20 Second Timeout

Butler Did It: Heat Dominate 76ers, Advance to the Eastern Conference Finals

The Butler did it, while Joel Embiid and James Harden watched. Full credit to the winners first, and then we will turn our attention to the losers. Jimmy Butler did not have a great first half, but he did not quit, and he dominated in the second half to finish with a game-high 32 points plus eight rebounds and four assists. Max Strus scored 20 points, grabbed a team-high 11 rebounds, and dished for five assists. P.J. Tucker scored 12 points and it seemed like he grabbed every loose ball (he ended up with nine rebounds, including four offensive rebounds). Bam Adebayo and Tyler Herro chipped in 10 points each. The Heat were without the services of injured All-Star point guard Kyle Lowry, but they did not whine and they did not make excuses; the Heat went into what is supposed to be a hostile environment facing a player who talks about being the MVP and a player who has previously been named the MVP, and the Heat dismantled the 76ers, 99-90. The game was not nearly as close or competitive as that score may suggest, because by midway through the third quarter everyone in the building knew that the 76ers had no chance: the Philadelphia fans booed, and then many of them went home before the final buzzer.

I remember when I first started covering the NBA in person, and I watched a little known assistant coach named Erik Spoelstra working out before games with a young Dwyane Wade. Pat Riley built Heat culture first as a coach and then as a front office leader, but Spoelstra deserves a lot of credit for being a head coach who not only gets the most out of his star players but who also develops the skills of the lesser known players on the team. Spoelstra's teams consistently play hard and smart.

There will be plenty of time to say more about the Heat, a professional organization from top to bottom that is making its second Eastern Conference Finals appearance in three years. The 76ers are, to put it mildly, not in the same class as the Heat from top to bottom. As Jalen Rose said after the game, "I can't believe that Philly quit like that." Embiid and Harden disappeared during an embarrassing 120-85 game five loss and they did not show up for game six, either. James Harden's sorry history in elimination games is well-documented and he added another ignominious chapter to his book of playoff implosions. The amazing thing is that, other than the specific statistics and quotes, I could have written this game recap before the game began--and I actually put together the basic template before the game began, because I knew that Harden would play poorly and I knew that his team would lose. In fact, I predicted Harden's playoff implosion months ago, right after the 76ers acquired him: 

The fit with Embiid and Harden looks clunky: they are two players who love playing isolation ball and who do not provide much value offensively when they are not playing isolation ball.

It will be amusing watching Harden's inevitable playoff collapse ensure that the 76ers are not rewarded for trying to "tank to the top."

The Embiid-Harden duo enjoyed a brief honeymoon period, but I was not impressed, nor did I change my assessment of Harden:

Harden has already proven throughout his career who he is and what he is about. The evidence is available for everyone to see: the sulking, the whining, and the pouting, plus the playoff performances featuring poor shooting and high turnover numbers, especially in elimination games. It is interesting that so many people believe that he is going to magically transform himself into a champion. Is it impossible? No, it is not impossible, but that is not the point; the point is whether or not such a transformation is likely, based on the available evidence.

Since Harden sulked, whined, and pouted his way out of Oklahoma City in 2012, the player proclaimed by Daryl Morey to be the greatest scorer in pro basketball history has compiled an 8-9 record in playoff series. Harden has not reached the NBA Finals since leaving Oklahoma City, he has played in just two Conference Finals in nine years, and he has lost in the first round three times.

Overall, Harden has shot .420 or worse from the field in 15 of his 25 career playoff series, and he has shot .420 or worse from the field in 46 of his 137 career playoff games. Harden has played in four game sevens since leaving Oklahoma City; here are his field goal percentages in those games: 7-20, 12-29, 4-15, 5-17. Remarkably, his teams went 2-2 in those games despite his awful shooting--and we know that he was not making up for this by playing good defense, so this indicates that Harden had a lot of help, contradicting the notion that he had to do everything himself. If Harden had been more productive and efficient--if Harden was as good as Morey proclaims--then Harden would have already won a championship.

If Harden is effective and efficient during the 2022 playoffs then he will be breaking the performance trend that he has established throughout his NBA career. If Harden makes it through the rest of the season and the playoffs without finding some person, teammate, or situation to sulk, whine, and pout about then he will be changing the mindset that he has established and maintained throughout his career.

Watching Harden in the playoffs in the 2010s and 2020s is the opposite from what I experienced watching the Michael Jordan-Scottie Pippen Chicago Bulls in the 1990s; I knew that somehow those teams would win—and they usually did—just like I know that somehow Harden will play poorly when it matters most, and his teams will lose.

Harden did not play poorly overall in the first half of game six (11 points on 4-7 field goal shooting, five assists, one turnover), but a couple of the little plays that Harden made (or failed to make) in the first half reveal so much about his mentality: the pass he made with the shot clock about to expire in a vain (in both senses of the word) attempt to preserve his field goal percentage, and the offensive rebound that he gave up to Tyler Herro by failing to either box out or pursue the ball. People who evaluate players and teams primarily by looking at numbers without watching how players and teams perform from play to play will consistently fail to understand the game.

I did not change my game recap template after Harden's decent first half, because I had a good idea what would happen next, though I must say that in many ways Harden exceeded my expectations: he did not score a point in the second half, shooting 0-2 from the field, and he had nearly as many turnovers (three) as assists (four). Add it all up, and Harden finished with 11 points, nine assists, and four turnovers while shooting 4-9 from the field. Yes, he had the same number of turnovers and made field goals. The great thing about competition is that after media members construct narratives and "stat gurus" manipulate numbers there still is nowhere to hide on the court: either you step up and perform, and or you shrink under pressure, and everyone can see what you do/who you are. Harden has been doing this consistently for nearly 10 years, and yet there are still people who will either (1) refuse to acknowledge the truth or (2) make excuses for Harden/assert that Harden used to play well in the playoffs but that he is old now.

Joel Embiid was aggressive but not efficient in the first half, scoring 14 points on 5-14 field goal shooting. He settled for too many jump shots and too many off balance shots; he was most effective when he went into the paint. We know that he is playing hurt, and if we did not know that then he reminded us by falling down every other play; honestly, I have never seen a skilled athlete fall down that much in one basketball game. The old school mantra is simple: if you are injured then you cannot play, but if you play then you don't make excuses. Wilt Chamberlain won the 1972 Finals MVP with a broken hand. Kobe Bryant won multiple games, series, and championships with a host of ailments.

In the second half, Embiid was less aggressive and even less efficient, scoring six points on 2-10 field goal shooting to finish with 24 points plus a game-high 12 rebounds. It was not an MVP level performance, and consequently Embiid has yet to advance past the second round. "Tanking to the Top" is more accurately called "Tanking to Losing in the Second Round."

It was a treat to listen to Hubie Brown call the game. He does not bash players or teams, but he honestly describes what he sees, and he said a lot about both teams during this lopsided contest. Brown praised the Heat for how hard they play, how disciplined they are, and how well they followed the game plan at both ends of the court--and Brown pointed out that the 76ers were consistently outhustled while playing without much game plan discipline at both ends of the court.

The 76ers' second half collapse is even more pathetic considering that the Heat only led 49-48 at halftime. There is no reason for the 76ers to not be competitive in the second half of a close elimination game at home but, as Rose said, the 76ers quit.

With the season on the line, Harden started the third quarter by dribbling the ball out of bounds off of his foot, and then fouling Butler on a made two point jump shot. Harden clearly hit Butler on his elbow, but Harden complained like it was the worst foul call ever--which is hilarious considering how Harden built much of his legacy and reputation on benefiting from phantom foul calls on players trying to guard him. Perhaps Harden received so much charity from the officials over the years that he has grown to believe that he is entitled to even more charity. Butler made the free throw to complete the three point play, part of Miami's 12-2 run to start the quarter.

If one play epitomized a player, a team, and a series, it happened at the 4:58 mark of the third quarter with the Heat leading 66-52. Harden made a lazy crosscourt pass that Adebayo easily picked off. Adebayo dribbled coast to coast to score, while Harden jogged behind him exerting no effort to contest the shot or commit a foul to prevent an easy score. Philadelphia Coach Doc Rivers disgustedly called a timeout, and 76ers' fans serenaded their lackluster team with loud boos. A little later in the third quarter, Hubie Brown declared of the 76ers, "They're getting outworked, and it's embarrassing." During a typically disjointed offensive possession by the 76ers, Brown muttered, "Come on, what are we running here?" What the 76ers ran for their last play of the quarter was Harden dribbling around aimlessly before passing to Embiid at the top of the key. Embiid did some more aimless dribbling before missing a fadeaway three pointer, which is a wonderful shot for a seven foot tall center to take at any time, let alone when his team is trailing 74-63 in an elimination game. There is a huge difference between saying that you want to be the MVP, and actually being the MVP. 

Butler scored 14 third quarter points on 6-9 field goal shooting. The 76ers scored 15 third quarter points on 6-21 field goal shooting. Remember the story about Butler supposedly taking a team of four second stringers or third stringers and winning a scrimmage game versus Minnesota's starters before the Timberwolves got rid of Butler? I imagine that this third quarter looked something like that scrimmage, with Embiid and Harden playing the role of starters being schooled by Butler (with no disrespect meant to the other Heat players, who played very well alongside Butler).

Despite their horrific play, the 76ers were still within striking distance at home with 12 minutes to go. As Hubie Brown said, "There is plenty of time, but you have to show some organization here." Would the 76ers play hard, play smart, and save their season? This is a team led by Embiid and Harden, so what do you think happened? Bad shots, turnovers, and no transition defense. During a timeout, Rivers pleaded with his team, "Fight for this!" The 76ers trudged back on the court, and continued to take bad shots, turn the ball over, and not get back on defense. By this time, fewer boos could be heard--because the fans were heading for the exits. 

Tyrese Maxey and Shake Milton keyed a 7-0 run to cut the margin to 94-83, but that just amounted to window dressing--not that Maxey and Milton should not be credited for playing hard, but rather that two players playing hard for a brief spurt was not going to change the outcome. On the next possession, the Heat ran the shot clock all the way down before Gabe Vincent hit a dagger three pointer, and a moment later Brown said of the 76ers, "They're defeated now." Rivers waved the white flag with about a minute to go, pulling his starters out of the game; as Rose noted, that is not a great look for a coach or a team during an elimination game: what did the 76ers have to lose by fouling, extending the game, and not giving up? Apparently, they all thought that they had more important ways to spend the rest of the evening.

In the second half, Butler scored 23 points on 10-19 field goal shooting. Embiid had six points on 2-10 field goal shooting, while Harden scored no points on 0-2 field goal shooting. Remember all of that talk about Embiid and Harden being the next Shaq and Kobe? Remember Embiid saying that he never scored more easily than he did after Harden joined the team? Remember Daryl Morey refusing to trade Ben Simmons for C.J. McCollum or anyone else because he stubbornly insisted on waiting until he could acquire Harden? Let's not pretend that these foolish statements and comically bad player evaluations happened a long time ago.

Despite Harden's lackluster effort and performance, don't be surprised if Morey fires Rivers, brings in Mike D'Antoni to be the coach, and then gives Harden a max extension for over $200 million. Such moves would be par for the course for a franchise that never misses an opportunity to make a poor strategic decision: the 76ers traded Butler to Miami three years ago to hand the keys over to Ben Simmons, who they traded earlier this season to acquire Harden, so the bottom line is that the 76ers gave up Butler to get Harden. "Stat gurus" rarely admit to being wrong, so it would be shocking if Morey gives up on Harden, who he proclaimed to be a greater scorer than Michael Jordan. I don't recall Jordan ever shooting 0-2 from the field in the second half of an elimination game, but how could my knowledge of NBA history and player analysis possibly measure up to the knowledge and analytical capabilities of such an accomplished front office leader as Daryl Morey?

Labels: Daryl Morey, Doc Rivers, Erik Spoelstra, James Harden, Jimmy Butler, Joel Embiid, Max Strus, Miami Heat, Philadelphia 76ers

posted by David Friedman @ 11:25 PM

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