Haliburton Dissects Bucks, Leads Pacers to NBA Cup Championship Game
Tyrese Haliburton showed the Milwaukee Bucks what time it is--and it was not "Dame Time" after Haliburton hit a dagger three pointer to put his Indiana Pacers up 122-114 with 49 seconds remaining in the fourth quarter en route to a 128-119 Indiana win that qualified the Pacers for the NBA Cup Championship Game. Haliburton pointed to his wrist after making the shot in an obvious reference to Damian Lillard's signature taunt, and all the Bucks could do was fly back home from Las Vegas thinking about what could have been. Haliburton scored a team-high 27 points on 11-19 field goal shooting, dished for a game-high 15 assists, grabbed seven rebounds, and did not commit a turnover in 37 minutes while outplaying the highly decorated Lillard. Myles Turner (26 points, 10 rebounds) also had a strong performance, and Obi Tobbin added 14 points on 6-8 field goal shooting in just 21 minutes.
Giannis Antetokounmpo dominated the paint with 37 points on 13-19 field goal shooting, 10 rebounds, and two blocked shots, and Lillard added 24 points, seven assists, and seven rebounds, but Lillard shot just 7-20 from the field. Lillard had 16 points on 4-5 field goal shooting in the third quarter, but he was invisible (eight points on 3-15 field goal shooting) for the rest of the game. The Bucks are one of the NBA's handful of "championship or bust" teams, and this season is going to be a bust for them if Lillard disappears for most of the game on offense; he spends the whole game unable to guard a tree stump, so if he does not have a big impact on offense then the Bucks are playing four on five. The Bucks won the 2021 NBA title with a big team that attacked the paint on offense and protected the paint on defense; that is a high percentage, time-tested way to win at an elite level, but relying too much on an undersized guard who jacks up long range shots and is a negative on defense is a high variance, time-tested way to lose early in the playoffs. I still believe in the Bucks' potential to be a championship caliber team because of Antetokounmpo's greatness, but the Bucks need more consistency from Lillard on offense and more effort from him on defense, plus high level production from Brook Lopez and Khris Middleton. Lopez (18 points, six rebounds, four blocked shots) and Middleton (20 points, seven rebounds, four assists, two steals) did their part versus the Pacers, but Lillard was missing in action for most of the game, most notably during the fourth quarter (four points, 1-5 field goal shooting) when the game was within reach.
The Pacers outrebounded the Bucks 51-46 while holding them to 43-96 (.448) field goal shooting despite ranking 29th in the league in rebounding and defensive field goal percentage. The Pacers also enjoyed a 43-13 advantage in bench scoring.
The Bucks started out well, leading by as many as seven points in the first quarter, but the Pacers trimmed the margin to 29-27 by the end of the stanza, and then they outscored the Bucks 36-22 in the second quarter. The Bucks bounced back to go up 78-72 on Antetokounmpo's finger roll at the 5:50 mark of the third quarter, and they were ahead 94-91 entering the fourth quarter.
The fourth quarter is supposed to be "Dame Time"--that is why they traded Jrue Holiday to acquire Lillard--but instead the Pacers blew out the Bucks 37-25 in the final 12 minutes, punctuated by Haliburton's clinching three pointer.
Some commentators may focus on how well the Pacers' bench played, but championships are won by star players, not bench players. The Bucks had a three point lead going into the fourth quarter, and they lost by nine points; the starters must take the brunt of the blame for that, and Lillard is the starter who is expected to do the most in crunch time but who instead did very little in this game's defining moments. It is true that Lillard has come through in the fourth quarter of some games this season, but that is the nature of being a high variance player; he will come through sometimes, but not come through other times, and in a seven game playoff series those "other times" are the times that send you home.
There are some players who tell us every April, May, or June after their teams are eliminated from the playoffs that they just missed shots that they expect to make. The Houston Rockets missed 27 straight three pointers in a game seven loss to Golden State in 2018, but anyone who suggests that the Rockets were just a few made shots away from advancing misses the point: the Rockets played a high variance offensive style without the safety net of a solid defense or a backup plan to attack the paint, so their misses and their losses were predictable (and I predict every year that such teams will lose in the playoffs). If the Bucks rely too heavily on Lillard's high variance logo shots then instead of winning a championship they will be telling us that they were just a few made shots away from beating whichever more well-rounded team eliminates them from the playoffs. The Bucks' offense should revolve around Antetokoumpo attacking the paint, with a side order of Lillard running screen/roll actions with Antetokounmpo or Lopez not to obtain logo shots but to generate shots in the paint; the secondary option should not be a logo shot but a wide open high percentage shot (that shot can be a three pointer, but there should not be a steady diet of 30 foot three pointers).
The Pacers are a young team that is still developing their identity. On offense, they relentlessly push the pace. On defense, they give up too many easy baskets but they also have enough good athletes and smart players to get stops when they are focused. The Pacers defeated the Boston Celtics to reach the NBA Cup Semifinals, while in the other Eastern Conference bracket the Bucks routed the New York Knicks. Thus, the Pacers have now eliminated from the NBA Cup both the Celtics and the Bucks, the East's top two teams. I am not yet quite sold on the Pacers being a championship contender this season, but they could be a team that no one wants to face in the playoffs; usually that cliche is meaningless--every year, I point out the flavor of the month "team that no one wants to face" that then bows out meekly in the first round--but these Pacers may live up to that description.
Labels: Damian Lillard, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Indiana Pacers, Milwaukee Bucks, Tyrese Haliburton
posted by David Friedman @ 2:03 AM
2 Comments:
High variance teams are generally not ideal, that is obvious. But, talent deficit teams or teams with some sort of big deficit need to take extraordinary risks to have even a chance of making or advancing in the playoffs. 2018 Houston was the best regular season team that year and the only team to even come close to beating the Durant/Curry Warriors in the playoffs when they were at full strength. The big differences in what you're talking about in general and Houston that year is that Houston was actually a great defensive team (#6), GS was literally an AS team, and GS was remained healthier in that series. Houston won 2 of the 3 defensive battle/struggle games in that series. Houston shot 44 3's in that game 7, but GS shot 39 still. It's not like GS was playing that much differently, they just had much superior players and shot better that night.
Anonymous:
According to Daryl Morey, the Rockets did not have a "talent deficit." They had James Harden--who Morey ranks as a better offensive player than Michael Jordan--plus Chris Paul (a player who the "stat gurus" also love) and a collection of other players ranked highly by "stat gurus." I know that Paul got injured, but that is part of his player profile, just like getting suspended at inopportune times is part of Draymond Green's player profile; when you make the choice to sign a player, you assume the risks in addition to benefiting from the possible rewards.
The 2018 Rockets ranked 16th in defensive field goal percentage, 18th in rebounding, and first in three point field goals attempted. The 2018 Warriors also were not great at rebounding (17th) but they ranked third in defensive field goal percentage. They also ranked first in both field goal percentage and three point field goal percentage, but 18th in three point field goals attempted, which speaks not only to talent but also to shot selection. The Rockets jacked up three pointers regardless of time/score/game situation, while the Warriors played much more intelligently.
It is amusing to me to debate/discuss Harden specifically and high variance players in general. I have been making the same logical points for over a decade and history has demonstrably proven me right repeatedly, but many people refuse to accept what the evidence shows. I am not necessarily saying that you fall into that camp (we'll see), but when I first wrote about "stat gurus" and the limitations of "advanced basketball statistics" I was told that Harden and others would prove me wrong because the "stat gurus" understand basketball better than I do; even after more than a decade's worth of evidence people still fight against the obvious truth.
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