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Dwight Howard, Carmelo Anthony, and 2008 "Redeem Team" Headline Nine Member 2025 Naismith Memorial Basketball Hall of Fame Class

The Naismith Memorial Basketball Hall of Fame Class of 2025 includes nine inductees (eight individuals plus one team), with six inductees having NBA ties: Carmelo Anthony, Dwight Howard, Danny Crawford, Mickey Arison, the 2008 Team USA squad (the "Redeem Team" that beat Spain in the Olympic gold medal game), and Billy Donovan (an NBA head coach for 10 seasons who is being inducted based on his accomplishments as a college coach, capped off by leading Florida to NCAA titles in 2006 and 2007). The other three inductees are women's players Sue Bird, Sylvia Fowles, and Maya Moore.

Howard may be one of the most underrated players of the past 25 years; it is baffling that he was not included on the NBA's 75th Anniversary Team. Howard earned five straight All-NBA First Team selections (2008-2012), won five rebounding titles (2008-10, 2012-13), and captured three Defensive Player of the Year awards (2009-11). The only centers with more than five All-NBA First Team selections are Kareem Abdul-Jabbar (10), Shaquille O'Neal (eight), Wilt Chamberlain (seven), Hakeem Olajuwon (six), and George Mikan (six). The only players with more rebounding titles than Howard are Wilt Chamberlain (11), Dennis Rodman (seven), and Moses Malone (six). Only Dikembe Mutombo, Ben Wallace, and Rudy Gobert won more Defensive Player of the Year awards (four each) than Howard. Howard made the All-NBA Team for eight straight seasons and then he averaged at least 13.5 ppg and at least 10.5 rpg in each of the next four seasons after that run. As a 34 year old reserve, he averaged 7.5 ppg and 7.3 rpg while anchoring the paint for the 2020 L.A. Lakers as they won the "bubble title."

Howard said that when he was 10 he told his father that he would be the number one pick in the NBA Draft, and his father "believed in me as much as I did, but you wanted me to commit to it. I wrote down my goals and I placed them above my bed, along with my cross. And you helped me work to achieve those goals, day after day. Look how life works. Pops, Mom, your son is in the Hall of Fame." Howard thanked Robert Parish, one of his four Hall of Fame presenters. Parish was his grandmother's favorite player, and Howard recalled that during his rookie season Parish helped him and was "one of my biggest inspirations."  

Next, Howard recognized several Hall of Famers who inspired him but were not able to attend the ceremony. Bill Russell, who passed away in 2022, wrote the book Russell Rules, which Howard said "allowed me to understand the game at a whole different level. That book taught me about leadership and the importance of staying committed to my goals." Howard noted that Dikembe Mutombo, who passed away in 2024, "motivated me to challenge and battle for every shot." Howard praised Kareem Abdul-Jabbar as "My GOAT," and described him as the only player in NBA history who had "two Hall of Fame careers"--first as Lew Alcindor, and then as Kareem Abdul-Jabbar. Howard said that Dennis Rodman is one of his favorite players and "the greatest rebounder ever." 

Howard then turned his attention to his other three Hall of Fame presenters, thanking Dominique Wilkins "for inspiring me," and describing Patrick Ewing as not only a coach but also a mentor. Shaquille O'Neal and Howard have engaged in some verbal sparring over the years, and Howard described those disputes as "sibling rivalries." Howard said that he and O'Neal are now "brothers in this fraternity of basketball."

Howard said that The Little Engine That Could "was my favorite book and my greatest inspiration. Like that little engine that could, I used to repeat to myself 'I think I can.' Eventually, it became, 'I know I can.'"

Howard and then-Orlando Coach Stan Van Gundy did not always see eye to eye when they worked together, but Howard stated that he would not have become a Hall of Famer without Van Gundy pushing him: "There is no Dwight Howard without Stan Van Gundy. You taught me what it means to stay ready."

After acknowledging his teammates from the 2008 Olympics and the 2020 Lakers, and his wife and children, Howard concluded, "You only die once but you live every day." 

Mickey Arison, inducted as a Contributor, bought controlling interest in the Miami Heat in 1995, and under his leadership the team became one of the NBA's model franchises with three NBA titles (2006, 2012, 2013) and seven Eastern Conference titles (2006, 2011-14, 2020, 2023). One of Arison's key moves was hiring Pat Riley to run the basketball operations (Riley also coached the 2006 championship team). Arison's presenters were Pat Riley, Dwyane Wade, and Alonzo Mourning. Arison called Hall of Fame selection "the highest honor" in the sport, but noted that it was not an honor that he had ever sought. He said that during the time that he has owned the Heat, his plan has been simple: "Do right by south Florida, and build a winner."

The best NBA referees do their jobs without calling attention to themselves. For 32 years, Danny Crawford was at the pinnacle of NBA officiating. He was selected to work in the NBA Finals--the top honor for an NBA official--in each of his final 23 seasons, and in 30 seasons overall. Some referees are hot-tempered in general, and other referees seem to hold grudges against certain teams or players, but when Crawford officiated a game you had confidence that he would keep matters under control without becoming the center of attention and without letting any personal feelings get in the way of objective officiating. 

Crawford delivered a brief, prerecorded speech. He called induction "an incredible honor," and he thanked David Stern and Adam Silver for their leadership of the NBA and for providing him the opportunity to be an NBA referee. He gave a special thank you to "fellow Hall of Famer Darell Garretson, who taught me how to referee at the highest level." Crawford appeared on stage, presented by Isiah Thomas and Tim Hardaway.

It is easy to forget how far USA Basketball had fallen after the Dream Team's triumphant 1992 romp to Olympic gold in Barcelona. Team USA finished sixth in the 2002 FIBA World Championship, an embarrassing performance by the country where basketball was invented. Team USA struggled to get a bronze medal in the 2004 Olympics. Team USA's bronze medal performance in the 2006 FIBA World Championship meant that Team USA had to earn qualification into the 2008 Olympics. In The Real Story Behind Team USA's Losses in Previous FIBA Events, I explained that Team USA needed to improve defensively and to create better team chemistry. The addition of Kobe Bryant and Jason Kidd to the roster in 2007 solved both problems, and Team USA dominated the 2007 FIBA Americas Cup--Team USA's first gold medal in any FIBA event since 2003--before Team USA won Olympic gold in 2008. The 2008 gold medal-winning squad is known as "The Redeem Team," and is the 14th team to be inducted in the Naismith Memorial Basketball Hall of Fame. Both Dwight Howard and Carmelo Anthony played for that team.

Jerry Colangelo, the USA Basketball managing director who assembled the "Redeem Team," called that time the highlight of his basketball career. Colangelo recalled that he had just two conditions when David Stern asked him to run USA Basketball: he requested total control of the selection of coaches/players, and an unlimited budget. Colangelo said that Stern did not like the idea of an unlimited budget, but Stern went along with it after Colangelo vowed that he would raise any needed funds by finding sponsors. Colangelo also provided a great tribute to George Raveling, who recently passed away. Colangelo said that Raveling always wanted to be called "coach," that he spoke with Raveling multiple times per week, and that Raveling was a mentor to many people in the basketball world.

LeBron James said that Kobe Bryant was the 2008 team's "missing link that we needed in order to regain the dominance with Team USA" because Bryant "brought a sense of seriousness to the team. He made us lock in. We knew, once he joined, that he was going to be committed, we couldn't be doing nothing half-assed. Kobe wasn't going for that, so it made myself, CP, Dwade, Melo, we locked in even more because we wanted to show him that we could get to that level as well." James' statement is a tacit--or not even that tacit--admission that prior to Bryant joining Team USA the squad was not fully locked in and committed to doing what needed to be done to win at the highest level. Remember that at that time, Dwayne Wade was the only player from that younger generation who had won an NBA title (Bryant already had won three). Bryant's pivotal role on the "Redeem Team" should never be minimized or forgotten. 

Team captain Jason Kidd, who spoke with characteristic modesty about his role, provided essential leadership and mentoring not just for young point guards Chris Paul and Deron Williams but for the entire squad.

Coach Mike Krzyzewski called winning the 2008 Olympics "the best moment of my coaching career."

The next inductee, Billy Donovan, is perhaps best known to younger fans as an NBA head coach but he was honored primarily for his outstanding 21 year college coaching career during which his teams made 14 NCAA Tournament appearances and four Final Fours while claiming back to back NCAA titles (2006-07). He is one of only four men to win an NCAA title as a coach and appear in the Final Four as a player. Donovan was presented by Rick Pitino and Maurice Cheeks. Donovan said, "Faith and belief have been incredibly powerful in my life, and it's not been the faith and belief in myself but it's been the faith and belief that others have had in me when there was really no sign or evidence to have faith." Donovan credited Pitino's "belief, faith and confidence in me" for helping him become the player and coach that he became. He said that he and Cheeks have worked together for nine years and that Cheeks' knowledge as an NBA All-Star, NBA champion, and Hall of Fame player have been invaluable. Donovan spoke of his steep learning curve as a young NBA coach fresh from the college ranks, and mentioned how much Cheeks helped ease that transition.

A lot has been said and written about Carmelo Anthony, and this is not the time or place to revisit all of that. He has vocal detractors and ardent supporters. I don't believe in false praise, nor do I believe in unfair criticism. Anthony has accomplished more than most people who ever play basketball. As a freshman, he led Syracuse to an NCAA title; as a professional, he established himself as a lethal one on one scorer. Ultimately, basketball is a team sport, and individual greatness in a team sport is defined by elevating your team to championship contention: he did that in college, but he did not do that in the NBA. Anthony never played in the NBA Finals and he reached the Conference Finals just once in his 19 season NBA career while posting a 3-13 career playoff series record; any player who wins an NBA title posts more playoff series victories in one year (four) than Anthony had in nearly two decades. Read that sentence again, and consider that Shai Gilgeous-Alexander won more playoff series in 2025 than Carmelo Anthony won in 19 NBA seasons!

In Revising the NBA's 50 Greatest Players List, Part VI, I summarized Carmelo Anthony's place in pro basketball history: "Even in his prime he was not a great all-around player. He was a championship player in college who regressed in terms of having a championship mentality in the NBA, which is unusual. Most NCAA champions who have the necessary physical talent to excel in the NBA--which Anthony obviously does--hone the championship habits that they formed in college, but Anthony did not. He was never the best player at his position, he played for talented teams that did not seriously contend for the championship, and he resisted when his coaches tried to guide him toward having more of an impact on winning." Therefore, I do not rank Anthony among pro basketball's 75 greatest players--even though he was selected to the NBA's 75th Anniversary Team in 2021--but it is clear that he deserved first ballot Hall of Fame selection, particularly because the Hall of Fame recognizes accomplishments at all levels of the game. Anthony's Hall of Fame resume includes his college championship, prolific NBA scoring, and extensive FIBA experience. 

Anthony was presented by Dwyane Wade and Allen Iverson. Anthony gave a very powerful speech, describing poetically how he overcame the doubters and deprivations of his youth by staying focused on his vision of what he could become. He declared, "Tonight I don't just step into the Hall of Fame. I carry with me the echoes of every voice that ever told me I couldn't. I walk with the shadows of every alley, every cracked court, every empty plate. I stand for the dreamless, the doubted, the dismissed, for every soul still trapped in the places I broke free from, from Red Hook to Myrtle Avenue." He said that his father "left this world too soon but you never left me." Anthony added, "Your name is my name. Your spirit walks with me in every step I take." He praised his sister Michelle for being his protector and for believing in him "when I didn't even know how to believe in myself." He thanked his mother for teaching him, "Love is action. Sacrifice is quiet. Faith is louder than fear," and he told her, "You are my hero."

He concluded with a message to his children:

Your father isn't perfect, but he is proof--proof that struggle doesn't mean surrender. Proof that the road can be rough and still lead to glory. And so again I say to every child listening, they will tell you to be realistic. I say be relentless. They will say you are dreaming too big. I say dream louder. They will try to label you, box you in, count you out, but remember statistics don't measure heart. They don't account for fight. They don't see the storm that built you. You were made for more. You are more than possible. You are inevitable. 

Selected Articles About Basketball Hall of Fame Induction Ceremonies:

Naismith Memorial Basketball Hall of Fame Inducts 13 Member 2024 Class, Including Vince Carter and Jerry West (Class of 2024) 

Naismith Memorial Basketball Hall of Fame's 2023 Class Includes Dirk Nowitzki, Dwyane Wade, and Gregg Popovich (Class of 2023)

Naismith Memorial Basketball Hall of Fame's 2022 Class Includes NBA Players Lou Hudson, Tim Hardaway, and Manu Ginobili (Class of 2022)  

The Naismith Memorial Basketball Hall of Fame Welcomes 15 New Members and Honors Bill Russell a Second Time (Class of 2021)

Kobe Bryant Headlines the Naismith Memorial Basketball Hall of Fame Induction Ceremony (Class of 2020) 

The Basketball Hall of Fame Welcomes A Diverse Class of 12 Inductees (Class of 2019)

Thoughts and Observations About the 2018 Naismith Memorial Basketball Hall of Fame Enshrinement Ceremony (Class of 2018)

Reflections on the 2017 Naismith Memorial Basketball Hall of Fame Enshrinement Ceremony 

Reflections on the Basketball Hall of Fame Class of 2016 

Bobby "Slick" Leonard Remembers the ABA During his Basketball Hall of Fame Speech (Class of 2014)

The Basketball Hall of Fame Belatedly Welcomes Roger Brown (Class of 2013)

Reflections on the 2012 Basketball Hall of Fame Class 

The A-Train Makes an Overdue Arrival at the Basketball Hall of Fame  (Class of 2011)

Dreams and Memories--Some Personal Reflections on the 2006 Basketball Hall of Fame Enshrinement Ceremony (Class of 2006)

Labels: 2008 Team USA, Basketball Hall of Fame, Billy Donovan, Carmelo Anthony, Danny Crawford, Dwight Howard, Jason Kidd, Jerry Colangelo, Kobe Bryant, Mickey Arison

posted by David Friedman @ 5:21 AM

5 comments

The 2025 Naismith Memorial Basketball Hall of Fame Class Includes Carmelo Anthony and Dwight Howard

The 2025 Naismith Memorial Basketball Hall of Fame class includes eight individual inductees, five of whom have NBA ties: Carmelo Anthony, Dwight Howard, Danny Crawford, Mickey Arison, and Billy Donovan (an NBA head coach for 10 seasons who is being inducted based on his accomplishments as a college coach, capped off by leading Florida to NCAA titles in 2006 and 2007). The other three individual inductees are women's players Sue Bird, Sylvia Fowles, and Maya Moore. The 2008 Team USA squad that won the Olympic gold medal is also being inducted. Four members of that team--Chris Bosh, Kobe Bryant, Jason Kidd, and Dwyane Wade--have already been inducted individually. 

This website focuses primarily on the NBA, so this article will focus on the Hall of Fame inductees who have NBA connections. 

Carmelo Anthony and LeBron James were both rookies in the 2003-04 NBA season, so it is a tribute to James' remarkable longevity that he is still playing at an All-NBA Team level in the year when Anthony is being inducted in the Naismith Memorial Basketball Hall of Fame. James led the Cleveland Cavaliers to the NBA Finals in 2007, but Anthony never played in the NBA Finals and he reached the Conference Finals just once in his 19 season NBA career while posting a 3-13 career playoff series record; any player who wins an NBA title posts more playoff series victories in one year (four) than Anthony had in nearly two decades.

Anthony led Syracuse to the 2003 NCAA title as a freshman, and he then had a very productive professional career during which he earned six All-NBA Team selections and 10 All-Star selections while winning the 2013 scoring title. His 28,289 career regular season points rank 12th in ABA/NBA history. Anthony played in the Olympics for Team USA a record four times, winning a bronze medal in 2004 followed by gold medals in 2008, 2012, and 2016. In Team USA's FIBA World Cup Struggles and the Myth of "Olympic Melo," I noted that Anthony's impact on those gold medal-winning teams has been exaggerated:

"Olympic Melo" is a mythical creature. I am not sure when, why or how the myth began, but the myth is not supported by statistics, the eye test or any other meaningful player evaluation system. Consider Anthony's performance in the 2008 Olympics: he had the second lowest field goal percentage on the team (.422, including .382 in medal round play) and he was benched for the final eight minutes of the gold medal game. During medal round play, Team USA outscored the opposition by 25 points when Anthony was in the game; Team USA outscored the opposition by 52 points when Kobe Bryant was in the game, and they outscored the opposition by 50 points when LeBron James was in the game.

Anthony performed somewhat better in the 2012 Olympics, though his overall numbers were skewed by his stat-padding 37 point explosion versus Nigeria during pool play. Anthony scored eight points on 3-9 field goal shooting during the gold medal game, and throughout the tournament he was often on the bench when the score was close.

In the 2016 Olympics, Anthony scored seven points on 3-7 field goal shooting in the gold medal game. He also had seven rebounds, one of which came after he was reinserted late in a blowout win so that he could set the Team USA Olympic record for career rebounds; he has not been a dominant Olympic rebounder but he holds the U.S. record for most Olympic appearances (four) and most Olympic games played (31, seven more than anyone else), so it is not surprising that he set some career records.

This recitation of facts is not meant to bash Anthony or to diminish his accomplishments and his dedication to Team USA. Here is what I wrote about Anthony after the 2016 gold medal game: "I am not a huge fan of Anthony's game and I am not surprised that he again came up small in the biggest games but I must say that I was moved by how overcome with emotion he was in the moments right after the game. It is obvious that representing his country is very important to Anthony and I commend him for that, particularly since so many players over the years have turned down that opportunity; Anthony has answered that call four times and the flaws in his game do not diminish the dedication that he has demonstrated in support of America and of USA Basketball. Each player on the team committed himself to sacrifice for the greater good; this may not have been a Dream Team but it was an American team that represented America well and it was a pleasure to watch them play the right way in the gold medal game."

In Revising the NBA's 50 Greatest Players List, Part VI, I summarized Anthony's place in pro basketball history: "Even in his prime he was not a great all-around player. He was a championship player in college who regressed in terms of having a championship mentality in the NBA, which is unusual. Most NCAA champions who have the necessary physical talent to excel in the NBA--which Anthony obviously does--hone the championship habits that they formed in college, but Anthony did not. He was never the best player at his position, he played for talented teams that did not seriously contend for the championship, and he resisted when his coaches tried to guide him toward having more of an impact on winning." For those reasons, I do not consider Anthony to be one of pro basketball's 50 or 75 greatest players--even though he was selected to the NBA's 75th Anniversary Team in 2021--but it is clear that he without question earned first ballot Hall of Fame selection after a career filled with high level accomplishments at the collegiate, professional, and international levels. 

Dwight Howard led the NBA in rebounding five times (2008-10, 2012-13), and ranked first in blocked shots twice (2009-10) while winning three Defensive Player of the Year awards (2009-11). He made the All-NBA First Team five straight times (2008-12) and he earned eight All-NBA Team selections overall. Howard ranks 11th in ABA/NBA history with 14,627 career regular season rebounds. During his prime he was the most dominant big man in the NBA, leading the Orlando Magic past LeBron James' Cleveland Cavaliers to the 2009 NBA Finals before losing to Kobe Bryant's L.A. Lakers. Howard posted a 13-11 career playoff series record, including helping the Lakers to win the 2020 "bubble title." Howard should have been selected to the NBA's 75th Anniversary Team, but it is fair to say that he is not the most popular person, and it is unfortunate that his lack of popularity likely played a role in denying him a well-deserved honor.

During Danny Crawford's 32 year NBA officiating career (1985-2017), he logged more than 2000 regular season games, 300 playoff games, and 30 NBA Finals games. He was selected to work in the NBA Finals--the highest honor for an NBA official--in each of his last 23 seasons. As an NBA fan during that entire period, I can say that whenever you saw that Crawford was officiating a game you felt confident that the game would be called well and that he would maintain control without losing his temper or calling unwarranted technical fouls. Crawford's NBA career began at the height of the Magic Johnson/Larry Bird years, which was also the twilight of Julius Erving's career and the start of Michael Jordan's career, and he was still officiating during the early years of Golden State's rise to the top of the league, so Crawford had an up close view of a lot of NBA history.

Mickey Arison, who is being inducted as a Contributor, bought the Miami Heat in 1995, and since that time the Heat have been one of the league's model franchises, capturing NBA titles in 2006, 2012, and 2013 while winning the Eastern Conference Finals seven times (2006, 2011-14, 2020, 2023). Arison is highly respected for his philanthropic contributions to the Miami community and beyond.

Billy Donovan has been a very good NBA coach--posting a .546 regular season career winning percentage--but his Hall of Fame credentials are based on his outstanding college record: 502-206 (.709 winning percentage) in 21 seasons (two at Marshall, followed by 19 at Florida), including nine straight NCAA Tournament appearances (and 14 overall), four Final Fours (2000, 2005-06, 2014), and back to back NCAA titles (2006-07). Though not relevant to his Hall of Fame selection, it should be noted that Donovan was also an excellent player at Providence who played one season in the NBA.

Team USA finished sixth in the 2002 FIBA World Championship, and settled for a bronze medal in the 2004 Olympics. Team USA's bronze medal performance in the 2006 FIBA World Championship required Team USA to earn qualification into the 2008 Olympics, an embarrassing situation for a country that should rightfully expect to dominate international basketball competitions. In The Real Story Behind Team USA's Losses in Previous FIBA Events I explained that Team USA needed to improve defensively and to create better team chemistry. The addition of Kobe Bryant and Jason Kidd to the roster in 2007 solved both problems, and Team USA rolled to victory in the 2007 FIBA Americas Cup--Team USA's first gold medal in any FIBA event since 2003--before Team USA won Olympic gold in 2008. That 2008 gold medal-winning squad was dubbed "The Redeem Team," and is now the 14th team to be inducted in the Naismith Memorial Basketball Hall of Fame.

Labels: 2008 Team USA, Basketball Hall of Fame, Billy Donovan, Carmelo Anthony, Danny Crawford, Dwight Howard, Mickey Arison

posted by David Friedman @ 9:17 PM

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Assessing Carmelo Anthony's Legacy

On Monday May 22, Carmelo Anthony officially announced his retirement. Anthony last played in the NBA on April 5, 2022, when he scored 10 points on 3-10 field goal shooting as his L.A. Lakers lost 121-110 to the Phoenix Suns. NBA fans could be forgiven for thinking that Anthony had already retired--but his departure from the game had not yet been made final and official. Anthony ranks 11th on the ABA/NBA career scoring list with 28,289 points, and he ranks 37th on the ABA/NBA career scoring average list (22.5 ppg). He won the 2012-13 scoring title (28.7 ppg), and he averaged a career-high 28.9 ppg in 2006-07, the first of two times that he ranked second in scoring. Anthony ranks 78th on the ABA/NBA playoff career scoring list with 1914 points, and he ranks 40th on the ABA/NBA playoff career scoring average list (23.1 ppg). Anthony participated in the playoffs in 13 of his 19 seasons.

Anthony made the All-Star team 10 times (2007-08, 2010-17). He played for six different franchises (Denver, New York, Oklahoma City, Houston, Portland, L.A. Lakers), and he earned All-Star selections with two of those teams (Denver and New York). Anthony made the All-NBA Second Team twice (2010, 2013), and he made the All-NBA Third Team four times (2006-07, 2009, 2012). He finished in the top five in MVP voting once (third in 2013). Anthony was selected to the NBA's 75th Anniversary Team in 2021.

Anthony never ranked in the top 20 in a season in rebounding, assists, steals, blocked shots, or field goal percentage. His main skill set strength was that he could score from a variety of areas on the court. He was not a plus defender, and he was not close to elite in any skill set area other than scoring. Despite being a post up threat, Anthony never shot better than .492 from the field, and he shot worse than .450 from the field in 13 of his 19 seasons. The versatility that Anthony displayed while leading Syracuse to the 2003 NCAA title as a freshman did not manifest itself during Anthony's long NBA career. 

Anthony spent the first seven seasons of his NBA career with the Denver Nuggets before the Nuggets traded him to the New York Knicks near the end of his eighth season (2010-11). Anthony earned seven of his All-Star selections and two of his All-NBA selections as a Knick, but he never led the Knicks past the second round of the playoffs. The Knicks won just one playoff series during Anthony's time with the team, and Anthony's overall playoff series record was 3-13. His teams went 28-55 in the playoffs as he shot .414 from the field.

After the Knicks went 31-51 in the 2016-17 season, they traded Anthony to the Oklahoma City Thunder for Enes Kanter, Doug McDermott, and a draft pick that later was used to select Mitchell Robinson. Anthony averaged a then career-low 16.2 ppg in his one season with the Thunder, who then traded him to the Atlanta Hawks as part of a multi-team deal on July 25, 2018. The Hawks released Anthony five days later, and he then signed with the Houston Rockets as a free agent.

In Carmelo Anthony and the Houston Rockets: Subtraction by Addition, I wrote the following after the Rockets signed Anthony:

Anthony won an NCAA title as a freshman at Syracuse when he was a basketball prodigy who could physically overwhelm less talented players. He won a record three Olympic gold medals as a member of Team USA, but his contributions to those victories have been somewhat overhyped in the mainstream media. I gave Anthony a C- minus grade in my Team USA report card for the 2008 Olympics, noting, "Team USA outscored the opposition by 86 points overall when Anthony was on the court and they outscored the opposition by just 25 points when Anthony was on the court during medal round play. Among the five players I tracked, Anthony is the only one who had a negative on court rating for an entire game--and this happened twice: Angola outscored Team USA 46-42 when Anthony was on the court and in the gold medal game Spain outscored Team USA 49-38 when Anthony was on the court. It is no coincidence that Anthony was not in the game for the last eight minutes of the fourth quarter of the gold medal game; throughout the Olympics, Anthony was often on the bench when Team USA made its best runs and when he was in games during such runs it was generally James, Wade and/or Bryant who shouldered most of the load." Anthony performed similarly during the 2012 Olympics, after which I graded him B- and commented, "Anthony is a shoot first player--in both NBA and FIBA competition--who can rebound when he is so inclined but is indifferent at best defensively. When he shot well he provided instant offense but it is noteworthy that when the score was close he was often on the bench; he scored just eight points on 3-9 field goal shooting versus Spain in the gold medal game as Kevin Durant, LeBron James, Kobe Bryant and Chris Paul did the heavy lifting." During the 2016 Olympics, Anthony again struggled in the gold medal game, finishing with just seven points on 3-7 field goal shooting.

So, the idea that Anthony is a proven winner based on his championships won at the NCAA and FIBA levels but has just been in bad situations in the NBA is a distortion, to say the least. The NCAA is obviously not nearly as competitive as the NBA, so leading a team to an NCAA title is no guarantee that a player can lead an NBA team to a title. Elite FIBA play is more competitive than NCAA play--but Anthony was a role player for Team USA behind, at various times, LeBron James, Kobe Bryant, Kevin Durant and Dwyane Wade.

After the Rockets parted ways with Anthony, I wrote an article titled Houston Rockets Abort Ill-Conceived Carmelo Anthony Experiment, and I explained why I was not surprised that Anthony proved to be a poor fit with the Rockets: 

Who could have imagined that Carmelo Anthony would not be a good fit for the Houston Rockets? Only anyone who understands basketball via skill set analysis and informed observation, as opposed to relying on "advanced basketball statistics" or reputation or hype or the endorsements of some of Anthony's NBA buddies (including Chris Paul, who has recently said that Anthony is not just a teammate but rather he is "family").

Carmelo Anthony has demonstrated throughout his NBA career that he is a poor leader--he has enjoyed his best individual and team success when paired with one or more stronger personalities who ran the locker room--and that he has a limited skill set: at his best, he was a very potent one on one scorer from certain areas of the court, but he has always been a poor defender, a reluctant passer and an inconsistent rebounder who is more interested in offensive rebounding than defensive rebounding. None of the above factors suggests that Anthony in his prime could be the best player on an NBA championship team, and those issues have been compounded in recent seasons by the undeniable fact that Anthony retains unrealistic beliefs about his current capabilities even as his one dimensional skill set displays continuous, significant decline.

The above paragraph is what an "old school" scouting report summary of Anthony's game would look like. In my 2018-19 Western Conference Preview, I wrote, "Anthony has a career-long pattern of rarely advancing very far in the playoffs; he is a shoot-first (and second and third) player whose efficiency is declining and whose willingness/ability to contribute in other areas decreases each year. Even if they had stood pat, the Rockets would probably not have won 65 games again; that was an aberration and they are due to regress to the mean. Adding Anthony, though, will probably subtract about 10 wins, while also making this team a less potent playoff force."

The Rockets started the season 4-6 as Anthony averaged career-lows in scoring (13.4 ppg), free throw percentage (.682), assists (.5 apg) and steals (.4 spg) while shooting just a bit above his career low field goal percentage of .404 from last season (.405 this season). The supposed immense challenge of playing alongside Russell Westbrook was the excuse widely provided for the failure of the Carmelo Anthony experiment in Oklahoma City last season, even though last season just continued the steady downward statistical progression that Anthony has suffered for several seasons. This season in Houston would be different, we were sagely informed, because James Harden and Chris Paul would be willing and able to get the ball to Anthony where he can be most effective. Left out of that "analysis," however, was an answer to the obvious question: Where, exactly, is an over the hill, step slow, one dimensional gunner "most effective"?

This is just one illustration of the difference between Real Basketball Analytics and what often is portrayed as basketball analytics. If you have watched Anthony play throughout his career and if you understand basketball then you can see that even Anthony in his prime probably would not have been a great fit for Mike D'Antoni's offense that is predicated on the point guard monopolizing the ball and everyone else being ready to shoot when/if the point guard passes the ball; prime Anthony was at his best when he could go one on one but that is not an option for forwards in D'Antoni's offense.

On January 22, 2019, the Rockets traded Anthony to the Chicago Bulls, who waived Anthony on February 1, 2019. Anthony was out of the NBA until Portland signed him on November 19, 2019. Anthony averaged 15.4 ppg in 58 games with Portland during the 2019-20 season. He stayed with Portland for the 2020-21 season as a bench player, averaging 13.4 ppg.

In a March 15, 2021 article titled Assessing Carmelo Anthony's Current Level of Play and his Overall Legacy, I summarized Anthony's career:

Even during his prime, Anthony did not have an impact on winning commensurate with his reputation. He was a big-time scorer--2013 scoring champion, 14 straight seasons averaging at least 20 ppg--who was not consistently efficient, who was not a great leader, and who was not a great rebounder, passer, or defensive player. Anthony was a productive scorer and he was not afraid to take pressure shots, so he spent most of his career as his team's number one option. After his skills began to decline, his coaches sought to reduce his role or possibly even use him as a sixth man. Anthony publicly mocked the notion that he would be a sixth man, so he had the same fate as other former All-Stars who did not realistically appraise their current capabilities: he ended up out of the league. To Anthony's credit, after a year of being out of the league, he changed his mentality and accepted that in order to return to the NBA he would have to be a third or fourth option and very probably come off of the bench, which is his current role in Portland. The teams that released Anthony were not wrong; Anthony was wrong, but now that he has adopted a more realistic mindset he is able to be a role player.

Nothing that Anthony did with the Lakers in the final season of his career (2021-22) altered the above assessment; he averaged 13.3 ppg as a bench player for the Lakers.

Based on his NCAA title and FIBA resume alone Anthony would be inducted in the Naismith Memorial Basketball Hall of Fame even without considering his 19 year NBA career, but it is more than a slight stretch to rank him as one of the top 75 NBA players of all-time or to anoint him as the best player in Nuggets history: the latter list was topped for a long time by Alex English, who in recent years has been surpassed by two-time regular season MVP Nikola Jokic. I would also rank David Thompson ahead of Anthony on the all-time Nuggets list. 

In terms of both skill set and accomplishments, Anthony ranks well behind the premier forwards of his era, including LeBron James, Tim Duncan, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Kevin Durant, Dirk Nowitzki, Kevin Garnett, Jayson Tatum, and Jimmy Butler.

Labels: Carmelo Anthony, Denver Nuggets, Houston Rockets, L.A. Lakers, New York Knicks, Oklahoma City Thunder, Portland Trail Blazers

posted by David Friedman @ 12:41 AM

8 comments

This Date in Lakers History, 2006 and 2022

The phrase "making your teammates better" is both overused and meaningless. One player cannot "make" another player better--but a great player can make his team better, and there is a great "not advanced" statistic for that: wins and losses. 

For example, consider this date in L.A. Lakers history. 

On February 14, 2006, the Lakers had a 26-25 record. The undisputed best player for the 2006 Lakers was Kobe Bryant, who is not cited as often for making his teams better as he should be when one considers who his teammates have been, how well they performed alongside him, and how much his teams won. The 2005-06 L.A. Lakers finished sixth in the Western Conference with a 45-37 record. They then pushed the third seeded Phoenix Suns to seven games in the first round of the playoffs.

The top five scorers for the 2005-06 Lakers were Kobe Bryant (35.4 ppg), Lamar Odom (14.8 ppg), Smush Parker (11.5 ppg), Chris Mihm (10.2 ppg), and Brian Cook (7.9 ppg). Lakers not named Kobe Bryant combined for one career All-Star selection before, during, and after that season (Andrew Bynum, who played 338 minutes in 2005-06, made the All-Star team in 2012). 

On February 14, 2022, the Lakers have a 26-31 record. The undisputed best player for the 2022 Lakers is LeBron James, who is often credited with "making his teammates better" despite the fact that every All-Star who has played alongside James has suffered declining statistics: that list includes Kyrie Irving, Kevin Love, Dwyane Wade, Chris Bosh, Anthony Davis, and the much-maligned Russell Westbrook, who played at an MVP level in the second half of last season before being thrown on the proverbial trash heap in L.A. so far this season. The top five scorers for the 2021-22 Lakers are LeBron James (29.0 ppg), Anthony Davis (23.3 ppg), Russell Westbrook (18.3 ppg), Carmelo Anthony (13.4 ppg), and Malik Monk (13.0 ppg). Lakers not names James combined for 36 All-Star selections plus three selections to the NBA's 75th Anniversary Team. 

Comparing the two teams without counting Bryant and James, the 2022 Lakers have three 75th Anniversary Team members, while the 2006 Lakers had one player who made one All-Star Team six years later. Yet, the 2022 Lakers are ninth in the Western Conference, and if the season ended today they would have to earn a playoff spot via the Play-In Tournament; the 2006 Lakers were one defensive rebound away from beating the powerful Suns in game six in the first round of the playoffs.

James is an extraordinarily talented player who has accomplished a lot during his incredible career, but everything on his teams happens on his terms, and the main focus is not always team success. Davis is in his prime. Westbrook was playing at an MVP level just a few months ago. Anthony provides scoring punch off of the bench. Monk would have been the third best player on the 2006 Lakers behind Bryant and Odom. If you took Bryant and James out of the equation, and arranged a time machine game between the 2022 Lakers and the 2006 Lakers, the 2022 Lakers would win by 20 points--but the difference is that when you put both players in the equation James has been unwilling/unable to elevate the 2022 Lakers, while Bryant figured out how to push, pull, and drag a 2006 Lakers team with very limited talent not just into the playoffs but almost to the second round--and after the Lakers added one one-time All-Star to that limited roster in 2007, Bryant carried the Lakers to three straight NBA Finals, winning back to back titles in the 2009 and 2010 seasons.

There is a good reason that every time I hear the ridiculous comparisons of LeBron James to Michael Jordan my response is, "LeBron James has not even passed Kobe Bryant yet, so why is anyone comparing James to Jordan?" James has won fewer championships than Bryant with a worse Finals winning percentage, and James has demonstrated that he needs multiple All-Stars alongside him to win titles. It is not 100% clear that James surpassed Tim Duncan on the list of great players in the post-Jordan era; Duncan and James faced each other in three NBA Finals, with Duncan's teams winning two out of three--and Duncan was one Ray Allen three pointer away from going 3-0 versus James in the NBA Finals. Shaquille O'Neal did not stay at his absolute peak as long as Bryant, Duncan, and James did, but are we absolutely sure that peak James is better than peak O'Neal? I'm taking peak Jordan over any of those players, and James has to establish clear superiority in the post-Jordan era before being compared to Jordan.

James is a great player, but the media-driven narratives asserting that he is the greatest player of all-time and that he is the best at "making his teammates better" are demonstrably false.

Labels: Anthony Davis, Brian Cook, Carmelo Anthony, Chris Mihm, Kobe Bryant, L.A. Lakers, Lamar Odom, LeBron James, Malik Monk, Russell Westbrook, Smush Parker

posted by David Friedman @ 9:40 PM

15 comments

Portland Loses in First Round for Fourth Time in Five Years

Damian Lillard averaged 34.3 ppg with .463/.449/.940 shooting splits during the first round of the playoffs, but his Portland Trail Blazers still lost 4-2 to the Denver Nuggets. Lillard set the NBA single series record with 35 three pointers made, including a playoff single game record 12 three pointers in his scintillating 55 point performance in Portland's 147-140 double overtime loss in game five.   

Despite all of the attention that is paid to numbers/"analytics" in recent years, there is still a significant lack of understanding and discernment regarding which numbers are meaningful and how to interpret those numbers. To cite two examples, a lot of attention is paid to overall shooting efficiency and last second shots. Shooting efficiency matters, but it must be placed in context by understanding a player's role and skill set. A player who is very efficient on a small number of field goal attempts is not a franchise player, but a player whose numbers may not look efficient may still be a franchise player if he has the necessary skill set and mentality to control a game down the stretch because controlling a game down the stretch matters more than hitting last second shots; to some extent, last second shots are random events. Kobe Bryant's game-winning shot versus the Phoenix Suns during game four of the 2006 NBA playoffs is an exciting and oft-replayed highlight, but Bryant's ability to control a game down the stretch--which he displayed in many games in the NBA Finals and Conference Finals en route to winning five NBA titles--is more impressive and meaningful. Yes, you need the right skill set and mentality to make a buzzer beater, but it is easier to hit one shot than it is to take over a game for an extended period of time.

Lillard's "logo shots" are fun to watch, and he deserves credit for honing his craft to the extent that he is willing and able to make those shots--but Lillard is not consistently able to take over playoff games down the stretch for extended periods of time. Yes, if the game is close in the final seconds he can hit a "logo shot" to save his team, but late in a playoff series he is more likely to wear down than he is to take over. Lillard had a very productive series versus Denver, but--as often happens with smaller players--he wore down and he did not have much left in the tank late in game six with the outcome still up for grabs: he shot 1-9 from the field in the second half, including 1-5 in the fourth quarter. 

I respect Lillard's work ethic, his skill set, and his mentality of trying to win in Portland as opposed to going somewhere else to form a "super team." It is not disrespectful to Lillard to state the truth: an undersized player is not going to lead a team to an NBA title, especially when that undersized player relies on long jumpers for a team that is subpar defensively and cannot survive high variance shooting. Even if Lillard can make 40% of his "logo shots"--and he clearly cannot do that late in a series when he is worn down--that would still mean that 60% of the possessions during which he shoots those shots are empty possessions (not including a few offensive rebounds or defensive fouls). A poor defensive team cannot survive that many empty possessions.

What about Stephen Curry? Do his three championship rings refute the contentions made in the above paragraph? No, because Curry's "logo shots" are not the main reason that his teams won championships; he is a great player, and those shots are great highlights, but each Golden State championship team was very good collectively on defense and also featured several exceptional individual defensive players, including but not limited to Draymond Green, Andre Iguodala, and Klay Thompson. Without that defensive foundation, the Warriors would not have won a single championship, no matter how many "logo shots" Curry made. It is worth noting that Curry has yet to win a Finals MVP, and it is also worth noting that the Warriors did not become a multiple-championship winning team until they acquired Kevin Durant, who is nearly a foot taller than Curry and Lillard. Durant not only can take over games and playoff series down the stretch, but he is also an above average defensive player.

This is Portland's fourth first round exit in the past five seasons, sandwiched around losing 4-0 to the Golden State Warriors in the 2019 Western Conference Finals. Lillard is very realistic about where Portland should be ranked among the best NBA teams: "I mean, we didn't win a championship, so obviously where we are now isn't good enough. I don't know what a shakeup looks like or what changes will be made or could be made, but obviously as is it wasn't good enough. We came up short against a team without their starting point guard and shooting guard (Jamal Murray and Will Barton)...Obviously, where we are isn't good enough to win a championship if it's not good enough to get out of a first-round series with two of their best three or four players not on the floor."

Lillard is not fooled by Portland's one Western Conference Finals appearance. He knows that the Trail Blazers as presently constituted are not a legit championship contender. In my evaluation of Daryl Morey's tenure in Houston, I noted, "In the past 13 years, 10 Eastern Conference teams and 10 Western Conference teams made at least one Conference Finals appearance and six teams in each conference made at least two Conference Finals appearances." Stating that Portland's one Western Conference Finals appearance during the Lillard era is fluky and not particularly significant is not, as some might say, "hate": the statistical evidence demonstrates that making it to the Conference Finals once is not exceptional in a league designed to maximize parity, and that point is reinforced by the reality that at no other time during the Lillard era have the Trail Blazers come close to duplicating that feat. Something not particularly unusual that only happened once in the midst of years of mediocrity is, by definition, fluky and not particularly significant. 

Those historical and statistical facts take nothing away from Lillard's individual statistics, skill set, and work ethic. He deserves much respect for everything that he has accomplished. That being said, in order for Lillard to win a championship in Portland the Trail Blazers must add a dominant wing player or post player, and the team must cultivate a defensive mindset.

---

Carmelo Anthony's legacy is much-discussed but poorly understood. Based on his college career and his prolific NBA statistics he is a lock to be inducted in the Naismith Memorial Basketball Hall of Fame. However, he is at least one level below the greatest players of his time, guys like Kobe Bryant, Kevin Durant, Tim Duncan, LeBron James, and Shaquille O'Neal. Anthony does not quite make it to the next level, either, because that group includes (to list just a few, in no particular order) Dwyane Wade, Stephen Curry, Kawhi Leonard, and Russell Westbrook. Just as it is not "hate" or disrespect to accurately rank Lillard, it is not "hate" or "disrespect" to accurately rank Anthony.  

After Portland beat Denver 123-109 in the first game of the series, I wrote the following about Carmelo Anthony:

Anthony's emergence as a somewhat effective sixth man (13.4 ppg on .421 field goal shooting while starting just three of 69 games during the regular season) has inspired many commentators to wax poetic about what a supposed injustice it was that Anthony was out of the league for over a year. Let's set the record straight: Anthony will be inducted in the Basketball Hall of Fame primarily because of his scoring (and also for leading Syracuse to the 2003 NCAA title), but he is no longer capable of consistently being a big-time scorer, and the other areas of the game that were never strong suits have not improved. Therefore, he is best suited to coming off of the bench--and when that idea was first proposed to him, he laughed out loud, much like Lamar Odom said that Phil Jackson "must have bumped his head" when Jackson determined that Odom should be the Lakers' sixth man. Unlike Anthony, though, Odom soon embraced his new role. When Anthony refused to accept his role and/or be effective/comfortable in that role, he ended up out of the league; when Anthony decided to accept that role and be reasonably productive (albeit not very efficient) in that role, Portland signed him. 

In the last four games that Anthony played in before the playoffs (he was inactive for two games during this run), he scored three points (1-3 field goal shooting), 18 points (7-13 field goal shooting), five points (1-7 field goal shooting), and 10 points (3-10 field goal shooting). That works out to 9.0 ppg on .364 field goal shooting--and before anyone calls this "cherry picking," those numbers are not that much worse than his season averages, and if you scan through his 2020-21 game log you see 25 games in which he shot less than .400 from the field--that is more than one out of three of his total games played. Anthony shot .300 or less from the field in 18 games. Maybe if he was still a primary offensive threat who was drawing double teams to open up the floor we might be able to cut him some slack for all of that bricklaying, but he is the team's fifth leading scorer--and he is not making much of a contribution in rebounding (11th on the team in rebounds per minute), assists (eighth on the team in assists per minute) or defense.

Do the commentators who say things like "Carmelo Anthony is a walking bucket" realize how uninformed they sound every time they open their mouths? Carmelo Anthony is an aging former All-Star who is still capable of scoring double figures, albeit not very efficiently. 

There is no doubt that Anthony enjoyed scoring 18 points versus his former team in game one. How many 18 point games will he have in this series? He matched or exceeded that total in 19 out of 69 games this season, so if this series goes seven games he might have one more 18 point game, but there is a decent chance that this turns out to be his highest scoring and best shooting game in the series. 

That is not "hate"; that is just looking at his production, and projecting what is most likely to happen. If Anthony can exceed his established production rate, good for him.

That analysis aged very well: Anthony did not reach the 18 point mark again in the series. Anthony posted solid numbers in Portland's game six loss (14 points on 5-9 field goal shooting, five rebounds, four assists), but his game-worst -17 plus/minus number provides at least a glimpse at his impact on team success.

Anthony's individual efficiency during game six was unusual. During the series, he averaged 12.3 ppg, 3.2 rpg, and 1.5 apg while shooting .417 from the field. He ranked fifth on the team in scoring. Denver outscored Portland by 1.3 ppg overall, but Denver outscored Portland by 8 ppg when Anthony was on the court. Whether you prefer to evaluate players by the eye test, by skill set analysis, by individual box score numbers, or by plus/minus, it is difficult to find an objective reason to assert that Anthony had a positive impact for Portland during the playoffs.

Many commentators have expressed confusion--if not outrage--that Anthony was out of the NBA for over a year. There is nothing confusing or outrageous about what happened. At this stage of his career, Anthony is an inefficient, one dimensional player who does not draw double teams and does not provide much value other than scoring. He cannot be a starter or top scoring option on any team hoping to make a deep playoff run--but, Anthony initially scoffed at the notion that he should now be a bench player with a reduced role. In contrast, Vince Carter accepted such a role reduction gracefully, and he left the NBA on his terms after playing a record 22 seasons.

Anthony's absence from the NBA and his subsequent return are easily understood by anyone who objectively examines his declining skills, the role best suited to those skills, and his initial reluctance to accept that role.

Many media members who have had direct interactions with Anthony say positive things about him. That may explain why so many media members spoke up on Anthony's behalf when he was not in the league, and why they continue to speak up on his behalf now--but personal sentiment (whether positive or negative) should not play a role in player evaluation.

Labels: Carmelo Anthony, Damian Lillard, Kobe Bryant, Portland Trail Blazers

posted by David Friedman @ 5:45 PM

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Assessing Carmelo Anthony's Current Level of Play and his Overall Legacy

Carmelo Anthony scored 26 points on Saturday during Portland's 125-121 victory over Minnesota, and he moved past Hakeem Olajuwon into 13th place on the ABA/NBA career regular season scoring list. Anthony added 14 more points to his career total yesterday as Portland lost the rematch with Minnesota, 114-112, and he has now scored 26,971 career regular season points. Minnesota has the worst record in the league (9-30), so a 1-1 split is not great for Portland, a team that has aspirations to make noise in the playoffs.

Often, after a player reaches a statistical milestone one can expect the media to (1) ignore ABA statistics/ABA players and (2) get caught up in the moment and exaggerate the greatness of the player who reached the milestone. 

I have yet to see, read, or hear any coverage about Anthony that mentions the ABA players who remain ahead of him on the all-time scoring list. Three of the top 11 scorers in pro basketball history (Julius Erving, 30,026 points, eighth all-time; Moses Malone, 29,580 points, ninth all-time; Dan Issel, 27,482 points, 11th all-time) played in the ABA, all three of those players are in the Hall of Fame, and two of those players (Erving and Malone) are on the NBA's official 50 Greatest Players List. Erving, Malone, and Issel remain ahead of Anthony on the career scoring list, but the NBA and its media partners pretend that the ABA did not exist and do not officially count the statistics posted by ABA players (just to clarify, Malone officially remains ahead of Anthony even without counting his ABA numbers, which is why Anthony is being touted as the 11th leading scorer now, with Erving and Issel being ignored).

In contrast, the NFL does not pretend that Joe Namath's AFL numbers and accomplishments do not exist; in fact, the league embraces his legacy as the first quarterback to lead an AFL team to a Super Bowl win against an NFL team. The NBA's Orwellian preference to stuff the ABA down the proverbial memory hole is baffling and wrong. 

Anthony's career nearly came to an ignominious end after the Houston Rockets released him early in the 2018-19 season. Anthony did not play again in the NBA until nearly midway through the 2019-20 season, when Portland signed him. Since Anthony came back, we have been fed a narrative about the injustice that supposedly was done to Anthony and about how Anthony has revitalized his career. As is often the case, reality differs significantly from the narrative that we are being fed.

Even during his prime, Anthony did not have an impact on winning commensurate with his reputation. He was a big-time scorer--2013 scoring champion, 14 straight seasons averaging at least 20 ppg--who was not consistently efficient, who was not a great leader, and who was not a great rebounder, passer, or defensive player. Anthony was a productive scorer and he was not afraid to take pressure shots, so he spent most of his career as his team's number one option. After his skills began to decline, his coaches sought to reduce his role or possibly even use him as a sixth man. Anthony publicly mocked the notion that he would be a sixth man, so he had the same fate as other former All-Stars who did not realistically appraise their current capabilities: he ended up out of the league. To Anthony's credit, after a year of being out of the league, he changed his mentality and accepted that in order to return to the NBA he would have to be a third or fourth option and very probably come off of the bench, which is his current role in Portland. The teams that released Anthony were not wrong; Anthony was wrong, but now that he has adopted a more realistic mindset he is able to be a role player.

How well is Anthony playing? If you just listen to the media commentary, you might think that he is having a great season and that he is possibly even a Sixth Man Award candidate (an NBA Radio host said as much this weekend). This season Anthony is averaging 14.2 ppg while shooting .415 from the field (the third worst field goal percentage of his career), including .382 from three point range (better than his career mark of .350). That scoring average is the lowest of Anthony's career (not counting his 10 game "season" before Houston cut him in 2018-19, when he averaged 13.4 ppg). He is averaging a career-low 3.4 rpg and that number is not just a result of reduced minutes; he is averaging a career low in terms of rebounds per minute as well. Anthony's plus/minus number is -2.4. Portland is being outscored by .5 ppg overall, so the team loses ground with Anthony on the court. If you prefer "advanced basketball statistics," this season Anthony has a -1.7 Box Plus/Minus number, ranking sixth on the team. Unless Anthony improves, this would be the fourth straight season that Anthony posts a negative number in this statistic, after posting a negative Box Plus/Minus number only once in his first 14 seasons. 

I do not rely on plus/minus or Box Plus/Minus, but I am citing those numbers to supplement what the eye test reveals to anyone who has watched Anthony with understanding this year. An accurate and unbiased scouting report of Anthony would state that he remains a one dimensional player, a scorer who contributes very little as a rebounder, passer, or defensive player. Anthony does not have the explosive first step that he displayed during his prime. His three point shooting is a little better than it was during his prime. He is still capable of scoring in the post, but he does so less efficiently that he did during his best seasons. 

Anthony is a solid bench player, albeit a bench player with a resume that will likely eventually take him to the Hall of Fame. He has not revived his career so much as he has accepted his limitations and filled the sixth man role without public complaint. He is not the best sixth man in the league, but he is a decent sixth man who--like many other sixth men--is capable of scoring 20-plus points on a given night. If Anthony had accepted his current role three years ago after his skills had fallen off, he would have not bounced around until he ended up out of the league. 

Media members who I respect--most notably, Frank Isola--say that Anthony is a classy person who is always gracious to them. Perhaps that is why Anthony receives so much favorable coverage as his career winds down. I wish Anthony well and it is nice to see him accept his limitations, but appreciating his career and appreciating what he is doing now does not require us to exaggerate his overall accomplishments or his current level of play.

Labels: ABA, Carmelo Anthony, Dan Issel, Hakeem Olajuwon, Julius Erving, Moses Malone, NBA

posted by David Friedman @ 10:31 PM

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Blazers Shoot Down Rockets Despite Westbrook's Triple Double

Portland defeated Houston 117-107 on Wednesday night despite Russell Westbrook erupting for 31 points, 12 assists, 11 rebounds and just one turnover while shooting 11-22 from the field. Westbrook had a +1 plus/minus number in 42 minutes, which means that the Rockets were outscored by 11 points during the six minutes that he rested. Damian Lillard led Portland with 25 points on 8-20 field goal shooting while contributing seven rebounds and seven assists; he had a +4 plus/minus number in 38 minutes. Lillard is having an All-Star caliber season but his Blazers are a sub.-500 team and if it was not obvious before then it should be obvious now that Lillard is not an MVP level player who can just carry a team without a lot of help. C.J. McCollum, Lillard's excellent backcourt mate, scored 24 points on 9-18 field goal shooting, and had a +11 plus/minus number (second best on his team behind only Kent Bazemore's +14 in 32 minutes) in 38 minutes.
 
Carmelo Anthony scored 18 points and grabbed 12 rebounds, exacting a measure of revenge against the team that released him after just 10 games played last season. He shot 7-10 from the field, and he had a +4 plus/minus number in 34 minutes, which means that the Blazers were +6 in the 14 minutes that he did not play, but there is no doubt that Anthony played aggressively and effectively. Anthony hurt Houston in the post, though it is odd that the Rockets did not double team Anthony, a reluctant passer who had just one assist. Perhaps this is a reflection of Houston's general philosophy that post up plays are not efficient; that may be true in a broad sense, but Carmelo Anthony posting up one on one against a smaller player is an efficient play even at this advanced stage of Anthony's career.

Anthony is averaging 16.3 ppg (third on the team) on .441 field goal shooting in 27 games with the Blazers after sitting out most of last season. He may have a little bit more left in the tank as a scorer than it seemed like he did last year, but the reality is that Portland was awful before he arrived (5-9) and still subpar after he arrived (12-15 when he has played, 1-0 in the one game that he missed). Anthony can score in the post against smaller, physically overmatched players, and he can sporadically hit spot up jumpers, but those skills do not make up for his deficits in other areas. If Anthony wanted to prove that he is still an NBA caliber player then he has done so, but he has also shown that he is no better than a third wheel on a non-playoff team, as opposed to being an All-Star. It would be interesting to see if Anthony would be willing to accept a bench role on a playoff team, because it is difficult to picture him being a starter for a playoff team--certainly not for a playoff team that has any plans of advancing past the first round.

As for Houston, Westbrook has scored at least 20 points in each of his last 15 games, and even after this loss the Rockets are 11-4 in those contests, a .733 winning percentage that is equivalent to a 60-22 record over 82 games. The Rockets are just 3-3 without Westbrook this season, and they are 23-11 with him, a 56 win pace over 82 games. Westbrook has seven triple doubles this season, and the Rockets are 5-2 in those games. This was his 41st career 30 point triple double, second all-time, and his teams are 29-12 in those games, equivalent to a 58-24 record over 82 games; Oscar Robertson holds the record for 30 point triple doubles with 116, and his teams went 82-34 in those games, also equivalent to a 58-24 record over 82 games.

Westbrook has had a significant positive impact on the Rockets in his first season with the team. Westbrook's rebounding has helped Houston improve vastly in that department. Last season, the Rockets' rebounding differential of -3.4 ranked 27th in the league, but this season the Rockets rank 10th with a 1.1 rebounding differential. Westbrook is the team's second leading rebounder (7.7 rpg). The Rockets are significantly more productive offensively (119.0 ppg, second in the league) than they were last season (113.9 ppg, 11th in the league), and thus even with their perpetually leaky defense they still have a slightly better point differential this season than last season (5.1 compared to 4.8). Jeff Van Gundy pointed out during the ESPN telecast that Westbrook has added an open court dynamic that the Rockets did not have before.

James Harden scored a season-low 13 points, shooting 3-12 from the field and posting a -11 plus/minus number, tied for game-worst "honors" with teammate Eric Gordon. As is often the case, teams that are not whistled for an excessive amount of fouls against Harden--he shot 6-8 from the free throw line--are able to contain him. The main reasons that Harden is often tough to guard are that he is allowed to travel/commit offensive fouls, and then opposing players are whistled for phantom fouls if they even breathe on him.

Harden may very well set the "non-Wilt Chamberlain" single season scoring average record this season, but his gaudy individual numbers do not have as much impact on winning as is widely assumed, a truth that is painfully revealed to Houston fans on an annual basis in the playoffs. The Rockets could actually be a title contender if they used Westbrook appropriately on a consistent basis, but halfway through the season it appears that they will only fully utilize Westbrook sporadically, and thus they are likely heading toward a first round or second round playoff exit.

As for Lillard and the Blazers, the media darlings of last year's playoffs may not even qualify for postseason play in 2020. I suppose that being the third leading scorer on a non-playoff team is a better way for Anthony to end his career than being cut and not being picked up by any other team, but the fact that Anthony is willing and able to play this role for this team in 2020 does not prove that Oklahoma City and Houston were wrong to conclude that he could not help their squads when they let him go.

Labels: C.J. McCollum, Carmelo Anthony, Damian Lillard, Houston Rockets, James Harden, Portland Trail Blazers, Russell Westbrook

posted by David Friedman @ 2:36 AM

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Carmelo Anthony Wins Western Conference Player of the Week Honors

Carmelo Anthony just earned the Western Conference Player of the Week award after averaging 22.3 ppg, 7.7 rpg and 2.7 apg as his Portland Trail Blazers went 3-0 last week. This is Anthony's 19th Player of the Week award, but his first since March 10, 2014.

Anthony had a shaky season debut after being out of the league for over a year, and in his first three games with the team he averaged just 13.0 ppg, 4.3 rpg and 1.7 apg while shooting .441 from the field (including .313 from three point range) and .667 from the free throw line as Portland went 0-3. Anthony's improved performance in the next three games pushed his overall six game averages to 17.7 ppg, 6.0 rpg and 2.2 apg in 30.7 mpg.

Each of Anthony's first three games took place on the road, while Portland played two of the next three games at home as Anthony found his stride and the team won three games in a row for the first time since April 2019, when the Trail Blazers won the final three games of the regular season and then captured the first two games of their first round playoff series versus Oklahoma City.

It will be interesting to see if Anthony and the Trail Blazers can maintain anything close to the level of play from the last three games for the rest of the season. The three wins accompanied by gaudy statistics came at the expense of Oklahoma City and Chicago (twice). Portland faces a big challenge tonight on the road versus the L.A. Clippers, but then the Trail Blazers have a four game homestand during which they play Sacramento, the L.A. Lakers, Oklahoma City, and the New York Knicks; the L.A. teams will be tough to beat, but the other games should be very winnable, particularly at home.

Labels: Carmelo Anthony, Portland Trail Blazers

posted by David Friedman @ 6:11 PM

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Carmelo Anthony's Inefficient Season Debut is Not Surprising

It is not easy to return to the NBA after an extended absence, regardless of the reason for that absence. Michael Jordan shot just 7-28 from the field in a loss to the Indiana Pacers in his first game back after he retired (the first time) from the NBA to play minor league baseball. The main thing that he showed during that game is that he still had the necessary stamina and skills to take a high volume of shots against NBA competition. Jordan soon regained his efficiency, reasserted his dominance, and teamed up with Scottie Pippen to lead the Chicago Bulls to three straight championships during the next three full seasons.

So, it would be premature and unfair to offer a definitive assessment of Carmelo Anthony's current capabilities after just one game back. Nevertheless, it must be said that his season debut with Portland on Tuesday night should not surprise anyone who has followed his career closely. New Orleans beat Portland 115-104 as Anthony scored 10 points on 4-14 field goal shooting in 24 minutes. Anthony had a -20 plus/minus rating, by far the worst in the game (next was C.J. McCollum's -9). Anthony had four rebounds, no assists and a game-high tying five turnovers. He did not attempt a free throw.

This has been the Anthony story for quite some time, and even more so in recent years: he provides little contribution other than scoring, but he no longer scores efficiently, and his team not only loses but his team performs significantly worse with him on the court than it does when he is on the bench. Anthony has never been a good defensive player, and he was never exceptional as a rebounder or passer, but those limitations mattered less when Anthony could consistently score 25-30 ppg at a reasonably efficient clip. Now, Anthony is not a volume scorer, and he is less efficient than ever, which makes it difficult to justify putting him on the court for extended minutes when he is also not going to contribute much as a defender, rebounder or passer.

Apparently, Portland plans to keep Anthony in the starting lineup, which is not only baffling but also a sign of just how desperate things have become for a team that made the Western Conference Finals last year. Unless Anthony discovers a Fountain of Youth that enables him to regain his form from several years ago, it is difficult to picture Anthony as a rotation player for a playoff team, let alone as a starter playing significant minutes.

Labels: Carmelo Anthony, Portland Trail Blazers

posted by David Friedman @ 1:40 AM

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Carmelo Anthony Receives Another Chance to End his Career on a Positive Note

The struggling, disappointing 4-8 Portland Trail Blazers--figuring that they have nothing to lose--have signed Carmelo Anthony to a one-year non-guaranteed contract that will become official assuming that he passes a physical. Portland made the Western Conference Finals last season but injuries to multiple frontcourt players have contributed to the team's slow start.

Anthony is a 10-time All-Star, six-time member of the All-NBA Team and the 2013 scoring champion. However, he has not averaged at least 20 ppg since 2016-17, and he has not shot at least .440 from the field since 2014-15. Anthony has not played in an NBA game since November 8, 2018, when he completed a 10 game stint in Houston during which he averaged 13.4 ppg on .405 field goal shooting while getting lit up like a Christmas tree on defense. During Anthony's last two seasons--78 games in 2017-18 with the Oklahoma City Thunder, and then his 2018 cameo with the Rockets before being cut--his never great defense became progressively worse, and he showed that he cannot provide enough at the other end of the court to make up for his defensive deficiencies. He also chafed at times at no longer being the focal point of the offense.

Many commentators have acted like it is a big mystery why Anthony has been out of the league for a year, but there is not a huge market for a high volume, low efficiency, past his prime scorer who wants to be the focal point of the offense when it is hard to put him on the court for extended periods of time without negatively impacting the team at both ends of the court.

By all accounts, Anthony is a nice person who treats his teammates, the fans, and the media members with respect. Many people are rooting for him.

However, it is unlikely that Anthony has regained the step that he had already lost by last year, or that he can be even minimally effective on defense. Perhaps a year out of the game, and only being able to return with a non-guaranteed deal, has humbled Anthony to the extent that he is fully committed to being a role player. If so, maybe he can provide a scoring spark off of the bench for 15-20 minutes a game while being carefully hidden on defense.

That would not be the career conclusion that Anthony envisioned a few years ago, but it would be much better than ending his career by being cut after just 10 games.

I don't believe that Anthony will be much more effective or productive for Portland than he was for Oklahoma City or Houston, but I hope that I am wrong, and that Anthony can finish his career on a relatively positive note.

Labels: Carmelo Anthony, Portland Trail Blazers

posted by David Friedman @ 12:25 AM

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Team USA’s FIBA World Cup Struggles and the Myth of “Olympic Melo”

Team USA has a 2-0 record in first round FIBA World Cup play with one game to go, and has already qualified to advance to the second round regardless of the outcome of tomorrow's game versus Japan. Team USA beat the Czech Republic 88-67 in their first game, but Team USA hardly looked impressive against a team that is not a FIBA powerhouse. In their second game, Team USA narrowly escaped with a 93-92 overtime victory against Turkey, another squad that is not a top contender.

This may be the weakest squad to represent the United States in a major FIBA event since the United States first put professional players on Team USA in the 1992 Olympics. Why is Team USA struggling? Team USA lacks talent, chemistry and size.

Team USA does not have the best player in this event--that would be Greece's Giannis Antetokounmpo, the 2019 NBA regular season MVP--or the second best player in the event, Serbia's Nikola Jokic, a member of the 2019 All-NBA First Team. One could debate whether or not the United States has the third best player in this event, but first one would have to stipulate who the United States' best player is, because that is not clear. Candidates include Donovan Mitchell, Kemba Walker and Jayson Tatum. Mitchell leads the team in mpg (27.1) and ranks second in scoring (12.5 ppg). Walker is second in mpg (25.1) and first in scoring (13.5 ppg). Tatum is third in mpg (24.3), fifth in scoring (10.5 ppg) and second in rebounding (7.5 rpg). Walker is the only current Team USA player who has made the All-NBA team even once (All-NBA Third Team in 2019).

One could argue that from players 1-12 Team USA has the best overall talent, but even that is debatable. In such conversations, it is easy to confuse athletic ability with basketball talent. Team USA's players might be able to run faster and/or jump higher on average than the players from other FIBA teams, but that does not necessarily mean that Team USA has better overall basketball talent.

Chemistry is often an issue for Team USA in FIBA events, because other countries have national teams that have played together in FIBA competition for many years, while Team USA's roster is usually put together at the last moment. Chemistry in this sense has nothing to do with players having a bad attitude, but rather refers to players not being used to playing with each other under FIBA rules and conditions. Here are just a few of the differences between the FIBA game and the NBA game: A FIBA game consists of four 10 minute quarters as opposed to four 12 minute quarters, goaltending/basket interference is allowed in FIBA play once the ball hits the rim, and the FIBA three point line is closer to the hoop. Some of these differences may not seem significant, but we have often seen Team USA struggle to adopt to one or more of these variations. Another difference is the quality and style of the officiating, which affects play at both ends of the court and can affect rotations based on foul trouble. You may recall that in the 2004 Olympics Tim Duncan, an all-time NBA great who is not a foul-prone player, was plagued by foul trouble.

Team USA has three big men: Myles Turner, Brook Lopez and Mason Plumlee. Plumlee played five minutes versus the Czech Republic and did not play at all versus Turkey. Lopez is averaging 3.0 ppg in 9.0 mpg. Turner is fifth on the team in mpg (22.2) and leads Team USA in rebounding (8.0 rpg) but he is scoring just 7.5 ppg while shooting .357 from the field. Turner's rebounding and shot blocking/rim protection are important but he is barely playing half of the time, and the rest of the time Team USA is either going small or else utilizing a big man who is not particularly effective in FIBA play.

Due to the above issues regarding talent, chemistry and size, it will not be shocking if Team USA loses at least one game or even if Team USA fails to win the gold medal. This is not a dominant FIBA team. This is a team that, if it plays well and maximizes its potential, is capable of winning the gold medal, but this is a team that also might have to struggle to win a medal at all.

What about coaching? Gregg Popovich is an all-time great NBA coach but his FIBA resume is a bit thin, and not much to write home about. He was an assistant coach for two of the worst performances in Team USA's FIBA history: the 2002 FIBA World Championship (sixth place) and the 2004 Olympics (bronze medal). At the end of regulation of the Turkey game, Popovich went small, much like when he took out Tim Duncan near the end of game six of the 2013 NBA Finals. Taking out Duncan resulted in the Miami Heat getting an offensive rebound and Ray Allen hitting a three pointer that saved the series for the Heat; Ersan Ilyasova's offensive rebound/tip in with 12 seconds remaining in regulation put Turkey up 81-79 and Team USA would have lost had Tatum not hit two free throws after being fouled just before time expired.

Again, I am not saying that Team USA cannot win the gold medal, but I am saying that it will be difficult to win the gold medal and that they have to play better and smarter than they have played in the first two games.

As Team USA's tryouts were being held, Carmelo Anthony, who has washed out of the NBA, publicly expressed his interest in playing for Team USA, and Team USA publicly expressed their interest in not adding him to the roster. Would Team USA be better off with "Olympic Melo" leading the way?

No! "Olympic Melo" is a mythical creature. I am not sure when, why or how the myth began, but the myth is not supported by statistics, the eye test or any other meaningful player evaluation system. Consider Anthony's performance in the 2008 Olympics: he had the second lowest field goal percentage on the team (.422, including .382 in medal round play) and he was benched for the final eight minutes of the gold medal game. During medal round play, Team USA outscored the opposition by 25 points when Anthony was in the game; Team USA outscored the opposition by 52 points when Kobe Bryant was in the game, and they outscored the opposition by 50 points when LeBron James was in the game.

Anthony performed somewhat better in the 2012 Olympics, though his overall numbers were skewed by his stat-padding 37 point explosion versus Nigeria during pool play. Anthony scored eight points on 3-9 field goal shooting during the gold medal game, and throughout the tournament he was often on the bench when the score was close.

In the 2016 Olympics, Anthony scored seven points on 3-7 field goal shooting in the gold medal game. He also had seven rebounds, one of which came after he was reinserted late in a blowout win so that he could set the Team USA Olympic record for career rebounds; he has not been a dominant Olympic rebounder but he holds the U.S. record for most Olympic appearances (four) and most Olympic games played (31, seven more than anyone else), so it is not surprising that he set some career records.

This recitation of facts is not meant to bash Anthony or to diminish his accomplishments and his dedication to Team USA. Here is what I wrote about Anthony after the 2016 gold medal game: "I am not a huge fan of Anthony's game and I am not surprised that he again came up small in the biggest games but I must say that I was moved by how overcome with emotion he was in the moments right after the game. It is obvious that representing his country is very important to Anthony and I commend him for that, particularly since so many players over the years have turned down that opportunity; Anthony has answered that call four times and the flaws in his game do not diminish the dedication that he has demonstrated in support of America and of USA Basketball. Each player on the team committed himself to sacrifice for the greater good; this may not have been a Dream Team but it was an American team that represented America well and it was a pleasure to watch them play the right way in the gold medal game."

All of that being said, Anthony would not have been the answer for Team USA's 2019 challenges. This version of Team USA needs "Olympic Spencer Haywood." In 1968, the 19 year old Haywood led a depleted U.S. roster to the gold medal by setting numerous Olympic and/or Team USA records. As demonstrated above, Anthony was hardly an impact Olympic player during his prime--he rode the coattails of Kobe Bryant, LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and Jason Kidd--and it is silly to expect a player who cannot crack the eight man rotation of an NBA playoff team to lead Team USA to a gold medal.

Anthony's former teammate Chauncey Billups recently provided the best explanation for why Anthony is not in the NBA now--and this also explains why Anthony would be a poor fit for Team USA: scoring 30 points in a game means too much to Anthony. Billups recalled that Anthony would be happy even after a loss if he scored 30 points, and he would not be as happy after a win if he did not score 30 points.

When your primary concern is scoring 30 points, and you can no longer score 30 points consistently or efficiently, you are no longer valuable to a basketball team. Vince Carter is playing into his 40s because he long ago accepted a reduced role not only without complaint but with enthusiasm. Anthony is wired differently; he has a right to think about himself, his game and his legacy however he wants, but teams also have a right to decide to not sign an aging, declining player who is in denial about his current capabilities.

What about Team USA? I expect Team USA to produce a mixture of flawed, unimpressive double digit wins against lesser teams and close calls against the upper echelon FIBA teams--and possibly even some close calls against lesser teams, as happened versus Turkey. In order to win the gold medal, Team USA needs to develop more chemistry/cohesion at both ends of the court, and someone needs to emerge as the go-to option down the stretch in close games. Those two tasks might sound divergent but they are not. Cohesion and chemistry keep things together for most of the game, but in a close contest you need to have a player who is so confident and so deadly that he must be double-teamed; that in turn opens up opportunities for players who are not good enough or not confident enough to create their own shots down the stretch. Against the better teams that also have skilled big men, Team USA will need at least 25 productive minutes from Turner.

Labels: 2019 Team USA, Carmelo Anthony, Donovan Mitchell, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Gregg Popovich, Jayson Tatum, Kemba Walker, Nikola Jokic, Spencer Haywood

posted by David Friedman @ 10:20 PM

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Rockets Return to Earth After Fairy Tale 2017-18 Regular Season

I thought that we would have to wait until the spring of 2019 to see the Houston Rockets fizzle. The Rockets play a high-variance style that is not conducive to championship-level success but Coach Mike D'Antoni's teams have won at least 54 games in six different seasons--though it should be noted that D'Antoni is a boom or bust coach, as he also has had five seasons when his teams missed the playoffs, plus a sixth season during which he resigned when his 18-24 New York Knicks were clearly not playoff bound with him at the helm (the Knicks improved after he departed and finished seventh in the East in 2011-12, quite a turnaround in a lockout-shortened 66 game season).

Last season, D'Antoni's Rockets topped the league with a 65-17 record and took a 3-2 lead over the Golden State Warriors in the Western Conference Finals before squandering halftime leads in games six and seven. Rockets supporters will swear up and down that their team was a Chris Paul injury away from at least advancing to the NBA Finals, if not winning the championship, while objective observers understand that the Rockets' playoff dry spells and late game collapses are very predictable. It is difficult to picture a scenario in which the Rockets as currently (or recently) constructed and coached would beat a reasonably healthy championship contender four times in a seven game playoff series.

James Harden won his long-sought regular season MVP last year. One gets the sense that Harden is  satisfied with the MVP trophy and the hundreds of millions of dollars that he will pocket from his salary plus endorsements. He came into camp this season in less than optimal condition--not the first time this has happened during his career--and he seems content to put up empty individual offensive statistics while averaging a career-high, league worst 5.8 tpg and playing defense with his now-infamous lack of enthusiasm/attention to detail. Whatever happens the rest of his career, he already has won the same number of regular season MVPs as Kobe Bryant (2008) and Shaquille O'Neal (2000), which is a sad commentary on the biases and/or ignorance of the MVP voters over the past two decades--but from Harden's perspective, he undoubtedly feels that he has validated and maximized his individual talents. Instead of being the next Manu Ginobili on an Oklahoma City team that could have annually contended for titles, he has become the 21st century Stephon Marbury, putting up gaudy individual scoring/assist numbers that have little connection with winning basketball games. When it really counts, count on Harden disappearing: with a trip to the NBA Finals on the line, he shot 6-25 (.240) from three point range in games six and seven versus Golden State. Harden shot 19-78 (.244)  from three point range during the Western Conference Finals and 52-174 (.299) on three pointers during the 2018 NBA playoffs.

It was obvious that sooner or later the Rockets would regret the mega-millions they will be paying to Chris Paul as he rapidly approaches basketball senility but I did not expect that he would grow old (or complacent) in the first year of his new deal. Paul is averaging 16.7 ppg and 7.9 apg while shooting .431 from the field for the 11-14 Rockets. That is the third lowest scoring average, second lowest assists average and second worst field goal percentage of his career. Injury-prone small point guards are unlikely to age well but don't tell that to Houston General Manager Daryl Morey, the man who believes that as a "stat guru" he enjoys a distinct analytical advantage over everyone else in the NBA. Years ago, Morey signed Shane Battier as a "stat guru"-approved Kobe Bryant-stopper. You may remember how that turned out but, in case you forgot, Bryant consistently posted great numbers against Battier as the Lakers swept Houston 4-0 in the 2009 regular season, which was a prelude to their matchup in the 2009 playoffs. Bryant dropped 32 points in game one and then blistered Battier with 40 points on 16-27 field goal shooting in game two while saying  "He Can't Guard Me" until he received a technical foul for taunting. Bryant led both teams in scoring in five of the seven games as the Lakers prevailed en route to the first of back to back titles. Battier was a smart, hard-working player but Morey's narrative about him--eagerly trumpeted by the ill-informed media corps--was ridiculous.

Morey's latest "coup" was signing Carmelo Anthony while not re-signing Trevor Ariza and Luc Mbah Moute. "Stat gurus" have never put much stock in chemistry or defense. If you cannot put a number on it, then it does not exist to them--never mind that Houston's current won-loss record is a convincing sign that something has gone drastically wrong with a team that Morey's media acolytes proclaimed would be a real threat to the Warriors. Anyone who understands basketball could see that signing Carmelo Anthony was a bad idea and getting rid of Trevor Ariza and Luc Mbah a Moute to do so was an even worse idea. Ariza may not be worth what the Phoenix Suns are paying him but if  Morey wanted to overpay to have a chance to contend it would have been much smarter to overpay Ariza than to sign an over the hill, one dimensional player whose impact on winning even during his prime was questionable and who clearly has a negative impact whenever he is on the court now.

Last season, the Rockets filled a void created when San Antonio dropped from contender status due to Kawhi Leonard's absence and Oklahoma City was hamstrung by their ill-considered addition of Carmelo Anthony (see a pattern here with Anthony?). This season, the Spurs are even worse but the Thunder look like they are for real, while several other Western teams have improved. Meanwhile, Harden is doing his thing (scoring a lot, defending very little and not having much impact on winning), Paul looks like he is 110 years old and the Rockets are a poor shooting team (ranking 23rd out of 30 teams in field goal percentage) that also defends poorly (ranking 26th in defensive field goal percentage).

Paul is supposed to be a great leader. I don't see that, and I never have. He has never won anything of significance and his teams often have chemistry problems. It is hilarious that Paul and Steve Nash--two guys who never won anything--are regularly praised as great leaders and teammates, while Kobe Bryant is criticized for not being a great leader and teammate. Pau Gasol went from being a one-time All-Star who had never won a playoff game to a future Hall of Famer with two championship rings after joining forces with Bryant. Paul and Nash never had that kind of impact on a teammate, or a team. LeBron James is another player who the media promote as a great leader and teammate, despite the mounting evidence that talented players simply do not want to be on his team (Kyrie Irving, Paul George, Kawhi Leonard, to name just three recent examples). The difference between James on one hand, and Paul/Nash on the other, is that James is so sublimely talented that he can dominate games/win championships despite some deficiencies in his mentality/leadership (he quits at times, and pouts at times, but when he is focused no one can stop him).

Paul recently said that it will be tough for a team to beat the Rockets four times in a seven game series, which is hilariously delusional considering that the Rockets have just lost seven of their previous nine regular season games. Imagine for a moment if a Kobe Bryant-led team were this dysfunctional and delusional. What would the media narrative be? Bryant won five championships and he still spent the last years of his career hearing nonsense about how he was holding the Lakers back. Has anyone noticed that the Lakers had to sign LeBron James to even come close to approaching how good they had been before Bryant got old and blew out his Achilles? Bryant had a garbage team around him at the end--much like he did circa 2005-07, with the difference being that when he was young he could turn chicken you-know-what into chicken salad but he could not work that kind of magic after his body betrayed him and Father Time caught up with him.

Will the Rockets--with two supposedly elite guards and a coach who is lauded as a visionary--really finish with a sub.-500 record? Probably not, but the Rockets have a lot of work to do just to be an average team, let alone the elite team that they delusionally believed themselves to be a few months ago.

Labels: Carmelo Anthony, Chris Paul, Daryl Morey, Houston Rockets, James Harden, Kobe Bryant, LeBron James, Mike D'Antoni

posted by David Friedman @ 2:52 AM

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