A Way Too Early Assessment of the New Look Clippers
A few days ago, I provided A Way Too Early Assessment of the New Look Lakers. In that same spirit, I present two paragraphs about the new look L.A. Clippers, who have played three games since acquiring Russell Westbrook after the 2017 regular season MVP was traded by the Lakers to the Jazz and then negotiated a buyout so that he could sign with the team of his choice. Every stated fact/statistic in both paragraphs is accurate, but one paragraph uses facts/statistics out of context while the other paragraph places facts/statistics in context. You can think about this as the difference between writing for the "Galaxy's Leader in Sports" versus writing for an independent website that is not beholden to a particular agenda or particular interests.
Paragraph #1:
"Since acquiring Russell Westbrook, the L.A. Clippers--who had won their previous two games--have gone 0-3 while giving up an average of 139.0 ppg, which would be the worst points allowed defense in NBA history if the Clippers maintained that pace for a full 82 game season. Westbrook scored 17 points or less in each of those losses while amassing a total of 13 turnovers. The Clippers are now clinging to the Western Conference's sixth seed, just a half game ahead of the Dallas Mavericks."
Paragraph #2:
"Since acquiring Russell Westbrook, the L.A. Clippers lost a 176-175 double overtime shootout versus the Sacramento Kings, the third seeded team in the Western Conference that had previously split a pair of games versus the Clippers this season. After that close decision in the second highest scoring game in NBA history, the Clippers had just one day off before traveling to Denver to face the Western Conference leading Nuggets, who had already beaten the Clippers three straight times this season. The Nuggets prevailed again, 134-124, but this time the Clippers pushed them to overtime after losing by at least 10 points in regulation in each of their three previous contests versus the Nuggets. The Clippers then had one day off before returning home and dropping a 108-101 decision versus the Minnesota Timberwolves. In his first three games as a Clipper, Westbrook averaged 16.0 ppg, 9.3 apg, and 5.7 rpg with shooting splits of .529/.444/1.000."
Read
both paragraphs again to consider how it is possible to state facts yet
not tell the truth (a tactic frequently used by propagandists in a
variety of fields, not just sports media).
Labels: Kawhi Leonard, L.A. Clippers, Paul George, Russell Westbrook
posted by David Friedman @ 11:33 PM
8 Comments:
Both paragraphs are actually applicable. Westbrook is still a decent player, though no longer close to AS status but it'd be hard to find too many playoff teams where he'd be a starter. He wasn't even starting for the Lakers. The Clippers just have nothing at the PG position.
The Timberwolves also only had one day off before playing the Clippers, and this is standard throughout the season. Why is this little bit even necessary?
Anonymous:
Both paragraphs are factually accurate, but the first paragraph is slanted to advance a specific narrative. Do you think that the Clippers as presently constituted would give up 139 ppg over the course of an 82 game season? That number is skewed because it is from a small sample size that included one huge outlier (the double overtime game versus the Kings). Emphasizing Westbrook's point totals and turnovers while leaving out his assists and his effect on increasing the tempo is also slanted.
Westbrook wasn't starting for the Lakers because the Lakers' goal this season was to maximize LeBron's touches so that he could break Kareem's record. Westbrook operates best in an uptempo game, but GM/Coach/Player LeBron wanted to control tempo to maximize his personal scoring opportunities. It is amazing how LeBron allegedly played the whole season with a foot injury but now in what he called the most important games he is unable to play after breaking the scoring record.
Westbrook is still an All-Star caliber player. In the West, the current version of Westbrook would not start over Luka Doncic, Stephen Curry, and Ja Morant, but he would start for any of the other top eight teams. Also, keep in mind that just two seasons ago Westbrook averaged 22.2 ppg while leading the league with 11.7 apg and averaging 11.5 rpg (his record-breaking fourth season averaging a triple double). We don't know for sure that he could not do something similar now if given the opportunity, but even if we assume that given consistent starter's minutes he would "only" average something like 18-8-6 that is still better than most starting pgs.
My point regarding the Clippers only having one day off is that they have not had much practice time to integrate Westbrook into the team. You are correct that one day off is standard.
I don't know how to phrase this without it sounding more sarcastic than I intend it, but I'm sincerely asking: for a late-season trade like this, what sample size is large enough that we can start judging it?
Anonymous:
That is a reasonable question.
The Clippers are a team with championship aspirations and two max contract players (Kawhi Leonard and Paul George). Before Westbrook played for the Clippers, the Clippers were 33-28 and they had the fourth best record in the West, 1.5 games behind Sacramento and .5 games ahead of Phoenix. So, the Clippers were clinging to home court advantage in the first round, not running away with the West.
Westbrook can appear in a maximum of 21 regular season games for the Clippers this season. The first milestone I will look at is whether the Clippers' winning percentage in those 21 games is better or worse than .541 (i.e., better or worse than the equivalent of 33-28). I will also look at whether the Clippers moved up, moved down, or stayed in the fourth seed, while also taking into account that other teams made roster changes and got healthier (or less healthy, in some instances).
More importantly, I will look at how the Clippers perform in the playoffs, keeping in mind that this is the Clippers' fourth season with Leonard and the team has yet to advance past the second round.
Overall, after the playoffs are over I will look at not only how the Clippers finished but also how Westbrook performed individually. If he does what he is supposed to do, but the team falls off for other reasons then that is not his fault/responsibility.
The Clippers are 0-4 with Westbrook, and they are currently seventh in the West--but just two games out of fourth. Westbrook has been solid: 14.0 ppg, 8.5 apg, 4.3 rpg, shooting splits of .457/.286/1.000. Mathematically, the Clippers could realistically finish as high as fourth, or they could collapse and miss the Play-In Tournament. Is it fair to expect the Clippers to stay ahead of Phoenix after the Suns acquired Durant? That is also a factor in the analysis.
Jalen Rose made an excellent point: for the Clippers, Westbrook is not a max contract player, but rather a late season signing at the veteran's minimum, and so the value that he adds should be considered in that context. From that standpoint, the Clippers are obviously getting more production from Westbrook up to this point than one would expect from a player on a minimum contract.
The Clippers' poor defense recently is concerning. As Stan Van Gundy has repeatedly noted, this trend began before Westbrook's arrival; the healthier the Clippers became, the more that they seemed to rely on trying to outscore teams as opposed to focusing on getting stops. A team with Leonard and George on the wings, decent size up front, and good depth should not be struggling so much defensively.
I will evaluate all of these late season deals in the same way: not only is it too soon to judge the Clippers, it is too soon to evaluate Phoenix (Durant), Dallas (Irving), Lakers (collection of role players for Westbrook), and the Nets (collection of role players for Irving). That may not be the approach taken by the "Global Leader" and others, but that is my approach.
Is Westbrook's 0-15 in his last 15 starts the all-time record losing streak for a former MVP?
I know much of it isn't his fault, especially the 10 that came with the Lakers, but that is still a troubling number.
Anonymous:
That is a very artificial and random statistic. What is next--Westbrook's record on Wednesdays when there is a full moon?
Those 15 games are not consecutive--they are spread out over two seasons and two different teams, with no context regarding who played alongside Westbrook (GM/Coach/Player President LeBron James has missed a lot of games the past few seasons, as has Anthony "Street Clothes" Davis), and who the opponents were.
Westbrook's teams are 136-45 during his career (.751 winning percentage--equivalent to 62-20 for an 82 game season) when he posts a triple double, which suggests to me (1) he is not a "stat padder" because it is evident that many of his most productive games correlate with team success and (2) teams that put the ball in his hands and let him run the show do better than teams that are more focused on one player setting a career record than on team success.
It is also worth noting that every team that has parted ways with Westbrook thus far (OKC, Houston, Washington) has gotten worse without him. We shall see if the Lakers can break that trend.
I am more "troubled" by random numbers being taken out of context and treated seriously than I am about any particular random number.
Anticipating a possible response, of course I understand that the Clippers have not played well in their past five games. Westbrook has performed up to par, though, and the Clippers' losing streak is not his fault any more than it is the fault of every player in the rotation. It would help the Clippers if (1) Kawhi Leonard played more often and (2) if the team collectively played better defense.
There have been championship teams that had just been put together that started the season slowly even after having a whole training camp to work together. Westbrook just joined the Clippers after not playing at all for over two weeks, and the team has not had much practice time together. I think that the Clippers have the potential to be very dangerous, but I also think if they keep playing defense this poorly they could miss the playoffs altogether.
What I won't do is evaluate players or teams based on five games, or based on a random selection of 15 games. When I do a game recap, I am evaluating what happened in that particular game, and not necessarily assuming that this one game foreshadows glory (or doom), unless that one game is part of a pattern from a significant sample size of games.
For instance, we've seen enough of James Harden in the playoffs to know he goes on a "concert tour" (with field goal numbers that look like spring concert tour dates) in every postseason. So, the next time he does that it would be a continuation of a pattern dating back to his disappearing act in the 2012 NBA Finals, and not just an isolated game.
Hi David,
Interesting game last night. Curry was offensively electric and scored 50 but the small size of the Warriors lineup on the court meant they gave up even more points than they earned with all his heroics. They miss Andrew Wiggins very much.
The key for the Clippers is that their defense has improved a lot in the 4 past games. Westbrook struggled with his shot a bit last night but had an excellent floor game and grabbed 4 offensive rebounds. I think if they continue to play at this level they could at least make the Western Conference Finals.
Keith:
I agree that the Clippers have the potential to reach the WCF, but to accomplish that they will have to become much more consistent defensively.
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