20 Second Timeout

How Should All-Star Injury Replacement Players be Selected?

Draymond Green will not be able to play in the All-Star Game due to injury. By rule, NBA Commissioner Adam Silver selects replacement All-Stars. Silver replaced Green, a forward, with a guard. Here are the statistics of two Western Conference guards so far this season:

Player #1: 18.4 ppg, 7.8 rpg, 7.7 apg, 1.1 spg, .437 FG%, .300 3FG%, .668 FT%, 34.7 mpg, 54 games played; team record: 26-28.

Player #2: 19.6 ppg, 8.4 rpg, 9.2 apg, 2.1 spg, .454 FG%, .316 3FG%, .740 FT%, 34.4 mpg, 47 games played; team record: 20-34.

Which player looks more like an All-Star to you? Can you guess who each player is, and which player Silver selected?

Player #1 is Russell Westbrook, who has been the subject of relentless criticism this season. Player #2 is Dejounte Murray. Silver selected Murray, whose San Antonio Spurs currently rank 12th in the Western Conference, six games behind Westbrook's L.A. Lakers.

I have no problem with Dejounte Murray being selected as an All-Star; he is a triple double threat who is also a potent scorer. I would not argue with anyone who says that Murray is having a slightly better season than Westbrook. However, the narratives about both players are fascinating contrasts: Murray is depicted as a rising star, while Westbrook is portrayed as a liability. It is also interesting that the importance of team success is often mentioned as one of the criteria for being selected as an All-Star, but Murray received the honor despite playing for a team that has one of the worst records in the NBA. One might argue that Murray is the number one option on his squad, so he is shouldering more of a load than Westbrook, who is the Lakers' third option behind LeBron James and Anthony Davis--but, if anything, that should not work in Murray's favor: since Murray is the Spurs' best player, he bears more responsibility for their record than Westbrook does for the Lakers' record. Also, the Spurs are built around Murray, so he not only has more opportunities to shoot, but he is able to get shots in his comfort zone, while Westbrook is often relegated to waiting off of the ball unless/until James and Davis decide to not shoot. Westbrook's durability and availability are worth noting, as he is one of a handful of NBA players to start every game in this tumultuous season marred by injuries, COVID protocols, and load management. 

According to my research, the only player other than Westbrook to not be selected as an All-Star despite averaging at least 18 ppg, at least 7 rpg, and at least 7 apg is Fat Lever, who accomplished that statistical trifecta for three straight seasons (1987-89) while making the All-Star team once (Lever also made the All-Star team in 1990, a season during which he averaged 18.3/9.3/6.5). The list of 18-7-7 luminaries who made the All-Star team prior to this season includes Oscar Robertson, Wilt Chamberlain, John Havlicek, Larry Bird, Magic Johnson, Fat Lever, Michael Jordan, LeBron James, Russell Westbrook, Nikola Jokic, Luka Doncic, and James Harden. Westbrook is in the midst of his eighth straight such season, and he has already broken the record of six consecutive such seasons set by Robertson from 1961-66. Most 18-7-7 players were considered MVP candidates (with Lever as the only exception until Westbrook this season), and I am not aware of any such players being described in the disparaging terms that are constantly thrown at Westbrook. 

It is fascinating that Robertson's accomplishment of averaging a triple double for an entire season was considered to be perhaps an unbreakable record until Westbrook did it, but now that Westbrook has done it four times in the past five seasons we are supposed to pretend that this is nothing special.

I understand why Murray is viewed as an All-Star, but it should be noted that he is not a demonstrably better player than Westbrook this season, that Westbrook is performing at an elite all-around statistical level, and Westbrook has been a more durable player for a team that has a better record. Silver is under no obligation to explain his thought process, so we will never know what selection criteria he used, if this was a close call, or if Westbrook even received any serious consideration.

It is strange that Silver replaced a forward with a guard. Objectively speaking, if a forward is unable to play then the forward who received the most votes--either from the fan/media/player voting and/or from the coach voting--should get that open spot. I understand why the Commissioner selects the replacement players--he wants to have the discretion to choose players who he thinks will be the most entertaining in order to boost TV ratings--but since the fans, media, players, and coaches already voted it would be more logical and consistent to just follow that process all the way.

Labels: Dejounte Murray, NBA All-Star Game, Russell Westbrook

posted by David Friedman @ 2:54 AM

0 comments