20 Second Timeout

Durant's Absence Exposes Harden's Lack of Presence

Guess which team is the (not so) proud owner of the NBA's longest current losing streak? Must be the Lakers, right? They are in the news all the time, and the news is never good. Try again. Must be the Thunder, right? I mean, they all but openly admit that they are tanking, so a team that is trying to lose must have the longest winning streak. Nope, not the Thunder. Has to be the Rockets, the worst team in the Western Conference, right? Nope. Side note: has anyone noticed that the three teams that got rid of Russell Westbrook--Thunder, Rockets, Wizards--all look like trash right now? We used to see a lot of graphics showing how bad teams become after LeBron James leaves, though the media backed off of that narrative after the Miami Heat made it to the 2020 NBA Finals. Where are the slick graphics showing the records of the Thunder, Rockets, and Wizards since Westbrook left? I heard a lot of noise about how much the Wizards "improved" during the off-season, but that chatter sure has quieted down recently; could it be that getting rid of an MVP-caliber player actually has a negative impact on winning? If that player is Russell Westbrook then the media will never tell that story, so you will have to draw your own conclusions.

Which team has the NBA's longest current losing streak?

Let me present to you, your future Eastern Conference champions (according to many "experts")--the Brooklyn Nets, featuring the man, the myth, the legend--the greatest scorer in NBA history (according to Daryl Morey): James Harden. In case you missed last night's action, the "greatest scorer in NBA history" scored four points on 2-11 field goal shooting while posting a -21 plus/minus number as the Nets lost 112-101 to the mighty 19-34 Sacramento Kings. That .182 field goal percentage is Harden's worst of the season, and it is the 20th time this season that Harden has shot worse than .400 from the field--and it is not as if when Harden shoots horribly he makes up for it by being a defensive stopper.

Kevin Durant has played 36 games this season, averaging 29.3 ppg with shooting splits of .520/.372/.894, and the Nets are 24-12 in those games. The rules changes this season that enabled perimeter defensive players to play defense had zero impact on Durant's productivity and efficiency, because he never relied on being bailed out with phantom calls.

The Nets are 5-10 without Durant, including 2-7 as he missed the last nine games. I never quite believed in the Nets as a championship contender even at full strength--I expected that even if they could ride their talent to the Eastern Conference Finals, they (specifically Harden) would fold against an elite team. Harden is miscast as a number one option on a team with championship aspirations; I am not convinced that he could be the number two option on such a team, but I am open to being shown otherwise.  

The Nets are 2-5 in Harden's last seven games. He has scored 21.3 ppg on .387 field goal shooting in those contests. Harden has a positive plus/minus number in one of those seven games (he was -8 in one of the wins), and he has a double digit negative plus/minus number in five of those games: not only are the Nets bad when Harden is the number one option, they are not even competitive when he is on the court. Interestingly, in the two recent games that Harden missed, the Nets lost by six to a good Denver team and the Nets lost by four to a Golden State team that is neck and neck with Phoenix for the best record in the league.

Harden's numbers and reputation received incredible boosts in Houston from Mike D'Antoni's gimmicky offense--an offense that has inflated the numbers of every starting point guard who has played for D'Antoni, from the sublime (Steve Nash) to the ordinary (Chris Duhon)--and the NBA's inexplicable and unjustifiable decision for several years to refuse to let perimeter defenders play defense, particularly against certain players whose reputation the league clearly wanted to burnish (Harden is foremost in that group, but he is not the only beneficiary). D'Antoni figured out how to mask Harden's weaknesses and deficiencies, and Houston's corresponding weaknesses and deficiencies, to win a lot of regular season games, but in the playoffs all of that smoke and mirrors added up to three second round losses plus one fluky Western Conference Finals berth. 

Even D'Antoni might not be able to cover for Harden now that the NBA has outlawed "flop and flail." Harden has yet to post a 40 point game this season. Forcing Harden to play by the rules has had a cascading negative impact on his productivity and efficiency. He cannot rely on just getting 15-20 free throw attempts to cover up for the nights when he shoots poorly. He cannot get open as easily because defenders are no longer afraid to guard him closely. He is more reluctant to drive to the hoop because he sees little point in crashing into defenders if he is not going to be rewarded with unearned free throws for doing so. His free throw attempts per game are not even down dramatically from his career average, because he does know--to some extent--how to legally draw fouls. The point is that Harden can no longer rely on cheap fouls, and he can no longer play on an island while defenders put their hands behind their backs (as Gregg Popovich often instructed his players to do, presumably not only to avoid fouls but to also protest against the nonsensical way that the games were being officiated). Harden's field goal percentage (.414) and three point field goal percentage (.332) this season are both career lows, because there is a huge difference between shooting contested shots and shooting uncontested shots versus terrified defenders who are in foul trouble.

Harden is averaging 10.2 apg this season--second in the league behind Chris Paul--but I submit that Harden's assists are a function of the offense, and not of his talent. Why do I say that, and how can I prove that? The Nets are averaging 25.4 apg this season, ranking eighth in the league. If Harden plays an indispensable role in that playmaking then one would expect the team's assist numbers to drop when he does not play. Harden has missed seven games this season, and the Nets are averaging 24.4 apg during those games, which suggests that his playmaking is easily replaced. The Nets' record in those games is 3-4, but that includes an 0-3 mark in games that Durant missed; the Nets are 3-1 when Harden sits but Durant plays. In other words, Harden's gaudy assist totals are fungible; when he does not play, other players get assists, and the team's totals do not change. In contrast, consider Russell Westbrook's rebounds. Westbrook is often criticized as a stat chaser, and it is implied--if not stated--that his rebounds are fungible because he is either "stealing" them from teammates, or his teammates are simply conceding rebounds to him. If that were true, then Westbrook's teams would rebound just as well without him as they do with him--but, that is demonstrably not the case: Westbrook's teams rebound worse without him than with him, which indicates that his rebounds are not fungible. That raises an interesting question, considering that Harden is averaging 8.0 rpg this season. Are Harden's rebounds fungible? The Nets are averaging 45.1 rpg this season. The Nets have averaged 47.7 rpg in the seven games that Harden missed. 

A person who watches basketball with an intelligent and unbiased eye understands that Harden is a stat padder who is not making significant contributions to team success, particularly in terms of lifting a team to championship contention--but even someone who is unwilling or unable to watch basketball with discernment can, with just a little investigation, put together evidence to demonstrate exactly what impact Harden (or any other player) has. 

It is very telling that the major media outlets that cover the NBA do not provide this kind of analysis. 

Say what you want about Kyrie Irving, but there is no question that he can perform at a high level under real basketball rules. This season he is averaging 23.6 ppg while shooting .482 from the field in 10 games. The Nets are 4-6 in those games, including 2-1 with Durant and 2-5 when Durant did not play. Irving is playing very well, but he is not good enough to make up for Harden. 

I miss watching Durant play, and I wish him a speedy and complete recovery from his knee injury, but his absence is exposing Harden--and it is also exposing Harden's many fans in the media, who are really going to be grasping at straws to make excuses for Harden if Durant does not come back soon to save the day.

Labels: Brooklyn Nets, James Harden, Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving

posted by David Friedman @ 10:17 PM

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