The NBA Play-In Tournament Gives Mediocre Teams an Opportunity to Salvage Their Disappointing Seasons
The NBA's public relations spin is that the Play-In Tournament added excitement to the final days of the 2024 regular season because most of the playoff seeding remained undetermined until the very end; the reality is that the Play-In Tournament diminished the importance of the regular season because a team can muddle through 82 games, win one or two Play-In Tournament games and have the same opportunity to advance in the playoffs as the teams that took the regular season seriously. It is sad that despite their huge guaranteed salaries the modern NBA players need so many extra incentives/gimmicks like the NBA Cup, the Player Participation Policy, and the Play-In Tournament to play hard, and it is disgraceful that when they are not provided extra incentives they produce travesties like the 2024 NBA All-Star Game.
This year's Play-In Tournament includes Miami visiting Philadelphia to determine the seventh seed in the Eastern Conference, and the L.A. Lakers visiting New Orleans to determine the seventh seed in the Western Conference. The eighth seeds in each conference will be determined after Atlanta visits Chicago, and Golden State visits Sacramento, with the winners of those games facing the losers of Philadelphia-Miami and New Orleans-L.A. respectively to lock up the final playoff spot in each conference.
It has become popular to view the Philadelphia 76ers as a legitimate threat to not only survive the Play-In Tournament but to then make a deep playoff run. That is a very optimistic view of a team that has a proven track record of playoff failures.
The 76ers solved a major problem by trading disgruntled playoff underachiever James Harden to the L.A. Clippers, but the advantage that they gained from getting rid of Harden was nullified because 2023 regular season MVP Joel Embiid missed 43 games, with most of his absences caused by a left knee injury that required surgery. The 76ers posted a 31-8 record when Embiid played, and a 16-27 record when he did not play. Unfortunately for the 76ers, Embiid has a history of (1) missing a lot of games due to injury and (2) not performing up to par in the playoffs. It should be emphasized that Harden's playoff choking is not the only reason that Embiid has never seen the Eastern Conference Finals without buying a ticket or watching on TV: Embiid has a 5-6 playoff series record, and he shot worse than .500 from the field in eight of those series. Not coincidentally, the 76ers won all three playoff series during which Embiid shot better than .500 from the field. Embiid's career playoff numbers (24.0 ppg, 10.9 rpg, .461 FG%, 2.8 apg, 1.8 bpg) do not look bad, but they are worse than his career regular season numbers (27.9 ppg, 11.2 rpg, .504 FG%, 3.6 apg, 1.7 bpg).
The 76ers' team statistical rankings this season are almost meaningless because they played more than half of the season without Embiid. They are a very good team with Embiid, and a mediocre team (at best) without him. The 76ers are 7-0 since Embiid returned to action--and they even won the two games that he sat out--with Embiid averaging 30.4 ppg in his five appearances. However, Embiid has never been in top physical condition during his career, and he is far from being in top physical condition now.
Side note: I am baffled by how often Embiid crashes to the floor despite being such a gifted athlete; I have played basketball for most of my life, and I would say that Embiid probably falls down more in one playoff series than I have fallen down in decades of playing competitive basketball. I am not sure if Embiid is flopping to draw fouls or just moving awkwardly, but he would be well advised to keep his huge body upright in order to avoid getting injured again.
The Miami Heat have been a baffling team for the past several years. They reached the NBA Finals in 2020 and 2023 in addition to reaching the Eastern Conference Finals in 2022, when they posted the Eastern Conference's best regular season record--but this is the second year in a row that they finished outside of the top six and thus fell into the Play-In Tournament. It does not seem as if Jimmy Butler and the Heat take the regular season very seriously--which contradicts all of the Heat's self-promotion about their unique "Heat culture"--but few teams have matched their recent postseason success. The Heat are anemic offensively (ranking 26th in scoring and 22nd in field goal percentage) and they get killed on the boards because they are undersized (ranking 26th in rebounding)
I predict that Embiid will lead the 76ers past the Heat in a home Play-In Tournament game, but it is unlikely that the 76ers will make much noise in the playoffs.
The Atlanta Hawks have lost six games in a row and seven of their last 10 games. They are awful defensively--ranking 28th in points allowed and 28th in defensive field goal percentage--and they have not accomplished much of note since their fluky run to the 2021 Eastern Conference Finals. Teams that are led by undersized guards who are averse to playing defense tend to not make much postseason noise. The Hawks led by Trae Young are very similar to the Portland teams led by Damian Lillard; Lillard's Trail Blazers made a fluky run to the 2019 Western Conference Finals but the Trail Blazers have won just three playoff games since 2019--and after being traded from Portland to Milwaukee, Lillard has helped destroy Milwaukee's once stout defense. The Hawks will endure a playoff drought similar to Portland's until the Hawks either trade Young or else surround him with a deep supporting cast of defensive-minded players.
The Chicago Bulls did not have a great season, but they finished three games ahead of the Hawks and the Bulls went 5-5 in their last 10 games. The Bulls started the season 5-14, but played better after former All-Star Zach LaVine suffered a season-ending ankle injury. DeMar DeRozan averaged a team-high 24.0 ppg while leading the league in minutes played per game (37.8).
When the moveable object meets the resistible force, anything can happen, but I predict that the Bulls will beat the Hawks.
The L.A. Lakers feature two members of the NBA's 75th Anniversary Team, LeBron James and Anthony Davis, yet they failed to finish in the top six in the Western Conference for the fourth straight season. Keep in mind that Kobe Bryant led the Lakers to the playoffs twice with Kwame Brown as his starting center, Smush Parker as his starting point guard, and the talented but inconsistent--to put it mildly--Lamar Odom as the Lakers' second best player. If not for the 2020 "bubble" NBA title, James' L.A. tenure would have to be viewed as a monumental failure from the standpoint of team success regardless of his high individual performance level--but the "bubble" title is a historical fact, and there are many great players who did not lead their teams to even one championship. The Lakers would be well served to remember and emulate how they won that title: they attacked the paint on offense, defended the paint on defense, and used their size to their advantage.
Much has been made of James' late career emergence as a high percentage three point shooter. While James deserves credit for improving this facet of his game, the Lakers are at their best when--to borrow a concept from chess--the threat of James shooting a three pointer is stronger than the execution. In other words, now that James has legit three point range opposing defenses have to guard him beyond the arc--but instead of settling for three pointers he should still attack the paint not only to take high percentage close range shots but also to draw fouls and to create easier shots for his teammates.
Davis is perhaps Embiid's top rival in the category of "regularly falling down hard for no apparent reason." Not coincidentally, Davis also is similar to Embiid in terms of missing a lot of games due to injury, although Davis broke form by playing in a career-high 76 games this season.
The New Orleans Pelicans are a solid team, and they have benefited tremendously from Zion Williamson playing in a career-high 70 games this season, but it would speak volumes about James and Davis if they fail to lead the Lakers past a team that no one should seriously consider to be a championship contender. I predict that the Lakers will beat the Pelicans, but not match last season's fluky run to the Western Conference Finals--and we know that the run was fluky because we have seen that over the course of a full season the vaunted "new look" Lakers sans scapegoats Russell Westbrook and Frank Vogel had to fight to finish eighth even with James and Davis avoiding injuries and eschewing load management.
The Golden State Warriors have at least three future Hall of Famers (Stephen Curry, Chris Paul, Klay Thompson) on their roster--and probably four, as Draymond Green will likely be voted in unless he does something so egregious before the end of his career that he becomes persona non grata--but the 2022 NBA champions finished 10th in the 15 team Western Conference. However, the Warriors closed the season strongly by winning eight of their last 10 games to earn a rematch with their opponent from the first round of the 2023 playoffs--but the rematch is in the Play-In Tournament, not the playoffs.
The Sacramento Kings finished only two games worse this season (46-36) than last season (48-34), but in the deep Western Conference they fell from all the way from the third seed last season to the ninth seed this season. They were terrible defensively last season (ranking 25th in points allowed and 29th in defensive field goal percentage), and not very good defensively this season (ranking 17th in points allowed and 21st in defensive field goal percentage). The Kings have dropped in the standings since Sixth Man of the Year candidate Malik Monk suffered a knee injury that will keep him out until the end of April, which means that he will not return this season unless the Kings make an extended playoff run.
The Warriors needed a 50 point game seven masterpiece from Stephen Curry to eliminate the Kings from the 2023 playoffs, but such heroics will not be required for the Warriors to beat the Kings in the 2024 Play-In Tournament.
If my predictions are correct then Miami will host Chicago and New Orleans will host Golden State in the last chance segment of the Play-In Tournament. I expect Miami to defeat Chicago, and Golden State to beat New Orleans.
The NBA is happy because the Play-In Tournament adds six games to the schedule, with the corresponding bump in TV revenue and ticket sales. Let's hope that the games come even close to living up to the relentless hype provided by the league and its media partners. Chicago versus Atlanta is not a game that anyone would ask for (other than fans of those teams), but we can hope that the Bulls and Hawks will make it a game worth remembering and talking about, and we can likewise hope that all of the Play-In Tournament games feature playoff caliber basketball.
Previous Play-In Tournament Articles:
2023
Zion Williamson's Refusal to Play Despite Being Healthy Embodies What is Wrong With Today's NBA (April 13, 2023)
L.A. Lakers Need Overtime to Dispatch Shorthanded Minnesota Timberwolves in Play-In Tournament (April 12, 2023)
The 2023 NBA Play-In Tournament: Grab Your Popcorn and Savor the Mediocrity! (April 10, 2023)
2022
Notes on the 2022 NBA Play-In Tournament (April 14, 2022)
Nets Clinch Seventh Seed After Outlasting Cavaliers, 115-108 (April 12, 2022)
The NBA is (Usually) Fantastic (Except When Teams Bench Their Starters for the Season's Last Game) (April 11, 2022)
2021
Nine Versus Ten Does Not Add Up to Fantastic Basketball (May 20, 2021)
Thoughts on the NBA's Play-In Tournament (May 17, 2021)
Labels: Atlanta Hawks, Chicago Bulls, Golden State Warriors, L.A. Lakers, Miami Heat, New Orleans Pelicans, Philadelphia 76ers, Sacramento Kings
posted by David Friedman @ 10:19 PM
5 Comments:
I think the West play-in teams might be more dangerous than people realize because folks get blinded by the gap in seeding rather than the gap in wins. Only 11 games separate the 1 seed and the 10 seed. That's not nothing, but it's also a margin we've seen a lot of playoff teams overcome. For contrast, in the East, that's smaller than the gap between the 1 and the 2 (14) and the same as the gap between 6 and 10.
It was only two years back the 64 win Suns lost to a Dallas team that won 12 fewer games in the second round, and history is full of similar upsets.
This applies equally to all the Play-In teams, not just the buzzy ones, but if Lakers and/or Warriors fans are looking for hope, the '95 Rockets were a similarly aging, former champion team that beat a Jazz team that won 13 more games than they did, a Suns team that won 12, a Spurs team that won 15, and a Magic team that won 10. A "worst case" playoff run for an 8-seed this year would see them facing gaps of 11, 5, 11, and 18 wins. If something happens to the Celtics on the other side of the bracket, that Finals gap would become no more than 4.
So while losing is certainly more likely than winning, there is ample precedent for teams overcoming this sort of record-gap, even if the seeding gap in the era of the Play-In seems larger. The West was very condensed this year.
"The L.A. Lakers feature two members of the NBA's 75th Anniversary Team, LeBron James and Anthony Davis, yet they failed to finish in the top six in the Western Conference for the fourth straight season. Keep in mind that Kobe Bryant led the Lakers to the playoffs twice with Kwame Brown as his starting center, Smush Parker as his starting point guard, and the talented but inconsistent--to put it mildly--Lamar Odom as the Lakers' second best player."
--> aren't you comparing Prime Kobe w/ Well-Past-Prime Lebron (overall game, if not scoring)? If so, how is that fair or meaningful?
Anonymous:
The standings are stranger than usual this season because there were so many terrible teams on which all the not terrible teams could feast. For example, the Lakers went 2-0 versus Charlotte, 2-0 versus Detroit, 3-1 versus Memphis, 3-0 versus Portland, 2-1 versus San Antonio, 2-0 versus Toronto, and 2-0 versus Washington. That 16-2 record inflates the Lakers' overall record to the extent that their overall record likely does not reflect the real gap between them and this season's legit contenders.
In short, I find it more meaningful that the Lakers finished behind seven teams than that they finished 10 games behind Denver. The Lakers will face Denver in the first round after going 0-3 versus Denver in the regular season in the wake of being swept 4-0 by Denver in last year's Western Conference Finals. The Nuggets are a class above the Lakers, and the Lakers in no way remind me of the 1995 Rockets: take out the 2020 "bubble" title, and the Lakers have advanced past the first round just once since LeBron joined the team in 2018. The James-led Lakers have spent six seasons showing us who they are.
Anonymous:
I am comparing Kobe's ability to lead a horrible supporting cast to the playoffs with James' inability to lead the Lakers very far despite being paired with a Top 75 player who is in his prime plus a host of good role players.
Regarding age level comparisons, it is worth remembering that Kobe was still playing at an MVP level at age 34 when he ruptured his Achilles under the weight of carrying the 2013 Lakers to the playoffs with little help from injured/disinterested Gasol, and injured/ancient Nash (though he did have end of prime Dwight Howard, but no one can seriously compare 2013 Howard with prime Anthony Davis). Kobe was not the same player after the Achilles injury, so one cannot compare Kobe age 35-37 to LeBron at those ages.
Based on individual statistics, James is the best player of his age in NBA history--but my point is that throughout his career (and not just this season) James' individual numbers do not always correlate with team success. Also, James--and his media acolytes--often seem more focused on pro-James narratives than on what it takes to win.
The 2024 Lakers would supposedly be terrible without James--but the Lakers went 6-5 without James, including a win against the league-leading Celtics, and two wins against the Bucks, who were on track to finish second in the East before Antetokounmpo got hurt. Project 6-5 over 82 games, and that works out to 45 wins. The Lakers went 47-35 this season. Granted there are caveats about sample size, strength of schedule, etc. but the eye test and the results demonstrate that James' gaudy numbers are not correlating with team success.
James is still playing at an All-NBA level individually, so it is fair to ask why his team is not performing better when he plays. If James were an over the hill player not playing a major role then obviously it would not be fair to give him much credit or blame for his team's record--but that is not the case here.
Hmm, i feel the play in tournament will lead to more and more resting in the normal season, because a 10th place will be enough to have a shoot at the playoffs. To be best in a conference might be of some worth (homecourt advantage), but especially with older players, health and freshness might be more important. This might be especially sucessfull, if the team is well suited to playoff basketball (defence, a healthy two point game).
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