Philadelphia Versus Atlanta Preview
Eastern Conference Second Round
#1 Philadelphia (49-23) vs. #5 Atlanta (41-31)
Season series: Philadelphia, 2-1
Atlanta can win if…Trae Young averages at least 30 ppg, 10 apg, and .450 field goal shooting--in other words, if Young matches or exceeds his first round production. Also, it is vital that the Hawks' big men by committee combine to limit Joel Embiid to less than 25 ppg without having to rely on double teams that create driving lanes and/or open shots for Embiid's teammates (or, alternatively, Embiid's knee injury keeps him out of the lineup or reduces his productivity).
Philadelphia will win because…the 76ers are bigger, more talented, and have more depth. When healthy and motivated, Joel Embiid is a matchup nightmare. He averaged 24.0 ppg on .635 field goal shooting in four games versus the Washington Wizards in the first round (he missed one game due to a knee injury), but even more significant that Embiid's individual numbers are the 76ers' team numbers when he is on the court compared to when he is out of the game: the 76ers look like a championship contender when Embiid plays, but they just look like a good, solid team--at best--when he does not play. Ben Simmons, who nearly averaged a triple double in the first round (14.8 ppg, 10.2 rpg, 9.2 apg), must remain productive at both ends of the court. Tobias Harris led the 76ers in scoring in the first round (25.0 ppg) while also averaging 10.0 rpg; he is an All-Star caliber player whose size, mobility, and shooting touch create matchup problems.
Other things to consider: The Hawks have looked like a different team since Nate McMillan took over as coach from Lloyd Pierce. Atlanta started the season 14-20 under Pierce, but went 27-11 the rest of the way with McMillan at the helm. I was not sure to what extent that transformation would extend to the postseason, but the Hawks smothered the Knicks' Julius Randle (holding him to 18.0 ppg on .298 field goal shooting in a 4-1 first round victory). I underestimated the Hawks prior to the first round, and it is possible that I am still underestimating them, but even if one accepts the notion that the "new" Hawks are comparable to the 76ers the series should still tilt in Philadelphia's favor due to having the best individual player (Embiid) plus having home court advantage.
The main challenge in predicting the outcome of any series involving the 76ers is gauging Embiid's health, conditioning, and level of mental engagement.
For this round, I am making positive assumptions about Embiid that, if incorrect, will change the result, but I am picking Philadelphia to win in five games.
Labels: Atlanta Hawks, Ben Simmons, Joel Embiid, Philadelphia 76ers, Tobias Harris, Trae Young
posted by David Friedman @ 7:59 PM
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