Upcoming Road Games Will Test Cleveland’s Mettle
The Cleveland Cavaliers have lost two straight games after winning four games in a row and seven of their previous eight. This is understandably disconcerting to Cleveland faithful who are worried not only about the team's prospects this season but also about how the season's outcome might affect LeBron James' decision about whether to re-sign with the Cavs next summer. However, my newest CavsNews article points out that it is a fact of NBA life that even the best teams have some clunker losses in the course of an 82 game season and that championship success does not hinge on the outcome of one or two regular season games but rather on a team's overall trend and on whether that team is properly constructed to make a serious title run (6/19/15 edit: the link to CavsNews.com no longer works, so I have posted the original article below):
Before any
Cavs’ fans become overly concerned about Cleveland’s two game losing streak, it
is worth remembering that in the long 82 game NBA season even the eventual NBA
Champion struggles at times: almost exactly a year ago (December 9, 2008), the
L.A. Lakers lost 113-101 to the Sacramento Kings, the team that finished with
the worst record in the entire league (17-65). The 2007-08 NBA Champion Boston
Celtics displayed remarkable resolve and defensive consistency but even they
had some clunker losses: they dropped a 95-83 decision at home to the Charlotte
Bobcats and also lost both ends of a home and home set to the Washington
Wizards. Michael Jordan’s Chicago Bulls never had losses like that, though,
right? It is funny how the passage of time tends to make people forget things: Jordan’s 1995-96,
72-10 record-setting NBA Champions lost 104-72 to the New York Knicks--and
those Knicks were hardly a powerhouse, finishing 47-35. Those Bulls also lost
to the 21-61 Toronto Raptors, an expansion team. Both of those losses came
before the Bulls set the regular season record for wins, so it would be
incorrect to suggest that the Bulls had shut things down.
It is true
that a “bad” loss—a loss to a clearly inferior team—could potentially cost a
team in the battle for playoff positioning; last season after the Lakers
finished one game behind the Cavaliers in the overall standings they surely
rued that loss to the Kings but the Lakers ended up with homecourt advantage in
the NBA Finals anyway and went on to capture the title. One complicating factor
for the Cavaliers this year is that while the 2009 Lakers were the class of the
West—finishing 11 games ahead of the pack—it looks like the 2010 Eastern Conference
race will turn out to be a four team dogfight between the Celtics, Cavaliers,
Orlando Magic and Atlanta Hawks. In that regard it would be a significant
advantage to earn the East’s top seed not only because that team will play the
weakest team in the first round but because the top seed will face the fourth
seed in the second round while the number two and three teams face off in the
other bracket. Assuming that Orlando stays in front of Atlanta, if Cleveland
finishes first overall then the Cavs could potentially play Atlanta in the
second round with homecourt advantage and then only have to beat the winner of
a Boston-Orlando matchup to advance to the NBA Finals. The Hawks are a much
improved team but they have yet to demonstrate that they can win on the road in
the postseason, so the Cavs would surely prefer to face them in the second
round as opposed to possibly having to beat Orlando
and Boston in
consecutive series.
All of those
scenarios are purely hypothetical right now and there are two factors that are
even more important than the race for playoff positioning: the overall trend
for a team and the likelihood that a team is properly constructed to win a
championship.
As I discussed
a couple years ago, two important statistical indicators for possible
championship success are point differential and defensive field goal
percentage. Despite Cleveland’s slow start and the two recent losses, the Cavs
rank sixth in the NBA in point differential and are tied for second in
defensive field goal percentage; the Lakers ranked second and sixth
respectively in those categories last season en route to winning the
championship (the 2008 Celtics led the NBA in point differential and defensive
field goal percentage). The Cavs have some well known problems in screen/roll
coverage but they are still a top notch defensive team; just as significantly,
defense has always been a focal point for Cleveland Coach Mike Brown, so it is
likely that the Cavs will maintain or improve their rankings in these
categories as the season progresses.
The Phoenix
Suns are an excellent example of a team that is not properly constructed to win
a championship; since acquiring Steve Nash they have posted two 60-plus win
seasons and they won at least 54 games for four straight years but during that
time they never made it to the NBA Finals. Their run and gun style can catch a
lot of teams flat-footed during the regular season but in the playoffs there
are no back to back games and an opponent can zero in on nullifying a team’s
strengths and exposing a team’s weaknesses. When the Suns brought in Shaquille
O’Neal to provide a paint presence at both ends of the court, several Suns’
players chafed at the idea of playing a slow down, defensive-oriented style,
causing ABC commentator Jeff Van Gundy to declare that this
attitude is a “blight” on the careers of Nash, Amare Stoudemire and Grant Hill.
In contrast,
the Cavs are a defensive-minded team, so the coaching staff and players welcome
the addition of O’Neal because O’Neal can help them match up better against
Dwight Howard and other top flight big men. LeBron James is averaging his fewest
field goal attempts per game since his rookie season and his scoring average is
at a four year low but he is not complaining about the ball going into O’Neal
in the post; instead, James has increased his offensive efficiency (he is
posting career-high shooting percentages from the field, free throw line and
three point range) and he is averaging a career-high 8.2 apg, using his passing
skills to create easy scoring opportunities for O’Neal in the post and for
other Cavs when James or O’Neal are double-teamed.
Six of Cleveland’s next nine
games are on the road, including a stretch of four games in six days that
culminates in the much anticipated Christmas Day showdown with the Lakers,
owners of the best record in the NBA. Road trips challenge teams to execute
efficiently despite fatigue and provide an opportunity for teams to bond
together. This season will not rise or fall on the outcome of any one
particular regular season game—even though the game with the Lakers will
obviously be treated as if the fate of the world is at stake—but this upcoming
nine game run provides a good litmus test for the Cavaliers, particularly in
light of the fact that the Lakers will also play six of their next nine games
on the road. The Lakers’ schedule was frontloaded with a lot of home games, so
this stretch will be a big test for them. If the Cavaliers play well and the
Lakers stumble slightly then Cleveland
could move to the top of the NBA standings by the end of the month; conversely,
if the Lakers continue to roll and the Cavs fail to keep pace then the Lakers
could create some real separation. Either way, what happens in the next
two-three weeks will turn out to be a lot more meaningful than an overtime loss
to an energized, young Memphis team or a road setback versus a scrappy, well
rested Rockets team that generally beats Cleveland in Houston.
Labels: Cleveland Cavaliers, LeBron James, Shaquille O'Neal
posted by David Friedman @ 1:54 AM
2 Comments:
David, I used to love reading articles from my favorite team, the Lakers, but there haven't been any this year! Are you busy writing for another source? If so, let us know!
Aqzi:
Since the end of last season I have been posting much less original content in general, not just regarding the Lakers. I have been posting some of my older articles from various publications so that I can archive those articles on the right hand side of the front page.
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