The Glitch in "The Process" is a Feature, not a Bug
The New York Knicks swept the Philadelphia 76ers 4-0 to reach the Eastern Conference Finals for the second consecutive season. The last time the Knicks made it to the Eastern Conference Finals two years in a row was 1999-2000, and in my Eastern Conference Finals Preview I will analyze the Knicks in depth, but this article will focus on the 76ers. Before the playoffs began, some commentators dubbed the 76ers as a "team nobody wants to face," a designation often attached to teams that subsequently lose ignominiously in the playoffs.
The 76ers have been "next year's champion" for many years. How did they become a highly touted team that annually falls well short of championship expectations? The 76ers tanked from 2013 to 2016, winning less than 20 games in each of those three seasons. Sam Hinkie, the 76ers' general manager during those awful seasons, arrogantly called the intentional losing "The Process." Author Yaron Weitzman wrote a book about "The Process" called "Tanking to the Top," but
the 76ers did nothing of the sort: two years before Hinkie began "The
Process," the 76ers lost in the second round of the 2012 playoffs--and
the 76ers have not advanced beyond the second round of the playoffs
since that time. The 76ers are the most prominent example of a proven
fact: tanking does not work.
The 76ers never reached the playoffs under Hinkie, who was finally replaced by Bryan Colangelo in 2016. Colangelo ended the tanking, and the 76ers went 28-54 in his first season before jumping to 52-30 in his second season. Colangelo resigned after that season, and he was replaced by Elton Brand. The 76ers went 51-31 and 43-30 in two years under Brand before the 76ers replaced him with Daryl Morey, who previously enjoyed an extended run in Houston despite not producing exceptional results. Like Hinkie, Morey relies heavily on "advanced basketball statistics," which results in Morey believing bizarre things such as publicly declaring that James Harden is a better scorer than Michael Jordan.
Morey doubled down on Hinkie's faith in Joel Embiid--who dubbed himself "The Process" in honor of Hinkie--by signing the oft-injured Embiid to a three year maximum contract extension in October 2024. There are 14 NBA players being paid at least $50 million this season. Only four of them have not won an NBA title, and two of those four play for the 76ers. Joel Embiid is the NBA's third highest paid player ($55.2 million), and Paul George is the NBA's 13th highest paid player ($51.67 million). Morey's decisions have resulted in the 76ers paying over $100 million this season to two players who have failed to lead the team past the second round. One of the few positive things that can be said about Morey's reign of error in Philadelphia is that he drafted Tyrese Maxey in 2020. Maxey has become the 76ers' best and most consistent player, but it is not clear if Maxey can be the number one option on a team that makes an extended playoff run.
It is fascinating to contrast the dysfunctional 76ers with the Oklahoma City Thunder, the reigning NBA champions and the league's model franchise. I previously discussed in brief how the Thunder built their roster through wise personnel moves and not by tanking (even though it is true that they tanked for a couple seasons), but with the Thunder rolling while the 76ers are reeling it is worth examining in detail how the Thunder put together their deep roster.
Here is how the Thunder acquired their top nine players in regular season mpg from their 2025 championship season:
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander--the NBA's reigning regular season MVP, Magic Johnson Western Conference Finals MVP, and Bill Russell NBA Finals MVP--is the Thunder's franchise player. The Thunder obtained Gilgeous-Alexander and the draft pick that became All-Star Jalen Williams (their second best player) by trading Paul George to the L.A. Clippers. Morey's 76ers later signed Paul George after the Clippers wisely decided to not give George a maximum contract extension.
The Thunder used a first round draft pick obtained by tanking to select Chet Holmgren.
Lu Dort was not drafted, Isaiah Hartenstein was a free agent, Cason Wallace was acquired in a trade, Aaron Wiggins was a second round draft pick, Isaiah Joe was a free agent who had been waived by the 76ers, and Alex Caruso was acquired in a trade that sent Josh Giddey from the Thunder to the Chicago Bulls. The Thunder had selected Giddey with a first round pick obtained by tanking, but after they determined that Giddey was not the best fit with the rest of their roster they shrewdly shipped him out to obtain a proven championship-winning veteran who is a great leader and great defensive player.
Thunder general manager Sam Presti cut his NBA teeth with the San Antonio Spurs before the Thunder hired him. Knicks coach Mike Brown is also a product of the Spurs' system. I interviewed Brown during his first stint with the Cleveland Cavaliers, and he told me that he takes after his mentor Gregg Popovich in terms of not being a big numbers guy. When I asked Brown what statistics he values, he mentioned defensive field goal percentage and points allowed but not any of the "advanced basketball statistics" that are so in vogue in some quarters and that are so heavily valued by people like Hinkie and Morey. During their 2025 championship season, the Thunder ranked first in defensive field goal percentage and third in points allowed; they ranked first and second respectively in those categories this season.
Numbers matter, but anyone who thinks that the numbers point to tanking as an effective strategy does not understand numbers, basketball, strategy, or team building. It is not an accident that the Thunder are winning while the 76ers are sputtering; those disparate outcomes result from one team consistently making sound strategic decisions and the other team consistently making unsound strategic decisions. It is quite telling that the Thunder began their current rise by getting rid of Paul George, a player who Morey's 76ers acquired (and then overpaid) because they believe that he can be a cornerstone player on a championship team.
Labels: Chet Holmgren, Daryl Morey, Jalen Williams, Joel Embiid, New York Knicks, Oklahoma City Thunder, Paul George, Philadelphia 76ers, Sam Hinkie, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Tyrese Maxey
posted by David Friedman @ 10:59 PM
NBA Suspends Joel Embiid For Three Games
In Joel Embiid, Marcus Hayes, and How to Deal with Irresponsible Media Members, I discussed the locker room incident during which Philadelphia 76ers center Joel Embiid threatened and then pushed Philadelphia Inquirer columnist Marcus Hayes, and I stated that unless Commissioner Adam Silver "fancies the idea of NBA players teeing off on every media member who
they dislike he must suspend Embiid without pay for multiple games."
Today, the NBA suspended Embiid for three games. NBA Executive Vice President Joe Dumars explained, "Mutual respect is paramount to the relationship between players and
media in the NBA. While we understand Joel was offended
by the personal nature of the original version of the reporter’s column,
interactions must remain professional on both sides and can never turn
physical." This is the second time in two weeks that the NBA has taken disciplinary action against the 76ers; last week, the
NBA fined the 76ers $100,000 for making public statements about
Embiid's health that were inconsistent and that violated league rules.
Embiid missed the first six games of this season due to injury and the Philadelphia 76ers have not indicated when he will be cleared to play, so the suspension will go into effect after Embiid is added to the active roster.
Daryl Morey was not an awful general manager in Houston, but an objective analysis of his record proves that he was not great, either. He took the reins in Philadelphia's front office in 2020, and during his tenure the 76ers lost in the second round for three straight years before falling in the first round last season. This season, the 76ers are 1-5 and Embiid has been suspended for more games than he has played. Throughout his career, Morey and his supporters have asserted that his use of "advanced basketball statistics" provides him a tangible advantage over his competitors; the reality is that the objective numbers--wins, losses, championships--prove that Morey has demonstrated no such advantage.
Labels: Daryl Morey, Joel Embiid, Marcus Hayes, Philadelphia 76ers
posted by David Friedman @ 11:52 PM
Is "Playoff P" the Answer for Philadelphia's Postseason Woes?
Paul George expected the L.A. Clippers to give him the same contract terms that Kawhi Leonard earned, and after the Clippers declined to do so George signed a maximum contract with the 76ers that will pay George $212 million over the next four seasons. Leonard won two NBA Finals MVPs while leading two different teams to NBA championships (2014 San Antonio Spurs, 2019 Toronto Raptors), but George has never reached the NBA Finals, owns an 8-11 career playoff series record, and has a .423 career playoff field goal percentage, so George is the only person surprised that the Clippers do not value him as highly as they value Leonard.
George is a 34 year old shooting guard who has played in more than 60 regular season games just once since 2019; granted, his most durable season during that time frame was last season (74 games), but is it reasonable to assume that an injury-prone player is going to become less injury-prone in his mid to late 30s? The 76ers are wagering more than $200 million that between the ages of 34 and 38 George will be healthier than ever and that he will be more efficient in the playoffs than ever. George dubbed himself "Playoff P," but that is a self-proclaimed belief as opposed to a performance-based tribute. James Harden's 2024 playoff disappearing act with the Clippers should not obscure the reality that "Playoff P" also came up short as the Clippers lost 4-2 in the first round to the Dallas Mavericks, culminating in horrific shooting performances in game five (4-13, .308) and game six (6-18, .333).
The 76ers are desperate to provide more help for Joel Embiid, their injury-prone star who received the 2023 regular season MVP award but has yet to play in more than 68 games in a regular season or lead his squad past the second round of the playoffs. Embiid's regular season career field goal percentage is .504, but his playoff career field goal percentage is just .459. He shot better than .490 from the field once in his seven postseason appearances. Embiid's resume indicates that he is not healthy enough, consistent enough, or dominant enough to lead a team on a long playoff run.
On paper, the George acquisition improves the 76ers by adding defensive versatility, playmaking, and perimeter scoring, but the reality will likely turn out to be that when the chips are down Embiid and George will be injured, inefficient, or both. The 76ers will have to reply heavily on Tyrese Maxey, who averaged 29.8 ppg on .478 field goal shooting in the 2024 playoffs, to save the day for Embiid and George.
The 76ers have demonstrably not "tanked to the top"--unless you believe that the second round of the playoffs is "the top," because that is the farthest that the 76ers have advanced in the playoffs since beginning the infamous "Process" 11 years ago during Sam Hinkie's reign of error. Daryl Morey became the 76ers' president of basketball operations in 2020, and he has yet to succeed where his protege Hinkie failed--and that is not surprising, because Morey's resume as an NBA executive is pedestrian despite the fact that he has been granted nearly two decades to test out his beliefs about "advanced basketball statistics." Morey ranked James Harden as a greater scorer than Michael Jordan and he never retracted that nonsensical take even after Harden's "concert tour" playoff field goal percentages and Harden's numerous playoff failures, culminating in Harden publicly blasting Morey as a liar and demanding to be traded--a demand that Morey granted without ever criticizing Harden; we all want someone to love us as much as Morey loves Harden.
The fact that Morey is betting over $200 million that George can help the 76ers win a championship is an excellent reason to believe that the 76ers will once again fall short of reaching the NBA Finals, as has been the case with every Morey-led team during his tenure running NBA franchises first in Houston and now in Philadelphia.
Labels: Daryl Morey, Joel Embiid, L.A. Clippers, Paul George, Philadelphia 76ers, Sam Hinkie, Tyrese Maxey
posted by David Friedman @ 12:23 PM
Sixers End Failed Harden Experiment While Clippers Hope That Harden Will be A Happy Camper
The James Harden concert tour is heading west: the Philadelphia 76ers shipped James Harden to the L.A. Clippers in exchange for Nicholas Batum, Robert Covington, Kenyon Martin Jr., Marcus Morris Sr., and several draft picks. The Clippers also received P.J. Tucker and Filip Petrusev from the 76ers. No offense to the players acquired by the 76ers, but it is fascinating that 2018 regular season MVP Harden--who was also selected to the NBA's 75th Anniversary Team--has been traded for players who have never made the All-Star team even once and are unlikely to make the All-Star team in the future.
Daryl Morey ranked James Harden ahead of Michael Jordan as a scorer when Harden played for Morey's Houston Rockets, and Morey could not contain his joy when a disgruntled Harden forced his way out of Brooklyn to Philadelphia, where Morey is now the President of Basketball Operations; after Morey swooped in and traded Ben Simmons to Brooklyn for Harden less than two years ago, I concluded my analysis of that trade by stating, "It will be amusing watching Harden's inevitable playoff collapse ensure that the 76ers are not rewarded for trying to 'tank to the top.'" That prediction proved to be 100% correct. In 23 playoff games with the 76ers, Harden averaged 19.4 ppg on .399
field goal shooting as the 76ers lost in the second round in 2022 and
2023.
In Harden's final playoff game with the 76ers he added yet another entry to his horrific elimination game resume, scoring nine points on 3-11 field goal shooting while committing five turnovers as the Boston Celtics routed the 76ers, 112-88. That kind of performance--featuring more turnovers committed than field goals made--should be defined as a "Harden," because it is Harden's specialty: Harden pulled off a "Harden" in three of his seven 2023 playoff games versus the Celtics, and during a six game stretch in the 2023 playoffs Harden had 32 field goals made and 30 turnovers committed, narrowly missing averaging a "Harden" for the equivalent of an entire playoff series.
Morey remains an unrepentant Harden fan. ESPN's Ramona Shelburne recently quoted Morey's current take on Harden's legacy: "James changed my life. He's one of the all-time greats. As time goes on, people will think
about him in much more historic terms. What he did to change the game
and change the NBA will get recognized more as the Twitterverse and the
people who don't understand how good he is fade away."
Morey has it backwards (as he often does): anyone who critiqued Harden and Morey for not understanding what it takes to win a championship will only gain credibility over time, while many of the highly paid commentators of recent years will eventually be relegated to much-deserved obscurity. The notion that Harden was ever as good as Jordan is demonstrably absurd and will not stand the test of time, but an analytical examination of the flaws in Harden's game (and the flaws in Morey's "advanced basketball statistics") is timeless basketball wisdom.
The funny thing about this trade is that Morey won in spite of himself. Whatever he did that resulted in Harden repeatedly calling him out publicly as a liar forced the 76ers to get rid of one of the worst playoff chokers of all-time, so the 76ers are better now than they were the past two seasons with Harden--though that may change depending on who Morey swoons over next, and how he decides to spend the draft picks that he has acquired.
Meanwhile, it is difficult to understand why the Clippers treasure the trash that has been dumped in the past four years by Houston, Brooklyn, and Philadelphia. Even after Wednesday's come from ahead overtime loss to the L.A. Lakers, the Clippers started the season 3-2 without Harden. ESPN's insightful analyst Tim Legler declared that the Harden trade does not change his evaluation of the Clippers at all because the Clippers had enough talent to be a contender even without Harden. Legler stated that the Clippers' fate depends primarily on whether or not Kawhi Leonard is healthy during the playoffs. Legler is right in the sense that Leonard is the Clippers' main star, but I would argue that the Harden trade is not just a lateral move in terms of the Clippers' championship hopes: Harden is a proven malcontent with a long track record of playoff choking, so the combination of Harden's inevitable bad attitude with his inevitable postseason disappearing act will likely harm the Clippers.
Labels: Daryl Morey, James Harden, L.A. Clippers, Philadelphia 76ers
posted by David Friedman @ 9:40 PM
James Harden is as Good at Burning Bridges as He is at Bricking Playoff Three Pointers
I already wrote about James Harden's hubris and lack of loyalty, and I did not plan to write about Harden again unless/until the Philadelphia 76ers traded him or it was time to do my 2023-24 season preview articles. However, Harden pushed his way back into the headlines by declaring, "Daryl Morey is a liar and I will never be a part of an organization that
he's a part of. Let
me say that again: Daryl Morey is a liar and I will never be a part of
an organization that he's a part of." Harden declined to specify what he believes that Morey lied about, so Harden's claim cannot be assessed on its merits.
However, we learned that Morey is either a liar or delusional when he ranked Harden ahead of Michael Jordan as a scorer. In 2019, Chris Paul claimed that Morey lied to him with assurances that he would not be traded just days before Morey traded him to the Oklahoma City Thunder. So, even though there is no public evidence that Morey lied to Harden it would not be shocking if Morey lied to Harden--and it would also not be shocking if Harden is lying, because Harden has a track record of burning any bridges that need to be burned to assure his hasty departure from teams for which he no longer wishes to play, and it is reasonable to believe that a person who will cheat the game by reporting to camp out of shape and not playing hard is a person who would lie to get his way.
Instead of leaving it to media members to speculate about why Harden blasted the man who is most responsible for Harden receiving generational wealth to flop and flail, NBA Commissioner Adam Silver or one of his deputies should ask Harden to specify what exactly Morey allegedly lied about. If Morey merely told Harden that he would trade him and then was unwilling or unable to trade him, there is nothing for the league office to be concerned about--but if Morey told Harden that if Harden took a pay cut (as Harden did) then he would be rewarded with a huge contract extension that is a violation of the NBA's Collective Bargaining Agreement, which has strict rules against making promises that would enable teams to keep a player for a cap-friendly deal and make up the difference later when that team's payroll does not exceed the salary cap.
The publicly known facts are that in the summer of 2022 Harden did not utilize his player option for a $47.4 million contract for the 2022-23 season and he instead signed for $33 million plus a $35.6 million option for 2023-24; this summer, Harden exercised the $35.6 million option and then immediately demanded that the 76ers trade him.
It is obvious that something does not add up here. If Harden believed that his market value is high then he would have declined his 2023-24 option and become a free agent, confident that his desired team would outbid the 76ers for his services; of course, Harden's pathetic elimination game resume--to which he added yet another awful stat line in 2023 (nine points, five turnovers, 3-11 field goal shooting in a game seven loss to Boston)--is just one of many reasons that no one is lining up for the "privilege" of paying Harden $40 million or more for the upcoming season only to see Harden pull off his annual playoff disappearing act. The most logical reason for Harden to turn down $47.4 million, take much less money, demand a trade, and criticize his greatest benefactor is if Harden believes that Morey promised to give him a huge, multi-year contract extension this summer; if Harden expected that to happen and Morey (or the 76ers' owners) said no, then it would make sense--at least from Harden's warped perspective of entitlement--that Harden would grab all of the money that he could (his player option) and angrily ask to be traded.
The larger point here is that--to use a politically incorrect phrase that is nevertheless apt--the inmates are running the asylum, which the great Julius Erving said recently when he explained why he left several of the best modern players off of his all-time greatest players list. The way that the system is supposed to work--in society as a whole, and in the NBA in particular--is that after two parties sign a contract both parties honor that contract. You may share my distaste for how LeBron James left Cleveland in 2010, but LeBron James waited until his contract expired and then he had every legal right to seek employment with a different team--but what James Harden, Damian Lillard, Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving, Anthony Davis, and other big name players have done in recent years is sign big money contracts and then not only demand a trade but also arrogantly assume that they have the right to pick where they are traded, in blatant violation of the terms of their contract.
We may never find out if Morey lied to Harden, but if Morey lied to Harden with promises of a big money deal then Harden would have to admit to breaking salary cap rules to prove that Morey lied. Harden may not have thought all of this through before he opened his bearded mouth and attacked his biggest fan, or Harden may just believe that if he makes the situation toxic enough then he will get his way, an approach that worked for him on his way out of first Houston and then Brooklyn.
Harden could have avoided all of this by declining his option and offering his services on the open market. The reason that Harden did not do that is the same reason that Lillard squeezed every penny out of the Portland Trail Blazers before demanding that the team trade him to Miami: both players know that they are not worth nearly as much on the open market as they would like to be paid.
Harden and Lillard appear to believe that they can get away with not showing up for work until they are traded to their respective desired destinations, but any player who does not show up for training camp or who shows up for training camp looking like he is wearing a fat suit in preparation for portraying Professor Klump in "The Nutty Professor" should be suspended without pay. If I were Morey, I would tell Coach Nick Nurse to have Harden run laps for every missed shot and turnover in game seven versus Boston, and if Harden balked I would have him escorted out of the practice facility sans paycheck. The 76ers suspended Ben Simmons in a similar circumstance before trading him for Harden, but Harden has more power than Simmons so Philadelphia fans should brace themselves for a few games of "fat Harden" before the crisis reaches a boiling point and Morey ships Harden out. Maybe Morey will channel Michael Jordan and "take personally" Harden's public verbal assault on his character. Harden clearly thinks that he has all of the leverage, but maybe he has overplayed his hand and will be forced to "settle" for being paid over $35 million to play for Philadelphia next season.
I was a big 76ers fan as a kid, before I realized that I was more of a Julius Erving fan than a 76ers fan; after Erving retired, my attachment to the team faded, and then completely disappeared after Sam Hinkie attempted to "Tank to the Top" (an unfortunate book title which does not at all describe what happened). Reigning regular season MVP Joel Embiid is all that remains from Hinkie's infamous "Process," and it would be fascinating to hear Embiid's honest opinions about Harden and Morey. Of course, the oft-injured and never in top condition Embiid should perhaps lead a team past the second round of the playoffs before he points fingers at others.
It would be a fitting conclusion to the misguided "Process" if Embiid, Harden, and Morey all end up with teams other than the 76ers. I predicted that the 76ers would not win anything of consequence until they purged every remnant of Hinkie's reign of error, and I have not wavered an inch from that stance: franchises that spend seasons losing on purpose will not morph into champions because that is not how a championship culture is built.
Labels: Daryl Morey, James Harden, Joel Embiid, Philadelphia 76ers, Sam Hinkie, tanking
posted by David Friedman @ 12:30 AM
Harden’s Hubris, Lillard’s Situational Loyalty, and ESPN Abandons Even the Pretense of Providing Substantive Commentary
NBA free agency 2023 has just begun, but there has already been a flurry of activity. Three stories in particular caught my eye so far, and none of the stories relates to a player who has changed teams (at least up to this point): James Harden once again demanded to be traded after doing little to improve his current team, Damian Lillard asked to be traded after spending his whole career bragging about how loyal he is to Portland, and ESPN got rid of several credible commentators while retaining the services of "Screamin' A" Smith and other no-nothing blowhards.
Harden has never pretended to be loyal, nor has he ever shown self-awareness about his basketball abilities. Harden lusted after the money and accolades of a number one option without ever having the ideal mentality or game to be a number one option on a legit championship contender; instead of staying with the Oklahoma City Thunder to be the third option in an organically constructed "Big Three" with Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook, Harden fled to Houston seeking money and individual glory. Harden's sorry elimination game resume--to which Harden added yet another awful stat line in 2023 (nine points, five turnovers, 3-11 field goal shooting in a game seven loss to Boston)--speaks for itself.
As Harden's career winds down, he is shamelessly jumping from team to team trying in vain to be what he should have been all along--the third option on a championship contender; he quit on the Rockets to force his way to Brooklyn (and reunite with Durant, who won two rings without Harden), then he whined his way out of Brooklyn to reunite with his biggest fan (Daryl Morey, who called Harden a better offensive player than Michael Jordan) in Philadelphia, and now Harden has exercised his $35.6 million player option for 2023-24 before making it clear that he prefers to hitch his wagon to Kawhi Leonard and Paul George of the L.A. Clippers, presumably believing that this duo has enough talent to overcome his perpetual playoff choking and deliver him a championship ring.
It will be fascinating to see how Morey handles this situation. Morey has devoted his career to slavishly admiring Harden, but Morey is known as a tough negotiator who is comfortable being uncomfortable: will Morey stand firm to get the best possible return for the 76ers (which is, after all, the job Morey is being paid to do), or will he cave in and lovingly send Harden to Harden's preferred destination regardless of what the Clippers offer in return? It will also be interesting to see when/if the 76ers' ownership group becomes fed up with being led by the nose by a series of "stat gurus" (first Sam Hinkie, now Daryl Morey) whose devotion to "advanced basketball statistics" has yet to lift the 76ers past the second round of the playoffs.
While Harden is a basketball mercenary/pirate seeking personal glory with little regard to the carnage he leaves behind with each of his former teams, Lillard's brand is built in no small part on his character and loyalty. Just a few months ago, I wrote about Lillard's Loyalty; my analysis of his skills was on point, but my praise for his loyalty was premature. This is not about Lillard's right to seek employment elsewhere, because I am not questioning that; my point is that no one forced Lillard to write an article titled "Loyalty Over Everything" in which he almost broke his arm patting himself on the back for his character, toughness, and loyalty:
I'm
saying, you think you know how deep this goes, but you have no idea.
When I say that I will never, ever switch up on the city of Portland, I
mean what I say. When I say that I will never, ever switch up on this
organization, I mean what I say.
They
might switch up on me. That's business. That's basketball. But I will
never switch up on the city. I don't want it easy. I'm drawn to the
struggle. When I came here, we hadn't won a playoff series since 2000.
You had so many injuries to franchise guys like Brandon Roy and Greg
Oden over the years, and it's so tough to come back from that. Even
going way back, you had All-Stars like Clyde Drexler and Bill Walton who
didn't choose to end their careers as a Blazer.
Well, I'm going to be that. I'm going to carry that. I'm going to bring a ring to this city or go down swinging...
I ain't turning my back on the city, because the city has been riding with me since Day One.
I'm
not for the fake or the pretend. Too much of that going around these
days. I'm for the authentic. It's the same as it was when we were
sleeping four-to-a-motel-room with the Rebels. I'm trying to win with my
people. Everything I ever experienced, every chapter of it, the good
and the bad and the grimy, that's what made me.
At best, the above paragraphs now sound corny and contrived; at worst, Lillard looks like a liar, or at least like someone who lacks the inner strength to stay true to his expressed core beliefs. Don't tell us "I'm going to bring a ring to this city or go down swinging" and then beg to be traded to Miami to hook up with a team that has reached the NBA Finals twice in the past four seasons without you. Going to the Heat is the opposite of being "drawn to the struggle"; it is hitching your wagon to Jimmy Butler's star, and hoping to ride all the way to a championship.
Lillard's trade request makes one reevaluate his whole career, because it is just not clear what he wants or what he ever wanted. It has always been evident to any informed observer that Lillard is not good enough to be the best player on a legitimate championship contender (every time I hear someone compare Lillard or Chris Paul to Isiah Thomas I feel physically ill, because Thomas--in marked contrast to Lillard and Paul--joined a lousy NBA team, stayed with that team his whole career, and won two titles while facing Bird, Magic, and Jordan in their primes). Thus, if Lillard's main goal is to win a title then he should have been taking less money throughout his career so that the Trail Blazers could sign a player who is qualified to be a legit number one option for a championship contender. If Lillard's main goal is to make as much money as possible, then there is nothing wrong with him signing max deals even though that did not leave enough money available to build a legit championship contender--and there is no reason for him to leave Portland, because Portland can pay him more than any other team. More to the point, if Lillard is really the ride or die type of guy that he has always portrayed himself to be then he should never have asked for a trade.
It is not clear what changed to induce Lillard to renounce a central aspect of his public identity; it is not a newsflash that the Trail Blazers have not provided the superstar and role players that Lillard would need to seriously contend for a title--and Lillard never publicly complained about that--so it is odd that all of a sudden Lillard changed his tune and decided to join the team-hopping brigade, which includes LeBron James, Kevin Durant, Kawhi Leonard, Harden, and Kyrie Irving. At least James, Durant, and Leonard can plausibly argue that they bring championship contention with them in their suitcases; Harden, Irving, and now Lillard show up asking (metaphorically) "Who is going to carry me to the mountaintop?"
It is also not clear what the Heat are thinking if it is true that they are eager to acquire Lillard. The Denver Nuggets bludgeoned the Heat in the paint at both ends of the court in the 2023 NBA Finals, so adding the undersized Lillard and his infamous logo shots to the mix in no way positions the Heat to beat the Nuggets in a playoff series, nor does it position the Heat to beat a full strength Milwaukee team (or any other elite team that uses its size effectively). Lillard could help the Heat's inconsistent offense, but that is not enough to win a title.
Shifting focus to the people who cover the NBA, it is disappointing--but, sadly, not surprising--that ESPN let go several outstanding commentators, including Jeff Van Gundy and Jalen Rose (plus Steve Young, perhaps the network's most insightful NFL analyst). ESPN's NBA analysis is now reduced to Tim Legler--who is outstanding--and a few games per season during which the legendary Hubie Brown provides color commentary. Other than Legler and Brown, when one watches ESPN's NBA coverage one can abandon all hope of hearing intelligent commentary (Mark Jackson is solid, but why isn't more made of the fact that he left Nikola Jokic off of his 2023 regular season MVP ballot?).
Rose was one of the few ESPN commentators who would contradict nonsense even if it was spouted by another ESPN commentator. Rose used the phrase "concert tour" to describe James Harden's ridiculously poor playoff field goal percentages (Harden's numbers look like spring or summer concert tour dates, such as 5-13); that turn of phrase--both funny and insightful--is typical of the perspective that Rose provided. He was the entertaining and intelligent commentator that "Screamin' A" believes himself to be.
Van Gundy had a little Bill Walton in him in terms of going off on whimsical tangents, but Van Gundy consistently provided an elite coach’s insight about basketball. He often declared, "Horses trot, players run"--in reference to so-called superstars who jog up and down the court--and during the height of Kobe Bryant's career his voice provided a lonely but welcome counterpoint to the nonsense spewed by the likes of Bill Simmons, Mike Wilbon, and other nationally prominent commentators who constantly made unfair and unwarranted criticisms of how Bryant played. Van Gundy did not buy into the nonsense that other ESPN commentators spew about in game adjustments. Van Gundy consistently stated that playoff series are not decided by in game adjustments because "You are who you are by this time of the year and you have to go with
your best stuff and expect them to go with their best stuff." It is amazing that Mike Wilbon and Brian Windhorst have been with ESPN for so long yet apparently are incapable of grasping this piece of wisdom dispensed by a colleague who, unlike either of them, coached a team to the NBA Finals.
No one gets everything right in terms of predictions or skill set analysis, but the best commentators view the game in a way that consistently enables them to provide insights that elude many media members and "stat gurus." Hopefully, TNT or NBA TV will pick up the ball dropped by ESPN, and hire Rose and Van Gundy.
Labels: Damian Lillard, Daryl Morey, ESPN, Hubie Brown, Jalen Rose, James Harden, Jeff Van Gundy, Philadelphia 76ers, Portland Trail Blazers
posted by David Friedman @ 11:09 AM
Jayson Tatum Scores Game Seven Record 51 Points as Celtics Roll Over Listless 76ers, 112-88
Jayson Tatum, much criticized for his slow starts and inconsistent performances in Boston's second round series versus Philadelphia, used his closing spurt in game six as a springboard to an epic 51 point outburst in game seven, leading the Celtics to a 112-88 rout of the 76ers while breaking Stephen Curry's 50 point game seven record set 13 days ago. Tatum shot 17-28 from the field (including 6-10 from three point range) while grabbing a game-high 13 rebounds and passing for a team-high five assists. He showed off his well developed, all-around offensive game, scoring from all three levels while committing no turnovers in 41 minutes. Tatum also played excellent defense. He put on a master class of how a superstar plays elite level basketball in a win or go home game. The mentoring that Tatum received from Kobe Bryant was very evident during this performance. It is pathetic that when Tatum revealed years ago that he sought guidance from Bryant some "stat gurus" asserted that Bryant would ruin Tatum's game by teaching him the supposedly outdated midrange game instead of the three point shot/free throw game preferred by "stat gurus."
Jaylen Brown also played very well, finishing with 25 points, six rebounds, two assists, two steals, and two blocked shots. At the 8:26 mark of the second quarter, James Harden received a flagrant foul after elbowing Brown in the face hard enough to draw blood but--amazingly--Brown did not need a wheelchair and he was able to keep playing. Brown made both free throws, and the Celtics closed the second quarter with a 28-17 run to take a 55-52 halftime lead.
In the third quarter, Tatum outscored the 76ers 17-10, the other Celtics scored 16 points, and it was a wrap heading into the fourth quarter with the Celtics leading 88-62. Anonymous sideline sources texted me and stated that James Harden led a "1, 2, 3 Cancun" chant during a huddle but I have not been able to confirm that with "Woj" (sorry, but I couldn't resist trying to break news like "Woj," Chris Haynes, and Dave "Vampire" McMenamin).
Two players who did not excel during this game are the 2023 NBA regular season MVP Joel Embiid, and James Harden, the player who Daryl Morey ranks as a greater scorer than Michael Jordan. Embiid scored 15 points on 5-18 field goal shooting. He had eight rebounds, two assists, and four turnovers, almost accomplishing a "Harden" (a new statistical category comprised of a playoff game during which a player has more turnovers than field goals made). Anonymous sources texted me and said that two-time regular season MVP Nikola Jokic has filed theft charges and requested that the authorities retrieve his stolen 2023 MVP trophy from Embiid (sorry, but I just cannot resist trying out my "breaking news" chops).
Harden's 2023 concert tour concluded with a 3-11 grand finale, and a "Harden" as he finished with more turnovers (five) than field goals made. Even when the 76ers were ahead of Brooklyn 2-0 in the first round, I noted that a statistic to watch this postseason will be Harden's turnover/field goals made ratio, pointing out that in Harden's previous six playoff games he had made 32 field
goals while committing 30 turnovers. Yes, a player who was selected to
the NBA's 75th Anniversary Team
and was paid $33 million this season regularly struggles to amass more
field goals made than turnovers in the games that matter most. Harden's nine total points and his second half disappearing act (three points, 1-3 field goal shooting, two turnovers after his team trailed by just three points at intermission) are exactly what should be expected from him based on what he has delivered throughout his playoff career, particularly in elimination games.
Tobias Harris led the 76ers with 19 points, and Tyrese Maxey added 17 points, but that was not nearly enough to make up for how poorly Embiid and Harden played. I was baffled to listen to the usually sensible Greg Anthony and Sam Mitchell make excuses for Embiid and Harden by asserting that they do not have enough help. If Embiid and Harden put up 70-80 combined points on efficient shooting and the 76ers lost then perhaps that argument would hold water, but after this game no one should say anything about the supporting cast.
The 76ers' stars failed--period, point blank, end of discussion.
It should be an interesting offseason for the 76ers. Last year after "experts" praised the Embiid-Harden duo, I wrote, "I am not sure yet who will win the Eastern Conference, but I would be
very surprised if the Philadelphia 76ers win the Eastern Conference; it
is much more likely that within the next two to three years Harden will
be sulking, whining, and pouting his way out of Philadelphia, while
Embiid continues to battle injuries." It is unfortunate that Coach Doc Rivers, the only key member of the 76ers who has won a championship, may take the fall for Morey's foolishness and the disappearing acts of Embiid and Harden. Other than begging his players to play harder--a recurring theme during Rivers' tenure with the 76ers--what magical "adjustment" is Rivers supposed to make? The "experts" love talking about adjustments, but those who understand basketball know that so-called adjustments are overrated.
After the game, Embiid said, "Me and James can't win alone." Really? That is the league MVP's assessment after a game seven during which he and Harden combined to score 24 points on 8-29 field goal shooting with nine turnovers, the treasured combo "Harden" with more turnovers than field goals made. Anyone who compared the Embiid-Harden duo to Moses Malone-Julius Erving or any other all-time great duo should have his press credential revoked and his sanity evaluated.
The book Five Star Basketball includes some of the best lectures given at the legendary basketball camp, and is a must-read for players who want to improve and for fans who want to better understand the game; instead of listening to "Screamin' A," Wilbon and the other talking heads/screaming heads who do not understand basketball, turn off the pregame/postgame shows (except for TNT's shows, of course) and read this book. One of the lectures is by Hubie Brown. Brown declared, "Don't tell me how hard you've got it. I want to know what you got. I showed you six different things today to give you something with the pressure on. Can you score in the lane? Do you understand that taking the hook from your hip instead of from your chest keeps you from getting it blocked? Do you understand the pin when a guy fronts you in the post? Do you understand how to attack the trap?"
Joel Embiid and James Harden showed us what they have, and it is evident that they do not have the all-around games needed to lead a team to victory in the second round of the playoffs. The Celtics crowded Embiid and Harden, and neither player had countermoves beyond overdribbling, turning the ball over, or making long, loping crosscourt passes that did not threaten the defense.
This is yet another chapter in Daryl Morey's amazing career that consists of maintaining employment as a top basketball executive for a decade and a half despite not accomplishing anything particularly special.
Before the Celtics won game seven, at least one Philadelphia writer suggested that a 76ers loss could lead to the Process 2.0. Anyone who received a check for the book "Tanking to the Top" should refund all proceeds on the basis of profiting based on false pretenses. The current version of the 76ers has not reached the top, and if they ever do it will not be from tanking because tanking does not work. It is reasonable to assert that the 76ers need to make changes, but maybe they should learn from the fiascos of the past decade and try to build a good foundation instead of ripping everything apart to lose intentionally.
The 76ers are difficult to ignore because of the outlandish stupidity of how the team was built via tanking and then believing that the Embiid-Harden duo would be great in the playoffs, but the Celtics deserve praise for staying the course through the ups and downs not just of this series but of the past several years. They have now reached the Eastern Conference Finals five times in the past seven seasons. Anyone trying to understand the distinction between a fluky Conference Finals appearance (hello Houston's James Harden, Atlanta's Trae Young, and Portland's Damian Lillard) versus sustained and sustainable excellence should just watch some game tapes of the Tatum-Brown Celtics to become educated. Rookie Coach Joe Mazzulla, the youngest coach in the NBA, is not perfect--no one is perfect--but he replaced the disgraced Ime Udoka on short notice and he has done an excellent job overall of leading this team to the NBA's version of the Final Four.
Labels: Boston Celtics, Daryl Morey, James Harden, Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, Joel Embiid, Philadelphia 76ers
posted by David Friedman @ 9:24 PM
Butler Did It: Heat Dominate 76ers, Advance to the Eastern Conference Finals
The Butler did it, while Joel Embiid and James Harden watched. Full credit to the winners first, and then we will turn our attention to the losers. Jimmy Butler did not have a great first half, but he did not quit, and he dominated in the second half to finish with a game-high 32 points plus eight rebounds and four assists. Max Strus scored 20 points, grabbed a team-high 11 rebounds, and dished for five assists. P.J. Tucker scored 12 points and it seemed like he grabbed every loose ball (he ended up with nine rebounds, including four offensive rebounds). Bam Adebayo and Tyler Herro chipped in 10 points each. The Heat were without the services of injured All-Star point guard Kyle Lowry, but they did not whine and they did not make excuses; the Heat went into what is supposed to be a hostile environment facing a player who talks about being the MVP and a player who has previously been named the MVP, and the Heat dismantled the 76ers, 99-90. The game was not nearly as close or competitive as that score may suggest, because by midway through the third quarter everyone in the building knew that the 76ers had no chance: the Philadelphia fans booed, and then many of them went home before the final buzzer.
I remember when I first started covering the NBA in person, and I watched a little known assistant coach named Erik Spoelstra working out before games with a young Dwyane Wade. Pat Riley built Heat culture first as a coach and then as a front office leader, but Spoelstra deserves a lot of credit for being a head coach who not only gets the most out of his star players but who also develops the skills of the lesser known players on the team. Spoelstra's teams consistently play hard and smart.
There will be plenty of time to say more about the Heat, a professional organization from top to bottom that is making its second Eastern Conference Finals appearance in three years. The 76ers are, to put it mildly, not in the same class as the Heat from top to bottom. As Jalen Rose said after the game, "I can't believe that Philly quit like that." Embiid and Harden disappeared during an embarrassing 120-85 game five loss and they did not show up for game six, either. James Harden's sorry history in elimination games is well-documented and he added another ignominious chapter to his book of playoff implosions. The amazing thing is that, other than the specific statistics and quotes, I could have written this game recap before the game began--and I actually put together the basic template before the game began, because I knew that Harden would play poorly and I knew that his team would lose. In fact, I predicted Harden's playoff implosion months ago, right after the 76ers acquired him:
The fit with Embiid and Harden looks clunky: they are two players who
love playing isolation ball and who do not provide much value
offensively when they are not playing isolation ball.
It will be amusing watching Harden's inevitable playoff collapse ensure that the 76ers are not rewarded for trying to "tank to the top."
The Embiid-Harden duo enjoyed a brief honeymoon period, but I was not impressed, nor did I change my assessment of Harden:
Harden has already proven throughout his career who he is and what he
is about. The evidence is available for everyone to see: the sulking,
the whining, and the pouting, plus the playoff performances featuring poor shooting and high turnover numbers, especially in elimination games.
It is interesting that so many people believe that he is going to
magically transform himself into a champion. Is it impossible? No, it is
not impossible, but that is not the point; the point is whether or not
such a transformation is likely, based on the available evidence.
Since Harden sulked, whined, and pouted his way out of Oklahoma City in 2012, the player proclaimed by Daryl Morey to be the greatest scorer in pro basketball history
has compiled an 8-9 record in playoff series. Harden has not reached
the NBA Finals since leaving Oklahoma City, he has played in just two
Conference Finals in nine years, and he has lost in the first round
three times.
Overall, Harden has shot .420 or worse from the
field in 15 of his 25 career playoff series, and he has shot .420 or
worse from the field in 46 of his 137 career playoff games. Harden has
played in four game sevens since leaving Oklahoma City; here are his
field goal percentages in those games: 7-20, 12-29, 4-15, 5-17.
Remarkably, his teams went 2-2 in those games despite his awful
shooting--and we know that he was not making up for this by playing good
defense, so this indicates that Harden had a lot of help, contradicting
the notion that he had to do everything himself. If Harden had been
more productive and efficient--if Harden was as good as Morey
proclaims--then Harden would have already won a championship.
If
Harden is effective and efficient during the 2022 playoffs then he will
be breaking the performance trend that he has established throughout
his NBA career. If Harden makes it through the rest of the season and
the playoffs without finding some person, teammate, or situation to
sulk, whine, and pout about then he will be changing the mindset that he
has established and maintained throughout his career.
Watching Harden in the playoffs in the 2010s and 2020s is the opposite from what I experienced watching the Michael Jordan-Scottie Pippen Chicago Bulls in the 1990s; I knew that somehow those teams would win—and they usually did—just like I know that somehow Harden will play poorly when it matters most, and his teams will lose.
Harden did not play poorly overall in the first half of game six (11 points on 4-7
field goal shooting, five assists, one turnover), but a couple of the
little plays that Harden made (or failed to make) in the first half reveal so much about his mentality: the pass he made with the shot clock
about to expire in a vain (in both senses of the word) attempt to
preserve his field goal percentage, and the offensive rebound that he
gave up to Tyler Herro by failing to either box out or pursue the ball.
People who evaluate players and teams primarily by looking at numbers
without watching how players and teams perform from play to play will consistently fail to
understand the game.
I did not change my game recap template after Harden's decent first half, because I had a good idea what would happen next, though I must say that in many ways Harden exceeded my expectations: he did not score a point in the second half, shooting 0-2 from the field, and he had nearly as many turnovers (three) as assists (four). Add it all up, and Harden finished with 11 points, nine assists, and four turnovers while shooting 4-9 from the field. Yes, he had the same number of turnovers and made field goals. The great thing about competition is that after media members construct narratives and "stat gurus" manipulate numbers there still is nowhere to hide on the court: either you step up and perform, and or you shrink under pressure, and everyone can see what you do/who you are. Harden has been doing this consistently for nearly 10 years, and yet there are still people who will either (1) refuse to acknowledge the truth or (2) make excuses for Harden/assert that Harden used to play well in the playoffs but that he is old now.
Joel Embiid was aggressive but not efficient in the first half, scoring 14 points on
5-14 field goal shooting. He settled for too many jump shots and too
many off balance shots; he was most effective when he went into the
paint. We know that he is playing hurt, and if we did not know that then he reminded us by falling down every other play; honestly, I have never seen a skilled athlete fall down that much in one basketball game. The old school mantra is simple: if you are injured then you cannot play, but if you play then you don't make excuses. Wilt Chamberlain won the 1972 Finals MVP with a broken hand. Kobe Bryant won multiple games, series, and championships with a host of ailments.
In the second half, Embiid was less aggressive and even less efficient, scoring six points on 2-10 field goal shooting to finish with 24 points plus a game-high 12 rebounds. It was not an MVP level performance, and consequently Embiid has yet to advance past the second round. "Tanking to the Top" is more accurately called "Tanking to Losing in the Second Round."
It was a treat to listen to Hubie Brown call the game. He does not bash players or teams, but he honestly describes what he sees, and he said a lot about both teams during this lopsided contest. Brown praised the Heat for how hard they play, how disciplined they are, and how well they followed the game plan at both ends of the court--and Brown pointed out that the 76ers were consistently outhustled while playing without much game plan discipline at both ends of the court.
The 76ers' second half collapse is even more pathetic considering that the Heat only led 49-48 at halftime. There is no reason for the 76ers to not be competitive in the second half of a close elimination game at home but, as Rose said, the 76ers quit.
With the season on the line, Harden started the third quarter by dribbling the ball out of bounds off of his foot, and then fouling Butler on a made two point jump shot. Harden clearly hit Butler on his elbow, but Harden complained like it was the worst foul call ever--which is hilarious considering how Harden built much of his legacy and reputation on benefiting from phantom foul calls on players trying to guard him. Perhaps Harden received so much charity from the officials over the years that he has grown to believe that he is entitled to even more charity. Butler made the free throw to complete the three point play, part of Miami's 12-2 run to start the quarter.
If one play epitomized a player, a team, and a series, it happened at the 4:58 mark of the third quarter with the Heat leading 66-52. Harden made a lazy crosscourt pass that Adebayo easily picked off. Adebayo dribbled coast to coast to score, while Harden jogged behind him exerting no effort to contest the shot or commit a foul to prevent an easy score. Philadelphia Coach Doc Rivers disgustedly called a timeout, and 76ers' fans serenaded their lackluster team with loud boos. A little later in the third quarter, Hubie Brown declared of the 76ers, "They're getting outworked, and it's embarrassing." During a typically disjointed offensive possession by the 76ers, Brown muttered, "Come on, what are we running here?" What the 76ers ran for their last play of the quarter was Harden dribbling around aimlessly before passing to Embiid at the top of the key. Embiid did some more aimless dribbling before missing a fadeaway three pointer, which is a wonderful shot for a seven foot tall center to take at any time, let alone when his team is trailing 74-63 in an elimination game. There is a huge difference between saying that you want to be the MVP, and actually being the MVP.
Butler scored 14 third quarter points on 6-9 field goal shooting. The 76ers scored 15 third quarter points on 6-21 field goal shooting. Remember the story about Butler supposedly taking a team of four second stringers or third stringers and winning a scrimmage game versus Minnesota's starters before the Timberwolves got rid of Butler? I imagine that this third quarter looked something like that scrimmage, with Embiid and Harden playing the role of starters being schooled by Butler (with no disrespect meant to the other Heat players, who played very well alongside Butler).
Despite their horrific play, the 76ers were still within striking distance at home with 12 minutes to go. As Hubie Brown said, "There is plenty of time, but you have to show some organization here." Would the 76ers play hard, play smart, and save their season? This is a team led by Embiid and Harden, so what do you think happened? Bad shots, turnovers, and no transition defense. During a timeout, Rivers pleaded with his team, "Fight for this!" The 76ers trudged back on the court, and continued to take bad shots, turn the ball over, and not get back on defense. By this time, fewer boos could be heard--because the fans were heading for the exits.
Tyrese Maxey and Shake Milton keyed a 7-0 run to cut the margin to 94-83, but that just amounted to window dressing--not that Maxey and Milton should not be credited for playing hard, but rather that two players playing hard for a brief spurt was not going to change the outcome. On the next possession, the Heat ran the shot clock all the way down before Gabe Vincent hit a dagger three pointer, and a moment later Brown said of the 76ers, "They're defeated now." Rivers waved the white flag with about a minute to go, pulling his starters out of the game; as Rose noted, that is not a great look for a coach or a team during an elimination game: what did the 76ers have to lose by fouling, extending the game, and not giving up? Apparently, they all thought that they had more important ways to spend the rest of the evening.
In the second half, Butler scored 23 points on 10-19 field goal shooting. Embiid had six points on 2-10 field goal shooting, while Harden scored no points on 0-2 field goal shooting. Remember all of that talk about Embiid and Harden being the next Shaq and Kobe? Remember Embiid saying that he never scored more easily than he did after Harden joined the team? Remember Daryl Morey refusing to trade Ben Simmons for C.J. McCollum or anyone else because he stubbornly insisted on waiting until he could acquire Harden? Let's not pretend that these foolish statements and comically bad player evaluations happened a long time ago.
Despite Harden's lackluster effort and performance, don't be surprised if Morey fires Rivers, brings in Mike D'Antoni to be the coach, and then gives Harden a max extension for over $200 million. Such moves would be par for the course for a franchise that never misses an opportunity to make a poor strategic decision: the 76ers traded Butler to Miami three years ago to hand the keys over
to Ben Simmons, who they traded earlier this season to acquire Harden,
so the bottom line is that the 76ers gave up Butler to get Harden. "Stat gurus" rarely admit to being wrong, so it would be shocking if Morey gives up on Harden, who he proclaimed to be a greater scorer than Michael Jordan. I don't recall Jordan ever shooting 0-2 from the field in the second half of an elimination game, but how could my knowledge of NBA history and player analysis possibly measure up to the knowledge and analytical capabilities of such an accomplished front office leader as Daryl Morey?
Labels: Daryl Morey, Doc Rivers, Erik Spoelstra, James Harden, Jimmy Butler, Joel Embiid, Max Strus, Miami Heat, Philadelphia 76ers
posted by David Friedman @ 11:25 PM
James Harden's Elimination Game History
Past performance does not guarantee future results, but past performance provides a good idea of what to expect. The Philadelphia 76ers face a home elimination game versus the Miami Heat tomorrow night. What should we expect to see in that game from James Harden, the player who Daryl Morey declared to be a better scorer than Michael Jordan?
Here are James Harden's statistics from the 11 playoff games in which his team faced elimination since he fled the Oklahoma City Thunder after losing in the 2012 NBA Finals:
6/19/21 Game Seven Eastern Conference Second Round versus Milwaukee Bucks (Brooklyn Nets lost, 115-111): 22 points, 5-17 FG (.294), 4 TO, -4 plus/minus.
9/12/20 Game Five Western Conference Second Round versus L.A. Lakers (Houston Rockets lost, 119-96): 30 points, 12-20 FG (.600), 6 TO, -29 plus/minus.
9/2/20 Game Seven Western Conference First Round versus Oklahoma City Thunder (Houston Rockets won, 104-102): 17 points, 4-15 FG (.267), 4 TO, +9 plus/minus.
5/10/19 Game Six Western Conference Second Round versus Golden State Warriors (Houston Rockets lost, 118-113): 35 points, 11-25 FG (.440), 6 TO, -10 plus/minus.
5/28/18 Game Seven Western Conference Finals versus Golden State Warriors (Houston Rockets lost, 101-92): 32 points, 12-29 FG (.414), 5 TO, -13 plus/minus.
5/11/17 Game Six Western Conference Second Round versus San Antonio Spurs (Houston Rockets lost, 114-75): 10 points, 2-11 FG (.182), 6 TO, -28 plus/minus.
4/27/16 Game Five Western Conference First Round versus Golden State Warriors (Houston Rockets lost, 114-81): 35 points, 12-23 FG (.522), 7 TO, -27 plus/minus.
5/27/15 Game Five Western Conference Finals versus Golden State Warriors (Houston Rockets lost, 104-90): 14 points, 2-11 FG (.182), 12 TO, -4 plus/minus.
5/17/15 Game Seven Western Conference Second Round versus L.A. Clippers (Houston Rockets won, 113-100): 31 points, 7-20 FG (.350), 7 TO, +12 plus/minus.
5/2/14 Game Six Western Conference First Round versus Portland Trail Blazers (Houston Rockets lost, 99-98): 34 points, 9-15 FG (.600), 4 TO, +7 plus/minus.
5/3/13 Game Six Western Conference First Round versus Oklahoma City Thunder (Houston Rockets lost, 103-94): 26 points, 7-22 FG (.318), 4 TO, +3 plus/minus.
Totals/Averages: 26.0 ppg, 83-208 FG (.399), 5.9 TPG, -8.5 plus/minus, 2-9 team record (average point differential for Harden's team: -11.1).
When his team faced elimination, Harden has been a high volume/low efficiency shooter who turned the ball over at an alarming rate--in fact, he set the single game playoff record for turnovers (12). Great players handle the ball a lot, so many of the highest turnover games have been logged by great players, but Harden's combination of 12 turnovers with 2-11 field goal shooting in the same game is quite special. Luka Doncic had an 11 turnover playoff game, but he shot 13-21 from the field in that game. Another way to offset a high turnover rate is to make a significant contribution defensively and/or by being a great leader but--to put it mildly--Harden is not known for doing either of those things.
Labels: Daryl Morey, James Harden, Miami Heat, Philadelphia 76ers
posted by David Friedman @ 8:18 PM
Harden's "Concert Tour" Continues as Heat Rout 76ers
"We on award tour with Muhammad, my man/Going each and every place with the mic in their hand/New York, NJ, N.C., VA."--A Tribe Called Quest, "Award Tour"
Jalen Rose had the line of the season when he said that James Harden's field goal numbers look like concert tour dates. Every time I watch Harden play now, I think of the classic A Tribe Called Quest song "Award Tour," but I insert my own lyrics as if Harden is the lead singer:
"We on award tour with Daryl Morey, my man/Going each and every place shooting bricks with either hand/Philly, Toronto, Miami."
Harden's "concert tour" rolled into Miami for a May 13 tour date as he shot 5-13 from the field in Miami's 106-92 game one second round win versus his Philadelphia 76ers. Harden finished with 16 points, nine rebounds, five assists, and five turnovers. Even with Joel Embiid out of the lineup because of a concussion and a fractured orbital bone, Harden was no better than the third best player on his team. Tobias Harris scored a game-high 27 points on 11-18 field goal shooting. As Shaquille O'Neal said during TNT's halftime show, Harris has the "triple green light" now because "He's the go-to guy." Harris showed once again that he can attack off of the dribble, make jumpers, and create plays for his teammates. Tyrese Maxey did not have a great game, but he kept attacking, and he finished with 19 points on 6-15 field goal shooting. In contrast, Harden--who is angling for a contract extension worth hundreds of millions of dollars and that would pay him past his 38th birthday--shot 1-4 from the field in the second half as the 76ers went from enjoying a 52-51 halftime lead to losing by double digits.
The Heat, playing without injured All-Star point guard Kyle Lowry and with a sore-kneed Jimmy Butler, did not play their best game, but they pulled away in the fourth quarter as Harden watched and waited for someone to save the day. Tyler Herro led the Heat with 25 points on 9-17 field goal shooting. Bam Adebayo, who should have received more opportunities in the absence of Embiid, finished with 24 points on 8-10 field goal shooting, plus 12 rebounds and four assists. Butler had 15 points and nine rebounds, but he shot just 5-16 from the field while looking nothing like the player who averaged more than 30 ppg in the first four games of the first round versus Atlanta before sitting out game five due to a knee injury.
Remember, when this season began we were told that Kevin Durant, James Harden, and Kyrie Irving formed the nucleus of what could be the greatest offense ever. That is just another example of the extent to which many media members are deeply invested in the "James Harden is an all-time great" narrative; they voted him to the All-NBA First Team when he was not one of the league's top two guards, they gave him an MVP, and they even put him on the NBA's 75th Anniversary Team. These media members are never going to admit that they were wrong about Harden, so the new narrative emerging recently is that Harden--who is just 32 years old--has lost a step and does not have the skills that he supposedly used to have. However, anyone who has followed Harden for his entire career can apply the eye test and understand that Harden now is the same player that he has been ever since he fled Oklahoma City to be the number one option in Houston. For years, he relied on (1) being rewarded with free throw attempts after plowing into defenders, (2) traveling on his so-called "step back" move to gain space to shoot three pointers, and (3) being rewarded with three free throw attempts after falling to the ground like an assassination victim during his three point field goal attempts. In short, he did not master basketball but rather he mastered "flop and flail." This enabled Harden to "efficiently" score 25-30 points during games when he shot 5-17 from the field but made 15 or 20 free throws. Also, this made defenders so wary of being called for fouls that many coaches--most notably Gregg Popovich--instructed their players to guard Harden with their hands behind their backs. Obviously, it was a lot easier for Harden to make shots when his opponents literally played with their hands tied. It is telling that Harden's field goal percentage was never very good even during the years when defenders often avoided contesting his shots.
Harden has not slowed down, but the game has caught up with him. For example, consider what happened at the 6:11 mark of the first quarter of tonight's game: Harden made the exact same move at the exact same speed that he has done for a decade, but this time Harden was correctly whistled for a charge after he plowed into P.J. Tucker. The NBA has--finally--decided to officiate correctly. Now, when Harden has a "concert tour" date like his 5-13 performance versus Miami he ends up with 16 points instead of 30.
It's not too late for media members to admit that they were wrong about Harden--well, actually, it is a bit late, unless the league is going to retroactively reallocate awards to their rightful recipients. Adrian Dantley, who drew legitimate foul calls and had a real--i.e., non-traveling--step back move should have been on the 75th Anniversary Team (as should have Chris Bosh, Alex English, Artis Gilmore, Dwight Howard, Bernard King, and Tracy McGrady). Anthony Davis, Carmelo Anthony, and Damian Lillard are other overrated active players who should not have made the 75th Anniversary Team. Maybe a new generation of media members will do better in 25 years when the 100th Anniversary Team is selected.
The only "award" on Harden's "concert tour" should be "Most Overrated MVP" ever. This is not just about one game; anyone who has ever read my work knows better than to even dare suggest that I would base an overall evaluation of any player on his performance in just one game--even a game seven. For many years, I have criticized the high variance style favored by Daryl Morey and James Harden. Harden is who I said he was. Maybe someday more people will understand that truth, and adjust their historical rankings accordingly to give deserved credit to the players who were truly great.
Labels: Bam Adebayo, Daryl Morey, James Harden, Jimmy Butler, Joel Embiid, Miami Heat, Philadelphia 76ers, Tobias Harris, Tyler Herro
posted by David Friedman @ 11:24 PM
Embiid-Harden Era Starts Well--But the Ending is What Matters
The Philadelphia 76ers debuted their much-hyped Joel Embiid-James Harden duo last Friday in a 133-102 rout of the Minnesota Timberwolves. Embiid finished with a game-high 34 points and a game-high 10 rebounds while shooting 10-18 from the field and 11-13 from the free throw line. Harden scored 27 points, dished for a game-high 12 assists, and grabbed eight rebounds while shooting 7-12 from the field and 8-9 from the free throw line. Before Philadelphia fans start making plans for a championship parade, keep in mind that the Timberwolves rank 22nd in the NBA points allowed and 30th (last in the league) in free throw attempts allowed.
On Sunday, the Philadelphia 76ers cruised by the New York Knicks, 125-109, in game two of the "dynamic duo" era. Embiid scored a game-high 37 points, doing most of his damage with a career-high and NBA season-high 23 free throws made. Embiid shot just 7-18 from the field, but New York's lack of defensive discipline provided him with 27 free throw attempts. Embiid claims that he has never had more open shots than he has had in his first two games playing with Harden, so it is interesting that he shot so poorly from the field--and it will be even more interesting to see Embiid play against a playoff-caliber team that knows how to defend without fouling. Harden finished with 29 points, a game-high 16 assists, and 10 rebounds. The Knicks have the 12th best record in the 15 team Eastern Conference, and they are getting worse as the season progresses: they have lost five games in a row, and they are 3-15 in their last 18 games.
There has been a lot of talk in the past few years about "advanced basketball statistics" and making data-driven decisions, but few people understand how to analyze correctly and how to discern the difference between relevant data and irrelevant data. It would be difficult to think of a better example of "empty calorie"
statistics than what Embiid, Harden, and the 76ers just stacked up
against Minnesota and New York. The individual and team statistics from those games have very little predictive value regarding the 76ers' playoff prospects; the individual and team statistics that are relevant are the large sample size of data regarding Embiid's health, availability, and playoff production, and the even larger sample size of data regarding Harden's unreliability and playoff production.
Winning a championship requires more than just individual and collective talent. There is no question that Embiid is one of the most talented players in the NBA, and there is no question that James Harden has All-Star level talent--but there are valid questions about Embiid's ability to be the best player on a championship team, and there are valid questions about Harden's ability to play a major role on a championship team. This has nothing to do with being a "hater" of either player, or being a fan of other players/teams; this is about objectively and correctly analyzing the relevant available data.
Embiid missed the first two seasons of his career due to injury. He has never played more than 64 games in a season, and even in the past two seasons that were shortened by COVID-19 he missed more than 20 games each season. Embiid has already missed 12 out of 60 games this season. Embiid has missed four out of his team's 38 playoff games due to injury. He will turn 28 in March, and he is an eight year veteran if you count the two missed seasons. Is it possible that a player who has only once played more than 2000 minutes in a season and who has never had a playoff run lasting longer than 11 games will become a durable workhorse who stays healthy the rest of the season and then leads Philadelphia to a championship in a playoff run lasting over 20 games? Sure, it is possible. Is it likely? The evidence does not suggest that Embiid is likely to stay healthy for such an extended period. If the 76ers play well enough to make an extended playoff run--which is far from certain, either, as discussed below--it is likely that Embiid will suffer an injury that either forces him to miss games and/or limits his effectiveness; the above numbers do not take into account how many games Embiid played when he was limited by injury, but those games when his impact was diminished due to injury are important data points to consider as well.
Assuming that Embiid stays healthy, or at least is not seriously limited by injury, what level of play is reasonable to expect from him in the playoffs? Again, this is not about his "empty calorie" regular season statistics against bad teams; we are interested in relevant data. Embiid has shot .400 or worse from the field in 14 out of his 34 playoff games. He has an 0-2 game seven record, with one good shooting performance (11-21) and one awful shooting performance (6-18). Considering Embiid's size, his basketball skills, and his athletic talents, he has been a playoff underachiever. Embiid's primary offensive attack area should be in the paint, and he should regularly be shooting significantly better than .500 from the field; that is the expectation for dominant big man scorers who lead teams to championships.
Embiid is younger than Harden, and Embiid's playoff resume is briefer. Some great players do not win their first championship until they are 28, or even older, so the above analysis is not meant to suggest that it is impossible for Embiid to lead a team to a title--but when you look at the playoff resumes of players who did not have immediate championship success before eventually winning championships--two examples are Michael Jordan and Shaquille O'Neal--those players were consistently durable, consistently productive, and consistently efficient. How many great players have missed a significant amount of games due to injury during their prime years before leading a team to at least one championship? The answer is one: Bill Walton, who suffered through several injury-riddled seasons before leading Portland to the 1977 title after a season during which he played in just 65 regular season games. He lasted just 58 games the next season, and spent most of the next several years on the shelf before playing 80 games for the 1986 Boston Celtics, capturing the Sixth Man of the Year award and winning a championship as a role player. If Joel Embiid stays healthy enough and productive enough to lead Philadelphia to a championship, he will be a statistical outlier compared to other players who have been the best player on championship teams.
Side note: Chris Paul's injury late during this season that is expected to sideline him for several weeks was predictable, because he regularly is either injured and/or worn down as the season draws to a close and the playoffs begin. When I predict individual and team success, durability is a major factor that I consider. I would hesitate to pick a team led by Joel Embiid or Chris Paul to win a championship, because I do not expect either player to be close to full strength during the NBA Finals, assuming that they can even lead their teams that far--Embiid has yet to play in the NBA Finals, and 17 season veteran Chris Paul has played in one NBA Finals.
Harden is more durable physically than Embiid, though Harden's body seems to be starting to break down; it is difficult to say for sure what Harden's physical health status is, because with Harden it is tough to separate his psychological issues from his physical issues: are the hamstring problems that he has reportedly suffered from during the past couple seasons a result of aging, lack of conditioning, or just an excuse when he preferred not to perform? Up to this point, Harden's lack of a championship mindset has been a bigger concern than his physical durability, but hard living and soft conditioning may be catching up to him.
Regardless of what happened in the past, Harden's hamstring has just made a miraculous recovery right after he sulked, whined, and pouted his way out of Brooklyn; in his last two games with Brooklyn, Harden shot a combined 8-27 from the field (.296), committed 10 turnovers, and had a -32 plus/minus number. It is worth remembering that in his last two games before sulking, whining, and pouting his way out of Houston to go to Brooklyn, Harden shot a combined 12-28 from the field (.429), committed 10 turnovers, and had a -34 plus/minus number. Harden's resume shows that when he becomes unhappy, he places his personal happiness above team goals, and he performs at a subpar level until he feels happy again. That is not a championship mindset, and just like physical durability is a trait that is unlikely to improve over time, a loser's mindset is very unlikely to evolve into a champion's mindset. Championship runs are filled with adversity; champions fight through adversity, while losers sulk, whine, and pout.
Harden has already proven throughout his career who he is and what he is about. The evidence is available for everyone to see: the sulking, the whining, and the pouting, plus the playoff performances featuring poor shooting and high turnover numbers, especially in elimination games. It is interesting that so many people believe that he is going to magically transform himself into a champion. Is it impossible? No, it is not impossible, but that is not the point; the point is whether or not such a transformation is likely, based on the available evidence.
Since Harden sulked, whined, and pouted his way out of Oklahoma City in 2012, the player proclaimed by Daryl Morey to be the greatest scorer in pro basketball history has compiled an 8-9 record in playoff series. Harden has not reached the NBA Finals since leaving Oklahoma City, he has played in just two Conference Finals in nine years, and he has lost in the first round three times.
Overall, Harden has shot .420 or worse from the field in 15 of his 25 career playoff series, and he has shot .420 or worse from the field in 46 of his 137 career playoff games. Harden has played in four game sevens since leaving Oklahoma City; here are his field goal percentages in those games: 7-20, 12-29, 4-15, 5-17. Remarkably, his teams went 2-2 in those games despite his awful shooting--and we know that he was not making up for this by playing good defense, so this indicates that Harden had a lot of help, contradicting the notion that he had to do everything himself. If Harden had been more productive and efficient--if Harden was as good as Morey proclaims--then Harden would have already won a championship.
If Harden is effective and efficient during the 2022 playoffs then he will be breaking the performance trend that he has established throughout his NBA career. If Harden makes it through the rest of the season and the playoffs without finding some person, teammate, or situation to sulk, whine, and pout about then he will be changing the mindset that he has established and maintained throughout his career.
I am not sure yet who will win the Eastern Conference, but I would be very surprised if the Philadelphia 76ers win the Eastern Conference; it is much more likely that within the next two to three years Harden will be sulking, whining, and pouting his way out of Philadelphia, while Embiid continues to battle injuries.
Labels: Daryl Morey, James Harden, Joel Embiid, Philadelphia 76ers
posted by David Friedman @ 9:15 PM
Nets Trade Disgruntled James Harden for Disgruntled 76er Ben Simmons
Violating the terms of a signed contract is a powerful bargaining tool, at least if you are a highly paid NBA star. Ben Simmons, under contract with the Philadelphia 76ers, decided prior to this season that he did not want to play for the team any more, so he has missed every game this season. James Harden, under contract with the Brooklyn Nets, decided that he did not want to play for the team any more, so he played indifferently, claimed to be injured, and made it clear that he will never play hard for the team again. Simmons and Harden leveraged their refusal to honor their signed contracts into obtaining what they wanted, and they have now been traded for each other: Simmons is going to Brooklyn along with Seth Curry, Andre Drummond, and two first round draft picks in exchange for Harden and Paul Millsap.
Right after the trade was announced, ESPN's Richard Jefferson correctly noted that everyone wants to win but there is a big difference between wanting to win and doing what is necessary to win: "At what point in time has James Harden ever done what it takes to win?" The answer to Jefferson's question is obvious: James Harden is soft and he is a fraud. He quits when the going gets even mildly difficult. Harden pouted his way out of Houston, played (relatively) hard for a little while in Brooklyn, and now he has pouted his way out of Brooklyn to work for 76ers "stat guru"/president of basketball operations Daryl Morey, the only person in the world who believes that Harden is a better scorer than Michael Jordan
Regardless of all of the breathless reporting about Simmons' mental state and Harden's hamstring, I am going to go out on what I believe to be a very sturdy limb: as soon as Harden and Simmons pass the mandatory physical exams required as part of any NBA trade, both will play for their new teams without any sign of physical or mental issues. I am not minimizing the importance of mental health in general or Simmons' mental health in particular, nor am I categorically stating that Harden is not injured enough to be missing games; I am just stating my opinion that, regardless of what others may be reporting, I expect that both players will be available to play very soon.
Assuming that both Harden and Simmons are healthy and available, how should this trade be evaluated? Here is a brief skill set evaluation of both players:
James Harden Scouting Report
Harden rebounds very well for a guard. He defends the post well for a guard. He is an excellent free throw shooter. He can make the two passes that every competent ballhandler in the NBA is expected to make in today's game: the drive and kick pass to the three point shooter in the corner, and the lob pass to a rolling big man off of a basic screen/roll action.
Harden is a traffic cone when he defends on the perimeter, and he generally trots back on defense as opposed to sprinting back on defense. His ability to draw fouls is highly dependent on how the game is officiated; he is the king of "flop and flail" but this season he has been affected more than any other star player by the NBA's belated decision to officiate games correctly and stop giving unfair advantages to perimeter scorers. Harden has a lengthy resume of playoff choking, and in general when he faces any sort of meaningful challenge he pouts and quits.
Ben Simmons Scouting Report
Simmons is an elite defender, rebounder, and passer. He owns a 15.9 ppg career scoring average with a .560 career field goal percentage. His size, length, and athleticism enable him to play multiple positions and have a significant impact at both ends of the court.
Simmons is a notoriously poor and reluctant outside shooter/free throw shooter. He often plays with a low motor and low energy level.
James Harden versus Ben Simmons
James Harden is a better scorer than Ben Simmons. Simmons is better than Harden in every other important skill set area: defense, rebounding, passing, ballhandling (per minute, during their careers Simmons has averaged more assists, more steals, and fewer turnovers than Harden; those numbers are not the only ways to evaluate ballhandling, but they are indicative that Simmons plays the "possession game" at both ends of the court better than Harden does). The 32 year old Harden has never kept himself in peak condition, and it is evident that this is catching up with him now. The 25 year old Simmons missed his first season due to a foot injury, but since that time he has been durable--at least until he refused to play this season.
Simmons is bigger, more athletic, and younger than Harden. He is better than Harden at everything except scoring. Assuming that Simmons is the same player when he returns to action that he was for his first four seasons, he is a better player now than Harden, and without question he is a better fit for the Nets, who need size, defense, and playmaking.
The other players and assets involved in the trade must also be mentioned.
Brooklyn is the clear winner of the "below the marquee" portion of this trade. Seth Curry is an elite three point shooter who is averaging a career-high 15.0 ppg this season. He will be a valuable rotation player for the Nets. Andre Drummond is a four-time rebounding champion who is averaging 8.8 rpg this season in just 18.4 mpg. He can provide a physical presence for a Nets team that lacks size and physicality. The two first round picks obviously will not help the Nets this season, but those are assets that can be used to acquire young talent either directly via the draft, or in future trades.
In contrast, Paul Millsap has averaged 3.4 ppg on .376 field goal shooting in 24 games this season. He is a four-time All-Star but he turned 37 today and it is difficult to picture him having much of an impact for Philadelphia.
This deal favors Brooklyn, but the key for the Nets' championship hopes is the healthy return of Kevin Durant. If Durant comes back soon and resumes playing at an MVP level then the Nets will be very dangerous, regardless of their playoff seeding. Without MVP level Durant, the Nets will not win a championship, or even a playoff series.
It is not hard to figure out what Morey is thinking. He believes that NBA championships are won by superstar players, and that it is worth it to get rid of even several quality players and first round draft picks to obtain a superstar player. The problem is not Morey's operating theory in this situation so much as how he is applying that theory in the real world. The bottom line is that James Harden is not a superstar who can lead a team to a championship--never was, never will be. Further, Harden does not mesh well with other star players because he (1) has a poor work ethic that permeates the team, (2) he monopolizes the ball, and (3) you cannot rely on him when the going gets tough.
One might argue that the 76ers won because they "gave up nothing" (i.e., a player who refuses to play for their team) to obtain an All-Star player. The main flaw with that assessment is that the 76ers did not "give up nothing": they gave up a 25 year old All-Star, an outstanding shooter who can start or provide instant offense as a reserve, an elite rebounder, and two first round draft picks in a league that considers first round draft picks to be very valuable assets. Simmons' decision to no longer play for Philadelphia tells us something about him, but it also tells us something about the ham-handed way that Morey's franchise dealt with their young star. If Simmons becomes a flop in Brooklyn, then perhaps we can conclude that the 76ers were smart to get rid of a non-performing asset--but if Simmons has a productive 10 year career with the Nets then this deal is a disaster for the 76ers unless the Embiid-Harden duo wins at least one championship. The 76ers have a small championship window, but they will be on the hook to pay Harden over $200 million (assuming that he signs a max level extension), which could turn out to be the worst contract in NBA history.
Embiid is a very gifted player but he is rarely in top condition and his playoff resume is littered with injuries and inconsistent play: he has appeared in seven playoff series but he shot .500 or better from the field in only two of those series, which speaks volumes about his shot selection and/or conditioning, because he is capable of being an efficient scorer. He has the necessary talent to be the best player on a championship team, but I would be surprised if he wins a title as the best player.
Harden has already proven that he cannot be the best player on a championship team. When he played for the Oklahoma City Thunder early in his career, he chafed at being the third option. One would assume that he understands the pecking order in Philadelphia, but time will tell. As Harden's skills decline and as the league moves away from rewarding "flop and flail," it is not clear if Harden can be the second best player on a championship team. The fit with Embiid and Harden looks clunky: they are two players who love playing isolation ball and who do not provide much value offensively when they are not playing isolation ball.
It will be amusing watching Harden's inevitable playoff collapse ensure that the 76ers are not rewarded for trying to "tank to the top."
Labels: Ben Simmons, Brooklyn Nets, Daryl Morey, James Harden, Joel Embiid, Kevin Durant, Philadelphia 76ers
posted by David Friedman @ 8:11 PM
