Will the Real Cavs and Celtics Please Stand Up?
The Boston Celtics won an NBA-best 66 regular season games and then almost lost in the first round to a 37 win Atlanta team. The Cleveland Cavaliers made it to the 2007 NBA Finals and then traded away half of their roster, with mixed results thus far. Do we really know who either of these teams are? In about two weeks, one of these teams will be playing in the Eastern Conference Finals and the other one will be trying to figure out what went wrong (6/17/15 edit: the link to CavsNews.com no longer works, so I have posted the original article below):
Are the real
Boston Celtics the team that went 66-16 this season or are they the team that
lost three playoff games in Atlanta
to move within 48 minutes of suffering the biggest upset in NBA postseason
history? Are the real Cleveland Cavaliers the team that routed the Washington
Wizards in game two or are they the team that Washington ran over in game three? Within
the next two weeks or so we will find out who the real Boston Celtics and Cleveland
Cavaliers are, because by that time one of these teams will advance to the
Eastern Conference Finals while the other team will spend the offseason trying
to figure out what went wrong.
Boston and Cleveland
split their regular season series 2-2 but you can disregard the first three
games because they took place prior to Cleveland’s
big trade. Cleveland’s fourth game versus Boston was a 92-87 road loss on February 27,
just five days after the trade. It was a back to back for Cleveland and the
team’s third game in four nights, while the Celtics had a day off prior to the
game after returning from a five game Western road trip. LeBron James missed
the last 4:24 of the first half versus Boston
after spraining his ankle but he returned to action in the second half.
Needless to say, considering the scheduling, the adjustment period after the
trade and James’ injury that fourth game cannot tell us too much about the
upcoming playoff series.
One thing
that we do know is that when James has been on the court for the Cavaliers this
season they have been competitive with the Celtics and that is a significant
consideration. The individual matchup between LeBron James and Paul Pierce has
gotten chippy on several occasions over the years so it will be very
interesting to see them square off against each other in the playoffs for the
first time. James clearly is the better player but the Celtics have a lot of
bodies that they can throw at James defensively and James can certainly expect
to receive some hard fouls—though hopefully no reckless and dangerous blows
like the ones that Washington’s Brendan Haywood and DeShawn Stevenson
delivered—particularly if he does not shoot a good free throw percentage.
Cleveland’s three pronged formula for victory
is defense, rebounding and the all-around brilliance of James. Cleveland’s rebounding has been pretty
consistent this season and James obviously has played at an MVP-level but the
Cavs’ defense has been up and down, mainly due to the roster instability caused
by holdouts, injuries and the trade. The Cavs put it all together in game two
versus Washington,
which was certainly their best overall performance since the trade and probably
their best game since last season. Then they fell flat on their faces in game
three. The Cavs bounced back from that disaster to win two of the next three
games but Boston
is obviously a step up in weight class. Last year’s frontcourt rotation of
Zydrunas Ilgauskas, Drew Gooden and Anderson Varerjao had a nearly perfect
blend of size, mobility and shooting touch; the current frontcourt rotation of
Ilgauskas, Ben Wallace, Varejao and Joe Smith has one more body but is older
and not quite as well balanced. Wallace has obviously lost a lot of his
athleticism and some of his energy, so he neither rebounds nor defends with his
former gusto. Smith struggled with his shot versus Washington
and neither Wallace nor Varejao are big-time scoring options, so Cleveland misses the
scoring punch that Gooden provided.
Cleveland used a backcourt rotation of Larry
Hughes, Sasha Pavlovic and Daniel Gibson during last year’s run to the NBA
Finals. Hughes departed in the trade and Pavlovic has been injured down the
stretch, so the current backcourt rotation is Delonte West, Wally Szczerbiak,
Gibson and Devin Brown. Again, the Cavs have one more body than they did last
season but whether or not the current rotation blends together as well as last
year’s did is still an open question. West is the one player from the big trade
who has probably come closest to consistently producing at the expected level.
Szczerbiak’s shooting has been very inconsistent and his defense is not good,
to be charitable; he will have major difficulties guarding Ray Allen. Gibson
has been nursing an ankle injury but he is a big-time shooter who has proven
that he can make clutch shots. Brown is a nice utility player who defends and
can provide some scoring even though he is not a pure shooter.
If the Cavs
had a healthy version of last year’s roster I’d definitely pick them to beat
this year’s Celtics; that Cavs team proved versus Detroit that it could beat a strong team in a
hostile environment in a playoff setting. The current Cavs have one extra body
in both the frontcourt and backcourt rotations, so I understand Danny Ferry’s
thinking in pulling the trigger on the trade, but the new Cavs have not been
together as long as the previous unit was (that crew had multiple seasons
together plus two full playoff runs in 2006 and 2007) and there are questions
about the scoring punch at the power forward position and the defense at the
shooting guard position.
Boston actually has a very similar formula
for success that involves defense and rebounding but spreads the offensive load
among the “Big Three” of Pierce, Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen. The Celtics’
bread and butter offensive play is to get Pierce the ball on the left side
either on the block or facing up his defender on the wing (depending on whether
the defender is a small, quick player or a big, slow player). Pierce has three
point range and is good at drawing contact to get to the free throw line, so
that offensive set poses a lot of problems for opposing defenses. Garnett likes
to shoot face up jumpers. When he goes to the block his preferred move is a
high arcing turnaround jumper while fading away slightly. Garnett’s two pet
moves are not apt to draw contact or put him in good offensive rebounding
position, so if the Celtics need a two point basket they are more apt to go to
Pierce. Of course, if the Celtics need a three pointer then they will run Allen
off of several screens to pop him open. Pierce can make threes and bench
players James Posey and Eddie House are also long range threats.
Young point
guard Rajon Rondo has performed better than a lot of people expected and the
Celtics acquired veteran Sam Cassell to be a steadying hand for about 16
minutes a game during the playoffs. Starting center Kendrick Perkins is a solid
player who crashes the offensive boards and dives to the hoop when one of the
“Big Three” gets double-teamed. Bench players Posey, Glen Davis and Leon Powe
provide energy and hustle.
The most
impressive thing this year about the Celtics is how consistently dominant they
have been at the defensive end of the court. That is why it is so surprising
that they lost three games to the Hawks. Those losses can be attributed to Atlanta’s athleticism and
some complacency by the Celtics after taking a 2-0 lead but it is also fair to
wonder if the Celtics will prove to truly be a championship level defensive
squad against good teams on the road. The disconcerting thing for Celtics’ fans
is that down the stretch in the games in Atlanta
the team lost its way both defensively and offensively. Maybe that series was
just a test that the Celtics had to pass on the way to becoming a championship
team or maybe the Celtics were exposed a bit in terms of not being a great
squad despite their impressive regular season record.
This may
sound odd, but the key to this series is game one. That is the underdog’s best
opportunity to steal a game and if the Cavaliers win game one then the Celtics
will have to win at least one game in Cleveland and that thought would weigh
heavily on the Celtics during game two. The Celtics have shown all year that
they are great frontrunners but can they execute under pressure in a playoff
series if they lose homecourt advantage right off the bat? Atlanta pushed the Celtics but deep down the
Celtics knew that they were the better team and that they had a game seven at
home in their back pockets. If they lose game one to Cleveland then they will not have such a
comfort zone. The blueprint for Cleveland
to win this series is to come out with a high energy performance defensively in
game one, backed up by a near triple double by James and timely shooting by one
or two of the perimeter players. That would set a great tone and provide Cleveland with an
opportunity to ultimately close the series out in game six at home.
Cleveland is certainly capable of pulling this
off but looking at the Celtics’ body of work this season compared to the
Cavaliers’ body of work, Boston
has to be considered the favorite. I expect the Celtics to win a tough seven
game series but if Cleveland
steals game one then the Cavaliers have a good shot of taking the series in six
games.
Labels: Boston Celtics, Cleveland Cavaliers, Kevin Garnett, LeBron James, Paul Pierce, Ray Allen
posted by David Friedman @ 11:13 PM
2 Comments:
Nice analysis David. As Cavs fan, I was pleased to see you didn't completely dismiss this team like the rest of the media seems to be doing.
In a lot of ways, Cleveland is built for the playoffs and they have the luxury of having a clutch player who usually rises to the occasion in crunch time.
Celtics will be very tough, but if Cleveland wins one of the first two, I like them to get it done. Of course, much of this depends on the ability of the rest of the Cavs (read: Wally, Boobie, and West) to knock down some shots consistently.
I really have no idea if that will happen, but if so, watch out.
Sean:
Last year I picked the Cavs to make it to the Finals because I believed that their formula of defense, rebounding and the brilliance of LeBron James would enable them to get past the Pistons, who they almost beat in 2006.
The people who are down on the Cavs either don't understand the importance of defense and rebounding or they underestimate how good LeBron James is; why else would anyone have picked the Wizards to beat the Cavs?
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