20 Second Timeout

Both Number One Seeds Are on the Brink of Elimination

The best thing about sports is the unscripted drama: you may think that you know what should happen or what will happen, but each player and team has an opportunity to flip that script and create a different outcome. We just saw two examples of this during Wednesday's game fives.

In the first, Eastern Conference number one seed Philadelphia scored 38 first quarter points, built a 26 point second half lead, and then collapsed down the stretch to lose at home 109-106 to the upstart Atlanta Hawks. Joel Embiid finished with 37 points and 13 rebounds, but for the second game in a row he was silent down the stretch as the 76ers crumbled. Atlanta now leads the series 3-2 and can advance to the Eastern Conference Finals with a home win on Friday night.

Then, Western Conference number one seed Utah nailed a franchise playoff record 10 first quarter three pointers and took a 65-60 halftime lead versus the L.A. Clippers, who were without the services of injured two-time Finals MVP Kawhi Leonard. Paul George authored perhaps the best performance of his playoff career, tallying 37 points and 16 rebounds as the Clippers pulled off the improbable upset. If the Jazz have a weakness, it is relying too much on the three point shot. As I have explained many times about various players and teams, the three pointer is a high variance shot: if you shoot 5-20 from three point range in one game and 10-20 from three point range in the next game that works out to a very good overall percentage, but you will almost certainly lose the first game and you may not win the second game. A championship team must be able to fall back on something other than just making a lot of three pointers, such as playing great defense and/or the ability to consistently score in the paint. Against the Clippers in game five, the Jazz shot 20-54 from three point range--a very good long distance shooting percentage of .370 that is just a tick below their .389 regular season three point shooting percentage that ranked fifth in the league--but their blazing 17-30 first half three point shooting fizzled to 3-24 second half three point shooting, and they were not able to score enough from other areas or get enough stops to defeat a lower seeded team missing their best player. L.A. is up 3-2, and the Clippers can reach the Western Conference Finals with a home win on Friday night.

I picked both number one seeds to win in this round, and I picked Utah to make it to the NBA Finals. Both of Wednesday's results surprised me, but Utah's loss is more surprising even though the 76ers squandered a much larger lead. The Jazz are a complete team at both ends of the court, and they are healthy with the exception of Mike Conley, who is a valuable player but should not be an indispensable player--particularly when the Clippers were missing Leonard, who has arguably been the best and most consistent player in the 2021 playoffs (30.4 ppg on .573 field goal shooting, a combination of postseason productivity and accuracy that one would expect from a dominant center like Shaquille O'Neal or Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, not a wing player).

The reason that the 76ers' collapse does not surprise me is that this team was built on a faulty premise, and acquired its two best players--Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons--through fraudulent means. Contrary to the title of a recent book, the 76ers have not tanked to the top (that book belongs in the fiction section, not nonfiction); they intentionally lost for several seasons in a row to acquire a duo that has yet to lead the team past the second round of the playoffs. There is no question that Embiid is a gifted player, but he has spent most of his career struggling to stay in shape and stay healthy (there is perhaps a connection between those two issues). Embiid can fill up a box score, but can he dominate a playoff series against a good team such that his team wins the series? Embiid's overall numbers versus Atlanta look great, but you need a microscope to find the biggest man on the court when the game enters crunch time. 

The statistical evidence proves that tanking does not work but the raw numbers do not explain why it does not work. A major reason why tanking does not work is that tanking inevitably involves creating and accepting as normative a losing culture, and that mindset is difficult to break; think about the biblical story of the Hebrew slaves wandering around in the desert for 40 years until the entire generation that had a slave mentality died off: once you have developed a slave mentality or a losing mentality, it is almost impossible to change without just changing the personnel. Embiid and Simmons were both part of the 76ers' infamous "Process." This is different than Isiah Thomas' Detroit Pistons learning to win; the Pistons were always trying to win and they were building the right mindset and habits, but they just needed to add more talent. In contrast, the 76ers were intentionally putting teams on the court that they knew had no chance to win. Look at the 76ers now: they have All-Star/All-NBA caliber talent at multiple positions, yet when its winning time they fold, and that has been a problem for years. Embiid and Simmons spent the early portion of their careers playing in (or watching, when they were injured) games in which each possession was not valued and winning was not the top priority, so when they are thrust into playoff situations when each possession matters a lot and winning is the only priority they are not prepared to succeed.

So why did I pick the 76ers to win this series? I thought that their talent advantage would be enough in this matchup to overcome their mindset deficiencies--and it still may be enough, but I would not give the 76ers much of a chance to beat Brooklyn or Milwaukee in the Eastern Conference Finals; Kevin Durant is such a playoff killer he might be able to take four retired Nets and knock off the weak-minded 76ers!

These 76ers in no way resemble my favorite NBA team of all-time, the 1983 76ers of "The Doctor, Big Mo, Little Mo, Andrew Toney, Iavaroni--no baloney, Sixers all the way." Julius "Dr. J" Erving led the 76ers to three NBA Finals appearances (1977, 1980, 1982) in his first six years with the franchise, but in that era you had to have an All-Star--if not Hall of Fame--center to win a title. Erving did not complain or whine or try to force his way out; he did the best he could every year with the team that he had, and after the 76ers acquired Moses Malone via trade Erving ceded his "office" on the left block for the good of the team as Philadelphia had one of the most dominant seasons ever: 65-17 regular season, record-setting 12-1 playoff run culminating in a 4-0 sweep of the L.A. Lakers, the team of the decade (winners of five NBA titles in the 1980s). Erving's 76ers built a winning culture--they had the best regular season record in the NBA from 1976-83--and after they added the final piece they became perhaps the greatest single season NBA team of all-time. 

These 76ers tried to rig the system, and the same thing is true in any sport: you mess with the game, and the game will mess with you.

All of that being said, it is important to remember that neither series is over. The underdogs have the advantage, but if they fail to win at home then the favorites will have the opportunity to close out the series at home. There are still more pages to be written in both unscripted dramas, and that is the best thing about sports.

Labels: Atlanta Hawks, L.A. Clippers, Philadelphia 76ers, Utah Jazz

posted by David Friedman @ 3:36 AM

0 comments