Jordan, Magic Johnson, Scottie Pippen, Charles Barkley, and David Robinson. I realize that half of the people reading this article may not have been alive in 1992, but those of us old enough to have seen all of the Dream Team's games live know the difference between their brand of basketball and the brand of basketball being played by the current version of Team USA. It is fair to say that the Dream Team would have beaten this Serbian team by at least 15-20 points, and probably more. Keep in mind that the Croatian team that the Dream Team thrashed featured three future Hall of Famers: Toni Kukoc, Drazen Petrovic, and Dino Radja. That Croatian team would probably beat this Serbian team. The Dream Team certainly made their share of highlight plays, but they won because of their mastery of basketball fundamentals at both ends of the court: they defended tenaciously, they rebounded, and they punctuated fast breaks with dunks, not "logo threes." 

It is undeniable that Team USA 2024 is far from being a Dream Team, let alone matching the real Dream Team, and even though Team USA is (and should be) the favorite versus France it is not at all certain that Team USA will win the gold medal game. France beat Team USA 83-76 in the first game of the 2020 Olympics (held in 2021), and then battled Team USA to the wire before falling 87-82 in the gold medal game.

Labels: 2024 Olympics, Bogdan Bogdanovic, Joel Embiid, Kevin Durant, LeBron James, Nikola Jokic, Stephen Curry, Team USA

posted by David Friedman @ 1:49 AM

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Team USA Routs Brazil 122-87 to Move Within Two Wins of Capturing Olympic Gold

After posting a 3-0 record in pool play and earning the number one seed in the medal round, Team USA demolished Brazil in the quarterfinals to set up a semifinal matchup on Thursday versus Serbia, who needed overtime to beat Australia. Team USA jumped out to an 18-8 lead within the first five minutes, and enjoyed a double digit cushion most of the rest of the way. Brazil cut the margin to just eight points, 42-34, at the 4:10 mark of the second quarter before Team USA closed the half with a 21-2 run to erase any doubt. As is generally the case in FIBA play, strong defense leading to transition scoring opportunities was the key factor. Team USA held Brazil to 32-77 (.416) field goal shooting overall, including 12-37 (.324) from beyond the arc. Team USA controlled the boards 46-34, and forced 15 turnovers while only turning the ball over 11 times. Each Team USA starter had a plus/minus number of at least +12, a welcome change from previous games when opposing teams kept pace with Team USA's starters before succumbing to Team USA's superior depth.

Starter Devin Booker scored a team-high 18 points on 6-9 field goal shooting in 15 minutes. Anthony Edwards added 17 points on 6-10 field goal shooting off of the bench in 20 minutes. Joel Embiid, inserted in the starting lineup despite his largely desultory play for Team USA, had 14 points and seven rebounds in 12 minutes; naturally, while finally having a good game he engaged in constant celebrations, taunting a French crowd that jeered him for spurning France (he is a French citizen as well) to play for Team USA. Also naturally, Embiid injured his ankle during the first half and did not play in the second half: watching him play for Team USA is like watching him in the NBA playoffs when he usually plays below his regular season standard for most games but has one or two good games and invariably is either injured entering the postseason or gets hurt during the playoffs. He is not expected to miss more time in the Olympics.

Anthony Davis, Team USA's defensive anchor, scored 13 points on 5-9 field goal shooting while also tying Brazil's Georginho De Paula for game-high rebounding honors (eight). LeBron James added 12 points on 5-6 field goal shooting plus a game-high nine assists before leaving the game after taking an elbow to the face. James needed four stitches and did not return to action but he is expected to be fully available for the Serbia game. Kevin Durant chipped in 11 points off of the bench and surpassed Lisa Leslie to become the all-time leading scorer for Team USA in Olympic play (of course, such records are skewed in favor of modern players who participate in the Olympics several times, in contrast to previous eras when American players played in the Olympics just once).

Bruno Caboclo scored a game-high 30 points for Brazil, but Team USA held most of his teammates in check.

Serbia has been up and down during the Olympics, but they have the best player in the world (Nikola Jokic) plus Bojan Bogdanovic and a bunch of scrappy players who most casual fans do not know much about. Team USA handled Serbia pretty easily in both the USA Basketball Showcase and pool play, though it is worth mentioning that in pool play Serbia played even with Team USA for the 31 minutes that Jokic was on the court but was outscored 29-3 during the nine minutes that Jokic was on the bench. If Serbia plays Jokic almost the entire game and he gets a little more help from his teammates then this game could be closer than expected, particularly if Team USA has some defensive lapses.

Labels: 2024 Olympics, Anthony Davis, Devin Booker, Joel Embiid, Kevin Durant, LeBron James, Team USA

posted by David Friedman @ 9:04 AM

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Team USA Cruises to 3-0 Record in Pool Play, Earns Top Seed in Medal Round

On Saturday, Team USA routed Puerto Rico 104-83 in the final game of Olympics pool play. Puerto Rico led 25-17 after the first eight minutes, but Team USA trimmed the margin to 29-25 by the end of the first quarter and then outscored Puerto Rico 39-16 in the second quarter to take a 64-45 halftime lead. Team USA shot just 9-32 (.281) from three point range and that did not matter at all, because they held Puerto Rico to 10-37 (.270) three point shooting. As is generally the case for Team USA in FIBA play, defending the three point line, getting out in transition, and scoring easy baskets were much more important than making three pointers--despite the incessant chatter about the need to stuff the roster with three point shooters: Stephen Curry, widely considered the greatest three point shooter of all-time, shot .263 from three point range in Team USA's three pool play games, and Team USA still won each game by at least 17 points.

Anthony Edwards scored a game-high 26 points in just 17 minutes off of the bench; as has often been the case for Team USA this year, the reserves picked up the slack after the starters were sluggish. Joel Embiid added 15 points on 6-14 field goal shooting, which qualifies as a breakout game for him considering how poorly he has played up to this point; he looks out of shape, but the undersized Puerto Rico team was just the right medicine for him. Kevin Durant added 11 points in 19 minutes off of the bench, while LeBron James, Jayson Tatum, and Anthony Davis each scored 10 points. James had six rebounds and a game-high eight assists, and Tatum tied Puerto Rico's Ismael Romero for game-high honors with 10 rebounds.

Team USA finished Olympics pool play with a 3-0 record. Team USA previously beat Serbia (110-84) and South Sudan (103-86 after nearly losing to South Sudan in the USA Basketball Showcase)--and has earned the number seed in the medal round based on their overall point differential of +64. Canada and Germany also went 3-0, but they had point differentials of +47 and +20 respectively. In the Olympics, blowing out an inferior opponent is an important tactic for getting a better seed, not bad sportsmanship.

The medal round is single elimination, so the NBA players have to adjust their mindsets from seven game playoff series during which each game lasts 48 minutes to the reality that one bad 40 minute game--or even one bad stretch during a 40 minute game--could be the end of the road. Team USA is the clear favorite to win the gold medal, but the other top FIBA teams are not pushovers. Team USA must continue to defend the perimeter aggressively and then score easy baskets in transition; if the game slows down, the top FIBA teams may pick them apart in the halfcourt. Depth is a major weapon--perhaps the major weapon--for Team USA; it is fascinating to see that even unheralded FIBA teams that lack NBA stars can hang with Team USA's first unit of all-time great players before being overwhelmed after Team USA's second unit enters the fray.

Edwards led Team USA in scoring (16.7 ppg on .633 field goal shooting) during pool play, followed closely by Durant (16.0 ppg on .636 field goal shooting). James is third in scoring (14.3 ppg on .643 field goal shooting), first in assists (7.3 apg), and third in rebounding (6.7 rpg) behind Tatum (7.5 rpg) and Davis (7.0 rpg).

Team USA has been rolling so comfortably that media members have felt compelled to make up drama-filled headlines, shrieking in horror when Tatum did not play versus Serbia and then again when Embiid did not play versus South Sudan. Team USA's Coach Steve Kerr explained those lineup choices as being strictly matchup-related; he does not have a set rotation, but instead shuffles his starting lineup and adjusts playing time based on the strengths/weaknesses of the opponent. If the people covering the 2024 Olympics did their research then they would know that the 1992 Dream Team--the first Team USA squad that had NBA players on the roster--had many different starting lineups; every player on the roster except John Stockton and Christian Laettner started at least one game, with most players starting three or four of the eight games (not surprisingly, Michael Jordan was the only player who started all eight games).

Team USA will face Brazil in the quarterfinals on Tuesday. The winner of that game will play the winner of Australia versus Serbia. In the other bracket, the winner of Germany versus Greece will face the winner of Canada versus France, with the winner of that semifinal matchup advancing to the gold medal game to presumably face Team USA.

Labels: 2024 Olympics, Anthony Davis, Anthony Edwards, Jayson Tatum, Joel Embiid, Kevin Durant, LeBron James, Team USA

posted by David Friedman @ 3:54 AM

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