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Sunday, May 28, 2023

Celtics Beat Heat in Game Six on Derrick White's Buzzer Beating Putback

Derrick White tipped in Marcus Smart's missed desperation three pointer as time expired, lifting the Boston Celtics to a 104-103 win and forcing a game seven on Monday that seemed improbable less than a week ago when Miami humiliated Boston 128-102 to take a 3-0 series lead. Jayson Tatum scored a game-high 31 points, grabbed a team-high 12 rebounds, and dished for five assists. This was his fourth 30-10 performance in an elimination game, breaking a tie with Larry Bird and Kevin McHale for the most such games in Celtics history. Tatum shot 8-22 from the field, but he made all 15 of his free throws. Tatum's size and versatility have been key for the Celtics in their three wins. Jaylen Brown had 26 points, 10 rebounds, and three assists. Marcus Smart added 21 points on 7-15 field goal shooting, including 4-11 from three point range (the shot that is often available when the Heat's zone defense tilts toward Tatum's paint attacks). White had 11 points and a team-high six assists. 

Butler had a team-high 24 points, plus 11 rebounds, and eight assists, but he shot just 5-21 from the field. He made three straight free throws with 3.0 seconds left in the fourth quarter to provide what would have been the winning margin had White not scored at the buzzer. Butler scored 15 fourth quarter points on 3-5 field goal shooting and 8-10 free throw shooting, but the Heat need for him to be that aggressive in seeking out his shot for the whole game; TNT's Stan Van Gundy mentioned that at times Butler seemed intimidated by Boston's size. Caleb Martin had 21 points and a game-high 15 rebounds. Gabe Vincent scored 15 points but he shot just 6-18 from the field, and he had no assists in 41 minutes. Duncan Robinson scored 13 points off of the bench. Bam Adebayo had 11 points, 13 rebounds, and five assists, but he shot just 4-16 from the field.

Aesthetically, this game was not pretty--but it was beautiful from the standpoint of two teams playing hard, and of two teams playing physical basketball in an elimination game. The Celtics shot .436 from the field, including .200 from three point range--their worst long distance shooting percentage in any game this season. The Heat shot even worse from the field (.355), but they shot 14-30 (.467) on three pointers. Each team had 47 rebounds. The Celtics made six more free throws (29-23), but the Heat committed seven fewer turnovers (12-5). The Celtics won despite their poor shooting because they attacked the paint on offense, and they defended the paint well on defense. Although the statistics and the final score indicate that this was a closely contested game, the reality is that the Celtics led from the 3:18 mark in the first quarter until Butler's tip in put the Heat up 83-82 with 7:57 remaining in the fourth quarter. A furious fourth quarter rally by the Heat--keyed by Butler--put the outcome in doubt, but it would be wrong to say that the Celtics won just because of a lucky play: if anything, the Heat were fortunate to even have a chance to win at the end after being outplayed for most of the game.

It would also be wrong to say that the Heat had a defensive breakdown on the final possession; as Heat Coach Erik Spoelstra explained in his postgame press conference, the Heat's defense on the fateful final inbounds play was designed to deny an easy pass to Tatum, and the Heat accomplished this by having Max Strus overplay Tatum. That gave White a path to the offensive boards, but only a perfect bounce right to White could have hurt Miami in the compressed time frame of that play--and that is what happened. If the Heat could choose Boston's final shot off of an inbounds play, a contested three pointer by Smart would be their choice over a shot by Tatum. 

If this series had reached a 3-3 tie by a different path, the narrative would be about two well-coached teams that play hard battling to a standoff, with the Celtics having game seven at home based on being the more consistent team over the 82 game regular season schedule--but because Miami won three games in a row before Boston won three games in a row, we have been subjected to idiots calling for Boston Coach Joe Mazzulla to be fired, and those same idiots will probably pontificate about all of the alleged "adjustments" the Celtics made to get back in the series; as I have discussed repeatedly, in-game "adjustments"--and "adjustments" in general--are overrated and overemphasized by people who don't understand the NBA game. The reality is that the Heat--who had the best record in the Eastern Conference last season, when they reached the Eastern Conference Finals--are capable of playing better than their regular season record suggests, and they played harder than the Celtics for the first three games, but the Celtics' best game is better than the Heat's best game, so the Celtics have more of a margin for error if both teams play hard. "Playing harder" is Jeff Van Gundy's favorite "adjustment."

The Celtics are just the fourth team to tie a series 3-3 after trailing 3-0, but the Celtics are the first of those four teams to have the benefit of playing game seven at home. The Celtics enter the series finale with confidence based on (1) being the better team on paper, (2) winning the three most recent games in this series, and (3) enjoying matchup advantages at both ends of the court because of their size and versatility--but the Heat enter the series finale with confidence based on (1) being good enough to beat the Celtics in the first three games of this series (including the first two games in Boston), (2) having a great closer in Jimmy Butler, and (3) having great team unity forged by belief in the coaching staff's game plans (overall strategy, not "adjustments") and belief in each other. In short, it is fair for an objective observer to state that game six at home was Miami's game seven (their best chance to win this series), but it is also reasonable for the Heat to subjectively feel confident even if the objective reality suggests that the Celtics should be favored in game seven.

I picked Boston to win this series, and even though I understood that a Boston victory was unlikely after the Celtics fell into a 3-0 hole I also felt that if the Celtics played like they did in their game four victory then Boston is capable of becoming the first NBA team to win a playoff series after trailing 3-0.

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posted by David Friedman @ 2:56 AM

5 comments

5 Comments:

At Sunday, May 28, 2023 7:41:00 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Why didn't they guard the inbounds passer? Smart had a very good look, nearly went down. Good D on passer likely means Tatum gets pass near half-court w 3 seconds left; or else pass is deflected to end game

 
At Sunday, May 28, 2023 10:55:00 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

"It would also be wrong to say that the Heat had a defensive breakdown on the final possession; as Heat Coach Erik Spoelstra explained in his postgame press conference, the Heat's defense on the fateful final inbounds play was designed to deny an easy pass to Tatum, and the Heat accomplished this by having Max Strus overplay Tatum. That gave White a path to the offensive boards, but only a perfect bounce right to White could have hurt Miami in the compressed time frame of that play--and that is what happened. If the Heat could choose Boston's final shot off of an inbounds play, a contested three pointer by Smart would be their choice over a shot by Tatum."

--> but, further to my earlier comment today, not all shots are created equal. Tatum's shot would've been much longer. And Smart's shot wasn't heavily contested -- and nearly went in. I'm NOT faulting Miami for the flukish bounce and putback, but instead for allowing an uncontested inbounds pass. If they contest the inbounds pass by guarding the passer, there are so many opportunities for a turnover or deflection that runs out the clock, or even a slightly-errant pass that takes time for the offensive player to gather, which runs out most of the clock; and, in Boston's best-case scenario, Tatum likely gets the ball with very little time to shoot -- and burns time getting off a shot, thereby taking away the possibility of a putback. Most likely, Tatum takes a very long, contested 3; and if he misses the game is over. Tatum may be their best player, but he's not their only player; this is not Steph Curry at Davidson, where the dropoff from best player to second best is massive. Besides leaving Smart open, Miami also left Brown open. Seems to me you want to put pressure on the inbounds passer, who already has the weight of the game on his shoulders. think of Duke-Kentucky when Kentucky let G Hill throw the inbounds pass to Laettner unguarded; how did that work out for them? in the half-court, with a defender jumping and waiving arms and legs, the inbounds passer has limited options. almost reminds me of the Seahawks pass play into traffic at the end of the Super Bowl; doing a massive favor for the opponent

 
At Sunday, May 28, 2023 7:35:00 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

David,

I always thought that one of the more impressive aspects of Borg's defeat of McEnroe at Wimbledon in 1980 was the fact that he lost that fourth set tiebreaker 18-16 in heartbreaking fashion. All those match points lost! Yet he regrouped and won that fifth set 6-4. Yeah, the Celtics are a bit better than the Heat and they're playing at home, but anything can happen so long as the Heat keep up morale and don't get caught up in the we-were-point-one-second-away-from-the-Finals syndrome. (Easy for me to say.) I'm also thinking about how the Spurs almost beat the Heat in Game 7 after Ray Allen hit that three to win Game 6. I give the slight edge to the Celtics but the Heat have an excellent chance!

 
At Sunday, May 28, 2023 10:32:00 PM, Blogger David Friedman said...

Anonymous:

Smart shot a contested turnaround three pointer with his team down by one point. If you think that is "a very good look" then you and I have very different definitions of what constitutes "a very good look."

 
At Sunday, May 28, 2023 10:38:00 PM, Blogger David Friedman said...

Anonymous:

If the Heat had not played ball denial defense against Tatum then we don't know if the resulting Tatum shot would have been from a longer distance than the shot Smart took. Spoelstra is one of the greatest coaches of all-time, he has faced Tatum and the Celtics many times, and he determined that his team's best chance to win was to deny Tatum a chance to catch the ball at all. I can't say that was a bad strategic decision.

Whenever Hubie Brown provides commentary about this kind of end of game situation, he always starts with, "It depends on the philosophy of the coaching staff" in terms of whether you pressure the inbounds passer or instead try to deny a particular player the opportunity to catch the ball anywhere. I would add (and Brown adds as well) that the decision is also influenced by the skill sets of the 10 players on the court; there is not one strategic choice that fits all situations.

Regarding the Hill play, you could make a case there for pressuring Hill, but I would note (1) that Hill is 6-8 and likely could have seen over whoever pressured him and (2) the idea of bracketing Laettner front and back made sense but perhaps was not executed as well as it could have been. Without knowing the capabilities of each Kentucky player and what inbounds defenses they practiced all season long I cannot say for sure what they should have done.

My main point is that I don't believe that there is a one size fits all answer here. Pressuring the passer makes sense in some situations, but not every situation.

 

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