20 Second Timeout

Pacers Run Past Knicks to Advance to the NBA Finals

In a series during which the Indiana Pacers tried to play fast while the New York Knicks tried to slow the game down, Indiana ran past New York 125-108 to claim a 4-2 victory and earn a trip to the NBA Finals to face the Oklahoma City Thunder. After New York's rousing game five win, it may have been tempting to assume that the momentum in the series had shifted--but even though in game momentum exists, game to game momentum is difficult to generate: the next game starts 0-0 with different referees in front of a different crowd under different conditions in terms of injuries, foul trouble, and other factors. Thus, in my recap of New York's game five win, I concluded, "The Knicks won game five because they played harder than the Pacers. The team that plays harder will win game six, and it will likely be evident by the end of the first quarter which team will win." The Pacers won game six by playing harder, but the first half was tightly contested, with neither team leading by more than six points; the Pacers led just 58-54 at halftime before using relentless defensive pressure and blistering 7-13 (.538) three point shooting to break the game open in the third quarter: the Pacers went on a 9-0 run in the first 1:58 of the third quarter and led by double digits for most of the second half. Pascal Siakam (10 points) and Thomas Bryant (eight points) led Indiana's third quarter charge.

Siakam scored a game-high 31 points on 10-18 field goal shooting. Tyrese Haliburton bounced back from a subpar game five with 21 points on 9-17 field goal shooting along with a game-high 13 assists, six rebounds, and three steals; he had four turnovers after not committing a turnover in games four and five, but a four turnover game punctuated by aggressiveness and decisiveness is better than a passive zero turnover game such as his desultory game five: productivity and activity often matter more than so-called "efficiency." Obi Toppin contributed 18 points and six rebounds in 25 minutes off of the bench. Andrew Nembhard had 14 points, eight rebounds, and a game-high six steals as he spearheaded a great team defensive effort that produced 34 points off of turnovers. Bryant finished with 11 points in just 13 minutes.

OG Anunoby led the Knicks with 24 points. Karl-Anthony Towns added 22 points and a game-high 14 rebounds, but he shot just 8-19 from the field. Mikal Bridges scored 15 points but had a game-high tying five turnovers. Jalen Brunson was the leading scorer in the series (30.7 ppg), but in game six he had a series-low 19 points on 8-18 field goal shooting while committing a game-high tying five turnovers; the Pacers' pressure defense wore him down in this game specifically, and in the series in general after he scored 43 points on 15-25 field goal shooting in New York's deflating game one loss; even though the Knicks won two games in this series, it is fair to say that they never recovered from blowing a 14 point lead in the final 2:45 of the fourth quarter of game one before losing in overtime; these teams proved to be evenly matched--separated by just 11 points over six games--and thus giving away game one was a fatal blow. 

Tyrese Haliburton is the engine for the Pacers' attack, but--to mix metaphors--Pascal Siakam is the barometer: the Pacers won each of the three games in this series when Siakam scored at least 30 points--including his playoff career-high 39 point outburst in game two--and they went 1-2 in the three games when he scored 17 points or less. In the Eastern Conference Finals, Siakam averaged a team-high 24.8 ppg with shooting splits of .524/.500/.674 while ranking second on the team in rebounding (5.0 rpg), tied for second in assists (3.5 apg), third in steals (1.3 spg), and third in three point field goals made (10) as the Pacers made more three pointers than the Knicks (73-62) with a better three point shooting percentage (.390-.332). Siakam received the Larry Bird Eastern Conference Finals MVP; previous award winners include Jayson Tatum (2022), Jimmy Butler (2023), and Jaylen Brown (2024).

When the Pacers started the season 10-15, it is doubtful that anyone outside of their locker room envisioned not only a return trip to the Eastern Conference Finals but reaching the NBA Finals for the first time in 25 years and just the second time in franchise history (the Pacers won three ABA titles--1970, 1972-73--and played in the ABA Finals five times). Coach Rick Carlisle, who led the underdog Dallas Mavericks to the 2011 NBA title, did a masterful job of not only getting the Pacers back on track in the regular season but also navigating through upsets of two favored teams (the number one seeded Cleveland Cavaliers and the New York Knicks) in the playoffs. Carlisle will be making his second NBA Finals appearance as a coach after guiding teams to the Eastern Conference Finals four times (Detroit in 2003; Indiana in 2004, 2024-25) and to the Western Conference Finals one time (Dallas in 2011). The Pacers face a daunting challenge against the Oklahoma City Thunder, but that will be the subject of another article.

This game marked the end of an era in not just sports history but television history: the final episode of TNT's "Inside the NBA" aired. Although the famous studio crew of Ernie Johnson, Kenny Smith, Charles Barkley, and Shaquille O'Neal will still be together in some format next season on ABC/ESPN, there is a strong sense that things will not be quite the same as they were when TNT did pregame shows, game telecasts, and postgame shows. ABC/ESPN has not done a great job with its NBA coverage--to put it mildly--and there are justifiable fears that they will figure out some way to mess up a quartet that they tried unsuccessfully to match for a long time. The TNT foursome found the right mixture of humor combined with insightful analysis, and they made it look a lot easier than it is (as ABC/ESPN has proven, in a negative way). In "Going Inside," the behind the scenes show about TNT's last season covering the NBA, Johnson noted that in this life filled with uncertainties there are only three things that we can control: 

1) Our attitude

2) How hard we work

3) How we treat people

Those words of wisdom provide a glimpse into how special Johnson is as a person, not just as a broadcaster.

The NBA on TNT will be missed, and it will never be forgotten by NBA fans.

Labels: Andrew Nembhard, Indiana Pacers, Jalen Brunson, Karl-Anthony Towns, New York Knicks, Pascal Siakam, Tyrese Haliburton

posted by David Friedman @ 11:50 AM

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Knicks Slow Down Pacers, 111-94

The New York Knicks jumped out to a 10-3 lead, never trailed, and held the Indiana Pacers to their lowest point total of the 2025 playoffs in a 111-94 game five win. The Knicks saved their season just two days after the Pacers scored 130 points at home in their game four victory, the Pacers' second highest scoring total in the 2025 playoffs, trailing only their 138 points in their game one overtime win versus the Knicks. The series shifts back to Indianapolis on Saturday night with the Pacers having a second opportunity to eliminate the Knicks and advance to the NBA Finals for the first time since 2000--but if the Knicks win again then game seven will be played in New York on Monday night. In game five, the Knicks limited the Pacers to 16 fast break points after allowing 22 in game five, they outrebounded the Pacers 45-40, they outscored the Pacers 60-34 in the paint, and they committed 15 turnovers while forcing 19 turnovers.

Jalen Brunson scored a game-high 32 points on 12-18 field goal shooting while also dishing for a team-high tying five assists and grabbing five rebounds. Karl-Anthony Towns had 24 points plus a game-high 13 rebounds. Towns shot 10-20 from the field, and he aggressively attacked in the paint instead of settling for three pointers. Brunson and Towns are the first teammates to each score at least 20 points in the first five games of a Conference Finals series since Shaquille O'Neal and Kobe Bryant accomplished that feat in the 2002 Western Conference Finals. Brunson and Towns are defensive liabilities at times, but that was not the case in this game, as indicated by their plus/minus numbers (+18 and +26 respectively). Mikal Bridges scored 12 points and had a team-high tying five assists. Josh Hart came off of the bench but still played 34 productive minutes (12 points, 10 rebounds, four assists). 

Bennedict Mathurin led the Pacers with 23 points and nine rebounds in 25 minutes off of the bench, but the Pacers' starters scored just 37 points on 13-39 (.333) field goal shooting. Pascal Siakam, who had 15 points on 5-13 field goal shooting, was the only starter who scored more than eight points. Tyrese Haliburton, who had a historic triple double in game four, notched a game-high six assists and had no turnovers for the second consecutive game, but he scored just eight points on 2-7 field goal shooting; he is the engine that drives the Pacers' high octane offensive attack, but that engine was stuck in neutral for most of game five as the Knicks pressured Haliburton all over the court.

The Knicks led 86-64 with 2:12 left in the third quarter, but the Pacers cut the margin to 96-84 on a Jarace Walker three pointer at the 8:15 mark of the fourth quarter. The Pacers won game one in overtime despite trailing by 14 points with 2:45 remaining in the fourth quarter, but this time the Knicks responded with a 6-0 run and led by at least 14 points the rest of the way.

Many playoff games inspire dramatic overreactions punctuated by phrases such as "Team X made a big adjustment," or "Team X really found something that changed the momentum of the series." During the 2013 NBA Finals, 11-time NBA champion Bill Russell sagely noted, "You have to make adjustments that your team can make." An adjustment will only work if it is something that a team has previously practiced and is thus mentally/physically prepared to execute; contrary to widely disseminated narratives, teams are not coming up with entirely new game plans on the fly. When Jeff Van Gundy was an analyst for ABC/ESPN, he consistently refuted the notion that in-game adjustments decide the outcomes of playoff series and he emphasized that "play harder" is the best "adjustment" that a team can make. 

After game five, Indiana Coach Rick Carlisle repeatedly mentioned that his team did not play with enough energy and force, and New York Coach Tom Thibodeau dismissed the notion that he had made any significant offensive or defensive adjustments.

The Knicks won game five because they played harder than the Pacers. The team that plays harder will win game six, and it will likely be evident by the end of the first quarter which team will win.

Labels: Indiana Pacers, Jalen Brunson, Karl-Anthony Towns, New York Knicks, Pascal Siakam, Tyrese Haliburton

posted by David Friedman @ 12:17 PM

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Thunder Muzzle Wolves to Advance to the NBA Finals for the First Time Since 2012

The Oklahoma City Thunder outscored the Minnesota Timberwolves 26-9 in the first quarter and built a 39 point second half lead en route to a 124-94 win to clinch the Western Conference Finals, 4-1. The Thunder received the Oscar Robertson Trophy for winning the Western Conference Championship after shooting 46-88 (.523) from the field while limiting the Timberwolves to 35-85 (.412) field goal shooting. The Thunder also outrebounded the Timberwolves 46-39. The official fast break numbers were 19-11 in favor of the Thunder, but it seemed like the Thunder had an even more substantial edge in that category. At times, it looked like the Thunder were playing six on five as they had 14 steals and converted 21 turnovers into 18 points; at halftime, the Timberwolves had 14 turnovers and 12 field goals made, a rare team "Harden" (more turnovers than field goals made). 

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander scored a game-high 34 points on 14-25 field goal shooting while passing for a game-high eight assists, grabbing seven rebounds, and committing just two turnovers. He was one of five Thunder players who had plus/minus numbers of at least +21. The Thunder's first quarter domination was largely a product of Gilgeous-Alexander's high level scoring and playmaking, as he scored or assisted on 24 first quarter points: he scored 12 points on 5-7 field goal shooting, and he had three assists to Chet Holmgren (one three pointer, two dunks), one assist to Isaiah Hartenstein (dunk), and one assist to Cason Wallace for a three pointer just before the buzzer. Gilgeous-Alexander averaged 31.4 ppg, 8.2 apg, and 5.2 rpg during the series with shooting splits of .457/.318/.863 to earn the Magic Johnson Western Conference Finals MVP, joining a club that includes Stephen Curry (2022), Nikola Jokic (2023), and Luka Doncic (2024). 

In addition to Gilgeous-Alexander's individual brilliance, the Thunder are distinguished by their unrelenting defensive pressure, the athleticism throughout their roster, and their overall depth. Holmgren had 22 points, seven rebounds, and a game-high tying three blocked shots. Jalen Williams played a solid all-around game (19 points, game-high eight rebounds, five assists). Lu Dort scored 12 points and had his usual tremendous impact defensively, Isaiah Joe led the bench brigade with 11 points, and Alex Caruso was a menace on defense with a game-high four steals plus numerous deflections and general disruptiveness. The offseason additions of Caruso and Isaiah Hartenstein (eight points, five rebounds, two blocked shots in 17 minutes) helped the Thunder improve from being a very good team to being a dominant team.

The Timberwolves looked overwhelmed and frustrated. Anthony Edwards insists that he does not want to be the face of the NBA, and perhaps he should not be considered for that subjective title after scoring just 19 points on 7-18 field goal shooting with a game-worst -29 plus/minus number. He averaged 23.0 ppg, 7.4 rpg, and 4.6 apg during the series with shooting splits of .471/.282/.688. Edwards had two 30 point games during this series, and the Timberwolves went 1-1 in those contests, but he also had three games with less than 20 points, all three of which the Timberwolves lost. 

In the postgame press conference after game five, Edwards scoffed at the notion that being eliminated from the Western Conference Finals in five games for the second year in a row should hurt: "I don't know why people would think it would hurt. It's exciting for me. I'm 23. I get to do it a whole bunch of times. I'm hurt more so for [teammate] Mike [Conley]. I came up short for Mike. We tried last year, we couldn't get it. We tried again this year. We'll try again next year. But hurt is a terrible word to use. I'm good." Edwards should be careful about asserting that he will reach the Western Conference Finals "a whole bunch of times"; nothing is promised, and a lot can change for players and teams in a short period of time. Perhaps a mental health professional would say that Edwards has a mature response to losing, but I would argue that Edwards' attitude is not what one would expect from a champion or a potential champion. Michael Jordan and Kobe Bryant agonized after every season when they failed to win a title; again, maybe that is not the healthiest approach or the approach that a "normal" person might have, but perhaps champions are not "normal." There is a difference between winners and champions. Just making it to the NBA means that you are a winner--but very few NBA players become champions, and even fewer become the best player on a championship team. To become a champion, you have to feel at least a little hurt when you fall short. Maybe Edwards feels hurt but is too prideful to admit that publicly. By no means am I suggesting that he is not capable of leading a team to a title; he is too talented to write off at this early stage of his career. However, there are reasons to wonder about him based on how he plays and some of the things that he says. Edwards has had some great playoff performances, but he has also been outplayed by the other team's star in back to back Western Conference Finals, and those stars are young--Luka Doncic and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander--so Edwards will have to figure out how to beat his peers to win a championship; he is not in position to just inherit the top spot from older stars such as LeBron James, Kevin Durant, and Stephen Curry.

Julius Randle had 24 points on 8-14 field goal shooting plus five rebounds and three assists. Naz Reid added 11 points on 5-6 field goal shooting and a game-high tying three blocked shots in 24 minutes off of the bench. Terrence Shannon Jr. scored 11 points in 16 minutes off of the bench, and after the game Coach Chris Finch conceded that next season he may lengthen the rotation to give his young bench players more opportunities to contribute. 

The Timberwolves are a very good team, but not quite good enough to win a championship. It is interesting to note that their roster was built by Tim Connelly to beat the Denver Nuggets, whose roster Connelly built before coming to Minnesota. The Timberwolves defeated the Nuggets in the 2024 NBA playoffs, but this year the Timberwolves faced a Thunder team that eliminated the Nuggets, so it appears that Connelly may have to tweak his roster to deal with the Thunder's speed and defensive pressure, in contrast to the size and physicality that he assembled to attack Denver's big frontcourt.

The Thunder have reached the NBA Finals for the first time since 2012, when their young Kevin Durant-Russell Westbrook-James Harden trio lost 4-1 to the Miami Heat's "Big Three" of LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, and Chris Bosh. The Thunder look like a team that could be a contender for several years, but the 2012 Thunder represent a cautionary tale (and a tale that should be heeded by Edwards as well): that group never reached the NBA Finals again, with Harden fleeing for Houston after the 2012 NBA Finals run and then Durant joining Golden State's powerhouse team in 2016.

Labels: Alex Caruso, Anthony Edwards, Jalen Williams, Julius Randle, Minnesota Timberwolves, Oklahoma City Thunder, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

posted by David Friedman @ 11:49 AM

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Pacers Outrun Knicks, Take 3-1 Lead in Eastern Conference Finals

The Indiana Pacers hit the New York Knicks with a 43 point first quarter, and may have delivered a knockout blow with a 130-121 game four win to take a 3-1 lead in the Eastern Conference Finals; teams that lead a best of seven NBA playoff series 3-1 win the series more than 95% of the time. The Knicks outrebounded the Pacers 44-33, but the Pacers forced 17 turnovers while only committing 11 turnovers, and the Pacers scored 20 points off of turnovers while giving up just nine points off of turnovers. The Pacers outscored the Knicks 50-44 in the paint, and 22-9 on fast breaks. The Pacers shot 45-88 (.511) from the field, including 13-32 (.406) from three point range, and they held the Knicks to 38-82 (.463) field goal shooting, including 12-28 (.429) from three point range. 

Tyrese Haliburton authored a virtuoso, MVP level performance, posting game-high totals in scoring (32 points), rebounding (12 rebounds), and assists (15) while not committing a turnover in 38 minutes of high usage playing time. The NBA officially began tracking individual turnovers during the 1977-78 season; since that time, no player had accumulated at least 30 points, at least 15 assists, and at least 10 assists without a turnover in a playoff game until Haliburton accomplished that feat last night; the only other players who posted 30-15-10 lines in playoff games are Oscar Robertson and Nikola Jokic. In my Eastern Conference Finals series preview, I compared Haliburton's scoring and assist numbers to those posted by a young Magic Johnson--and then I still picked New York to win the series; perhaps I should have trusted my instincts/analysis about how special Haliburton is. Young Magic was a better rebounder than Haliburton but not as good of a three point shooter. In each of his first four playoff campaigns, Magic averaged between 17.0 ppg and 18.2 ppg and between 7.0 apg and 13.5 apg; this is just Haliburton's second playoff campaign, but he is averaging 19.4 ppg and a league-high 9.8 apg in the 2025 playoffs after averaging 18.7 ppg and 8.2 apg in the 2024 playoffs. During Magic's rookie season, he teamed up with Kareem Abdul-Jabbar--who is on the short list of candidates for the title of greatest basketball player of all-time--to lead the L.A. Lakers to the NBA title. Haliburton does not have the good fortune of playing with a dominant player like Abdul-Jabbar, but Haliburton is getting the most out of his current roster.

Pascal Siakam is the Pacers' security blanket. He is not flashy and he does not get as many touches as his talent seems to warrant, but when he has the ball he goes to work. His 30 points on 11-21 field goal shooting nicely complemented Haliburton's triple double. Aaron Nesmith was listed as questionable before the game because of the sprained ankle he suffered in game three, but he scored 16 points, played tough defense, and posted a game-high +20 plus/minus number. Bennedict Mathurin poured in 20 points in just 12 minutes off of the bench. Myles Turner added 13 points, three rebounds, and three blocked shots before fouling out. Obi Toppin scored just five points, but he probably took special delight in draining a three pointer with 46.3 seconds remaining in the fourth quarter to put the Pacers up 126-116, which not only sealed the game but most likely sealed his former team's fate in the series.  

Jalen Brunson led the Knicks with 31 points and five assists, but his -16 plus/minus number reflects how badly the Knicks hemorrhaged points when he was in the game; that is not entirely his fault, but part of the problem is that he can be successfully targeted defensively. Karl-Anthony Towns had 24 points and a game-high tying 12 rebounds; he and Coach Tom Thibodeau seem to be doomed to always be the whipping boys for the Knicks' real and perceived failures, but Towns was the only New York starter with a positive plus/minus number (+3). Yes, Towns committed some dumb fouls and he jacked up too many three pointers, but the Knicks did not lose this game during his minutes. OG Anubody scored 22 points and had a -1 plus/minus number. 

This game provided another example of how often the NBA is a first quarter league: Haliburton had 15 points and six assists in the first quarter as the Pacers scored 43 points on 15-22 (.682) field goal shooting, and even though those numbers were not sustainable for the rest of the game they provided a look at the matchup advantages that the Pacers would continue to exploit: the Pacers are at their best when they play an uptempo game, and they are able to play an uptempo game when they minimize their turnovers and when they push the ball quickly up the court after a make or a miss. The Knicks scored 35 points in the first quarter but just could not keep up with the frenetic Pacers, and that continued to be the case throughout the game. The Knicks led 2-0 and 5-3 but trailed for most of the game, including the entire second half. The Pacers deserve full credit for the many things that they did well, but it must be said that the Knicks suffered self-inflicted wounds as a result of sloppy ballhandling, bad fouls, missed defensive rotations, and questionable shot selection. 

This game marked the first time in this series that the home team won a game. With a win in New York on Thursday, the Pacers can close out the series and advance to the NBA Finals for the first time since 2000.

Labels: Aaron Nesmith, Indiana Pacers, Jalen Brunson, Karl-Anthony Towns, New York Knicks, Pascal Siakam, Tyrese Haliburton

posted by David Friedman @ 7:14 PM

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Thunder's Stars Outshine Timberwolves' Stars in Tightly Contested Game Four

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander scored a playoff career-high 40 points and Jalen William added a playoff career-high 34 points as the Oklahoma City Thunder outlasted the Minnesota Timberwolves 128-126 to take a 3-1 lead in the Western Conference Finals. Sports in general are very strategic, and basketball in particular is a game in which the smart take from the strong, but sometimes the game is simple: a team whose stars dominate has a great chance to win. Chet Holmgren, the Thunder's third option, scored as many points (21) as Minnesota's Anthony Edwards (16) and Julius Randle (five) combined.

Gilgeous-Alexander also had a game-high 10 assists, and a game-high tying nine rebounds. He did not shoot very efficiently (13-30, .433) and he had a game-high tying five turnovers, but--as we saw with Michael Jordan and Kobe Bryant--a team's best player has the responsibility to take a lot of shots because he will not only score but he will also attract defensive attention (only called "gravity" when Stephen Curry does it) that opens up opportunities for his teammates. One of the most impressive obscure statistics in pro basketball history is that Michael Jordan scored at least 20 points in 35 consecutive NBA Finals games. Jordan regularly faced double teams and triple teams, and he learned to pass the ball when necessary--but he always understood his responsibility to put up big scoring totals in every game, particularly in playoff games and NBA Finals games. Julius Erving scored at least 20 points in 26 straight Finals games (his last seven in the ABA and his first 19 in the NBA), and he scored at least 20 points in 31 of his 33 Finals games overall (10/11 in the ABA, 21/22 in the NBA). Jerry West ranks third with 25 straight NBA Finals games with at least 20 points.

Nickeil Alexander-Walker led the Timberwolves with 23 points, Jaden McDaniels scored 22 points, Donte DiVincenzo added 21 points, and Rudy Gobert contributed 13 points plus a game-high tying nine rebounds, but the problem is not just that Edwards only had 16 points in a de facto elimination game; the problem is that Edwards shot 5-13 from the field--and the low number of field goal attempts is at least as concerning as the poor field goal percentage, for the reason mentioned above: a team's best player must force the action at times. It sounds great to talk about "making the right play," but often the right play is attacking the opposing defense until it breaks; passively accepting a double team and then making a pass that does not threaten the defense is not "the right play," nor is it a winning play. Edwards and Randle each committed five turnovers, and Randle shot just 1-7 from the field; those numbers do not point to making the right play: they point to being tentative, indecisive, and careless with the ball. 

After Minnesota won game three 143-101 a lot was said about a momentum shift in this series. How much momentum carried over into game four? None. Momentum is something that talking heads mention in lieu of analyzing basketball strategy and matchups. In game three, Minnesota was the more aggressive team at both ends of the court, while Oklahoma City looked like a team that had relaxed after taking a 2-0 series lead. In contrast, the Thunder led 37-30 at the end of the first quarter of game four, scoring almost as many points in the first 12 minutes as they scored in the first 24 minutes of game three (41)--and the stars led the way, with Gilgeous-Alexander and Williams scoring 13 first quarter points each. The Timberwolves briefly led in the first quarter, but never by more than two points, and they did not lead at all in the final three quarters; the game remained close throughout--the Thunder's largest lead was only 11 points--but the outcome was never in serious doubt, because a team whose stars play passively throughout the game is not often rewarded with a win by the basketball gods.

Opposing fans call Gilgeous-Alexander a "foul merchant," which is an odd phrase. Is he being accused of selling fouls or buying fouls? Gilgeous-Alexander is not James Harden flopping and flailing while looking for bailout calls. Gilgeous-Alexander is aggressive, which all great offensive players are--and aggressive players draw fouls, which not only leads to free throws but also puts the opposing team in foul trouble. Edwards and Randle would be well-advised to match that level of aggressiveness to have any chance of extending this series beyond game five in Oklahoma City.

Labels: Anthony Edwards, Jalen Williams, Julius Randle, Minnesota Timberwolves, Oklahoma City Thunder, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

posted by David Friedman @ 1:02 AM

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Tale of Two Halves: Knicks Rally From 20 Point First Half Deficit to Edge Pacers

The New York Knicks rallied from a 20 point deficit for the third time in the 2025 playoffs, saving their season with a 106-100 win over the Indiana Pacers in game three of the Eastern Conference Finals. The Knicks can reclaim homecourt advantage by winning game four, but if they lose then they fall into a 3-1 deficit that is almost always a death sentence. The Knicks outscored the Pacers 61-42 in the second half and they held the Pacers to their lowest full game scoring total in the 2025 playoffs; the Pacers had scored at least 114 points in 10 of their first 12 playoff games this year and they won all 10 of those games, but they are now 0-3 when they score 104 points or less.

New York Coach Tom Thibodeau, who changes his lineups about as often as Halley's Comet appears, started Mitchell Robinson in place of Josh Hart to add size and paint defense. Robinson's numbers don't jump out of the boxscore (six points, six rebounds) but he had a +1 plus/minus number in 29 minutes. Karl-Anthony Towns was missing in action (or inaction to be precise) during the first three quarters when he had as many fouls (four) as points, but he poured in 20 fourth quarter points as the Knicks won the final stanza, 36-20. Towns finished with game-high totals in points (24), rebounds (15), turnovers (six), and fouls (five, a total matched by three other players). Foul trouble limited Jalen Brunson to 31 minutes and he struggled with his field goal shooting (6-18), but he made all 10 of his free throws to finish with 23 points, including the floater that gave the Knicks the lead for good with 1:17 left in the fourth quarter. OG Anunoby (16 points) and Mikal Bridges (15 points) made solid contributions, and Hart played his usual all-out hustle game with eight points, 10 rebounds, and four assists.

Tyrese Haliburton led the Pacers in scoring (20 points) and assists (game-high seven). Myles Turner added 19 points, four rebounds, three assists, and two blocked shots. Pascal Siakam did not come close to matching his playoff career-high 39 point outburst in game two, finishing with 17 points and a game-worst -21 plus/minus number. Game one hero Aaron Nesmith had eight points and seven rebounds; he had 20 points combined in games two and three after scoring a playoff career-high 30 points in game one.

Thibodeau's lineup change did not pay immediate dividends; the Pacers led 30-26 at the end of the first quarter, and then pushed that margin to 20 (55-35) with 3:20 remaining in the second quarter. However, the Knicks closed the first half with a 10-3 run to cut the deficit to a manageable 13 points, and then the Knicks won the third quarter 25-22 to set up Towns' fourth quarter onslaught.

The Pacers squandered a golden opportunity to knock out the Knicks, and after enjoying a 2-0 series lead plus a 20 point second quarter lead in game three they now face the reality that overall they have outscored the Knicks by just two points in three games; if the Knicks had not thrown away game one then they would enjoy a 2-1 series advantage.

"Momentum" is one of the biggest myths about the NBA playoffs; if any team had momentum in this series it was the Pacers before the Knicks took over in the second half of game three, but game four starts 0-0 and it will be interesting to see if the Knicks continue to play with high energy and great physicality or if the Pacers get their running game into high gear while rediscovering the three point shooting that abandoned them in game three (5-25, .200). I picked the Knicks to win in seven games, and the Knicks are one road win away from putting the series on that track; paradoxically, the Knicks are just 3-5 at home in the 2025 playoffs while posting a 6-1 road record.

Labels: Indiana Pacers, Jalen Brunson, Karl-Anthony Towns, Mitchell Robinson, New York Knicks, Pascal Siakam, Tyrese Haliburton

posted by David Friedman @ 2:47 AM

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Timberwolves Roll Over Thunder, 143-101

The Oklahoma City Thunder can cancel the coronation and the parade, at least for now--after convincingly taking a 2-0 Western Conference Finals lead versus the Minnesota Timberwolves, the Thunder suffered a historic loss in game three as the Timberwolves led by as much as 45 points before prevailing, 143-101. The Timberwolves led 72-41 at halftime, setting a franchise playoff record for most points in a half and tying the third largest halftime lead in a Conference Finals game since 1971. They also set the franchise record for most points in a playoff game, and broke the NBA record for largest victory margin in any game--regular season or playoffs--versus a team that won 65 or more games that season. This was the worst playoff loss in Thunder history, and the second biggest playoff win in Timberwolves history.

The Thunder opened the game with a 4-0 run before the Timberwolves hit them with an avalanche, storming to a 34-14 lead by the end of the first quarter. The 68-33 score late in the second quarter looked like a typographical error. The Thunder opened the third quarter with an 11-2 run, but the Timberwolves called a timeout and then answered with a 23-4 burst to put the game away. One of the ways that the Thunder dominate teams is by forcing more turnovers than they commit, and then transforming many of those turnovers into fast break points, but in this game the Timberwolves committed just 10 turnovers leading to 15 points while forcing 14 turnovers resulting in 16 points. 

Anthony Edwards scored a game-high 30 points in just under 30 minutes while also leading both teams in rebounding (nine) and assists (six). Julius Randle bounced back from an awful game two, scoring 24 points on 9-15 field goal shooting. Terrence Shannon Jr. scored 15 points off of the bench in just 13 minutes; it is safe to assume that he did not receive much attention in the Thunder's scouting report, but he had nine of his points in the second quarter to help the Timberwolves blow the game open.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, the NBA's regular season MVP and scoring champion, led the Thunder with just 14 points and a game-high tying six assists. Ajay Mitchell scored all 14 of his points in fourth quarter garbage time minutes. Jalen Williams had 13 points.

ESPN's Mike Breen correctly noted that the team that eventually wins the NBA championship sometimes has a blowout loss during their title run, and he said that in the moment that the blowout loss happens it is "shocking." One example that I remember from my childhood is the dominant 1982 L.A. Lakers who went 12-2 in the playoffs, including a 9-0 start after winning their final three regular season games. The Lakers did not lose a game from April 13-May 30 before Julius Erving's Philadelphia 76ers beat them 110-94 in game two of the NBA Finals; after the Lakers defeated the 76ers by 21 and 10 in the next two games they got blasted 135-102 before capturing the title with a 114-104 game six win as Magic Johnson logged a 13-13-13 triple double to win his second NBA Finals MVP in the first three seasons of his career. Losing a blowout does not guarantee winning a championship, of course; the point is that a blowout loss is not necessarily a sign that a team cannot or will not win a championship.

This game is a great reminder of how difficult it is for even a dominant team to sweep a best of seven playoff series, and it brought to mind the question of how often some of the greatest players of all-time won in sweeps (and how often they were swept). I looked up the playoff records of four members of my basketball Pantheon, choosing a dominant player who started his career in the 1970s (Julius Erving), the 1980s (Michael Jordan), the 1990s (Kobe Bryant), and the 2000s (LeBron James).

Julius Erving posted a 24-13 career playoff series record while winning three championships. He logged six sweeps in best of seven series (including the 1983 NBA Finals, the first NBA Finals sweep since 1975), and his teams were never swept (he had four 2-0 sweeps and was never swept 2-0). Michael Jordan had a 30-7 career playoff series record while winning six championships. He had three sweeps in best of seven series and was never swept in a best of seven series (he had six 3-0 sweeps and lost 3-0 twice). Kobe Bryant had a 33-10 career playoff series record while winning five championships. Bryant had five sweeps in best of seven series and he was swept three times in best of seven series (he also had two 3-0 sweeps and was never swept 3-0). LeBron James has a 41-14 career playoff series record while winning four championships. James has 12 sweeps in best of seven series and he was swept three times in best of seven series, including twice in the NBA Finals.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is just a babe in the NBA playoff woods. He has a 3-3 career playoff series record, including two sweeps in best of seven series; he has never been swept, and his teams have won at least two games in all seven of his playoff series (including the 2025 Western Conference Finals, with his Thunder currently leading 2-1). It will be interesting to watch those numbers over the next decade or so. Anthony Edwards has a 3-4 career playoff series record with one sweep and no times being swept. We will find out soon enough if Edwards' Timberwolves will make this a competitive series by winning game four, or if they will be content to avoid being swept.

Labels: Anthony Edwards, Jalen Williams, Julius Randle, Minnesota Timberwolves, Oklahoma City Thunder, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

posted by David Friedman @ 1:02 AM

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Siakam If You Got 'Em: Siakam Slams Knicks as Pacers Take 2-0 Series Lead

Pascal Siakam scored a playoff career-high 39 points on 15-23 field goal shooting to lead the Indiana Pacers to a 114-109 win over the New York Knicks in game two of the Eastern Conference Finals. Siakam is an NBA champion, a two-time All-NBA Team member, and a three-time All-Star, and his value may be overlooked by casual fans, but he has played a major role in the Pacers' tremendous 2025 playoff run. Myles Turner added 16 points, while Tyrese Haliburton ran the show with 14 points, a game-high tying 11 assists, and a team-high eight rebounds. Game one hero Aaron Nesmith contributed 12 points and seven rebounds. T.J. McConnell scored 10 points and passed for four assists in just 14 minutes off of the bench. The Pacers ranked 17th in points allowed and 23rd in defensive field goal percentage during the regular season, and they rank 13th and seventh respectively in those categories during the 16 team playoffs, but that might turn out to be good enough to win the Eastern Conference when paired with the Pacers' high octane offense.

Jalen Brunson scored a team-high 36 points and passed for a game-high tying 11 assists, but he could not quite bring the Knicks back from a 10 point fourth quarter deficit. Mikal Bridges had 20 points and seven rebounds in a game-high 45 minutes. Karl-Anthony Towns also had 20 points and seven rebounds, but he posted a team-worst -20 plus/minus number, and he scored just two fourth quarter points while sitting out more than half of the final stanza. A major problem for the Knicks is that their two best offensive players--Brunson and Towns--are defensive liabilities who are regularly targeted by opposing teams. Mitchell Robinson had a strong game off of the bench, muscling his way to a game-high nine rebounds in 29 minutes. He also had an impact defensively with a game-high three blocked shots and a forceful presence in the paint, but he scored just six points; if the Knicks could combine Robinson's defense/rebounding with Towns' offense into one player then they would have something special--and they likely would not be trailing 2-0 in this series.

The Knicks led 52-49 at halftime, but their defense collapsed in the second half as the Pacers scored 65 points on 23-41 (.561) field goal shooting. Brunson (19 points) and Bridges (17 points) were the two leading individual scorers in the second half, but Indiana's balanced and efficient attack carried the day as Siakam (16 points), Turner (14 points), and Haliburton (12 points) each scored in double figures in the second half.

The Pacers have won six straight road playoff games, including three versus the Eastern Conference's top seeded Cleveland Cavaliers; in contrast, the Knicks are just 3-5 at home in the 2025 playoffs, and they need to win at least one game in Indiana just to get a chance to add to that home win total.

Labels: Indiana Pacers, Jalen Brunson, Karl-Anthony Towns, New York Knicks, Pascal Siakam, Tyrese Haliburton

posted by David Friedman @ 12:55 AM

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Thunder Rout Timberwolves After Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Receives MVP Trophy

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander received his 2025 NBA regular season MVP trophy prior to game two of the Western Conference Finals, and then he reminded everyone why he deserved the award: he scored a game-high/playoff career-high tying 38 points on 12-21 field goal shooting while leading the Oklahoma City Thunder to a 118-103 win over the Minnesota Timberwolves to take a 2-0 series lead. ESPN's Tim Legler said that not all 2-0 leads are created equal, adding that this one feels "heavier" than others--and that is an apt way of describing how outmatched the Timberwolves appear to be. Maybe the Timberwolves will find a way to win game three at home, but it is an understatement to say that beating the Thunder is a daunting task.

Gilgeous-Alexander not only scored prolifically and efficiently, but he also had a game-high eight assists while committing just one turnover as the Thunder again dominated the possession game: the Thunder scored 22 points off of 14 Timberwolves turnovers while giving up just 10 points off of their eight turnovers. Jalen Williams had 26 points, a game-high 10 rebounds, and five assists. Chet Holmgren added 22 points, many of them on strong cuts to the hoop. 

Anthony Edwards led Minnesota in scoring (32 points), rebounding (nine), and assists (six), but he did not have enough help. Jaden McDaniels scored 22 points and Nickeil Alexander-Walker added 17 points off of the bench, but Julius Randle had such a miserable game (six points on 2-11 field goal shooting) that he was benched for the entire fourth quarter.

The Thunder held the Timberwolves to 36-87 (.414) field goal shooting, including 11-39 (.282) from beyond the arc. The Thunder have a host of elite defensive players, led by Lu Dort-- who just earned his first All-Defensive Team selection--and Jalen Williams, a first-time All-Star in 2025 who also just earned his first All-Defensive Team selection. Alex Caruso made the All-Defensive Team each of the previous two seasons but did not qualify for selection this season because he only played in 54 regular season games.

This was not quite a wire to wire win--Minnesota briefly held two point and one point leads during the first half--but the Thunder led for most of this game, including the entire second half. The Timberwolves trailed 58-50 at halftime, a deficit that looked manageable, and they cut the margin to four a couple times before the Thunder closed the third quarter with a 23-7 run to lead 93-71 heading into the final stanza. The Thunder led by double digits for the entire fourth quarter.

Through the first two games of this series, the Thunder's athleticism and relentless defensive pressure have overwhelmed the Timberwolves, and the Timberwolves have not effectively used the size and physicality that helped them win playoff series versus the L.A. Lakers and Golden State Warriors. Julius Randle excelled in game one but disappeared in game two, while Anthony Edwards had a subpar game one by his lofty standards before playing well in game two. The young Thunder sometimes seem to be jittery at the start of games, but they generally calm down quickly before asserting their dominance in the third quarter. The Timberwolves will need to get outstanding performances from both Edwards and Randle plus more contributions from the supporting cast to win game three.

Labels: Anthony Edwards, Jalen Williams, Julius Randle, Minnesota Timberwolves, Oklahoma City Thunder, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

posted by David Friedman @ 11:19 AM

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Nesmith Nails Eight Three Pointers as Pacers Stun Knicks in Overtime

In game one of the Eastern Conference Finals, the All-Stars from both teams shined under the bright lights of Madison Square Garden, but Aaron Nesmith stole the show by scoring 20 of his playoff career-high 30 points in the fourth quarter as the Indiana Pacers rallied from a 14 point deficit to force overtime before prevailing over the New York Knicks, 138-135. Teams leading by at least 14 points in the final 2:45 of the fourth quarter had been 994-0 since detailed play-by-play information began being tracked in 1997-98, so it is not an exaggeration to call this the greatest and most improbable playoff comeback in at least the past 27 years. This win is a reversal of Eastern Conference Finals fortune for the Pacers, who squandered a golden opportunity to win game one on the road last year versus the Boston Celtics; the Celtics swept the Pacers en route to winning their first NBA championship since 2008.

Nesmith ranked 10th in the NBA in three point field goal percentage (career-high .431) during the regular season, and he led the Pacers in three point field goals made (27) in the 2025 playoffs prior to game one, but those numbers did not suggest that he would tie an NBA playoff record by nailing six three pointers in the fourth quarter or that he would break Indiana's playoff record by hitting eight three pointers in a game. Nesmith did not score in the overtime, but he did his part to carry the Pacers that far, and then Andrew Nembhard (seven overtime points) and Obi Toppin (four overtime points) finished the job after the Knicks took a 129-125 overtime lead.

Tyrese Haliburton scored a team-high 31 points, dished for a team-high 11 assists, and had some late game heroics of his own, drilling a shot with his foot on the three point line as time expired in regulation, tying the score at 125. Hitting clutch shots is nothing new for Haliburton, who has made five shots to tie or take the lead in the fourth quarter or overtime in this year's playoffs alone, the most such shots in a single postseason since 1997. After beating the buzzer to send the game to overtime, Haliburton thought that he had made a game-winning three pointer, so he did the "choke" sign as an homage to Reggie Miller doing the "choke" sign at Madison Square Garden during the Pacers' win in game five of the 1994 Eastern Conference Finals. Haliburton's premature celebration turned out to be prophetic, but it is worth remembering that the Pacers have a history of premature celebrations gone wrong. Miller scored 25 fourth quarter points in game five in 1994, but the Pacers lost the next two games to choke away a 3-2 series lead, and they lost in the Eastern Conference Finals three times in the next five years--sandwiched around a first round loss in 1996 and missing the playoffs in 1997--before finally reaching the NBA Finals in 2000. Miller should have learned his lesson earlier in the 1994 season: he bowed to the Chicago crowd after hitting a go ahead shot with less than one second remaining only to watch Toni Kukoc nail the game-winning three pointer on the next possession, after which the Bulls' Steve Kerr bowed toward Miller. The Pacers may want to ease up on the celebrations at least until they win a championship, something that the franchise has not accomplished since capturing the 1973 ABA title.

Pascal Siakam, a key member of Toronto's 2019 championship team, had 17 points, six assists, and five rebounds. Andrew Nembhard (15 points, four rebounds, four assists) and Myles Turner (14 points, five rebounds) made solid contributions at both ends of the court.

Jalen Brunson poured in a game-high 43 points on 15-25 field goal shooting and he passed for five assists, but he also had a game-high seven turnovers. He scored 10 points in the fourth quarter and six points in the overtime. Karl-Anthony Towns scored 35 points on 11-17 field goal shooting, and he grabbed 12 rebounds. Towns scored 13 fourth quarter points and he scored two points in the overtime. Josh Hart had a game-high 13 rebounds and a team-high seven assists along with eight points. Mikal Bridges and OG Anunoby scored 16 points each.

The Knicks led for most of the game, they outrebounded the Pacers 46-39, and they outscored the Pacers in the paint 62-50--but the Knicks committed 15 turnovers that the Pacers converted into 27 points while the Pacers had just seven turnovers and gave up just four points off of turnovers. If the Knicks had taken better care of the basketball and not given up 38 fourth quarter points then they would have won this game by double digits.

If this were the NCAA Tournament then the Pacers would survive and advance while the Knicks' season would be over--but an NBA playoff series is a race to four wins, so we will find out soon enough if this was a fluke win by an inferior team or if the Pacers are the better and tougher team. 

Labels: Aaron Nesmith, Indiana Pacers, Jalen Brunson, Karl-Anthony Towns, New York Knicks, Pascal Siakam, Tyrese Haliburton

posted by David Friedman @ 12:00 PM

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Thunder Storm Past Timberwolves 114-88 in Game One of the Western Conference Finals

The Oklahoma City Thunder are not infallible, but they may be unbeatable--at least in a seven game series. The Minnesota Timberwolves led the Thunder 47-38 with 1:14 remaining in the second quarter of game one of the Western Conference Finals, but the Thunder won 114-88; that is a 35 point swing in a little over 24 minutes. This game was very much a tale of two halves: the Timberwolves won the first half 48-44, and then the Thunder won the second half 70-40. The overall numbers told a story of Thunder domination, as the Thunder outscored the Timberwolves 54-20 in the paint, 31-10 in points off of turnovers, and 12-0 in fast break points. The Thunder shot 41-82 (.500) from the field while holding the Timberwolves to 29-83 (.349) field goal shooting. 

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander personified how the Thunder performed: he scored 11 first half points on 2-13 field goal shooting, and then poured in 20 second half points on 8-14 field goal shooting. He ended up with a game-high 31 points on 10-27 field goal shooting along with a game-high nine assists plus five rebounds and three steals. A "stat guru" may not understand why not all 10-27 shooting performances are created equal, but there is a difference between forcing shots/taking bad shots and missing good shots before getting into a rhythm. It is also worth emphasizing that Gilgeous-Alexander attempted 14 free throws and just four three pointers; he is a master of the supposedly inefficient midrange game, which is the area that Michael Jordan and Kobe Bryant dominated en route to winning six championships and five championships respectively. In the playoffs, a star player cannot always get to the hoop and he should not rely too heavily on high variance three point shooting: the midrange area is very important for winning playoff games.

Gilgeous-Alexander's All-Star sidekick Jalen Williams contributed 19 points, eight rebounds, five assists, and five steals. Chet Holmgren (15 points on 6-9 field goal shooting, seven rebounds, two blocked shots) and Isaiah Hartenstein (12 points on 6-8 field goal shooting, five rebounds) held up well versus Minnesota's big and aggressive frontcourt. Cason Wallace (three points, seven assists), Alex Caruso (nine points), and Isaiah Joe (seven points, eight rebounds) made solid contributions off of the bench.

Julius Randle scored 20 first half points on 6-8 field goal shooting (including 5-6 from beyond the arc), but in the second half the Thunder ran him off of the three point line (he did not attempt even one second half trey) while holding him to eight points on 3-5 field goal shooting. His 28 points on 9-13 field goal shooting look more "efficient" than Gilgeous-Alexander's, but Bill Russell once sagely noted that when a player scores can be as important as how much he scores; he was referring specifically to Julius Erving's uncanny ability to score timely baskets, but this wisdom has broader applications, even though "stat gurus" will insist that a basket scored in the first minute of a game, a basket scored at the end of a 20 point blowout, and a basket scored in the closing seconds of a game when trailing by one point all have the same value. If you played the game or even just understand the game at anything more than the most basic level then you know that all baskets don't have the same value, and you know that there are many players who will happily attempt the first two kinds of shots but want no part of attempting a shot when trailing in the closing seconds of a game.

Anthony Edwards was Minnesota's only other double figure scorer (18 points on 5-13 field goal shooting, game-high nine rebounds), and after the game he candidly admitted that he did not shoot the ball often enough. From a percentage standpoint, Edwards' 5-13 field goal shooting and Gilgeous-Alexander's 10-27 field goal shooting are virtually identical, but the reality of championship level basketball is that a team's star player has an obligation to be productive even more so than he has an obligation to be "efficient." Edwards is right that he should have shot more often, and he deserves credit for admitting that, as opposed to some stars who use passive/aggressive language to deflect attention away from their flawed performances and toward their teammates' real or imagined shortcomings. It is the star's responsibility to lead the way; that is why the stars get the big bucks and most of the credit when things go well. 

The Timberwolves are at their best when they attack the paint, but they played an out of character game by attempting 51 three point shots and only 32 two point shots; such a drastic imbalance is not a recipe for success for any team, and particularly not a team whose strength is its size and strength. The Timberwolves went small in the fourth quarter--center Rudy Gobert did not play at all--and the Thunder outscored them, 38-22. Going small against a team that feeds off of turnovers and open court play did not go well and will not go well. The simple fact is that teams that play small ball do not win NBA titles. Even the Golden State Warriors teams that won four NBA titles from 2015-22 had serviceable big men who played consistent rotation minutes, not to mention that the "small forward" on two of their championship teams is actually seven feet tall.

It is not likely--although not impossible--that the Thunder will win every game by double digit margins, but it seems improbable that any team in the NBA can win four games out of seven versus the Thunder. Their season-long statistical profile screams "NBA Champion," and the eye test suggests that only one of the great teams from the past could withstand the combination of the Thunder's relentless defensive pressure and efficient offensive execution that does not rely on jacking up three pointers. 

Labels: Anthony Edwards, Jalen Williams, Julius Randle, Minnesota Timberwolves, Oklahoma City Thunder, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

posted by David Friedman @ 1:16 AM

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Oklahoma City Versus Minnesota Preview

Western Conference Finals

#1 Oklahoma City (68-14) vs. #6 Minnesota (49-33)

Season series: Tied, 2-2

Minnesota can win if… Anthony Edwards is the best player in the series, if the Timberwolves control the paint, and if the Timberwolves are not careless with the ball.

Edwards averaged a team-high 26.2 ppg, 7.6 rpg (second on the team), and 5.6 apg (second on the team) in Minnesota's 4-1 second round series win versus the Golden State Warriors. Julius Randle also had an outstanding series versus the Warriors, leading the team in assists (7.4 apg) while ranking second in scoring (25.2 ppg) and third in rebounding (6.6 rpg). A lot of nonsense is spouted about why the Timberwolves should reduce Rudy Gobert's role, but Gobert dominated the paint against the Warriors, averaging 9.6 ppg on .643 field goal shooting while leading Minnesota in rebounding (9.4 rpg) and blocked shots (1.8 bpg).

The Timberwolves are a big, physical team, so it is not surprising that they rank second in the playoffs in points allowed (101.1 ppg) and fourth in defensive field goal percentage (.433). Gobert anchors the defense in the paint, while Jaden McDaniels is a stopper on the wing. Donte DiVincenzo (team-high 1.7 spg in the playoffs) and Edwards are good defenders, and veteran point guard Mike Conley is a savvy player at both ends of the court.

The Timberwolves reached the Western Conference Finals last year by knocking off the defending NBA champion Denver Nuggets, so it should not be surprising that they are in the Western Conference Finals again--but they had a .500 record (17-17) on January 4, and that sluggish start may have made a lasting impression on commentators even though the Timberwolves went 8-1 to end the season. I count myself among those who underestimated them before the playoffs began.

They have committed the fifth most turnovers per game (14.8) among this year's 16 playoff teams; the four teams that committed more turnovers per game--Memphis, Detroit, Miami, and Denver--have been eliminated, with all but Denver losing in the first round. Poor decision making in general and careless ballhandling in particular are two major areas of concern for Minnesota. The Timberwolves rank fourth in playoff field goal percentage (.465) and sixth in scoring (108.2 ppg), so when they take care of the ball they score very efficiently. 

Oklahoma City will win because…the Thunder are more talented, deeper, more athletic, and more efficient.

The skepticism about the Thunder is increasingly difficult to understand: they have a great player who is unselfish and plays at a high level on offense and on defense, they have a talented and well-balanced starting lineup, and they may have the league's deepest bench. They posted one of the best regular season records in NBA history (68-14) and set the all-time record for point differential (12.9 ppg), breaking a mark (12.3 ppg) held by the legendary 1971-72 L.A. Lakers team that featured Hall of Famers Wilt Chamberlain, Jerry West, and Gail Goodrich.

The Denver Nuggets fought valiantly to push the Thunder to seven games in the second round, but the
Thunder overwhelmed the Nuggets 125-93 in game seven. During that series, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander led the Thunder in minutes (37.6 mpg), scoring (29.7 ppg), and assists (6.6 apg) while also averaging 6.4 rpg (third on the team), 1.6 spg (tied for second on the team), and .6 bpg (tied for fourth on the team). His shooting splits were .529/.333/.825. Last season, he finished second in regular season MVP voting to three-time MVP Nikola Jokic, and it is reasonable to believe that he will finish first ahead of Jokic this season. Gilgeous-Alexander is not flashy--his game does not feature an abundance of dunks, three pointers, or fancy moves--but his game is brutally efficient and fundamentally sound at both ends of the court. The Thunder appear to have exquisite team chemistry, and as the team's best player and unquestioned leader Gilgeous-Alexander deserves a lot of credit for that.

In 2025, Jalen Williams made the All-Star team for the first time, and he set career-highs in scoring (21.6 ppg), rebounding (5.3 rpg), and assists (5.1 apg). He has been inconsistent during the playoffs, with scoring totals ranging from 6 to 32, but overall he has been productive, ranking second on the team in scoring (19.6 ppg) and assists (5.7 apg) while ranking fourth in rebounding (5.4 rpg). The Thunder will need for him to score 20-plus ppg versus the Timberwolves. 

The rail-thin Chet Holmgren is the Thunder's third leading playoff scorer (15.7 ppg), and he leads the team in rebounding (9.7 rpg) and blocked shots (2.2 bpg). The big and rugged Isaiah Hartenstein leads the team in playoff field goal percentage (.605) while also ranking second in rebounding (8.7 rpg) and fourth in assists (2.8 apg); he is not only a lob threat at the rim but he can also run the offense at times from the high post, passing to cutters. 

Alex Caruso is the Thunder's oldest player (31 years old) and the only player on the team with championship experience. He is a feisty and smart defensive player who leads the team in playoff steals (1.8 spg) while also shooting .417 from three point range. His scrappy post defense versus Jokic in game seven contributed to the Thunder run that broke the game open.

Other things to consider: In my 2024 Western Conference Finals Preview, I praised the way that the Timberwolves constructed their team:

While other franchises try to "tank to the top" or assemble "super teams," the Timberwolves built their roster organically. Tim Connelly, who laid the foundation of the Denver Nuggets' championship success before becoming Minnesota's President of Basketball Operations, assembled the Timberwolves' roster with the understanding that size matters in the NBA at both ends of the court. "Stat gurus" mocked Connelly's trade for Rudy Gobert, but Connelly did not panic after the Timberwolves lost 4-1 to the Denver Nuggets in the 2023 playoffs. Connelly ignored the noise about Gobert being unplayable in today's "pace and space" NBA--noise that could still be heard during the second round of this year's playoffs before the Timberwolves won games six and seven to send the Nuggets home for the summer. 

In contrast, the Thunder tanked for two seasons (2020-22). Historically, it has been proven that tanking does not work, so if the Thunder cap their tremendous season with a championship then they will be the first NBA team to "tank to the top" (the premature and inaccurate description applied to Philadelphia's disastrous tanking)--but what the Thunder did differs from what most other tanking teams did because the Thunder did not embrace tanking and denied (and still deny) that they ever tanked; it could be argued that this is a distinction without a difference, but one of the problems with tanking is that it infects a franchise with a losing culture by accepting the notion that trying to win every game does not matter. The 76ers embraced what they called "The Process," and their franchise still displays a losing mentality on and off of the court, as demonstrated by--among other things--load management, and key players not being in peak condition. In contrast, the Thunder made personnel moves that strongly suggested that they were tanking but those moves could also be interpreted as their attempt to build the best roster around budding young star Gilgeous-Alexander. There is no doubt that Coach Mark Daigneault has cultivated a winning culture, and it appears that he started doing so from day one, even when he was saddled with a roster that was not capable of winning very much.

Hopefully, if the Thunder win an NBA title this will not be considered a justification of tanking, because tanking cheats paying fans while demeaning and diminishing the value of competition. The NBA was much better when load management and tanking did not exist.

Regardless of how one feels about how the Thunder assembled their team, there is no denying how strong this team is, nor is there any denying that the Thunder have the edge in this matchup in the most relevant categories: the Thunder have the best player in the series (if not the entire league), they have a better offense, they led the NBA in defensive field goal percentage during the regular season and during the playoffs, and they have enough size to match up with any team.

Oklahoma City will defeat Minnesota in six games.

Labels: Alex Caruso, Anthony Edwards, Chet Holmgren, Jalen Williams, Julius Randle, Minnesota Timberwolves, Oklahama City Thunder, Rudy Gobert, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

posted by David Friedman @ 8:46 PM

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Thunder Crush Nuggets 125-93, Advance to Western Conference Finals

The Denver Nuggets won game six at home to push the Oklahoma City Thunder to the brink, but the Thunder dominated game seven, 125-93, to advance to the Western Conference Finals for the first time since 2016. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander authored another exceptional performance, pouring in a game-high 35 points (just three short of his playoff career-high) on 12-19 field goal shooting while dishing out four assists. Jalen Williams, who struggled for significant portions of this series, scored 24 points and passed for a game-high tying seven assists. Chet Holmgren added 13 points and a game-high tying 11 rebounds. Alex Caruso chipped in 11 points on 5-7 field goal shooting, but his game-high +40 plus/minus number hints at the large impact that he had beyond the boxscore numbers: he was a menace as an on-ball defender versus Denver's perimeter players, he swarmed the passing lanes as a help defender, and on several possessions he even guarded Nikola Jokic one on one.

Jokic had a solid game by normal human standards--20 points, nine rebounds, game-high tying seven assists--but the Thunder's suffocating defense shut down his teammates without giving him the space to do much damage as a scorer. Jokic had a game-high five turnovers, and it often looked like the Thunder had an extra defensive player on the court; the Nuggets struggled to complete a pass, and they shot just 33-84 (.393) from the field, including 10-45 (.222) from three point range. Christian Braun scored 19 points on 7-14 field goal shooting. Aaron Gordon limped through a grade two hamstring strain--Jokic said that he told Gordon to not play because he risked making the injury even more serious--to finish with eight points and a game-high tying 11 rebounds. Jamal Murry had just 13 points on 6-16 field goal shooting. No other Nugget scored more than six points, and it is worth noting that Gilgeous-Alexander outscored the Nuggets' top two players--Jokic and Murray--by himself.

Russell Westbrook is the eighth highest paid Nugget ($3.3 million, the minimum salary for a 10 year veteran), but the "experts" and the social media crowd will no doubt find some way to pin the loss on him. I've never heard of a team's eighth highest paid player being the deciding factor between winning and losing as the fourth seeded team versus a dominant top seeded 68 win team, but ridiculous anti-Westbrook narratives have become standard fare in NBA circles. For the series, Westbrook ranked fifth on the team in scoring (9.9 ppg), eighth in rebounds (2.7 rpg), sixth in minutes played (22.7 mpg), and tied for fourth in assists (2.4 apg). He has always been a rhythm player who is used to having the ball in his hands, so those numbers are in line with his role and his salary slot. His shooting splits (.348/.219/.696) were poor, but only three Nuggets who played rotation minutes shot better than .440 from the field (Nikola Jokic, Julian Strawther, Aaron Gordon) so the Thunder deserve credit for shutting down the Nuggets' offense. Westbrook averaged 11.7 ppg in the 2025 playoffs (fifth on the team) while contributing 2.6 apg (fourth), 3.7 rpg (sixth) and .9 spg (fourth) with .391/.317/.700 shooting splits. Westbrook has a player option for $3.5 million next season, and it is unlikely that the cash-strapped Nuggets can find a more productive player at that price.

The Thunder outscored the Nuggets 64-42 in the paint, 27-14 on the fast break, and 37-7 in points off of turnovers. The Nuggets jumped out to a 21-10 lead at the 5:31 mark of the first quarter before the Thunder reeled them in and then ran them into the ground; the Thunder ended the second quarter with a 28-14 run to take a 60-46 halftime lead, and the Thunder opened the third quarter by outscoring the Nuggets 21-12 to end all resistance. The Thunder pushed the margin as high as 43 points late in the fourth quarter, and the outcome was never in doubt throughout the second half.

The Nuggets used their size to dominate the paint in a 121-119 game one win to seize homecourt advantage, and the Nuggets led the series 2-1 after prevailing 113-104 in game three but, as is usually the case in a seven game series, the team with the most matchup advantages prevailed. I picked the Thunder to win in six games because I expected that the Thunder's "suffocating defense will rule the day," and even though it took the Thunder seven games instead of six the seventh game highlighted the huge gap between these teams: the Thunder have the right personnel and game plan to at least contain Jokic at times, while the Nuggets can barely run a functioning halfcourt offense versus the Thunder's relentless pressure. ESPN's Scott Van Pelt often referred to the Thunder as a "wagon" during the regular season, but in game seven the Thunder looked like a high speed train racing past a broken down jalopy.

Labels: Aaron Gordon, Alex Caruso, Denver Nuggets, Jalen Williams, Jamal Murray, Nikola Jokic, Oklahoma City Thunder, Russell Westbrook, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

posted by David Friedman @ 8:40 AM

12 comments

New York Versus Indiana Preview

Eastern Conference Finals

#3 New York (51-31) vs. #4 Indiana (50-32)

Season series: New York, 2-1

Indiana can win if…the Pacers' up-tempo offense breaks down New York's defense and wears down New York's players. The Pacers ranked seventh in the league in scoring (117.4 ppg) and third in field goal percentage (.488) during the regular season, and so far in the playoffs they rank second in scoring (117.7 ppg) and first in field goal percentage (.501). Their fast pace and excellent shooting stretches defenses and puts pressure on opposing players to keep up mentally and physically. 

The Pacers started the season a sluggish 6-9, but ended it a sizzling 12-3. They destroyed the East-leading 64-18 Cleveland Cavaliers in five games in the second round, winning game five 114-105 and holding the Cavaliers to 114.2 ppg on .426 field goal shooting during the series. The Cavaliers led the NBA in regular season scoring (121.9 ppg) while ranking second in field goal percentage (.491), so the Pacers appear to be improving defensively at the most important time. The Pacers are not known as a bruising team, but they pushed around the Cavaliers' vaunted double big lineup featuring 2025 Defensive Player of the Year Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen. 

Tyrese Haliburton led the NBA in assists in the 2023-24 season with a career-high 10.9 apg, he ranked third in the league in assists this season (9.2 apg), and he is currently leading the league in assists during the playoffs (9.3 apg). His scoring and assist numbers are like those posted by a young Magic Johnson, but Johnson was a big-time rebounder while the third way that Haliburton impacts the game is three point shooting, leading the team in three point field goals made in the regular season (218) and tying for second in that category (22) so far during the playoffs. 

Pascal Siakam is not flashy, but he is effective and he has championship experience with the 2019 Toronto Raptors. He led the Pacers in scoring during the regular season (20.2 ppg), and he is leading the Pacers in scoring during the playoffs (18.8 ppg). He leads the Pacers in playoff field goal percentage (.547) after shooting .519 during the regular season, and he is second in rebounding (6.2 rpg, just behind Aaron Nesmith's 6.5 rpg). 

Myles Turner ranks third on the team in playoff scoring (16.5 ppg) and rebounding (6.0 rpg) while leading the league in blocked shots (2.5 bpg).

Five Pacers are averaging at least 29 mpg during the playoffs, and four of them (Andrew Nembhard, Pascal Siakam, Aaron Nesmith, and Myles Turner) are shooting at least .505 from the field, while the fifth (Haliburton) is shooting .474.

New York will win because…the Knicks will slow the pace, keep the games close, and rely on the clutch time heroics of Jalen Brunson, who ranks fifth in the NBA in playoff scoring (28.8 ppg) and seems to make every crucial shot in the last five minutes of close games.

Brunson is built like an NFL safety, and his game is a mixture of physicality, finesse, shooting touch, slick passing, and overall savvy. He does not seem to move fast or jump high, but he has mastered perhaps the key skill for any great offensive player: change of pace. Brunson knows how to get defenders off balance to create openings and also to draw fouls. There is so much talk about Dallas' midseason trade of All-NBA player Luka Doncic for All-NBA player Anthony Davis, but little is said about Dallas lowballing Brunson and losing him for nothing in free agency in 2022. That may turn out to be the worst player personnel move in Mavericks history, which is saying a lot considering that the Mavericks have lost or given up on Steve Nash and Luka Doncic while also breaking up their 2011 NBA championship team, which led to not advancing past the first round of the playoffs from 2012-2021.

Both of the Knicks' major offseason moves have paid dividends. It can be debated if Mikal Bridges is worth five first round draft picks, but there is no doubt that he has been productive during the regular season (17.6 ppg) and the playoffs (14.8 ppg) while playing heavy minutes and not missing any games. After being acquired from Minnesota in exchange for Julius Randle and Donte DiVincenzo, Karl-Anthony Towns ranked second on the Knicks in scoring (24.4 ppg) during the regular season while finishing second in the league in rebounding (career-high 12.8 rpg), and he is second on the team in playoff scoring (19.6 ppg) while placing fifth in the league in playoff rebounding (11.3 rpg).

OG Anunoby is averaging 15.1 ppg during the playoffs as a solid third scoring option, while Josh Hart chips in with scoring (13.5 ppg), rebounding (8.3 rpg), and assists (4.6 apg). Hart is the Knick most likely to get a triple double and most likely to get a floor burn.

During the regular season, the fact-based narrative about the Knicks was that they could not beat the teams ahead of them in the standings. That narrative has been forgotten after the Knicks took a 2-0 lead versus the 2024 NBA champion Boston Celtics, and then finished off the Celtics with a 119-81 game five rout after the Celtics lost Jayson Tatum to a ruptured right Achilles near the end of game four. 

Coach Tom Thibodeau is often criticized for shortening his rotation and playing his starters for too many minutes, but the two pillars of his coaching style--trust your best players, and try to win every game--are preferable to the load management, tanking, and other shenanigans that have infested the league.

Other things to consider: New York took a 3-2 lead versus Indiana in the second round last year after Jalen Brunson scored 44 points in a 121-91 game five win. Indiana won game six at home, and then demolished the injury-depleted Knicks 130-109 in game seven; by the end of game seven, five of New York's top eight rotation players were unavailable due to injury. It is fair to argue that a healthy New York team would have beaten Indiana last season, and that a healthy New York team should be expected to beat Indiana this season.

Towns provides the Knicks with size in the paint and elite rebounding, but he also stretches defenses with his three point shooting. He seems to drift at times and just float through games, but if he is focused he can have a big impact during this series. His former team returned to the Western Conference Finals without him, so if the Knicks take care of business there is a chance that Towns and the Knicks will face Minnesota in the NBA Finals.

New York will defeat Indiana in seven games.

Labels: Indiana Pacers, Jalen Brunson, Karl-Anthony Towns, New York Knicks, Pascal Siakam, Tyrese Haliburton

posted by David Friedman @ 11:30 PM

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Knicks Rout Celtics 119-81 to Reach Eastern Conference Finals for First Time Since 2000

The New York Knicks dismantled the foolish notion that the Boston Celtics might be better without Jayson Tatum, routing the 2024 NBA champions 119-81 in game six to advance to the Eastern Conference Finals for the first time since 2000. During the regular season, the Knicks went a combined 0-8 versus the 64-18 Cleveland Cavaliers and the 61-21 Boston Celtics, but the Knicks took care of the hobbled Celtics and will now face the Indiana Pacers, who blitzed the Cavaliers 4-1 in the Eastern Conference's other second round series.

The Knicks broke the franchise record for largest margin of victory in a playoff game after the Celtics gave their fans a brief flicker of hope by winning game five 127-102 sans Tatum, who suffered a ruptured right Achilles in the waning moments of New York's 121-113 game four victory. The Celtics now own the dubious distinction of suffering the worst loss ever by a defending NBA champion in an elimination game, and the 38 point defeat is tied for the third worst in franchise playoff history.

Four New York players scored between 21 and 23 points: Jalen Brunson (23 points, six assists, six rebounds), OG Anunoby (23 points, nine rebounds), Mikal Bridges (22 points), and Karl-Anthony Towns (21 points, game-high 12 rebounds). New York's fifth starter, Josh Hart, logged a triple double with 10 points, 11 rebounds, and a game-high 11 assists. Brunson led both teams in scoring (26.2 ppg) and assists (7.2 apg) during this series. It is interesting that so much attention is paid to Dallas swapping Luka Doncic for Anthony Davis but little is said about Dallas getting nothing in return for the "Brunson Burner," who had a scorching run during the 2024 playoffs and is quickly establishing himself as one of the most productive playoff performers in Knicks history.

My Eastern Conference Finals Preview will take a deeper look at the Knicks, so this article will focus on the Celtics not only in terms of losing to the Knicks but also regarding the franchise's future in light of Tatum's injury.

It is not clear why Tatum has so many critics, doubters, and detractors, but their voices could be heard loudly after the Celtics won game five without him. It is not surprising for a team--particularly a talented team with a lot of playoff experience--to win one home playoff game without their best player; the challenge is to sustain success without him, and game six spoke volumes: the Knicks outrebounded the Celtics 55-36 while holding the Celtics to 31-86 (.360) field goal shooting, including 12-40 (.300) from three point range. Tatum was the centerpiece of Boston's offensive juggernaut, leading the team in regular season scoring (26.8 ppg) and assists (career-high 6.0 apg) while also pacing the team in rebounding (8.7 rpg); he also led Boston in playoff scoring (28.1 ppg), rebounding (11.5 rpg), and assists (5.4 apg). Tatum was Boston's leading rebounder (11.8 rpg) in this series by more than 5 rpg.

We often hear about Stephen Curry's "gravity," but Tatum exercises a significant gravitational pull as well: during the 2024-25 regular season, the Celtics averaged 116.3 ppg while shooting .462 from the field and .368 from beyond the arc, sinking the most three point field goals (17.8 per game) in NBA history. The decline without Tatum was dramatic; the Celtics' 81 points versus the Knicks is their 2025 playoff low by 10 points, and they only scored less than 81 points once during the 82 game regular season; during the 2023-24 regular season and playoffs, the Celtics scored less than 91 points just once. 

Tatum has been one of the NBA's most productive players for more than half a decade, averaging at least 23.6 ppg in each of the past six seasons while earning six straight All-Star selections, three All-NBA First Team selections (likely four after this year's voting is announced), and three top six MVP finishes (likely four after this year's voting is announced). He has been even better in the playoffs, averaging at least 25.0 ppg for six straight playoff campaigns while winning the 2022 Larry Bird Eastern Conference Finals MVP as the Celtics reached the Eastern Conference Finals four times, and the NBA Finals twice. Tatum has averaged at least 29.0 ppg in five playoff series during his career, and the Celtics won four of those series. He averaged at least 21.5 ppg in 17 straight playoff series dating back to 2020. In terms of signature performances in individual games, Tatum scored a playoff career-high 51 points in a 112-88 game seven win versus Philadelphia in 2023 (outdueling Joel Embiid and James Harden, who have each won a regular season MVP), and he scored 50 points in a 125-119 game three win versus Brooklyn in 2021 as the injury-depleted seventh seeded Celtics defeated a second seeded Nets squad featuring Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving, and James Harden. Tatum has scored at least 40 points in three other playoff games, including 42 in game four versus the Knicks this year before rupturing his right Achilles with 3:06 remaining and the Celtics trailing 113-104. Tatum had 11 points in seven fourth quarter minutes, and the series would have been tied 2-2 if he had stayed healthy and led the Celtics to a late comeback.

Last year, Tatum led the Celtics in playoff scoring (25.0 ppg), rebounding (9.7 rpg), and assists (6.3 apg), but the media gave the Larry Bird Eastern Conference Finals MVP and the Bill Russell NBA Finals MVP to Jaylen Brown despite Brown not being as productive or dominant as Tatum. Tatum has a 15-7 (.682) career playoff series record, including 1-1 in the NBA Finals and 2-3 in the Eastern Conference Finals.

Tatum's career playoff resume ranks near the top among active players; here are the career playoff series records of the other players who made the All-NBA First Team at least once since 2019-20:

Stephen Curry: 24-6 (.800), 6-0 Western Conference Finals, 4-2 NBA Finals

LeBron James: 41-14 (.745), 9-1 Eastern Conference Finals, 1-1 Western Conference Finals, 4-6 NBA Finals

Kawhi Leonard: 19-9 (.679), 2-2 Western Conference Finals, 1-0 Eastern Conference Finals, 2-1 NBA Finals

Kevin Durant: 22-11 (.667), 3-3 Western Conference Finals, 2-2 NBA Finals (he has four NBA Finals appearances because the Warriors won the 2019 WCF without him and then he played 12 minutes in the 2019 NBA Finals before rupturing his Achilles)

Nikola Jokic: 10-6 (.625, pending the outcome of tomorrow's Denver-Oklahoma City game seven), 1-1 Western Conference Finals, 1-0 NBA Finals

Anthony Davis: 7-5 (.583), 1-1 Western Conference Finals, 1-0 NBA Finals 

Devin Booker: 5-4 (.555), 1-0 Western Conference Finals, 0-1 NBA Finals

Giannis Antetokounmpo: 8-8 (.500), 1-1 Eastern Conference Finals, 1-0 NBA Finals

Luka Doncic: 5-5 (.500), 1-1 Western Conference Finals, 0-1 NBA Finals

James Harden: 15-16 (.484), 1-3 Western Conference Finals, 0-1 NBA Finals

Joel Embiid: 5-7 (.417), no appearances in Eastern Conference Finals or NBA Finals

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: 2-4 (.333, pending the outcome of tomorrow's Denver-Oklahoma City game seven), no appearances in Western Conference Finals or NBA Finals

Tatum has also been durable, playing in at least 72 regular season games in each of the six seasons of his career not impacted by COVID-19 (and he played in 66 out of 72 games in 2019-20, and 64 out of 72 games in 2020-21). Tatum has only missed one playoff game out of 121.

Considering Tatum's productivity and durability, it is difficult to overstate the significance of him likely missing most if not all of an entire season during the height of his prime. It is unusual for a reigning NBA champion to lose its best player to injury during the next season's playoffs; perhaps the most prominent such example is Bill Walton's foot injury that short circuited Portland's 1978 playoff run and marked the end of his Portland career, though Walton later won a championship as a reserve for the 1986 Boston Celtics. Magic Johnson suffered a hamstring injury during the 1989 NBA Finals, ending the L.A. Lakers' chance at a "three-peat" after they went 11-0 in the first three rounds of the playoffs, but that injury did not affect the rest of his career, and he led the Lakers back to the NBA Finals in 1991.

Tatum's injury not only sealed the Celtics' fate in an already challenging series versus the Knicks, but it will have implications for next season and beyond. The Celtics had the NBA's third highest payroll ($195,598,491) in 2024-25, and their projected 2025-26 payroll ($223,938,825) is expected to be the league's highest. Brown was paid $49,205,800 in 2024-25, and he will be paid $53,142,264 next season, while Tatum made $34,848,340 this season and will receive $54,126,830 next season even though he will likely miss most of the season. Jrue Holiday, Kristaps Porzingis, and Derrick White will each make at least $28,000,000 next season. Without getting into all of the financial details, the Celtics are a "second apron" team, which means that they not only have a hefty luxury tax bill but they also face severe restrictions regarding permissible trades and free agent signings.

Thus, the Celtics face some tough and potentially very costly options. Keeping the core roster players will be expensive, is unlikely to yield a championship next season sans Tatum, and ties the franchise's hands in terms of adding depth. The Celtics could reduce their payroll and obtain some financial flexibility by trading Holiday and/or Porzingis. Bobby Marks floated the idea of the Celtics trading Brown to get out from under his massive contract, but it is difficult to imagine the Celtics breaking up the Tatum-Brown duo that has been so successful unless it becomes clear that Tatum will not return to form (in which case the Celtics could decide to do a full overhaul). 

The Celtics' situation highlight how fragile success is; if Tatum had stayed healthy and engineered a 10-0 run in the last three minutes of game four, the Celtics would have been two wins away from the Eastern Conference Finals--but instead they are out of the playoffs and facing a very uncertain future.

Labels: Boston Celtics, Jalen Brunson, Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, Karl-Anthony Towns, New York Knicks

posted by David Friedman @ 8:40 PM

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Nuggets Silence Thunder to Force a Game Seven on Sunday in Oklahoma City

The Denver Nuggets have pushed the league-leading 68-14 Oklahoma City Thunder to the brink, winning game six 119-107 to extend the series to a seventh game in Oklahoma City on Sunday. The Thunder are nine wins away from capturing the 2025 NBA title and being recognized as one of the greatest single season teams of all-time--and they are one loss away from forever disqualifying themselves from being mentioned in that discussion. It will be interesting to see how the young Thunder respond to the pressure.

Nikola Jokic led the Nuggets in scoring (29 points on 9-14 field goal shooting), rebounding (14), and assists (eight), but he received significant help from Jamal Murray (25 points, eight rebounds, seven assists) and Christian Braun (23 points, 11 rebounds, five assists). Julian Strawther scored 15 points in just under 20 minutes off of the bench, exceeding his scoring output (14 points) from the previous games in the series combined. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander scored a game-high 32 points on 11-16 field goal shooting while dishing for six assists, and Chet Holmgren contributed 19 points plus a team-high 11 rebounds, but the other Thunder players combined to score just 56 points on 24-60 (.400) field goal shooting. 

The Nuggets outrebounded the Thunder 52-40, and the Nuggets overpowered the Thunder physically for large stretches of the game. Denver jumped out to a 30-20 lead late in the first quarter, but the Thunder went on a 38-16 run to go up 58-46 at the 2:05 mark of the second quarter. The Nuggets tied the score at 58 before Lu Dort's three pointer just before the buzzer put the Thunder up 61-58 at halftime. The Nuggets outscored the Thunder 32-21 in the third quarter while winning the points in the paint battle 16-12 and outrebounding the Thunder 17-10. Both teams shot worse than .420 from the field in the fourth quarter, but the Nuggets outrebounded the Thunder 16-6, and exploited those extra possessions to outscore the Thunder 29-25. Jokic scored 11 fourth quarter points.

Jokic has been the best player in the series so far, leading both teams with 29.8 ppg and 14.7 rpg. Jokic is averaging 5.7 apg--well below his regular season average of 10.2 apg--but part of his decline in that statistical category is due to his teammates shooting just .393 from the field. Jokic dominated during Denver's game one win (42 points on 15-29 field goal shooting, 22 rebounds, six assists), and he had 44 points on 17-29 field goal shooting in Denver's game five loss, but in games two-four he averaged 21.3 ppg on 21-63 (.333) field goal shooting; it would not be fair to say that the Thunder shut him down, but the Thunder made him much less efficient and somewhat less productive than usual.  

Gilgeous-Alexander has had an excellent series, averaging 28.8 ppg, 7.0 rpg, and 7.0 apg. Except for his 18 point outing in Oklahoma City's game three loss, he has scored between 25 and 34 points in every game, topping 30 points four times. He is a worthy MVP candidate--and is generally expected to be the winner after finishing second to Jokic last year--but there is no doubt that Jokic is both more productive statistically and more impactful on opposing defenses: Jokic is an elite scorer, rebounder, and passer who punishes opponents physically while also taxing them mentally because he is thinking the game at such a high level. Gilgeous-Alexander is an exceptional player, but a 6-6 guard just cannot affect the game the same way that a versatile big man can.

What should we expect to see in game seven? The Nuggets won game one in Oklahoma City, got blown out in game two, captured game three to maintain homecourt advantage, and then lost two straight games to fall behind 3-2 before winning game six at home to avoid elimination. "Experts" speak about "momentum," but the reality is that (1) each game in a playoff series is a separate entity and (2) over the course of a series what matters most is the exploitation of matchup advantages. I picked Oklahoma City to win this series in six games, based primarily on the notion that the Thunder would use their suffocating defense to wear down the Nuggets, which has not happened so far: the series statistics through six games are skewed a bit by the Thunder's 149-106 game two win, but in the other five games the Nuggets have outscored the Thunder 545-534. It is possible that in game seven Jokic and Gilgeous-Alexander will cancel each other out, and the series will be decided by the Thunder's superior depth overwhelming the Nuggets; that is the most likely outcome. 

However, there are two Denver advantages worth noting: (1) Jokic is capable of skewing everything by putting up a monster stat line (40-plus points, 20-plus rebounds, 15-plus assists) that Gilgeous-Alexander cannot match (his playoff career highs--not in the same game--are 38 points, 13 rebounds, and nine assists), and (2) the Nuggets have several veterans from their 2023 championship team (Jamal Murray, Aaron Gordon, Michael Porter Jr.) who have come through in big playoff games and will not be intimidated by playing on the road in game seven, while the Thunder have only one player who has won an NBA title (Alex Caruso with the 2020 Lakers).

Labels: Denver Nuggets, Nikola Jokic, Oklahoma City Thunder, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

posted by David Friedman @ 2:59 PM

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Pacers Reach Eastern Conference Finals for Second Consecutive Year as Cavaliers' Dream Season Ends in a Nightmare

The Indiana Pacers started the season 6-9 while the Cleveland Cavaliers started the season 15-0, but the numbers that matter the most for these teams are 4-1: that is the final tally of their second round series after Indiana won game five in Cleveland, 114-105. Tyrese Haliburton led the Pacers in scoring (31 points) and assists (eight). Pascal Siakam added 21 points, eight rebounds, and five assists as each Indiana starter scored at least 10 points. Donovan Mitchell scored a game-high 35 points, but he shot just 8-25 from the field and only had one assist. Evan Mobley contributed 24 points and 11 rebounds. 

The Cavaliers finished first in the Eastern Conference with a 64-18 record and they went 34-7 at home--but they lost all three home games to the Pacers in this series, culminating in game five when they squandered a 19 point second quarter lead. The Pacers seized homecourt advantage in this series by winning game one in Cleveland 121-112, and then the Pacers took a commanding 2-0 lead by taking game two 120-119; the Cavaliers were missing three key players due to injury--Defensive Player of the Year/All-Star Evan Mobley, All-Star Darius Garland, and De'Andre Hunter--but that is no excuse for enabling the Pacers to outscore them 8-0 in the final 57.6 seconds. The Cavaliers avoided being swept by routing the Pacers 126-104 in Indiana in game three, but the Pacers eliminated any realistic chance for a Cleveland comeback by stomping the Cavaliers 129-109 in game four. The Pacers led 80-39 at halftime of game four while facing Cleveland's full roster, and the Pacers destroyed the Cavaliers in the paint (58-32) for the entire game, making a mockery of Cleveland's double big lineup featuring Mobley and Jarrett Allen. At least one commentator compared Mobley to Tim Duncan this season, and that madness needs to stop. Mobley is a talented and still improving player, but Duncan entered the NBA as a polished, MVP-level player who would have destroyed this Indiana team at both ends of the court. 

Six Indiana players averaged between 11.4 ppg and 17.8 ppg in this series, with Siakam (17.8 ppg) and Haliburton (17.4 ppg) leading that balanced attack. Andrew Nembhard (7.2 apg) edged Haliburton (7.0 apg) for team-high honors in assists. Myles Turner had a solid series (16.2 ppg, team-high 7.2 rpg, team-high 2.8 bpg). The Pacers are not known as a physical team or a defensive-minded team, but they spent most of this series pushing the Cavaliers around at both ends of the court. After the game four rout, Coach of the Year Kenny Atkinson lamented that his Cavaliers did not play with enough force, but nothing much changed in game five. 

Donovan Mitchell's playoff career is a mixed bag, and this abbreviated playoff run as the best player on the East's top seeded team embodies those contradictions. Mitchell is a dynamic scorer who owns the seventh highest scoring average (28.3 ppg) in ABA/NBA playoff history, and he has scored at least 30 points in eight straight series openers, breaking a record held by Michael Jordan, who had two separate streaks of seven such games. In game one of this series, Mitchell scored 33 points, but he shot just 13-30 from the field and he only had six fourth quarter points. Mitchell scored 48 points on 15-30 field goal shooting in game two, but he shot 2-6 from the field with three turnovers in the fourth quarter as the Cavaliers blundered away the game down the stretch. Mitchell scored 43 points on 14-29 field goal shooting in Cleveland's only win, but then he had just 12 points on 3-11 field goal shooting in the first half of game four before coming up lame just prior to the second half with an ankle injury that caused him to miss the rest of the blowout loss. That all adds up to 34.2 ppg on .424 field goal shooting. Is Mitchell an MVP-caliber player who needs more help or just tougher players around him? Or is there something about the way Mitchell plays that is not conducive to deep playoff runs? Mitchell has never advanced past the second round.

As I noted in my series preview in which I picked Cleveland to beat Indiana in six games, the Cavaliers led the NBA in scoring (121.9 ppg) while ranking second in field goal percentage (.491), third in defensive field goal percentage (.454), sixth in rebounding (45.4 rpg), and 12th in points allowed. Their regular season point differential (9.5) is on par with the point differentials of all-time great championship teams such as the 1986 Boston Celtics, the 1991 Chicago Bulls, and the 1997 Chicago Bulls. I also emphasized that all of those numbers mean nothing unless/until the Cavaliers validate those statistics with a deep playoff run. The Cavaliers failed miserably versus the Pacers, and their failure cannot be attributed just to injuries; the Pacers proved to be tougher, and they played smarter in key moments. 

This will be a long offseason for the Cavaliers.

Meanwhile, after their sluggish start to the season the Pacers have reached the Eastern Conference Finals for the second straight season, and they are suddenly in excellent position to return to the NBA Finals for the first time since 2000; the franchise known as the Boston Celtics of the ABA after capturing three ABA titles (1970, 1972-73) has not yet won an NBA title. Speaking of the Celtics, the Pacers await the winner of the Boston-New York series. Defending NBA champion Boston is without the services of Jayson Tatum, who ruptured his right Achilles in a game four loss that gave New York a commanding 3-1 series lead; after eliminating the best regular season team in the Eastern Conference, the Pacers may have a path to the NBA Finals that does not involve facing the Eastern Conference's other 60-plus win team. 

Labels: Cleveland Cavaliers, Donovan Mitchell, Evan Mobley, Indiana Pacers, Myles Turner, Pascal Siakam, Tyrese Haliburton

posted by David Friedman @ 8:44 PM

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