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Monday, February 20, 2023

The 2023 NBA All-Star Game May Have Been the Worst Basketball Game Ever

The 2023 NBA All-Star Game was not only the worst NBA All-Star Game ever, but it may have been the worst basketball game ever "contested"--and I use that word with hesitation--by high level players. Denver Nuggets Coach Michael Malone, who coached Team LeBron, made this statement after Team Giannis prevailed 184-175: "It's an honor to be here, and it's an honor to be a part of a great weekend with great players, but it's the worst basketball game ever played." Malone also admitted that he has no idea how to fix the game.

The NBA All-Star Game began its horrific slide to irrelevance several years ago (see game recaps appended to this article for more details), but yesterday the league's showcase midseason event descended to a nadir from which there may be no recovery. 

At its best, NBA basketball is about the world's greatest athletes competing at a high level at both ends of the court while working together to help their team win. At its worst--and its worst was on full display last night--NBA basketball is about players flaunting their individual skills without any connection to team success while their "opponents" step aside and watch instead of competing on defense. The 2023 NBA All-Star Game was such an abomination that it is difficult to decide which moment was the worst. 

Maybe it was when eight players stood off to the side for multiple possessions so that Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown could play one on one. To be clear, this was not Magic Johnson near the end of his final All-Star Game with the outcome decided facing off against Isiah Thomas and Michael Jordan for brief one on one skirmishes that were loaded with meaning at a time when we were not sure how long Magic Johnson would live, let alone if he would ever play pro basketball again; this was two players stealing the show in the middle of the game with the outcome not decided, and with the amount of money that various charities would receive yet to be determined based on which team won. 

Maybe it was the times too numerous to count when one player drove down the lane and dunked with no defensive resistance.

Maybe it was the times too numerous to count when players jacked up half court shots--including several possessions at the end of the game when Team Giannis did not even need a three pointer to reach the target score. Why would a player shoot from half court when his team only needs two points, and when nobody has guarded the paint all night long? One time, 2023 All-Star Game MVP Jayson Tatum stepped out of bounds while stepping back to attempt a three pointer when his team only needed two points to win.

Kids are watching this trash and thinking that this is how basketball is supposed to be played: uncontested dunks followed up by half court shots. 

Anyone who wants to put "advanced basketball statistics"--with their emphasis on dunks and three pointers, and their abhorrence of the mid-range game--on trial for destroying the game that many of us know and love should just submit the 2023 All-Star Game telecast as Exhibit #1 and then move for summary judgment. "Advanced basketball statistics" have played a major role in destroying competition--think "load management," the ostracism of post play and the midrange game, and the overemphasis on dunks and three pointers to the exclusion of other shot types--while also taking the fun out of the game. Competition is fun. Running up and down the court without playing defense is not competition, and it is not fun to watch. There is a place and value for using various basketball statistics in an intelligent way, but the "stat gurus" have been given way too much power and way too much influence. Watch a tape of any All-Star Game from the 1980s or any NBA Finals from the 1980s, and judge for yourself if the game was better and more fun to watch then or now.

The league should be embarrassed as a whole, and each player should be embarrassed. Sport is about competition, not exhibition. If the NBA is unwilling or unable to restore the All-Star Game to what it can and should be, at a minimum the NBA's official records should distinguish between statistics posted when the All-Star Game mattered and statistics posted when the All-Star Game became a farce, a sham, and a travesty.

Usually in a game recap, I cite individual statistics but yesterday's game was such a travesty that I refuse to give any publicity to the individual statistics other than to insist that the "All-Star Game record" 55 points that Jayson Tatum scored are only slightly more meaningful than 55 points that any of us could score while shooting uncontested shots in our driveways or at our local recreation center. 

The All-Star Game scoring record should still be the 42 points Wilt Chamberlain scored in the 1962 All-Star Game. The inflated scoring totals posted by various players in the past several All-Star Games--during which the league abandoned the traditional East-West format and tampered with various rules in a futile attempt to persuade the players to actually at least pretend to compete for a few moments--belong in the fiction section of a library or bookstore, not in the NBA record book. Tatum, who I respect greatly for his regular season and playoff performances, did not score his 2023 All-Star points under the same conditions or rules that existed for Chamberlain and the other great players from the past several decades.

The decline and fall of the NBA All-Star Game has transpired for several years, and there may be no way to rescue one of the league's marquee events. Julius Erving eloquently described the problem as far back as 2006, at a time when the All-Star Game still had some semblance of competitiveness but was already heading in the wrong direction:

Today's game, some of these All-Star Games, players have figured out a way to allow guys to dunk the ball and not have it perceived as the guy dunking on somebody. When I was coming up, you rarely could dunk on people and people did not want to get dunked on, it was almost like being 'posterized' if somebody dunked on you. Guys tried their best not to let anybody dunk on them. Sometimes they would just grab you rather than let you dunk. That seems to be lost somewhere in what I see with a lot of the high wire act performances. It is almost like, 'I'm going to let the guy dunk. And I'm going to get far enough out of the picture so nobody is perceiving this as me being dunked on or being posterized.' I don't understand the mentality of just letting a guy go in there and throw it down and applauding it, if he's wearing a different colored uniform. It's just playing to the crowd but I think that the crowd would respect and appreciate a play being made when somebody is trying to contest it. I think it makes for a great photo-op and a great poster if somebody is there. I remember being in Madison Square Garden and going up for a dunk and Lonnie Shelton was there and my knees were up on his shoulders. He was trying to draw a charge, I guess. Looking at that shot, when somebody is there, it is poetry in motion. Just throwing the ball up and going through the motions, I guess guys don't want to get hurt. I like watching the dunk contests--but I don't like a game to turn into a dunk contest with no defense. That does nothing for me. 

In the 2023 NBA All-Star Game, the teams combined to jack up 126 three pointers while attempting just four free throws. The league should just get rid of the All-Star Game, and replace it with a one hour show during which each player selected as an All-Star is provided with 90 seconds or two minutes to go on the court and do whatever uncontested dunks, three point shots, and fancy dribbling he would like to show off so that fans will buy his new signature sneakers. That is what the All-Star Game is about now, so the NBA should just be honest about that and stop pretending that this is actually any semblance of a competitive game between two teams trying to win.

Recent NBA All-Star Game Recaps:

NBA Formally Honors the 75th Anniversary Team, Stephen Curry Wins the All-Star Game MVP (2022)

"How much has the All-Star Game devolved from an actual competition featuring the league's best players to an exhibition of players demonstrating individual skills devoid of competition or team play? Free throws are a quick way to gauge physicality/defense. The 2022 All-Star Game included eight fouls, four of which were called in the fourth quarter, and Team LeBron shot 2-2 from the free throw line while Team Durant shot 7-7 from the free throw line. This season, NBA teams average a little over 21 free throw attempts per game, so it is obvious that the All-Star Game featured few fouls, few free throws, very little physicality, and token defense compared to a normal NBA game.

All-Star Games used to be played much differently. In the first NBA All-Star Game, the East beat the West 98-93 in overtime in 1954 with the East shooting 36 of 44 from the free throw line and the West shooting 17-26 from the free throw line. In 1962, Wilt Chamberlain set an All-Star single game scoring record (42 points) that stood for 55 years. Chamberlain shot 8-16 from the free throw line, and his East squad shot 24-43 from the free throw line. The West, which won 150-130, shot 36-51 from the free throw line. Chamberlain's scoring record took place during a competitive game, and the record stood until long after NBA All-Star Games ceased to be competitive; his record is so exceptional that even in an era during which it is much easier to score in All-Star Games only two players have surpassed the standard that he set--and Curry did so by making a bunch of uncontested three pointers.

For most of All-Star Game history, players from both sides played hard, played defense, and committed a normal amount of fouls. Things began to change in 2007, when the victorious West only attempted nine free throws and the East only attempted 13 free throws, a big decline from 24 and 28 respectively in the 2006 All-Star Game. The 2008 All-Star Game was more of the same. Matters improved a bit during the next several All-Star Games, but in 2014 the East attempted nine free throws and the West attempted 12 free throws. Since 2014, single digit free throw attempts per team have been the norm rather than the exception--and on the rare occasion that a team has attempted more than 10 free throws most of those free throw attempts have happened in the fourth quarter, when the new scoring rules inspire (or shame) the All-Stars into playing some defense."

Giannis Antetokounmpo Wins All-Star MVP With Perfect Shooting, Leads Team LeBron to 170-150 Win Over Team Durant (2021)

"Giannis Antetokounmpo did not have the first perfect shooting performance in NBA All-Star Game history--Hal Greer shot 8-8 from the field en route to scoring 21 points and winning the 1968 NBA All-Star Game MVP--but he set the NBA All-Star Game record for most field goals without a miss (16), and he captured his first All-Star Game MVP by scoring a game-high 35 points as his Team LeBron routed Team Durant, 170-150. Antetokounmpo played just 19 minutes, so he scored nearly two points per minute. Most of Antetokounmpo's shots were lightly contested--if not uncontested--dunks, but he also shot 3-3 from three point range. Each team shot 3-5 from the free throw line as both teams spent most of the game not even pretending to care about defense. Perhaps the league and/or the players think that the fans want to see uncontested dunks and wide open three pointers, but I think/hope that true basketball fans want to see competition. A contested dunk is a great play; an uncontested dunk is just performance art."

Kawhi Leonard Leads Team LeBron to 157-155 Win over Team Giannis as New Format Results in Exciting Fourth Quarter Competition (2020)

"After three quarters, it seemed that the new NBA All-Star Game format had not inspired many players from either team to even pretend to play at a fraction of their full capabilities. Fortunately, the fourth quarter--a race to 157 points based on adding 24 points (in honor of Kobe Bryant) to the 133-124 lead enjoyed by Team Giannis over Team LeBron at the end of the third quarter--featured high level play as both teams looked fully engaged: Team Giannis' Kyle Lowry seemed to try to take a charge on every defensive possession, players from both teams contested almost every shot, and the level of physicality ramped up to top notch regular season levels, if not even first round playoff levels.

It is mystifying that most NBA players seem to need external motivation to play their best in the All-Star Game, but with a substantial portion of the weekend's festivities dedicated to the memory of Bryant--including naming the All-Star MVP award for him--it would have been a travesty for the players to just sleepwalk through the entire proceedings. Kawhi Leonard is a pioneer of the less than commendable load management scourge, but at least he always plays hard when he is on the court. Leonard scored a game-high 30 points on 11-18 field goal shooting (including 8-14 from three point range), grabbed seven rebounds, dished for four assists, and received the first Kobe Bryant All-Star Game MVP Award as his Team LeBron won, 157-155."

Kevin Durant Wins his Second All-Star MVP as Team LeBron Overcomes 20 Point Deficit to Defeat Team Giannis, 178-164 (2019)

"The All-Star Game sunk to such depths a few years ago that there were even whispers that it might be discontinued. Instead, the league changed the format from East versus West to a format in which the top two vote-getters conduct a draft consisting of a pool of other All-Stars selected by fans, coaches and media members. LeBron James faced off against Giannis Antetokounmpo in this year's All-Star draft. Popular consensus was that James, whose draft strategy seemed to be focused on acquiring every major player who will be a free agent soon, got the better of Antetokounmpo--but it did not look like that initially, as Team Giannis led 53-37 after the first quarter and 95-82 at halftime. Antetokounmpo scored a game-high 38 points on 17-23 field goal shooting, including 10 dunks. He also had 11 rebounds and five assists. He set the tone in the first quarter with 16 points. Antetokounmpo's Milwaukee teammate/All-Star teammate Khris Middleton added 20 points on 7-13 field goal shooting, including 6-10 from three point range. Middleton scored 12 first quarter points.

To coin--or repeat--a phrase, it seemed like Team LeBron was in 'chill mode' during the first half, but in the second half they exerted at least some defensive effort and they rained down a barrage of three pointers. Team LeBron outscored Team Giannis 96-69 in the second half while shooting 22-49 from three point range. The teams combined to attempt 167 three pointers during the game, compared to 108 two pointers attempted.

Kevin Durant earned MVP honors by scoring 31 points on 10-15 field goal shooting (including 6-9 from three point range) while also contributing seven rebounds. He had 11 points on 4-4 field goal shooting in the fourth quarter. Durant's Golden State teammate Klay Thompson finished second on Team LeBron with 20 points on 7-16 field goal shooting (6-12 from three point range) and he had eight rebounds and four assists as well."

LeBron James Earns Third All-Star Game MVP as Team LeBron Outlasts Team Stephen, 148-145 (2018):

"LeBron James scored a game-high 29 points on 12-17 field goal shooting, grabbed a game-high tying 10 rebounds and dished eight assists as Team LeBron defeated Team Stephen 148-145 in the first year of the NBA's new All-Star selection format; instead of the traditional matchup featuring the Eastern Conference facing the Western Conference, a team of All-Stars picked by LeBron James faced a team of All-Stars picked by Stephen Curry. The NBA tweaked the All-Star Game in the wake of several subpar All-Star Games, culminating in last year's farce.

Before the 2018 All-Star Game, James already held the NBA All-Star Game career scoring record (314 points) and yesterday he surpassed Julius Erving (321 points) to set the record for most points scored in ABA and NBA All-Star Games combined. Bob Pettit (1956, 58, 59, 62) and Kobe Bryant (2002, 2007, 2009, 2011) share the record with four All-Star Game MVPs each, while James joined Oscar Robertson, Michael Jordan and Shaquille O'Neal as three-time winners; James previously earned the All-Star Game MVP in 2006 and 2008."

The NBA All-Star Game Has Become a Farce (2017):

"The Western Conference's 192-182 victory over the Eastern Conference is without question the worst NBA All-Star Game that I have ever watched. Other than the MLB All-Star Game that ended in a tie (and many NFL Pro Bowls of recent vintage) it may be the worst major professional league All-Star Game ever. When the reigning two-time regular season MVP literally lies down on the court instead of attempting to play defense, you know that the event has jumped the shark."

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posted by David Friedman @ 11:00 AM

15 comments

15 Comments:

At Monday, February 20, 2023 11:14:00 AM, Anonymous Eric said...

David,

Longtime reader since 2009 here. I’ve read your posts and thoroughly enjoyed your analysis and takes throughout the years. I only tuned into this year’s contest because of the live draft, but that couldn’t even remotely save what was an utter abomination of a game we witnessed shortly after. As great as social media has expanded coverage of the game, I also blame it heavily for allowing any fan to engage with the players. I think today’s players have become so guarded and self-conscious about their online image (i.e., getting crossed over, getting dunked on) that they would rather avoid confrontation/competition with their own peers in such a setting. The late Kobe Bryant would be appalled at such disastrous conditions that were on display last night. This ASG as you have said has become more than a farce. Commissioner Silver should be embarrassed for what he has done to what used to be a scintillating weekend.

 
At Monday, February 20, 2023 3:44:00 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I agree with a lot of this. Not sure if advanced stats are to blame on this one -- the game just doesn't mean much to the players anymore, and this is true with All-Star games in all leagues. Personally I'd rather sit through bad All-Star games for the rest of my life than have another Pete Rose/Ray Fosse moment that ends a promising career.

I honestly think the solution is to do what the NFL did by turning the Pro Bowl into a flag football game and lean into the exhibition nature of the thing. Turning the ASG back into what it was is as inconceivable as having the league's top players competing in the dunk contest again, which is tough to blame on advanced statistics.

As it is, I honestly have no idea how to judge what happened. Tatum (a Kobe disciple), decided to play hard and got 55. Should we chide him for being "a looter in a riot" or at least acknowledge he was out there doing something?

Joel Embiid and Nikola Jokic are in an MVP race. The former was featured and the latter barely contributed. In the past this would have been a good litmus test, but now? Whatever.

LeBron had his "Pete Rose moment" when he blocked SGA's dunk attempt, which the latter took issue with. LeBron had plenty of ASG duels with Kobe, so I would imagine the game still means a lot to him. I believe he even injured himself during the game, and if I'm being honest, I would be disappointed if he misses any of the stretch run because he overexerted himself in this farce.

I can't help but be pessimistic about the future of this game. It's no longer part of my personal DVR list, and I doubt it will be again.

 
At Monday, February 20, 2023 5:17:00 PM, Blogger David Friedman said...

Eric:

Thank you for being a long-time reader and commenter.

You are correct that Commissioner Silver shoulders a lot of the responsibility for this, but the players should have more intrinsic pride.

Social media--or how the players engage with and react to social media--may play a role, but I think that people are either competitive or they are not competitive. Many NBA players seem to have a sense of entitlement and satisfaction after they reach the league, as opposed to feeling a desire or need to compete hard all of the time.

 
At Monday, February 20, 2023 5:33:00 PM, Blogger David Friedman said...

Anonymous:

The role that "advanced basketball statistics" play in negatively impacting the NBA is connected with not understanding anything that cannot be quantified in a very specific, narrow way. So, coaching, chemistry, and competitiveness do not register with "stat gurus" because those things are difficult or impossible to quantify. Winning individual games does not matter--"stat gurus" are big proponents of tanking and load management. Having a well-rounded offensive game does not matter--to a "stat guru," an ideal shot chart only contains dunks and three pointers (plus free throws, but free throws have all but vanished from the All-Star Game because shots are rarely contested).

Add all of that up, and you get the travesty that we saw last night, which is just an exaggerated version of the direction toward which the regular season games are heading: we see tanking, load management, dunks, "logo" three pointers, and a lack of respect for (or even understanding of) coaching, chemistry, and competitiveness.

The Rose-Fosse situation was a fluke. The MLB and NBA All-Star games were played at a good competitive level for several decades, and injuries were rare.

I can't blame Tatum for scoring uncontested baskets if the baskets are there for the taking, but I can blame him for shooting long three pointers at the end of the game when his team only needed two points to win. Lillard doing that is one thing--that is his deal, and most years he is not on a team that is competing to win anything, so he is accustomed to jacking up long shots in meaningless games--but Tatum has higher aspirations and claims to model himself after Kobe, so with the game on the line he should have driven to the hoop and dunked.

LeBron did not compete hard on defense on most possessions--in other words, he treated the All-Star Game like he has treated most games in recent years--so it is ironic that he injured his hand playing defense. I hope that he is not seriously injured (and I doubt that he is seriously injured), and I can't read his mind, but I think that he decided that it would look good to get one chase down dunk in a game that otherwise would be devoid of defense; he probably figured that play would be featured on SportsCenter with Windhorst, McMenamin, and the rest of his fan club singing his praises, and after avoiding injury for most of his career he would not have expected to get hurt while playing defense on one possession. I realize that it may sound odd to criticize LeBron even when he seemed to be doing the right thing by playing defense, but I am basing my suppositions on his body of work--particularly with the Lakers--and not just on this one game. LeBron chases stats and he chases favorable publicity, so I am suspicious of a player who does not play much defense suddenly deciding to play defense. I also think that he assumed that he could catch his opponent by surprise since (1) he is not playing much defense any more and (2) no one was contesting any shots in the All-Star Game.

 
At Monday, February 20, 2023 10:20:00 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

There is a lot of room for things to get worse.

Not so much in the ASG, which has been completely ruined, but with the game as a whole.

The regular season right now is where the ASG game was 25-30 years ago.

We touched on this a few weeks ago when LeBron broke the all-time scoring record -- there isn't all that much defense being played in the regular season any more, which has inflated scoring artificially.

But it isn't just because of the rule changes. Teams are not taking the regular season seriously in general. This season no team is on track to reach 60 wins. Because why exert the effort to do that? There is no point. It is enough to get in the playoffs, and that has never been easier.

It used be at least that there was a real fight to get in the playoffs, but the league decided to squeeze a bit more revenue out of the sport by adding the play-in tournament games and that move killed that incentive. You can get in the playoffs as the 10th team in the conference, and you are not guaranteed to get in as the 7th. So it is enough to hang around the 7-10th spot if you have no chance to be one of the top teams. Meanwhile nearly everyone below 10th is probably tanking on purpose and has no interest in getting to that 10th spot anyway.

"Load management", reduced minutes for star players, and everything else of the sort fits within that context too.

Expect that trend to continue and the regular season to become ever more meaningless and boring. The league will compensate by ramping up the spectacle factor -- as long as there are enough highlight dunks and bombs from half court to keep people interested, there will be no issue from the point of view of the owners.

But that will not change the fact that meaningful basketball will only be played in the playoffs.

And not even always there -- there has been this lingering suspicion in recent years that teams that go up 3-0 deliberately lose the fourth game instead of sweeping, in order to ensure another home game and more revenue for the francise....

 
At Monday, February 20, 2023 10:47:00 PM, Blogger David Friedman said...

Anonymous:

I share your concern that things may become a lot worse in the regular season.

It is unfortunate that the regular season has been progressively watered down--by rules changes favoring the offense, by load management, and by "stat gurus" who are trying to get rid of post up play and the midrange game--and I agree with you about the downside of creating the Play-In Tournament. The idea behind the Play-In Tournament was that this would prevent some of the lower level teams from tanking because they still would have a chance to qualify for the playoffs (and thus receive playoff revenue) but I agree with you that for teams outside of the top four there is not a huge difference between finishing fifth and 10th; those teams are not likely to go very far in the playoffs, so they can still do load management and rest players who fans paid a lot of money to see in person.

I am not sure that teams that are up 3-0 lose deliberately. I think that it is tough to sweep a team, and that it is natural to have a bit of a letdown with a 3-0 lead. I'd need to see some evidence before I buy that claim--but the regular season problems are plain as day, and there is a ton of evidence regarding not only what is wrong but how we reached this point (and I have been writing about these issues for many years).

 
At Tuesday, February 21, 2023 7:36:00 AM, Blogger Keith said...

Not sure what all this "load management" is supposed to accomplish if players are getting injured more than ever anyway. 2021 was a record season in terms of major player injuries. I've heard all sorts of excuses related to this, namely that the game is faster than it used to be (it is actually slower in terms of pace than the 80s and 70s) or that for some reason defensive close-outs are more physically demanding than they used to be, but I don't buy it.

 
At Tuesday, February 21, 2023 9:39:00 AM, Blogger David Friedman said...

Keith:

It is odd that, despite the prevalence of load management, players are getting injured at such a high rate.

 
At Tuesday, February 21, 2023 9:33:00 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

>I've heard all sorts of excuses related to this, namely that the game is faster than it used to be (it is actually slower in terms of pace than the 80s and 70s) or that for some reason defensive close-outs are more physically demanding than they used to be, but I don't buy it

There was an extensive article some time ago showing how players enter the league already with a huge amount of miles on their bodies and serious chronic injuries, through playing way too much competitive games with no time for recovery in their teens.

So this is one factor.

Second factor is probably PEDs -- there is certainly way more of that now than ever. And while some PEDs help with injuries (e.g. HGH) -- others have the opposite effect (e.g. steroids).

A third factor, specific to the last three years, is that now you have many players on their second and third round of COVID, and that will being to take its toll sooner or later, even though these are some of the lowest risk people on the planet.

 
At Tuesday, February 21, 2023 10:30:00 PM, Blogger David Friedman said...

Anonymous:

It may be true that at least some NBA players--the ones who are identified early as being very talented, and thus funneled into the travel team circuit--play too often too soon, which may make them more injury-prone later. However, in the old days, players used to play all day long on concrete playgrounds--which would be less forgiving to the body than the indoor gyms players use today--and players seemed to be less injury-prone than they are now (though it is possible that medical diagnosis was not as advanced and/or players just kept playing even though they were injured).

I am not sure how prevalent PEDs are in the NBA. It is reasonable to assume that they are more prevalent than they used to be, but I have not seen any evidence proving this.

It is very speculative to assert that (1) "many players (are) on their second and third round of COVID"--that may be true, but there is no evidence supporting that statement--and that (2) players who have had multiple bouts of COVID are more injury-prone. There is just not enough evidence to prove (or disprove) those assertions. It is reasonable to assume that NBA players, based on their youth and their superior conditioning, are less prone to suffer whatever side effects result from having multiple bouts of COVID. Also, there are many prominent injury-prone players who were injury-prone prior to the COVID-19 pandemic (Joel Embiid immediately comes to mind).

 
At Wednesday, February 22, 2023 5:24:00 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

You have an odd thing where you never quite commit to what you are saying. Does load management lead to fewer injuries or longer careers, or does it not? In the case of the latter, why have teams implemented it?

 
At Wednesday, February 22, 2023 7:54:00 PM, Blogger David Friedman said...

Anonymous:

It would be interesting if you could cite a specific example of me not quite committing to what I am saying.

Load management is a relatively recent phenomenon--particularly in terms of being widespread, as opposed to being used by just a few teams for a few players--so I doubt that there is definitive evidence proving whether or not it prevents injuries and lengthens careers. Teams have implemented load management because they have bought into various types of analytics, some of which have more credibility than others.

I oppose load management the way that it is used now because it violates the competitive principles upon which sports should be based, and because it rips off the paying customers. Teams should be trying to win every game that they play, and teams should be providing maximum value to paying customers. Teams that tank and teams that load manage are not putting their best product on the court for every game. If the league's response to that is that the league has data proving that load management is necessary for player safety, my response to that is simple: shorten the season until it is safe for uninjured players to play in every game. Of course, the NBA will not do that because such an action would cost them millions--if not billions--of dollars in TV revenue, ticket revenue, sponsorship revenue, etc.

To the extent that careers are longer today than they were in the past, I would argue that is a result of better medical care, better diet, and better training techniques as opposed to being the result of healthy players deliberately sitting out games.

 
At Thursday, February 23, 2023 1:01:00 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Also, I asked you three questions. Two were of the yes/no variety. You failed to answer the first (does load management lead to fewer injuries?), hedged extremely when you answered the second ("I would argue that..."), and for the third question you went to your boogeyman, "analytics." Which types of analytics? Why would a team "buy into" analytics if they were false? These are billion-dollar businesses, are journalists really that compelling? What are some examples of a team gaining a market advantage because they go against the grain and "refuse" analytics?

 
At Thursday, February 23, 2023 1:58:00 PM, Blogger David Friedman said...

Anonymous:

Just because your simplistic understanding of issues leads you to believe that you asked "yes/no" questions does not mean that you are correct or that my answers "hedged."

As I explained, there is not sufficient data to prove whether or not load management leads to fewer injuries. The best answer to your question is, "We don't know."

My objection to load management is, as I stated above, "It violates the competitive principles upon which sports should be based, and because it rips off the paying customers" without any demonstrated injury prevention benefit. As I said, if load management is truly necessary for player safety, then the NBA should just shorten the season accordingly, and that would solve the problem without violating competitive principles and ripping off the paying customers.

I noticed that you failed to acknowledge, let alone address, the substantive points that I made.

To become better informed about some of the analytics that various teams are using, and why those analytics are not credible, I would suggest reading any of the numerous articles that I have written on this subject for the past 20 years or so. If you don't know how to do a basic search of the website, you can just consult the section of the right hand sidebar labeled "Advanced Basketball Statistics." I don't write about "boogeymen." I present facts and evidence, and I offer my informed opinions about the facts and evidence that I presented. If you feel up to offering specific refutations of anything that I have written, go for it. Even better, use your real name when you comment, so we can know what qualifications and writing experience you bring to the table.

Do you believe that all billion dollar businesses are flawless in their decision making? Have you ever read the cartoon Dilbert that lampoons the inefficiencies and nonsense that permeate corporate decision making?

Regarding examples of teams going against the grain, many "stat gurus" insist that the most important thing in today's game is pace and space/three point shooting. I insist that defense, rebounding, and interior play are crucial for winning championships, and I have written numerous articles demonstrating that the teams that win championships excel at defense, rebounding, and interior play (even if the media narratives about those teams suggest otherwise).

I think that intelligent use of statistics is very important and valuable. I have cited Dan Rosenbaum as an example of someone who intelligently uses basketball statistics. Rosenbaum also has a keen understanding of the limitations of statistical analysis, and he has publicly criticized "stat gurus" such as Dave Berri who lack such understanding and impartiality.

I've been writing about these issues for 20 years, and my work is all contained in this website, so I am not sure why you seem to expect me to summarize my findings in one comment. There is a reason that I don't use Twitter.

If you are truly seeking knowledge, the information is here and I am happy to help. If you are just interested in being an anonymous troll with snarky remarks, I won't engage with you any further.

 
At Monday, March 06, 2023 2:52:00 PM, Blogger David Friedman said...

It should go without saying--but I will say it anyway, to make things perfectly clear--that the above reference to the Dilbert cartoon is specifically about the content of the Dilbert cartoon, and is not an endorsement of anything else that Scott Adams has said or supports. I referenced Dilbert only to make the point that it should be obvious that multi-billion dollar businesses are not immune from making poor decisions that lack grounding in logic or reason.

 

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