20 Second Timeout

Stephen Curry Sets Record for Career Three Pointers Made as Warriors Beat Knicks 105-96

Stephen Curry scored a team-high 22 points and he set the ABA/NBA career record for regular season three point field goals made--breaking Ray Allen's mark of 2973--while leading his Golden State Warriors to a 105-96 win over the slumping New York Knicks. Curry shot 8-19 from the field (including 5-14 from three point range) and he hit two three pointers in the first 4:27 of the first quarter to tie and then pass Allen on the career list. Allen had held the record since 2011, when he surpassed Reggie Miller, who finished his career in 2005 with 2560 regular season three point field goals made. Allen made a special trip to Madison Square Garden to be on hand to personally congratulate Curry, while Miller was at the game to do color commentary for TNT.

In his previous three games, Curry shot 22-59 (.373) from the field overall, including 14-46 (.304) from three point range. He had 13 assists and 14 turnovers in those contests. When Curry was 16 three pointers away from the record, he spoke openly about the possibility of making 16 three pointers in one game, which would break the single game record of 14 held by Curry's teammate Klay Thompson. Prior to Tuesday night's game, Curry shot .400 or worse from the field in 12 of his 26 games this season, and he shot .300 or worse from three point range in 12 games. 

Imagine for a moment if Kobe Bryant had posted such poor numbers over a three game stretch while chasing an individual career record and talking to the media about chasing an individual single game record as well. Would the media coverage portray Bryant positively or negatively? Anyone who follows the NBA knows that the media coverage of Bryant in that scenario would be overwhelmingly negative, and that Bryant would be depicted as "selfish," "not focused on team success," "uncoachable," and so forth. 

It is hypocritical to bash Bryant as a self-centered player when he set individual records, but then praise Curry for seeking individual glory even when doing so clearly is having a negative impact on his efficiency, and possibly even jeopardizing team success. Curry's Warriors went 2-1 in the three games referenced above, but the wins came against two teams that are performing poorly (Indiana and Portland) while the loss came against a team that is hardly setting the league on fire (Philadelphia). 

Why is it acceptable for Curry to openly chase individual records, and to perform very inefficiently while doing so? 

If setting a career individual record is a great accomplishment and it is acceptable to openly seek to set career individual records, then that standard should be applied to all record-seekers. If doing so is selfish, then that standard should be applied to all record-seekers. 

To be clear, I don't think that Bryant was selfish, nor do I think that Curry is selfish. The point is not to criticize either player, but rather to demonstrate the hypocrisy of many media members.

It also should be noted that little to no media attention has been focused on the evolution of the career record for three pointers made. The current NBA was created in 1976 by a merger of the old NBA with the ABA's four surviving teams. The ABA used the three pointer throughout its nine year existence, but the ABA did not invent the three pointer; the ABL, which survived for less than two seasons in the early 1960s, was the first professional basketball league to use the three pointer, but the first recorded instance of the three pointer being utilized is a 1945 college game featuring Columbia versus Fordham. There are at least a couple other examples of the three pointer being used in individual college games long before the NCAA began using the three pointer in all college games in the 1986-87 season (a few NCAA conferences used the three pointer in the early 1980s before the rule was codified for all NCAA games).

The player who held the ABA/NBA career record for regular season three point field goals made for longer than any other player is Louie Dampier, who made 794 regular season three point field goals during his career. Dampier played in the ABA during each of the league's nine seasons (1967-76), and then he played three NBA seasons before retiring in 1979, one season before the NBA began using the three point shot. Les Selvage led the ABA with 147 three point field goals made in the league's inaugural season, while Dampier ranked ninth with 38 three point field goals made. Selvage only made four more three pointers during his brief career, so Chico Vaughn became the career leader in 1969 after making 137 three pointers in the ABA's first season and 145 three pointers in the ABA's second season. In 1970, Dampier--who set the single season record with 199 three pointers in 1969, and then made 198 three pointers in 1970--established a new career record with 435 three pointers, and he remained on top until Dale Ellis passed him during the 1992-93 season.

Ellis held the career record until Miller broke his mark in 1998. Miller retired in 2005, and he held the career record from 1998 until Ray Allen passed him in 2011. 

Note that the record that Dampier set during nine ABA seasons lasted until the 14th season after the NBA began utilizing the three point shot; thus, including the three post-ABA/NBA merger seasons during which the NBA did not utilize the three pointer, Dampier held the record for over 20 years, much longer than Ellis, Miller, or Allen. 

Curry is a fantastic shooter, but he is thriving in an era during which minimal defensive contact is allowed while most NBA players are encouraged to shoot many three pointers--and this era would have been perfectly suited not only for Dampier, but, also for Selvage, Vaughn, Ellis, Miller, Allen, and many others. Imagine if Pistol Pete Maravich had played in this era, let alone if he had played on a team coached by Steve Kerr or Mike D'Antoni!

The TNT studio crew speculated that Curry's record may never be broken, but a player has made at least 200 three pointers in a season over 100 times, and there have been 25 times that a player made at least 250 three pointers in a season. It is not clear if the steady increase in three pointers attempted and made has stabilized or not, but unless there is a big decrease in the utilization of the three pointer there is a decent chance that Curry's record will be broken. It is not inconceivable that at least one player will average 200 or 250 three pointers made per season for 15 years or so; in fact, unless something changes about the way the game is being played it seems almost inevitable that Curry will be surpassed in 15 or 20 years, or possibly even sooner. 

Acknowledging the reality that this record is likely made to be broken under the prevailing circumstances takes nothing away from Curry's greatness. He is the most prolific outside shooter of his era, and a good case can be made that he is the greatest shooter of all-time. It is fun to watch Curry play, and it is refreshing to see both his joy and his work ethic; it is not nearly as enjoyable to read, watch, and/or listen to media coverage of him, but the media's shortcomings are not his fault.

Labels: Dale Ellis, Golden State Warriors, Les Selvage, Louie Dampier, New York Knicks, Ray Allen, Reggie Miller, Stephen Curry

posted by David Friedman @ 2:04 AM

13 comments

"Inside the NBA" Should Have Discussed DeSean Jackson's Comments and the Farrakhan Issue

It was great to see the original "Inside the NBA" crew tonight. "Inside the NBA" is probably the greatest sports studio show ever, providing a deft combination of intelligence and humor while covering a broad range of topics beyond who won and who lost. "Inside the NBA" has a long track record of thoughtfully discussing a wide variety of issues.

The high standard long set by "Inside the NBA" is why I am disappointed that tonight's episode ignored recent pro-Louis Farrakhan statements made by several high profile people, including Ice Cube, DeSean Jackson and Stephen Jackson.

Ice Cube has been a guest on "Inside the NBA" and he collaborated with Kenny Smith for a Kobe Bryant tribute aired by TNT. DeSean Jackson is an NFL player, but "Inside the NBA" discussed at length comments recently made by NFL player Drew Brees. Stephen Jackson is an NBA champion and a prominent sports media personality.

Ice Cube tweeted, "The Honorable Louis Farrakhan continues to warn America to this very second and he's labeled one of your 'evil names' and you turn your ears off. Why is the truth so offensive that you can't stand to hear it?"

DeSean Jackson tweeted with approval a quote that he (incorrectly) attributed to Adolf Hitler stating that Jews "will blackmail America" and Jackson also tweeted his support for Louis Farrakhan.

Stephen Jackson reacted to DeSean Jackson's tweet by repeating the classic antisemitic trope that Jews run all of the banks: "You know who the Rothschilds are? They own all the banks...I haven't said one thing that's untrue yet." Stephen Jackson also said, "I'm a fan of Minister Farrakhan because nobody loves Black people more than him. He hasn't told me to hate somebody one time. He's teaching me how to be a leader. Just because you don't like him, doesn't mean I'm gonna not like him."

It never should be acceptable to promote hatred, and one would hope that in today's climate any kind of hatred would be deemed unacceptable. Perhaps you are not familiar with Louis Farrakhan; perhaps you agree with Chuck D, the front man for Public Enemy--unquestionably one of the greatest rap groups ever--who once sang, "The follower of Farrakhan/Don't tell me that you understand/Until you hear the man."
The SPLC article about Farrakhan is worth reading in full. Here is an excerpt:

Farrakhan’s antisemitism has earned him some strange allies. Former Klan and White Aryan Resistance leader Tom Metzger was so impressed with Farrakhan's anti-Semitic bombast that he donated $100 to NOI after attending a Farrakhan rally in Los Angeles in September 1985. Given that white supremacists share NOI’s belief in separation of the races, a month later, Metzger and 200 other white supremacists from the United States and Canada gathered on a farm about 50 miles west of Detroit, where they pledged their support for the Nation of Islam.

Antisemitism is only one of Farrakhan's many prejudices. Over the years, his comments have consistently been rabidly anti-gay. "God don't like men coming to men with lust in their hearts like you should go to a female," he told a Kansas City crowd in 1996. "If you think that the kingdom of God is going to be filled up with that kind of degenerate crap, you're out of your damn mind."

"Inside the NBA" is watched by millions of people, and the "Inside the NBA" crew is highly respected and influential. They missed a golden opportunity to educate their audience about these issues. Ray Allen would have been a perfect guest. Allen has discussed how moving it was for him to visit the Holocaust Museum in Washington, D.C. Speaking of the Holocaust Museum, New England Patriots' receiver Julian Edelman provided a heartfelt response to DeSean Jackson: "How about we go to DC and I take you to the Holocaust Museum. And you take me to the Museum of African American history and culture...And we have those uncomfortable conversations." It would have sent a wonderful and positive message if "Inside the NBA" had spoken truth to power, and had asked Allen to give his thoughts about Edelman's statement.

I have often criticized Mike Wilbon for his basketball analysis, but I will give him credit for addressing directly and unequivocally the comments made by Stephen Jackson. On "Pardon the Interruption" Wilbon declared, "This is not tolerable...It undermines everything Stephen Jackson said so eloquently on behalf of Black Lives Matter. He has no credibility now. He has undermined his own previous good work with this garbage. And it's garbage. I know Stephen Jackson. I like him. If I was sitting with him now--I have worked with him--I would say, 'Stephen, stop! You're wrong. You're not speaking any truth. You're going to have to become more familiar with the truth via history. Let's read some. We'll read it together. This is insane. You are ruining weeks of actually trying to appeal to people on one level and then bringing your own bigotry and prejudice in at a time when no one can afford to say that, to have that, to entertain it.'"

Wilbon is right. It is a shame that Ernie Johnson, Kenny Smith, Charles Barkley, and Shaquille O'Neal did not step up and deliver a similar message. For that matter, where are NBA Commissioner Adam Silver and NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell?

Louis Farrakhan has spent decades making it very clear who he is and what he believes. The time has past for the sports figures, celebrities, politicians, and public figures who have invoked his name to make it clear who they are and what they believe.

Labels: Charles Barkley, DeSean Jackson, Ernie Johnson, Ice Cube, Inside the NBA, Julian Edelman, Kenny Smith, Louis Farrakhan, Mike Wilbon, Ray Allen, Shaquille O'Neal, Stephen Jackson

posted by David Friedman @ 11:56 PM

6 comments

Thoughts and Observations About the 2018 Naismith Memorial Basketball Hall of Fame Enshrinement Ceremony

In my article Maurice Cheeks, Charlie Scott and Rod Thorn Are Among the Basketball Hall of Fame's Newest Members, I focused on three of the 13 members of the Basketball Hall of Fame's 2018 class. Last night, those men and their classmates were officially enshrined.

Grant Hill was enshrined first. He and 2018 Hall of Fame classmate Jason Kidd will forever be linked not only as co-Rookies of the Year in 1995 but also as unselfish, all-around players who focused first and foremost on team success. Hill alluded to his tendency to be verbose and joked that his wife had urged him to remember the "Five Bs: Be brief, brother, be brief." Turning serious, Hill said that he "fell in love with the game of basketball" by watching Patrick Ewing dominate in both college and the NBA. Hill called Ewing his "basketball hero." Ewing and Duke Coach Mike Krzyzewski were Hill's two presenters. Hill thanked Coach Krzyzewski for providing the "blueprint" for success. Next, Hill mentioned Isiah Thomas. Hill seemed uncertain whether or not Thomas was in attendance (perhaps that is why he did not choose Thomas as a presenter as well) but as soon as Hill realized that Thomas was in the building he called him up to the stage and embraced Thomas, who he called a "hero, a friend and an advocate for me." Hill thanked Alonzo Mourning for providing the inspiration for how to come back from health problems/injuries. Hill became emotional when he thanked his parents for how they raised him and when he acknowledged his two daughters and his wife. Hill asked his wife if his speech had been short enough and he promised that the other enshrinees' speeches would be shorter.

Rod Thorn spoke next. He was presented by Jerry West. Thorn thanked the Hall of Fame and Jerry Colangelo in particular. Thorn singled out three Hall of Famers who had a special impact on him:  Bob ("Slick") Leonard, Richie Guerin and Lenny Wilkens.

Younger fans may not remember or know that Thorn was a collegiate star at West Virginia who was selected by the Baltimore Bullets with the second overall pick in the 1963 NBA Draft. Thorn played eight seasons in the NBA before becoming a coach, general manager and league executive. After injuries forced him to retire from playing, Thorn considered going to law school before Kevin Loughery offered him a job as an assistant coach with the New York Nets in the ABA. Thorn recalled, "I knew in my heart I wasn't ready to let the game go."

Thorn said that since his career started as a player he wanted to mention three players "who all had a profound impact on my life": Julius Erving, Michael Jordan and Jason Kidd. Thorn said of Erving, "In 1974, my first season with the Nets, we won the league championship, sparked by the incomparable Julius Erving, who led the team in nearly every statistical category. Night after night, he would perform such incredible athletic feats that would have Kevin and I looking at each other and exclaiming, 'I cannot believe he just did that.' As great as Doc was as a player, he was equally good as a teammate. Thank you Doc for proving that superheroes can be humans, too."

These comments reinforce what Thorn told me over a decade ago about Erving: "I think that he was the best teammate of all the players I've been involved with in 40-plus years of NBA basketball. He was our leading scorer, our leading rebounder, our leading shot blocker, our leading assist guy--you name it, he led our team in it, plus he was the leader of our team. He guarded the best forward every night, whether it was a small forward or a big forward. He took most of the big shots. Not only was he a great player, but more importantly he was a great teammate. He had great lateral quickness and he was a tremendous jumper. He was a tough guy--that is one thing that is not talked about that much when you talk about Julius, because of his great athleticism, but he was a tough guy. I mean he would physically get after guys and play hard. He took a challenge. He played 43-44 minutes a game for us and guarded the best guy on the other team every night and was our leading scorer, so the energy that he expended during a game was much more than the average player did. It was just phenomenal what he did."

As the Chicago Bulls' general manager, Thorn drafted Michael Jordan. Thorn joked that without Jordan he would not have a Wikipedia page and he would not have people sending him items to autograph asking for his signature and "by the way" asking for Jordan's signature as well.

Thorn won the 2002 NBA Executive of the Year Award after acquiring Kidd and building the Nets into a championship contender. Thorn recalled that when he rejoined the Nets, "The team had challenges defending, rebounding and passing, which as you know are the ingredients of a 26 win season." After trading for Kidd, Thorn's Nets won 52 games, one of the best one season turnarounds in league history.

Maurice Cheeks followed Thorn. In the video tribute before Cheeks spoke, Erving said, "He had a very, very high basketball IQ. He was a champion, he was an All-Star and I loved playing with him." Erving and Billy Cunningham presented Cheeks. Cheeks is known as a quiet man of few words but he gave the most emotionally gripping speech of the evening. He opened by saying, "This is amazing and Grant, you're right, this will be short." Cheeks credited his experiences growing up on the South Side of Chicago for teaching him to look out for others as others had looked out for him. He said, "My life has been a string of small moments that led to amazing experiences." Cheeks mentioned his high school teammate William Dise, who was a highly recruited player who signed with West Texas State on condition that the school also sign Cheeks, a skinny and lightly recruited prospect. Cheeks said that his career would have gone much differently if not for Dise.

Cheeks thanked Coach Cunningham and said that he was the kind of coach that you never wanted to let down. Cheeks praised Erving for teaching him how to be a pro and Cheeks also thanked his veteran teammates Andrew Toney, Moses Malone, Bobby Jones, Caldwell Jones, and Henry Bibby. Cheeks said, "Over the years I have had many reasons to thank the Lord and two of them are my beautiful kids...I'm proud to be your dad and I love you both." Cheeks thanked his three brothers, one of whom was murdered in 1991. Cheeks started to get emotional at that point and mentioned that Charles Barkley told him not to cry but Cheeks broke down when he talked about "my very first coach, Mama Cheeks" and all that she did for him and their family--including calling out Maurice's name and his brothers' names so that they would come inside when it got dark. Mama Cheeks attended the ceremony and she looked very proud. As Cheeks wept, Erving walked over, gently grabbed his shoulders and said softly, "Come on Mo, you can do it," lending a helping hand much like Cheeks had lent a helping hand to National Anthem singer Natalie Gilbert years ago. I felt as a kid that the 76ers were a special team with special people and moments like this just confirm that. I am so blessed to have watched that team and then to have had the opportunity to interview Erving, Cunningham, Jones and Pat Williams. Cheeks concluded by thanking the Hall of Fame for "thinking enough of my contributions to the sport to select me for such an honor. I cannot think of a better way to celebrate my 40 years in the NBA and my 62nd birthday (on Saturday). Thank you and God bless."

Later in the program, Charlie Scott was presented by Jerry Colangelo, Dave Cowens, Julius Erving, Spencer Haywood and Roy Williams. During the video tribute to Scott, Erving noted, "He broke the color barrier very much like Jackie Robinson did (in baseball), except it was getting a basketball scholarship to the University of North Carolina and integrating the school. Charlie Scott was a monster on the basketball court. He could score inside, he could score outside."

Scott began by explaining how he selected his presenters. He said that they were each friends of his for over 40 years. Scott joked that his wife said if they have known him for 40 years and still speak to him then they all deserve to be on the stage with him. "This is an honor that I always dreamed of but could never imagine happening," Scott declared. He called Dean Smith "My mentor and the person who I admire the most in my life." Scott thanked his North Carolina teammates, including Larry Miller, for standing beside him during the sometimes difficult racial integration process. He individually thanked each of his presenters. Regarding Erving and Cowens, the never hesitant to shoot Scott quipped that he helped each of them become great rebounders.

Scott concluded by thanking his wife and children. He said that he once asked a friend to describe him honestly, good and bad. Scott asked his family to raise their hands if they disagreed with this characterization: "People sometimes might take your aloofness as arrogance. You can become very demanding in getting your way. You don't know when to let things go. You never give compliments. You think you're always right....The shocker was his next sentence: Let me tell you about your bad points!" Scott paused after each point and noted that no one in his family raised their hands. He laughed and said, "This was the individual you had to deal with. Your unconditional love and understanding have been my North Star."

In 2015, I wondered if Julius Erving had been a Hall of Fame presenter more than anyone else. At that time, Erving had been selected as a presenter nine times. Now, including last night, he has been a presenter 14 times (9/11/21 note: I just added Alex English to this list after confirming that Erving was English's presenter):

1995: Presented Cheryl Miller
1996: None
1997: Alex English
1998-2000: None
2001: Presented Moses Malone
2002-2003: None
2004: Presented Clyde Drexler
2005: None
2006: Presented Dominique Wilkins
2007-2010: None
2011: Presented Artis Gilmore
2012: Presented Katrina McClain, Ralph Sampson and the All-American Red Heads
2013-2014: None
2015: Presented John Calipari
2016: Presented Allen Iverson and Shaquille O'Neal
2017: None
2018: Presented Maurice Cheeks and Charlie Scott

That list of names spans multiple generations and includes teammates, opponents and players who grew up idolizing Erving. What a tribute to Erving's deep and continuing impact on the sport!

There is a lot of depth to Ray Allen beyond his basketball accomplishments. When you read his words or listen to him speak you understand that he is a remarkable person, not just a great basketball player. Allen spoke repeatedly of the dedication, discipline, perfectionism and sacrifice that it takes to become a great individual player and to become a two-time NBA champion. Those words resonate and are true but what resonated the most is when he talked about his children. Allen was the only enshrinee who talked to/about each of his children specifically and described why each child is so special to him. Allen emphatically declared, "All of you kids are my greatest legacy. I learned in life that our kids pay attention to everything we do, everything we say and everything we don't say and everything we don't do. So I have to be an example to these young people at all times and we got to make sure that we are an example to the kids in our lives at all times, because we do set the tone and the example in all of our communities."

Allen also said, "I don't believe in talent. I'm here because I worked hard my whole life. Without that work, no one in this room would know who I am except my family. So to all the kids around the world watching, paying attention and aspiring to be like us or even on this stage, put the work in and watch the magical ride you go on."

Labels: Basketball Hall of Fame, Charlie Scott, Grant Hill, Isiah Thomas, Julius Erving, Maurice Cheeks, Mike Krzyzewski, Patrick Ewing, Ray Allen, Rod Thorn

posted by David Friedman @ 10:15 PM

2 comments

Maurice Cheeks, Charlie Scott and Rod Thorn Are Among the Basketball Hall of Fame's Newest Members

In September, the Naismith Memorial Basketball Hall of Fame will welcome 13 new members: Ray Allen, Maurice Cheeks, Lefty Driesell, Grant Hill, Jason Kidd, Steve Nash, Dino Radja, Charlie Scott, Katie Smith, Tina Thompson, Rod Thorn, Ora Mae Washington and Rick Welts. Many media reports state that this class is "headlined" by Allen, Hill, Kidd and Nash--but this article will focus on Cheeks, Scott and Thorn, three individuals who have been eligible for induction for many years but have been overlooked by the Hall until now.

Maurice Cheeks was the starting point guard for the 1983 Philadelphia 76ers, who set a record by going 12-1 in the playoffs en route to sweeping the defending champion L.A. Lakers in the NBA Finals. Cheeks also started for the 1980 and 1982 Philadelphia teams that lost to the powerful Lakers in the NBA Finals. He made the All-Star team four times and earned five All-Defensive Team selections (including four First Team honors).

Cheeks never led the league in a statistical category but he was a consistently excellent performer who ranked first in career regular season steals and fifth in career regular season assists when he retired; he now ranks fifth and 13th respectively in those categories, ahead of many players who were inducted in the Hall of Fame before him. Cheeks posted an outstanding .523 career regular season field goal percentage, a testament not only to his shooting ability but also to his judicious shot selection. Cheeks understood when to shoot and when to deliver the ball to fellow Hall of Fame teammates such as Julius Erving, Moses Malone and Charles Barkley.

Cheeks had a Hall of Fame moment as a person during his tenure as Portland's head coach. Prior to a 2003 playoff game, 13 year old Natalie Gilbert froze as she was singing the National Anthem. Cheeks walked over, put his arm around her and helped her finish singing. "It was like a guardian angel had come and put his arm around my shoulder and helped me get through one of the most difficult experiences I've ever had," said Gilbert.

Kidd, arguably the greatest point guard of his era, summed it perfectly upon learning that Cheeks will be joining him in the 2018 Hall of Fame class: "Mo Cheeks is who we all wanted to be."

Charlie Scott was the University of North Carolina's first black scholarship athlete. Scott made the All-America Team twice and he twice led the Tar Heels to the Final Four. He won Olympic gold with Team USA in 1968. Scott was drafted by the NBA's Boston Celtics but he signed with the ABA's Virginia Squires, winning the 1971 Rookie of the Year award after averaging 27.1 ppg. Scott also finished third in MVP balloting behind Hall of Famers Mel Daniels and Zelmo Beaty. The next season, rookie Julius Erving joined the Squires and Scott led the ABA in scoring (34.6 ppg) before leaving the Squires to jump to the NBA just before the playoffs. Scott joined the Phoenix Suns and the Suns sent Paul Silas to the Celtics as compensation since the Celtics owned Scott's NBA rights.
Scott spent three seasons with the Suns before being traded to the Boston Celtics for Paul Westphal in 1975. Scott played a key role for Boston's 1976 NBA championship team. His Hall of Fame selection is well deserved based on his outstanding amateur career in college/the Olympics, plus his high performance level as a pro in the ABA and NBA.

Rod Thorn was selected to the Hall of Fame as a Contributor after a long and successful basketball career during which he filled many roles, including player, coach, executive and league administrator. Thorn was an All-America performer at West Virginia before being selected second overall by the Baltimore Bullets in the 1963 NBA draft. He had a solid NBA playing career before becoming an assistant coach on Kevin Loughery's staff with the ABA's New York Nets, who won the 1974 ABA title largely thanks to Erving's spectacular all-around play. Thorn later became the Chicago Bulls' General Manager. He drafted Michael Jordan in 1984. From 1986-2000, Thorn served as the NBA's Executive Vice President of Operations. Thorn rejoined the Nets in 2000 and was selected as the NBA's Executive of the Year in 2002 after building the team into a championship contender.

Labels: Basketball Hall of Fame, Charlie Scott, Dino Radja, Gran Hill, Jason Kidd, Katie Smith, Lefty Driesell, Maurice Cheeks, Ora Mae Washington, Ray Allen, Rick Welts, Rod Thorn, Steve Nash, Tina Thompson

posted by David Friedman @ 1:24 PM

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Placing Kevin Garnett's Career in Proper Context is Complicated

Kevin Garnett recently announced his retirement, ending a 21 season career that was highlighted by one NBA championship (Boston, 2008), one regular season MVP award (2004), one Defensive Player of the Year award (2008), four rebounding titles (2004-07) and nine All-Defensive First Team selections. Garnett will be a first ballot Hall of Famer, albeit one who will be overshadowed by two other first ballot Hall of Famers in his class (Kobe Bryant and Tim Duncan).

Garnett's impact extended beyond the court, because he directly or indirectly influenced changes in how the business of basketball operates. He entered the NBA in 1995 as a 19 year old known as "The Kid" and "The Big Ticket." He was the first basketball player to make the preps to pros jump since Darryl Dawkins in 1975 and the first to become an All-Star after doing so since Moses Malone, who jumped from high school straight to the ABA in 1974 and eventually became a three-time NBA MVP. In contrast, Dawkins enjoyed a 14 year NBA career but he never made the All-Star team.

Garnett's successful NBA debut paved the way for Kobe Bryant, LeBron James and several other future Hall of Famers to jump straight to the NBA from high school--but the failures of many other high school players who attempted the same feat (and shall remain nameless here) ultimately led to the NBA instituting a rule preventing teams from drafting or signing players who had just finished high school. After Garnett emerged as an All-Star in 1998, he signed a then mind boggling six year, $126 million contract extension that precipitated the 1999 lockout as owners scrambled to change the rules regarding rookie contracts and maximum contract size. Garnett's huge deal was grandfathered in, though, and is a major reason that Garnett has the highest career earnings of any player in NBA history.

Despite Garnett's fat bank account, no credible analyst would propose that he is one of the top 10 players of all-time or even one of the top 20 players of all-time; even his staunchest supporters would hesitate to rank him higher than somewhere between 21-30 among the best of the best.

However, the "stat gurus" always loved Garnett and one of the major themes repeated by many of the "stat gurus" when "advanced basketball statistics" were first gaining attention was that Garnett's value was not fully appreciated by old school talent evaluators but was only captured by proper numbers crunching. I found the whole spectacle ridiculous for a variety of reasons: (1) Garnett achieved fame, wealth and awards long before most people had any idea that "advanced basketball statistics" existed, so he was hardly underrated or ignored by conventional player evaluation methods; (2) many of the statistical systems that supposedly proved Garnett's efficiency had serious flaws; (3) the underlying premise that Garnett was the best player in the league ("stat guru" Dave Berri tapped Garnett for that honor not once, not twice but four years in a row!) is demonstrably false. In fact, the insistence by so many "stat gurus" that Garnett was underrated when he clearly was not underrated was one of the first warning signs to me that many "stat gurus" were not pursuing truth but rather creating story lines that would justify them being hired by ESPN or by NBA front offices (and this plan worked out very well for the "stat gurus," even if it made ESPN's NBA coverage--in both TV and print formats--unbearable at times and even if it made teams like the Philadelphia 76ers deplorable and unwatchable).

Addressing the first point, no one needed to crunch numbers on a fancy spreadsheet to figure out that Garnett was a very good player; the eye test showed that he was a mobile seven footer who scored, rebounded, passed, blocked shots and accumulated steals. He set solid (and, arguably, illegal) screens, he could guard multiple positions and he was durable. Those reasons explain why Garnett was able to go straight from high school to the NBA and quickly become the highest paid player ever while receiving All-Star selections and other honors. It is absurd to suggest that no one understood Garnett's worth until Dave Berri and other "stat gurus" showed up.

Regarding the second point, I have always insisted that if we are going to buy the premise that a given player is the best in the league because statistical system "X" says so then we also have to buy the premise that the other conclusions of statistical system "X" are valid, because the same methodology informs those conclusions. For example, let's take Value Over Replacement Player (VORP). According to that metric, in the past 20 years LeBron James has been the best player in the NBA eight times. Maybe you buy that premise, maybe you don't, but let's dig deeper. The other multiple leaders since 1996-97 are Kevin Garnett (three times) and Stephen Curry (twice). VORP tapped Shaquille O'Neal as the best player once and it never placed Kobe Bryant higher than third (VORP only placed Bryant in the top five in the NBA three times during his entire career). Tim Duncan also was only listed as the best player once. Maybe you are still on board with VORP, so try this on for size: VORP ranked Steve Francis as the best player in the NBA in 2000-01. If you still take VORP seriously, I don't think that I can help you understand basketball (or anything else). According to VORP, Tim Duncan was the best player in the NBA in 2001-02 and Kevin Garnett was the second best player. I disagree with that but maybe you don't think those particular rankings are outlandish, so please note that  in 2001-02 VORP ranked Brent Barry as the fourth best player in the NBA (O'Neal was eighth and Bryant 12th as they somehow defied "advanced basketball statistics" to lead the L.A. Lakers to a third straight championship).

So, if you are using VORP (or Berri's statistical gibberish, which produced similarly bizarre results) to support the idea that Garnett should have won three MVPs, then you are also co-signing on Francis winning one MVP and Brent Barry being an All-NBA First Team caliber player in 2001-02. This kind of nonsense explains why I spent so much time decrying "stat gurus" and "advanced basketball statistics" during the early years of 20 Second Timeout (with age I have come to realize that it is difficult to turn fools away from foolishness, particularly if the fools can make money by propounding said foolishness).

As for the third point, I don't believe that Garnett was ever the best player in the NBA; Berri and VORP are way off base by suggesting that he should have won multiple MVPs and even the official MVP voters lost the thread a bit in 2004 when they were so excited about the possibility of Garnett finally winning a playoff series that they gave him the MVP. The best thing that Garnett did in the 2003-04 season is stay healthy; he played in all 82 games, while Bryant, Duncan and O'Neal each missed at least 13 games. If the MVP voters used durability as the tiebreaker when choosing Garnett I can accept that but I am not buying that Garnett deserved the MVP because VORP and Berri said so.

Garnett was certainly a viable MVP candidate in 2004 but Duncan--already a two-time NBA champion--essentially posted the same numbers in 2004 that he did in 2003 when he won the second of his back to back MVPs. The San Antonio Spurs went 51-18 when Duncan played but just 6-7 in the games that he missed, which kind of suggests that Duncan was rather valuable. Similarly, the Lakers went 48-17 with Bryant and just 8-9 without him. The Lakers posted a 15-4 record when Bryant scored at least 30 points.

Garnett paid a lot of attention to his individual numbers, particularly during the first half of his career. During his prime, Garnett bragged that he produced "20-10-5" (averages of at least 20 ppg, 10 rpg and 5 apg) on a yearly basis. While that was true from 2000-2005, it is also true that his Minnesota Timberwolves went 5-13 in the playoffs during the first four of those seasons, never making it out of the first round. After adding two-time NBA champion Sam Cassell and 1999 NBA Finalist Latrell Sprewell to the roster, Minnesota advanced to the 2004 Western Conference Finals before losing in six games to the Lakers, who somehow overcame the non-MVP caliber VORP numbers of Bryant and O'Neal. Garnett's Timberwolves then missed the playoffs each of the next three seasons.

After the first of Garnett's six straight 20-10-5 seasons, Minnesota lost 3-1 to Portland in the first round of the 2000 playoffs. Scottie Pippen, in the twilight of his career at 34 years old, averaged 18.8 ppg, 7.0 rpg and 4.3 apg for Portland in the series. He shot just .419 from the field but he shot .421 from three point range and nearly a third of his field goal attempts were from beyond the arc, so his shooting was actually rather efficient overall. Pippen led Portland in scoring and rebounding during the series, while ranking second in assists. Garnett averaged 18.8 ppg, 10.8 rpg and 8.8 apg but he shot just .385 from the field, without the benefit of a lot of made three pointers to offset all of his errant attempts. He led Minnesota in rebounding and assists while ranking second in scoring to Terrell Brandon, who averaged 19.5 ppg on .508 field goal shooting.

A few years later, Pippen--never one to mince words--made some pointed comments about Garnett: "He really set the tone for self-destruction. He's very productive but unproductive. He gets you all the stats you want, but at the end of the day his points don't have an impact on [winning] the game. He plays with a lot of energy and a lot of enthusiasm, but in the last five minutes of the game he ain't the same player as in the first five." Magic Johnson and Charles Barkley had both previously criticized Garnett for not having a go-to scoring move in the post and for not carrying enough of the scoring burden down the stretch in close games.

Here is my June 2007 take on Garnett just before he was traded to Boston:

Garnett has put up gaudy numbers during his career--20.5 ppg, 11.4 rpg, 4.5 apg--but it could be argued that he has less impact on winning and losing then perhaps any other player who has ever won an MVP. Go through the list of MVP winners and try to find another one whose teams missed the playoffs for three straight years while he was healthy and in his prime. Garnett once boasted in a TV ad about how he puts up "20, 10 and 5" (referring to ppg, rpg and apg) year in and year out but one wonders if achieving those stats means more to him than putting up 50 (regular season wins) and 16 (the number of playoff wins it takes to win a championship). Tim Duncan seems utterly unconcerned with attaining certain specific individual statistical totals; he does whatever his team needs him to do to win on a given night.

The arrival of Julius Erving in Philadelphia turned the 76ers into instant, perennial championship contenders and he stuck it out with the franchise until they finally won a title. Isiah Thomas joined a 16 win Detroit team and transformed them into back to back champions a few years later during an era when the NBA was dominated by Magic Johnson, Larry Bird and Michael Jordan. Jordan joined a bad Chicago team and eventually led the Bulls to the top of the heap. Garnett strung together a bunch of first round losses, made it to the Conference Finals once and then wanted to flee Minnesota after missing the playoffs for three years in a row.

The trade to Boston was perfect for Garnett, for it teamed him up with two future Hall of Famers (Paul Pierce and Ray Allen) who were more than happy to do the clutch scoring down the stretch of close games. The Celtics also had a deep roster surrounding their All-Star trio, including a young point guard in Rajon Rondo who was the best player on the court at crucial times during the 2008 championship run.

The Celtics rolled to a 66-16 regular season record in 2007-08 and Garnett finished third in the regular season MVP voting. I would argue that this was perhaps the best season of his career even though he did not come close to 20-10-5, because Garnett was entirely focused on winning a championship, as opposed to putting up gaudy individual numbers to convince critics that it was not his fault that his team was losing. It is worth remembering, though, that Pierce--not Garnett--won the Finals MVP as the Celtics defeated Bryant's Lakers in six games.

Boston made it back to the Finals in 2009 but Bryant won the Finals MVP as his Lakers triumphed in seven games. Garnett battled injuries and declining skills during the rest of his career, making stops in Brooklyn and then Minnesota again before finally deciding to retire.

Duncan was without question the best power forward of this (or any) era. He averaged 19.0 ppg, 10.8 rpg, 3.0 apg and 2.2 bpg during his regular season career, increasing those numbers to 20.6 ppg, 11.4 rpg, 3.0 apg and 2.3 bpg during the playoffs. Garnett averaged 17.8 ppg, 10.0 rpg, 3.7 apg and 1.4 bpg during the regular season and 18.2 ppg, 10.7 rpg, 3.3 apg and 1.3 bpg during the playoffs. The numbers look comparable, though Duncan enjoys at least a slight edge across the board except for assists. However, Duncan had a much greater impact; he anchored the Spurs in the paint at both ends of the court, while Garnett far too often drifted away from the paint. Garnett had much more jumping ability than Duncan, yet Duncan blocked more shots. It is not a coincidence that Duncan won five championships and contended for titles throughout his career while Garnett won one championship and went through long stretches during which he did not contend for titles.

Garnett made the All-NBA First Team four times. Bryant and Karl Malone hold the record with 11 All-NBA First Team selections each. Duncan made the All-NBA First Team 10 times, matching Bob Cousy, Bob Pettit, Elgin Baylor, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Michael Jordan and LeBron James. Players with nine All-NBA First Team selections include Oscar Robertson, Magic Johnson and Larry Bird (Julius Erving made the All-ABA First Team four times and the All-NBA First Team five times for a total of nine First Team selections).

Garnett's nine All-Defensive First Team selections are tied for first all-time with Jordan, Bryant and Gary Payton. Garnett's Defensive Player of the Year award in 2008 was well deserved, as his work at that end of the court played a major role in turning Boston into a dominant defensive team.

Much is made about Garnett's trash talking and toughness but I was never much impressed by either quality with Garnett. While I prefer athletes with a quiet demeanor like Erving, Duncan and Bjorn Borg, I have also rooted for and appreciated flamboyant performers such as Muhammad Ali, Reggie Jackson and Deion Sanders; I don't mind if you talk and strut if you back up the words and swagger by winning championships. Garnett spent more than 20 years running his mouth and he has exactly one championship to show for all of that noise--and he was not the best player on the court during that championship series. Ali, Jackson and Sanders were at their best when they faced the best. Regarding toughness, I don't remember Garnett confronting Charles Oakley or other real tough guys; when I picture Garnett yapping I picture him screaming at guys half his size and/or half his ability. OK, he tapped Duncan on the head once--and Duncan looked at Garnett like Garnett was crazy. Garnett did not intimidate Duncan and Garnett seemed far from enthusiastic about tapping anyone on the head who might have remotely considered responding in kind.

In his prime, Garnett was a first rate rebounder and defender. He scored and passed well, though not well enough to carry a team very far without substantial help. Garnett was a great player but he was never the NBA's best player. I think that the criticisms that Pippen, Magic and Barkley made about Garnett during Garnett's Minnesota days were valid and I don't think that the Boston championship refuted those criticisms; that championship proved that Garnett was willing and able to reduce his role to fit in on a title team (and he deserves credit for doing that) but it did not prove that Garnett was at the same level as his contemporaries O'Neal, Duncan, Bryant and James, players who performed at an individually dominant level during multiple championship runs.

Perhaps this article may come across as more negative than it is intended to be but I am simply trying to place Garnett's career in proper context, which is not easy to do after years of media rhapsodizing and reams of "analysis" that supposedly proved that Garnett was perennially the NBA's best player when O'Neal, Duncan and Bryant were all in the primes of their careers. It is not necessarily Garnett's fault that his value was overstated at times but as an analyst/commentator I feel duty bound to correct the record as the books close on a great--but not Pantheon level--career.

Labels: Boston Celtics, Kevin Garnett, Latrell Sprewell, Minnesota Timberwolves, Paul Pierce, Ray Allen, Sam Cassell

posted by David Friedman @ 7:25 AM

9 comments

Ray Allen's Interests and Contributions Extend Far Beyond the Basketball Court

Ray Allen is renowned for his three point shooting prowess and he will long be remembered for the clutch three pointer that enabled the Miami Heat to push the 2013 NBA Finals to seven games en route to capturing their second consecutive championship--but he is a lot more than just a guy who scores prolifically from long distance: Allen is a well-rounded person who continually strives to educate himself and educate those around him. He has made it an annual personal tradition to visit the U.S. Holocaust Museum in Washington, D.C., bringing along teammates, team personnel and others. In a 2010 interview conducted by Aleisa Fishman, Allen explained why he first went to the U.S. Holocaust Museum and why he continues to do so:

My first visit to the Holocaust Museum, I had just gotten to the NBA. And I heard about it. I've always been, you know, a guy that's gone to museums. My coach in college was very much into taking us places and teaching us things while we traveled throughout the course of the season. And so, I just picked up that. When I traveled, I always went to places, cities. I'd try to figure out what different cities had to offer. And I just remember the first time I went there, it being so profound. And it's a lesson for everybody. That's something that stayed true to me. And I've been four or five times. And every time I go, I see something different. And when I come back, I always take somebody different.

I brought a friend of mine and he was an older black gentleman. And he, you know, he walked through and he had so many questions, and he couldn't believe that some of the things that he saw had taken place. And after we got done, we walked out and the first thing he questioned was, "What about slavery?" He was an older gentleman but, you know, it kind of made him angry, because he wanted to see something like that about the plight of the black people in America, about slavery. And I told him…I said, "This is about slavery." This is about people being enslaved and people being annihilated. And this is a lesson, so slavery doesn't happen anymore, so people don't believe that they're better than the next person. This is all about slavery. It just so happens to be spoken through the words of the Jewish people in the Holocaust, people who the Nazis tried to annihilate.

You take any person through the Museum, based on their experiences and their life, they're going to see different things. And they're going to talk about the things they want to talk about. But I think the most important thing is communication. That's a powerful, powerful tool, just talking about it and trying to understand it, and learn from it, and grow.

Allen is also playing an integral role in the NBA's celebration of Black History Month; he helped to design a shooting shirt that the Heat will wear during selected games in February. The shooting shirt features images of Frederick Douglass, Harriet Tubman, Bill Russell and Dr. Martin Luther King Jr.. Allen explained, "It's another celebration that we can improve on to try to create greater awareness, talking about where we've come as a people, as a league and as a country. It's an opportunity to talk about a great leader of the past, but even Martin Luther King, what he fought for was civil liberties not just for black people, but for all people. So to me, Black History Month has always been about equality of all people."

He added, "It's not just about the black players in the league. It's about where we've come, what we've fought for, equality amongst all races, ethnicities, cultures and groups."

Labels: Bill Russell, Dr. Martin Luther King, Frederick Douglass, Harriet Tubman, Holocaust Museum, Miami Heat, NBA, Ray Allen

posted by David Friedman @ 6:29 PM

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Heat Force Seventh Game After Spurs Squander Late Fourth Quarter Lead

"Our world's out of order. All I see is missed opportunity."--Hall & Oates, "Missed Opportunity"

The San Antonio Spurs are renowned for their crisp execution and praised for their championship pedigree but in game six of the NBA Finals they squandered a golden opportunity to win the fifth championship of the Tim Duncan era--and now the Miami Heat are one victory away from claiming the second championship of the Big Three era. The Spurs led 94-89 with :28 left in regulation after Manu Ginobili split a pair of free throws, a time/score situation that simply requires making free throws, not giving the opposing team extra possessions via turnovers/offensive rebounds and not giving up open three pointers; if the Spurs had executed those basic fundamentals for less than 30 seconds then they would have won the 2013 NBA championship. Instead, the Spurs gave up an offensive rebound that led to a LeBron James three pointer, Kawhi Leonard split a pair of free throws, the Spurs gave up an offensive rebound that led to a Ray Allen three pointer and the game went to overtime after Tony Parker missed a tough, low percentage fadeaway jumper as time expired in regulation. The Spurs scored first in overtime and eventually took a three point lead but then they missed three straight shots and suffered a shot clock violation; the Heat finished the game with a 6-0 run and emerged with a 103-100 win. Game to game momentum has been non-existent in this series as the teams have alternated victories but this is a devastating loss for the Spurs and the last time a road team won game seven of the NBA Finals Jimmy Carter was President (Washington 105, Seattle 98 in 1978), so on Thursday the Spurs will face a daunting task.

LeBron James authored yet another Finals performance that will baffle both his critics and his admirers; he scored 14 points on 3-12 field goal shooting in the first three quarters and he seemed to be on pace for one of the worst performances by a reigning MVP in a possible elimination game--but then he took over the game in the fourth quarter, scoring 16 points on 7-11 field goal shooting as the Heat rallied from a 75-65 deficit. James finished with 32 points, 11 assists, 10 rebounds and three steals while shooting 11-26 from the field. He is just the fourth player in NBA Finals history to post a 30-10-10 triple double, joining Jerry West, James Worthy and Charles Barkley. Without James' poor shooting and tentative play in the first three quarters the Heat probably would not have trailed by as many as 13 points but without his forceful, determined and skillful play in the fourth quarter the Heat would not have been able to come back. So what should we make of James? He is a tremendously talented player who has had many great playoff performances, who sometimes becomes passive in the biggest games and who learned last year how to snap out of that passivity to reassert the aggressiveness that makes him unstoppable; no player and no defensive scheme can stop James when he attacks the hoop with force--period. Anyone who thinks that James did not quit versus Dallas during the 2011 NBA Finals and versus Boston in the 2010 NBA playoffs should watch the fourth quarter of game six of the 2013 NBA Finals: that is what LeBron James looks like when he is playing hard, when he is fully engaged mentally, physically and emotionally--and that kind of effort (not necessarily those numbers but that energy level, that kind of relentless determination to attack the defense) should be expected of James all the time, because that is what Michael Jordan and Kobe Bryant--the two wing players who led teams to multiple championships in the past 20 years--delivered. If LeBron James wants to be mentioned in the same breath with those players then that is the standard--not statistics, not awards but rather a consistently high effort level that uplifts his teammates and deflates the opposing team. Prior to the game, NBA TV's Greg Anthony said, "Everyone says how well they are defending LeBron. LeBron is defending LeBron." Does anyone really believe that Boris Diaw can stay in front of LeBron James? Does anyone really believe that any of the Spurs' wing players can guard LeBron James in the post? The Spurs' defensive scheme is to concede two point jump shots to James and hope that James either misses those shots or refuses to even take those shots; there is no plan to stop James when he drives to the basket with a full head of steam and looks to score instead of looking to pass: James did that for the whole fourth quarter and there was nothing that the Spurs could do to slow him down. If James does that in game seven then the Heat will win--and if he had done that more often in the first five games then this series would already have been over.

For a half, it looked like Tim Duncan was the player who was going to deliver a legendary performance; in the first 24 minutes he produced 25 points (a personal high for a half in a Finals game) on 11-13 field goal shooting and he grabbed eight rebounds as the Spurs took a 50-44 lead. Could the 37 year old Duncan really produce a 40-20 game to clinch his fifth title? The predictable answer to that question was, "No"; he finished with 30 points and 17 rebounds and did not score after the third quarter--but Anthony correctly noted that a 30-17 stat line is more than the Spurs could have reasonably expected from Duncan and the Spurs needed to receive more production from Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili. Parker scored 19 points and passed for eight assists but he shot just 6-23 from the field. Ginobili had nine points, four rebounds, three assists, a career-high eight turnovers and a mind-boggling -21 plus/minus rating, by far the worst of any player in this game.

Miami Coach Erik Spoelstra took a page out of Phil Jackson's book; when Jackson coached the Lakers against the Spurs he preferred to single cover Duncan and blanket San Antonio's perimeter players, figuring that Duncan would not score 40 or 50 points and that the Spurs could not win without getting huge production from their three point shooters. Duncan put up great numbers in game six against single coverage but the Spurs shot just 5-18 from three point range (.278). Danny Green--whose record-setting three point shooting in the first five games generated some Finals MVP consideration--scored three points on 1-7 field goal shooting, including 1-5 from three point range.

Meanwhile, the Heat shot 11-19 from behind the arc (.579), with Mario Chalmers leading the way (20 points, 4-5 three point shooting). Dwyane Wade had a quiet game (14 points on 6-15 field goal shooting, four rebounds, four assists) and he was on the bench when the Heat made their fourth quarter run. Chris Bosh had solid numbers (10 points, 11 rebounds, three steals, two blocked shots) but he had an impact far greater than those statistics suggest; his defensive versatility played a huge role as Miami outscored San Antonio 30-20 in the fourth quarter, he collected the offensive rebound that led to Allen's game-tying three pointer and he blocked Green's three point attempt as time expired in overtime. Allen finished with nine points on 3-8 field goal shooting but he scored seven crucial points late in the game: in addition to the huge three pointer at the end of regulation, he converted a drive to cut San Antonio's lead to 100-99 and he made two clutch free throws to put Miami up 103-100 with 1.9 seconds left in overtime.

The Spurs have to be very careful to make sure that game seven does not get out of hand, because it is easy to picture a scenario in which James runs wild (literally and figuratively), Chalmers hits some three pointers and the Heat cruise to victory; the Heat have played two game sevens in the Big Three era and they won both by double digits (99-76 versus Indiana in 2013, 101-88 versus Boston in 2012). On the other hand, if James plays like he did in the first three quarters of game six and the Spurs execute at their normal efficiency level then the Spurs could put themselves in position to transform their game six collapse from a huge missed opportunity into a historical footnote.

Labels: Chris Bosh, Danny Green, Dwyane Wade, LeBron James, Manu Ginobili, Miami Heat, Ray Allen, San Antonio Spurs, Tim Duncan, Tony Parker

posted by David Friedman @ 6:28 AM

17 comments

Miami's Energetic Big Three Wears Down Boston's Old Big Three

In the famous "Rumble in the Jungle" fight, Muhammad Ali leaned against the ropes and absorbed body shots from George Foreman for several rounds before asking Foreman, "Is that all you got?" Ali took Foreman's heart with those words and soon after that he knocked Foreman out to regain the World Heavyweight Boxing Championship. The Boston Celtics wore themselves out landing body blows on the Miami Heat in game seven of the Eastern Conference Finals--leading by as many as 11 points, maintaining a seven point halftime edge and staying in front as late as the eight minute mark of the fourth quarter--before the Heat figuratively asked, "Is that all you got?" and closed the game out with a 20-6 run to earn their second consecutive trip to the NBA Finals. In the "Rumble in the Jungle" the wily former champion outlasted the young, inexperienced champion but in the Boston-Miami matchup we saw the young challenger outlast a wily former champion seeking one final shot at the title. Miami fans who think that their team will have many chances to win a championship should keep in mind that in five years together Boston's Big Three plus Rajon Rondo quartet made it to the NBA Finals twice and won one championship; injuries, the rise of new contenders and other factors affect how many chances a team gets to win a title--and even a team with multiple future Hall of Famers is not immune to those challenges and twists of fate.

The Celtics executed the proper anti-Heat game plan for much of game seven, building a lead by limiting their turnovers, outscoring the Heat in the paint and preventing Miami from scoring in transition. Rondo authored his fourth triple double of this postseason and the 10th of his playoff career (22 points, 14 assists, 10 rebounds) and each member of Boston's Big Three scored in double figures--19 points for Paul Pierce, 15 points for Ray Allen, 14 points for Kevin Garnett--but Boston's bench supplied just two points, forcing Boston's old warriors to shoulder a load that they no longer can carry. The Big Three looked like a boxer who had punched himself to exhaustion or a race car with an overheated engine: their fourth quarter shots came up short, they could not find the energy to pursue rebounds or loose balls and their defensive rotations were late. The 26 year old Rondo will obviously be the cornerstone of Boston's rebuilding project, since it seems unlikely that the Celtics will bring back the Big Three as a group. This was Rondo's second game seven triple double of the 2012 playoffs, a remarkable feat considering that no other player in NBA history has more than one game seven triple double in his entire career (Russell Westbrook, Scottie Pippen, James Worthy, Larry Bird and Jerry West are the only other players who have had a game seven triple double).

The return of Chris Bosh to full minutes (31) and full productivity (19 points on 8-10 field goal shooting, eight rebounds) proved to be a decisive X factor in game seven; his timely shot making--including three three point field goals after shooting just 4-20 from behind the arc in his entire playoff career--not only provided crucial points but also spread Boston's defense thin, opening up driving lanes for LeBron James and Dwyane Wade. It is not a coincidence that the Heat are 7-2 in the 2012 playoffs with Bosh (including 2-1 versus Boston) and just 5-4 without him; foolish critics dubbed Miami's Big Three "Two and a Half Men"--not so subtly suggesting that Bosh is not nearly as important or productive as James and Wade--but intelligent basketball observers know that Bosh is hardly half a man from a basketball standpoint.

Wade got off to his customary slow start but finished with 23 points, six rebounds and six assists. Supposedly a knee injury is causing his inconsistent play but I have never heard of a knee injury that afflicts a player at the start of the game when he is loose and warmed up but then becomes better after the player sits around for 15 minutes at halftime; usually the concern with a knee injury is that the knee will become stiff if the player sits down for too long and/or that the injury will become aggravated the longer that he plays. I am not saying that Wade is not legitimately injured but just that it seems more likely that his inconsistent performances are being caused by something other than a knee injury.

The Celtics' legacy is set thanks to their 2008 championship, Wade's 2006 championship/Finals MVP means that he likely will never have to pay for a drink in Miami and few people perceive the playoffs as a referendum on Bosh's legacy; we all know that any elimination game for the Heat will be viewed and remembered first and foremost from the perspective of how it impacts James' legacy--at least until he wins a championship. James led the way with game-high totals in scoring (31 points) and rebounding (12). His shot was off (9-21 field goal shooting, .429) and he uncharacteristically only had two assists but for the most part he played the way he is supposed to play, the way that he should play all of the time: he attacked the basket instead of settling for jump shots or passively getting rid of the ball. James is a great passer blessed with exceptional court vision but--no matter how many times various people say it--he is not a pass first player and he is not the second coming of Magic Johnson; James is an incredible scoring machine and when he is on his game he is the 21st century Julius Erving, soaring to the hoop with one arm extended straight over his head for a devastating tomahawk dunk. The scoring and rebounding numbers that James is putting up during the Heat's 2012 playoff run are not Magic-like or Jordanesque but they are similar to the numbers Erving amassed in his ABA days, particularly when Erving led the Nets to the 1976 ABA title.

The big difference between Erving and James--other than the fact that Erving won two championships by the time he was 26 while James is still seeking his first championship at the age of 27--is that you never had to wonder which Erving would show up from game to game; Erving consistently attacked the hoop and he played with great energy at both ends of the court, while James needs to finish off this playoff run strongly and lead his team to a championship to make up for the fact that he blatantly quit during his previous two playoff campaigns (against Boston in 2010 and against Dallas in 2011). ESPN's Jeff Van Gundy said that there should be a two year statute of limitations on stupidity (referring to James' infamous Decision followed up by the Heat's ridiculous preseason celebration of the multiple championships they have yet to win) but while James can perhaps be forgiven for his poor public relations moves and ill advised comments about how "easy" it would be to "win multiple championships" the fact that the best player in the sport quit during the playoffs two years in a row should not be quickly forgiven or forgotten; James' great predecessors had bad games, made mistakes and experienced painful failures at times but no one ever had to wonder if they would try their hardest. James owes it to himself, to his teammates, to his great predecessors and to the sport itself to try his hardest during the 2012 NBA Finals; regardless of what stat lines James ultimately produces or which team eventually wins the title, there should never be a time in the NBA Finals when James is passively standing in the corner watching the game unfold: he must be constantly on the move, with or without the ball. That is not placing undue pressure on James; that is the level of expectation that goes along with being a three-time MVP. As ESPN's Magic Johnson and Chris Broussard noted during the pregame show, it is a compliment that James is expected to do so many wonderful things--and James should hope that the day never comes when people stop expecting him to be great.

Labels: Boston Celtics, Chris Bosh, Dwyane Wade, Kevin Garnett, LeBron James, Miami Heat, Paul Pierce, Rajon Rondo, Ray Allen

posted by David Friedman @ 1:43 AM

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Maybe LeBron James was Right about Winning "Not One" Championship

"I feel sorry for whoever gotta guard both of us."--Dwyane Wade, July 9, 2010 interview during the Miami Heat's preseason coronation

"We're going to challenge each other in practice. And the way we're going to challenge each other to get better in practice, once the game starts, I mean, it's going to be easy. I mean, with me and Dwyane Wade running a wing, Pat could come back and play like he was back in his Kentucky days. Just throw it up there, we're going to get it."--LeBron James, July 9, 2010 interview during the Miami Heat's preseason coronation

"Not two, not three, not four, not five, not six, not seven."--LeBron James, July 9, 2010 interview during the Miami Heat's preseason coronation

Unless LeBron James is planning on playing in the NBA until he is 50--and somehow convincing Commissioner David Stern to allow him to team up with the other four members of the All-NBA First Team--it does not seem likely that he will fulfill his pledge to win more than seven NBA championships. Boston's aging, infirm Big Three (plus young Rajon Rondo) defeated James' Miami Heat 94-90 in Miami in game five of the Eastern Conference Finals to take a 3-2 series lead. We keep hearing that the Celtics are about to break up their Big Three but, ironically, James' Heat may be one loss away from seeing their Big Three broken up; the Heat were considered in many circles to be overwhelming favorites to win the East--if not the NBA title--as one potential rival after another (including Chicago and Orlando) fell by the wayside due to injuries but now they have to win two games in a row to stave off elimination. If the Heat fail to make it to the NBA Finals, team President Pat Riley will justifiably have to wonder if it makes sense under the new Collective Bargaining Agreement to pay max dollars to LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh.

In Greek mythology it is called hubris: an overbearing pride or presumptuousness that precedes dramatic failure. In the NBA, it is called the Miami Heat--specifically, LeBron James and Dwyane Wade. Winning a championship in any sport at any level is never easy--and winning a championship at the highest level of a sport is particularly challenging. That is why Andrew Bynum sounded like such an idiot early this postseason when he declared that closeout games are "easy"; Shaquille O'Neal got it right on TNT recently when he said that closeout games are the toughest games. Bynum should know better but maybe it is easy for him to talk out of the side of his neck because his primary role during the Lakers' 2009 and 2010 championship runs was to put up Luc Longley numbers before sitting on the bench in the fourth quarter and watching Kobe Bryant go to work.

Wade should know better as well; even if he got things twisted in his mind during the 2006 NBA Finals when he faced single coverage while the Dallas Mavericks focused their defensive attention on Shaquille O'Neal, the ensuing four year postseason drought should have reminded Wade how challenging the championship chase really is: after Miami's 2006 championship season, Wade did not win another playoff series until he, James and Bosh teamed up last year. James and Wade talk and act like all they have to do is just stroll into any NBA arena and the players on the other team will bow down to them; that approach may work to some degree against inferior teams during the regular season but--as Magic Johnson has repeatedly noted--the Heat lack toughness and mental fortitude: when the going gets tough, James, Wade and company don't dig down deeper and fight harder. They just seem to lack the indefinable but essential character traits of champions--but James and Wade lack more than just those intangibles: they also appear to be incapable of executing a half court offensive set against elite defensive pressure, instead running what I call a "clown car" offense because it is about as organized and efficient as clowns piling out of a car at a circus. It is easy to blame Miami Coach Erik Spoelstra but James is the best player in the NBA and Wade is supposedly a top five player--yet James and Wade are repeatedly stymied when the opposing team uses a basic zone and challenges James and Wade to move without the ball and/or consistently make an outside shot. I seriously doubt that Coach Spoelstra is drawing up sets that involve no ball movement and that station James in the corner as a passive bystander; the Heat's problem is that James and Wade are so used to just overwhelming opponents with their athleticism that James and Wade do not consistently have a good counter to opponents who get back on defense, stay in front of them and are not intimidated.

Yes, I predicted that the Heat would beat the Celtics--and it is still possible that the Heat will win the series--but I also said that the Celtics could emerge victorious if Rajon Rondo is the best player on the court for an extended period of time, if the Celtics execute the correct anti-Heat game plan (limiting Miami's paint points and free throws through good shot selection, a low turnover rate and excellent transition defense) and if LeBron James quits. So far, Rondo has performed magnificently and the Celtics have executed their game plan reasonably well. It would not be fair or accurate to say that James has quit but, despite his gaudy statistics, James has not made an imprint down the stretch in the past three games as the Celtics grabbed control of the series. All of the overheated nonsense about clutch shots is irrelevant; what LeBron James should be doing is what Kobe Bryant did during the 2009 and 2010 postseasons and what Dirk Nowitzki did during the 2011 playoffs: controlling games down the stretch, a quality that may not be definable by a specific score/time remaining parameter but that is more significant than just making clutch shots.

When James played in Cleveland, he had the support of a fan base that enthusiastically cheered for him, unlike the late arriving Miami fans who sit on their hands for most of the game. If James had been willing to commit to the Cavaliers the way that Kevin Durant committed to Oklahoma City and the way that Derrick Rose committed to Chicago, the Cavaliers would have been perennial championship contenders (and if James had not quit during the 2010 playoffs then he likely would already have won at least one championship); I said it right after James left Cleveland and I'll say it again now: while it is possible that James will win a championship in Miami, it is also possible that after James retires we will look back on his career and say that the best all-around teams he played for were the 2007-2010 Cavaliers. James handpicked his destination and his teammates in the summer of 2010 yet all we keep hearing is how he supposedly does not have enough help. Whose fault is that? James could have stayed in Cleveland, played for a team that annually won well over 60 games and then recruited any number of players to bolster the roster--and he could have played for Mike Brown, a defensive-minded coach who took the depleted Lakers to the second round this season, matching what Phil Jackson did in a regular length season with a deeper roster.

If the Celtics defeat the Heat in this series, the media spin will focus more on "Heat lose" than "Celtics win" so it is important to give full credit to Doc Rivers--the brilliant Boston Coach who was repeatedly and foolishly criticized for years by supposed basketball expert Bill Simmons--and Boston's players, particularly Kevin Garnett, Rajon Rondo, Paul Pierce and Ray Allen. As ESPN's Jeff Van Gundy mentioned during the game five telecast, Boston's star players mesh together well because their strengths and weaknesses are complementary. This is a marked contrast with LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh, who arguably are the three most talented individual players in this series (when Bosh is fully healthy) but whose skill sets are not complementary: James and Wade are primarily isolation players, which relegates Bosh to a glorified Horace Grant role on the weak side despite his abundant skills as both a post player and a face up player. Even though James and Wade have yet to figure out how to fully utilize Bosh's skills, it is striking that the Heat's record is much better with Bosh (in both the regular season and the playoffs) than without him. While the Heat run the "clown car" offense and often loaf back on defense--a point that Van Gundy repeatedly emphasized during game five--the Celtics space the floor and maximize each player's talents on offense while also playing rugged, tenacious defense.

The Celtics are gritty and mentally tough; the Heat are, as Joakim Noah so memorably and aptly put it, "Hollywood as hell"--a team that values style over substance, a team that takes its cue from superstars who had a coronation party before they had even played a single game together and who used that occasion to brag about how the whole basketball world would have to bow down before them. What do you think Rivers, Garnett, Rondo, Pierce and Allen thought of that spectacle? I guarantee you that they were not impressed or intimidated by it.

Labels: Boston Celtics, Chris Bosh, Dwyane Wade, Kevin Garnett, LeBron James, Miami Heat, Paul Pierce, Rajon Rondo, Ray Allen

posted by David Friedman @ 4:54 AM

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Miami Versus Boston Preview

Eastern Conference Finals

#2 Miami (46-20) vs. #4 Boston (39-27)

Season series: Boston, 3-1

Boston can win if...the Celtics execute their half court offense efficiently, limit their turnovers and force LeBron James and Dwyane Wade to shoot contested jump shots instead of layups, dunks and free throws.

Miami will win because...the Heat's talented James/Wade duo (which resumes being a talented trio if Chris Bosh recovers from his abdominal injury and is able to return to action) will be too much for the aging and injured Celtics to handle.

Other things to consider: James and Wade both performed at a historically significant level of greatness in the second half of the series versus the Indiana Pacers as the Heat rallied from a 2-1 deficit to win three straight games. James' 40 point, 18 rebound, nine assist performance in game four has been matched in all three categories only one other time in NBA playoff history (Elgin Baylor rang up those exact same numbers in a 1961 playoff game). James averaged 30.0 ppg, 10.8 rpg and 6.2 apg versus the Pacers. Wade struggled early in the series but he scored 30, 28 and 41 points in the final three games; he averaged 26.2 ppg, 5.5 rpg and 3.3 apg overall during the series.

Those final three games represent the best that we have seen from James and Wade as a duo since they joined forces in 2010 but even though they deserve credit for executing under pressure it must be noted that the Pacers helped the Heat by committing what are called "unforced errors" in tennis jargon: the Pacers did not exploit their mismatch advantages in the paint on offense and their unforgivably sloppy ball handling not only wasted several potential scoring opportunities but also fueled Miami's deadly transition game. The main keys to beating the Heat are scoring inside in the half court set--thus slowing the game down and potentially getting the Heat into foul trouble--and minimizing the opportunities that James and Wade have to score easy points (layups, dunks, free throws). According to the data compiled at NBA.com/Stats, 51 of James' 139 field goal attempts versus the Pacers were from less than five feet away from the hoop. Not surprisingly, James converted 37 of those attempts (.725). James shot just 4-16 (.250) on his attempts from five to nine feet but that low percentage can probably be attributed to a small sample size. The significant statistics from a larger sample size show that he shot 16-33 (.485) from eight to 16 feet and 10-26 (.385) from 16-24 feet. James attempted 51 free throws versus the Pacers. Wade attempted 34 of his 123 shots versus the Pacers from closer than five feet and he made 24 of those shots (.706). Like James, Wade fared poorly on his small number of attempts from five to nine feet (7-16, .438). Wade shot 20-46 (.435) on his attempts from eight to 16 feet versus the Pacers and 9-28 (.321) from 16-24 feet. Wade attempted 53 free throws versus the Pacers. Obviously, keeping James and Wade out of the paint and off of the free throw line is easier said than done but the only way to beat the Heat is to focus consistently on proper shot selection and careful ball handling and then play disciplined half court defense. The team that beats Miami will stick to this game plan and will have athletes who are skilled enough to execute this game plan.

This may be the swan song for Boston's Big Three plus Rondo quartet (after Boston's 85-75 game seven victory over Philadelphia, Coach Doug Collins called them the "Championship Four"); Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce, Ray Allen and Rajon Rondo led Boston to the 2008 NBA Championship and the 2010 NBA Finals but the Celtics seem to be running on fumes now. Boston struggled to finish off a game but limited Philadelphia team that likely would have been first round fodder versus Chicago if Derrick Rose and Joakim Noah had not suffered injuries. The Celtics are a well coached, veteran squad that certainly will try very hard to execute the anti-Heat game plan mentioned above but the Celtics may not have enough young and/or healthy bodies to do so. Boston's 3-1 head to head regular season dominance against Miami is a bit misleading; not only is it difficult to compare regular season games from a truncated, post-lockout season to playoff games but both teams rested their key players in their final head to head meeting of the season (a 78-66 Boston win).

If Kevin Garnett not only performs at an All-Defensive First Team level but also averages 20 ppg while shooting above .500 from the field, if Ray Allen rediscovers his lost three point stroke, if Paul Pierce plays LeBron James to a draw (or reasonably close to it) in their head to head matchup and if Rajon Rondo dominates Miami's point guards then the Celtics can win this series. Rondo carried the Celtics down the stretch versus Philadelphia in game seven, finishing with 18 points, 10 assists, 10 rebounds and three steals--just the second game seven triple double in the storied history of the Celtics franchise (Larry Bird had 39 points, 12 rebounds and 10 assists versus New York in 1984). Rondo now has nine career playoff triple doubles, tying him with Wilt Chamberlain for fourth on the NBA's all-time list (Magic Johnson leads the way with 30, followed by Jason Kidd's 11 and Bird's 10).

The best chance for a Boston upset would be a combination of all of these factors:

1) Proper execution of the anti-Heat game plan.
2) Rondo goes nuts and is the best player on the court for significant stretches of time.
3) James quits.

The Celtics are disciplined enough mentally to stick with the right game plan but I question whether they are physically capable of getting the job done. We have seen the 6-1 Rondo go crazy in playoff games and he can even guard James on occasion; it is remarkable to see Rondo literally go nose to belly button with James but not back down for one second. Rondo outperformed James in key stretches of the 2008 Boston-Cleveland playoff series, so I would not be shocked if that happened again but I am not sure that it will happen for a long enough period of time to completely tilt the series in Boston's favor.

Whether or not James will quit is the ultimate X factor with this series; it would have been interesting to see how James would have reacted if the Pacers had played correctly in game four by pounding the ball inside offensively and keeping James and Wade out of the paint at the other end of the court: if Indiana had taken a 3-1 series lead then James and company might have folded up shop. If James plays hard versus the Celtics then the Heat should win.

Labels: Boston Celtics, Chris Bosh, Dwyane Wade, Kevin Garnett, LeBron James, Miami Heat, Paul Pierce, Rajon Rondo, Ray Allen

posted by David Friedman @ 1:03 AM

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Boston Versus Philadelphia Preview

Eastern Conference Second Round

#4 Boston (39-27) vs. #8 Philadelphia (35-31)

Season series: Philadelphia, 2-1 

Philadelphia can win if…the 76ers are able to limit their turnovers, force Boston to turn the ball over and then score in transition.

Boston will win because…the Celtics have three future Hall of Famers plus a top notch point guard who is probably their most valuable player now; the Celtics simply have too much talent and too much championship level experience to lose to an inexperienced team that lacks a true superstar and struggles to score in a half court set. Andre Iguodala and Lou Williams lead a nice cast of solid Philadelphia players but with Paul Pierce, Kevin Garnett, Ray Allen and Rajon Rondo the Celtics can use multiple options/looks both offensively and defensively.

Other things to consider: Derrick Rose's injury cleared the way for the 76ers to upset the Chicago Bulls in the first round but even with Rose--and then Joakim Noah--sidelined by injury Philadelphia hardly won convincingly. Doug Collins is an excellent coach who has squeezed the most out of his team but it is not realistic to think that the 76ers can defeat the Celtics in a seven game series unless the Celtics suffer a rash of injuries.

This series could feature some very ugly, low scoring games, particularly if the Celtics do not turn the ball over and thus force Philadelphia to execute against an entrenched defense; the 76ers have tremendous difficulty generating points in their half court offense, so they could easily sputter their way to some 10 point quarters and/or 30 point halves against Boston. 

The Celtics do not look like a championship caliber team but if they defeat Philadelphia, win one road game in the Eastern Conference Finals and defend their home court in that series versus Miami or Indiana then the "Big Three plus Rondo" could make one last trip to the NBA Finals.

Labels: Andre Iguodala, Boston Celtics, Kevin Garnett, Lou Williams, Paul Pierce, Philadelphia 76ers, Rajon Rondo, Ray Allen

posted by David Friedman @ 6:42 AM

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