20 Second Timeout

2026-27 Eastern Conference Preview

Last season, the New York Knicks won their first NBA title since 1973. The Knicks enjoyed a dominant 16-3 playoff run that included a 13 game winning streak, which is the second longest playoff winning streak in NBA history--but to earn a repeat championship they will have to navigate an Eastern Conference landscape that has been reshaped by significant trades and free agent signings.

After posting a 56-26 record to finish second in the Eastern Conference in what was expected to be a gap year, the Boston Celtics traded 2024 NBA Finals MVP Jaylen Brown to the Philadelphia 76ers for Paul George, two first round draft picks, and two second round draft picks. This trade represented the culmination of the Celtics' efforts to manage their high payroll while still trying to remain a strong playoff team. It is surprising that these two historic rivals made a trade with each other, particularly right after the 76ers recovered from a 3-1 deficit to beat the Celtics in the first round of the 2026 playoffs. The Celtics should not be any worse in the regular season with a healthy Tatum plus George than they were last season with Brown but without Tatum for most of the season, but the unanswered question is if the Celtics can go farther in the playoffs than they did last season.

The Brown acquisition paved the way for the 76ers to sign free agent LeBron James to a two year veteran minimum deal. The 76ers have not won a championship since Moses Malone and Julius Erving led the 76ers to the 1983 NBA title, and the 76ers have not reached the NBA Finals since 2001. James has spent most of his career building or joining "super teams," and he has won at least one championship with each of his previous teams--Miami (2012, 2013), Cleveland (2016), L.A. Lakers (2020)--but Joel Embiid has spent more than a decade not staying healthy and not advancing past the second round. 

The Cleveland Cavaliers reached the Eastern Conference Finals for the first time since LeBron James led the Cavaliers to four straight NBA Finals appearances from 2015-18. In the past four years, the Cavaliers lost in the first round, lost in the second round two years in a row, and then lost in the Eastern Conference Finals; on paper, the team seems to be on an upward trajectory, but relying heavily on James Harden will doom the Cavaliers to not advance past the Eastern Conference Finals--and to probably not even advancing that far again with him on the roster. Since he fled Oklahoma City in 2012, Harden's record in games when his team faced elimination is 5-14, and he played poorly in most of those games. When it matters most, Harden disappears, and that 14 year pattern is highly unlikely to change as his career winds down.

The Detroit Pistons posted the Eastern Conference's best record before losing 4-3 to the Cleveland Cavaliers in the second round. Coach J.B. Bickerstaff has lifted the Pistons from a 14-68 record under Monty Williams in 2023-24 to 44-38 in 2024-25 and 60-22 last season. This offseason, the Pistons parted ways with two of the top six players (based on mpg) in their rotation (Tobias Harris and Isaiah Stewart) along with Caris LeVert while adding John Collins, Isaiah Joe, and Taurean Prince. The Pistons are an elite defensive team, but they struggled to score during the playoffs, to the extent that they fell behind 3-1 in the first round before beating the Orlando Magic in seven games. The Pistons scored 105 points or less in each of the first four games of that series, and after surviving that scare they collapsed in game seven at home in the second round, losing 125-94 to the Cavaliers. It seems unlikely that the Pistons will win 60 games in the tough Eastern Conference, and it is not clear that their offseason moves made them a stronger postseason team. 

With Pat Riley at the helm, the Miami Heat have chased and acquired big stars for decades, from Alonzo Mourning to Tim Hardaway to Shaquille O'Neal to LeBron James to Chris Bosh to Jimmy Butler, resulting in three NBA titles (2006, 2012, 2013) plus four other NBA Finals appearances (2011, 2014, 2020, 2023). This offseason, the Heat acquired Giannis Antetokounmpo, a two-time regular season MVP (2019-20) who led the Milwaukee Bucks to the 2021 NBA title. The Heat now have a formidable frontcourt rotation featuring Antetokounmpo, Bam Adebayo, Bobby Portis (acquired from Milwaukee along with Antetokounmpo), and Andrew Wiggins. The Heat are relying on offseason acquisitions Klay Thompson and Tim Hardaway Jr. to provide reliable volume three point shooting.

Listed below are the eight teams that I expect to qualify for the Eastern Conference playoffs, ranked based on their likelihood of advancing to the NBA Finals:

1) New York Knicks: The Knicks joined a short list of teams who won a championship after replacing a very successful coach. Mike Brown guided the Knicks to their first NBA title since 1973 in his first season at the helm after the Knicks fired Tom Thibodeau, who had just led the team to the Eastern Conference Finals for the first time since 2000 while taking the Knicks to three straight playoff appearances for the first time since 2011-13.  

The Knicks only improved by two regular season wins under Brown--from 51-to 53--but they made a huge leap in defensive field goal percentage, jumping from 25th to fifth, and that carried over into the postseason; during the 2025 playoffs, the Knicks ranked eighth out of 16 teams in defensive field goal percentage, but in the 2026 playoffs the Knicks ranked third in defensive field goal percentage. The Knicks ranked first in field goal percentage in the 2026 playoffs after ranking fifth in field goal percentage in the 2025 playoffs. The Knicks' increased efficiency at both ends of the court translated into several blowout wins and several comebacks from significant deficits because the Knicks were able to both clamp down opposing offenses and go on hot shooting streaks.

Jalen Brunson has exceeded all reasonable expectations for what can be achieved by a 6-2 player who is not a high flyer and who is not exceptionally quick. What Brunson lacks in height, vertical leap, and explosiveness is more than compensated for with his savvy, footwork, clutch shotmaking, and toughness. During the regular season, he led the Knicks in scoring (26.0 ppg) and assists (6.8 apg) to earn his third straight selections as both an All-Star and as a member of the All-NBA Second Team. He did not receive a single regular season MVP vote after finishing 10th in 2024-25 and fifth in 2023-24. Brunson lifted his game in the playoffs, averaging 28.4 ppg and 6.1 apg overall, including 32.6 ppg and 4.6 apg in the NBA Finals to earn the Bill Russell NBA Finals MVP.

During the regular season, Karl Anthony-Towns averaged 20.1 ppg and 11.9 rpg (ranking second in the league for the second year in a row). His playoff numbers (15.9 ppg, 10.6 rpg, 4.9 apg, playoff career-high .551 FG%) only hint at his tremendous impact during the Knicks' championship run. After the Knicks fell behind 2-1 versus the Atlanta Hawks in the first round, Towns morphed into an elite playmaker, posting at least six assists in seven straight games as the Knicks won three in a row versus the Hawks before sweeping the Philadelphia 76ers, 4-0. Towns had triple doubles against the Hawks in game four (20 points, 10 rebounds, 10 assists) and in game six (12 points, 11 rebounds, 10 assists). Prior to that remarkable stretch, Towns' playoff career-high for assists had been five. Towns' playmaking put pressure on opposing defenses that were already stretched to the breaking point trying to contend with Brunson's herky jerky game and impeccable footwork in the paint. 

Other than losing valuable backup center Mitchell Robinson to the Boston Celtics, the Knicks kept their championship rotation intact; the chemistry that those players built during the playoff run will serve them well during any rough spots in the regular season and playoffs. 

2) Boston Celtics: Despite Jayson Tatum missing 66 games while recovering from a ruptured right Achilles and despite trading key rotation players Jrue Holiday and Kristaps Porzingis to save money to avoid the dreaded second apron, the Celtics posted the Eastern Conference's second best record (56-26). After Tatum returned late in the season, the Celtics looked poised to make a deep playoff run, but the Celtics' postseason ending abruptly when they lost three straight games after taking a 3-1 first round lead versus the Philadelphia 76ers. Tatum averaged 23.3 ppg, a team-high 10.7 rpg, and a team-high 6.8 apg in the first six games before missing game seven due to left knee stiffness. 

Instead of running it back with the Tatum-Brown duo leading the way, the Celtics shipped Brown to the 76ers for Paul George, a 36 year old swingman who played in just 37 games last season, with 25 of his missed games stemming from a suspension for violating the NBA's drug policy. He did not exactly set the world on fire when he played, averaging 17.3 ppg, 5.3 rpg, and 3.7 apg, falling to reach his career norms in all three categories. George is a nine-time All-Star, but he made the All-Star team just three times in the past seven seasons, with his last selection coming in 2024. The Celtics also signed free agent center Mitchell Robinson, a move that bolstered their frontcourt while weakening the Knicks' frontcourt. Robinson provides physicality and rebounding, particularly on the offensive glass.

Losing Brown for George and Robinson is a net minus, but it is important to remember that the Celtics also "gained" Tatum. The Celtics are well-run and well-coached, so unless Tatum gets hurt again they should maintain their perch near the top of the Eastern Conference standings. The main concern for the Celtics is that they rely too heavily on high volume three point shooting, a high variance strategy that does not tend to correlate with championship success; the Celtics shot 13-49 (.265) from three point range in their game seven loss to the 76ers. Indiscriminate long range bombing only works when it is paired with elite defense and rebounding. When the Celtics won the 2024 NBA championship, they ranked second in the league in defensive field goal percentage, second in rebounding, and fifth in points allowed during the regular season in addition to ranking first in three point field goals made; during the 2024 playoffs, they ranked third in points allowed, third in rebounding and sixth in defensive field goal percentage. 

3) Philadelphia 76ers: If you squint while looking into a crystal ball, it is possible to see a world in which the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2027 NBA championship; in that world, Joel Embiid and LeBron James are both healthy enough to play in at least 60 regular season games plus a full slate of playoff games while not only scoring efficiently but also playing solid defense--and in that world, Jaylen Brown is one of the top three wings in the NBA, Tyrese Maxey is an All-NBA shooting guard, and the rotation players are willing to sacrifice offensively while playing strong defense.

However, in the real world, Joel Embiid has never advanced past the second round of the playoffs in his 12 season career (including missing two full seasons due to injuries), and he has played in 39 games or less in each of the past three seasons. He has played in at least 60 games in a season only four times. James is a remarkably durable player, but since playing in all 82 games in 2017-18 (his age 33 season) he has played at least 70 games in a season just twice in eight years while playing in 60 games or less five times. James has not received a vote in Defensive Player of the Year balloting since 2017, and he has not made the All-Defensive Team since 2014. Expecting Embiid and James to not only remain healthy but to play anything close to championship caliber defense is a major reach.

Maxey is the 76ers' best and most consistent player. He averaged a career-high 28.3 ppg last season with .462/.367/.892 shooting splits while also dishing for a career-high 6.6 apg. However, he ranks fourth on this squad in star power behind four-time regular season MVP/four-time NBA Finals MVP James, one-time regular season MVP Embiid, and one-time NBA Finals MVP Brown. It is almost certain that James will be the dominant ballhandler, meaning that he will decide when and how often everyone else gets to touch the ball. It will be interesting to see how this team navigates the potentially rough waters of creating offensive chemistry when the two biggest stars are likely to (1) miss a lot of games and (2) exert less than full effort defensively.

4) Cleveland Cavaliers: How meaningful is it that the Cavaliers reached the 2026 Eastern Conference Finals? As I noted in my 2020 assessment of Daryl Morey's legacy up to that point, the NBA's competitive balance means that over a long enough period of time most teams advance that far at least once:

How significant is it to reach the Conference Finals? Two teams advance that far each year in each conference, so if those appearances were evenly distributed over a 13 year period with 15 teams in each conference then each team would average 1.7 Conference Finals appearances. In the past 13 years, 10 Eastern Conference teams and 10 Western Conference teams made at least one Conference Finals appearance and six teams in each conference made at least two Conference Finals appearances.

On one hand, it is an accomplishment to reach the Conference Finals, which is the NBA's equivalent of the NCAA Final Four; on the other hand, the NBA is structured to promote parity, which is why so many teams reach the Conference Finals once only to rapidly fall off, with the 2019 Portland Trail Blazers and the 2021 Atlanta Hawks being two prime examples of teams that made fluky Conference Finals runs while being led by offense-first/defense-optional guards. The Cavaliers are more talented, deeper, and better defensively than those two squads, but it takes a lot for a team to overcome the negatives that James Harden brings in terms of team chemistry, defense, and playoff choking.

The Cavaliers' two main offseason moves were signing contract extensions for Donovan Mitchell and James Harden. Extending Mitchell is a no-brainer--he is the team's best player and he is in his prime. Extending Harden is questionable long term but not surprising; the Cavaliers have hitched their wagon to Harden, and they are going to ride that wagon until it reaches the finish line or until the wheels fall off. In my 2025-26 Eastern Conference Preview, I declared, "I don't trust the Cavaliers versus the Knicks in a best of seven series"--and that was before the Cavaliers traded Darius Garland for Harden, who subsequently added yet another line to his horrific elimination game resume by scoring 12 points on 2-8 field goal shooting while committing five turnovers as the Knicks routed the Cavaliers 130-93 to complete a 4-0 sweep in the 2026 Eastern Conference Finals. I can't picture any team winning a championship while relying on Harden as a key player, but maybe the Cavaliers will unlock hidden playoff greatness in Harden that Oklahoma City, Houston, Brooklyn, Philadelphia, and the L.A. Clippers could not find.

The Cavaliers also acquired Peyton Watson in a five team deal and then signed the 3 and D wing to a four year, $88 million deal. Watson's tall task is to make up for the defensive deficiencies of the Cavaliers' guards and wings. What Watson cannot do is make up for the Cavaliers' inexplicable softness in the paint despite having two highly touted big men (Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen). During the Eastern Conference Finals, the Knicks outrebounded the Cavaliers 46.0 rpg to 36.8 rpg and the Knicks outscored the Cavaliers in the paint by 12.5 ppg. Teams that get pushed around don't win championships.

The Cavaliers will win at least 50 regular season games, and they will almost certainly win their first round playoff series, but anything after that is a question mark as long as Harden is running the point. Harden's career record in the first round is 11-6, and his record in subsequent rounds is 6-11. That 17-17 playoff series record overall includes a 5-3 mark when he was Oklahoma City's third option behind Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook, so Harden's playoff series record as the number one option (or at least the primary ballhandler) is 12-14, including 3-9 after the first round.

5) Detroit Pistons: Cade Cunningham has earned consecutive All-Star selections and consecutive All-NBA Team selections, including his first All-NBA First Team honor last season. He is an elite scorer and playmaker, and he rebounds well for a point guard. At just 25 years old, the five year veteran has likely not yet reached his peak. Cunningham's main weakness is that he can be sloppy with the ball; he has averaged 5.6 tpg in 20 career playoff games. The Pistons need to acquire or develop a competent secondary ballhandler to take some of the pressure off of Cunningham.

Jalen Duren had a breakout regular season, averaging a career-high 19.5 ppg to earn his first All-Star selection and his first All-NBA selection (Third Team) but in the playoffs he went from breakout to broken down, averaging just 10.2 ppg. Duren and the Pistons spent most of the offseason in a standoff regarding the length and amount of his contract extension before he finally signed a five year extension for $200 million, which is significantly less than the max deal for which he was eligible.

It might seem odd to say this about a young team that just finished with the best record in the Eastern Conference (60-22), but there are more questions than answers for the Pistons, and it does not seem likely that the Pistons will match last season's win total or advance past the second round of the playoffs.

6) Miami Heat: In a busy and productive offseason, the Heat acquired Giannis Antetokounmpo, Bobby Portis, Klay Thompson, and Tim Hardaway Jr. Antetokounmpo, Bam Adebayo, and Bobby Portis form one of the league's best big men trios, while Thompson and Hardaway Jr. provide much-needed perimeter shooting, and 2014 number one overall draft pick Andrew Wiggins is a consistent scorer who has averaged at least 13.4 ppg in each of his 12 NBA seasons.

The questions about the Heat revolve around the point guard position and overall depth. Antetokounmpo can be a playmaker in open court situations and even in some half court sets--as can Adebayo--but the Heat lack a veteran, dependable point guard who can run the offense.

Erik Spoelstra may be the NBA's best coach. He will make sure that this team plays good defense and plays offense as efficiently as possible, but until the Heat upgrade their point guard rotation and bolster their depth they will not be a championship contender. 

7) Toronto Raptors: Last season, the Raptors finished 46-36 while ranking seventh in field goal percentage and 10th in defensive field goal percentage. They pushed eventual Eastern Conference Finalist Cleveland to seven games in the first round. 

Scottie Barnes (18.1 ppg, 7.5 rpg, 5.9 apg) earned his second All-Star selection in the past three seasons while finishing fifth in Defensive Player of the Year voting and making the All-Defensive Second Team for the first time. Barnes was the best all-around player on a young team that could use some veteran leadership.

Enter Kawhi Leonard: this offseason, the Raptors shipped the oft-injured Brandon Ingram (21.5 ppg) and Gradey Dick to the L.A. Clippers for the oft-injured Leonard, who earned the second of his two NBA Finals MVPs after leading the Raptors to the 2019 NBA title, the first and only championship in franchise history. Leonard averaged a career-high 27.9 ppg in 64 games for the Clippers last season, and he emerged largely unscathed from the Clippers' salary cap circumvention debacle.

If Leonard stays healthy--a major "if" for a player who has participated in at least 65 regular season games just twice in the past nine seasons--then he and Barnes could be a formidable duo, but the more realistic scenario is that Leonard misses a lot of games and the Raptors end up with around the same number of wins that they had last season. Even if Leonard is healthy, the Raptors' lack of size will hurt them versus the better Eastern Conference teams that have All-Star big men--and it should be noted that Leonard has not advanced past the second round of the playoffs since 2019 (the Clippers reached the 2021 Western Conference Finals after Leonard suffered a season-ending injury in the second round).

8) Orlando Magic: The Magic fired coach Jamahl Mosley after losing in the first round for the third straight year. They replaced him with Sean Sweeney, who will make his NBA head coaching debut after serving as an NBA assistant coach for 13 seasons with five different teams. 

Under Mosley, the Magic played at a slow pace but were mediocre at best at both ends of the court; last season, the Magic ranked 13th in the league in points allowed, 15th in points scored, 19th in defensive field goal percentage, and 21st in field goal percentage. 

Paolo Banchero is the team's best player, but he has not progressed much since winning the 2023 Rookie of the Year award and earning his lone All-Star selection in 2024. Last season, he averaged 22.2 ppg, 8.4 rpg, and 5.2 apg, good numbers that are in line with his career averages (22.3 ppg, 7.4 rpg, 4.8 apg). He raises his game in the playoffs (27.4 ppg, 8.7 rpg, 4.9 apg in 19 career playoff games) but that has not been enough to win even one playoff series. Banchero is not an efficient scorer or an above average defensive player. 

When Banchero, Franz Wagner (20.6 ppg in 34 games last season), and Desmond Bane (20.1 ppg in a team-high 82 games last season) are healthy the Magic have a solid "big three" surrounded by a decent rotation that includes Jalen Suggs (13.8 ppg, team-high 5.5 apg last season), Anthony Black, and Wendell Carter Jr. A couple years ago, the Magic were viewed as a team on the rise, but after losing in the first round for three straight years while not making any significant roster upgrades the more realistic perspective is that this is a lower tier playoff team that is not a serious threat to the Eastern Conference's top teams.  

The teams that finish seventh through 10th in the regular season standings will participate in the Play-In Tournament. The above eight teams are the teams that I predict will qualify for the playoffs, regardless of what the final regular season standings are. 

The Indiana Pacers are a popular pick to be a sleeper team with the return of Tyrese Haliburton from a ruptured right Achilles, but the Pacers went 19-63 last season so they would need to add at least 20-25 wins to that total just to reach the Play-In Tournament. The Pacers are counting heavily on Ivica Zubac to replace the impact provided by Myles Turner during the team's 2025 playoff run to the NBA Finals. Even assuming that Haliburton will be as good as he was before the injury--which is far from certain for a perimeter player who relies on quickness and agility--it will be a tall task for the Pacers to jump from being the second worst team in the Eastern Conference to being a top eight team, let alone being a championship contender.

Last season, the Atlanta Hawks made the playoffs for the first time in three seasons, and they took a 2-1 first round lead versus the Knicks before losing three games in a row by double digit margins. The Knicks' 140-89 game six win indicated that the gap between an NBA championship team and the Hawks is quite large. In the offseason, the Hawks bolstered their backcourt by acquiring Lu Dort, Ryan Nembhard, and Aaron Wiggins, but that will not be enough to keep the Hawks in the top eight in a strong Eastern Conference.  

Jerry Krause infamously said "Organizations win championships," but since Krause broke up the "Last Dance" Bulls team after the 1998 championship season the Bulls have won just five playoff series in 27 seasons and they have not advanced past the first round since 2015; it takes four series wins to capture an NBA title, so the Bulls' (dis)organization has not accomplished much since chasing away Michael Jordan and company. I've lost count of how many five year plans the Bulls have started during that time, but they have once again restructured their front office and hired a new coach. As The Who song goes, "Meet the new boss, same as the old boss." Last season, the Bulls ranked 28th in points allowed and 22nd in defensive field goal percentage; they will have to significantly improve those rankings to make the playoffs.

The Milwaukee Bucks traded away franchise player Giannis Antetokounpo for several solid players, and that is just not a recipe for making the playoffs. Not surprisingly, no NBA team has performed better in the season after trading away a former regular season MVP. The Bucks missed the playoffs last season with Antetokounmpo, and they will miss the playoffs this season without him.

The Charlotte Hornets narrowly missed the playoffs last season, but instead of standing pat they did a significant roster makeover, capped off by trading dynamic point guard LaMelo Ball to the Minnesota Timberwolves for Naz Reid and draft picks. Perhaps the Hornets' management felt that the roster as constructed had peaked and thus change was necessary, but at least in the short run the Hornets look to be a worse team now than they were at the end of last season.

Washington Wizards' fans hope that Anthony Davis and Trae Young will lead the team to the playoffs for the first time since Russell Westbrook carried the team that should be known as the "Wheeze-hards" to the 2021 playoffs, but since 2020 Davis has missed the playoffs three times while advancing past the second round just once, while Trae Young has reached the playoffs three times in his eight season career. It would be a huge disappointment if the Wizards are not better than they were last season when they were losing on purpose, but it is unlikely that this team will make the playoffs.

Last season, the Brooklyn Nets ranked 30th (last) in the league in field goal percentage, defensive field goal percentage, and rebounding. Their biggest offseason move was acquiring Julius Randle from the Minnesota Timberwolves in a multi-team deal. Randle has a career scoring average of 19.1 ppg on .472 field goal shooting, so he may help the Nets escape the field goal percentage basement, but he is not going to significantly impact the team's defense or rebounding. The Nets had the third worst record in the Eastern Conference last season, narrowly edging out two teams (Indiana and Washington) that were not trying very hard to win. The NBA changed rules to remove the incentives for tanking, so with every team presumably trying to win the Nets could be the worst team in the Eastern Conference next season.

**********
Note:

I correctly picked six of the eight 2026 Eastern Conference playoff teams. Here are my statistics for previous seasons:

2025: 7/8
2024: 7/8
2023: 7/8
2022: 6/8
2021: 6/8
2020: 7/8
2019: 6/8
2018: 6/8
2017: 5/8
2016: 5/8
2015: 5/8
2014: 6/8
2013: 7/8
2012: 8/8
2011: 5/8
2010: 6/8
2009: 6/8
2008: 5/8
2007: 7/8
2006: 6/8

2006-2025 Total: 130/168 (.774)

Labels: Boston Celtics, Cleveland Cavaliers, Detroit Pistons, Miami Heat, New York Knicks, Orlando Magic, Philadelphia 76ers, Toronto Raptors

posted by David Friedman @ 11:17 PM

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Bob Pettit: One of the Greatest Basketball Players of All-Time

Bob Pettit--the NBA's first regular season MVP (1956) and the first pro basketball player to score 20,000 career points--has passed away at the age of 93. Pettit, George Mikan, Bob Cousy, and Bill Russell are the only players selected to all four of the NBA's all-time Anniversary Teams (25th in 1971, 35th in 1981, 50th in 1996, and 75th in 2021). Pettit, Paul Arizin, Jerry West, Julius Erving, and Yao Ming are the only players who earned an All-Star selection in every year of their professional careers. Erving tops that list with 16 All-Star selections, followed by West (14) and Pettit (11).

After an outstanding collegiate career at LSU during which he led the SEC in scoring in all three of his varsity seasons (25.5 ppg as a sophomore, 24.9 ppg as a junior, 31.4 ppg as a senior), Pettit earned the 1955 NBA Rookie of the Year award by averaging 20.4 ppg, 13.8 rpg, and 3.2 apg for the Milwaukee Hawks, a franchise that moved to St. Louis the following season. At that time (and until the 1969-70 season), NBA leaders were determined by totals, not averages; as a rookie, Pettit ranked fourth in scoring (1466 points) and third in rebounds (994), setting a high standard that he maintained throughout his career.

Pettit's first 10 NBA seasons stack up well with the first 10 seasons of any other player in pro basketball history: during that decade, he made the All-NBA First Team 10 straight times, won two regular season MVPs (1956, 1959) while finishing no lower than sixth in MVP voting nine times (the award did not exist during his rookie season), won two scoring titles (1956, 1959), won one rebounding title (1956), and led the St. Louis Hawks to one NBA championship (1958) in four NBA Finals appearances (1957-58, 1960-61). 

In Pettit's first 10 NBA seasons, he ranked no lower than fourth in scoring and no lower than fifth in rebounding--and in his 11th, final season he averaged 22.5 ppg and 12.4 rpg but did not make the leaderboard because he played in 50 out of 80 games after missing just 12 games in his first 10 seasons; the NBA season lasted 72 games in Pettit's first five seasons, 75 games in 1959-60, 79 games in 1960-61, and 80 games in his final four seasons. Pettit, Wilt Chamberlain, Jerry Lucas, and Nate Thurmond are the only players to average at least 20 ppg and at least 20 rpg in the same season. Pettit averaged 26.4 ppg (10th in pro basketball history) and 16.2 rpg (third in pro basketball history) in 792 career regular season games while averaging at least 20.4 ppg and at least 12.4 rpg in each of his 11 seasons. He averaged 25.5 ppg (22nd in pro basketball history) and 14.8 rpg (fourth in pro basketball history) in 88 career playoff games.

Pettit is one of just eight players who held first place on the NBA's career scoring list: the others are Joe Fulks, George Mikan, Ed Macauley, Dolph Schayes, Wilt Chamberlain, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, and LeBron James. Pettit is one of six players who won at least one NBA scoring title and at least one NBA rebounding title: the other five are Neil Johnston, Wilt Chamberlain, Elvin Hayes, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, and David Robinson. 

Pettit won a record four NBA All-Star Game MVPs (1956, 1958, 1959, 1962) at a time when NBA players took the All-Star Game seriously. Kobe Bryant (2002, 2007, 2009, 2011) is the only other player who won four NBA All-Star Game MVPs. 

Pettit had a full offensive skill set that enabled him to shoot, drive, score inside, and draw fouls. He ranks second in pro basketball history with 10.25 free throw attempts per game during his regular season career, trailing only Wilt Chamberlain (11.35)--but Chamberlain was often fouled intentionally because of his low free throw percentage, while Pettit was a solid free throw shooter (.761 career FT%, including a career-high .820 in his final season to rank seventh in the league that year).

Bill Russell's Boston Celtics dominated the NBA by winning 11 championships during Russell's 13 seasons, but one of Russell's two playoff series losses came at the hands of Pettit's Hawks. Pettit scored 50 points in game six of the 1958 NBA Finals as the Hawks edged the Celtics, 110-109. Pettit shot 19-34 (.559) from the field while collecting a game-high 19 rebounds. Pettit held the NBA Finals single game scoring record until Elgin Baylor scored 62 points (which is still the record) in game five of the 1962 NBA Finals, and Pettit is still tied for sixth (with Giannis Antetokounmpo) on the NBA Finals single game scoring list. Pettit's Hawks twice pushed Russell's Celtics to seven games in the NBA Finals (1957, 1960). Pettit averaged 28.4 ppg in his four NBA Finals appearances, which is the seventh highest NBA Finals career scoring average. Note that the NBA Finals MVP award did not exist during Pettit's career.

Pettit's career totals are impacted by the reality that during his era the financial incentives to extend one's NBA playing career did not exist; players from that era also did not have the benefit of the advanced medical technologies and training techniques that exist today, and they had a brutal playing schedule in terms of back to back games and travel conditions. However, Pettit's decade of dominance and his elite per game averages place him among the greatest pro basketball players of all-time. In 2011, the Sporting News put Pettit on its all-time NBA First Team alongside Magic Johnson, Michael Jordan, Larry Bird, and Bill Russell, and in my article about the Sporting News' choices I mentioned that I rank Pettit just outside of my 14 player Pantheon. I consider Pettit to be the second greatest power forward behind only Tim Duncan.

Labels: Bill Russell, Bob Cousy, Bob Pettit, Boston Celtics, Elgin Baylor, George Mikan, Jerry West, Milwaukee Hawks, Paul Arizin, St. Louis Hawks, Tim Duncan, Wilt Chamberlain, Yao Ming

posted by David Friedman @ 12:18 AM

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Don Nelson Lived a Full Basketball Life

Last Sunday, Don Nelson--who won five NBA titles as a player for the Boston Celtics before becoming one of the greatest coaches in NBA history--passed away at the age of 86. Nelson was a basketball innovator. He may not have originated the "point forward" concept, but during his tenure in Milwaukee he popularized it with players such as Marques Johnson and Paul Pressey. Pressey averaged 7.8 apg in 1985-86, setting a record for small forwards that stood until LeBron James averaged 8.6 apg in 2009-10. Nelson's teams often played "small ball," albeit out of necessity as much as by choice. Nelson tinkered with having his center shoot three pointers decades before teams widely adopted the practice of having big men operate behind the three point arc on offense. Nelson held the NBA record for regular season coaching wins from 2010-2022, surpassing Lenny Wilkens before being overtaken by Gregg Popovich, who served under him as an assistant coach during Nelson's first tenure in Golden State. Nelson earned the NBA Coach of the Year award in 1983, 1985, and 1992. Popovich and Pat Riley are the only other three-time winners of that award, though it should be noted that Larry Brown won the ABA Coach of the Year award three times before also winning the NBA Coach of the Year award once. In addition to his significant NBA coaching success, Nelson coached "Dream Team II" to the gold medal in the 1994 FIBA World Championship two years after the original Dream Team won the Olympic gold medal.

Nelson averaged 10.3 ppg and 4.9 rpg in his 14 season NBA playing career before leaving an indelible mark as a creative and shrewd coach. He spent his final 12 seasons for the Celtics after playing for the Chicago Zephyrs (which became the team now known as the Washington Wizards) as a rookie before doing a two year stint with the L.A. Lakers. Nelson never averaged 20 ppg or 10 rpg in a season, but he had some notable moments and achievements as a player, including hitting a shot just before the shot clock buzzer to give the Celtics a 105-102 lead over the Lakers with a little over a minute to go in game seven of the 1969 NBA Finals. Nelson's shot hit the back of the rim and bounced high in the air before nestling into the net, providing a cushion before the Celtics won 108-106 at L.A. to claim the 11th and final championship of the Bill Russell era. Nelson also ranked fourth in playoff scoring (11.4 ppg) for the 1974 NBA champion Celtics, and he led the NBA in field goal percentage (.539) in his second to last season (1974-75).

After Nelson retired in 1976, he started the next season with the Milwaukee Bucks as an assistant to Larry Costello before Costello resigned with a 3-15 record. Nelson became the head coach, and the Bucks went 27-37 the rest of the way. The Bucks missed the playoffs that season, advanced to the second round the next season, and then missed the playoffs again in 1979 before reaching the playoffs for eight straight years with Nelson at the helm. That run included seven straight Central Division titles (1980-86) and three Eastern Conference Finals appearances (1983-84, 1986). Nelson's Bucks never made it to the NBA Finals because either Larry Bird's Boston Celtics or Julius Erving's Philadelphia 76ers blocked their path each time they went on a deep playoff run. Nelson resigned after the 1986-87 season.

Nelson did some national color commentary work during the 1987-88 season before the Golden State Warriors hired him prior to the 1988-89 season. Nelson's seven years with the Warriors are most remembered for the spectacular play of the "Run TMC" trio, even though Tim Hardaway, Mitch Richmond, and Chris Mullin were only teammates for a little over two years. After Nelson's passing, Hardaway reflected on his impact: "Nellie was ahead of his time and there was nobody else like him. He had an incredible impact on my career and on the game of basketball. I'm going to miss him, and my thoughts and prayers are with Joy, Donnie and the entire Nelson family."

The Warriors led the NBA in scoring (116.3 ppg) in 1989-90, the Hall of Fame trio's first season together, but the Warriors ranked second to last in the league in points allowed (119.8 ppg) and finished with a 37-45 record. The Warriors went 44-38 in 1990-91, the team's best record since 1981-82. Prior to the 1991-92 season, the Warriors traded Richmond for the rights to Billy Owens. Owens finished third in Rookie of the Year voting as the Warriors went 55-27, their best record since the defending NBA champion Warriors went 59-23 in 1975-76. Injuries took a major toll in 1992-93 as the Warriors plummeted to 34-48, but they bounced back to 50-32 in 1993-94. Nelson clashed with Chris Webber, the team's second leading scorer and the NBA's 1994 Rookie of the Year, so Nelson resigned midway through the 1994-95 season. The Warriors did not make the playoffs again until 2007, the first season of Nelson's second stint as Golden State's coach.

Nelson coached the New York Knicks for less than a full season, guiding the team to a 34-25 record before being fired during the 1995-96 season. After one season away from coaching, Nelson served as the general manager and coach of the Dallas Mavericks starting in 1997. Nelson orchestrated the trades that resulted in the Mavericks acquiring future Hall of Famers Dirk Nowitzki and Steve Nash. Nowitzki posted a heartfelt tribute to his former coach and mentor:

Nellie… You didn't just draft me. You believed in me. You saw things in my game before I ever realized I could do them. I've said it a million times and I will always say it: I don't think my career could have turned out how it did without you being my first coach and giving me the freedom to play my game. I can only say THANK YOU. For everything. RIP legend.

The Mavericks had not made the playoffs since 1990 before Nelson guided them to four straight playoff appearances (2001-04), including a 60-22 season capped by a Western Conference Finals run in 2003. 

Nelson resigned as Dallas' coach late in the 2004-05 season and appointed Avery Johnson as his successor. After the season ended, Nelson resigned as general manager, tapping his son Donnie as his replacement. Nelson took a year off from coaching before going back to Golden State. The Warriors improved from 34-48 to 42-40 to earn the eighth playoff seed. Nelson outcoached his protege Avery Johnson as Nelson's Warriors authored one of the most memorable upsets in NBA playoff history by beating the top seeded 67-15 Mavericks 4-2 in the first round of the 2007 playoffs. The "We Believe" Warriors lost 4-1 in the second round. 

The Warriors improved to 48-34 next season, but missed the playoffs in a stacked Western Conference. That season, Nelson and Webber had a rapprochement, and Webber rejoined the Warriors, though he only played nine games before injuries forced him to retire. During the next two seasons, free agency and trades depleted the roster, but before departing the Warriors prior to the 2010-11 season Nelson laid the foundation for the team's future championship success by pushing the front office to select Stephen Curry with the seventh overall selection in the 2009 NBA Draft. It may be hard to imagine now, but at that time it was far from clear that Curry would be an All-Star, let alone an all-time great. The Warriors went 26-56 in Nelson's last season as Curry averaged 17.5 ppg and 5.9 apg to finish second to Tyreke Evans in Rookie of the Year voting.

Curry reacted to Nelson's passing with this statement:

One of the big reasons I was drafted by the Warriors was because of Don Nelson. The story is he never liked rookies, but from Day 1 he challenged me and gave me an opportunity to be my best self on the court. He taught me a lot during our one season together and I'll never forget the night he became the winningest coach in NBA history in Minnesota. We were so happy for him.

He had an immeasurable impact on the sport and will go down as one of the greatest minds in the history of the game. He's a true icon and will be missed by the countless number of people he touched, including myself, during a legendary career.

Nelson displayed keen insights in player evaluation not only in terms of the players he drafted and molded but also in some of his public comments about various players. For example, unlike many so-called experts who ignorantly bashed Kobe Bryant as selfish, Nelson fully appreciated Bryant's greatness, as indicated by this 2008 quote: "He allows these guys to do their thing and be successful and encourages them. He makes them even better than they are by playing alongside of him. He truly makes everybody better when he's on the floor with them. And you couldn't say that five years ago. But now you can say it. That's why he's such a complete player. When coaches look at players, we look at them a little bit differently. Do they make their surrounding teammates better? The answer with him is yes, yes, yes."

In another comment during Bryant's MVP-winning 2007-08 season, Nelson declared, "Kobe now has a grasp on the game like no other player and he controls it when he wants to. He makes the players alongside him succeed and he is a real leader out there. He has the whole package going for him; he is not just the best player in the league but probably the best leader. He could get 50 any time, I'm sure."

As part of the NBA's 50th anniversary celebration in 1996-97, Nelson was named one of the top 10 NBA coaches of all-time, and when the NBA celebrated its 75th anniversary in 2021-22 Nelson was honored as one of the top 15 NBA coaches of all-time. Despite not winning an NBA title, Nelson will long be remembered as one of the greatest and most innovative NBA coaches.

Labels: Boston Celtics, Chris Mullin, Dallas Mavericks, Dirk Nowitzki, Don Nelson, Golden State Warriors, Marques Johnson, Milwaukee Bucks, Mitch Richmond, New York Knicks, Paul Pressey, Steve Nash, Tim Hardaway

posted by David Friedman @ 12:32 PM

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Observations About the Opening Weekend of the 2026 NBA Playoffs

The eight series opening games from the first round of the 2026 NBA playoffs are in the books. Six games went as I expected, with the exceptions being Houston falling apart versus the L.A. Lakers after Kevin Durant did not play because of a bruised knee and Detroit losing meekly versus Orlando. It should be noted that even though it is often said that the first game of a playoff series is "a feel out game," the reality is that game one winners won the series 77.1% of the time since the NBA went to the current 16 team playoff format in the 1983-84 season. Last year, game one winners won 12 out of 15 playoff series, including all eight first round series. 

Here are my observations about each game, and my thoughts about each series. 

The 2026 NBA playoffs kicked off on Saturday with the Cleveland Cavaliers taming the Toronto Raptors, 126-113. The Cavaliers did not trail in the second half, and led 100-76 with 11:47 remaining in the fourth quarter. Both teams shot well from the field--Cleveland shot .543, Toronto shot .521--but the Cavaliers had 10 more field goal attempts because they won the rebounding battle 33-27 and because they had fewer turnovers. Donovan Mitchell scored a game-high 32 points on 11-20 field goal shooting; he has scored at least 30 points in an NBA-record nine consecutive series openers.

Max Strus added 24 points off of the bench on 8-10 field goal shooting, and James Harden contributed 22 points plus a game-high 10 assists. RJ Barrett paced the Raptors with 24 points on 7-13 field goal shooting. Mitchell scored 11 third quarter points as the Cavaliers outscored the Raptors 36-22 to blow open a game that had been close (61-54 Cleveland lead) at halftime. The final numbers are skewed a bit by fourth quarter garbage time--the Cavaliers were outrebounded 7-4 in the final stanza and they committed six of their 15 turnovers in the final 12 minutes--but the big picture view is that the Cavaliers are clearly the superior team, so we will not see Harden's annual playoff disappearing act until the second round.

In Saturday's second game, Denver's Nikola Jokic-Jamal Murray duo overwhelmed the Minnesota Timberwolves in a 116-105 win. Murray made all 16 of his free throws and scored a game-high 30 points despite shooting just 7-22 from the field. He also had seven assists and five rebounds. Jokic authored his 22nd career playoff triple double (25 points, game-high 13 rebounds, game-high 11 assists). He ranks third in career playoff triple doubles behind Magic Johnson (30) and LeBron James (28). Russell Westbrook (12) and Jason Kidd (11) round out the top five. At times, the Timberwolves seemed more focused on acting tough--by committing hard fouls and engaging in extra physical contact after the play--than playing tough, but the Nuggets stayed above the fray for the most part. Anthony Edwards led the Timberwolves with 22 points while also contributing nine rebounds and a team-high seven assists, but he shot just 7-19 from the field. These teams have been evenly matched in recent years, but the Timberwolves took command early with a 27-15 lead late in the first quarter. The Nuggets fought back to a 62-62 halftime tie before outscoring the Timberwolves 29-17 in the decisive third quarter. Jokic (12 points) and Murray (10 points) outscored the Timberwolves in the third quarter. Both teams showed that they are capable of making big runs, so this figures to be a long series.

Next, the New York Knicks grounded the young Atlanta Hawks, 113-102. Jalen Brunson scored a game-high 28 points on 9-22 field goal shooting, and he also had a team-high seven assists. Karl-Anthony Towns scored 25 points, grabbed eight rebounds, passed for four assists, blocked three shots, and committed a game-high tying five turnovers. C.J. McCollum led the Hawks with 26 points but he had just one assist while matching Towns for game-high "honors" with five turnovers. Jalen Johnson had 23 points and seven rebounds in his first playoff game as a starter after being a lightly used reserve in his first six playoff games. In the first half, Brunson (22 points) and McCollum (17 points) had a backcourt scoring duel, with the Knicks leading 57-55 at intermission. Towns dominated in the second half with 19 points as the Knicks outscored the Hawks 56-47 in the final 24 minutes. The Hawks vastly improved by getting rid of Trae Young, but they are not quite ready for prime time.

Saturday's final game provided the first surprise of the weekend: Kevin Durant was a late scratch because of a bruised knee that he suffered during practice. The Houston Rockets seemed baffled, lethargic, and offensively inept without Durant, shooting just 35-93 (.376) from the field in a 107-98 loss to the L.A. Lakers. The Lakers entered the series sans Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves, but they had some time before the playoffs began to adjust their rotation and roles accordingly. 

The Rockets--who lost starting point guard Fred VanVleet to a knee injury before the season and then lost rebounding machine Steven Adams to an ankle injury after he played just 32 games this season--did not have much time to prepare for Durant's absence, but they still should have been able to perform better than they did, particularly on defense. The Lakers torched the Rockets with 40-66 (.606) field goal shooting, led by Luke Kennard's playoff career-high 27 points on 9-13 field goal shooting. The seemingly ageless LeBron James had 19 points, a game-high 13 assists (including a playoff career-high eight first quarter assists), and eight rebounds. Deandre Ayton added 19 points and a team-high 11 rebounds as all five Laker starters scored in double figures. 

Alperun Segun led the Rockets with 19 points, but he shot just 6-19 from the field and was outplayed by Ayton. Houston's starters shot 26-75 (.347) from the field, including 9-28 (.321) from beyond the arc. The Rockets won the rebounding battle 44-35, including 21-3 on the offensive glass as they hustled to chase down their misses only to often miss again. Durant's status for game two is questionable, but with or without him the Rockets are capable of playing much better than they did in game one. Keep in mind that the Lakers have homecourt advantage in this series, which means that if the Rockets win game two then the Rockets are in control of the series even though the score would be tied 1-1; the Rockets would have an opportunity to take a 3-1 lead with home wins in games three and four.

In the first game on Sunday, the Boston Celtics destroyed the Philadelphia 76ers, 123-91. The Celtics led 33-18 after the first quarter and never looked back. Jaylen Brown scored a game-high 26 points on 11-21 field goal shooting, and Jayson Tatum had a brilliant all-around game: 25 points on 9-17 field goal shooting, game-high 11 rebounds, team-high seven assists. Tyrese Maxey led the 76ers with 21 points on 8-20 field goal shooting, and he passed for a game-high eight assists. Those numbers are solid--and better than the numbers posted by any of his teammates--but they are not quite enough for the number one option on a playoff team. Paul George was quiet (17 points, four rebounds, one assist) and VJ Edgecomb had just 13 points on 6-16 field goal shooting. The Celtics shot 45-90 (.500) from the field while holding the 76ers to 35-90 (.389) field goal shooting. I may have been generous in suggesting that the 76ers could avoid being swept.

The next game was even less competitive, as the defending NBA champion Oklahoma City Thunder eclipsed the defenseless Phoenix Suns, 119-84. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander shot just 5-18 from the field but he went 15-17 from the free throw line to accumulate a game-high 25 points in just 29 minutes. He also had a game-high seven assists plus four rebounds and two blocked shots. Jalen Williams added 22 points, seven rebounds, and six assists. Devin Booker led the Suns with 23 points on 8-17 field goal shooting, but Dillon Brooks shot just 6-22 from the field for 18 points, and Jalen Green scored 17 points on 6-16 field goal shooting. The Thunder led by 39 at one point, and this game was a "name your score" contest: the Thunder could have won by 50 or 60 if they wanted to do that, but a 35 point margin of victory with each starter playing less than 30 minutes was more than sufficient.

Sunday's third game was a stunner, as the inconsistent and offensively challenged Orlando Magic--who shot just 33-81 (.407) from the field in a 109-97 Play-In Tournament game loss to the Philadelphia 76ers last week--never trailed versus the Detroit Pistons en route to a 112-101 win. The 45-37 Magic shot a respectable 44-90 (.489) from the field while holding the East-leading 60-22 Pistons to 31-77 (.403) field goal shooting. Paolo Banchero scored a team-high 23 points, grabbed a game-high nine rebounds, and dished for four assists, including some very slick passes out of double teams/traps. The other four Magic starters each scored between 16 and 19 points. Cade Cunningham poured in a game-high 39 points on 13-27 field goal shooting, but his inefficient start--14 first half points on 5-12 field goal shooting--helped the Magic to build a 55-51 halftime lead. 

This was Detroit's 11th straight playoff game loss at home; the Pistons have not won a home playoff game since 2008. Is this the curse of Rodney Stuckey? I say that with tongue planted firmly in cheek, but the reality is that the Pistons have not been the same since Joe Dumars handed the keys to Stuckey. This is a new, young Pistons team that is years removed from the Stuckey fiasco, but the Pistons better hope that game one was simply a matter of rust and not a symptom of a deeper issue. The Pistons pride themselves on defense and physicality, but the Magic strolled into Detroit and took the Pistons' lunch money like a schoolyard bully.

The Sunday quadrupleheader concluded with Victor Wembanyama's much anticipated playoff debut, and he did not disappoint a San Antonio sellout crowd of 19,372 that included Hall of Famers David Robinson and Tim Duncan. The San Antonio Spurs defeated the Portland Trail Blazers 111-98 as Wembanyama scored a game-high 35 points on 13-21 field goal shooting to break Duncan's team record for most points scored in a playoff game debut (32). Wembanyama had five rebounds as the Spurs used a collective effort on the boards to outrebound the Trail Blazers, 45-38. No Spur had more than seven rebounds, but six Spurs had at least five rebounds. De'Aaron Fox and Stephon Castle contributed 17 points each, while Devin Vassell added 15 points. Deni Avdija had a team-high 30 points, a game-high 10 rebounds, and five assists in his playoff debut, but his Portland teammates did provide nearly enough help, scoring just 68 points on 27-70 (.386) field goal shooting. The Spurs looked like a championship contender, while the Trail Blazers looked outmatched.

Labels: Atlanta Hawks, Boston Celtics, Denver Nuggets, Detroit Pistons, Houston Rockets, L.A. Lakers, Minnesota Timberwolves, New York Knicks, Oklahoma City Thunder, Orlando Magic, Philadelphia 76ers, Phoenix Suns, San Antonio Spurs

posted by David Friedman @ 3:34 PM

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2025-26 NBA Playoff Predictions

For the sixth consecutive season, the NBA used a Play-In Tournament to determine the seventh and eighth seeds in each conference (the NBA also had a Western Conference Play-In Game during the 2020 "bubble" in Orlando). The Philadelphia 76ers and the Orlando Magic claimed the final two Eastern Conference playoff spots, while the Portland Trail Blazers and the Phoenix Suns earned the final two Western Conference playoff spots. Prior to the 2026 Play-In Tournament, I picked Orlando, Charlotte, Phoenix, and the L.A. Clippers to emerge as qualifiers, so my record for correctly picking the Play-In Tournament qualifiers is 3-1 in 2021, 3-1 in 2022, 2-2 in 2023, 3-1 in 2024, 3-1 in 2025, and 2-2 in 2026.

Before explaining my playoff predictions, here is a recap of some of the most significant stories from the 2025-2026 NBA season.

After a dominating 2024-25 regular season that culminated in winning the NBA championship, the Oklahoma City Thunder started their title defense in commanding fashion, bursting out of the gates 8-0 before tying the all-time NBA record for best 25 game start (24-1, first accomplished by the 2015-16 Golden State Warriors). The Thunder had four losses in a six game stretch in December--including back to back defeats by the San Antonio Spurs--but closed the season strongly with 19 wins in a 20 game span before resting their key players in the final two games after wrapping up the number one overall seed in the playoffs. It would have been very difficult to match their historic 2025 standards--including a 68-14 regular season record (tied for sixth-seventh best all-time) with the best point differential in NBA history (12.87 ppg)--but the Thunder's 2025-26 season is very impressive: 64-18 record with a 11.15 ppg point differential (eighth best all-time). 

The Thunder's season is even more impressive considering that each of their top four players in minutes played per game participated in 69 games or less, with 2025 All-Star Jalen Williams appearing in just 33 games. Only two Thunder players played in at least 70 games: Cason Wallace (77 games, 58 starts) and Isaiah Joe (71 games, nine starts).

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander--who won the 2025 regular season MVP, the 2025 Magic Johnson Western Conference Finals MVP, and the 2025 Bill Russell NBA Finals MVP--had another sensational all-around season, leading the team in scoring (31.1 ppg, second in the league) and assists (career-high 6.6 apg) while leading the league in free throws made per game (7.9) for the third straight season. His shooting splits (.553/.386/.879) include a career-high field goal percentage, and he continues to be an excellent defensive player. 

The Thunder's strengths are Gilgeous-Alexander's all-around brilliance supported by tremendous depth, a collective commitment to playing strong team defense, and a collective unselfish attitude at both ends of the court. The Thunder are not quite as dominant in the possession game as they were in 2025 when they led the league in steals, turnovers forced, fewest steals allowed, and fewest turnovers committed, but they still ranked second, second, fourth, and second respectively in those categories. The Thunder are not a huge team, so they can be bothered by size and they are not an elite rebounding squad (ranking 12th in the league), but if they are even somewhat healthy it is difficult to picture them losing a seven game series. 

Victor Wembanyama has been the centerpiece of a talented and deep San Antonio Spurs squad that went 4-1 versus the Thunder during the regular season. I did not foresee the Spurs being this good this fast, but in my 2025-26 Western Conference Preview I made it clear that the Spurs should be expected to make the playoffs (which was not a universally held belief prior to this season): 

There are no more excuses for missing the playoffs. The Spurs have a generational talent--the 2024 NBA Rookie of the Year Victor Wembanyama--plus they have veteran former All-Star guard De'Aaron Fox, and they also have 2025 NBA Rookie of the Year Stephon Castle. I am skeptical about the long term prospects of teams that tanked--and I am not convinced that the Spurs are on a championship track--but the Spurs have too much talent to not at least qualify for the playoffs.

The Spurs ranked second in the league in rebounding, third in scoring, fourth in defensive field goal percentage, sixth in field goal percentage, and eighth in points allowed. Wembanyama's strong imprint is felt in all of those categories, as he led the team in scoring (career-high 25.0 ppg), rebounding (career-high 11.5 rpg, fourth in the league), and blocked shots (3.1 bpg, earning his third shot blocking title in three NBA seasons) while shooting a career-high .512 from the field. De'Aaron Fox earned his second career All-Star selection (his first as a Spur) while averaging 18.6 ppg and 6.2 apg. Stephon Castle improved his numbers across the board to 16.7 ppg, a team-high 7.4 apg (sixth in the league), 5.3 rpg, 1.1 spg, and .471 FG%. 

The Spurs have all of the necessary ingredients for a championship team except for playoff experience. Harrison Barnes (9.9 ppg, 52 starts in 77 games) started for the 2015 NBA champion Golden State Warriors, but he is the Spurs' only rotation player who has significant postseason experience.

Switching to the Eastern Conference, the Detroit Pistons continued their remarkable resurgence under Coach J.B. Bickerstaff, climbing from 14 wins (under Monty Williams) in 2023-24 to 44 wins in Bickerstaff's first Detroit season to pacing the Eastern Conference with 60 wins this season. Cade Cunningham--who led the team in scoring (23.9 ppg) and assists (9.9 apg)--has emerged as an All-NBA Team caliber player during the past two seasons, and fourth year player Jalen Duren earned his first All-Star selection while averaging 19.5 ppg and 10.5 rpg (sixth in the league). Bickerstaff has transformed the Pistons into a physical team that is elite at both ends of the court, ranking third in the league in defensive field goal percentage, third in points allowed, third in field goal percentage, eighth in rebounding, and eighth in scoring.

This season was expected to be a so-called "gap year" for the Boston Celtics in the wake of Jayson Tatum's torn right Achilles suffered during the 2025 playoffs followed by the exodus of key contributors Kristaps Porzingis (19.5 ppg, 6.8 rpg, 1.5 bpg in the 2024-25 regular season), Jrue Holiday (11.1 ppg, 4.3 rpg, 3.9 apg in 2024-25), Al Horford (9.0 ppg, 6.2 rpg in 2024-25), and Luke Kornet (6.0 ppg, 5.3 rpg in 2024-25). The Celtics ranked eighth in the NBA in rebounding during the 2024-25 season; that standard seemed difficult to match sans Tatum, Porzingis, Horford, and Kornet, who ranked first, second, third, and fifth respectively on the team in rebounding--but the Celtics ranked third in rebounding this season. Tatum averaging 10.0 rpg during his 16 game return helped, but six other Celtics each averaged at least 4 rpg, with starting center Neemias Queta averaging 8.4 rpg and leading the squad in total rebounds (636). Jaylen Brown had a high volume season, leading the league in field goals made (736), field goals attempted (1543), and turnovers (259) while setting career highs in scoring (28.7 ppg), rebounding (6.9 rpg), and assists (5.1 apg) to earn his fourth straight All-Star selection (and fifth selection overall).

Brown's increased production provides a nice segue to the MVP conversation. Brown deserves to receive some top five MVP votes and should be a lock for the All-NBA Team, but he should not receive any first place MVP votes. The MVP race is rarely as wide open as media members suggest it to be; in most seasons, the five All-NBA First Team caliber players are a cut above everyone else, and often there are two or three of those players who separate themselves even further. This season, there are three players who should combine to receive all of the first place votes in MVP balloting: Nikola Jokic (the MVP winner in 2021, 2022, and 2024), Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (the 2025 MVP), and Victor Wembanyama. 

It is unfortunate that media-driven narratives appear to play a large role in the voting process, but that is the best explanation for how Allen Iverson, Steve Nash, Derrick Rose, and James Harden each won a regular season MVP (Nash won two!) while Pantheon members Shaquille O'Neal and Kobe Bryant only won one regular season MVP each (but O'Neal earned three NBA Finals MVPs and Bryant earned two NBA Finals MVPs). I have consistently insisted that the MVP should be selected based on skill set evaluations and not narratives or "advanced basketball statistics." The only exception is when there is a dominant player who does not have an all-around skill set but is nevertheless clearly the league's best player. Shaquille O'Neal is the quintessential example of such a player; he was a poor free throw shooter who was only intermittently interested in playing defense, but he was such a dominant scorer and rebounder that he was the NBA's best player during his prime.

There has been a lot of groaning and grumbling about the NBA rule that stipulates that a player must participate in at least 65 regular season games to be eligible for most awards; to no small extent, this complaining is emblematic of much of what is going wrong with our society: there is an expectation--a sense of unwarranted entitlement, to be precise--that one should be paid handsomely and receive award recognition despite putting forth minimal effort. The NBA traditionally did not give awards to players who missed a substantial number of games, and there is nothing wrong with formalizing such rules in an era when so many people have lost respect for tradition and are looking for loopholes/excuses. 

The NBA and NBPA jointly agreed to provide "extraordinary circumstances" exceptions for Luka Doncic and Cade Cunningham so that both players will be eligible for awards. Prior to that announcement, when people talked about Doncic and Cunningham regarding the 65 game rule, emphasis was placed on their late season injuries without pointing out that if both players had not missed so many games throughout the season then their late season injuries would not have rendered them ineligible for postseason awards. I'll say this slowly so everyone can follow: the w-h-o-l-e season counts--games in November, games in December, and games in every other month all matter, and players are being paid huge guaranteed salaries to actively participate in as many games as possible. Such participation used to be the norm, but now must be enforced--and the 65 game rule is part of the current Collective Bargaining Agreement, meaning that the players accepted this requirement.

Jokic played in 65 games this season, which is his lowest number since he played in 55 games and 59 games in his first two seasons. Last season, Jokic became the only player other than Wilt Chamberlain to rank in the top three in the NBA in scoring, rebounding, and assists in the same season while also becoming the first center and third player to average a triple double in a season--and this season Jokic was even better, leading the league in rebounding (12.9 rpg) and assists (career-high 10.7 apg) while ranking eighth in scoring (27.7 ppg) with shooting splits of .569/.380/.830. He is not a lockdown individual defender, but he led the league in defensive rebounding (9.9 defensive rebounds per game) while also averaging 1.4 spg and .8 bpg. Jokic has finished first or second in the MVP voting in each of the past five seasons, but a case could be made that he is underrated. Jokic has averaged at least 24.5 ppg, at least 10.8 rpg and at least 7.9 apg for six straight seasons while never shooting worse than .566 from the field; no player in pro basketball history has matched each of those thresholds for a six season span. Moreover, the team numbers show that during that period the Nuggets performed at an elite level when Jokic is on the court and resembled a Draft Lottery team when he is off of the court (and their 11-6 record this season without him is loaded with wins against lower echelon teams); in other words, he is not just stuffing the stat sheet individually but he is productive in ways that help his team win.

This is the fourth straight season that Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has performed at an MVP level, and in the previous three seasons he finished fifth, second, and first in the balloting. He averaged at least 30.1 ppg and at least 5.5 apg while shooting at least .510 from the field in each of those four seasons. Gilgeous-Alexander combines the elite midrange shooting touch of George Gervin with the ability to slash to the hoop, draw fouls, and dish to open teammates. He is also an excellent defensive player. There is nothing negative to say about him, and no reason that he should not be selected as MVP--except for the inconvenient fact that Jokic is even more productive and efficient.

Third year pro Victor Wembanyama has progressed rapidly in many areas: he is stronger, his shot selection is vastly improved, and he has learned how to impose his will on opposing teams (which is a subtler and more valuable skill than just accumulating gaudy individual numbers). This season, he set career highs in scoring (25.0 ppg), rebounding (11.5 rpg, fourth in the league), and field goal percentage (.512) while leading the league in blocked shots for the third straight season, a feat last accomplished by Marcus Camby (2006-08) and Dikembe Mutombo (1994-96). His Spurs limped to 22 wins in his rookie season, jogged to 34 wins in year two, and sprinted to 62 wins this season. Wembanyama would benefit from adding some more lower body strength, but he has no skill set weaknesses. He is an MVP caliber player--but Jokic is a better player who had an even better season. I rank Wembanyama behind Gilgeous-Alexander because Gilgeous-Alexander has already proven (1) he can sustain MVP caliber play for multiple seasons and (2) he can sustain MVP caliber play during a deep playoff run. One might argue that those two broad contextual factors are not relevant for selecting the MVP for this particular season but I disagree: in a close race, all factors have heightened importance and unless/until Wembanyama either laps the field of MVP candidates or leads his team on a deep playoff run I would select proven players Jokic and Gilgeous-Alexander ahead of him. Put another way, you have to beat the champ to be the champ. We know that what Jokic and Gilgeous-Alexander are doing is sustainable both year to year and in the playoffs, but we just assume that what Wembanyama is doing is sustainable.

I will share a few brief thoughts about three other players who have been mentioned as MVP candidates.

Doncic should not come close to the top three in the balloting. Doncic is a wunderkind on offense but too often he is missing in action on defense. His incessant whining to officials resulted in him accumulating 16 technical fouls, leading to an automatic one game suspension.

Jaylen Brown had a career year in terms of individual statistics, but the surprising Boston Celtics often performed just as well or even better when he did not play. He is an All-NBA First Team caliber player, but he is not as great as the top three MVP candidates. 

Cade Cunningham is an elite scorer/playmaker who also plays good defense, but he is not more skillful or impactful than Jokic, Gilgeous-Alexander, or Wembanyama.

A review of the 2025-26 season would not be complete without mentioning tanking, which has become so widespread that up to 10 of the league's 30 teams are actively losing on purpose. This has major implications for ticket-buying fans, media sponsors, gamblers, and the league's statistical records, which have been permanently skewed, most notably when Bam Adebayo scored 83 points versus the Washington "Wheez-hards." This trampling of the sport's record book matters in terms of historical rankings: Jokic, Gilgeous-Alexander, Wembanyama and other players have set various records, but how seriously should we take those numbers when a third of the league's teams are actively trying to lose?

Here are my first round predictions:

Read more »

Labels: Boston Celtics, Cade Cunningham, Denver Nuggets, Detroit Pistons, Jalen Brunson, Jaylen Brown, New York Knicks, Nikola Jokic, Oklahoma City Thunder, San Antonio Spurs, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Victor Wembanyama

posted by David Friedman @ 1:52 AM

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Early Season Notes About Some High Profile Teams

It is way too early to make any definitive--or even preliminary--conclusions about the just-started NBA season, but here are a few observations about what we have seen so far, starting with last season's "Final Four" teams and then looking at several other teams that receive a lot of attention.

Oklahoma City Thunder: The Thunder started the season 4-0 without the injured Jalen Williams, who made the All-NBA Third Team and the All-Star team last season. Their margin for error and their victory margins are much smaller than last season; the Thunder currently have a point differential of 7.7 ppg, which is very good by normal standards but just pedestrian compared to the all-time single season record that they set last season (12.9 ppg). The Thunder are scoring 121.0 ppg, just above the 120.5 ppg that they averaged last season, but four games is a small sample size and two of the Thunder's four games went to double overtime. In their two regulation length wins, they scored 117 points and 101 points.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is carrying an even bigger load than he did last season when he won the scoring title, the regular season MVP, the Magic Johnson Western Conference Finals MVP, and the NBA Finals MVP; he joined Michael Jordan as the only players in the last 50 years to total at least 120 points in the first three games of a season, and he is the only player to accomplish this feat while shooting at least .500 from the field. Gilgeous-Alexander is also just the third player to score at least 20 points in at least 75 straight games, with his streak only trailing one streak by Oscar Robertson (79) and two streaks by Wilt Chamberlain (96 and 126).

Indiana Pacers: This will be a challenging season for the Pacers, who are without both injured All-Star point guard Tyrese Haliburton and long-time starting center Myles Turner, who signed with the Milwaukee Bucks last summer. The Pacers started 0-3, competing hard in a double overtime loss to the Thunder in the season opener before being blown out by Memphis (128-103) and losing a close game to Minnesota (114-110). It should be noted that Minnesota's best player, Anthony Edwards, played only three minutes in that game.

Last season, Haliburton led a high octane offense that ranked seventh in the league in scoring; through three games, the Pacers rank 20th in scoring, and an alarming 28th in points allowed.  

The Pacers are well-coached by Rick Carlisle, and their identity is to play hard, but they have lost too much talent to be a playoff team this season. They are relying heavily on Pascal Siakam, who is doing all that he can to keep the team afloat (26.0 ppg, 10.3 rpg, 6.0 apg). Bennedict Mathurin averaged 31.0 ppg in two games, but he suffered a toe injury in the second game and sat out the Pacers' third game. It is uncertain when he will return to action.

New York Knicks: The Knicks opened the season by beating the Cleveland Cavaliers 119-111, and then they defeated the depleted Boston Celtics before losing to the Miami Heat, who are missing injured All-Star guard Tyler Herro. The Knicks are averaging 110.3 ppg and rank second in the league with 46.3 three point field goal attempts per game; last season, the Knicks scored 115.8 ppg and averaged 34.1 three point field goal attempts per game (27th in the league). 

The Knicks replaced coach Tom Thibodeau with Mike Brown. Although the Knicks are scoring a bit less so far this season, their offense appears to be running at a faster pace and definitely involves more three point shooting. Last season, the Knicks reached the Eastern Conference Finals for the first time since 2000, so this season is NBA Finals or bust for the Knicks.

Minnesota Timberwolves: Minnesota started 2-1, but two-time All-NBA Second Team selection Anthony Edwards played just three minutes in the third game (a 114-110 win versus Indiana) before suffering a hamstring injury that will keep him out of action for at least a week. Last night, the Timberwolves sans Edwards fell to the Denver Nuggets, 127-114. The Timberwolves started 6-6 last season and recovered to earn the sixth seed before advancing to the Western Conference Finals for the second consecutive year. Julius Randle is averaging 25.0 ppg, 6.8 rpg, and 5.3 apg. The Timberwolves cannot reasonably expect to reach the Western Conference Finals again from the sixth seed, so it is important for them to win some games while Edwards is out, and then pick up the pace after he returns.

Cleveland Cavaliers: After losing 119-111 to the New York Knicks in the season opener for both teams, the Cavaliers reeled off three straight wins, capped by a 116-95 dismantling of the Detroit Pistons last night. The Pistons, tapped by some commentators as a potential Eastern Conference contender, fell to 2-2 and trailed by as much as 35 points before the contest entered what Marv Albert would call "extensive garbage time."

Donovan Mitchell has been fantastic through four games, averaging 31.3 ppg while shooting .564 from the field. Four other Cavaliers are each averaging at least 13.5 ppg, picking up the slack for injured All-Star guard Darius Garland and injured three point specialist Max Strus. 

The Cavaliers have proven that they are an excellent regular season team--finishing first in the Eastern Conference last season with a 64-18 record after starting 15-0--but, like the Knicks, their season will be deemed successful based solely on making a deep playoff run. The Cavaliers have not advanced past the second round since LeBron James led them to the 2018 NBA Finals. 

Boston Celtics: Like the Indiana Pacers, the Boston Celtics face an uphill climb this season due to an injured star player and a depleted roster. Jayson Tatum is expected to miss the entire season, and key players Jrue Holiday, Kristaps Porzingis, Al Horford, and Luke Kornet are now playing for other teams. Tatum is one of the NBA's five best players, and one of the underrated aspects of his greatness is defense, particularly defensive rebounding. During their 1-3 start, the Celtics rank 17th in rebounding and 19th in defensive rebounding. Last season, the Celtics ranked eighth in rebounding and seventh in defensive rebounding, with Tatum leading the team in both categories by wide margins. 

The Celtics also miss Tatum's scoring and his shot creation; so far this season, the Celtics rank 23rd in field goal percentage, 25th in three point field goal percentage, and 10th in three point field goals made; last season, the Celtics ranked 19th, 10th, and first respectively in those categories, with Tatum being the primary scorer and primary facilitator.

Golden State Warriors: It feels like the Warriors are living on borrowed time with an aging, injury-prone roster, but so far they are 3-1, including an overtime victory versus a Denver team that looks like a championship contender. Casual fans and uninformed commentators tend to focus on Golden State's offense and specifically Stephen Curry's three point shooting, but the Warriors' championship teams were excellent defensively; their most recent title-winning team in 2022 ranked second in defensive field goal percentage and third in points allowed. The Warriors currently rank 24th in points allowed and 28th in defensive field goal percentage, and if they continue at that pace on defense then they are unlikely to be a contending team regardless of how many three pointers Curry makes. 

Curry is leading the league in free throw percentage (he is perfect in 22 attempts), three point field goals made (20) and three point field goals attempted (44) while averaging 29.0 ppg. He has not averaged 29.0 ppg since the 2022-23 season, so it will be interesting to see if he can score at that level for a full season as a soon to be 38 year old. Jimmy Butler is averaging 21.5 ppg--which would be his highest scoring average since 2022-23--and he said that he plans to have a higher free throw percentage than Curry this season. Butler's free throw percentage so far (.881) is a career-high but would be the second worst free throw percentage of Curry's career! 

Denver Nuggets: Nikola Jokic has led the Denver Nuggets to a championship and two Western Conference Finals appearances even though he has yet to play with a current All-Star; that streak of non-All-Star teammates may end this season if Jamal Murray (30.3 ppg) and Aaron Gordon (25.3 ppg) remain healthy and productive. Jokic just joined Oscar Robertson (1960-61) and Russell Westbrook (2020-21) on the list of players who had a triple double in each of the first three games of a season; last night, Jokic had 25 points, 19 rebounds, and 10 assists in what Peacock's Grant Hill called a "quiet" performance as the Nuggets beat the Minnesota Timberwolves, 127-114. "Quiet" for Jokic would be a career-best loud thunderstorm for most NBA players.  

Denver went 0-4 versus Minnesota last season after losing 4-3 to the Timberwolves in the second round of the 2024 playoffs, but a major caveat about yesterday's game is that--as noted above--Anthony Edwards did not play due to a hamstring injury that is expected to sideline him for two weeks. 

An overtime loss to the Warriors followed by wins against the Phoenix Suns and the Timberwolves sans Edwards is a small sample size, but the Nuggets should be encouraged not only by the health/productivity of Murray and Gordon but also by the solid contributions made by newly acquired players Tim Hardaway Jr., Cameron Johnson, Jonas Valanciunas, and Bruce Brown. Throughout Jokic's career, the Nuggets have tended to get destroyed when he is out of the game, so if the rebuilt bench can even just tread water while Jokic rests then Jokic, Murray, and Gordon will be fresher and deadlier than ever. 

L.A. Lakers: The Lakers started the season without LeBron James, who will miss at least a few more weeks due to sciatica, and now they will be without Luka Doncic for at least a week due to a finger injury and a lower leg contusion. Doncic scored 43 points and then 49 points in the Lakers' first two games, setting a franchise record for most points by a player in the first two games of a season--but the Lakers went 1-1 in those games. Doncic is the only Laker other than Kobe Bryant to have at least 45 points, at least 10 rebounds, at least five assists, and at least five three point field goals made in the same regular season game. 

The Lakers are now 1-1 without Doncic. They beat the Sacramento Kings 127-120 as Austin Reaves erupted for a career-high 51 points along with 11 rebounds and nine assists, and last night they lost 122-108 to Portland with Reaves scoring a game-high 41 points and committing a game-high eight turnovers. 

Other than the health of their top two players, the key question for the Lakers is if they can consistently play good defense. They rank 14th in both points allowed and defensive field goal percentage. It is far from certain that having James and Doncic for all four games would have helped in either of those categories, as James is no longer a consistently good defensive player and Doncic is consistently a subpar defensive player. 

The Lakers cannot go very far just based on offense alone; in their 128-110 victory over Minnesota, the Lakers shot .592 (45-76) from the field, powered by Doncic shooting 14-23 (.609). That kind of shooting is great, but unsustainable. 

Deandre Ayton is averaging 15.8 ppg and 9.3 rpg while shooting .600 from the field, and the Lakers will need for him to continue to be productive.

The funny thing about any team featuring LeBron James is that James' media buddies will always promote the narrative that James does not have enough help. If James played with prime Kobe Bryant, prime Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, prime Magic Johnson, prime Elgin Baylor, and prime Jerry West, there is no doubt that Chris Haynes would report, "Sources tell me that Bryant shoots too much, Kareem only shoots skyhooks and his presence in the paint prevents LeBron from driving to the hoop, Magic's ball dominance prevents LeBron from doing what he does best, the Lakers would be better if Baylor stood in the corner to shoot three pointers, and West hurts the team because he can only dribble with his right hand." Dave McMenamin would add, "Anonymous players told me that Kareem is a 'vampire' who sucks the life out of the locker room, no one wants to play with Kobe, Magic smiles too much, Baylor is a ball hog, and West should let LeBron be the primary ballhandler." Brian Windhorst would conclude, "Ever since I followed LeBron around when he was in high school, LeBron has been a pass-first player who is a great leader. On this Lakers team, he is not able to pass or lead because Magic and West have taken those roles, and sources tell me that LeBron is not happy about this."

The current Lakers have two perimeter players beside James who can score 50 points or get 10 assists in a game, they have a center who rebounds, rolls to the hoop, and takes high percentage shots, and they have several solid role players, but after they once again fail to advance past the first round we will hear about how it is everyone's fault except LeBron's. The LeBron James era in L.A. has featured one "bubble" championship, one other Western Conference Finals appearance, three first round losses, and two seasons of missing the playoffs. James had an MVP-caliber/first ballot Hall of Fame player (Anthony Davis or Luka Doncic) in his prime next to him for all but one of those seasons. For the record, Kobe Bryant led the Lakers to back to back titles in 2009 and 2010 without a single teammate who made the NBA's 75th Anniversary Team. 

San Antonio Spurs: The Spurs and Thunder are the NBA's only 4-0 teams. Victor Wembanyama has posted MVP-level numbers: 31.0 ppg (seventh in the league), 13.8 rpg (fourth), 4.8 bpg (first), and .603 field goal percentage. The most encouraging number may be the number that decreased the most: he is attempting 2.8 three point field goals per game after attempting 8.8 three point field goals per game last season. Wembanyama looks bigger, stronger, and much more focused on attacking the paint. Accurate three point shooting is an important weapon for players and for teams, but championships are won on defense and in the paint, and Wembanyama is making strong contributions in those important areas.

The Spurs are unlikely to be a championship contender this season, but Wembanyama is showing signs of being the kind of player who can be the best player on a legit contender. He is receiving solid support from the team's other young players, including Stephon Castle (18.3 ppg, 6.0 rpg, 4.8 apg), Devin Vassell (16.8 ppg), rookie Dylan Harper (14.8 ppg, 4.8 apg), and Keldon Johnson (12.0 ppg on .643 field goal shooting).  

The Spurs rank first in points allowed and second in defensive field goal percentage. They could win at least 50 games if they can maintain those rankings for the entire season.

Labels: Boston Celtics, Cleveland Cavaliers, Denver Nuggets, Golden State Warriors, Indiana Pacers, L.A. Lakers, Minnesota Timberwolves, New York Knicks, Oklahoma City Thunder, San Antonio Spurs

posted by David Friedman @ 3:49 PM

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Knicks Rout Celtics 119-81 to Reach Eastern Conference Finals for First Time Since 2000

The New York Knicks dismantled the foolish notion that the Boston Celtics might be better without Jayson Tatum, routing the 2024 NBA champions 119-81 in game six to advance to the Eastern Conference Finals for the first time since 2000. During the regular season, the Knicks went a combined 0-8 versus the 64-18 Cleveland Cavaliers and the 61-21 Boston Celtics, but the Knicks took care of the hobbled Celtics and will now face the Indiana Pacers, who blitzed the Cavaliers 4-1 in the Eastern Conference's other second round series.

The Knicks broke the franchise record for largest margin of victory in a playoff game after the Celtics gave their fans a brief flicker of hope by winning game five 127-102 sans Tatum, who suffered a ruptured right Achilles in the waning moments of New York's 121-113 game four victory. The Celtics now own the dubious distinction of suffering the worst loss ever by a defending NBA champion in an elimination game, and the 38 point defeat is tied for the third worst in franchise playoff history.

Four New York players scored between 21 and 23 points: Jalen Brunson (23 points, six assists, six rebounds), OG Anunoby (23 points, nine rebounds), Mikal Bridges (22 points), and Karl-Anthony Towns (21 points, game-high 12 rebounds). New York's fifth starter, Josh Hart, logged a triple double with 10 points, 11 rebounds, and a game-high 11 assists. Brunson led both teams in scoring (26.2 ppg) and assists (7.2 apg) during this series. It is interesting that so much attention is paid to Dallas swapping Luka Doncic for Anthony Davis but little is said about Dallas getting nothing in return for the "Brunson Burner," who had a scorching run during the 2024 playoffs and is quickly establishing himself as one of the most productive playoff performers in Knicks history.

My Eastern Conference Finals Preview will take a deeper look at the Knicks, so this article will focus on the Celtics not only in terms of losing to the Knicks but also regarding the franchise's future in light of Tatum's injury.

It is not clear why Tatum has so many critics, doubters, and detractors, but their voices could be heard loudly after the Celtics won game five without him. It is not surprising for a team--particularly a talented team with a lot of playoff experience--to win one home playoff game without their best player; the challenge is to sustain success without him, and game six spoke volumes: the Knicks outrebounded the Celtics 55-36 while holding the Celtics to 31-86 (.360) field goal shooting, including 12-40 (.300) from three point range. Tatum was the centerpiece of Boston's offensive juggernaut, leading the team in regular season scoring (26.8 ppg) and assists (career-high 6.0 apg) while also pacing the team in rebounding (8.7 rpg); he also led Boston in playoff scoring (28.1 ppg), rebounding (11.5 rpg), and assists (5.4 apg). Tatum was Boston's leading rebounder (11.8 rpg) in this series by more than 5 rpg.

We often hear about Stephen Curry's "gravity," but Tatum exercises a significant gravitational pull as well: during the 2024-25 regular season, the Celtics averaged 116.3 ppg while shooting .462 from the field and .368 from beyond the arc, sinking the most three point field goals (17.8 per game) in NBA history. The decline without Tatum was dramatic; the Celtics' 81 points versus the Knicks is their 2025 playoff low by 10 points, and they only scored less than 81 points once during the 82 game regular season; during the 2023-24 regular season and playoffs, the Celtics scored less than 91 points just once. 

Tatum has been one of the NBA's most productive players for more than half a decade, averaging at least 23.6 ppg in each of the past six seasons while earning six straight All-Star selections, three All-NBA First Team selections (likely four after this year's voting is announced), and three top six MVP finishes (likely four after this year's voting is announced). He has been even better in the playoffs, averaging at least 25.0 ppg for six straight playoff campaigns while winning the 2022 Larry Bird Eastern Conference Finals MVP as the Celtics reached the Eastern Conference Finals four times, and the NBA Finals twice. Tatum has averaged at least 29.0 ppg in five playoff series during his career, and the Celtics won four of those series. He averaged at least 21.5 ppg in 17 straight playoff series dating back to 2020. In terms of signature performances in individual games, Tatum scored a playoff career-high 51 points in a 112-88 game seven win versus Philadelphia in 2023 (outdueling Joel Embiid and James Harden, who have each won a regular season MVP), and he scored 50 points in a 125-119 game three win versus Brooklyn in 2021 as the injury-depleted seventh seeded Celtics defeated a second seeded Nets squad featuring Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving, and James Harden. Tatum has scored at least 40 points in three other playoff games, including 42 in game four versus the Knicks this year before rupturing his right Achilles with 3:06 remaining and the Celtics trailing 113-104. Tatum had 11 points in seven fourth quarter minutes, and the series would have been tied 2-2 if he had stayed healthy and led the Celtics to a late comeback.

Last year, Tatum led the Celtics in playoff scoring (25.0 ppg), rebounding (9.7 rpg), and assists (6.3 apg), but the media gave the Larry Bird Eastern Conference Finals MVP and the Bill Russell NBA Finals MVP to Jaylen Brown despite Brown not being as productive or dominant as Tatum. Tatum has a 15-7 (.682) career playoff series record, including 1-1 in the NBA Finals and 2-3 in the Eastern Conference Finals.

Tatum's career playoff resume ranks near the top among active players; here are the career playoff series records of the other players who made the All-NBA First Team at least once since 2019-20:

Stephen Curry: 24-6 (.800), 6-0 Western Conference Finals, 4-2 NBA Finals

LeBron James: 41-14 (.745), 9-1 Eastern Conference Finals, 1-1 Western Conference Finals, 4-6 NBA Finals

Kawhi Leonard: 19-9 (.679), 2-2 Western Conference Finals, 1-0 Eastern Conference Finals, 2-1 NBA Finals

Kevin Durant: 22-11 (.667), 3-3 Western Conference Finals, 2-2 NBA Finals (he has four NBA Finals appearances because the Warriors won the 2019 WCF without him and then he played 12 minutes in the 2019 NBA Finals before rupturing his Achilles)

Nikola Jokic: 10-6 (.625, pending the outcome of tomorrow's Denver-Oklahoma City game seven), 1-1 Western Conference Finals, 1-0 NBA Finals

Anthony Davis: 7-5 (.583), 1-1 Western Conference Finals, 1-0 NBA Finals 

Devin Booker: 5-4 (.555), 1-0 Western Conference Finals, 0-1 NBA Finals

Giannis Antetokounmpo: 8-8 (.500), 1-1 Eastern Conference Finals, 1-0 NBA Finals

Luka Doncic: 5-5 (.500), 1-1 Western Conference Finals, 0-1 NBA Finals

James Harden: 15-16 (.484), 1-3 Western Conference Finals, 0-1 NBA Finals

Joel Embiid: 5-7 (.417), no appearances in Eastern Conference Finals or NBA Finals

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: 2-4 (.333, pending the outcome of tomorrow's Denver-Oklahoma City game seven), no appearances in Western Conference Finals or NBA Finals

Tatum has also been durable, playing in at least 72 regular season games in each of the six seasons of his career not impacted by COVID-19 (and he played in 66 out of 72 games in 2019-20, and 64 out of 72 games in 2020-21). Tatum has only missed one playoff game out of 121.

Considering Tatum's productivity and durability, it is difficult to overstate the significance of him likely missing most if not all of an entire season during the height of his prime. It is unusual for a reigning NBA champion to lose its best player to injury during the next season's playoffs; perhaps the most prominent such example is Bill Walton's foot injury that short circuited Portland's 1978 playoff run and marked the end of his Portland career, though Walton later won a championship as a reserve for the 1986 Boston Celtics. Magic Johnson suffered a hamstring injury during the 1989 NBA Finals, ending the L.A. Lakers' chance at a "three-peat" after they went 11-0 in the first three rounds of the playoffs, but that injury did not affect the rest of his career, and he led the Lakers back to the NBA Finals in 1991.

Tatum's injury not only sealed the Celtics' fate in an already challenging series versus the Knicks, but it will have implications for next season and beyond. The Celtics had the NBA's third highest payroll ($195,598,491) in 2024-25, and their projected 2025-26 payroll ($223,938,825) is expected to be the league's highest. Brown was paid $49,205,800 in 2024-25, and he will be paid $53,142,264 next season, while Tatum made $34,848,340 this season and will receive $54,126,830 next season even though he will likely miss most of the season. Jrue Holiday, Kristaps Porzingis, and Derrick White will each make at least $28,000,000 next season. Without getting into all of the financial details, the Celtics are a "second apron" team, which means that they not only have a hefty luxury tax bill but they also face severe restrictions regarding permissible trades and free agent signings.

Thus, the Celtics face some tough and potentially very costly options. Keeping the core roster players will be expensive, is unlikely to yield a championship next season sans Tatum, and ties the franchise's hands in terms of adding depth. The Celtics could reduce their payroll and obtain some financial flexibility by trading Holiday and/or Porzingis. Bobby Marks floated the idea of the Celtics trading Brown to get out from under his massive contract, but it is difficult to imagine the Celtics breaking up the Tatum-Brown duo that has been so successful unless it becomes clear that Tatum will not return to form (in which case the Celtics could decide to do a full overhaul). 

The Celtics' situation highlight how fragile success is; if Tatum had stayed healthy and engineered a 10-0 run in the last three minutes of game four, the Celtics would have been two wins away from the Eastern Conference Finals--but instead they are out of the playoffs and facing a very uncertain future.

Labels: Boston Celtics, Jalen Brunson, Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, Karl-Anthony Towns, New York Knicks

posted by David Friedman @ 8:40 PM

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