Portland Loses in First Round for Fourth Time in Five Years
Damian Lillard averaged 34.3 ppg with .463/.449/.940 shooting splits during the first round of the playoffs, but his Portland Trail Blazers still lost 4-2 to the Denver Nuggets. Lillard set the NBA single series record with 35 three pointers made, including a playoff single game record 12 three pointers in his scintillating 55 point performance in Portland's 147-140 double overtime loss in game five.
Despite all of the attention that is paid to numbers/"analytics" in recent years, there is still a significant lack of understanding and discernment regarding which numbers are meaningful and how to interpret those numbers. To cite two examples, a lot of attention is paid to overall shooting efficiency and last second shots. Shooting efficiency matters, but it must be placed in context by understanding a player's role and skill set. A player who is very efficient on a small number of field goal attempts is not a franchise player, but a player whose numbers may not look efficient may still be a franchise player if he has the necessary skill set and mentality to control a game down the stretch because controlling a game down the stretch matters more than hitting last second shots; to some extent, last second shots are random events. Kobe Bryant's game-winning shot versus the Phoenix Suns during game four of the 2006 NBA playoffs is an exciting and oft-replayed highlight, but Bryant's ability to control a game down the stretch--which he displayed in many games in the NBA Finals and Conference Finals en route to winning five NBA titles--is more impressive and meaningful. Yes, you need the right skill set and mentality to make a buzzer beater, but it is easier to hit one shot than it is to take over a game for an extended period of time.
Lillard's "logo shots" are fun to watch, and he deserves credit for honing his craft to the extent that he is willing and able to make those shots--but Lillard is not consistently able to take over playoff games down the stretch for extended periods of time. Yes, if the game is close in the final seconds he can hit a "logo shot" to save his team, but late in a playoff series he is more likely to wear down than he is to take over. Lillard had a very productive series versus Denver, but--as often happens with smaller players--he wore down and he did not have much left in the tank late in game six with the outcome still up for grabs: he shot 1-9 from the field in the second half, including 1-5 in the fourth quarter.
I respect Lillard's work ethic, his skill set, and his mentality of trying to win in Portland as opposed to going somewhere else to form a "super team." It is not disrespectful to Lillard to state the truth: an undersized player is not going to lead a team to an NBA title, especially when that undersized player relies on long jumpers for a team that is subpar defensively and cannot survive high variance shooting. Even if Lillard can make 40% of his "logo shots"--and he clearly cannot do that late in a series when he is worn down--that would still mean that 60% of the possessions during which he shoots those shots are empty possessions (not including a few offensive rebounds or defensive fouls). A poor defensive team cannot survive that many empty possessions.
What about Stephen Curry? Do his three championship rings refute the contentions made in the above paragraph? No, because Curry's "logo shots" are not the main reason that his teams won championships; he is a great player, and those shots are great highlights, but each Golden State championship team was very good collectively on defense and also featured several exceptional individual defensive players, including but not limited to Draymond Green, Andre Iguodala, and Klay Thompson. Without that defensive foundation, the Warriors would not have won a single championship, no matter how many "logo shots" Curry made. It is worth noting that Curry has yet to win a Finals MVP, and it is also worth noting that the Warriors did not become a multiple-championship winning team until they acquired Kevin Durant, who is nearly a foot taller than Curry and Lillard. Durant not only can take over games and playoff series down the stretch, but he is also an above average defensive player.
This is Portland's fourth first round exit in the past five seasons, sandwiched around losing 4-0 to the Golden State Warriors in the 2019 Western Conference Finals. Lillard is very realistic about where Portland should be ranked among the best NBA teams: "I mean, we didn't win a championship, so obviously where we are now isn't good enough. I don't know what a shakeup looks like or what changes will be made or could be made, but obviously as is it wasn't good enough. We came up short against a team without their starting point guard and shooting guard (Jamal Murray and Will Barton)...Obviously, where we are isn't good enough to win a championship if it's not good enough to get out of a first-round series with two of their best three or four players not on the floor."
Lillard is not fooled by Portland's one Western Conference Finals appearance. He knows that the Trail Blazers as presently constituted are not a legit championship contender. In my evaluation of Daryl Morey's tenure in Houston, I noted, "In the past 13 years, 10 Eastern Conference teams and 10 Western Conference teams made at least one Conference Finals appearance and six teams in each conference made at least two Conference Finals appearances." Stating that Portland's one Western Conference Finals appearance during the Lillard era is fluky and not particularly significant is not, as some might say, "hate": the statistical evidence demonstrates that making it to the Conference Finals once is not exceptional in a league designed to maximize parity, and that point is reinforced by the reality that at no other time during the Lillard era have the Trail Blazers come close to duplicating that feat. Something not particularly unusual that only happened once in the midst of years of mediocrity is, by definition, fluky and not particularly significant.
Those historical and statistical facts take nothing away from Lillard's individual statistics, skill set, and work ethic. He deserves much respect for everything that he has accomplished. That being said, in order for Lillard to win a championship in Portland the Trail Blazers must add a dominant wing player or post player, and the team must cultivate a defensive mindset.
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Carmelo Anthony's legacy is much-discussed but poorly understood. Based on his college career and his prolific NBA statistics he is a lock to be inducted in the Naismith Memorial Basketball Hall of Fame. However, he is at least one level below the greatest players of his time, guys like Kobe Bryant, Kevin Durant, Tim Duncan, LeBron James, and Shaquille O'Neal. Anthony does not quite make it to the next level, either, because that group includes (to list just a few, in no particular order) Dwyane Wade, Stephen Curry, Kawhi Leonard, and Russell Westbrook. Just as it is not "hate" or disrespect to accurately rank Lillard, it is not "hate" or "disrespect" to accurately rank Anthony.
After Portland beat Denver 123-109 in the first game of the series, I wrote the following about Carmelo Anthony:
Anthony's emergence as a somewhat effective sixth man (13.4 ppg on .421 field goal shooting while starting just three of 69 games during the regular season) has inspired many commentators to wax poetic about what a supposed injustice it was that Anthony was out of the league for over a year. Let's set the record straight: Anthony will be inducted in the Basketball Hall of Fame primarily because of his scoring (and also for leading Syracuse to the 2003 NCAA title), but he is no longer capable of consistently being a big-time scorer, and the other areas of the game that were never strong suits have not improved. Therefore, he is best suited to coming off of the bench--and when that idea was first proposed to him, he laughed out loud, much like Lamar Odom said that Phil Jackson "must have bumped his head" when Jackson determined that Odom should be the Lakers' sixth man. Unlike Anthony, though, Odom soon embraced his new role. When Anthony refused to accept his role and/or be effective/comfortable in that role, he ended up out of the league; when Anthony decided to accept that role and be reasonably productive (albeit not very efficient) in that role, Portland signed him.
In the last four games that Anthony played in before the playoffs (he was inactive for two games during this run), he scored three points (1-3 field goal shooting), 18 points (7-13 field goal shooting), five points (1-7 field goal shooting), and 10 points (3-10 field goal shooting). That works out to 9.0 ppg on .364 field goal shooting--and before anyone calls this "cherry picking," those numbers are not that much worse than his season averages, and if you scan through his 2020-21 game log you see 25 games in which he shot less than .400 from the field--that is more than one out of three of his total games played. Anthony shot .300 or less from the field in 18 games. Maybe if he was still a primary offensive threat who was drawing double teams to open up the floor we might be able to cut him some slack for all of that bricklaying, but he is the team's fifth leading scorer--and he is not making much of a contribution in rebounding (11th on the team in rebounds per minute), assists (eighth on the team in assists per minute) or defense.
Do the commentators who say things like "Carmelo Anthony is a walking bucket" realize how uninformed they sound every time they open their mouths? Carmelo Anthony is an aging former All-Star who is still capable of scoring double figures, albeit not very efficiently.
There is no doubt that Anthony enjoyed scoring 18 points versus his former team in game one. How many 18 point games will he have in this series? He matched or exceeded that total in 19 out of 69 games this season, so if this series goes seven games he might have one more 18 point game, but there is a decent chance that this turns out to be his highest scoring and best shooting game in the series.
That is not "hate"; that is just looking at his production, and projecting what is most likely to happen. If Anthony can exceed his established production rate, good for him.
That analysis aged very well: Anthony did not reach the 18 point mark again in the series. Anthony posted solid numbers in Portland's game six loss (14 points on 5-9 field goal shooting, five rebounds, four assists), but his game-worst -17 plus/minus number provides at least a glimpse at his impact on team success.
Anthony's individual efficiency during game six was unusual. During the series, he averaged 12.3 ppg, 3.2 rpg, and 1.5 apg while shooting .417 from the field. He ranked fifth on the team in scoring. Denver outscored Portland by 1.3 ppg overall, but Denver outscored Portland by 8 ppg when Anthony was on the court. Whether you prefer to evaluate players by the eye test, by skill set analysis, by individual box score numbers, or by plus/minus, it is difficult to find an objective reason to assert that Anthony had a positive impact for Portland during the playoffs.
Many commentators have expressed confusion--if not outrage--that Anthony was out of the NBA for over a year. There is nothing confusing or outrageous about what happened. At this stage of his career, Anthony is an inefficient, one dimensional player who does not draw double teams and does not provide much value other than scoring. He cannot be a starter or top scoring option on any team hoping to make a deep playoff run--but, Anthony initially scoffed at the notion that he should now be a bench player with a reduced role. In contrast, Vince Carter accepted such a role reduction gracefully, and he left the NBA on his terms after playing a record 22 seasons.
Anthony's absence from the NBA and his subsequent return are easily understood by anyone who objectively examines his declining skills, the role best suited to those skills, and his initial reluctance to accept that role.
Many media members who have had direct interactions with Anthony say positive things about him. That may explain why so many media members spoke up on Anthony's behalf when he was not in the league, and why they continue to speak up on his behalf now--but personal sentiment (whether positive or negative) should not play a role in player evaluation.
Labels: Carmelo Anthony, Damian Lillard, Kobe Bryant, Portland Trail Blazers
posted by David Friedman @ 5:45 PM
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