20 Second Timeout

The NBA Cup Enters Its Fourth Season as the League Faces Injury Woes and Blowouts

The fourth annual NBA Cup began on Friday October 30, 2026, and it concludes with the championship game on December 11 at Hinkle Fieldhouse. As I noted in How Significant is the NBA Cup?, there is not much correlation between winning the NBA Cup and winning the NBA championship. The L.A. Lakers beat the Indiana Pacers 123-109 to win the inaugural NBA Cup in 2023, but then lost in the first round of the playoffs. The Milwaukee Bucks defeated the Oklahoma City Thunder to win the 2024 NBA Cup, but matched the Lakers by losing in the first round of the playoffs. Last season, the New York Knicks became the first team to win the NBA Cup and the NBA title in the same season: the Knicks topped the San Antonio Spurs 124-113 to win the 2025 NBA Cup en route to vanquishing the Spurs four games to one in the 2026 NBA Finals. 

NBA Commissioner Adam Silver implemented the NBA Cup to heighten interest in the regular season by placing a spotlight on four Group Play games played by each team, followed by Knockout Round games played by teams that advance out of Group Play, and culminating in the NBA Cup Championship--the most important game, but paradoxically the only game that does not count in the regular season standings and for which statistics are not included in either regular season or playoff numbers. 

My major critique of the NBA Cup is that by placing so much emphasis on NBA Cup games--and by paying bonus money to the players for these games--the NBA is sending the message that non-NBA Cup games are not as important. Devaluing most of the 82 game regular season in favor of a handful of early season NBA Cup games is odd, and it says a lot about the league's multimillionaire players that apparently they will not play as hard as they can unless extra money is on the line above their guaranteed salaries that already provide generational wealth.

This season, another concern affecting not only the NBA Cup but the league as a whole is the high number of serious injuries suffered by key players. The 2025 NBA champion Oklahoma City Thunder are currently without the services of Jalen Williams, Cason Wallace, and Chet Holmgren. Williams will probably miss the rest of the season after suffering a dislocated left ankle and fractured left fibula, Wallace is out indefinitely after tearing his left labrum, and Holmgren will miss at least 8-10 weeks because of a torn right patellar tendon. The Thunder quickly went from being a legitimate title contender to a team that is dealing with a significant loss of talent and depth. The Thunder are hurting the worst (no pun intended), but a host of star players will be out for the next several weeks at least, including Anthony Edwards, Kawhi Leonard, Paolo Banchero, Tyrese Haliburton, and Ja Morant. 

Last season, up to a third of the NBA's teams were actively tanking, which had the unwelcome effect of creating a large number of blowouts and some inflated statistics--most notably, Bam Adebayo scored 83 points in a game, shattering his previous career-high of 41 and raising justifiable fears that Wilt Chamberlain's single game record of 100 points could be broken by a somewhat above average player having a hot streak while playing against a tanking team. After the NBA removed most of the Draft Lottery incentives for tanking, it was reasonable to hope that this season would have fewer blowouts, but so far it has become commonplace to see teams losing by at least 15 points. 

As a result of the rash of injuries and the frequent blowouts, the focus has shifted from anticipating a competitive season culminating in intriguing playoff matchups to wondering why players can't stay healthy and why so many teams are playing so poorly. I am confident that most NBA fans care more about seeing healthy players playing hard in competitive games than they care about seeing the NBA Cup's garish courts and money-fueled hype.

Hopefully, the NBA Cup Championship will be competitive and compelling, but each of the first three NBA Cup Championships have been decided by double digit margins.

Labels: Adam Silver, L.A. Lakers, Milwaukee Bucks, NBA Cup, New York Knicks

posted by David Friedman @ 4:37 PM

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Don Nelson Lived a Full Basketball Life

Last Sunday, Don Nelson--who won five NBA titles as a player for the Boston Celtics before becoming one of the greatest coaches in NBA history--passed away at the age of 86. Nelson was a basketball innovator. He may not have originated the "point forward" concept, but during his tenure in Milwaukee he popularized it with players such as Marques Johnson and Paul Pressey. Pressey averaged 7.8 apg in 1985-86, setting a record for small forwards that stood until LeBron James averaged 8.6 apg in 2009-10. Nelson's teams often played "small ball," albeit out of necessity as much as by choice. Nelson tinkered with having his center shoot three pointers decades before teams widely adopted the practice of having big men operate behind the three point arc on offense. Nelson held the NBA record for regular season coaching wins from 2010-2022, surpassing Lenny Wilkens before being overtaken by Gregg Popovich, who served under him as an assistant coach during Nelson's first tenure in Golden State. Nelson earned the NBA Coach of the Year award in 1983, 1985, and 1992. Popovich and Pat Riley are the only other three-time winners of that award, though it should be noted that Larry Brown won the ABA Coach of the Year award three times before also winning the NBA Coach of the Year award once. In addition to his significant NBA coaching success, Nelson coached "Dream Team II" to the gold medal in the 1994 FIBA World Championship two years after the original Dream Team won the Olympic gold medal.

Nelson averaged 10.3 ppg and 4.9 rpg in his 14 season NBA playing career before leaving an indelible mark as a creative and shrewd coach. He spent his final 12 seasons for the Celtics after playing for the Chicago Zephyrs (which became the team now known as the Washington Wizards) as a rookie before doing a two year stint with the L.A. Lakers. Nelson never averaged 20 ppg or 10 rpg in a season, but he had some notable moments and achievements as a player, including hitting a shot just before the shot clock buzzer to give the Celtics a 105-102 lead over the Lakers with a little over a minute to go in game seven of the 1969 NBA Finals. Nelson's shot hit the back of the rim and bounced high in the air before nestling into the net, providing a cushion before the Celtics won 108-106 at L.A. to claim the 11th and final championship of the Bill Russell era. Nelson also ranked fourth in playoff scoring (11.4 ppg) for the 1974 NBA champion Celtics, and he led the NBA in field goal percentage (.539) in his second to last season (1974-75).

After Nelson retired in 1976, he started the next season with the Milwaukee Bucks as an assistant to Larry Costello before Costello resigned with a 3-15 record. Nelson became the head coach, and the Bucks went 27-37 the rest of the way. The Bucks missed the playoffs that season, advanced to the second round the next season, and then missed the playoffs again in 1979 before reaching the playoffs for eight straight years with Nelson at the helm. That run included seven straight Central Division titles (1980-86) and three Eastern Conference Finals appearances (1983-84, 1986). Nelson's Bucks never made it to the NBA Finals because either Larry Bird's Boston Celtics or Julius Erving's Philadelphia 76ers blocked their path each time they went on a deep playoff run. Nelson resigned after the 1986-87 season.

Nelson did some national color commentary work during the 1987-88 season before the Golden State Warriors hired him prior to the 1988-89 season. Nelson's seven years with the Warriors are most remembered for the spectacular play of the "Run TMC" trio, even though Tim Hardaway, Mitch Richmond, and Chris Mullin were only teammates for a little over two years. After Nelson's passing, Hardaway reflected on his impact: "Nellie was ahead of his time and there was nobody else like him. He had an incredible impact on my career and on the game of basketball. I'm going to miss him, and my thoughts and prayers are with Joy, Donnie and the entire Nelson family."

The Warriors led the NBA in scoring (116.3 ppg) in 1989-90, the Hall of Fame trio's first season together, but the Warriors ranked second to last in the league in points allowed (119.8 ppg) and finished with a 37-45 record. The Warriors went 44-38 in 1990-91, the team's best record since 1981-82. Prior to the 1991-92 season, the Warriors traded Richmond for the rights to Billy Owens. Owens finished third in Rookie of the Year voting as the Warriors went 55-27, their best record since the defending NBA champion Warriors went 59-23 in 1975-76. Injuries took a major toll in 1992-93 as the Warriors plummeted to 34-48, but they bounced back to 50-32 in 1993-94. Nelson clashed with Chris Webber, the team's second leading scorer and the NBA's 1994 Rookie of the Year, so Nelson resigned midway through the 1994-95 season. The Warriors did not make the playoffs again until 2007, the first season of Nelson's second stint as Golden State's coach.

Nelson coached the New York Knicks for less than a full season, guiding the team to a 34-25 record before being fired during the 1995-96 season. After one season away from coaching, Nelson served as the general manager and coach of the Dallas Mavericks starting in 1997. Nelson orchestrated the trades that resulted in the Mavericks acquiring future Hall of Famers Dirk Nowitzki and Steve Nash. Nowitzki posted a heartfelt tribute to his former coach and mentor:

Nellie… You didn't just draft me. You believed in me. You saw things in my game before I ever realized I could do them. I've said it a million times and I will always say it: I don't think my career could have turned out how it did without you being my first coach and giving me the freedom to play my game. I can only say THANK YOU. For everything. RIP legend.

The Mavericks had not made the playoffs since 1990 before Nelson guided them to four straight playoff appearances (2001-04), including a 60-22 season capped by a Western Conference Finals run in 2003. 

Nelson resigned as Dallas' coach late in the 2004-05 season and appointed Avery Johnson as his successor. After the season ended, Nelson resigned as general manager, tapping his son Donnie as his replacement. Nelson took a year off from coaching before going back to Golden State. The Warriors improved from 34-48 to 42-40 to earn the eighth playoff seed. Nelson outcoached his protege Avery Johnson as Nelson's Warriors authored one of the most memorable upsets in NBA playoff history by beating the top seeded 67-15 Mavericks 4-2 in the first round of the 2007 playoffs. The "We Believe" Warriors lost 4-1 in the second round. 

The Warriors improved to 48-34 next season, but missed the playoffs in a stacked Western Conference. That season, Nelson and Webber had a rapprochement, and Webber rejoined the Warriors, though he only played nine games before injuries forced him to retire. During the next two seasons, free agency and trades depleted the roster, but before departing the Warriors prior to the 2010-11 season Nelson laid the foundation for the team's future championship success by pushing the front office to select Stephen Curry with the seventh overall selection in the 2009 NBA Draft. It may be hard to imagine now, but at that time it was far from clear that Curry would be an All-Star, let alone an all-time great. The Warriors went 26-56 in Nelson's last season as Curry averaged 17.5 ppg and 5.9 apg to finish second to Tyreke Evans in Rookie of the Year voting.

Curry reacted to Nelson's passing with this statement:

One of the big reasons I was drafted by the Warriors was because of Don Nelson. The story is he never liked rookies, but from Day 1 he challenged me and gave me an opportunity to be my best self on the court. He taught me a lot during our one season together and I'll never forget the night he became the winningest coach in NBA history in Minnesota. We were so happy for him.

He had an immeasurable impact on the sport and will go down as one of the greatest minds in the history of the game. He's a true icon and will be missed by the countless number of people he touched, including myself, during a legendary career.

Nelson displayed keen insights in player evaluation not only in terms of the players he drafted and molded but also in some of his public comments about various players. For example, unlike many so-called experts who ignorantly bashed Kobe Bryant as selfish, Nelson fully appreciated Bryant's greatness, as indicated by this 2008 quote: "He allows these guys to do their thing and be successful and encourages them. He makes them even better than they are by playing alongside of him. He truly makes everybody better when he's on the floor with them. And you couldn't say that five years ago. But now you can say it. That's why he's such a complete player. When coaches look at players, we look at them a little bit differently. Do they make their surrounding teammates better? The answer with him is yes, yes, yes."

In another comment during Bryant's MVP-winning 2007-08 season, Nelson declared, "Kobe now has a grasp on the game like no other player and he controls it when he wants to. He makes the players alongside him succeed and he is a real leader out there. He has the whole package going for him; he is not just the best player in the league but probably the best leader. He could get 50 any time, I'm sure."

As part of the NBA's 50th anniversary celebration in 1996-97, Nelson was named one of the top 10 NBA coaches of all-time, and when the NBA celebrated its 75th anniversary in 2021-22 Nelson was honored as one of the top 15 NBA coaches of all-time. Despite not winning an NBA title, Nelson will long be remembered as one of the greatest and most innovative NBA coaches.

Labels: Boston Celtics, Chris Mullin, Dallas Mavericks, Dirk Nowitzki, Don Nelson, Golden State Warriors, Marques Johnson, Milwaukee Bucks, Mitch Richmond, New York Knicks, Paul Pressey, Steve Nash, Tim Hardaway

posted by David Friedman @ 12:32 PM

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Implications of the Miami Heat's Reported Acquisition of Giannis Antetokounmpo

NBA trades for the upcoming season do not become official until July 6, but assuming that the reports are correct and that nothing happens to scuttle the deal, the Milwaukee Bucks will send franchise cornerstone Giannis Antetokounmpo to the Miami Heat along with Bobby Portis in exchange for Tyler Herro, Kel'el Ware, Jaime Jaquez Jr., Kasparas Jakucionis, three first round draft picks, a second round draft pick, and a pick swap. No other teams are reported to be involved at this time, but last year the Kevin Durant trade that initially included just the Houston Rockets and the Phoenix Suns morphed into a massive seven team deal.

In general, the winner of an NBA trade is the team that acquires the best player involved in that deal; in basketball, several good players rarely are as valuable as one great player, and hoarding draft picks is akin to trading in risky futures and commodities: for draft picks to pay off, the person making the selections must be a skilled talent evaluator, the players who are drafted must be blessed with good health, and the coaching staff must do well at talent development. I would rather have a great player now than the potential of drafting a great player later, but that viewpoint is not universally held. 

Pat Riley has been the Miami Heat's president since 1995, and his consistent team building modus operandi relies not on hoarding draft picks but on trading for players who have earned multiple All-Star selections: the list of All-Stars who Riley acquired by trade includes Tim Hardaway, Alonzo Mourning, Shaquille O'Neal, LeBron James (via sign and trade after the infamous "Decision"), Chris Bosh, and Jimmy Butler. 

Antetokounmpo performed better last season (27.6 ppg, 9.8 rpg, 5.4 apg, .624 FG%) than any of the above players did in their season prior to joining the Heat with the exception of James, who won the 2010 regular season MVP before fleeing Cleveland to form the first "super team" of the modern era. The only downside regarding Antetokounmpo is that injuries limited him to a career-low 36 games last season--Antetokounmpo played in at least 61 games in each of his other 12 NBA seasons, and he finished fourth or better in regular season MVP voting for seven straight seasons (2019-25) while winning back to back MVPs in 2019-20. It will be interesting to see how fit and healthy Antetokounmpo is with the Heat, a team that is notorious for demanding that its players maintain high conditioning levels with low body fat percentages. Antetokounmpo is just 31 years old, and we have seen in recent years that well-conditioned NBA stars can play at an elite level past age 35--and, in LeBron James' case, past 40.

In 2021, Antetokounmpo led the Bucks to their second NBA title 50 years after the 1971 Bucks featuring Hall of Famers Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Oscar Robertson, and Bob Dandridge swept the Baltimore Bullets in the NBA Finals. Antetokounmpo scored 50 points in Milwaukee's series-clinching game six win versus the Phoenix Suns, tying Bob Pettit's record for the most points scored in a Finals-clinching victory while also becoming just the sixth player to have at least three 40 point games in one NBA Finals. Antetokpoumpo joined Michael Jordan and Hakeem Olajuwon as the only three players who have won a regular season MVP, a Finals MVP and a Defensive Player of the Year award (the Finals MVP was first awarded in 1969, and the Defensive Player of the Year award was first bestowed in 1983). Antetokounmpo averaged 35.2 ppg, 13.2 rpg, and 5.0 apg in the Finals while shooting .618 from the field, the first player in Finals history to post all of those numbers in the same series. 

However, since that championship run the Bucks have not been a potent playoff team: they lost in the second round in 2022, and then suffered three straight first round exits before not even qualifying for the Play-In Tournament in 2026. After the Heat eliminated the Bucks in five games in the first round of the 2023 playoffs, Antetokounmpo responded to a question about the Bucks' season being a failure:

You asked me the same question last year, Eric. Do you get a promotion every year? No, right? So, every year you work is a failure? Yes or no? No. Every year you work, you work toward something--toward a goal--which is to get a promotion, to be able to take care of your family, to be able to provide a house for them or take care of your parents. You work toward a goal. It's not a failure. It's steps to success. If you've never--I don't want to make it personal.

Michael Jordan played 15 years. Won six championships. The other nine years was a failure? That's what you're telling me? I'm asking you a question...Exactly, so why you ask me that question? It's the wrong question. There's no failure in sports. There's good days, bad days, some days you are able to be successful, some days you are not, some days it is your turn, some days it's not. That's what sports is about. You don't always win. Some other group is gonna win, and this year somebody else is gonna win. Simple as that. We’re gonna come back next year and try to be better, try to build good habits, try to play better--not have a 10 day stretch of playing bad basketball. Hopefully we can win a championship.

So, 50 years from 1971 to 2021 that we didn't win a championship, it was 50 years of failure? No, it was not. There were steps to it. And we were able to win one and hopefully we can win another one.

Sorry, I didn't want to make it personal, because you asked me the same question last year, and last year I wasn't in the right mind space to answer the question back--but I remember it.

Antetokounmpo understands that it is not possible to win a championship every year and that a season without winning a championship is not automatically a failure--but he also wants to have more chances to win another title before he retires. After it became apparent that the Bucks' championship window had closed, Antetokounmpo wanted out while the Bucks wanted to rebuild. 

The Heat now have an excellent and versatile frontcourt anchored by Antetokounmpo, three-time All-Star/six-time All-Defensive Team member Bam Adebayo, 2022 All-Star/2022 NBA champion Andrew Wiggins, and 2021 NBA champion Bobby Portis. The Heat are very thin in the backcourt, and they are likely to lose 2026 All-Star shooting guard Norman Powell in free agency. Davion Mitchell is serviceable at best as a starting point guard, and even if the Heat run their halfcourt offense through Antetokounmpo they still need point guards who can run the fastbreak and defend opposing point guards. The Heat also need to replace the three point shooting provided by Herro and Powell (assuming that Powell does not return). 

Until the Heat upgrade their backcourt, their realistic best case scenario is a 50 win regular season followed by a second round exit--but if they improve their backcourt then they can be a championship contender. In the 12 seasons since James left the Heat to return to Cleveland in 2014, the Heat missed the playoffs four times (including last season), lost in the first round four times, lost in the second round once, reached the Eastern Conference Finals three times, and lost in the NBA Finals twice; even if the Heat lose in the second round next season, that will be a better finish than they had in eight of the previous 12 seasons. Clearly, Riley did not acquire Antetokounmpo with the goal of losing in the second round; the point is that there is a limit to how far a team can go without an MVP-caliber player, and now the Heat have such a player for the first time in a dozen years.

The Heat's future may be uncertain, but includes the potential upside of winning an NBA championship. The Bucks' future is much grimmer. Consider what happened the last time the Bucks traded their cornerstone player; in six seasons, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar led the Bucks to two NBA Finals and one NBA title while winning three regular season MVPs, and the Bucks won at least 60 games in three of those seasons--but the Bucks won 38 games or less in three of the first four seasons after trading Abdul-Jabbar to the L.A. Lakers with Walt Wesley for Junior Bridgeman, Brian Winters, Dave Meyers, and Elmore Smith. The Bucks eventually became a contender again, making the playoffs for 12 straight seasons from 1980-91, but they never advanced beyond the Eastern Conference Finals, losing three times in that round. After losing in the 1986 Eastern Conference Finals, the Bucks reached the Eastern Conference Finals once (2001) between 1987 and 2019 (Antetokounmpo's sixth season). 

Rebuilding may sound good on paper or in soundbites, but NBA championships are won by teams led by players like Kareem Abdul-Jabbar and Giannis Antetokounmpo, not by the very good players who their teams received after trading them. Abdul-Jabbar won three regular season MVPs, five NBA championships, and one NBA Finals MVP with the Lakers. He had the good fortune of being paired with Magic Johnson and James Worthy, but they also had the good fortune of being paired with him. 

The Heat may not win a title with Antetokounmpo, but they have a better chance of winning a title in the next five years than they have had since James left; the Bucks traded a generational player for some good players and several draft picks, and if the aftermath of the Abdul-Jabbar trade is an indicator it may be 50 years before they have another generational player who leads them to the NBA Finals. 

Labels: Bobby Portis, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Jaime Jaquez Jr., Kasparas Jakucionis, Kel'el Ware, Miami Heat, Milwaukee Bucks, Tyler Herro

posted by David Friedman @ 12:40 AM

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How Significant is the NBA Cup?

The third annual NBA Cup began with eight games on Friday October 31, and will continue until a champion is crowned on Tuesday December 16. The Milwaukee Bucks defeated the Oklahoma City Thunder to win the 2024 NBA Cup, and the L.A. Lakers beat the Indiana Pacers 123-109 to win the inaugural NBA Cup in 2023. Most of this year's NBA Cup games will be played on Friday nights. All NBA Cup games also count in the regular season standings except for the championship game, which paradoxically is not classified as a regular season game or as a playoff game.

In a two year sample size, winning the NBA Cup has not correlated with winning the the NBA title. Milwaukee lost to Indiana in the first round of the 2025 playoffs, and the Lakers lost to the Denver Nuggets in the first round of the 2024 playoffs. The losers of the NBA Cup championship game have fared better in the NBA playoffs than the winners, with Oklahoma City capturing the 2025 NBA title and Indiana reaching the 2024 Eastern Conference Finals a year before losing to Oklahoma City in the 2025 NBA Finals.

NBA Commissioner Adam Silver openly dreamed for many years about creating an in-season tournament modeled after the in-season tournaments that already exist in other sports leagues around the world. He believes that such an in-season tournament heightens fan interest and lessens the incentive to tank--and he no doubt also believes that an in-season tournament provides revenue generating opportunities for the league.

There is little doubt that the league is using the NBA Cup to create revenue generating opportunities through sponsorships and through promotion by the league's media partners, but the other supposed advantages of the NBA Cup are difficult to quantify. There is not a direct, obvious way to measure the extent to which fan interest is impacted by the NBA Cup; did fans attend a particular game because it was an NBA Cup game or because they like one of the teams or because that game happened when they had enough time or money to go to a game? 

The race to the bottom that happened in both 2023 and 2024--and will almost certainly happen this season as well--belies the notion that the NBA Cup curbs tanking; it made no sense to assume that--even if every team cared a lot about winning the NBA Cup--the existence of an in-season tournament would have an impact on teams happily losing for most of the season.

It will be interesting to see how the NBA Cup is viewed in 10 years. The Lakers raised a banner to commemorate their 2023 NBA Cup title, and the Bucks raised a banner in honor of their 2024 NBA Cup title, but it is difficult to imagine legendary players of the past such as Michael Jordan or Kobe Bryant putting much stock in a banner celebrating anything other than an NBA title. How important can the NBA Cup championship game be if the statistics are not counted as either part of the regular season or the playoffs? The NBA Cup championship game is essentially an exhibition game for which the players are richly rewarded, as each member of the winning team receives more than $500,000.

Great players are evaluated based in large part on NBA championships, NBA MVPs, All-NBA selections, and overall individual statistics. Will NBA Cups eventually considered to be an important--or even relevant--part of a great player's resume? That seems doubtful.

Labels: Adam Silver, Indiana Pacers, L.A. Lakers, Milwaukee Bucks, NBA Cup, Oklahoma City Thunder

posted by David Friedman @ 12:13 AM

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2025-26 Eastern Conference Preview

Injuries and salary cap considerations will turn the Eastern Conference standings upside down. The Indiana Pacers made it to the Eastern Conference Finals in 2024 and 2025, and they pushed the dominant Oklahoma City Thunder to game seven of the 2025 NBA Finals before Tyrese Haliburton ruptured his right Achilles tendon. The Thunder outlasted the Pacers in game seven, and the Pacers will have to survive the 2025-26 season without Haliburton. The Pacers also lost starting center Myles Turner, who signed with the Milwaukee Bucks.

The Boston Celtics won the 2024 NBA championship, advanced to the 2022 NBA Finals before losing to the Golden State Warriors, and reached the Eastern Conference Finals six times in an eight year span (2017-18, 2020, 2022-24), but they are now facing a "gap year" after losing Jayson Tatum to a right Achilles tendon rupture in the second round of the 2025 NBA playoffs. With Tatum out of action, the Celtics decided to cut costs, trading Jrue Holiday to Portland for Anfernee Simons, and shipping Kristaps Porzingis to Atlanta in a three team deal that brought Georges Niang and a 2025 second round pick to Boston. The Celtics also did not re-sign backup center Luke Cornet, and did not retain the services of free agent Al Horford, who was their starting center for the better part of the past four seasons before signing with Golden State just prior to the start of the 2025-26 season.

With Indiana and Boston out of the championship contention picture, the path is wide open for the New York Knicks and Cleveland Cavaliers to battle for Eastern Conference supremacy, while the young Detroit Pistons and Orlando Magic look to build on the potential that they demonstrated last season, and the retooled Milwaukee Bucks seek to vault back to contender status after falling short since winning the 2021 NBA title. 

Despite reaching the Eastern Conference Finals for the first time since 2000, the New York Knicks fired Coach Tom Thibodeau and replaced him with two-time NBA Coach of the Year (2009 with Cleveland, 2023 with Sacramento) Mike Brown. Brown's .599 regular season career winning percentage ranks 10th all-time among coaches with at least 400 regular season wins, and his .556 playoff career winning percentage ranks 15th all-time among coaches with at least 40 playoff wins. Thibodeau's career winning percentages are .579 and .466 respectively. Neither Brown nor Thibodeau has won a championship as a head coach, and both have won at least one championship as an assistant coach (four for Brown, one for Thibodeau). Last season, the Knicks ranked ninth in points allowed but just 25th in defensive field goal percentage; in 2023-24, the Knicks ranked second in points allowed and 15th in defensive field goal percentage. A major challenge for Brown will be to build a strong defense despite having two poor defenders--Jalen Brunson and Karl-Anthony Towns--playing major minutes as the focal points of an offense that ranked fifth in field goal percentage and ninth in scoring last season.

Cleveland finished with the best record in the Eastern Conference (64-18, the second best mark in franchise history) before losing in the second round for the second year in a row. The Cavaliers have established that they can win a lot of regular season games, but they have not proven that they can sustain a lengthy playoff run. 

Listed below are the eight teams that I expect to qualify for the Eastern Conference playoffs, ranked based on their likelihood of advancing to the NBA Finals:

1) New York Knicks: The Knicks fired Coach Tom Thibodeau even though he led the team to the Eastern Conference Finals for the first time since 2000 while taking the Knicks to three straight playoff appearances for the first time since 2011-13. On the surface, it looks odd to get rid of a coach who has been so successful, but there are historical precedents for teams doing well after replacing winning coaches: Paul Westhead led the L.A. Lakers to the 1980 NBA title, but the Lakers replaced him with Pat Riley in 1981, and Riley coached the Lakers to four NBA titles (1982, 1985, 1987-88); Doug Collins led the Chicago Bulls to three straight playoff berths--culminating in reaching the Eastern Conference Finals in 1989--but the Bulls replaced him with Phil Jackson prior to the 1989-90 season, and Jackson coached the Bulls to six NBA titles (1991-93, 1996-98). 

There are some obvious differences between the 1980s Lakers/1990s Bulls and the current New York Knicks, with the foremost difference being that the Lakers had two Pantheon members (Kareem Abdul-Jabbar and Magic Johnson) and the Bulls had one Pantheon member (Michael Jordan) plus a player who should be ranked no lower than 25th all-time (Scottie Pippen), while the Knicks do not have any players who are even close to Pantheon level. 

The Knicks' best player, Jalen Brunson, is a 6-2 point guard with a shoot-first mentality; although he averaged a career-high 7.3 apg (eighth in the league) last season, his primary skill is scoring, and he has averaged at least 24.0 ppg in each of the last three seasons, peaking at 28.7 ppg in 2023-24 and scoring 26.0 ppg (eighth in the league) last season. The Knicks' second best player, Karl-Anthony Towns, has averaged at least 20 ppg in each of the last nine seasons, including 24.4 ppg (12th in the league) last season. Towns ranked second in the NBA with a career-high 12.8 rpg last season, but his poor defense and propensity to commit silly fouls are significant liabilities, particularly in the playoffs.

The Indiana Pacers eliminated the Knicks from the playoffs in each of the last two seasons, but the depleted Pacers do not figure to be a playoff threat--or even a playoff team--this season. The Boston Celtics have been an Eastern Conference Finals staple since 2017, but they will take a step (or several steps) back this season. I don't favor the Cleveland Cavaliers in a best of seven playoff series versus an elite team. Therefore, by process of elimination, the Knicks look like the team to beat in the Eastern Conference. 

It was not fair to fire Thibodeau, who did a great job with the Knicks, but Brown is also an excellent coach, and the Knicks seem to be in perfect position to benefit from the general weakening of the Eastern Conference.

2) Cleveland Cavaliers: In his first season as Cleveland's coach, Kenny Atkinson won the Coach of the Year award after leading the Cavaliers to a 64-18 record--but some of the shine from that success was dulled by losing in the second round for the second consecutive season. The Cavaliers have the necessary pieces to make a championship run, including an All-NBA First Team guard (Donovan Mitchell), the 2025 Defensive Player of the Year (Evan Mobley), an All-Star point guard (Darius Garland), and a center who scores efficiently in the paint while also rebounding well (Jarrett Allen). 

However, the playoff whole has not yet equaled the sum of the parts. The Knicks bullied the Cavaliers in the 2023 playoffs, the Celtics cruised past the Cavaliers 4-1 in the 2024 playoffs, and the Pacers shredded the Cavaliers' vaunted defense en route to a 4-1 win in the 2025 playoffs. The Cavaliers' playoff failures have been caused by lack of physicality and lack of game plan discipline, particularly on defense. Injuries have played a role, too, particularly last year, but most championship teams overcome some injury-related adversity.

The Cavaliers lost bench sparkplug Ty Jerome to the Memphis Grizzlies, and their only other significant roster move was trading Isaac Okoro to the Chicago Bulls for the oft-injured but very talented Lonzo Ball. Ball has never played more than 63 games in a season, and he has played in just 33 games since the 2021-22 season, but if he can stay healthy he can provide playmaking and tenacious defense.

The Eastern Conference should be wide open, but--as noted above--I don't trust the Cavaliers versus the Knicks in a best of seven series.

3) Orlando Magic: Injuries sidetracked the Magic's ascent last season, but with their key players healthy and some new players--most notably Desmond Bane and Tyus Jones--in the fold, the Magic expect to be one of the Eastern Conference's top teams. 

The Magic have a star or potential star in the paint, on the wing, and at guard. Power forward Paolo Banchero set career highs in scoring (25.9 ppg) and rebounding (7.5 rpg) but injuries limited him to 46 games. He is on a trajectory to be an All-NBA player, and he has already shown--albeit in a small sample size of just 12 playoff games--the ability to elevate his game in the postseason, with career playoff averages of 28.0 ppg and 8.5 rpg. Small forward Franz Wagner also set career highs in scoring (24.2 ppg) and rebounding (5.7 rpg), but he played in just 60 games after playing at least 72 games in each of his first three seasons. Guard Jalen Suggs ranked third on the team in scoring (16.2 ppg) before a knee injury ended his season after 35 games.  

The slow-paced Magic ranked 28th in points scored, 27th in field goal percentage, first in points allowed, and 17th in defensive field goal percentage. Improved health should help at both ends of the court, but three point shooting remains a major concern until proven otherwise; the Magic ranked 30th (last) in the NBA in both three point field goals made and three point field goal percentage. Bane should boost the Magic's rankings in both categories, as his career three point field goal percentage (.410) ranks 24th in ABA/NBA history, barely behind renowned "Splash Brother" Klay Thompson, and ahead of many noted long-range marksmen, including Dale Ellis, Mark Price, Ray Allen, and Glen Rice.

4) Milwaukee Bucks: Giannis Antetokounmpo is one of the NBA's elite players. Last season, the two-time regular season MVP (2019, 2020) and 2021 NBA Finals MVP finished third in regular season MVP voting after ranking second in the league in scoring (30.4 ppg), sixth in rebounding (11.9 rpg), and 13th in assists (6.5 apg, just a fraction short of the career high he set in 2023-24). He made the All-NBA First Team for the seventh straight year, and he finished in the top nine (eighth) in Defensive Player of the Year voting for the seventh straight year. The two-time Defensive Player of the Year has not made the All-Defensive Team since 2022, but he is still impactful at that end of the court. His only skill set weaknesses are free throw shooting (.617 last season, .693 for his career) and three point shooting (.222 last season, .284 for his career).

The Bucks added Myles Turner--fresh off of Indiana's run to the NBA Finals and back to back appearances in the Eastern Conference Finals--plus Cole Anthony and Gary Harris. To sign Turner, the Bucks stretched and waived Damian Lillard, who likely will not play this season after suffering a left Achilles tear. The Bucks also parted ways with Brook Lopez and Pat Connaughton. Lopez was a key member of Milwaukee's 2021 championship team, but he is 37 years old, so the 29 year old Turner is an upgrade in terms of both productivity and age. Anthony set career highs in scoring (16.3 ppg) and assists (5.7 apg) with Orlando in 2021-22, so he is capable of being the starting point guard; he averaged 9.4 ppg and 2.9 apg last season with Orlando, starting 22 of 67 games. Overall, the Bucks gained a lot more than they lost with these roster moves.

In his first full season as Milwaukee's coach, Doc Rivers posted a 48-34 record, the 14th time he led a team to at least 48 wins. His coaching resume includes one NBA title (Boston, 2008) and two Eastern Conference championships (Boston, 2008 and 2010), but also three blown 3-1 playoff series leads (Orlando Magic versus Detroit Pistons in 2003, L.A. Clippers versus Houston Rockets in 2015, and L.A. Clippers versus Denver Nuggets in 2020). To be fair, Rivers' teams were underdogs in two of those series (2003, 2015); also, Rivers coached Chris Paul in one of those series (2015), and Paul is one of the NBA's all-time playoff chokers, having "led" his teams to defeat a record five times after taking 2-0 series leads while also posting a 3-5 record in game sevens. More often than not, Rivers has maximized the potential of the teams that he coached.

Kyle Kuzma, who the Bucks acquired in a four team midseason trade that involved sending Khris Middleton to the Washington Wizards, averaged 14.5 ppg in 29 games with Milwaukee, ranking third on the team behind Antetlkounmpo and Lillard. Kuzma was a member of the L.A. Lakers' 2020 championship team, and the Bucks need for him to be a consistent scoring threat while also providing solid rebounding. 

Bobby Portis missed 25 games last season due to an NBA suspension for using a banned substance. He is a physically imposing player who provides defense, rebounding, three point shooting, and timely scoring. Portis finished third in Sixth Man of the Year voting in 2023 and 2024. 

Getting rid of Lillard--who would not have been able to play this season anyway--is addition by subtraction, particularly defensively. Turner provides athleticism and defense. I think that the Bucks will be better than most analysts are predicting.

5) Detroit Pistons: The Pistons hired J.B. Bickerstaff after their division rival Cavaliers fired him, and Bickerstaff finished second in Coach of the Year balloting as the Pistons improved from 14-68 to 44-38. Most of the team's sudden growth happened on defense, as the Pistons vaulted from 24th in defensive field goal percentage and 26th in points allowed to ninth and 14th respectively.

Cade Cunningham is an emerging star after averaging a career-high 26.1 ppg (seventh in the league) last season while also setting career highs in assists (9.1 apg, fourth in the league), field goal percentage (.469), and three point field goal percentage (.356). He earned his first All-Star selection and his first All-NBA Team selection (Third Team) while finishing seventh in MVP voting. Cunningham averaged 25.0 ppg, 8.7 apg, and 8.3 rpg in the Pistons' 4-2 first round loss to the New York Knicks.

Despite their successful season, the Pistons made several changes to their rotation, acquiring Caris LeVert, Duncan Robinson, and Javonte Green while losing Tim Hardaway Jr., Dennis Schroder, and Malik Beasley. As a result of those moves, the Pistons have less talent and depth.

Beasley played in all 82 games, finished third on the team in scoring (16.3 ppg), led the team in three point field goal percentage (.416), led the team in three point field goals made (319, second in the league), and finished second in Sixth Man of the Year voting. Schroder ranked second on the team in assists (5.3 apg), but he shot just .378 from the field. Hardaway averaged 11.0 ppg and ranked second on the team in three point field goals made (168). 

LeVert averaged a career-high 20.2 ppg in 2020-21, but he has averaged 14.0 ppg or less in each of the past three seasons. Robinson is a career .397 three point shooter, but he provides little else beyond perimeter shooting and he is a defensive liability. Green has now been with five teams in seven seasons, and his career scoring average is 5.3 ppg.

Despite the personnel losses, there are two reasons that the Pistons should be better this season than they were last season: (1) their young players will continue to improve, and (2) the Eastern Conference is much weaker than it was last season.

6) Atlanta Hawks: I do not rank the Hawks as highly as some commentators, because I am skeptical that any team that relies heavily on Trae Young can consistently win a lot of regular season games or go far in the playoffs; the Hawks have reached the playoffs three times in Young's seven season career, and they have advanced past the first round once. The Hawks will be depending heavily on offseason acquisitions Kristaps Porzingis and Nickeil Alexander-Walker to fortify a leaky defense that ranked 27th in points allowed and 28th in defensive field goal percentage--but Porzingis has played in at least 65 games in a season just once since 2017, and even though Alexander-Walker is a good defensive player he is not good enough to transform a team's entire defensive identity.

That being said, the Hawks have not only upgraded their overall talent but they have improved their defense, so it is conceivable that in a weakened Eastern Conference this team could finish in the top four--but even if that happens, I would be surprised if the Hawks advance past the second round.

7) Philadelphia 76ers: The 76ers are a difficult team to rank; if their "Big Three" players each play at least 70 games then the 76ers should finish in the top four in the Eastern Conference's regular season standings--but Joel Embiid's career-high is 68 games (he played in 19 games last season and 39 games two seasons ago), Paul George has played in at least 70 games just once in the past six seasons, and Tyrese Maxey played in just 52 games last season and has played in at least 70 games just twice in his five season career. The 76ers have never advanced past the second round since they began "tanking to the top," and it is unlikely that they will advance past the second round this season, regardless of how they perform during the regular season--but in a decimated Eastern Conference they will probably scrape together enough regular season wins to reach the Play-In Tournament and then slip into the playoffs.

8) Miami Heat: The Heat have reached the playoffs for six straight seasons, and during that time they advanced to the NBA Finals twice (2020, 2023). A good case could be made that Erik Spoelstra is the NBA's best coach, and he is a major reason that the Heat consistently play well regardless of injuries, roster turnover, and other challenges.

The Heat suffered a 10 game losing streak soon after trading the disgruntled Jimmy Butler to the Golden State Warriors last season, but then they rallied to win six games in a row en route to winning eight of their last 12 games to qualify for the Play-In Tournament. They then won two Play-In Tournament games to earn a first round matchup with the number one seeded Cleveland Cavaliers, who promptly obliterated the overmatched Heat, 4-0. That series demonstrated that there are limits to how far a team can advance just with great coaching. 

The Heat have a solid core group of players who have made the All-Star team at least once--Tyler Herro, Bam Adebayo, and Andrew Wiggins--but they lack a bona fide MVP-level superstar, and the reality in the NBA is that few teams win a championship without that kind of player. Herro had offseason foot surgery, and is expected to miss the first few weeks of the season, which means that the Heat may start slowly and have to rally to qualify for the Play-In Tournament, but they have enough talent and toughness to do that.

The Heat will play tenacious defense and they will try to cobble together a decent offense, but they are unlikely to advance past the first round. 

The teams that finish seventh through 10th in the regular season standings will participate in the Play-In Tournament. The above eight teams are the teams that I predict will qualify for the playoffs, regardless of what the final regular season standings are. 

During the Boston Celtics' 2024 championship run, Jaylen Brown won the Larry Bird Eastern Conference Finals MVP and the Bill Russell NBA Finals MVP. It will be interesting to watch Brown try to carry the Celtics sans Jayson Tatum, Jrue Holiday, Kristaps Porzingis, and Al Horford; my prediction is that Boston's defense is going to take a major step backwards after ranking second in points allowed and second in defensive field goal percentage, and I expect that Boston's three point-centric offense is going to struggle without Tatum drawing extra attention from opposing defenses. Anfernee Simons may set career-highs in scoring and three point field goals made, but he will give up at least as much on defense as he provides on offense.

Josh Giddey averaged 21.2 ppg, 10.7 rpg, and 9.3 apg in 19 games after the All-Star break, but for the Chicago Bulls to advance past the Play-In Tournament and earn a playoff berth--which the Bulls have done just once since 2018--they will not only need sustained high level performance from Giddey but a much stronger collective performance defensively.

Losing Tyrese Haliburton to injury and Myles Turner to free agency are crippling blows for the Indiana Pacers; if they can fight their way to the 10th seed and get Haliburton back in time for the Play-In Tournament then maybe they can grab the eighth seed, but the most likely scenario is that this team will win less than 35 games. 

A healthy season from Brandon Ingram--which is far from certain, considering that he has not played more than 65 games in a season since his rookie campaign (2016-17)--could lift the Raptors into the Play-In Tournament, but the most likely outcome is another trip to the Draft Lottery.

The Brooklyn Nets added Michael Porter Jr., who was an injury prone scorer for the Denver Nuggets and who played an important role for Denver's 2023 championship team. The Nets appear to be trying to tank without overtly tanking. Porter Jr. will likely average over 20 ppg and provide some entertainment/excitement, but a team with him as the number one option is unlikely to make the playoffs, even in the relatively weak Eastern Conference.

Brandon Miller is a promising young player who has displayed All-Star potential, and the Charlotte Hornets improved defensively last season, but the roster still lacks enough overall talent and depth to contend for a playoff berth. 

I will say the same thing about the Washington Wizards that I said in my 2024-25 Eastern Conference Preview: the Wizards "have not been relevant since Russell Westbrook carried the team that should be known as the "Wheeze-hards" to the 2021 playoffs."

**********
Note:

I correctly picked seven of the eight 2025 Eastern Conference playoff teams. Here are my statistics for previous seasons:

2024: 7/8
2023: 7/8
2022: 6/8
2021: 6/8
2020: 7/8
2019: 6/8
2018: 6/8
2017: 5/8
2016: 5/8
2015: 5/8
2014: 6/8
2013: 7/8
2012: 8/8
2011: 5/8
2010: 6/8
2009: 6/8
2008: 5/8
2007: 7/8
2006: 6/8

2006-2025 Total: 124/160 (.775)

Labels: Atlanta Hawks, Cleveland Cavaliers, Detroit Pistons, Miami Heat, Milwaukee Bucks, New York Knicks, Orlando Magic, Philadelphia 76ers

posted by David Friedman @ 11:41 AM

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Brief Thoughts About the First Quadrupleheader of the 2025 NBA Playoffs

The 2025 NBA playoffs opened with a Saturday quadrupleheader. Here are some brief thoughts about each game:

Game One: Indiana Pacers 117, Milwaukee Bucks 98

The Bucks led 6-3 before the Pacers went on a 12-2 run and never trailed again. The Pacers were up 67-43 at halftime and pushed that advantage to 77-49 early in the third quarter before settling for a 19 point win. Pascal Siakam (25 points on 10-15 field goal shooting) led six Pacers who scored in double figures, while Giannis Antetokounmpo could have sung Eric Carmen's classic song "All by Myself": he scored a game-high 36 points on 14-23 field goal shooting and had a game-high 12 rebounds, but no other Buck scored more than 15 points as his teammates combined for 62 points on 21-61 field goal shooting (.344). Damian Lillard did not play due to injury (blood clot in his right calf, and starters Ryan Rollins (five points), Kyle Kuzma (zero points), and Taurean Prince (zero points) combined to score five more points than a dead man.

Perhaps Lillard's anticipated healthy return for game two will help, but the Pacers played at a much faster speed and a much higher energy level than every Buck not named Antetokounmpo, and one undersized/injury-prone guard who is allergic to defense is unlikely to significantly change the Bucks' fortunes.

People who don't understand playoff basketball say things like "Game one is a feel out game" and "A playoff series does not begin until a road team wins a game." The reality is much different on both counts. Since the 1983-84 season, game one winners eventually win the series 77.1% of the time, including 79.0% of the time in the first round. Also, teams that win the first two games of a seven game series eventually win the series 92.0% of the time--which means that if the home team wins the first two games then the series is over much more often than not before the road team even plays a game at home. Game two is a must win for the Bucks, who are already in deep trouble as the shorthanded underdog.

Game Two: Denver Nuggets 112, L.A. Clippers 110 (OT)

Nikola Jokic had a slightly below average game by his lofty standards (29 points, game-high 12 assists, nine rebounds) and the Nuggets shot an uncharacteristically poor 41-94 (.436) from the field but they still beat a Clippers team that shot 43-86 (.500) from the field with James Harden scoring a game-high 32 points on 11-22 field goal shooting and dishing for a team-high 11 assists while committing just two turnovers. Aaron Gordon (25 points, eight rebounds) and Jamal Murray (21 points, nine rebounds, seven assists) were productive starters supporting Jokic's near triple double, and Russell Westbrook led the charge off of the bench with 15 points, eight rebounds, three assists, and just one turnover in 34 high energy minutes. Westbrook shot just 5-17 from the field but he had a +7 plus/minus number and after the game he dismissed the incessant focus on his shooting: "A lot of people put a lot of emphasis on missing so many shots. But in the playoffs, all you need to do is just win the game. I don't give a damn about how many shots you miss, make. Just make winning basketball plays defensively, offensively." Shot selection is important, and efficient shooting is important--but Westbrook is such a dynamic, high energy player that you can live with some of his shortcomings: I would rather have five Westbrooks playing hard and playing fearlessly than five "efficient" players who need to have their batteries jump-started and who demand rest days and "load management."

This game could have gone either way at several key junctures, but the Clippers have to be kicking themselves after squandering a 15 point lead and losing to a Denver team that had an off night. Regression to the mean indicates that the Nuggets are likely to shoot closer to their season average field goal percentage of .506 (first in the league) for the rest of this series, and Harden is likely to shoot closer to his playoff career field goal percentage of .425 for the rest of this series; in his last three playoff series, Harden had six games during which he shot at least .500 from the field and 10 games during which he shot worse than .430 from the field, including eight in which he shot worse than .320 from the field. Harden's playoff choking is not a slanted narrative or "hate": it is a statistical fact, and if he does not choke in this series then that will be a deviation from his career norm of playing poorly when the games matter the most. He played well in game one, but he is unlikely to sustain that, and the regression to the mean already began in the second half, when he managed just 10 points on 2-6 field goal shooting. Harden bounced back to score seven points on 3-3 field goal shooting in the overtime, but he was also involved in the turnover with 9.6 seconds remaining in overtime that essentially ended the game as Westbrook deflected a pass off of Harden's leg and out of bounds (interestingly, the scorekeeper assigned that turnover to Nicolas Batum for a "bad pass"). The "inefficient" Westbrook not only made the key defensive play on Harden, but he also hit a three pointer that put the Nuggets up 98-96 with 24.1 seconds remaining in the fourth quarter. Harden's runner sent the game to overtime, and the Nuggets did just enough in the extra session to prevail.

Kawhi Leonard scored 22 points on 9-15 field goal shooting for the Clippers but he also had a game-high seven turnovers. Ivica Zubac added 21 points and a game-high 13 rebounds; some media members are depicting Zubac as a Jokic-stopper but that is probably going to end as well for Zubac as the "Kobe-stopper" designation ended for Ruben Patterson (who brought that shame upon himself by giving himself that nickname, as opposed to being an innocent bystander to foolish media narratives).

Game Three: New York Knicks 123, Detroit Pistons 112

Detroit led 90-81 with 42 seconds remaining in the third quarter, after which the young Pistons had their "Welcome to the NBA playoffs!" moment as New York went on a 30-8 run to storm in front 111-98 with 4:49 left in the fourth quarter. Cade Cunningham's three pointer cut the margin to six (118-112) with 1:23 remaining, but the Pistons did not score the rest of the way.

Jalen Brunson scored a game-high 34 points for the Knicks on 12-27 field goal shooting, and he had a team-high eight assists. Brunson scored 12 fourth quarter points on 5-7 field goal shooting. Karl-Anthony Towns dominated inside with 23 points on 10-14 field goal shooting and a game-high 11 rebounds. OG Anunoby contributed 23 points and seven rebounds; he had 12 points in in the first quarter. Cameron Payne provided a major spark with 14 points in 15 minutes off of the bench, including 11 in the fourth quarter.

Tobias Harris led the Pistons with 25 points, while Cunningham had 21 points, a game-high 12 assists, six rebounds, and a game-high six turnovers in this first career playoff game.

Game Four: Minnesota Timberwolves 117, L.A. Lakers 95

Luka Doncic scored 16 first quarter points on 5-10 field goal shooting in his Lakers' playoff debut, and the Lakers led 28-21 at the end of the first stanza. The Timberwolves then shredded the Lakers with 38 points in the second quarter and 35 points in the third quarter, building an 85-58 lead midway through the third quarter to stun Lakers' fans who expected a coronation but attended a massacre. Minnesota shot 44-86 (.512) from the field, including 21-42 (.500) from three point range, and the Timberwolves outrebounded the Lakers 44-38 while outscoring the Lakers 44-32 in the paint. The Timberwolves beat the Lakers inside, outside, upside down, and sideways. The Lakers designated Jaden McDaniels as a "let him shoot" player, and he poured in a team-high 25 points on 11-13 field goal shooting. Naz Reid added 23 points on 8-12 field goal shooting off of the bench, and Anthony Edwards contributed 22 points, a game-high nine assists, and eight rebounds. Doncic finished with a game-high 37 points on 12-22 field goal shooting with eight rebounds but just one assist. LeBron James had a very quiet 19 points, five rebounds, and three assists, Austin Reaves scored 16 points on 5-13 field goal shooting, and no other Laker had more than nine points.

The Lakers looked forward to setting records with J.J. Redick as their new coach and Doncic as their new cornerstone player, but the milestones that they established in this game were not what they had in mind: the Lakers tied the franchise record for largest margin of defeat in a game one home loss, they had their lowest point total so far with Doncic and James playing together, and they suffered the worst first round game one loss of James' illustrious career.

When the Lakers win, there is plenty of credit to go around, but when the Lakers lose there is a competition to figure out who to blame. Two people who are sure that a loss is never their fault are LeBron James and J.J. Redick. James assured reporters that his teammates may have just needed a game to adjust to playoff basketball but they will be ready in game two; he did not mention that the Lakers may need more from him. In his in-game interview after the third quarter, Redick declared that the Timberwolves were not doing anything "schematically" that the Lakers did not expect; one thing that you can count on with Redick is that anything that goes wrong is never his fault: if the Lakers play poorly or lose, it is because the players did not execute his brilliant game plan. Redick rarely holds himself accountable. 

As noted above, winning game one is significant. That being said, if the team with homecourt advantage loses game one all hope is not extinguished, because a road team winning game one in a best of seven series has won the series 52% of the time since 2002-03, when the NBA expanded the first round from best of five to best of seven; however, the team with homecourt advantage in the first round wins the series 77.4% of the time overall, so by winning game one on the road the Timberwolves significantly increased the likelihood that they will win this series. 

I picked the Lakers to beat the Timberwolves because I thought that the Timberwolves would have a tough time matching up with the scoring/playmaking of Doncic, James, and Reaves, but if only Doncic shows up and the Lakers play no defense then the Lakers are in trouble. The Lakers may still win this series, but if that happens it will be because Doncic's individual brilliance supplemented by contributions from James and Reaves overcomes the Lakers' limitations in terms of lack of size and coaching.

Labels: Denver Nuggets, Detroit Pistons, Indiana Pacers, L.A. Clippers, L.A. Lakers, Milwaukee Bucks, Minnesota Timberwolves, New York Knicks

posted by David Friedman @ 10:37 AM

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Junior Bridgeman Lived a Model Life on and Off the Court

Only a select few people make it to the NBA, let alone have a career lasting 12 seasons--but Junior Bridgeman's second act after he retired from the NBA was even more impressive than his playing career. Bridgeman, who passed away suddenly and unexpectedly yesterday at the age of 71, built a business empire that vaulted his net worth to an estimated $1.4 billion, making him one of the five wealthiest retired athletes in the world. Bridgeman's diverse portfolio included hundreds of Wendy's and Chili's restaurants before he sold them in 2016, plus investments in Coca-Cola bottling, magazine publishing (he recently bought Ebony and Jet), and a 10% ownership stake in the Milwaukee Bucks.

Ulysses Lee "Junior" Bridgeman grew up in East Chicago, Indiana, and he led Washington High School to the 1971 Indiana state high school championship with a 29-0 record. He then starred at the University of Louisville, earning Missouri Valley Conference Player of the Year honors in 1974 and 1975. During his senior season, Bridgeman led the Cardinals to the Final Four, where they lost in the national semifinals to eventual champion UCLA, 75-74. 

The L.A. Lakers selected Bridgeman with the eighth overall pick in the 1975 NBA Draft, but before the season began the Lakers sent Bridgeman, Dave Meyers, Elmore Smith, and Brian Winters to the Milwaukee Bucks in exchange for Kareem Abdul-Jabbar and Walt Wesley. Trading an all-time great like Abdul-Jabbar rarely works out well, but the Bucks went 38-44 in the first season after shipping out Abdul-Jabbar, matching their record in Abdul-Jabbar's final season with the team. Bridgeman averaged 8.6 ppg as a rookie.

Bridgeman ranked third on the team in scoring (14.4 ppg) in his second season, but the Bucks' record slipped to 30-52. Don Nelson replaced Larry Costello as Milwaukee's coach after the team started out 3-15, and the Bucks went 27-37 down the stretch, setting the stage for a string of winning seasons to follow.

The 1977-78 Bucks went 44-38. Bridgeman played in all 82 games and averaged 15.5 ppg. In his first five seasons, Bridgeman played in 81, 82, 82, 82, and 81 games. No load management back then; it was expected that players would play in as many games as possible, and it was a badge of honor to play in all 82 games. 

Bridgeman came off of the bench for most of his career, and in the late 1970s/early 1980s he was one of the league's premier sixth men. The NBA did not give out the Sixth Man of the Year award until 1983-84, so prime Bridgeman missed out on potentially receiving that honor.

Bridgeman enjoyed his best season in 1979-80, averaging 17.6 ppg (second on the team) for the 49-33 Bucks, who lost 4-3 in the playoffs to the defending champion Seattle SuperSonics; the Bucks were a Western Conference team at that time, but they shifted to the Eastern Conference in 1980-81--and for the Bucks this was like jumping out of the frying pan and into the fire, as the 60-22 Bucks lost 4-3 in the Eastern Conference semifinals to the Julius Erving-led Philadelphia 76ers, a squad that reached the NBA Finals in 1977, 1980, and 1982 before acquiring Moses Malone and winning it all in 1982-83. 

I recently watched a video of game one of the 1981 Philadelphia-Milwaukee series. The 76ers won 125-122 as Erving scored a game-high 38 points, but Bridgeman stood out for Milwaukee as he poured in a playoff career-high 32 points on 12-19 field goal shooting. In that game, Bridgeman showcased his deadly midrange jumper--a lost art in today's NBA, but a thing of beauty to watch--and he also proved that he had some bounce by dunking in traffic. 

The 76ers eliminated the Bucks from the playoffs in 1981, 1982, and 1983. The 1984 76ers were upset by the New Jersey Nets in the first round, and the Bucks reached the Eastern Conference Finals before falling in five games to the eventual NBA champion Boston Celtics. 

After the 1984 season, the Bucks shipped Bridgeman, Harvey Catchings, and Marques Johnson to the L.A. Clippers for Terry Cummings, Craig Hodges, and Paul Pierce. Bridgeman spent two seasons with the Clippers before they traded him to the Sacramento Kings, who then waived him. Bridgeman returned to the Bucks and played one last season with Milwaukee. 

Bridgeman scored 11,517 career points, averaged 13.6 ppg, and sported a .846 career free throw percentage that still ranks 83rd on the ABA/NBA career list. His name is also visible throughout the Bucks' record book, including a third place ranking in career games played (711).

Many retired players struggle to adjust to life out of the spotlight--and to no longer receiving big paychecks--but Bridgeman proved to be an astute student of business; even more importantly, he was very generous with his time and with his money, serving as a role model and providing a blueprint for pro athletes who far too often lose fortunes after their playing days.

Today's NBA players would do well to not only learn from how Bridgeman played--showing up for every game, accepting whatever role he was given, and contributing to team success in every way other than three point shooting--but also how he lived his life off of the court.

Condolences to Junior Bridgeman's family and friends. He will be missed but not forgotten.

Labels: Julius Erving, Junior Bridgeman, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, L.A. Clippers, Milwaukee Bucks, Philadelphia 76ers

posted by David Friedman @ 12:37 AM

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Milwaukee Bucks Beat Philadelphia 76ers 135-127 in Hubie Brown's Final Broadcast

For Hubie Brown, the game is always the most important thing, so in deference to his approach I will focus first on what happened in Hubie Brown's last game as an analyst before shifting my attention to Brown's legacy and the tributes paid to him during a very special and well-produced broadcast.

The Milwaukee Bucks sans two-time regular season MVP and 2021 NBA Finals MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo defeated the Philadelphia 76ers 135-127. Prior to the game, Brown noted that both of these teams must improve defensively, which he emphasized is a collective effort and not just a matter of individual one on one defense. The final score indicates that neither team is a defensive juggernaut, to put it mildly.

Brown's pregame choices for players to watch proved to be very prescient: Damian Lillard scored a season-high and game-high 43 points to lead the Bucks to victory, and Tyrese Maxey scored a team-high 39 points in a valiant effort for the 76ers. Before the game, Brown praised Lillard's three point shooting and his complete game as a scorer/playmaker/rebounder, and he complimented Maxey's complete game plus his unstoppable off the dribble moves. Lillard shot 14-27 from the field--including 8-15 from three point range--while passing for a game-high eight assists and grabbing seven rebounds. Maxey nearly matched Lillard shot for shot and play for play, shooting 16-23 from the field--including 5-10 from beyond the arc--while dishing for five assists and pulling down four rebounds. 

Gary Trent Jr. scored 23 points off of the bench for the Bucks, and Bobby Portis added 18 points, a game-high 13 rebounds, and five assists as the Bucks' reserves outscored the 76ers' reserves 54-35. 

The 76ers' purported "Big Three" combined to score 78 points, but this is an example of how numbers can be deceiving. Maxey did as much as he could and he played hard at both ends of the court, but Joel Embiid (27 points, 12 rebounds, six assists, five turnovers) lumbered up and down the court, looked a step and a half slow on defense, and accumulated his statistics based more on size/raw talent than on consistently playing championship-level basketball. Paul George drifted around the court, putting up solid starter numbers (12 points, six assists, five rebounds), but having little impact on the game's outcome.

During a defense-optional first quarter when Milwaukee outscored Philadelphia 40-39, Brown mentioned Lillard's ability to score at all levels, draw fouls, and make free throws, and he noted Lillard's willingness to take the big shot in late game situations. After Lillard made a long three pointer, Brown quipped to his play by play partner Mike Breen, "If he steps back any deeper, he's going to be with you and me at the table."

Brown mentioned how much he loves Philadelphia's Kyle Lowry, who he described as the "heart and soul" of Toronto's 2019 championship team for Coach Nick Nurse before joining Nurse with the 76ers. Lowry, who is battling a hip injury, played just six minutes, and has had a limited impact this season, but the 76ers desperately need more players who play with the energy and hustle he displays when his body is right.

What struck me most during this game is how bad Embiid looks, despite his superficially impressive statistics. Embiid did not jump for rebounds in his area on several possessions, he did not run hard, he rarely fought for low post position, and he did not set strong screens. Embiid spent most of his time on offense drifting around the perimeter, and he did a poor job protecting the paint on defense. Yes, he scored nearly a point per minute while leading the team in rebounds and tying for the team lead in assists, which shows that even at half speed he is still a very productive player statistically--but a team cannot win a championship when its best player is out of shape, does not play hard, and is chronically unavailable. This is not a one game assessment/indictment of Embiid; what he showed during this game--the gaudy numbers and the small impact on team success--is what he has shown throughout his career, and it is sheer folly to believe/expect that he is going to show anything else on the back end of his career. To top things off, sideline reporter Lisa Salters dropped a bombshell: Embiid told her that he will likely need another knee surgery, followed by a long rehab process. Embiid will turn 31 in a month, and he has never played in more than 68 games in a season (a high water mark that he reached in 2022), so it is fair to wonder if he will ever be fully healthy and available to play on a regular basis. 

I have consistently said that it is ridiculous to assert that the 76ers have "tanked to the top" and that if they ever win a championship with Embiid that will happen despite the infamous "Process," not because of it.

The Bucks were ahead 65-63 at halftime even though Maxey had 26 first half points and Embiid had 24 first half points, the first time this season that they both scored at least 20 points in a half. Embiid already looked gassed by the second quarter, and he had just three points in the second half. 

The Bucks led by as many as 25 points in the second half before the 76ers cut the margin during garbage time. Breen asked Brown what went wrong for the 76ers, and Brown succinctly noted the 76ers' two problems: bad shot selection, and not playing as aggressively as they had played in the first half. It should be added that both problems can be traced to the basketball habits of Embiid, the team's most talented player; half of his field goal attempts came from beyond the arc even though he was the biggest and strongest player on the court, and his casual approach to defense is not likely to inspire supreme effort from anyone on his squad. It matters little that Embiid shot a high percentage from beyond the arc (4-7) or that he has a good shooting touch; for the 76ers to be a championship contender, they need for Embiid to dominate the paint while shooting timely three pointers, instead of regularly shooting three pointers while occasionally posting up. If Embiid is not physically capable of playing the right way, then the team should shut him down until his body is right; if he is not willing to play the right way, then the coaching staff and management must confront Embiid about this. 

Throughout the telecast, Brown suggested that at full strength both of these teams are capable of challenging Boston, Cleveland, and New York for conference supremacy. Theoretically, that may be true, but from a practical standpoint it looks highly unlikely that the 76ers will ever be healthy enough or focused enough to advance past the second round (and they are on course to not even make the Play In Tournament this season). As for the Bucks, their ceiling is higher than the 76ers' ceiling: with a healthy Antetokounmpo teaming up with Lillard, Portis, Brook Lopez, and the recently acquired Kyle Kuzma, the Bucks are capable of reaching the Eastern Conference Finals, but anything beyond that seems out of reach.

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Milwaukee was the most fitting location for Hubie Brown's final broadcast, because that is where his NBA journey began in 1972 when Larry Costello hired him as his assistant coach (at that time, NBA teams only had one assistant coach, not an army of assistants). During this game, Breen and Brown seamlessly included details about Brown's remarkable basketball journey into the broadcast without detracting from their attention to the live action. 

Brown successfully coached at the high school, college, and professional levels. After working for Costello in Milwaukee, Brown led the Kentucky Colonels to the 1975 ABA title before coaching three NBA teams: Atlanta Hawks (1976-81), New York Knicks (1982-86), Memphis Grizzlies (2002-04). He won the NBA Coach of the Year award in 1978 and 2004, and he finished third in the balloting in three other years (1979-80, 1984). 

Brown first did analysis on nationally televised NBA games for the USA Network in 1981. After he coached the Knicks, Brown did analysis for CBS from late 1986 until 1990, and then he worked for TNT from the early 1990s until he became Memphis' coach in 2002. Brown left the Grizzlies due to unspecified health reasons, but he soon joined ABC/ESPN. Brown was initially the network's lead analyst, and he worked the 2005 and 2006 NBA Finals in that capacity, but then he was replaced as the lead analyst by the Mark Jackson-Jeff Van Gundy duo. Brown continued to do games for ABC/ESPN, and he also did games for ESPN Radio, including 14 NBA Finals. Overall, Brown was a commentator for a record 18 NBA Finals. In addition to his success as both a coach and a commentator, Brown was a tremendous clinician at basketball camps in the U.S. and at basketball camps/clinics held around the world. Breen said that Brown has taught basketball to more people than anyone, and that statement is not hyperbole.

Brown said that his 50-plus years in pro basketball as a coach and media member went by very quickly, and that what he thinks about the most are the people who opened doors for him. Brown mentioned that working for Costello provided the equivalent of a Master's degree and a Doctorate in basketball in just two years. Brown said that he learned a lot from Costello, from teaching at various clinics, and from speaking at a variety of corporate engagements. 

During the first quarter, Mike Tirico made a live appearance, and he chatted with Brown and Breen. Tirico remembered calling Lillard's series-winning shot in 2014 with Brown by his side, and he reminisced about calling Kobe Bryant's 60 point career finale alongside Brown. 

Breen said that Brown has been an "NBA father" to his play by play partners, and he said that it is a "privilege" to call a game with Brown.

When Mark Jones joined the broadcast, he talked about the excitement he felt the first time that he worked with Brown, and he spoke about Brown providing pointers for his basketball playing kids. Like all of Brown's broadcast partners, Jones mentioned that Brown treated him like family. 

Brown later talked about the importance of making everyone feel included on a team, whether that team is a sports team or a broadcasting team. Brown explained that he learned an important lesson about team chemistry while assisting Costello, who put Brown in charge of working with the last three players on the bench at a time when NBA rosters had just 10 players. Brown said that on a strong team like the Bucks during that era, the last three players on the roster did not play very much and were often upset with their limited roles. When Brown became a head coach, he lengthened his player rotation to give more players playing time and decrease the number of dissatisfied players on the bench.

Basketball Hall of Famer Oscar Robertson, who played for Costello and Brown in Milwaukee, recorded a message during which he noted that when Hubie Brown speaks everyone listens and respects what he says.

After Breen asked Brown his take on the Luka Doncic-Anthony Davis trade that shocked most NBA observers, Brown noted that Wilt Chamberlain, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Julius Erving, Shaquille O'Neal, and LeBron James--"five of the greatest"--all were traded, so Doncic can also be traded.

When Dave Pasch made a live appearance, he pointed out that it is rare to be an icon in just one field, but that Brown is an icon in two fields (coaching and commentating). Pasch said that Brown always asks his play by play announcer how he is doing, and if he had enough time to talk. Pasch quipped that just once he wanted to mess with Brown and say that he had not had enough time to talk. 

Basketball Hall of Famer Patrick Ewing, who played for Brown when Brown coached the Knicks, praised Brown's "vast knowledge" of basketball.

Hall of Famer Pau Gasol called it a "privilege" to play for Brown in Memphis.  

Other people who recorded tributes to Brown include Indiana Coach Rick Carlisle, Miami Coach Erik Spoelstra, and NBA Commissoner Adam Silver.

ESPN/ABC ran a graphic stating that Brown coached against or broadcasted 80% of the players in NBA history, a statistical nugget that is stunning but not surprising. 

Near the end of the broadcast, Breen shared with the audience a look at "The Hubie Sheet," the meticulous notes that Brown brought to each game and then marked up during the broadcast:

Brown downplayed this, saying that being prepared is part of the job--but the way that Brown treated each game like a masterpiece deserving the most careful thought and analysis demonstrates his dedication to his craft.

After the game, the referees presented the game ball to Brown, who joked about receiving a present from them despite leading the league in technical fouls along with Kevin Loughery. 

Next, ESPN/ABC ran a piece featuring several of Brown's colleagues reminiscing about Brown. Dick Stockton is one of the most gracious people who I have ever had the privilege of interviewing, and he made an eloquent tribute to Brown: "I hope that the viewing audience of NBA basketball realize what kind of a treasure Hubie Brown has been in a brilliant career which longevity is beyond comparison. I worked with a lot of different people in a lot of sports in my 55 year career as a broadcaster but he stands out because of his love of the game and the way he expressed the game."

Breen asked Brown to summarize his thoughts about his career. Brown said that he learned from his father to always give 100%, and that he viewed both coaching and broadcasting as being part of a team whose job is to teach. Brown thanked all of his well-wishers on behalf of his family, and he noted that the day was almost overwhelming. Brown mentioned that a cardinal principle that he always upheld is to never underestimate the IQ of the audience.

Brown deserved all of the heartfelt praise that he received, but I would be remiss if I did not note that the same employer that is gushing over him as he departs relegated him to second tier status for most of his tenure with ESPN/ABC; he was only the lead analyst at ESPN/ABC for a brief time, but he is the best NBA analyst of all-time, and he should have been on the number one team for a lot longer than he was. Howard Cosell once declared, "I never played the game" (which was also the title of his 1985 autobiography), meaning not only that he never played pro sports but that he never stooped to playing the game of being popular at the expense of being authentic to his values. Based on ESPN's other hiring choices, it is fair to assume that the network chose "entertainment"--which is, after all, what the "E" stands for in ESPN--over in depth analysis. I mean no disrespect to Van Gundy or Jackson, who both did well during their time at ESPN, but Brown is a better analyst than either of them.

I interviewed Hubie Brown in 2006 and 2009. My approach to basketball writing has always focused on the perspective of a coach/scout analyzing the skill set strengths and weaknesses of players and teams, and then determining what the optimal strategy should be for a team based on a skill set analysis of that team and the opposing team. This analytical approach is heavily influenced by Brown, and I agree with Brown that you don't talk down to the audience, but rather you provide high level information to the audience with the belief and expectation that the audience can follow along and will appreciate being educated. I can crack jokes and be silly, but my primary focus is spreading knowledge, not producing one liners or click-bait hot takes. During the time that I covered the NBA as a credentialed media member at regular season games, playoff games, and All-Star Games, I cherished the opportunity to speak in person with coaches and scouts. I learned a lot from those conversations, but those conversations also reaffirmed that I analyze and perceive the game the way that coaches and scouts do, in contrast to the way that many media members who favor sensationalism and superficiality do.

I will miss Brown very much, because for more than half of my life I have viewed any game that he did as must-see, appointment television. Anyone who would like to learn more about Brown should watch Brown's 2013 conversation with George Raveling, which includes timeless wisdom not only about basketball, but about life, as well as a wealth of information about basketball history from the 1950s through the 2000s. Recently, NBA.com's Ben Lambert did an interesting interview with Brown.

Hubie Brown was an excellent coach, a premier clinician, and the greatest NBA analyst of all-time. His presence on the NBA airwaves will be missed, but he will never be forgotten and his influence is indelible.

Further Reading:

Hubie Brown Interview (2006)

Seven Great "Hubie-isms" (2007)

Trading Places: LeBron Scores 37 as the "New" Cavs Beat the "New" Bulls (2008)

Hubie Brown Breaks Down Cleveland-Orlando and LeBron-Kobe (2009)

Sleepwalking Lakers End "Nightmare" Season by Being Swept (2013)

Hubie Brown Analyzes Russell Westbrook and the L.A. Lakers (January 28, 2022)

NBA's 75th Anniversary Celebration Game Provided Stirring Trip Down Memory Lane (April 7, 2022)

Cold Young Heats Up as Hawks Defeat Celtics, 130-122 (April 21, 2023)

Jayson Tatum Scores Game Seven Record 51 Points as Celtics Roll Over Listless 76ers, 112-88 (May 14, 2023)

New Look Knicks Rout Slumping Heat (January 17, 2024)

Sharpshooting Bucks Take Down Defenseless Suns, 140-129 (March 18, 2024)

Doncic is Doncic, Washington Shines Early, and Irving Dominates Fourth Quarter as Mavericks Beat Thunder, 105-101 (May 11, 2024)

Labels: Atlanta Hawks, Damian Lillard, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Hubie Brown, Joel Embiid, Kentucky Colonels, Memphis Grizzlies, Milwaukee Bucks, New York Knicks, Philadelphia 76ers, Tyrese Maxey

posted by David Friedman @ 4:26 AM

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Bucks Silence Thunder in NBA Cup Championship Game

Giannis Antetokounmpo authored a dominant triple double with game-high totals in points (26), rebounds (19), and assists (10) while leading the Milwaukee Bucks to a 97-81 win over the Oklahoma City Thunder in the NBA Cup Championship Game. Antetokounmpo shot 10-19 from the field, and he also accumulated three blocked shots plus two steals. Antetokounmpo earned the NBA Cup MVP award, which was based on his play throughout the NBA Cup tournament and not just in the Championship Game. Damian Lillard scored 23 points on 6-12 field goal shooting, including 5-10 from three point range. Brook Lopez and Gary Trent Jr. chipped in 13 points each. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander paced the Thunder with 21 points, but he shot just 8-24 from the field, including 2-9 from three point range. Jalen Williams scored 18 points on 8-20 field goal shooting. Isaiah Hartenstein had 16 points on 6-11 field goal shooting and he ripped down a team-high 12 rebounds; he scored 10 first quarter points on 4-4 field goal shooting, but he was quiet offensively the rest of the way.

I predicted that Antetokounmpo would dominate and that the Bucks would win. As I have repeatedly said for many years, size matters in the NBA. Antetokounmpo is a tough matchup for any team, but the small-ball Thunder are particularly ill-equipped to challenge him. His paint dominance forced the Thunder to send defensive help, which in turn created wide open three pointers that his teammates drained. Many of the headlines for game stories about this contest will probably focus on the Bucks shooting 17-40 (.425) from three point range, but to summarize Milwaukee's win that way is to miss the larger point (pun intended) that the bigger Bucks physically dominated the Thunder; the Bucks won the rebounding battle 52-43 and held the Thunder to 29-86 field goal shooting (.337), including 5-32 (.156) from three point range. However, the NBA Cup Championship Game statistics--both for individual players and for the teams--do not officially count as regular season statistics or as playoff statistics: the only tangible proof that this game happened is that ABC broadcast it, Commissioner Adam Silver handed out the championship and MVP trophies at the end, and each player on the winning team's roster received more than $500,000. 

The Thunder entered this game leading the West while boasting a historic 12.1 ppg point differential, plus league-leading averages in defensive field goal percentage and points allowed. Their defense versus the Bucks was not bad--they held the Bucks 16 points below the Bucks' scoring average--but they could not make three pointers and they would not stop taking three pointers. The way that the Thunder sputtered to just 31 second half points on 11-42 field goal shooting (.262) is exhibit A for what is wrong with the modern NBA: the sport is supposed to be basketball, not "jack up as many three pointers as possible." Yes, the Bucks deserve credit for playing excellent defense and exploiting their size advantage at both ends of the court, but in this game the Thunder outscored the Bucks in the paint 34-28. Although it is not realistic to think that the Thunder could or should have attempted a shot in the paint on every possession, their ratio of 32 three point attempts to 39 paint shot attempts was as stubborn as it was suboptimal; in the good old days, NBA teams regularly scored more than 100 points without attempting any three pointers, let alone attempting dozens of three pointers, so the notion that in order to score a lot of points it is necessary to match the other team three point shot for three point shot is foolish. Contrary to what some people will say, the Bucks did not win this game because they made more three pointers than the Thunder, nor did the Bucks win because they attempted more three pointers than the Thunder; the Bucks won this game because their size advantage overwhelmed the Thunder, and one of the consequences of that was that Bucks other than Antetokounmpo had wide open three point shot attempts.

A made three point shot is worth more than a made two point shot, but all missed shots are worth zero points. "Stat gurus" not only fail to understand that basic math, but they also ignore or minimize the reality that attacking the paint puts pressure on the opposing defense, can lead to free throw attempts, and better enables the offensive team to maintain good court balance for getting back on defense. If it were truly as simple as "Threes are worth more than twos" then of course the best strategy would be to attempt nothing but three pointers (which, sadly, is the direction in which the NBA seems to be headed), but correct basketball strategy is multidimensional. Looking at a broader view beyond this game, this is not just about how many three pointers are being attempted but also about when and how three pointers are being attempted. As mentioned above, the Bucks created high percentage, good rhythm three pointers by attacking the paint and then swinging the ball to the open man after the Thunder trapped Antetokounmpo. In contrast, after scoring 16 paint points in the first quarter to enjoy a 28-27 lead, the Thunder did not attack the paint enough. Sure, the Bucks deserve credit for using their size effectively in the paint, but the solution to that is not to settle for three pointers but rather to continue to attack the paint. It is easy for the smaller team to get frustrated and just settle for long jumpers, but that is not championship level basketball; playing small is no excuse for abandoning the paint.

Rivers said at halftime, "We have to win the three point shooting, and that's what we're doing." The Bucks opened the second half with back to back three pointers to establish their largest lead of the game up to that point, 57-50. I would argue that what mattered was not so much that the Bucks won the three point shooting, but rather how they did it: they attacked the paint as the first option, and shot open threes as the second option, which is much different than just jacking up three pointers without first probing the defense.

The Thunder are a much better team than they showed on Tuesday night, but this game showcased the difference between a seven game series and a winner take all format, and it highlighted how dangerous it is to rely on high variance three point shooting without having any backup plan.

Last year, the L.A. Lakers defeated the Indiana Pacers 123-109 to win the inaugural NBA Cup. The Pacers seemed to get a boost from their strong NBA Cup run, and they advanced to the Eastern Conference Finals for the first time since 2014, but the Lakers lost in the first round of the playoffs. It will be interesting to see how well this year's NBA Cup Finalists do in the tournament that really matters.

Labels: Damian Lillard, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee Bucks, NBA Cup, Oklahoma City Thunder, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

posted by David Friedman @ 1:07 AM

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