20 Second Timeout

Embiid-Harden Era Starts Well--But the Ending is What Matters

The Philadelphia 76ers debuted their much-hyped Joel Embiid-James Harden duo last Friday in a 133-102 rout of the Minnesota Timberwolves. Embiid finished with a game-high 34 points and a game-high 10 rebounds while shooting 10-18 from the field and 11-13 from the free throw line. Harden scored 27 points, dished for a game-high 12 assists, and grabbed eight rebounds while shooting 7-12 from the field and 8-9 from the free throw line. Before Philadelphia fans start making plans for a championship parade, keep in mind that the Timberwolves rank 22nd in the NBA points allowed and 30th (last in the league) in free throw attempts allowed.

On Sunday, the Philadelphia 76ers cruised by the New York Knicks, 125-109, in game two of the "dynamic duo" era. Embiid scored a game-high 37 points, doing most of his damage with a career-high and NBA season-high 23 free throws made. Embiid shot just 7-18 from the field, but New York's lack of defensive discipline provided him with 27 free throw attempts. Embiid claims that he has never had more open shots than he has had in his first two games playing with Harden, so it is interesting that he shot so poorly from the field--and it will be even more interesting to see Embiid play against a playoff-caliber team that knows how to defend without fouling. Harden finished with 29 points, a game-high 16 assists, and 10 rebounds. The Knicks have the 12th best record in the 15 team Eastern Conference, and they are getting worse as the season progresses: they have lost five games in a row, and they are 3-15 in their last 18 games.

There has been a lot of talk in the past few years about "advanced basketball statistics" and making data-driven decisions, but few people understand how to analyze correctly and how to discern the difference between relevant data and irrelevant data. It would be difficult to think of a better example of "empty calorie" statistics than what Embiid, Harden, and the 76ers just stacked up against Minnesota and New York. The individual and team statistics from those games have very little predictive value regarding the 76ers' playoff prospects; the individual and team statistics that are relevant are the large sample size of data regarding Embiid's health, availability, and playoff production, and the even larger sample size of data regarding Harden's unreliability and playoff production.

Winning a championship requires more than just individual and collective talent. There is no question that Embiid is one of the most talented players in the NBA, and there is no question that James Harden has All-Star level talent--but there are valid questions about Embiid's ability to be the best player on a championship team, and there are valid questions about Harden's ability to play a major role on a championship team. This has nothing to do with being a "hater" of either player, or being a fan of other players/teams; this is about objectively and correctly analyzing the relevant available data.

Embiid missed the first two seasons of his career due to injury. He has never played more than 64 games in a season, and even in the past two seasons that were shortened by COVID-19 he missed more than 20 games each season. Embiid has already missed 12 out of 60 games this season. Embiid has missed four out of his team's 38 playoff games due to injury. He will turn 28 in March, and he is an eight year veteran if you count the two missed seasons. Is it possible that a player who has only once played more than 2000 minutes in a season and who has never had a playoff run lasting longer than 11 games will become a durable workhorse who stays healthy the rest of the season and then leads Philadelphia to a championship in a playoff run lasting over 20 games? Sure, it is possible. Is it likely? The evidence does not suggest that Embiid is likely to stay healthy for such an extended period. If the 76ers play well enough to make an extended playoff run--which is far from certain, either, as discussed below--it is likely that Embiid will suffer an injury that either forces him to miss games and/or limits his effectiveness; the above numbers do not take into account how many games Embiid played when he was limited by injury, but those games when his impact was diminished due to injury are important data points to consider as well.

Assuming that Embiid stays healthy, or at least is not seriously limited by injury, what level of play is reasonable to expect from him in the playoffs? Again, this is not about his "empty calorie" regular season statistics against bad teams; we are interested in relevant data. Embiid has shot .400 or worse from the field in 14 out of his 34 playoff games. He has an 0-2 game seven record, with one good shooting performance (11-21) and one awful shooting performance (6-18). Considering Embiid's size, his basketball skills, and his athletic talents, he has been a playoff underachiever. Embiid's primary offensive attack area should be in the paint, and he should regularly be shooting significantly better than .500 from the field; that is the expectation for dominant big man scorers who lead teams to championships.

Embiid is younger than Harden, and Embiid's playoff resume is briefer. Some great players do not win their first championship until they are 28, or even older, so the above analysis is not meant to suggest that it is impossible for Embiid to lead a team to a title--but when you look at the playoff resumes of players who did not have immediate championship success before eventually winning championships--two examples are Michael Jordan and Shaquille O'Neal--those players were consistently durable, consistently productive, and consistently efficient. How many great players have missed a significant amount of games due to injury during their prime years before leading a team to at least one championship? The answer is one: Bill Walton, who suffered through several injury-riddled seasons before leading Portland to the 1977 title after a season during which he played in just 65 regular season games. He lasted just 58 games the next season, and spent most of the next several years on the shelf before playing 80 games for the 1986 Boston Celtics, capturing the Sixth Man of the Year award and winning a championship as a role player. If Joel Embiid stays healthy enough and productive enough to lead Philadelphia to a championship, he will be a statistical outlier compared to other players who have been the best player on championship teams.

Side note: Chris Paul's injury late during this season that is expected to sideline him for several weeks was predictable, because he regularly is either injured and/or worn down as the season draws to a close and the playoffs begin. When I predict individual and team success, durability is a major factor that I consider. I would hesitate to pick a team led by Joel Embiid or Chris Paul to win a championship, because I do not expect either player to be close to full strength during the NBA Finals, assuming that they can even lead their teams that far--Embiid has yet to play in the NBA Finals, and 17 season veteran Chris Paul has played in one NBA Finals.

Harden is more durable physically than Embiid, though Harden's body seems to be starting to break down; it is difficult to say for sure what Harden's physical health status is, because with Harden it is tough to separate his psychological issues from his physical issues: are the hamstring problems that he has reportedly suffered from during the past couple seasons a result of aging, lack of conditioning, or just an excuse when he preferred not to perform? Up to this point, Harden's lack of a championship mindset has been a bigger concern than his physical durability, but hard living and soft conditioning may be catching up to him.

Regardless of what happened in the past, Harden's hamstring has just made a miraculous recovery right after he sulked, whined, and pouted his way out of Brooklyn; in his last two games with Brooklyn, Harden shot a combined 8-27 from the field (.296), committed 10 turnovers, and had a -32 plus/minus number. It is worth remembering that in his last two games before sulking, whining, and pouting his way out of Houston to go to Brooklyn, Harden shot a combined 12-28 from the field (.429), committed 10 turnovers, and had a -34 plus/minus number. Harden's resume shows that when he becomes unhappy, he places his personal happiness above team goals, and he performs at a subpar level until he feels happy again. That is not a championship mindset, and just like physical durability is a trait that is unlikely to improve over time, a loser's mindset is very unlikely to evolve into a champion's mindset. Championship runs are filled with adversity; champions fight through adversity, while losers sulk, whine, and pout. 

Harden has already proven throughout his career who he is and what he is about. The evidence is available for everyone to see: the sulking, the whining, and the pouting, plus the playoff performances featuring poor shooting and high turnover numbers, especially in elimination games. It is interesting that so many people believe that he is going to magically transform himself into a champion. Is it impossible? No, it is not impossible, but that is not the point; the point is whether or not such a transformation is likely, based on the available evidence.

Since Harden sulked, whined, and pouted his way out of Oklahoma City in 2012, the player proclaimed by Daryl Morey to be the greatest scorer in pro basketball history has compiled an 8-9 record in playoff series. Harden has not reached the NBA Finals since leaving Oklahoma City, he has played in just two Conference Finals in nine years, and he has lost in the first round three times.

Overall, Harden has shot .420 or worse from the field in 15 of his 25 career playoff series, and he has shot .420 or worse from the field in 46 of his 137 career playoff games. Harden has played in four game sevens since leaving Oklahoma City; here are his field goal percentages in those games: 7-20, 12-29, 4-15, 5-17. Remarkably, his teams went 2-2 in those games despite his awful shooting--and we know that he was not making up for this by playing good defense, so this indicates that Harden had a lot of help, contradicting the notion that he had to do everything himself. If Harden had been more productive and efficient--if Harden was as good as Morey proclaims--then Harden would have already won a championship.

If Harden is effective and efficient during the 2022 playoffs then he will be breaking the performance trend that he has established throughout his NBA career. If Harden makes it through the rest of the season and the playoffs without finding some person, teammate, or situation to sulk, whine, and pout about then he will be changing the mindset that he has established and maintained throughout his career.

I am not sure yet who will win the Eastern Conference, but I would be very surprised if the Philadelphia 76ers win the Eastern Conference; it is much more likely that within the next two to three years Harden will be sulking, whining, and pouting his way out of Philadelphia, while Embiid continues to battle injuries.

Labels: Daryl Morey, James Harden, Joel Embiid, Philadelphia 76ers

posted by David Friedman @ 9:15 PM

0 comments