20 Second Timeout

Trae Young is the Quintessential Washington Wizard

The Washington Wizards have not advanced past the second round of the playoffs since 1979, and they have qualified for the playoffs once since 2018, so it is not surprising that the player they have anointed as their franchise cornerstone has posted a 2-3 playoff series record in his eight year career. The Wizards sent Corey Kispert and C.J. McCollum to the Atlanta Hawks for four-time All-Star Trae Young, who last won a playoff series in 2021 and is thus the perfect player to lead the way for the Wizards to continue to avoid playoff success.

Travis Schlenk, who was Atlanta's general manager when the Hawks acquired Young in a draft day deal in 2018, is now the Wizards' senior vice president for player personnel. After the Hawks traded for Young in 2018, Schlenk declared, "We love his ability to pass the ball, to make other players better with his court vision. Obviously he gets a lot of notoriety for his long-range shooting, but I think his ability to pass the ball is what we really liked about him.'' Young made it clear in recent days that he wanted to be traded to Washington, and apparently Young's minimal postseason success did not diminish Schlenk's enthusiasm about Young's skills.

In Magic Rout Hawks and Warriors Edge Grizzlies to Clinch Playoff Berths, I summarized Young's career:

I have never understood or agreed with the "Ice Trae" hype; yes, he has hit some exciting shots and he posts gaudy statistics for points and assists, but he is an undersized, inefficient offensive player who puts up empty calorie numbers while not playing a lick of defense for a mediocre team. Young has a 2-3 career playoff series record in seven seasons, and his Hawks have not won a playoff series since 2021. The notion that he is a great clutch player is refuted by his woeful playoff career shooting (.402 from the field, including .297 from three point range). He has never shot better than .441 from the field in a playoff series, and he shot worse than .400 from the field in two of his five playoff series. 

Young's NBA regular season career averages of 25.2 ppg and 9.8 apg may look impressive, but he has shot better than .438 from the field for a season just once, and he has shot worse than .420 from the field in three seasons, including a career-low .411 in 76 games in 2024-25 and .415 in 10 games so far this season. Young ranks 12th in ABA/NBA regular season career scoring average but--much like the scoring numbers posted by Damian Lillard (13th) and James Harden (29th)--Young's individual production is disconnected from sustained team success. Young and Lillard have higher career scoring averages than five-time NBA champion Kobe Bryant and four-time NBA champion Stephen Curry, and Harden has a higher career scoring average than one-time NBA champion Giannis Antetokounmpo (who Harden foolishly mocked for supposedly lacking basketball skills), four-time NBA champion Shaquille O'Neal, one-time NBA champion Jayson Tatum, and one-time NBA champion Nikola Jokic. 

Young ranks third in ABA/NBA regular season assists average behind Magic Johnson and John Stockton, but no competent talent evaluator would take Young over--to name just a few championship-winning point guards--Oscar Robertson, Isiah Thomas, and Jason Kidd.

Statistics are meaningless without context. At one time, Stephon Marbury had logged more 20 ppg/8 apg seasons than any player other than Oscar Robertson, but no one other than the deluded, so-called "Starbury" ranks Marbury among the all-time great point guards. Young is the modern Marbury, with the main differences being that Marbury was stronger while Young is more apt to shoot long three pointers. Much of what I wrote about Marbury 18 years ago also applies to Young:

Stephon Marbury is no Mozart of the hardwood. Marbury possesses certain obvious physical talents--speed, ballhandling skills, shooting ability, good strength for his size--but he neither instinctively makes the right play nor has he--paraphrasing Mozart from the above story--sufficiently familiarized himself with the work of the great composers (playmaking guards) of the past. Mozart never had to think in conventional terms about becoming a composer because he understood how to apply his talent in a way that synthesized and then expanded upon the work of previous great composers. Marbury has tried to take the same "shortcut" but without the benefit of being a basketball visionary genius. Magic Johnson passed the ball the way that Mozart composed music; like Mozart, Magic did not have to think about all of the intermediary steps in his development. A great chess player once said that his philosophy was to do things as they must be done and then see what happens--but this presupposes having the vision/talent/training necessary to see what must be done; it used to be said of Fischer that he could throw a piece in the air and it would land on the best square. For Magic, that meant seeing that his teammate would become open before even that teammate realized it and then delivering the ball through the hapless defense in such a manner that the teammate could not only catch the pass but also attempt a shot that he had a good chance of making based on his skill set.

The construction of Marbury's game is the very opposite of such genius; Magic passed the ball to make plays and to win games, while Marbury passes the ball to get assists and thus to use statistics to "prove" his value and obtain a bigger contract. One might object that ultimately there is no difference between Magic accumulating assists and Marbury accumulating assists but to think such a thing--let alone say it--betrays a complete lack of understanding of the sport (and of genius). Magic passed the ball not with the goal of getting an assist for himself but because the pass was the right play in that given situation. Marbury passes the ball if and only if, in his estimation, the recipient is likely to immediately shoot and score, thus padding Marbury's assist total. One problem with this is all of the passes Marbury does not throw because he does not think that they will boost his statistics. Another problem with this is all of the bad shots Marbury then takes in lieu of making good passes. A third problem with this is that Marbury in general is not interested in doing anything on the court that does not make him look good on the stat sheet--matters such as defense or any action when he does not have the ball other than figuring out how to get the ball back in his hands so that he can resume padding his stats.

During his NBA career, Marbury has played for Minnesota, New Jersey, Phoenix and New York. Almost without fail, when he leaves a team that team performs better and when he joins a team that team performs worse. In layman's terms, he's a loser. He may be a wonderful human being--I don't know, I've never met the man--but as a point guard, as a basketball floor general, he is a loser: his teams lose and, what's worse, rather than accept responsibility for those losses he consistently offers excuses while at the same time providing ridiculous self-evaluations of his play. When Terrell Owens proclaims, "Who can make a play? I can!" you may be amused by his bravado or merely annoyed by it but you cannot deny the obvious fact that a player who ranks second in receiving touchdowns in NFL history can--and does--make  plays. However, when Stephon Marbury earnestly proclaims that he is the best point guard in the NBA all you can do is wonder if he is delusional and/or high.

The Hawks won more games than they lost twice in Young's eight seasons, peaking with a 41-31 record in the COVID-19-shortened 2020-21 season, and they have not posted a record better than .500 since 2021-22. During Young's eight seasons, the Hawks went 221-272 (.448 winning percentage) with Young and 46-48 (.489 winning percentage) without him--and the trend of playing better without Young has become more pronounced in the past three seasons, when the Hawks went 60-80 (.429 winning percentage) with Young and 33-29 (.532 winning percentage) without him.

The Hawks did well to unload Young's huge contract, poor shot selection, and non-existent defense, while the Wizards did nothing to change their reputation as one of the most ineptly run NBA franchises of the past 40 years.

Labels: Atlanta Hawks, C.J. McCollum, Corey Kispert, Stephon Marbury, Trae Young, Washington Wizards

posted by David Friedman @ 12:13 PM

4 comments

Notes About the 2025 Christmas Day Quintupleheader

This is the 18th consecutive year that the NBA had a Christmas Day quintupleheader, and the 78th year that the NBA played games on Christmas Day, a tradition that began during the league's second season. Christmas Day may be the unofficial start of the NBA season for casual fans, but the reality is that we are more than a third of the way through the NBA season; we have seen enough to separate the contenders from the pretenders, which is why my Christmas Day game recaps examine the big picture along with the small picture of the individual game outcomes.

The 2025 Christmas Day quintupleheader featured the reigning NBA champion Oklahoma City Thunder, the 2023 NBA champion Denver Nuggets, the 2022 NBA champion Golden State Warriors, and the 2020 NBA champion L.A. Lakers; the Thunder are intact and dominant, while the latter three teams have had significant roster overhauls since winning their championships, and of those three only the Nuggets look like legitimate contenders this season.   

Game One: New York Knicks 126, Cleveland Cavaliers 124

1) The New York Knicks extended their NBA record by playing on Christmas Day for the 58th time, a nod to the league's East Coast roots. The Knicks reached the NBA Finals three straight times (1951-53) in the league's early years before suffering a playoff drought from 1960-66. The franchise's golden years extended from 1969-74 when the team reached the Eastern Division Finals or Eastern Conference Finals six straight times, capturing two NBA titles (1970, 1973) with Willis Reed and Walt Frazier leading the way. The Knicks did not reach the Eastern Conference Finals again until 1993. They lost in the NBA Finals in 1994 and 1999, and then did not advance to the Eastern Conference Finals from 2001 until last season's appearance. 

This season is championship or bust for the Knicks, who replaced coach Tom Thibodeau with Mike Brown. The Knicks beat the San Antonio Spurs 124-113 to capture the 2025 NBA Cup, and they entered Christmas Day with the Eastern Conference's second best record. 

The Cleveland Cavaliers won their only NBA title in 2016 while making four straight NBA Finals appearances from 2015-18. They missed the playoffs for four straight years after LeBron James fled to L.A. before reaching the playoffs for each of the past three seasons. The Cavaliers posted the Eastern Conference's best record last season (64-18) before losing in the second round of the playoffs for the second consecutive year.

On paper, the Cavaliers have all of the necessary elements to make a championship run: an MVP-caliber player (Donovan Mitchell) paired with a multiple-time All-Star (Darius Garland) in a dynamic backcourt, a young and talented big man who has already made the All-NBA Second Team while winning the Defensive Player of the Year award (Evan Mobley), an athletic big man who has made the All-Star team as a rebounder and high percentage paint scorer (Jarrett Allen), and a deep, versatile supporting cast. However, the whole has consistently added up to less than the sum of the parts, and that should not be attributed just to injuries; the eye test indicates that the Cavaliers lack mental and physical toughness, demonstrated by the fact that they fold when they are challenged by good teams in the playoffs. The only way to refute that contention is to make a long playoff run, and if the Cavaliers could not do that after a 64-18 season then it will be a tall task for them to do it after a slow start that has them languishing in seventh place in the Eastern Conference.

2) The Cavaliers jumped out to an 18-3 lead by the 6:42 mark of the first quarter. Karl-Anthony Towns was on the bench after picking up two quick fouls--undisciplined fouling is a recurring problem for him--and the Knicks looked shell-shocked. The Knicks cut the margin to nine (20-11) on a rare six point possession: Lonzo Ball was assessed a flagrant foul for a reckless closeout as Jalen Brunson drained a three pointer, resulting in a Brunson free throw followed by a Mohamed Diawara bucket after the Knicks inbounded the ball. The Cavaliers seemed to regain control, though, and they led 38-23 at the end of the first quarter as Mitchell (12 points on 5-6 field goal shooting) and Garland (nine points on 3-4 field goal shooting) set the pace offensively while the Cavaliers held the Knicks to 9-24 (.375) field goal shooting. ESPN's Doris Burke mentioned a pearl of wisdom from Doug Collins that I often cite: some people focus on so-called "clutch" stats or fourth quarter numbers, but the NBA is often a first quarter league, because what happens in the first quarter sets the tone for the rest of the game (although that did not prove to be the case in this game due to New York's comeback/Cleveland's collapse).

Jordan Clarkson drilled two three pointers at the start of the second quarter to slash Cleveland's lead to 38-29, and that foreshadowed the Knicks outscoring the Cavaliers 37-20 in the second quarter to take a 60-58 halftime lead. Towns had six points and five rebounds in the second quarter after going scoreless with one rebound in the first quarter. Clarkson paced both teams with 11 second quarter points, while Mitchell did not score in the second quarter.

The Cavaliers reasserted control by outscoring the Knicks 38-24 in the third quarter to go up 96-84 heading into the final stanza. Jaylon Tyson led the way with 11 third quarter points on 5-6 field goal shooting off of the bench.

The Cavaliers led 103-86 early in the fourth quarter, and they were up 107-91 at the 8:11 mark of the fourth quarter after Garland dished to a cutting Tyson for a layup. They seemed to be in control--and then they collapsed. The fourth quarter boxscore is beautiful from the Knicks' point of view but brutal from the Cavaliers' perspective: the Knicks outscored the Cavaliers 42-28, outrebounded them 16-12, and shot .556 (15-27) from the field while holding the Cavaliers to .346 (9-26) field goal shooting. Brunson (13 points on 4-8 field goal shooting) and Tyler Kolek (11 points on 4-5 field goal shooting) did most of the scoring damage for the Knicks, while Mitchell Robinson had eight rebounds. Mitchell scored 15 points but shot just 4-11 from the field. No other Cavalier had more than four fourth quarter points.

Brunson has a track record of producing in the clutch, and his teammates follow his example. The Cavaliers rely on their talent, but when the going gets tough and they need defensive stops they fall apart, and hope that Mitchell's shot making will bail them out. That is not how championship caliber teams operate. 

3) Brunson finished with a game-high tying 34 points on 10-25 field goal shooting. Clarkson provided a huge boost with 25 points in 29 minutes off of the bench, and Kolek added 16 points in 25 minutes. Towns finished with 11 points and a game-high 14 rebounds, and Robinson had 13 rebounds in 17 scoreless minutes.

Mitchell had a game-high tying 34 points on 12-25 field goal shooting. Media driven narratives often link Cleveland's success to how frequently Mitchell shoots--suggesting that the Cavaliers are better off when he shoots less often--but he is not the problem: he plays hard and makes clutch shots; the problem is that the Cavaliers lack the necessary toughness to get stops and to complete defensive possessions with rebounds.

Garland added 20 points and a game-high 10 assists.  

Game Two: San Antonio Spurs 117, Oklahoma City Thunder 102

1) This is becoming one of the NBA's most intriguing rivalries, pitting the young reigning NBA champion Oklahoma City Thunder versus the even younger up and coming San Antonio Spurs; this will not be a full-fledged rivalry until the Spurs (1) make the playoffs and (2) face the Thunder in the playoffs, but the Spurs made their presence felt even before this game by beating the Thunder twice in 10 days after the Thunder started the season 24-1. The Thunder overwhelm most teams with their depth, defensive pressure, and quickness, but the Spurs effectively counter with their own depth, their ability to handle defensive pressure, and a horde of perimeter players who are able to contend with the Thunder's quickness. 

The Spurs are led by Victor Wembanyama, who has become more productive, efficient, and focused, slashing his three point field goal attempts per game from 8.8 last season to 4.1 this season; he is a force in the paint at both ends of the court, and the only question about him is if he will be durable enough to be a dominant player throughout the long regular season and then in a deep playoff run. Wembanyama is remarkably versatile, but it is worth noting--as ESPN's Jay Bilas did during the game telecast and as I did during Wembanyama's rookie season--that more than 40 years ago Ralph Sampson had similar talent in an era when big men were deployed in a much more restricted fashion than they are now.

The Thunder's early season success is remarkable not only considering that championship teams have to fight complacency, but also because 2025 All-Star Jalen Williams missed the season's first 19 games due to injury. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is the most statistically efficient 30-plus ppg scorer in NBA history, averaging 32.5 ppg with shooting splits of .557/.435/.884 while committing just 2.0 turnovers per game--and he also rebounds (4.8 rpg), passes (team-high 6.6 apg), and defends (1.5 spg). The Thunder rank first in points allowed, first in defensive field goal percentage, first in turnovers forced, second in steals, second in points scored, and third in field goal percentage. They rank 12th in rebounding after ranking 11th last season; they are not a physically overpowering team, but they are so dominant in most other categories that their relative lack of physical presence in the paint does not seem to matter.

2) The Spurs led 41-36 at the end of the first quarter. The Thunder usually win the possession game by forcing a high number of turnovers while committing few turnovers, but in the first quarter the Spurs had just two turnovers while shooting 15-21 (.714) from the field. The pace slowed a bit in the second quarter, but the Spurs again came out on top, 28-24, to lead 69-60 at halftime. De'Aaron Fox scored 21 first half points on 9-11 field goal shooting, Stephon Castle added 13 points on 5-8 field goal shooting, and Wembanyama came off of the bench (because he is still on a minutes restriction) to contribute nine points, six rebounds, and one blocked shot in 12 minutes. Gilgeous-Alexander led the Thunder with 16 points on 5-9 field goal shooting.

When the Thunder don't force turnovers they are not able to get easy scoring opportunities, which compels them to rely on their halfcourt offense--and their halfcourt offense can be balky, particularly when confronted with Wembanyama lurking as a mobile and long-armed rim protector. The Thunder had just five fast break points in the first half, and they shot 23-48 (.479) from the field. Conversely, the Spurs turned their stops into easy scoring opportunities, producing 15 fast break points in the first half.

The Spurs won the third quarter, 26-19, and led 95-80 heading into the fourth quarter. They committed just two turnovers while holding the Thunder to 7-26 (.269) field goal shooting with just two fast break points. No Spur scored more than five points, but seven Spurs scored during the third quarter.

The fourth quarter was more of the same: the Thunder had no fast break points and they shot just 7-21 (.333) from the field. The Thunder won the quarter, 23-22, but the Spurs led by double digits for most of the quarter--and never by less than nine points--while cruising to victory. Often, the Thunder's starters sit out the last part of the fourth quarter because the Thunder are winning comfortably, but in this game they sat out the final two minutes because the game was out of reach.

It cannot necessarily be said that the Spurs have created a blueprint to beat the Thunder, because a blueprint is a plan that can be used by anyone to build something; the Spurs' "blueprint" works because of the way that they integrate Wembanyama's talents with a corps of athletic perimeter players, so a team would have to have similar personnel to effectively utilize the "blueprint." Nevertheless, the Spurs have shown that the Thunder are not unbeatable, and that alone provides hope to other contending teams. Basketball, like many sports, is about matchups, and this matchup is clearly difficult for the Thunder.  

3) Fox scored a game-high 29 points on 12-19 field goal shooting. Castle contributed 19 points, a game-high seven assists, and four rebounds. Wembanyama finished with 19 points, a team-high 11 rebounds, and a +13 plus/minus number in 26 minutes. 

Gilgeous-Alexander led the Thunder with 22 points and he did not commit a turnover, but he shot just 7-19 from the field. Isaiah Hartenstein chipped in 13 points and a game-high tying 12 rebounds. Jalen Williams (12 points on 5-13 field goal shooting plus a team-high six assists), Alex Caruso (12 points on 3-13 field goal shooting), and Chet Holmgren (10 points, game-high tying 12 rebounds) all had quiet games by their standards.

Game Three: Golden State Warriors 126, Dallas Mavericks 116 

1) The Golden State Warriors began this season with high hopes after closing last season with a 21-7 sprint before losing to the Minnesota Timberwolves in the second round; the Warriors believed that they could have won that series if Stephen Curry had not suffered a series-ending injury in game one. This season, the Warriors entered Christmas Day with a 15-15 record that stamps them as a Play-In Tournament team, not a championship contender. Jimmy Butler's arrival late last season provided a boost, but the consistent pattern in his career is that there is a short shelf life before either he becomes disenchanted with his team or his team becomes disenchanted with him. Butler's numbers this season are solid but they are not translating into wins.

The Dallas Mavericks have been in turmoil since they traded franchise cornerstone Luka Doncic to the L.A. Lakers for Anthony Davis; the negative repercussions--on and off the court--from that baffling move led to the firing earlier this season of general manager Nico Harrison. The Mavericks lucked out in the 2025 Draft Lottery, receiving the number one overall pick. They cashed in that prize for Cooper Flagg, who needed just a few games to adjust to the NBA before emerging as a high level performer; he averaged 24.1 ppg, 6.2 rpg, and 4.5 apg in his first 10 games in December with shooting splits of .527/.308/.809, and Flagg broke LeBron James' record for being the youngest player to score 40 points in an NBA game.

The injury-riddled Mavericks started the season 3-10 before going 9-9 in their next 18 games. If Kyrie Irving--who has not yet played this season because he is rehabbing from the torn left ACL he suffered last season--and Anthony Davis are healthy and productive down the stretch then the Mavericks could reach the playoffs via the Play-In Tournament. 

2) Other than trailing 6-4 at the 10:05 mark of the first quarter and four ties later in that quarter, the Warriors led for the entire game, and they led by double digits for most of the second half. Davis scored three points in 11 minutes before being shut down with a groin injury; the Mavericks were +6 during those minutes, and -16 the rest of the way, which is the story of the post-Doncic Mavericks in microcosm: Davis has played well in brief spurts, but he is injured and out of action more often than he plays.

The Warriors shot just .444 (44-99) from the field, but they had 13 offensive rebounds while the Mavericks had just three, and the Warriors made 14 three pointers while holding the Mavericks (who do not shoot a lot of three pointers) to four three pointers. Those extra possessions and extra three pointers proved to be the difference.

3) Curry, who has generally not played well on Christmas Day, scored a team-high 23 points on 6-18 field goal shooting (including 2-10 from three point range). De'Anthony Melton scored 16 points off of the bench and had a game-best +19 plus/minus number in 24 minutes. Butler added 14 points, nine rebounds, and a game-high nine assists. Al Horford provided a boost with 14 points off of the bench in just 11 minutes. He shot 4-6 from three point range. Draymond Green contributed his usual triple single (seven points on 2-7 field goal shooting, five rebounds, three assists), he had more fouls (five) than field goals made, and he had a team-worst -9 plus/minus number. 

Flagg scored a game-high 27 points on 13-21 field goal shooting, and he had six rebounds plus a team-high five assists while committing just one turnover in 36 minutes. Flagg is 19 years old, but he plays with a mature poise that belies his youth. ESPN's Charles Barkley said that the Mavericks should trade Davis and Irving, and rebuild with Flagg as the franchise cornerstone; of course, the Mavericks would like to see how good their team is when that trio plays together before they dismantle their squad. Brandon Williams scored 26 points in 30 minutes off of the bench. 

Game Four: Houston Rockets 119, L.A. Lakers 96

1) The Houston Rockets lost four of their last five games prior to Christmas Day, including three overtime losses--two of which were against poor teams (New Orleans Pelicans and Sacramento Kings). The Rockets gave up at least 125 points in each of those four losses, and that skid dropped the Rockets to sixth in the Western Conference. Adding Kevin Durant has sparked the offense--the Rockets rank third in the league in scoring and fifth in field goal percentage after ranking 13th and 21st respectively in those categories last season--so if the Rockets can reestablish their typically strong defense then they will climb back toward the top of the Western Conference standings.

The L.A. Lakers entered Christmas Day in fourth place in the Western Conference, but back to back blowout losses to the L.A. Clippers (103-88) and Phoenix Suns (132-108) exposed the Lakers' poor defense, lack of overall team speed, and lack of hustle. The Lakers feasted on an easy early season schedule, but they rank 19th in points allowed and 26th in defensive field goal percentage, two indicators that they will struggle when they play good teams.

Luka Doncic has clearly surpassed LeBron James as the Lakers' best player, putting James in a position that he has never faced during his unprecedentedly long NBA career. Will he accept being the second option, or even sometimes the third option when Austin Reaves is cooking? James' success--both individually and from a team perspective--has been founded on his superior talent, not on his leadership and certainly not on being willing to accommodate any role short of being the man in charge and the focus of attention. James has a checkered history at best as a leader, including quitting in the playoffs at least twice as the best player on a championship contending team (versus Boston in the 2010 playoffs and versus Dallas in the 2011 NBA Finals). Even after James won two titles with the Miami Heat, his contentious departure from Miami inspired Pat Riley to refer to "No more smiling faces with hidden agendas," a clear reference to James' divisive impact on the team. 

James is a major part of the problem defensively, and because Doncic and Reaves are also subpar defenders it will be difficult to put all three players on the court at the same time, particularly against good teams. Will coach J.J. Redick bench James at key moments for a superior defender if Doncic and Reaves are carrying the load offensively? Considering that James and Redick were podcast buddies before the Lakers hired Redick, this will be a fascinating dynamic to watch--and, despite what Redick and his media friends insist, Redick is not a savvy or even above average NBA coach, which places the Lakers at a disadvantage.

According to Redick, there is no way that the Lakers' defensive shortcomings are his fault; he recently told media members that the Lakers practice all of the right rotations, so it is up to the players to do better. In short, he is a defensive genius, and his players are fools. The players must love how their coach stands up for them, and they'll love it even more during the inevitable losing streak that will happen once the Lakers start playing good teams. 

2) The Rockets exploited the Lakers' poor defense to race out to an 18-8 lead by the 6:48 mark of the first quarter, and they never looked back. By the end of the first quarter, the Rockets led 37-25, and James had a -19 plus/minus number, the worst by far of any player from either team. The Lakers won the second quarter, 28-26, to trail 63-53 at halftime, but the Rockets opened the third quarter with a 20-7 blitz to remove any doubt about the game's inevitable outcome. The Rockets' lead never dipped below 15 points the rest of the way. 

3) Amen Thompson scored a game-high 26 points on 12-19 field goal shooting, and he had a game-high tying +26 plus/minus number. Kevin Durant had 25 points on 8-14 field goal shooting while dishing a game-high nine assists, and amassing a game-high tying +26 plus/minus number. Jabari Smith Jr. scored 16 points and grabbed seven rebounds. Alperen Sengun added 14 points, a game-high 12 rebounds, and four assists as the Rockets outrebounded the Lakers 48-25. 

Doncic led the Lakers with 25 points, seven assists, and a team-high tying five rebounds; when your point guard is your leading rebounder with five rebounds, that is not good. James finished with 18 points, five assists, two rebounds, and a game-worst -33 plus/minus number. James and starting center Deandre Ayton had four rebounds in a combined 69 minutes, less than reserve Jarred Vanderbilt had (five) in 26 minutes. Reaves scored 12 points in 15 minutes before being sidelined by a calf injury.

Game Five: Denver Nuggets 142, Minnesota Timberwolves 138, OT

1) Nikola Jokic continues to move up in the all-time rankings. He recently broke Kareem Abdul-Jabbar's record for career assists by a center (5660), and after this game he is two triple doubles away from tying Oscar Robertson (181) for second on the career list behind Russell Westbrook (207). Jokic has 15 triple doubles in 30 games this season, and in nine of those games he had a triple double before the end of the third quarter.

2) Prior to this game, the Denver Nuggets beat the Minnesota Timberwolves by double digits in each of their first two games this season, which is noteworthy because the Timberwolves have been the better team for the past two seasons.

In the 2024 playoffs, the Timberwolves dethroned the reigning NBA champion Nuggets by using a large lineup featuring Karl-Anthony Towns, Rudy Gobert, and Naz Reid; the Timberwolves overcame a 20 point third quarter deficit to win game seven in Denver. After losing to the Dallas Mavericks in the 2024 Western Conference Finals, the Timberwolves traded Towns to New York for Julius Randle. The Timberwolves lost to the Oklahoma City Thunder in the 2025 Western Conference Finals. The Timberwolves entered Christmas Day in fifth place in the Western Conference, a disappointing position for a team with championship aspirations.

The Nuggets lost in the second round of the playoffs in each of the two seasons after winning the 2023 NBA title. They entered Christmas Day in third place in the Western Conference behind the Oklahoma City Thunder and the surging San Antonio Spurs. 

3) This game featured a sensational performance by Jokic, and big runs by both teams. Jokic erupted for 18 points, five rebounds, four assists, and two blocked shots in the first quarter, but the Nuggets only led 32-29 because Anthony Edwards countered with 14 points and three steals.

The Timberwolves used a 17-0 run in a little over five minutes to take a 46-38 second quarter lead, but the Nuggets closed the second quarter with a 19-9 run to end the half with a 57-55 lead.

The Nuggets opened the third quarter with a 22-8 burst extend their lead to 79-63. The Timberwolves countered with a 7-0 run in a little over a minute, but the Nuggets pulled away again, and led 92-78 entering the fourth quarter. Jokic had 32 points, 14 rebounds, 13 assists, and two blocked shots in 31 minutes through the first three quarters while shooting 10-13 from the field and 10-10 from the free throw line.

Non-Jokic minutes have been troublesome for the Nuggets in recent years--and were disastrous in the second quarter of this game--but the Nuggets held firm in the fourth quarter without Jokic and led 101-89 when Jokic rejoined the fray at the 6:53 mark. 

In an unexpected twist, the Timberwolves erased the Nuggets' lead with Jokic on the court. Jokic missed three straight shots, and the Timberwolves converted those empty possessions into points to pull within 106-102 before Jokic answered with a step back jumper. The Timberwolves called a timeout, and then Edwards drained a three pointer to cut Denver's lead to 108-105. After a Jamal Murray miss, Edwards' strong drive pulled the Timberwolves to within one point, but Murray hit a three pointer to give the Nuggets a 111-107 lead. Spencer Jones' putback put the Nuggets ahead 113-107 before Murray fouled a triple-teamed Edwards while Edwards was attempting a three pointer. Edwards made all three free throws. The Timberwolves converted a Murray turnover into a Jaden McDaniels fast break layup to cut the margin to 113-112 with 4.8 seconds remaining. Jokic hit two free throws with 3.6 seconds left, and the Timberwolves took their last timeout to set up their final shot--an Edwards turnaround three pointer from the left baseline to tie the score at 115 with 1.1 seconds left! Jokic's full court heave missed the mark, sending the game to what turned out to be a frenetic overtime.

Edwards opened the overtime with four straight points--a bank shot followed by two free throws--and then Donte DiVincenzo made two free throws to put the Timberwolves up, 121-115. Edwards delivered what seemed to be a dagger three pointer to give the Timberwolves their biggest lead of the game, 124-115. Jokic and Tim Hardaway Jr. each hit a three pointer to pull the Nuggets to within 124-121, followed by Julius Randle making two free throws. Jokic's three pointer from the right wing trimmed the Timberwolves' lead to 126-124, and then he tied the game with a one-handed runner in the paint. Jokic was called for a loose ball fall on Rudy Gobert, but the Nuggets won a coach's challenge, resulting in Gobert being called for his sixth foul and Jokic shooting two free throws. Jokic made both to give the Nuggets a 128-126 lead before Edwards' drive tied the score again. Before you could blink, Murray's three pointer handed the Nuggets their biggest lead yet in the overtime, 131-128. A loose ball foul sent Jokic to the free throw line, but he only made one out of two. Edwards answered with a two-handed dunk, but Edwards was called for a delay of game technical foul. Jokic made the free throw to put the Nuggets up 133-130. After a loose ball foul, Edwards got a second technical foul (and automatic ejection), resulting in Murray splitting a pair of free throws to put the Nuggets ahead 134-130. Jokic made both loose ball foul free throws, and McDaniels immediately answered with a three pointer to trim the margin to 136-133. Peyton Watson made two free throws, which DiVincenzo neutralized with a layup. Jokic reestablished a five point lead, 140-135, by making two free throws. Reckless fouling almost cost the Nuggets, as Spencer Jones fouled Bones Hyland behind the three point line. Hyland only made one free throw, inexplicably missing the third intentionally but failing to hit the rim on the attempt, thus giving possession to Denver. Jokic made two free throws, and then Hyland closed out the scoring with a layup. 

The Nuggets won despite being without the services of three injured starters: Aaron Gordon, Cam Johnson, and Christian Braun.

4) Jokic finished with game-high totals in points (56), rebounds (16) and assists (15) while shooting 15-21 from the field and 22-23 from the free throw line. His 18 overtime points broke Stephen Curry’s record (17, set in 2016). Murray had 35 points on 12-32 field goal shooting, and he dished for 10 assists.

Edwards led the Timberwolves with 44 points on 14-25 field goal shooting. Randle added 32 points, seven rebounds, and six assists. Gobert contributed nine points, a team-high 12 rebounds, and a game-high six blocked shots while amassing a game-best +18 plus/minus number.  

Analysis of Previous Christmas Day Quintupleheaders:

Notes About the 2024 Christmas Day Quintupleheader (2024)

Notes About the 2023 Christmas Day Quintupleheader (2023)

Notes About the 2022 Christmas Day Quintupleheader (2022)

Notes About the 2021 Christmas Day Quintupleheader (2021)

Notes About the 2020 Christmas Day Quintupleheader (2020)

Notes About the 2019 Christmas Day Quintupleheader (2019)

Several Stars Shine During Christmas Day Quintupleheader (2018)

Christmas Day Quintupleheader Recap (2012)

Comments and Notes About the Christmas Day Quintupleheader (2011)

Thoughts and Observations About the Christmas Day Quintupleheader (2010)

Labels: Cleveland Cavaliers, Dallas Mavericks, Denver Nuggets, Golden State, Houston Rockets, L.A. Lakers, Minnesota Timberwolves, New York Knicks, Oklahoma City Thunder, San Antonio Spurs

posted by David Friedman @ 1:52 AM

2 comments

Knicks Rebound in Second Half, Top Spurs 124-113 to Capture NBA Cup

The New York Knicks outrebounded the San Antonio Spurs 59-42--including 34-18 in the second half--en route to winning the NBA Cup Championship Game, 124-113. OG Anunoby scored a game-high 28 points on 10-17 field goal shooting, and he also grabbed nine rebounds. Jalen Brunson--who received the NBA Cup MVP--had a quiet game by his lofty standards, finishing with 25 points on 11-27 field goal shooting plus a team-high eight assists as he amassed a game-high tying +15 plus/minus number. Karl-Anthony Towns added 16 points and 11 rebounds. The Knicks would not have won without strong performances by bench players Jordan Clarkson (15 points, game-high tying +15 plus/minus number), Tyler Kolek (14 points, five assists, five rebounds, +14 plus/minus number), and Mitchell Robinson (four points, game-high 15 rebounds, +9 plus/minus number). 

Dylan Harper led the Spurs with 21 points off of the bench, and he also had a team-high tying seven rebounds. Victor Wembanyama, playing in just his second game after missing 12 games due to injury, had 18 points, six rebounds, and two blocked shots in 25 minutes off of the bench, but he had a game-worst -18 plus/minus number. Wembanyama has said that he modeled his game after several French players--including Tony Parker and Boris Diaw--and that his NBA role model is Russell Westbrook; his versatility is an asset, but in this game the Spurs would have benefited most if he had been a dominant rebounder instead of tying for third on his team in that category. De'Aaron Fox added 16 points and nine assists, but he shot just 5-13 from the field. Stephon Castle contributed 15 points, a game-high 12 assists, and seven rebounds while committing only two turnovers, but he also shot poorly from the field (5-15). The Spurs lost because of inefficient offense combined with an inability to complete defensive possessions with rebounds; they shot just .414 (41-99) from the field, and they barely grabbed half of the available defensive rebounds, controlling 24 defensive rebounds while giving up 23 offensive rebounds.

The Spurs never trailed in the first half, but they also never led by more than seven points before settling for a 61-59 halftime edge. Devin Vassell paced the Spurs with 12 first half points before going scoreless in the second half. Luke Kornet, who started at center because Wembanyama is still playing restricted minutes, had 10 first half points and a +9 plus minus number in 14 minutes before scoring just four points in 10 second half minutes. Wembanyama had a gaudy +21 plus/minus number in San Antonio's 111-109 NBA Cup semifinals win versus the Oklahoma City Thunder, but he only found his footing in spurts in this game, and he had a quiet first half (four points on 2-6 field goal shooting, four rebounds, -7 plus/minus number). Anunoby (20 first half points) and Brunson (15 first half points) did most of the damage for the Knicks in the first 24 minutes. 

Castle's free throw at the 5:50 mark of the third quarter pushed the Spurs' lead to 82-71, but the Knicks trimmed the deficit to 94-89 by the end of the stanza before taking their first lead of the game, 97-94, on Clarkson's three pointer with 10:27 remaining in the fourth quarter. That shot capped off a 10-0 Knicks'  run spanning the end of the third quarter and the beginning of the fourth quarter. The Knicks led the rest of the way, but did not enjoy a double digit advantage until Kolek made a pair of free throws to put them up 120-110 with just 33.4 seconds left. 

I picked the Knicks to win the Eastern Conference, but I underestimated the Knicks in the NBA Cup Championship Game, picking the Spurs to beat the Knicks in a close contest. Perhaps I fell victim to recency bias after watching the Spurs end the Thunder's 16 game winning streak, but I think that there should be high expectations for the Spurs. In my 2025-26 Western Conference Preview, I wrote, "There are no more excuses for missing the playoffs. The Spurs have a generational talent--the 2024 NBA Rookie of the Year Victor Wembanyama--plus they have veteran former All-Star guard De'Aaron Fox, and they also have 2025 NBA Rookie of the Year Stephon Castle." 

Robinson seized 10 offensive rebounds, including six in the fourth quarter when the Knicks took control of the game. Despite all of the talk about "range shooting" and "gravity," defense and rebounding are still essential elements for winning basketball games. Amazon Prime's announcing crew of Ian Eagle, Dwyane Wade, and Stan Van Gundy acknowledged Robinson's impact and they also praised Kolek's contributions as a scorer, playmaker, and secondary ballhandler who took pressure off of Brunson. After Brunson received the MVP trophy, he mentioned that the team win and the individual award would not have been possible without the contributions from OG Anunoby, Tyler Kolek, Jordan Clarkson, and Mitchell Robinson. Anunoby and Robinson provided elite defense and rebounding, while Kolek and Clarkson contributed supplementary scoring. 

This was a competitive and entertaining NBA game, but I still have mixed feelings about the NBA Cup because it should not be necessary to provide over $500,000 per player in bonus money to extract maximum effort and focus from these very highly paid professionals. It also is not necessary to keep telling fans how great the NBA Cup is as a concept and how well-played the NBA Cup games have been; fans can see with their own eyes, and make their own judgments.

Van Gundy is very knowledgeable about basketball, but it has become difficult to listen to him call a game because of his not so thinly veiled political commentary that no one requested or needs (regardless of whether you agree or disagree with him), and because of bombastic statements such as, "If you're not a fan of the NBA Cup then you just don't like basketball." Not only is that a self-serving statement--he is being paid by the NBA to like and promote the NBA Cup--but it is a ridiculous statement. I have loved basketball for my whole life, and I have very good, logical reasons for not being a fan of the NBA Cup. The NBA Cup quarterfinals, semifinals, and Championship Game were competitive, but by putting extra emphasis on these games--and by offering bonus money for these games--the NBA is implicitly saying that non-NBA Cup games are not as important. It is strange for the NBA to devalue the vast majority of its regular season games, and to admit that the league's multimillionaire players will not play hard without being offered more money on top of the lavish, guaranteed sums that they are already paid.

To the extent that NBA Cup games are better than regular season NBA games, that could be interpreted as an indictment of the attitude that players have toward the regular season more than as a recommendation for the NBA Cup. A cynic could suggest that if the players' effort and attention is affected to this extent by money then perhaps the NBA should get rid of guaranteed contracts and directly connect compensation to performance; most of us who have real world jobs outside of the fantasy worlds of sports/entertainment are evaluated every year based on our performance, and our compensation is impacted by how well we perform. I understand that due to the nature of collective bargaining there is a 0.00% chance that guaranteed contracts will be eliminated, but Van Gundy's relentless politicking about the NBA Cup's greatness did not resonate with me at all. 

Van Gundy is at his best when he analyzes team strategy and the skill sets of individual players, and he is at his worst when he ventures beyond his expertise to become a shill for the NBA. The excellent Amazon Prime studio crew of Taylor Rooks, Dirk Nowitzki, Steve Nash, Blake Griffin, and Udonis Haslem interviewed NBA Commissioner Adam Silver before the game, and it was interesting to hear Silver criticize unnamed commentators who he claimed talk badly about the NBA instead of just analyzing the games; it does not take a conspiracy theorist to figure out that he was most likely referring to Charles Barkley and Shaquille O'Neal, not does it take a conspiracy theorist to contrast Van Gundy's gushing praise for the NBA Cup and Adam Silver with the way that the NBA managed to largely remove the very popular--and very candid--NBA on TNT crew from the regular broadcast rotation. As the kids would say, Van Gundy understands the assignment; he is keenly aware of Silver's views about both politics and about the league. I did not agree with everything that the NBA on TNT guys said--or sometimes failed to say--about basketball and about social issues, but I always felt that they were being honest as opposed to reciting the company line.

The NBA and its media partners promote the NBA Cup as if it is very significant, but the NBA Cup Championship Game is not included in the regular season standings, nor does it not confer any advantage for playoff seeding, and the game's statistics do not officially count. The NBA Cup Championship Game is all about the money; that does not change the fact that this particular game was competitive most of the way, but it should be noted that each NBA Cup Championship Game has been decided by double digits: in 2023 the L.A. Lakers dominated the Indiana Pacers, 123-109, and in 2024 the Milwaukee Bucks routed the Oklahoma City Thunder, 97-81. We have not come close to seeing an NBA Cup Championship Game being decided on a buzzer beater.

I enjoyed watching and writing about the NBA Cup games, but I would enjoy the NBA even more if the league got rid of tanking and load management while also figuring out how to have a competitive, entertaining All-Star Game instead of the travesty that the NBA All-Star Game has become for the past several years.

Labels: Dylan Harper, Jalen Brunson, Mitchell Robinson, New York Knicks, OG Anunoby, San Antonio Spurs, Stephon Castle, Tyler Kolek, Victor Wembanyama

posted by David Friedman @ 2:20 AM

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Knicks Make Magic Disappear and Spurs Silence Thunder in NBA Cup Semifinals

The New York Knicks defeated the Orlando Magic 132-120 to reach the NBA Cup Championship Game, which will be played next Tuesday night in Las Vegas. Jalen Brunson authored yet another virtuoso performance, scoring a game-high 40 points on 16-27 field goal shooting while also dishing for a game-high eight assists and committing just two turnovers in 39 minutes. Brunson has now scored at least 30 points in 88 regular season games as a Knick, surpassing Hall of Fame guard Richie Guerin for third place in franchise history. Carmelo Anthony's second place total (108) is well within reach, but it will take Brunson a while to top Patrick Ewing (203). Karl-Anthony Towns (29 points on 9-11 field goal shooting, eight rebounds) and OG Anunoby (24 points, six rebounds, four assists, three steals) also had strong games as all five New York starters scored in double figures. Former New York coach Tom Thibodeau was criticized for allegedly playing his starters for too many minutes, but in this game--with NBA Cup bonus money on the line--current New York coach Mike Brown played four of New York's five starters at least 37 minutes, while the banged up Josh Hart battled through 31 minutes. Mitchell Robinson only scored five points, but he was a force in the paint, compiling a game-high nine rebounds and a game-high four blocked shots in just 17 minutes off of the bench. 

Jalen Suggs led the Magic with 26 points on 10-16 field goal shooting, but he had 25 of those points in the first half before injuring his left hip in the third quarter. He limped through nine scoreless third quarter minutes and scored just one point in a cameo appearance in the fourth quarter before the Magic shut him down. Suggs, who had a team-high +8 plus/minus number, will be reevaluated after the Magic return to Orlando from Las Vegas. Paolo Banchero added 25 points and eight rebounds, but he shot 0-7 from three point range and he committed a game-high five turnovers; that is a lot of empty possessions created by the team's best player. Banchero is a strong and talented player who should must improve his decision making in general and his shot selection in particular. Desmond Bane scored a game-high 37 points when Orlando beat Miami 117-108 in an NBA Cup quarterfinal game, but he had just 18 points on 7-17 field goal shooting versus the Knicks. 

This game was physical and well-contested but also very fast-paced, which resulted in the high scoring totals for both teams. Each team had 41 rebounds, but the Knicks shot .607 (51-84) from the field while holding the Magic to .464 (45-97) field goal shooting. The Magic led by as much as six in the first quarter, but the Knicks rallied to take a 71-64 halftime edge. The third quarter featured two lead changes and four ties, but the Knicks did not trail in the fourth quarter. 

The Magic have a faster paced, more efficient offense than they did last season, but the goal is not to lose while scoring 120 points; the Magic pride themselves on their defense, so this performance is very disappointing, and below their usual standard. Perhaps the Magic would have fared better if the injured Franz Wagner had been able to play and if Suggs had not gotten injured during the game, but defense is about effort and execution, not just personnel. If the Magic are at full strength during the playoffs, a New York-Orlando playoff series could be very competitive and interesting.

In the second game of Amazon Prime's NBA Cup semifinals doubleheader, the San Antonio Spurs rallied from a 16 point second quarter deficit to stun the Oklahoma City Thunder 111-109, ending the Thunder's 16 game winning streak and handing the 2025 NBA champions just their second loss this season. Victor Wembanyama dominated the game despite a minutes restriction that limited him to 21 minutes off of the bench. He scored 22 points on 6-11 field goal shooting and 9-12 free throw shooting while grabbing a game-high tying nine rebounds, notching a game-high two blocked shots, and posting a gaudy team-high +21 plus/minus number. This was his first game back after missing the last 12 games because of a left calf injury. The Spurs went 9-3 without Wembanyama, but in this game they looked vastly superior with him on the court compared to when he was not on the court. Devin Vassell scored a team-high 23 points while collecting five rebounds and four assists, while De'Aaron Fox and Stephon Castle scored 22 points each.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander scored a game-high 29 points on 12-23 field goal shooting, but his teammates managed to produce just 80 points on 26-69 (.377) field goal shooting as the Thunder's vaunted strength in numbers vanished. The Spurs forced Gilgeous-Alexander to play in a crowd, and they denied him access to his favorite midrange areas. He responded by willingly making the right passes, but his teammates did not make enough shots. Jalen Williams (17 points on 5-16 field goal shooting) and Chet Holmgren (17 points on 3-8 field goal shooting) both had subpar games. Isaiah Hartenstein was solid (10 points on 5-9 field goal shooting, game-high tying nine rebounds), but the Thunder player who performed the best other than Gilgeous-Alexander was Alex Caruso, who had 11 points, eight rebounds, three assists, three steals, and no turnovers in 24 minutes off of the bench. Caruso had a game-high +22 plus/minus number, including +6 in a tightly contested fourth quarter.

The Spurs won the rebounding battle 52-51, and they only lost points in the paint 44-40. In a game where the outcome hung in the balance until the final buzzer sounded, the best thing that the Spurs did was remain composed through both the highs and the lows; the Thunder attack their opponents in aggressive waves of relentless pressure defense leading to high percentage shots, but the Spurs weathered each storm after a bumpy first quarter. The Thunder do not have many weaknesses or vulnerabilities, but the best recipe to beat them involves (1) controlling the pace, (2) limiting turnovers, and (3) attacking the paint. Controlling the pace does not necessarily mean only playing fast or only playing slow, but rather not letting the Thunder speed you up to force turnovers and bad shots; the Spurs did a great job of pushing the ball when they had an advantage in numbers and running a half court offense when they did not have an advantage in numbers. 

When the Thunder led 14-4 at the 8:18 mark of the first quarter, it seemed like this would be yet another double digit Thunder win with Gilgeous-Alexander watching the fourth quarter relaxing on the bench. The Spurs stabilized themselves for the rest of the first quarter, and even though they did not cut into the margin they also did not plummet into a 20 point deficit. The Thunder led 31-20 heading into the second quarter. Wembanyama did not play at all in the first quarter, and it soon became evident just how significant his absence was; he had five points and five rebounds in seven minutes in the second quarter, but his +20 plus/minus number just hinted at his impact at both ends of the court. The Spurs trimmed the lead to 33-29 at the 8:35 mark with Wembanyama in the game, but after he took a break the Thunder surged to a 47-31 lead with 3:52 left before Wembanyama returned. The Spurs closed the second quarter with a 15-2 run with Wembanyama seemingly everywhere at once at both ends of the court as he altered shots on defense and forced the Thunder to account for his presence on offense. 

The Spurs took their first lead of the game, 57-56, on a Fox fast break drive at the 8:45 mark of the third quarter. Neither team led by more than six points the rest of the way. One might expect that a championship team would have the advantage in a nip and tuck game versus a young and inexperienced team, but that was not the case in this game. Wembanyama's jump shot with 2:32 remaining in the fourth quarter put the Spurs up 102-101, and they never trailed again; down the stretch, the Spurs played excellent defense and they made enough free throws to hold off the Thunder.  

In my December 3 NBA Cup article, I correctly picked each of the four quarterfinal game winners before picking Orlando and Oklahoma City as semifinal game winners; since I was wrong about both semifinal game winners it is time for me to make a new prediction about the NBA Cup Championship Game.

It does not make much sense to call Knicks versus Spurs a rematch of the 1999 NBA Finals because many of the participants in the upcoming 2025 NBA Cup Championship Game were not even born yet in 1999. More relevant is that the Knicks reached the 2025 Eastern Conference Finals while the Spurs missed the playoffs; the Knicks began this season with championship aspirations while the Spurs entered this season intent on proving that they can be the first San Antonio team to qualify for postseason play since 2019. Both teams are 18-7 now, and both teams are on the upswing, with the Knicks 9-1 in their last 10 games and the Spurs 7-3 in their last 10 games (nine of which they played without Wembanyama). 

The matchups are fascinating. Will the Knicks try to muscle Wembanyama, or will they try to harass him by swarming him with pesky small defenders? How will the Spurs try to exploit Brunson's subpar defense, and how will the Knicks try to hide Brunson on that side of the court? The coaches who will make those decisions are Mitch Johnson, who is in his first full season at the helm in San Antonio, and Mike Brown, who led the Cleveland Cavaliers to the 2007 NBA Finals and has won four NBA titles as an assistant coach, including one with the Spurs (2003) and three with the Golden State Warriors (2017-18, 2022). Johnson's father John was the starting small forward for Seattle's 1979 NBA championship team. Brown has the edge on paper by virtue of his long resume full of NBA championships and NBA Finals appearances, but Johnson has shown a lot of promise in his short time on the job while presiding over the development of not only Wembanyama but also other young players on the roster. 

If this were a seven game series, I would pick the Knicks, much like I would have picked them over the Magic in a series but thought that the Magic would prevail in a one game winner take all scenario (never mind that I ended up being wrong about that!). Wembanyama has not proven that he can stay healthy for a whole season, let alone dominate during an extended playoff run--but he has shown that in just 21 minutes he can be a force even against the dominant Oklahoma City Thunder, so I will pick the Spurs to win a game that I expect (and hope) will be as closely contested and well-played as their victory over the Thunder.

Labels: Jalen Brunson, Jalen Suggs, Karl-Anthony Towns, New York Knicks, Oklahoma City Thunder, Orlando Magic, San Antonio Spurs, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Victor Wembanyama

posted by David Friedman @ 2:49 AM

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Russell Westbrook's Unreported Resurgence

You would not know this from following many of the mainstream NBA media outlets, but 37 year old Russell Westbrook is having an excellent, resurgent season following an offseason during which it appears that the only offer he received was a non-guaranteed, one year veteran minimum deal from the Sacramento Kings; that is the type of contract given to a fringe player whose ability to perform as a rotation player at the NBA level is questionable at best, not to a future Hall of Famer who is still a very good player. 

Westbrook is averaging 14.0 ppg, 7.2 apg, and 6.8 rpg in 25 games this season, including 15.1 ppg, 7.7 apg, and 7.6 rpg in 19 starts. It is not his fault that Sacramento's highest paid and highest profile players are terminally allergic to playing good defense, nor is it his fault that the Kings appear to be outmatched at coach more often than not in the wake of last season's decision to fire two-time NBA Coach of the Year Mike Brown.

Instead of stories documenting how well the unwanted Westbrook is playing at this advanced stage of his career, we are inundated with hot takes about how terrible it is that the L.A. Clippers cut the disgruntled and unproductive Chris Paul. 

Westbrook being overlooked and underrated is nothing new. In 2014, I discussed Westbrook's ascent to MVP caliber status and noted that he seemed poised to inherit Kobe Bryant's dual status as "best guard in the NBA and vastly underrated superstar." Westbrook has been very underrated for most of his NBA career, with the exception of the 2016-17 season, when the voters correctly selected him as the regular season MVP after he became the first player since Oscar Robertson to average a triple double for an entire season. Westbrook averaged a triple double in each of the next two seasons, but he slipped to fifth and then 10th in MVP voting. By the time that Westbrook averaged a triple double in a season for the fourth time (2020-2021), he was no longer a top 10 MVP finisher, an All-NBA Team member, or even an All-Star. Only two other players have averaged a triple double in a season: Oscar Robertson (1961-62) and Nikola Jokic (2024-25). In his triple double season, Robertson finished third in MVP voting (behind fellow Pantheon members Bill Russell and Wilt Chamberlain), earned an All-NBA First Team selection, and made the All-Star team, while Jokic finished second in MVP voting, earned All-NBA First Team honors, and made the All-Star team in his triple double season. Robertson averaged an aggregate triple double during the first five seasons of his NBA career, and in that time span he never finished lower than fifth in MVP voting while making the All-NBA First Team and the All-Star team in each of those seasons.

Media members have created a distorted narrative in which triple doubles are significant unless they are posted by Russell Westbrook. Westbrook became the all-time triple double leader in 2021, and he has normalized all-around greatness to the extent that he is punished for being a statistical unicorn. Every other NBA player who has a unique form of greatness is praised for that uniqueness--think of Stephen Curry's record-breaking three point shooting--but Westbrook's greatness is not only dismissed; it is often mocked.  

Labels: Chris Paul, Kobe Bryant, Nikola Jokic, Oscar Robertson, Russell Westbrook, Sacramento Kings

posted by David Friedman @ 7:07 PM

2 comments

Oklahoma City and San Antonio Roll to the NBA Cup Semifinals

The Oklahoma City Thunder jumped out to a 36-16 first quarter lead versus the Phoenix Suns before cruising to a 138-89 win in their NBA Cup quarterfinals game. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander led the way with game-high totals in points (28 on 11-15 field goal shooting) and assists (eight) but he had plenty of help: Chet Holmgren had 24 points on 9-13 field goal shooting plus a game-high eight rebounds, Jalen Williams contributed 15 points, five rebounds, and five assists, and the Thunder's bench players combined to outscore the Suns' starters, 50-41. The Thunder led 74-48 at halftime and 110-72 after the third quarter, so--as has often been the case this season--Gilgeous-Alexander did not play in the fourth quarter; he is averaging almost a point per minute this season while barely playing 33 mpg, so it is fair to wonder how much he could score if he played 40 mpg and his team needed him to score a lot in the fourth quarter. Dillon Brooks led the Suns with 16 points, but he shot just 4-16 from the field.

The Thunder shot .591 (52-88) from the field while holding the Suns to .393 field goal shooting (33-84) with 20 turnovers. The Suns were missing the injured Devin Booker, but he could have scored 30 points and the Thunder still would have won going away; more than a fourth of the NBA season is over and the Suns seem to be at least a solid team, but the way that the Thunder dismantled them looked like the Dream Team (and there is only one Dream Team) dominating outclassed squads in the 1992 Olympics.

The game's only mild drama or suspense happened at the 5:18 mark of the third quarter when Phoenix guard Grayson Allen elbowed Holmgren in the chest and shoved Holmgren to the ground. Holmgren and other Thunder players stood their ground but did not do anything crazy. The referees assessed a Flagrant Foul 2 to Allen, meaning that Allen was automatically ejected. No Thunder players received fouls or technical fouls on the play; that is a level of individual and collective self-discipline that is not seen often enough in the NBA and is foreign to Draymond Green, whose lack of self-discipline and inability to control his anger is embarrassing for him, his team, and the league. The Thunder are focused on playing unselfish, winning basketball without individual agendas, drama, or nonsense, and that is very refreshing to see in a league that has too many individual agendas and too much drama/nonsense.

The Thunder matched the best 25 game start--24-1--in NBA history. Much like the only two teams in NBA history that won at least 70 regular season games--the 1995-96 Chicago Bulls (72-10) and the 2015-16 Golden State Warriors (73-9)--the Thunder bring a competitive attitude to every game. The Thunder do not make excuses regarding injuries or playing back to back games or anything else. It is too soon to rank them among the greatest teams of all-time, but it is not too soon to wonder how high they may eventually rank and what kinds of records they may set if they are blessed with reasonable health.

In the second NBA Cup Western Conference quarterfinals matchup, the L.A. Lakers enjoyed homecourt advantage versus the San Antonio Spurs and quickly took a 13-7 first quarter lead, but by the end of the first quarter the Spurs were up 39-30. The Spurs never trailed the rest of the way, and they enjoyed a double digit advantage for the entire second half, feasting on the Lakers' slow-footed, disinterested defense; the Lakers look like the kind of all-offense, no-defense team that loses in the first round of the playoffs, which is the fate that I predicted for them in my Western Conference Preview. Stephon Castle led the Spurs in scoring (30 points), rebounding (10), and assists (six). De'Aaron Fox added 20 points. Luka Doncic poured in a game-high 35 points for the Lakers while dishing for a game-high tying eight assists. Marcus Smart provided a spark off of the bench with 26 points on 9-16 field goal shooting, including 8-14 from beyond the arc. Austin Reaves had a quiet game (15 points, eight rebounds, seven assists) by the lofty standards that he has set for himself so far this season.

LeBron James added 19 points, a game-high 15 rebounds, and a game-high tying eight assists, but his -16 plus/minus number--second worst on the team behind only Jake LaRavia's -25 in just nine minutes of (in)action--indicates how much the Lakers hemorrhaged points on defense when he was in the game. It is remarkable how statistically productive James is at 40 (soon to be 41) years old, but from the standpoint of winning a championship it is fair to ask if he is helping or hurting the Lakers; the Lakers are paying him nearly $50 million per year, and they feel compelled to use a roster spot on his son Bronny, who is averaging 2.0 ppg on .323 field goal shooting this season after averaging 2.3 ppg on .313 field goal shooting as a rookie. 

Doncic is the Lakers' best player, and the roster should be built around him, which means adding bigs who can defend, rebound, and roll to the hoop, and adding wing players who can defend. Even if James accepts being the second option behind Doncic--or possibly even the third option behind Reaves, who entered the game averaging 28.4 ppg on .509 field goal shooting--the Lakers' ability to reshape the roster will be greatly limited as long as they are paying James a max contract while also filling a roster spot with his son, who shows no signs of developing into a rotation-level player. 

In contrast, the Spurs look like a team on the rise; they have a nice mixture of veterans and young players, and they have markedly improved at both ends of the court, displaying better shot selection and more defensive focus than they did last season.

Yes, I realize that the Lakers entered this game with the second best record in the Western Conference, but the eye test reveals that they are a poor defensive team that has stacked up wins against a soft schedule; as the schedule gets tougher, they will drop in the standings. 

In my December 3 NBA Cup article, I picked the Thunder to beat the Suns and I picked the Spurs to beat the Lakers "in a close, high scoring game." I was right about both outcomes, but I did not expect the Spurs to rout the Lakers, particularly without the services of Victor Wembanyama, who is the team's leading scorer (26.2 ppg), rebounder (12.9 rpg), and shot blocker (3.6 bpg); the Spurs' ability to win on the road without Wembanyama speaks volumes about their growth, particularly considering that they had a 14-27 road record last season.

Oklahoma City and San Antonio will play on Saturday December 13 in Las Vegas to earn the right to represent the Western Conference in the NBA Cup Championship Game and face the winner of Saturday's other semifinals matchup featuring New York versus Orlando, the teams that won the NBA Cup Eastern Conference quarterfinals games on Tuesday.  

Labels: Chet Holmgren, De'Aaron Fox, L.A. Lakers, Oklahoma City Thunder, Phoenix Suns, San Antonio Spurs, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Stephon Castle

posted by David Friedman @ 2:33 AM

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New York and Orlando Advance to the NBA Cup Semifinals

The Orlando Magic defeated the Miami Heat 117-108 in the first of the 2025 NBA Cup quarterfinals games. Last year, the Magic lost to the Milwaukee Bucks in the NBA Cup quarterfinals, but this year their offseason addition of Desmond Bane paid big dividends as he erupted for a game-high 37 points on 14-24 field goal shooting, including 6-9 from three point range for a team that ranked 30th (last) in the league in three point field goal percentage last season. Jalen Suggs contributed 20 points, four assists, and two steals, Paolo Banchero added 18 points, seven rebounds, and four assists, and Wendell Carter Jr. had 14 points plus a game-high 10 rebounds. The Magic won the rebounding battle 47-39 and they outscored the Heat in the paint 60-52. Norman Powell led a balanced Heat offense with 21 points on 8-19 field goal shooting, followed closely by Tyler Herro (20 points), Bam Adebeyo (19 points, team-high eight rebounds), and Andrew Wiggins (19 points).

In my December 3 NBA Cup article, I picked Orlando to beat Miami, but that was before the Magic's Franz Wagner suffered a left high ankle sprain that is expected to sideline him for several weeks. Wagner is averaging 22.7 ppg, 6.1 rpg, and 3.7 apg in 24 games this season, and initially the Magic struggled without him as the Heat jumped to a 15-0 lead by the 9:16 mark of the first quarter. The Magic outscored the Heat 17-15 the rest of the way in the first quarter, and then won the second quarter 39-27 to pull to within 57-56 by halftime. The Magic took the lead early in the third quarter before Bane fouled Adebayo on a three point attempt at the 8:53 mark. Adebayo made the first two free throws before missing the third, but Adebayo scooped up the rebound and Powell drained a three pointer a few seconds later to complete the rare five point possession, putting the Heat up, 69-66. Suggs answered with a three pointer to tie the score, and the Magic never trailed again. The Magic waste too many possessions and make too many careless plays to be a championship team, but Bane's 25 second half points proved to be too much for the Heat to overcome. 

Even with this loss, the Heat are still one of the NBA's pleasant surprises. They are playing at the fastest pace in franchise history, ranking third in the league in scoring (122.3 ppg) prior to this game. Jimmy Butler forced his way out of Miami last season and he landed with the Golden State Warriors, but so far this season the Heat have a better record than the Warriors. Butler's video message to Warriors' fans after he joined the team--"Championship coming soon"--is not aging well. Miami coach Erik Spoelstra proved that he can successfully handle the egos on a super team while leading the Heat to NBA titles in 2012 and 2013 with LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, and Chris Bosh forming a "Big Three," and he has also shown that he can maximize the output of a team that does not have even one superstar. 

In the second game of Amazon Prime's NBA Cup quarterfinals doubleheader, the New York Knicks beat the Toronto Raptors 117-101. Jalen Brunson poured in a game-high 35 points on 13-19 field goal shooting, including 6-9 from beyond the arc. He had 20 first quarter points on 7-9 field goal shooting to help the Knicks overcome an otherwise slow start. An alleged problem for the Knicks last season was that coach Tom Thiboedeau relied too heavily on his starters, but the formula that carried them to the Eastern Conference Finals for the first time since 2000 also worked in this game for coach Mike Brown: the Knicks' starters scored 98 of the team's 117 points while four of New York's starters played at least 36 minutes each. Josh Hart contributed 21 points, six rebounds, and four assists. Mikal Bridges had 15 points, five rebounds, and four assists, Karl-Anthony Towns added 14 points, a game-high 16 rebounds, and two blocked shots, and OG Anunoby chipped in 13 points plus six rebounds. The Knicks outrebounded the Raptors 48-37, and they shot .525 (42-80) from the field while holding the Raptors to .433 (39-90) field goal shooting. Brandon Ingram led the Raptors with 31 points on 11-18 field goal shooting while also grabbing six rebounds and dishing six assists. Jamal Shead made his first start of the season in place of the injured Immanuel Quickley, and he scored 18 points while passing for a game-high eight assists. Scottie Barnes scored just 13 points on 6-18 field goal shooting, tying his second lowest point total of the season.

This game played out the way that I expected; in my aforementioned December 3 NBA cup article, I picked New York to beat Toronto by double digits, noting that Toronto "feasted on a weak schedule loaded with sub-.500 teams, and they lost to the Knicks 116-94 on November 30." The Raptors gave their fans some early (and false) hope by taking a 17-11 first quarter lead and they were still up 39-35 at the end of the first quarter--but the Knicks blitzed the Raptors 34-13 in the second quarter, shooting .583 (14-24) from the field while holding the Raptors to .238 (5-21) field goal shooting. The Raptors outscored the Knicks 49-48 in the second half, but that was not nearly enough to overcome their second quarter collapse.

The Knicks and Magic will play on Saturday December 13 in Las Vegas to earn the right to represent the Eastern Conference in the NBA Cup Championship Game. 

Labels: Desmond Bane, Jalen Brunson, Miami Heat, NBA Cup, New York Knicks, Orlando Magic, Toronto Raptors

posted by David Friedman @ 12:51 AM

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Assessing Chris Paul's Legacy and Leadership

The L.A. Clippers parted ways with 40 year old Chris Paul in an unusual but in retrospect not surprising middle of the night move, informing Paul that his services are no longer desired. The Clippers can waive Paul and eat his $3.6 million salary, agree to a buyout, or wait until December 15 to trade him (due to the NBA's arcane salary cap rules), but until those details are decided the team has sent him home in a move that strongly suggests that he was not merely unproductive (2.9 ppg on .321 field goal shooting in 16 games this season) but also a toxic locker room presence; there is no other reason to deal so harshly and abruptly with an established, veteran player, let alone one who will deservedly be a first ballot Hall of Famer. Paul recently announced that he planned to retire after this season, so this sudden end--or at least interruption--of his farewell tour brings to mind the scene in "Forget Paris" when Kareem Abdul-Jabbar told Billy Crystal (who played an NBA referee in the movie) that he can't eject him because he is on his farewell tour, and Crystal snarled, "Let me be the first to say, 'Farewell!'"

In his prime, Chris Paul was an elite playmaker, a deadly midrange shooter, and a feisty, crafty defensive player. He earned his selection to the NBA's 75th Anniversary Team with an impressive resume that includes four All-NBA First Team selections (2008, 2012-14), and five All-Defensive First Team selections (2012-16). He led the NBA in steals six times (2008-09, 2011-14), and he ranks second all-time in total regular season steals (2728). Paul led the NBA in assists five times (2008-09, 2014-15, 2022), and he ranks second all-time in total regular season assists (12,552).

However, no history of NBA stat padding is complete without an extensive chapter on Chris Paul's inflated assist totals, and it is shameful that the NBA selectively corrects some statistical errors (including taking away bogus triple doubles from LeBron James in 2006, 2009 and 2014) while letting other statistical errors remain in the record books (including Paul's inflated assist totals). These inflated numbers matter and they affect the legacies of multiple players because Paul is credited with breaking many assist records in the regular season and the playoffs.

Proving that Paul's assist totals are inflated does not mean that he was not a great passer; two things can be true at the same time: Paul was a great passer, and Paul's assist numbers are inflated.

Paul is often lavishly praised as a great leader. The way that the Clippers jettisoned Paul is just the latest piece of evidence that Paul's leadership has been vastly overrated by media members who are either gullible or who push preferred narratives regardless of what the facts show. 

In Notes About the 2020 Christmas Day Quintupleheader, I compared the leadership styles of Chris Paul, LeBron James, and Giannis Antetokounmpo: 

Perceptions and descriptions of leadership are interesting. Giannis Antetokounmpo is a great leader, regardless of whether or not media members have figured that out yet.

Charles Barkley so often says that Chris Paul is the best leader in the NBA that this has become a running joke during TNT's telecasts. LeBron James is also often lauded as a great leader. These characterizations are puzzling. Paul has hopped from team to team, and he is often at odds with his teammates and/or coaches. Paul's vaunted leadership has not resulted in a single NBA Finals appearance, let alone a championship. When someone is called a great leader but his teams have not accomplished much it is fair and logical to ask: "Where exactly is this great leader leading his followers?" Paul is a great but undersized point guard. He demands a lot from those around him, which can be a good thing at times, but his leadership has not had the same impact or generated the same results as many other better leaders have achieved during his tenure in the NBA. 

James is on the short list of candidates for the title of greatest basketball player of all-time--but neither his greatness as a player nor his charitable endeavors off of the court prove that he is a great basketball leader. LeBron James' failures as a leader are well-documented, although many media members prefer to downplay these facts.

Giannis Antetokounmpo is a better leader than LeBron James or Chris Paul. Antetokounmpo works hard, he encourages his teammates, and he is not looking for shortcuts. Consider his response to questions about why he re-signed with Milwaukee now as oppose to waiting and testing free agency. Antetokounmpo said that if he had delayed his decision then this would have put tremendous pressure and scrutiny on his teammates, who would have had to constantly worry about and talk about whether or not he would stay. Antetokounmpo said that if he had waited then he would have harmed his teammates and squandered a season during the prime of his career when he and his teammates have a chance to reach their ultimate goal: winning an NBA title.

It is impossible to imagine LeBron James or Chris Paul answering that question that way, or conducting themselves in that way. James has won four championships and four Finals MVPs; no one can question his greatness as a player, not can anyone question his ability to raise a team's level--but James has also presided over the implosion of multiple teams, and he wasted prime years during his first stint in Cleveland: just imagine what might have happened if he had fully committed to the Cavaliers franchise and helped to build the program as opposed to always having one foot out the door before eventually fleeing to Miami. 

In contrast, Antetokounmpo has a finely honed sense of urgency and sense of the moment; every game is precious, every season is precious, and you cannot afford to waste games or seasons because you think that you are heading toward greener pastures. Antetokounmpo gets it. James has been successful despite lacking those qualities at times, not because he consistently displays those qualities. In other words, James is so talented that he and his teams are sometimes able to overcome his flawed leadership style.

Isiah Thomas joined an awful team and helped to build a two-time champion. Michael Jordan joined an awful team and helped to build a dynasty. Antetokounmpo is a throwback to that kind of wonderful old school mentality.

A few months after I wrote those words, Antetokounmpo led the Bucks to their first NBA title since 1971, beating Paul's Phoenix Suns in the NBA Finals. Antetokounmpo won a championship without whining about his teammates or coach, and without forming (or jumping to) a super team. Antetokounmpo has been a great leader throughout his 13 seasons in Milwaukee, and even if he finishes his career with another team that will not diminish what he did in and for Milwaukee. After Paul scored a playoff career-high tying 41 points to lift the Suns into the 2021 NBA Finals, I explained why that one great performance does not change his overall resume:

Paul is a great player, but for some reason he gets more credit for his (limited) playoff success and less blame for his (extensive) playoff failure than other great players do. It is obvious and indisputable that Paul authored a tremendous performance in game six, but that is part of a larger legacy, and does not define his career--particularly if this playoff run does not result in a title. Many media members have a strange way of quantifying leadership. If our mission is to go to point Z, and our leader only takes us to point M, then it is difficult to rationally argue that our leader is a better leader than someone who led his team to point Z five times--or, to put it more bluntly, when I think about the best leaders in the NBA in the post-Jordan era, I think about Kobe Bryant, Tim Duncan, and LeBron James. Each of those guys has/had a different leadership style, but each played a major role in multiple championship runs; love them or hate them, they led their teams to point Z. Chris Paul is in his 16th season, and this will be his first NBA Finals appearance. You may retort that Paul has not always had the best supporting cast around him, but the reality is that he has had a lot of talent around him in multiple organizations while spending most of his career losing in the second round or earlier; either his leadership has been overrated, or leadership itself does not matter as much as raw talent. I am not saying that Paul is not a good leader, but the popular notion that he is the best leader in the NBA is not supported by the most important evidence: sustained team performance at an elite level.

It may seem like I contradicted myself about James' leadership abilities in those two passages, so I should clarify that I don't think that James is as great a leader as many people say that he is, but I think that he is a better leader than Paul and I think that--despite his documented leadership failures at times--his leadership played a role in championship runs, which contrasts with Paul's leadership style that often led to internal problems on his teams. 

Bob Cousy 16-8 (won six NBA championships)

Oscar Robertson 8-9 (won one NBA championship)

Jerry West 16-12 (won one NBA championship)

Walt Frazier 11-6 (won two NBA championships)

Magic Johnson 32-8 (won five NBA championships)

Isiah Thomas 16-7 (won two NBA championships)

John Stockton 17-19 

Jason Kidd 16-16 (won one NBA championship) 

Steve Nash 11-12

Allen Iverson 6-8 

Tony Parker 30-12 (won four NBA championships) 

Russell Westbrook 12-13

Derrick Rose 4-7 

Stephen Curry 24-6 (won four NBA championships)

Kyrie Irving 15-6 (won one NBA championship)    

Contextual factors beyond any one player's control affect team results, but there is little evidence that Paul is a great leader and a lot of evidence that teams he led imploded with him at the helm. For example, in the 2022 playoffs, Paul's Phoenix Suns lost game seven in the second round to the Dallas Mavericks, 123-90. Here is how I described the massacre: 

Stunning. Unprecedented. Humiliating.

I am disinclined to use hyberbole, but I am at a loss to describe what the Dallas Mavericks did to the 64-18 Phoenix Suns in Phoenix in a 123-90 game seven rout. By the time Chris Paul--supposedly the best leader in the NBA--made his first field goal his Suns trailed by 40; the Suns were so far behind they couldn't see the Mavericks with a telescope, a time machine, or a fortune teller. 

 I added the following: 

Am I belaboring the point? Am I making too much of one game? If you think so, then consider how much grief Kobe Bryant was given about his supposedly bad performance in the 2004 NBA Finals, when his injury-riddled Lakers lost 4-1 to the Detroit Pistons. Now, imagine that Bryant--whether as a 17 year old, a 27 year old, or a 37 year old--went into the playoffs leading a 64 win team and then lost by 33 points at home while the other team's star outscored his entire team for more than a half, and while Bryant put up a second quarter boxscore consisting of one point, no rebounds, no assists, no steals, and no blocked shots.

What do you suppose might have been said about Bryant after such a game? 

I say that players should be evaluated by the same standards. A player's legacy is not defined by one game, but by his overall resume. When I look at Bryant, I see a 5-2 Finals record, I see his team generally winning as the favorite and generally being competitive as the underdog. I see him putting up tremendous individual numbers on a consistent basis. For those reasons (and more), I put him in my pro basketball Pantheon.

When I look at Chris Paul, I see no championships despite playing for several excellent teams. I see his team losing more than once as the favorite. I see that no player in NBA history has blown more 2-0 playoff leads than Chris Paul, whose teams have squandered such an advantage five times: 2008 versus the Spurs, 2013 versus the Grizzlies, 2016 versus the Trail Blazers, 2021 versus the Bucks, and now 2022 versus the Mavericks. Paul's Clippers also blew a 3-1 lead versus the Houston Rockets in 2015; the Clippers split the first two games when Paul was out with an injury, but then after his return in game three they eventually lost three straight games. Paul is now 3-5 in game seven showdowns. 

In light of that evidence, I try to understand why "stat gurus" and media members pump up Paul to be more than he is. 

The harsh reality is that there is nowhere to hide in the playoffs. Players can inflate and manipulate their numbers to some extent in the regular season, and "stat gurus" team up with media members to craft agenda-based narratives advocating that those players receive various awards--but then the playoffs arrive, and every year we see Harden go on his "concert tour" and Paul cough up so many playoff leads his voice should sound like General Grievous in "Star Wars."

I've been saying this for well over a decade, but maybe people will pay attention now (I doubt it, but I'll keep trying anyway): Paul is an undersized player who consistently wears down and/or gets injured in the playoffs. He is a great player who has a lot of heart, but undersized players simply cannot be as valuable as players who are 6-6 and bigger who have comparable skills (let alone bigger players who also have superior skills). There is one player 6-3 or under in my pro basketball Pantheon: Jerry West, who would give the business to any other similarly-sized player in pro basketball history. Isiah Thomas did not quite reach Pantheon-level, but he led Detroit to back to back titles without having a teammate who made the NBA's 50th Anniversary Team, and he had a winning career record head to head against Bird, Magic, and Jordan. People who compare Paul favorably with Thomas have absolutely no idea how great Thomas was, and how durable he was until the very end of his career...

Luka Doncic right now has still not reached his peak, but as a versatile 6-6, 240 pound multi-position threat he is already better than Chris Paul ever was or ever could be. That is not a knock on Paul so much as it is a statement of basketball reality: the great 6-6 player is better than the great 6-0 player every time, and even more so in game seven.  

That game seven was not an isolated debacle. As mentioned above, Paul's teams have a history of playoff self-destruction:  

Paul's teams have blown five 2-0 series leads, his Clippers squandered a 3-1 lead versus the Rockets in 2015, his game seven record is 3-5, and--as noted above--his Suns disappeared in game seven at home versus Dallas last year. Every time Paul loses, excuses proliferate like weeds in an unmaintained yard.  

Paul's poor leadership is revealed in other ways. Without any evidence supporting his assertions, Paul has repeatedly trashed the public reputation of Scott Foster, who consistently grades as one of the NBA's top referees, a topic that I discussed in Blaming A Referee for Losing After Posting a "Triple Single" is Not Great Leadership:

Paul is often called the best leader in the NBA, and he is the current President of the NBA Players Association. Paul is attacking the credibility of an employer who pays him millions of dollars per year as part of a multi-billion dollar business that is based in no small part on the credibility of the competition between teams; without that credibility, the NBA is not in the sports business but rather in show business (maybe that business model would still work--it has worked for pro wrestling for decades--but that has never been the NBA's business model, and fans of pure basketball would be repulsed if the outcomes of games were proved to be predetermined)...

Great leaders do not attack the credibility of the business that feeds their families. Great leaders do not insist on playing if their level of play is harming the team.

The media narratives about players such as Chris Paul, Russell Westbrook, Stephen Curry, and others are fascinating to observe. Chris Paul is supposedly a great leader even after he posts a "triple single" with an awful plus/minus number while "leading" his favored team to a blowout loss. 

Russell Westbrook is supposedly a terrible leader even though he helped turn around the season of a not particularly talented team that was devastated by COVID-19 and various injuries. Yesterday, after Westbrook--who was a game-time decision due to an ankle injury--posted 26 points, 12 rebounds, and 10 assists (team-high numbers in all three categories) in Washington's 132-103 game three loss to Philadelphia at least one commentator called this an "empty" triple double. You can be sure that if Westbrook put up Chris Paul-like numbers of seven points, six assists, and five rebounds then that same commentator would have attacked Westbrook for quitting. Westbrook had as many rebounds in that game as Paul has in three games versus the Lakers! Westbrook's plus/minus number (-15) was better than the plus/minus number of every Washington starter except for Alex Len, whose plus/minus number was -14 in just 11 minutes. The Wizards are the eighth seeded team playing the number one seeded team, but Westbrook had a great game while playing hurt against a superior team. Paul is on course to lead his second seeded team to defeat while playing terribly. Who is the better player and better leader? This is not just about one season or three playoff games; the numbers and the true narrative (not the media's fictional narrative) are consistent throughout both players' careers. Westbrook was an All-NBA Team level performer for four teams that reached the Western Conference Finals, including one team that made it to the NBA Finals. He is currently tied for third on the all-time playoff list with 11 triple doubles (matching Jason Kidd, and trailing only Magic Johnson's 30 and LeBron James' 28). It would be fascinating to look up the media coverage of other playoff triple doubles to see how many have been described as "empty." Granted, the same commentator who called Westbrook's triple double "empty" also called Jimmy Butler's triple double "empty"--but Butler posted 12 points on 4-15 field goal shooting with 10 rebounds, 10 assists, and a -18 plus/minus number in a 17 point loss as his sixth seeded Heat were swept by the third seeded Bucks to become one of the few Conference champions ever swept in the next year's playoffs. There is no comparison between how Butler played and how Westbrook played; lumping those two performances together is intellectually lazy, at best.

Stephen Curry is lauded as a top three MVP candidate for leading his team to "play out" (instead of "play in") to the playoffs despite having two opportunities to win one game to qualify for the playoffs. Damian Lillard has recently pointed out that last season his own MVP candidacy was dismissed because of his team's low playoff seeding, and Lillard said that to be consistent the media should not tout Curry as this season's MVP. My consistent take is that Lillard was not a legit MVP candidate last season, nor is Curry a legit MVP candidate this season. I agree with Lillard that the media's MVP narratives are not consistent or fair.

Paul's obsession with bashing Foster betrays a sense of entitlement that the NBA never put in check:

Paul acts like he feels entitled to say whatever he wants to say and act however he wants to act without facing any consequences. He refuses to take responsibility for his actions, and instead casts aspersions on Foster.

Foster is the easy target here. As the saying goes, the fans don't buy tickets to see the referees but to see star players. However, based on what we saw and heard there was nothing unusual about the ejection. If Paul truly believes that Foster is biased against him, then why did Paul keep talking after getting a technical foul? It must be emphasized that Foster walked away after issuing the first technical foul; this is not Jake O'Donnell versus Clyde Drexler or Hue Hollins versus Scottie Pippen/the Chicago Bulls, instances when officiating bias was an obvious pattern. O'Donnell's grudges against multiple players led to him losing his job despite grading out highly, while Hollins' bias was so obvious that his name was the first one that came to many people's minds when the story first broke about an unnamed referee (who later turned out to be Tim Donaghy) intentionally making wrong calls.

Paul has publicly created a narrative that Foster has a grudge against him without providing any proof, knowing full well that he is immune from consequences because Foster will not be permitted by the NBA to publicly respond. Why should media members or fans believe Paul? Paul has proven to be both a cheap shot artist and a whiner throughout his career, and there are many players around the league who have feuded with him, including both teammates and opponents. I am not aware of a single other player accusing Foster of bias, and Foster consistently grades out as a top referee. I watch a lot of NBA games, and while my focus is much more on the players and the coaches than the referees I have never felt that Foster is incompetent or biased. 

It has become popular to suggest that the NBA should never assign Foster to officiate a game involving Paul's team. That is nonsense. If Foster grades out well enough to officiate the NBA Finals and Paul is fortunate enough to be carried to the NBA Finals by Stephen Curry then how can the league take that assignment away from Foster? No, the answer here is simple: if there is objective evidence that Foster is nursing a grudge that prevents him from officiating Paul in an unbiased manner then the NBA should fire Foster--and if there is no evidence of that, then the NBA should fine Paul for his comments, and make it clear that if he makes additional comments questioning the integrity of the officiating then he will be suspended. That is how former Commissioner David Stern would have quashed this nonsense that current Commissioner Adam Silver has allowed to fester for several years. If Paul is correct that the NBA organized a meeting with Paul, Foster, and others then the outcome of that meeting should have been an understanding that Paul's job is to play, Foster's job is to officiate objectively, and that if this ever becomes a public issue again then the person at fault is going to be disciplined by the league. Instead, Silver is letting one of these guys--and my strong suspicion is that the culprit is Paul--make a mockery of the league.

It is fascinating and revealing to observe so many media members covering the release of a 40 year old player averaging 2.9 ppg as if the move is an inexplicable decision and a disrespectful action. Chris Paul is an old, poor performing player on a losing team, and he reportedly is not on speaking terms with coach Ty Lue. Lue is a championship-winning coach, and he does not need advice or so-called "leadership" from a washed up 40 year old player who has never won a championship.

Leadership is about results, which means uplifting those around you individually and collectively. Leadership is about setting an example of personal accountability. Leadership is not about empty slogans or about narratives unsupported by facts. In his prime, Chris Paul was a talented and hard-working player, and he accomplished a lot for an undersized player--but the objective evidence demonstrates that he was not the leader that so many people hyped him to be. The value that he provided during his peak seasons was that he was a great passer, an excellent midrange shooter, and a gritty defensive player; he no longer provides great passing, shooting, or defense, and thus the Clippers parted ways with Paul precisely because Paul provides no value to a team beyond on court contributions. If Paul were a great leader, then the Clippers would keep him around to lead, much like the Miami Heat kept Udonis Haslem around long after he was no longer a productive player.

Labels: Chris Paul, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Kobe Bryant, L.A. Clippers, LeBron James, Phoenix Suns, Ty Lue

posted by David Friedman @ 12:12 PM

16 comments