20 Second Timeout

NBA Wags a Stern Finger at Draymond Green for Confronting a Fan During a Game

The NBA has reportedly issued a "warning" to Draymond Green after Green went chest to chest with a courtside fan in New Orleans on Sunday as Green's Golden State Warriors defeated the New Orleans Pelicans, 124-106. The fan had been chanting "Angel Reese" at Green after Green missed several shots. Reese is a WNBA player who is notorious for seemingly padding her rebound totals by collecting her own missed shots. Green finished with eight points on 3-13 field goal shooting, 10 rebounds (including four offensive rebounds), six assists, and five turnovers; in the first quarter, Green scored 0 points on 0-7 field goal shooting, and he had four offensive rebounds (all of which were from his own missed layups or attempted tip in shots). The fan's chanting may have been annoying to Green, but it was not vulgar, and it pertained to the action on the court, as opposed to being a random or offensive insult. Fans have a right to cheer or boo, and to heckle as long as the heckling is not vulgar/offensive and not interfering with other fans being able to watch the game.

It is not clear what Green thought that he could accomplish by approaching the fan, who did not back away and did not seem intimidated by Green; it is also not clear what the NBA thinks that it can accomplish by issuing an unofficial warning to Green, who has a long history of violent misconduct despite being fined and suspended multiple times; if forcing Green to miss games and lose money did not straighten him out, a verbal warning is unlikely to have much impact.

Green has quite a rap sheet demonstrating his immaturity and his lack of emotional control. In the 2016 playoffs, Green kicked Steven Adams in the groin, and Green was suspended for game five of the NBA Finals after striking LeBron James in the groin in game four. Green consistently gets away with running roughshod over referees with incessant (and often vulgar) complaining/whining, he viciously punched then-teammate Jordan Poole in 2022, he stomped on Domantas Sabonis twice while Sabonis was down on the floor during a 2023 playoff game, he choked Rudy Gobert during a 2023 regular season game, and he slugged Jusuf Nurkic in the face during a 2023 regular season game. 

Green specializes in attacking players who are (1) not standing up or are in an otherwise compromised position and (2) are either smaller than he is or are clearly not going to fight back. Green had a chance to confront Ron Artest/Metta World Peace several years ago and somehow managed to not attempt a chokehold, groin kick, or punch--because Green is a bully who knows better than to pick a fight with someone who is crazier or tougher than he is. There may not be that many players left in the NBA who are willing to fight at the cost of being fined/suspended, but Green knows very well who they are and he gives them a wide berth. However, people like Green who think that they know who to mess with only have to make one mistake to end up in a precarious situation in which either they get injured or they injure someone else--and Green is fortunate that the players he has struck, kicked, and choked did not end up with serious injuries. What if Poole had suffered brain damage or Gobert had suffered a broken neck? There are many people in prison because the people who they hit in the face or who they choked suffered serious or even fatal injuries.

Green also has an outsized belief not only regarding his worth/power, but the worth/power of athletes in general vis a vis the owners who employ them (and the fans who ultimately pay their salaries by purchasing tickets and merchandise). After the NBA suspended Green for choking Gobert, I lamented Green's anger control issues and inflated sense of entitlement: 

Green is the poster child for athletes who are paid far more than they could ever earn doing anything else, and who have developed a sense of entitlement without a corresponding sense of responsibility regarding their conduct. If Green did not have the NBA to protect him, there is a strong possibility that he would be in jail--or dead--as a consequence of his inability to control his anger. Sadly, neither of those possibilities can be ruled out if he does not seek help. Gobert referred to Green as a "clown" and I can understand why he feels that way, but this is no laughing matter: Green needs help both to protect others and to protect himself, because his behavior goes well beyond just being a physical player. In the sense that Green is overrated, Gobert is correct: without the injured Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson around to carry the load, the Warriors went 15-50 in 2019-20 as Green averaged 8.0 ppg on .389 field goal shooting while looking very much like a role player and very little like the Hall of Famer he is purported to be. Green seems to get very angry when his limitations as a player are pointed out, but that does not change the reality that he is a limited player whose specific talents can be helpful for a team already stacked with talent but don't make much impact on winning otherwise. 

In December 2023, I warned that the NBA is taking a risk by not sufficiently disciplining Green for his out of control violent behavior:

If the NBA keeps protecting Green from the natural consequences of his actions, Green is going to eventually do something so egregious that the NBA will no longer be able to protect him because the judicial system will be compelled to intervene. Draymond Green is a 6-6, 230 walking time bomb that is going to explode in the league's face if Commissioner Silver does not take strong action--and if time bomb Green explodes, the league is not going to be able to successfully argue in court that the explosion was not foreseeable given Green's track record of violent behavior. 

Green has some basketball skills, but he is not as good as he thinks he is. Green should not be compared to Hall of Famers Dennis Rodman or Ben Wallace. Rodman won seven straight rebounding titles, and would have been a dominant rebounder regardless of who his teammates were. Wallace won two rebounding titles and one shot blocking title, and he ranked in the top 10 in the league in those categories seven times each overall. Neither Rodman nor Wallace could have been the best player on a championship team, but both were statistically dominant players. In contrast, Green has only led the NBA in a statistical category once (steals per game in 2016-17), he has never ranked in the top ten in rebounds per game or blocked shots per game, and he is heavily dependent on being surrounded by great players who do most of the work, as I noted last year when I assessed Green's legacy:

Green is going to ride his triple single career averages (8.7 ppg, 7.0 rpg, 5.6 apg) all the way to the Naismith Memorial Basketball Hall of Fame because he was lucky enough to play alongside Kevin Durant, Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, and Andre Iguodala. Is "lucky" a fair adjective? What would Green's career have looked like without those guys? Glad you asked: in the 2019-20 season, Iguodala and Durant were gone (Green played a role in chasing Durant away, but that is another story), Thompson missed the whole season due to injury, and Curry played in just five games due to injury. Green showed the world who he really is as a player, averaging 8.0 ppg on .389 field goal shooting along with 6.2 rpg and 6.2 apg for a 15-50 team. So, yes, "lucky" seems about right.  

Green will be 36 years old soon, and his pedestrian numbers so far this season (7.9 ppg on .391 field goal shooting, 5.8 rpg) indicate that his playing days will be over soon. Green's retirement will be a mixed blessing: the good news is that we will no longer have to watch him deliver cheap shots to opposing players and we will no longer have to listen to his self-serving excuses for his lack of emotional self-control; the bad news is that he likely will be paid millions of dollars per year to be a commentator for one of the NBA's media partners, turning that media partner's pregame show into a mess almost as unwatchable as any pregame show featuring "Screamin' A" Smith. Green is supposed to have a high basketball IQ, but that has not been evident thus far when he has been a TV commentator; to cite just one example, when he participated in TNT's coverage of the 2024 Western Conference Finals he was more interested in bashing Gobert than in providing intelligent analysis, as I pointed out in my game two recap:

An intelligent, unbiased commentator would talk about the final possession of the game when Dallas gave up an open three pointer to Naz Reid even though Reid was the hottest three point shooter in the game. Reid's shot barely missed, but just as it could be argued that Minnesota should not have given up a three pointer to Doncic with a two point lead it could also be argued that Dallas should not have given up an open shot to Reid, one of the few Minnesota players who shot well in this game.

Instead, Green focused his attention on Gobert, sounding like a little kid on the playground teasing another kid as opposed to sounding like an intelligent, unbiased commentator analyzing what happened. It is valid to question why Minnesota left Gobert in the game for the last defensive possession instead of going small, switching everything, and forcing Dallas to shoot a two point shot--but it is silly to act as if Gobert is personally responsible for Doncic hitting the kind of shot that he has hit many times before against many other players.  

Gobert has one of the best plus/minus numbers overall during the 2024 playoffs, and the Timberwolves have outscored the Mavericks during his minutes this series while being outscored when Gobert is out of the game. I would not be surprised if "Screamin' A" Smith acted as if an entire 48 minute NBA game can be boiled down to one shot, but intelligent commentators understand that the last play is not necessarily what decided the outcome. Here, the Timberwolves enjoyed a 16 point third quarter lead before their offense fell apart; are we supposed to pretend like all of those empty offensive possessions had nothing to do with the final result?

Green is either an idiot or a buffoon: he either does not know what he is talking about, or he does not care how foolish he sounds. It is interesting that Kenny Smith was the only person on the TNT set who was willing to even tentatively challenge Green's nonsense both before and after the game. Smith noted that the Timberwolves have outscored the Mavericks during Gobert's minutes, and Smith emphasized that Doncic could have made that last shot over anyone, not just Gobert. Charles Barkley and Shaquille O'Neal did not contradict Green, but they correctly focused on Towns' shortcomings and they made the valid point that if the Timberwolves are going to play big then their big men must play with force in the paint. The Timberwolves' problem is that they are not attacking the paint offensively--and that problem must be fixed by Edwards and Towns. The problem is not drop coverage or Rudy Gobert or any other nonsense spewed by Green. If Green keeps lying about Gobert it would be great if someone had the guts to tell the truth about Green, and his triple single exploits on .389 field goal shooting for the 15-50 Warriors during the 2019-20 season when Green did not have Kevin Durant, Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, or Andre Iguodala to do the heavy lifting. I'll double down on what I said before: Green will be inducted in the Basketball Hall of Fame primarily because he was lucky enough to play alongside those four players. 

It is also worth mentioning that Green went 0-3 versus Minnesota this season, and 1-2 last season (Golden State beat Minnesota once in 2022-23 when Green did not play, an example of addition by subtraction). If Green is so smart, maybe he should use that big brain to figure out how to do better than 1-5 versus the player and team that he keeps mocking.

The NBA and TNT should have been embarrassed to put Green on the air in the first place after his numerous violent incidents, and they should be even more embarrassed by how he is doing his part-time job. When David Stern was the NBA's Commissioner, he took the consistent position that it was important to promote the game and uplift the players. How does it promote the game to uplift a violent and petty person like Green to a position of prominence so that Green can mock the league's Defensive Player of the Year? If Gobert is as bad as Green suggests, then either the league is trash, or the media members who do the voting are idiots; neither scenario is a good look for the league. 

The NBA under Commissioner Adam Silver has coddled Green for too long, and no one should be surprised when Green does something so egregious that the NBA will not be able to protect Green from legal consequences. What if Green had hit the New Orleans fan like he hit Poole? Green would be in jail, and he, the Warriors, and the NBA would likely be facing a multi-million dollar lawsuit. It is easy to retort that Green did not hit the fan because Green knows what boundaries he cannot cross, but Green has crossed multiple boundaries already, so relying on him to exercise good judgment is quite a gamble, even for a league that does not mind being in bed with legalized gambling operations.

Labels: Adam Silver, Domantas Sabonis, Draymond Green, Golden State Warriors, Jordan Poole, Jusuf Nurkic, NBA, New Orleans Pelicans, Rudy Gobert

posted by David Friedman @ 12:05 PM

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Lindy's Pro Basketball 2025-26 is on Sale Now

When Lindy's Pro Basketball appears in stores you know that the NBA season will soon begin. The 2025-26 edition of Lindy's Pro Basketball has 30 team previews, plus nine feature stories: "Scopin' the NBA" (David Friedman and Roland Lazenby recap major off-season stories), "Flagg Sidesteps Comparisons" (D.J. Siddiqi discusses the 2025 number one overall draft pick), "The NBA Gets Defensive" (Michael Bradley dissects Oklahoma City's championship-winning defense), "J-Drip" (Roland Lazenby profiles Jalen Williams), "Keeping the Faith" (Lyn Scarborough recounts the faith journey of A.J. Griffin), "NBA Report Card" (Roland Lazenby grades each team's off-season moves), "A Look Ahead" (Carl Berman scouts the 2026 NBA Draft), "NBA Fantasy Guide" (Mike Ashley provides advice for fantasy basketball enthusiasts), and "A Look Back" (Lazenby recalls the 1995-96 season when the Chicago Bulls went 72-10 en route to winning the first championship of their second "three-peat").

In addition to contributing to "Scopin' the NBA" for the first time--I submitted the pieces about the Player Participation Policy, Junior Bridgeman's legacy, Oklahoma City's pressure defense, and Gregg Popovich's retirement from coaching--I wrote eight team previews and sidebar articles this year: Dallas Mavericks, Golden State Warriors, New Orleans Pelicans, Oklahoma City Thunder, Portland Trail Blazers, Sacramento Kings, San Antonio Spurs, and Utah Jazz. My sidebar articles discuss, respectively, the Mavericks' historic tendency to make risky player moves, the Jimmy Butler enigma, Saddiq Bey's comeback attempt, Alex Caruso's defense, Toumani Camara and the Dayton connection to the NBA, the Kings' poor record since 2006, Gregg Popovich's legacy/Mitch Johnson's burden, and Utah's front office keeps it all in the Ainge family.

This is the 17th year that I have contributed to Lindy's Pro Basketball dating back to 2005 (with interruptions for the 2011 lockout, my law school attendance in 2014-15, and 2020 because Lindy's Pro Basketball was not published in the wake of COVID-19). As always, I am grateful to Roland Lazenby for providing the opportunity to contribute to Lindy's Pro Basketball, and I am proud to be associated with the finished product.

If you do not see the magazine in any stores in your area, you can order a copy online. 

Selected Previous Articles About Lindy's Pro Basketball:

Lindy's Pro Basketball 2024-25 is on Sale Now  

Lindy's Pro Basketball 2023-24 is on Sale Now  

Lindy's Pro Basketball 2022-23 is on Sale Now 

Lindy's Pro Basketball 2021-2022 is in Stores Now 

"Forever Mamba" Pays Tribute to Kobe Bryant 

Look for Lindy's Pro Basketball 2019-20 in Stores Now 

Lindy's Pro Basketball 2018-19 Is Available Now 

Lindy's Pro Basketball 2017-18 is on Sale Now

Lindy's Pro Basketball 2016-17 is Available Now! 

Labels: Dallas Mavericks, Golden State Warriors, Lindy's Pro Basketball, New Orleans Pelicans, Oklahoma City Thunder, Portland Trail Blazers, Roland Lazenby, Sacramento Kings, San Antonio Spurs, Utah Jazz

posted by David Friedman @ 11:37 PM

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Cavaliers Own NBA's Only Perfect Record After Nuggets Silence Thunder

The Cleveland Cavaliers not only own the best record in the NBA, but they are enjoying their best start in franchise history after beating the New Orleans Pelicans 131-122 to improve to 9-0.  Kenny Atkinson is the first coach in NBA history to start out 9-0 in his first season with a new team. Statistics through nine games of an 82 game season are classic "small sample size theater," but it is still noteworthy that the Cavaliers own the third highest scoring average (123.2 ppg) in a 9-0 start in NBA history, trailing only the 1960-61 Philadelphia Warriors (126.8 ppg) and the 1990-91 Portland Trail Blazers (125.0 ppg). The 1961 Warriors featured Wilt Chamberlain, who led the league in scoring that season (38.4 ppg), and they finished second in the four team Eastern Division behind the powerful Boston Celtics. The 1991 Trail Blazers were led by Clyde Drexler (21.5 ppg) and they finished with the league's best record before being upset by Magic Johnson's L.A. Lakers in the Western Conference Finals; the Trail Blazers reached the NBA Finals in 1990 and 1992.

The Cavaliers rank first in the NBA in scoring, first in field goal percentage (.526), ninth in defensive field goal percentage (.456), and 11th in points allowed (110.6 ppg). One possible area of concern is that they rank just 23rd in rebounding (42.1 rpg). Last season, the Cavaliers ranked 20th in scoring (112.6 ppg) 12th in field goal percentage (.479), sixth in defensive field goal percentage (.463), seventh in points allowed (110.2 ppg), and 17th in rebounding (43.3 rpg). So, it would be fair to say that thus far their offense is much more efficient, and their defense is slightly less efficient. It is important to understand that Cleveland has beaten several teams that were bad last season and are unlikely to be good this season, including Detroit, Toronto, and Washington. The Cavaliers also have two wins against the struggling Milwaukee Bucks. A good case could be made that Cleveland's only "quality" win is at Madison Square Garden against the New York Knicks--but even the Knicks, who were 50-32 last season, are just 3-4 so far this season.

In short, the Cavaliers have started the season strongly, but we will know a lot more about how good they really are after they play some tougher competition.

Donovan Mitchell led a balanced Cleveland attack with a game-high tying 29 points, but he had a lot of help. Jarrett Allen had 16 points plus a game-high 14 rebounds, Caris LeVert added 16 points, six rebounds, and six assists, Evan Mobley delivered 15 points, nine rebounds, and three blocked shots, and Darius Garland chipped in with 14 points and a game-high nine assists. 

The Pelicans slipped to 3-6, and face a rough stretch because they are without the services of both of their injured starting guards, C.J. McCollum and Dejounte Murray. Zion Williamson scored a game-high tying 29 points, Jose Alvarado added 27 points, five assists, and three steals, and Brandon Ingram had 20 points, five rebounds, and five assists. 

Oklahoma City owned the only other perfect record (7-0) in the NBA heading into Wednesday's action, but the Thunder fell 124-122 to the Denver Nuggets, who improved to 5-3. Russell Westbrook scored a game-high tying 29 points, grabbed six rebounds, and passed for six assists. Plus/minus numbers are interesting, but sometimes are "noisy" in small sample sizes, and this game is an example of Westbrook's plus/minus number (-14) not reflecting his impact. Westbrook scored or assisted on 15 consecutive points as the Nuggets rallied from a 16 point deficit to beat a team that earned the number one seed in the Western Conference last season with a 57-25 record (beating out 57-25 Denver on tiebreaks) and is expected to be a championship contender this season.

Jalen Williams led the Thunder with 29 points, matching Westbrook's output, and he added 10 rebounds plus nine assists. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander had 28 points, six assists, and a game-high eight turnovers. Chet Holmgren scored 15 points and tied Williams for team-high honors with 10 rebounds, but he shot just 5-14 from the field.

Denver Coach Michael Malone praised Westbrook after the game: "And what I love about Russell Westbrook: 17-year vet, leopards don't change their spots, but he is trying so hard to be disciplined. He's trying to do the things we're asking him to do, and I appreciate that so much. Because a lot of times at 17 years in, you are who you are. But he cares, man. He is so invested in this team and what he's bringing to this team, and he's so hard on himself. I can coach a guy like Russell Westbrook any day."  

It has become fashionable in the past few years to pick on Westbrook and bash Westbrook, but commentators like Hubie Brown who understand basketball praise Westbrook. Westbrook has not shot well through the first eight games, but overall he is providing a lift both as a reserve and now as a starter with Jamal Murray sidelined due to a concussion.

Nikola Jokic finished with 23 points, a game-high 20 rebounds, and a game-high 16 assists. Those boxscore numbers look like typographical errors, but they are just one more chapter in what is shaping up to possibly be yet another MVP season: Jokic, who has won the regular season MVP in three of the past four seasons (including last season), currently leads the league in rebounding (13.5 rpg) and assists (11.0 apg) while ranking fourth in scoring (28.8 ppg).

Justin Termine, the self-proclaimed "entertainer" who admits to not being a journalist, has repeatedly trashed the Nuggets for their roster moves. It is important to understand that part of his agenda is to elevate Jokic by asserting that Jokic has no help around him. I agree with Termine that Jokic is the NBA's best player, but I disagree that it is necessary to rip apart Jokic's supporting cast. The Nuggets just beat the powerful Thunder without both Murray and starting forward Aaron Gordon, who is expected to miss multiple weeks with a calf injury. Maybe this game is an aberration, but I think that Jokic, Westbrook, and company can hold down the fort until Murray and Gordon return.

The Nuggets rank fourth in the NBA in scoring (119.0 ppg), third in rebounding (48.3 rpg), and fourth in assists (29.4 apg). They are not good defensively, and must improve in that category in order to be a playoff contender.

Labels: Cleveland Cavaliers, Denver Nuggets, New Orleans Pelicans, Nikola Jokic, Oklahoma City Thunder, Russell Westbrook

posted by David Friedman @ 10:19 AM

2 comments

Lindy's Pro Basketball 2024-25 is on Sale Now

The annual publication of Lindy's Pro Basketball is a happy milestone for basketball fans because that means the NBA season is just around the corner. The 2024-25 edition of Lindy's Pro Basketball has 30 team previews, plus nine feature stories: "Scopin' the NBA" (Mike Ashley recaps the major off-season stories), "The Brunson Burner" (Mark Medina profiles Jalen Brunson), "Here Comes the Cash" (Michael Bradley details the implications of the NBA's big new broadcasting deals), "Edwards Learns His Own Hard Lessons" (Mark Medina discusses Anthony Edwards' emergence as a star), "Keeping the Faith" (Lyn Scarborough demonstrates how Jonathan Isaac is making a difference), "NBA Report Card" (Roland Lazenby grades each team's off-season moves), "A Look Ahead" (Carl Berman scouts the 2025 NBA Draft), "NBA Fantasy Guide" (Mike Ashley provides advice for fantasy basketball enthusiasts), and "A Look Back" (Lazenby looks back at how NBA arenas have evolved).

I wrote six team previews and sidebar articles this year: Dallas Mavericks, Golden State Warriors, New Orleans Pelicans, Oklahoma City Thunder, Portland Trail Blazers, and San Antonio Spurs. My sidebar articles discuss, respectively, Daniel Gafford/Dereck Lively II, the end of the "Splash Brothers" era, Dejounte Murray, Chet Holmgren, why "Tanking to the Top" is a myth, and the Spurs' playoff prospects after tanking to obtain Victor Wembanyama.

This is the 16th year that I have contributed to Lindy's Pro Basketball dating back to 2005 (with interruptions for the 2011 lockout, my law school attendance in 2014-15, and 2020 because Lindy's Pro Basketball was not published in the wake of COVID-19). As always, I am grateful to Roland Lazenby for providing the opportunity to contribute to Lindy's Pro Basketball, and I am proud to be associated with the finished product.

If you do not see the magazine in any stores in your area, you can order a copy online. 

Selected Previous Articles About Lindy's Pro Basketball:

Lindy's Pro Basketball 2023-24 is on Sale Now  

Lindy's Pro Basketball 2022-23 is on Sale Now 

Lindy's Pro Basketball 2021-2022 is in Stores Now 

"Forever Mamba" Pays Tribute to Kobe Bryant 

Look for Lindy's Pro Basketball 2019-20 in Stores Now 

Lindy's Pro Basketball 2018-19 Is Available Now 

Lindy's Pro Basketball 2017-18 is on Sale Now

Lindy's Pro Basketball 2016-17 is Available Now! 

Labels: Dallas Mavericks, Golden State Warriors, Lindy's Pro Basketball, New Orleans Pelicans, Oklahoma City Thunder, Portland Trail Blazers, Roland Lazenby, San Antonio Spurs

posted by David Friedman @ 5:33 PM

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Lakers Clinch West's Seventh Seed, Pelicans Will Host Kings to Determine West's Eighth Seed

The L.A. Lakers built an 18 point third quarter lead before surviving a furious New Orleans comeback to defeat the Pelicans 110-106 in the first game of the 2024 Play-In Tournament and secure the seventh seed in the Western Conference. LeBron James led the Lakers in scoring (23 points) and assists (nine) while also grabbing nine rebounds, swiping three steals, and blocking two shots, but he shot just 6-20 from the field, including 1-5 from three point range. It will be interesting to see if his poor shooting is an aberration, or if James is wearing down after playing more games (71) and logging more minutes (2504) than he has in any season since 2017-18. D'Angelo Russell scored 21 points and had a game-best +16 plus/minus number. Anthony Davis added 20 points and a game-high 15 rebounds. After the game, Lakers coach Darvin Ham mocked what he called the "insane asylum sources" that had declared that the Lakers should lose this game on purpose to avoid a playoff matchup with Denver.

Zion Williamson poured in a game-high 40 points on 17-27 field goal shooting while also snaring 11 rebounds. Williamson's floater tied the score at 95 with 3:19 remaining in the fourth quarter, but he came up lame after the play and was not able to play the closing minutes; he apparently suffered a left hamstring injury, the extent of which will not be known until after further examination. The Pelicans tied the score twice more down the stretch but never took the lead, and the Lakers sealed the win by making four straight free throws in the final 10 seconds. No Pelican other than Williamson scored more than 12 points in a game that was there for the taking if Brandon Ingram (11 points on 4-12 field goal shooting, -16 plus/minus number), C.J. McCollum (nine points on 4-15 field goal shooting, -17), or Jonas Valanciunas (four points on 1-7 field goal shooting, -13) had just been a little subpar instead of abysmal. The Pelicans outrebounded the Lakers 50-41, and outscored them in the paint 62-36 as the Lakers shot just .417 from the field. Looking at the boxscore, it is difficult to understand how the Lakers won, but they did enjoy advantages in three point field goals made (14-9) and free throws made (26-11), although the latter number is a bit skewed because the Pelicans had to intentionally foul near the end of the game.

Since joining the L.A. Lakers in 2018, LeBron James has led the team to one NBA title (2020) and one NBA Cup title (2024), but the Lakers have also failed to finish in the top six in the Western Conference standings for each of the past four seasons. They lost in the first round in 2021, missed the playoffs entirely in 2022, and enjoyed a fluky run to the 2023 Western Conference Finals after surviving the Play-In Tournament. Nevertheless, one can expect that the LeBron James p.r. machine will crank into high gear during the next few days, trying to convince the world that it is a great feat for James and Davis--honored as members of the NBA's 75th Anniversary Team--to sneak into the playoffs via the Play-In Tournament. Even though the NBA does not officially keep statistics for the Play-In Tournament games, it will not be too long before someone declares that James is the greatest player in Play-In Tournament history (without questioning why a player of his historical stature annually appears in the Play-In Tournament). Regardless of what you read or hear prior to the first game of the Lakers' first round series versus the Nuggets on Saturday night, don't be fooled into believing that barely beating a non-contending team in one game will somehow translate into winning a seven game playoff series against the reigning NBA champion Denver Nuggets, who swept the Lakers in the 2023 Western Conference Finals.

The Pelicans will host the Sacramento Kings in a Play-Tournament game to determine the Western Conference's eighth seed. The Kings earned their way into that matchup by dismantling the 2022 NBA champion Golden State Warriors, 118-94. During the TNT pregame show, Charles Barkley said that the Kings would need a big game from Keegan Murray to make up for the absence of Malik Monk. Murray delivered a game-high 32 points as every Sacramento starter scored at least 15 points. De'Aaron Fox contributed 24 points and six assists, while Domantas Sabonis added 16 points, 12 rebounds, and seven assists.  One Play-In Tournament game win does not wipe out the disappointment from losing to the Warriors in a seven game first round series last year--but it is a step in the right direction for a Sacramento team that seemed to regress this season after an impressive 2023 campaign.

Stephen Curry scored a team-high 22 points for Golden State, but he also had a game-high six turnovers. He looked like an All-Star, not like a legend and a four-time NBA champion. Jonathan Kuminga (16 points) and Moses Moody (16 points) provided a lift off of the bench, but Draymond Green had little impact (12 points, six assists, three rebounds), and Klay Thompson was awful (0 points on 0-10 field goal shooting). 

The Warriors have had the Kings' number in recent years, so the fact that the Warriors could not muster up the necessary energy and effort to pull out an elimination game against the injury-depleted Kings speaks volumes. Barkley has said all season long that the Lakers and Warriors stink. The Lakers still have at least four games left in their season, but the Warriors have already had their TNT "Gone Fishin'" moment. The Warriors did not get much mileage out of having the NBA's highest payroll in 2023-24--paying $30.8 million to Chris "Greatest Leader in the NBA" Paul proved to be particularly wasteful--and one can expect some serious cost-cutting and roster upheaval in the wake of not just this loss but also a season that did not match the organization's lofty expectations.

Labels: Anthony Davis, Damontas Sabonis, De'Aaron Fox, Golden State Warriors, Keegan Murray, L.A. Lakers, LeBron James, New Orleans Pelicans, Sacramento Kings, Stephen Curry, Zion Williamson

posted by David Friedman @ 2:20 AM

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The NBA Play-In Tournament Gives Mediocre Teams an Opportunity to Salvage Their Disappointing Seasons

The NBA's public relations spin is that the Play-In Tournament added excitement to the final days of the 2024 regular season because most of the playoff seeding remained undetermined until the very end; the reality is that the Play-In Tournament diminished the importance of the regular season because a team can muddle through 82 games, win one or two Play-In Tournament games and have the same opportunity to advance in the playoffs as the teams that took the regular season seriously. It is sad that despite their huge guaranteed salaries the modern NBA players need so many extra incentives/gimmicks like the NBA Cup, the Player Participation Policy, and the Play-In Tournament to play hard, and it is disgraceful that when they are not provided extra incentives they produce travesties like the 2024 NBA All-Star Game.

This year's Play-In Tournament includes Miami visiting Philadelphia to determine the seventh seed in the Eastern Conference, and the L.A. Lakers visiting New Orleans to determine the seventh seed in the Western Conference. The eighth seeds in each conference will be determined after Atlanta visits Chicago, and Golden State visits Sacramento, with the winners of those games facing the losers of Philadelphia-Miami and New Orleans-L.A. respectively to lock up the final playoff spot in each conference.

It has become popular to view the Philadelphia 76ers as a legitimate threat to not only survive the Play-In Tournament but to then make a deep playoff run. That is a very optimistic view of a team that has a proven track record of playoff failures.

The 76ers solved a major problem by trading disgruntled playoff underachiever James Harden to the L.A. Clippers, but the advantage that they gained from getting rid of Harden was nullified because 2023 regular season MVP Joel Embiid missed 43 games, with most of his absences caused by a left knee injury that required surgery. The 76ers posted a 31-8 record when Embiid played, and a 16-27 record when he did not play. Unfortunately for the 76ers, Embiid has a history of (1) missing a lot of games due to injury and (2) not performing up to par in the playoffs. It should be emphasized that Harden's playoff choking is not the only reason that Embiid has never seen the Eastern Conference Finals without buying a ticket or watching on TV: Embiid has a 5-6 playoff series record, and he shot worse than .500 from the field in eight of those series. Not coincidentally, the 76ers won all three playoff series during which Embiid shot better than .500 from the field. Embiid's career playoff numbers (24.0 ppg, 10.9 rpg, .461 FG%, 2.8 apg, 1.8 bpg) do not look bad, but they are worse than his career regular season numbers (27.9 ppg, 11.2 rpg, .504 FG%, 3.6 apg, 1.7 bpg).

The 76ers' team statistical rankings this season are almost meaningless because they played more than half of the season without Embiid. They are a very good team with Embiid, and a mediocre team (at best) without him. The 76ers are 7-0 since Embiid returned to action--and they even won the two games that he sat out--with Embiid averaging 30.4 ppg in his five appearances. However, Embiid has never been in top physical condition during his career, and he is far from being in top physical condition now. 

Side note: I am baffled by how often Embiid crashes to the floor despite being such a gifted athlete; I have played basketball for most of my life, and I would say that Embiid probably falls down more in one playoff series than I have fallen down in decades of playing competitive basketball. I am not sure if Embiid is flopping to draw fouls or just moving awkwardly, but he would be well advised to keep his huge body upright in order to avoid getting injured again.

The Miami Heat have been a baffling team for the past several years. They reached the NBA Finals in 2020 and 2023 in addition to reaching the Eastern Conference Finals in 2022, when they posted the Eastern Conference's best regular season record--but this is the second year in a row that they finished outside of the top six and thus fell into the Play-In Tournament. It does not seem as if Jimmy Butler and the Heat take the regular season very seriously--which contradicts all of the Heat's self-promotion about their unique "Heat culture"--but few teams have matched their recent postseason success. The Heat are anemic offensively (ranking 26th in scoring and 22nd in field goal percentage) and they get killed on the boards because they are undersized (ranking 26th in rebounding)

I predict that Embiid will lead the 76ers past the Heat in a home Play-In Tournament game, but it is unlikely that the 76ers will make much noise in the playoffs.

The Atlanta Hawks have lost six games in a row and seven of their last 10 games. They are awful defensively--ranking 28th in points allowed and 28th in defensive field goal percentage--and they have not accomplished much of note since their fluky run to the 2021 Eastern Conference Finals. Teams that are led by undersized guards who are averse to playing defense tend to not make much postseason noise. The Hawks led by Trae Young are very similar to the Portland teams led by Damian Lillard; Lillard's Trail Blazers made a fluky run to the 2019 Western Conference Finals but the Trail Blazers have won just three playoff games since 2019--and after being traded from Portland to Milwaukee, Lillard has helped destroy Milwaukee's once stout defense. The Hawks will endure a playoff drought similar to Portland's until the Hawks either trade Young or else surround him with a deep supporting cast of defensive-minded players.

The Chicago Bulls did not have a great season, but they finished three games ahead of the Hawks and the Bulls went 5-5 in their last 10 games. The Bulls started the season 5-14, but played better after former All-Star Zach LaVine suffered a season-ending ankle injury. DeMar DeRozan averaged a team-high 24.0 ppg while leading the league in minutes played per game (37.8).

When the moveable object meets the resistible force, anything can happen, but I predict that the Bulls will beat the Hawks.

The L.A. Lakers feature two members of the NBA's 75th Anniversary Team, LeBron James and Anthony Davis, yet they failed to finish in the top six in the Western Conference for the fourth straight season. Keep in mind that Kobe Bryant led the Lakers to the playoffs twice with Kwame Brown as his starting center, Smush Parker as his starting point guard, and the talented but inconsistent--to put it mildly--Lamar Odom as the Lakers' second best player. If not for the 2020 "bubble" NBA title, James' L.A. tenure would have to be viewed as a monumental failure from the standpoint of team success regardless of his high individual performance level--but the "bubble" title is a historical fact, and there are many great players who did not lead their teams to even one championship. The Lakers would be well served to remember and emulate how they won that title: they attacked the paint on offense, defended the paint on defense, and used their size to their advantage.

Much has been made of James' late career emergence as a high percentage three point shooter. While James deserves credit for improving this facet of his game, the Lakers are at their best when--to borrow a concept from chess--the threat of James shooting a three pointer is stronger than the execution. In other words, now that James has legit three point range opposing defenses have to guard him beyond the arc--but instead of settling for three pointers he should still attack the paint not only to take high percentage close range shots but also to draw fouls and to create easier shots for his teammates.

Davis is perhaps Embiid's top rival in the category of "regularly falling down hard for no apparent reason." Not coincidentally, Davis also is similar to Embiid in terms of missing a lot of games due to injury, although Davis broke form by playing in a career-high 76 games this season.

The New Orleans Pelicans are a solid team, and they have benefited tremendously from Zion Williamson playing in a career-high 70 games this season, but it would speak volumes about James and Davis if they fail to lead the Lakers past a team that no one should seriously consider to be a championship contender. I predict that the Lakers will beat the Pelicans, but not match last season's fluky run to the Western Conference Finals--and we know that the run was fluky because we have seen that over the course of a full season the vaunted "new look" Lakers sans scapegoats Russell Westbrook and Frank Vogel had to fight to finish eighth even with James and Davis avoiding injuries and eschewing load management.

The Golden State Warriors have at least three future Hall of Famers (Stephen Curry, Chris Paul, Klay Thompson) on their roster--and probably four, as Draymond Green will likely be voted in unless he does something so egregious before the end of his career that he becomes persona non grata--but the 2022 NBA champions finished 10th in the 15 team Western Conference. However, the Warriors closed the season strongly by winning eight of their last 10 games to earn a rematch with their opponent from the first round of the 2023 playoffs--but the rematch is in the Play-In Tournament, not the playoffs.

The Sacramento Kings finished only two games worse this season (46-36) than last season (48-34), but in the deep Western Conference they fell from all the way from the third seed last season to the ninth seed this season. They were terrible defensively last season (ranking 25th in points allowed and 29th in defensive field goal percentage), and not very good defensively this season (ranking 17th in points allowed and 21st in defensive field goal percentage). The Kings have dropped in the standings since Sixth Man of the Year candidate Malik Monk suffered a knee injury that will keep him out until the end of April, which means that he will not return this season unless the Kings make an extended playoff run. 

The Warriors needed a 50 point game seven masterpiece from Stephen Curry to eliminate the Kings from the 2023 playoffs, but such heroics will not be required for the Warriors to beat the Kings in the 2024 Play-In Tournament.

If my predictions are correct then Miami will host Chicago and New Orleans will host Golden State in the last chance segment of the Play-In Tournament. I expect Miami to defeat Chicago, and Golden State to beat New Orleans.

The NBA is happy because the Play-In Tournament adds six games to the schedule, with the corresponding bump in TV revenue and ticket sales. Let's hope that the games come even close to living up to the relentless hype provided by the league and its media partners. Chicago versus Atlanta is not a game that anyone would ask for (other than fans of those teams), but we can hope that the Bulls and Hawks will make it a game worth remembering and talking about, and we can likewise hope that all of the Play-In Tournament games feature playoff caliber basketball.

Previous Play-In Tournament Articles:

2023

Zion Williamson's Refusal to Play Despite Being Healthy Embodies What is Wrong With Today's NBA (April 13, 2023)

L.A. Lakers Need Overtime to Dispatch Shorthanded Minnesota Timberwolves in Play-In Tournament (April 12, 2023)

The 2023 NBA Play-In Tournament: Grab Your Popcorn and Savor the Mediocrity! (April 10, 2023)

2022

Notes on the 2022 NBA Play-In Tournament (April 14, 2022)

Nets Clinch Seventh Seed After Outlasting Cavaliers, 115-108 (April 12, 2022)

The NBA is (Usually) Fantastic (Except When Teams Bench Their Starters for the Season's Last Game) (April 11, 2022)

2021

Nine Versus Ten Does Not Add Up to Fantastic Basketball (May 20, 2021)

Thoughts on the NBA's Play-In Tournament (May 17, 2021)

Labels: Atlanta Hawks, Chicago Bulls, Golden State Warriors, L.A. Lakers, Miami Heat, New Orleans Pelicans, Philadelphia 76ers, Sacramento Kings

posted by David Friedman @ 10:19 PM

5 comments

LeBron Leads the Way as Lakers Dominate Pelicans to Advance to NBA Cup Championship Game

LeBron James bullied Herbert Jones in the paint for a three point play on the first possession of the game, and James kept attacking until the New Orleans Pelicans waved the white flag of surrender: James scored a game-high 30 points on 9-12 field goal shooting while also dishing for a game-high eight assists, grabbing five rebounds, and taking three charges. James played just 23 minutes in the Lakers' 133-89 win, and if he had played 35 or 40 minutes he could have easily scored 50 points while leading the Lakers to an even more decisive victory. This is the first time in his long, storied career that James has scored at least 30 points in less than 25 minutes. Five other Lakers scored in double figures, led by Austin Reaves (17 points, seven assists) and Anthony Davis (16 points, game-high 15 rebounds, five assists, two blocked shots, two steals).

Trey Murphy III led the Pelicans with 14 points. Zion Williamson specializes in thunderous dunks, but in this win or go home game his play was as quiet as a whisper: 13 points, three rebounds, two assists. Former All-Star Brandon Ingram had nine points and seven assists, and C.J. McCollum had nine points and two assists. Williamson, Ingram, and McCollum are touted as an All-Star trio, but in this game they barely outscored the 38 year old James. The Pelicans shot poorly from the field (.358), were outrebounded 59-42, and played defense with all of the intensity seen in a 35 and over recreational league game. After the game, TNT's Charles Barkley said that when an NBA team loses this badly it means that the team quit; that assessment is blunt, but fair.

Throughout James' 21 season career I have praised him when he played well--which he usually does--and I have criticized him when his effort and intensity were not up to par. It is not fair to dwell on the negative regarding a player as great as James is, but it is worth pointing out how I know that James quit versus Boston in the 2010 playoffs and versus Dallas in the 2011 NBA Finals: he was in his prime during both of those series, but instead of attacking the paint on offense and playing relentlessly on defense he spent a lot of time drifting around the perimeter. In marked contrast, versus the Pelicans last night James attacked the hoop on the game's first possession and he kept attacking the hoop while also zipping all over the court on defense taking charges, disrupting passing lanes, and contesting shots. If you knew nothing about basketball but just watched the game as an objective observer you would immediately notice how actively engaged James was at both ends of the court. The opposite was true of James versus Boston and Dallas. By knowing what James looks like when he is highly energized we also know what it looks like when James has quit. To James' credit, after quitting in back to back playoffs he bounced back to win back to back championships, and he has won a total of four NBA titles. It is obvious that James is laser-focused on winning the first NBA Cup.

Williamson is muscular, nimble, and quick, but his big body too often has a small impact on winning. TNT's Shaquille O'Neal and Barkley did not hold back when speaking about Williamson after the game. O'Neal said that Williamson does not run hard, does not create easy baskets for himself, does not rebound well enough, and does not have "that look." O'Neal said that early in his career he had some of those same issues, but that after people pulled him aside to point out those deficiencies he worked on them. 

Barkley agreed with O'Neal's critiques, and he added that Williamson should be the Pelicans' best player, not their third best player behind Ingram and McCollum. Barkley said that Williamson should be averaging 11-12 rpg (Williamson is averaging 5.8 rpg this season, and he has never averaged more than 7.2 rpg in a season), that he does not run the court well, and that he needs to get in better shape.

I declared a few months ago that the Pelicans will never win big with Williamson as their franchise cornerstone, citing many of the points that Barkley and O'Neal just made.

The Lakers outscored the Pelicans 38-24 in the second quarter and 43-17 in the third quarter. That adds up to 81-41 for 24 minutes, during which time Williamson had seven points and no rebounds. He is obviously not the only Pelican who quit, but he is the team's most physically gifted athlete and he was a number one overall draft pick, so what he does sets the tone, much like whatever James does sets the tone for the Lakers.

After the game, Williamson admitted that he needs to be more aggressive. The problem--as Barkley noted--is that Williamson is not a rookie or a second year player; he is a five year veteran, so--even though he missed one season due to injury and has missed a ton of other games due to injury--he has been in and around the league long enough to know better and to develop the right mentality.

I know that I just criticized James for not having the right mentality at times during 2010 and 2011, which were his seventh and eighth seasons, but by that time he had already led the Cleveland Cavaliers to the 2007 NBA Finals and he had been a dominant playoff performer. James knew the required mentality and he had often displayed it, but he just fell short for whatever reason on a couple occasions. In contrast, Williamson has yet to demonstrate that he has figured it out or that he ever will figure it out.

While the Pelicans lick their wounds, the Lakers are one win away from capturing the inaugural NBA Cup. My NBA Cup predictions have not been anything to write home about, but I was right about the Lakers making it to the championship game and I feel very good about my prediction that the Lakers are going to win the championship game. I am not sure if James and Davis will stay healthy enough to win another NBA title, but the NBA Cup is just 48 minutes away from their grasp, so that goal is quite obtainable--and it is obviously very important to James.

The Lakers beat the Phoenix Suns 106-103 to reach the NBA Cup Semifinals, while in the other Western Conference bracket the Pelicans defeated the Sacramento Kings 127-117. The Lakers will play the Pacers in Saturday night's NBA Cup Championship game. The Pacers defeated the Milwaukee Bucks 128-119 earlier on Thursday to punch their NBA Cup Championship game ticket. 

Both NBA Cup Semifinal games had a playoff atmosphere/vibe. It was great to see Julius Erving sitting in the front row of the second game. It is good for the sport when the legends of the game are front and center. Erving's teams reached the pro basketball equivalent of the "Final Four" (the Division Finals or Conference Finals) 10 times in his 16 seasons as he won three championships and two Finals MVPs, so there is no doubt that he would have put up some memorable NBA Cup performances if that event had existed during his career.

Labels: Anthony Davis, Brandon Ingram, C.J. McCollum, Julius Erving, L.A. Lakers, LeBron James, New Orleans Pelicans, Zion Williamson

posted by David Friedman @ 3:13 AM

2 comments

Pelicans Beat Kings 127-117, Advance to NBA Cup Semifinals

In the second game of TNT's NBA Cup Knockout Rounds doubleheader, the New Orleans Pelicans rallied from a 15 point first quarter deficit to defeat the Sacramento Kings 127-117. The Pelicans are 12-10 overall this season, but they are 3-0 versus the Kings. Brandon Ingram led the Pelicans with 30 points on 10-20 field goal shooting while also grabbing eight rebounds and passing for six assists. Herbert Jones added 23 points, Jonas Valanciunas had 18 points and a team-high 11 rebounds, and C.J. McCollum--in his third game back after missing 12 games due to a collapsed lung--scored 17 points and passed for a team-high seven assists. Zion Williamson had quiet boxscore numbers (10 points, six rebounds, six assists), but he posted the best plus/minus number among New Orleans' starters (+4).

De'Aaron Fox led Sacramento with 30 points, but he shot just 10-25 from the field, including 1-7 from three point range. Domantas Sabonis posted a triple double, scoring 26 points on 8-12 field goal shooting and 10-10 free throw shooting while posting game-high totals in rebounds (13) and assists (10).

After the Kings jumped out to a 32-17 lead at the 4:27 mark of the first quarter it looked like the Kings would be "lighting the beam" and advancing to the NBA Cup Semifinals. Instead, the Pelicans closed the first quarter with an 18-4 run. The Pelicans took a 13 point lead in the second quarter, they were on top 69-61 at halftime, and they never trailed in the second half. Overall, they shredded the Kings' defense with 47-87 (.540) field goal shooting, including 14-31 (.452) from beyond the arc.

The Kings are trying to build on last season's first round playoff loss, the franchise's first postseason appearance since 2006. The 25 year old Fox looks like he will be a perennial All-Star, while the 27 year old Sabonis is already a three-time All-Star. The Kings were the highest scoring team in the league last season, but they have slipped to 10th this season, though their 25th ranked scoring defense has improved to 21st. They are young enough and talented enough to develop into an elite team, but they need to continue to improve defensively while maintaining a top 10 offense.

There is no doubt that the Pelicans have a lot of talent. Williamson is a two-time All-Star, Ingram made the All-Star team in 2020 and has averaged at least 22 ppg in each of the past four seasons, and McCollum has averaged at least 20 ppg for each of the past eight seasons, the longest such streak ever for a player who has never made the All-Star team. However, so far that trio has not produced a single playoff series win for the Pelicans, mainly because of their collective inability to stay healthy and available. As Charles Barkley and Kenny Smith noted during the TNT telecast, Williamson looks out of shape now; that is significant not only in terms of potentially affecting his productivity but also in terms of making the injury-prone Williamson vulnerable to suffering yet another injury. 

Ingram is an eight year veteran, and even though Williamson is just 23 years old he is already a five year veteran who has never stayed healthy for long. McCollum was durable in the first portion of his career, but he is 32 years old now and has been battling injuries for the past several seasons. The notion that these three players are going to simultaneously enjoy sustained health seems unlikely. Williamson is obviously the key, because he is the youngest and most talented of the Pelicans' three stars; he not only must get into better shape, but he must improve both his rebounding and his defense. Unfortunately, his identity as an NBA player--both in terms of conditioning and skill set limitations--seems to be established; how many injury-prone, one-way players have transformed themselves into durable two-way players?

Five years from now, it will be interesting to see how many times these two talented teams have reached the Conference Finals and NBA Finals. Sustained team success--not "advanced basketball statistics" and not marketing hype--is the most meaningful way to measure basketball greatness.

Labels: Brandon Ingram, C.J. McCollum, De'Aaron Fox, Domantas Sabonis, New Orleans Pelicans, Sacramento Kings, Zion Williamson

posted by David Friedman @ 2:27 AM

0 comments

Lindy's Pro Basketball 2023-24 is on Sale Now

The annual publication of Lindy's Pro Basketball is a happy event for basketball fans because that means the NBA season will begin soon. The 2023-24 edition of Lindy's Pro Basketball has 30 team previews, plus nine feature stories: "Scopin' the NBA" (Mike Ashley recaps the major off-season stories), "Wemby is Next" (Michael Bradley profiles 2023 number one overall draft pick Victor Wembanyama), "The Joker Abides" (Mark Medina examines if Nikola Jokic could become the next Tim Duncan), "The Real 'Winning Time'" (an excerpt from Roland Lazenby's forthcoming Magic Johnson biography), "Keeping the Faith" (Medina discusses Stephen Curry's faith), "NBA Report Card" (Lazenby grades each team's off-season moves), "A Look Ahead" (Jeremy Treatman scouts the 2024 NBA Draft), "NBA Fantasy Guide" (Ashley provides advice for fantasy basketball enthusiasts), and "A Look Back" (Lazenby recalls how George Mikan led the Lakers to one NBL title and five NBA titles).

I wrote six team previews and sidebar articles this year: Dallas Mavericks, Golden State Warriors, New Orleans Pelicans, Oklahoma City Thunder, Portland Trail Blazers, and San Antonio Spurs. My sidebar articles discuss, respectively, the Luka Doncic-Kyrie Irving duo, Chris Paul, Zion Williamson, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Damian Lillard, and Gregg Popovich.

This is the 15th year that I have contributed to Lindy's Pro Basketball dating back to 2005 (with interruptions for the 2011 lockout, my attendance at law school in 2014-15, and 2020 because Lindy's Pro Basketball was not published in the wake of COVID-19). As always, I am grateful to Roland Lazenby for providing the opportunity to contribute to Lindy's Pro Basketball, and I am proud to be associated with the finished product.

If you do not see the magazine in any stores in your area, you can order a copy online. 

Selected Previous Articles About Lindy's Pro Basketball:

Lindy's Pro Basketball 2022-23 is on Sale Now 

Lindy's Pro Basketball 2021-2022 is in Stores Now 

"Forever Mamba" Pays Tribute to Kobe Bryant 

Look for Lindy's Pro Basketball 2019-20 in Stores Now 

Lindy's Pro Basketball 2018-19 Is Available Now 

Lindy's Pro Basketball 2017-18 is on Sale Now

Lindy's Pro Basketball 2016-17 is Available Now! 

Labels: Dallas Mavericks, Golden State Warriors, Lindy's Pro Basketball, New Orleans Pelicans, Oklahoma City Thunder, Portland Trail Blazers, Roland Lazenby, San Antonio Spurs

posted by David Friedman @ 11:15 PM

0 comments

Zion Williamson's Refusal to Play Despite Being Healthy Embodies What is Wrong With Today's NBA

The New Orleans Pelicans' 2022-23 season ended at home last night with a 123-118 Play-In Tournament loss to the Oklahoma City Thunder. The Pelicans would probably have won if they had received any contribution from Zion Williamson, who was paid over $13.5 million to play in 29 games this season. In his four year NBA career, Williamson has received over $44 million from the Pelicans despite playing in just 114 games. He has been blessed with generational wealth by the NBA in exchange for less than a season and a half of work--and that does not even include the millions of dollars that he has been paid for commercial endorsements. There is no doubt that Williamson is a talented player--his career averages are 25.8 ppg, 7.0 rpg, and 3.6 apg--but in most professions a person does not get paid for missing the equivalent of two and a half years of work, nor does a person have the good fortune of being financially set for life after working for 18 months. 

Williamson's public comments a day before the Play-In Tournament must exasperate and infuriate Pelicans' management, players, and fans. "Physically, I’m fine," Williamson declared. "Now it’s just a matter of when I feel like Zion. I can pretty much do everything, but it's just a matter of the level that I was playing at before my hamstring. I don't want to go out there and be in my own head and affect the team when I can just be on the sideline supporting them more, because I know myself. If I was to go out there, I would be in my head. I would hesitate on certain moves and it could affect the game."

Williamson admits that he is healthy, a fact that we can all see with our own eyes as he unleashes a flurry of dunks while warming up before his teammates go to work. Williamson is healthy, but he does not "feel like Zion," so he collects a check for not playing. Willis Reed played in game seven of the 1970 NBA Finals despite a painful hip injury, but Williamson refused to even attempt to help his team with the season on the line.

It would be great if the Pelicans management informed Zion, "Financially, the franchise is fine. But until we feel like paying you, we are not going to pay you."

Yes, I know that the team cannot do that, because the players collectively bargained for themselves the right to receive guaranteed contracts so that they will be paid even if they choose not to play.

Williamson's foul attitude is a direct result of the NBA endorsing the following noxious notions: showing up to work does not matter, winning does not matter, and employees deserve to be compensated despite not doing their jobs. As I noted in a recent article, the toxic combination of load management and tanking "cheats the fans who buy tickets to see their favorite players, compromises the integrity of playoff seeding, devalues individual and team statistics, and creates a host of issues regarding legalized wagering."

If I ran the Pelicans, I would trade Williamson to any team willing to take him. You cannot trust a person like Williamson, and you certainly cannot win anything of significance with him as the franchise player. There is no reason to believe that he loves the game or that he has a competitive spirit. Maybe he will mature, but he is already a grown man and the NBA as currently structured provides little incentive for players to develop any competitive spirit that is not an intrinsic part of their character already.

If I were one of Williamson's teammates, I would be furious at him. C.J. McCollum has played for months with a thumb injury that may require offseason surgery, and he played the last several games with a shoulder injury that may require offseason surgery--but he played in 75 games for the Pelicans this season, and he played in the Play-In Tournament game last night.

Hype and compensation should never precede accomplishment--but NBA owners and players are not fools; they are brilliant, because they are getting rich off of the money provided by consumers who watch the games, attend the games, and purchase the endorsed products. As long as we continue to spend the money, the owners and players will be happy to take it.

Labels: load management, NBA, New Orleans Pelicans, Zion Williamson

posted by David Friedman @ 9:42 PM

14 comments

The 2023 NBA Play-In Tournament: Grab Your Popcorn and Savor the Mediocrity!

The 2023 NBA Play-In Tournament features the seventh seeded teams in the Eastern and Western Conferences (Miami Heat and L.A. Lakers respectively) facing the eighth seeded teams in the Eastern and Western Conferences (Atlanta Hawks and Minnesota Timberwolves respectively). Each of the winners of those two games qualifies for the playoffs as the seventh seeded team in that conference, and will face the second seeded team in that conference in a seven game first round playoff series. Each of the losers of those two games will get a second chance to qualify for the playoffs by facing the winner of the battle between the ninth seeded teams in the Eastern and Western Conferences (Toronto Raptors and New Orleans Pelicans respectively) versus the 10th seeded teams in the Eastern and Western Conferences (Chicago Bulls and Oklahoma City Thunder respectively), while the losers of the games featuring the ninth and 10th seeded teams are eliminated.

The NBA began using the Play-In Tournament in this format in 2021. The seventh seeded team has yet to lose a game in either conference, and the ninth seeded team has yet to lose to the 10th seeded team. The ninth seeded team has defeated the eighth seeded team three times in four games. No team that qualified for the NBA playoffs via the Play-In Tournament has extended a playoff series to seven games, much less actually win a playoff series.

In short, the Play-In Tournament is a showcase for teams that spent 82 regular season games proving their mediocrity, and no Play-In Tournament team has proven to be anything other than mediocre.

In the Eastern Conference, I predict that Miami will defeat Atlanta, and Toronto will defeat Chicago. Then, Toronto will defeat Atlanta to earn the eighth seed. The Miami Heat not only enjoy homecourt advantage, but the Heat have the same core players who reached the 2022 Eastern Conference Finals. The Heat have struggled with injuries and uncharacteristic inconsistency this season, but they have a better and deeper team than the Hawks. If there is a Play-In Tournament team that could actually win a playoff series--a doubtful proposition, as noted above--the Heat are that team. The Raptors have endured a disappointing season, but they should be able to win two games to salvage this campaign by at least earning a spot in the playoffs. The Atlanta Hawks' run to the 2021 Eastern Conference Finals was a fluke: they went 41-41 that season, and followed that up with records of 43-39 and 41-41 the past two seasons while cycling through four coaches since 2020.

In the Western Conference, I predict that the L.A. Lakers will defeat Minnesota, and New Orleans will defeat Oklahoma City. Then, New Orleans will defeat Minnesota to earn the eighth seed. The media narrative that it is an accomplishment for the Lakers to earn a spot in the Play-In Tournament is baffling; the Lakers feature two players selected to the NBA's 75th Anniversary Team: failing to qualify for the playoffs outright is embarrassing, and losing in the Play-In Tournament should be considered unacceptable. The Utah Jazz' "B" team eviscerated the Lakers in the paint by a 76-50 margin in the last game of the regular season with playoff positioning on the line for the Lakers, putting a dent in the notion that the Lakers have become some kind of defensive juggernaut since the trade deadline--but the Lakers won the game, mainly because of some improbable three point marksmanship (8-14) from LeBron James, who posted one of the lowest three point shooting percentages of his career this season, and who made at least five three pointers in a game just five other times all season long. The Lakers have performed better recently because Anthony Davis has been healthy and thus has been active at both ends of the court, but the Lakers are what their overall record suggest that they are: at best, a lower tier playoff team.

The Minnesota Timberwolves have never been known for their collective basketball IQ--to put it charitably--but their multiple meltdowns during the last game of the season are as baffling as they are damaging: Rudy Gobert was sent home at halftime after punching teammate Kyle Anderson, and Jaden McDaniels fractured his hand by punching a wall. Somehow, the Timberwolves still beat the Pelicans, though perhaps that is not shocking considering that the Timberwolves often played better this season without Gobert. McDaniels is likely out for whatever remains of the Timberwolves' season, while Gobert's status has yet to be publicly determined.

If James cannot lead the Lakers to a home win against the dysfunctional Timberwolves, even his staunchest allies in the press corps will have a difficult time buying whatever excuses he offers.

The Pelicans are talented and scrappy even without the perpetually injured Zion Williamson, and I like their chances to beat the Timberwolves in a rematch of the regular season finale.

The NBA does not include Play-In Tournament statistics with either their regular season statistics or their playoff statistics, which reinforces the reality that these games are less about competition than about an opportunity to make more money--and we know that the NBA cares about profits more than anything else. For the record, in 2021 I correctly picked three of the four Play-In Tournament qualifiers (Boston, Washington, L.A. Lakers), and in 2022 I correctly picked three of the four Play-In Tournament qualifiers (Atlanta, Brooklyn, Minnesota); to review my previous Play-Tournament predictions and commentary, check out the links below.

Previous Play-In Tournament Articles:

2022

The NBA is (Usually) Fantastic (Except When Teams Bench Their Starters for the Season's Last Game) (April 11, 2022)

Nets Clinch Seventh Seed After Outlasting Cavaliers, 115-108 (April 12, 2022)

Notes on the 2022 NBA Play-In Tournament (April 14, 2022)

2021

Thoughts on the NBA's Play-In Tournament (May 17, 2021)

Nine Versus Ten Does Not Add Up to Fantastic Basketball (May 20, 2021)

Labels: Atlanta Hawks, Chicago Bulls, L.A. Lakers, Miami Heat, Minnesota Timberwolves, New Orleans Pelicans, Oklahoma City Thunder, Play-In Tournament, Toronto Raptors

posted by David Friedman @ 1:53 AM

14 comments

Nets Beat Undermanned Pelicans

In a matchup of the third seeded teams in each conference, the Brooklyn Nets defeated the New Orleans Pelicans, 108-102. The Pelicans led by as many as 15 points in the first half, but were doomed by cold second half shooting (16-44, including 2-12 from three point range). Kevin Durant scored a game-high 33 points but shot just 9-26 from the field. He also had a game-high 10 rebounds, plus two blocked shots. Kyrie Irving struggled for most of the game before scoring 10 of the Nets' 20 fourth quarter points to finish with 19 points on 7-22 field goal shooting. Irving provided 10 of the Nets' 20 fourth quarter points. T.J. Warren scored 15 points off of the bench in just 24 minutes.

C.J. McCollum led the Pelicans with 28 points on 9-24 field goal shooting and Naji Marshall added a career-high 23 points on 6-11 field goal shooting. Jonas Valanciunas had 12 points and a game-high 10 rebounds as the Pelicans outrebounded the Nets 51-43, but even with those extra possessions the Pelicans could not make up for the absences of injured stars Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram.

The Nets have won 17 of their last 19 games, and the Pelicans have been a pleasant surprise despite key players missing a large number of games. Should either of these teams be considered championship contenders based not just on this game but on their overall body of work and their potential?

The Nets have had a tumultuous season. Coach Steve Nash departed after the team started 2-5, at the same time that the Nets suspended Kyrie Irving for unrepentant antisemitism. Ben Simmons did not look sharp in the early going, and he missed four of the team's first 10 games. On November 25, the Nets were 9-11 before embarking on their current surge. However, the Nets' recent success includes wins versus many non-contending teams, including Atlanta (twice), Charlotte (twice), Toronto (twice), Washington (twice), Detroit, Orlando, and San Antonio. The Nets beat Golden State sans Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson. 

Are the Nets legitimate contenders? Kevin Durant owns two NBA title and two NBA Finals MVPs, while Kyrie Irving has already been the second option on a championship team. Ben Simmons is capable of being an elite playmaker and an elite defensive player who can guard multiple positions. If those three stars are healthy, the Nets can be very good--but, for a variety of reasons, each of those players has missed substantial playing time in recent seasons. 

The Nets lack size, and consequently rank 29th in the league in rebounding. Their defensive numbers look good, but--as noted above--they have recently feasted on weak competition. The Nets have not proven that they can rebound and defend at a high level against elite teams. Since Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving joined the team in 2019, the Nets have only won one playoff series. 

The Nets are capable of being a legitimate contender, but until they prove otherwise in the crucible of postseason play they should not be ranked ahead of the Boston Celtics and the Milwaukee Bucks, regardless of regular season records and regular season winning streaks.

Entering play tonight, the New Orleans Pelicans had the third best record in the Western Conference, just a game behind the Denver Nuggets and Memphis Grizzlies. The Pelicans accomplished this despite Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram missing substantial playing time. C.J. McCollum (20.2 ppg, 6.0 apg) has played well, and the Pelicans are a rugged, scrappy team that ranks second in steals, fourth in scoring, and sixth in rebounding; their depth has helped mitigate the absences of Williamson and Ingram, but this team is unlikely to advance past the first round of the playoffs without Williamson and Ingram. 

The Pelicans' potential is tantalizing, but Williamson and Ingram being out of the lineup is not surprising; Ingram has not played more than 62 games in a season since his rookie campaign (2016-17), while Williamson missed the entire 2021-22 season due to injury after playing just 85 games combined in his first two seasons. Williamson and Ingram are also players who primarily impact the game offensively, so even if they are healthy at playoff time they have not proven that they are willing or able to do enough defensively to lead a team to a playoff series win.

Are the Pelicans a contender? Until their two best players (1) stay healthy and (2) prove that they are committed to playing defense the Pelicans will not be a contender.

Labels: Ben Simmons, Brandon Ingram, Brooklyn Nets, C.J. McCollum, Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving, New Orleans Pelicans, Zion Williamson

posted by David Friedman @ 11:27 PM

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2022-2023 Western Conference Preview

The Golden State Warriors surprised many people--including, if they are honest, themselves--by winning the 2022 NBA championship. Before the 2021-22 season, there were justifiable questions about the team's health, size, and ability to advance very far in the playoffs sans Kevin Durant; after Durant's departure for Brooklyn in 2019, the Warriors had not won a single playoff game. However, Klay Thompson returned to action as a valuable contributor, Andrew Wiggins emerged as a first-time All-Star, Stephen Curry overcame a midseason slump to have perhaps his best playoff run ever, and the Warriors benefited from implosions and/or injuries suffered by several of their most dangerous rivals. 

On paper, the Western Conference is very deep, but after the way that the Warriors played during the 2022 playoffs it is difficult to not choose them as the favorites. As the old saying goes, to be the champ you have to beat the champ--and if a team other than the Warriors wins the West in 2023 then that team will most likely have to beat the Warriors.

The Memphis Grizzlies have a dynamic offense (115.6 ppg, second in the league) and a solid defense (.455 defensive field goal percentage, 10th in the league). They are led by explosive point guard Ja Morant, who is surrounded by a strong supporting cast--and all of the team's key players are younger than 30, so there is room for growth and development for a squad that had the league's second best record (56-26) last season.

Kawhi Leonard and Paul George are healthy, which means that the L.A. Clippers should be championship contenders--and which also means that several of the teams that finished ahead of them in the standings last season will be moving down at least one notch.

The Dallas Mavericks suffered an important loss when free agent guard Jalen Brunson signed with the New York Knicks, but the continued MVP-level excellence of Luka Doncic plus the additions of Christian Wood and JaVale McGee should keep Dallas in the top four in the Western Conference.

The Phoenix Suns finished with the NBA's best regular season record in 2021-22, and they still have a talented team that should be effective at both ends of the court, but there is something amiss internally in addition to the Robert Sarver scandal--we saw it during the game seven meltdown versus the Dallas Mavericks, and we saw it during the offseason when the Suns dared Deandre Ayton to find a team willing to offer him a max contract; the Suns had to scramble after Ayton signed just such a deal with the Indiana Pacers. Although the Suns matched the Pacers' offer sheet and kept Ayton, it is obvious that he and at least one other team place a higher value on his services than the Suns do. When the Suns signed Chris Paul in 2020 they knew that they had a short window as a contender with him running the team, and that window most likely slammed shut last season.

Denver's Nikola Jokic is seeking to win his third straight regular season MVP, a feat previously accomplished by only Bill Russell (1961-63, NBA), Wilt Chamberlain (1966-68, NBA), Julius Erving (1974-76, ABA), and Larry Bird (1984-86, NBA). Jokic has led the Nuggets to the playoffs for four straight years, and they reached the Western Conference Finals in 2020. Injuries have held the team back for the past couple years, but the team is starting the season healthy and with high expectations. If the Nuggets stay healthy then they could be a force, but injury-prone teams often stay injury-prone, and the Nuggets also have some work to do defensively.

The Minnesota Timberwolves made the playoffs for just the second time since 2004, and they significantly upgraded their defense by acquiring three-time Defensive Player of the Year and 2022 rebounding leader Rudy Gobert from the Utah Jazz. The Timberwolves led the league in scoring (115.9 ppg) but ranked 24th in points allowed, so even a slight improvement defensively could potentially add up to several more wins.

Meanwhile, the Jazz--who made the playoffs for the sixth straight season--appear to be yet another team that has succumbed to the tanking plague, trading Gobert and then trading three-time All-Star Donovan Mitchell for a sack of beans, a stack of draft picks, and hopes/dreams that some day those draft picks will amount to something more than two three-time All-Stars. Good luck with that, Jazz fans, but don't hold your breath, because three-time All-Stars are harder to find than "stat gurus" seem to think.

Local and national media members covering the L.A. Lakers have vilified and scapegoated Russell Westbrook without merit or mercy. The extent of the vitriol is breathtaking, but the notion that Westbrook would be unfairly criticized does not surprise me; in fact, I predicted it eight years ago when I declared that Westbrook was poised to inherit Kobe Bryant's dual role as "best guard in the NBA and vastly underrated superstar." Not long after I made that prediction, Westbrook set triple double records that may never be broken and then he won a much-deserved regular season MVP. The Lakers have an uphill battle to make the playoffs this season, and Westbrook will no doubt once again bear the brunt of the criticism for others' shortcomings.

This preview has the same format as my Eastern Conference Preview; the following eight teams are ranked based on their likelihood of making it to the NBA Finals:

1) Golden State Warriors: I underestimated the Warriors last season, and perhaps I am overestimating them this season, but unless Curry suddenly gets old and/or this team is hit by a slew of injuries their offensive firepower combined with their underrated defense will make them very difficult to beat.

I did not think that the 6-3 Curry could lead the Warriors to a title versus teams featuring more physically imposing superstars who have an impact at both ends of the court, but the way things played out Curry did not have to outduel 2021 Finals MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo, 2020 Finals MVP LeBron James, or 2019 Finals MVP Kawhi Leonard. That statement of fact is not meant to take anything away from what Curry and the Warriors accomplished: they beat the teams in front of them, and they earned their championship rings. 

The core players are back, and the players who the Warriors lost to free agency--including Gary Payton II, Otto Porter Jr., and Juan Toscano-Anderson--are valuable but hardly irreplaceable. Thompson figures to be more consistent offensively and more impactful defensively in his first full season back after suffering two serious injuries, and new additions Donte DiVincenzo and JaMychal Green should fit in seamlessly.

Casual fans can rave about "small ball" and three point shooting while debating how highly Curry should be ranked on the all-time greatest players list, but it should be noted that last season the Warriors ranked second in defensive field goal percentage, third in points allowed, fourth in rebounding differential, and seventh in rebounding. The Warriors won the championship by doing the dirty work in the trenches, and that reality is not altered by the distorted way that many media members describe what happened.

2) Memphis Grizzlies: Ja Morant earned his first All-Star selection and emerged as an MVP candidate last season, averaging career-highs in scoring (27.4 ppg), field goal percentage (.493), rebounding (5.7 rpg), and steals (1.2 spg). He missed 25 games due to injury and is slightly built at just 6-3, so his size and durability are question marks, but his talent is undeniable.

The interesting thing is that the Grizzlies did just fine--even better, statistically--during the games that Morant did not play. That does not mean that they are better off without him, but it does mean that this team is deep and well-coached.

Some teams rise up for one fluky season only to fall back into the pack--Portland, Atlanta, and New York are three recent examples of this--but the Grizzlies look like a team built for sustained high level success.

3) L.A. Clippers: This will be Kawhi Leonard's fourth season with the Clippers, and he has yet to lead the team to the NBA Finals after winning championships (and Finals MVPs) with San Antonio in 2014 and with Toronto in 2019. Leonard missed all of last season due to an ACL injury, and because of a combination of injuries and "load management" he has not played more than 60 games in a season since 2016-17. The most games he has played in a season is 74, and in an 11 season career he has played more than 70 games only twice. Therefore, it will be surprising if he plays more than 70 games this season--but if he plays in 60-65 regular season games and is healthy for the entire postseason then this team could be very dangerous. When healthy, Leonard may be the best all-around player in the NBA other than Giannis Antetokounmpo.

Leonard's running mate Paul George is a bit miscast as a number one option, but he fits in well as a second option. Ty Lue has already won a championship as a coach, and the supporting cast is solid--and could be excellent if newly acquired John Wall has anything left in the tank. Until I see Leonard make it all the way to June in one piece again, I cannot pick the Clippers to win the championship, but this is a dangerous team that clearly has championship potential.

4) Dallas Mavericks: Losing Jalen Brunson hurts Dallas, but let's not pretend that he is an irreplaceable superstar. Luka Doncic is a perennial All-NBA First Team selection and MVP candidate, and he has proven to be an elite playoff performer as well. He led the NBA in playoff scoring average in 2021 (35.7 ppg) and 2022 (31.7 ppg), becoming just the fourth player since 2000 to lead the league in postseason scoring in consecutive seasons, a list that includes Tracy McGrady (2001-02), Kobe Bryant (2007-08), and Kevin Durant (2013-14). Under the tutelage of Coach Jason Kidd, Doncic has improved defensively. I rank the Mavericks fourth because they have not closed the gap on the Warriors, and because at full strength the Grizzlies and Clippers are better, deeper teams.

5) Phoenix Suns: The Suns rode the momentum of a good closing run in the 2020 "bubble" all the way to the 2021 NBA Finals, and then they posted the NBA's best regular season record in 2022, but the playoff collapse versus Dallas followed by a tumultuous offseason during which the Suns did not strengthen their roster leaves this team poised to drop significantly in the standings. Even if the Suns finish higher than fifth in the regular season, I would not trust them in the playoffs, especially considering Chris Paul's track record of wearing down and presiding over multiple team collapses with multiple franchises.

6) Denver Nuggets: The Nuggets play at an elite level when reigning two-time regular season MVP Nikola Jokic is on the court, but they are not very good when Jokic is off of the court. Jamal Murray is expected to make a fully healthy return this season after rehabbing his torn ACL. The health of Murray and Michael Porter Jr. are critical for this team, but there are also legitimate questions about depth and team defense. The ceiling for this team if everything goes well is to return to the Western Conference Finals for the first time since 2020, but I expect the Nuggets to struggle to stay in the top four and avoid a first round playoff exit.

7) Minnesota Timberwolves: The Timberwolves were one of the most surprising teams of 2022, reaching the playoffs on the strength of the league's highest scoring offense (115.9 ppg) and pushing the favored Memphis Grizzlies to six games in the first round. They did not stand pat in the offseason, instead going all-in by trading five players and five draft picks to the Utah Jazz for 2022 rebounding leader and three-time Defensive Player of the Year Rudy Gobert. The Timberwolves ranked 16th in rebounding, 16th in defensive field goal percentage, and 24th in points allowed. Gobert should help the team improve in all three categories. 

Karl Anthony-Towns has MVP-level talent, but he has made the All-Star team just three times in seven seasons and he has yet to be selected to the All-NBA First Team or the All-NBA Second Team. Anthony Edwards averaged 21.3 ppg in his second season, and he looks like a player who can become a perennial All-Star. 

The Timberwolves have a lot of individual talent, but TNT's Charles Barkley bluntly said that they are "dumb as rocks" because of the way that they repeatedly waste possessions and squander leads. This team has to mature a lot in order to be a legit contender, but talent alone will carry them to the playoffs and make them a tough out.

8) New Orleans Pelicans: I don't fully trust the Pelicans, but I trust the teams listed below even less. The midseason addition of CJ McCollum turned things around and enabled the Pelicans to sneak into the playoffs after starting the season 4-16. The return of Zion Williamson no doubt excites the team's fans but can he stay healthy? Also, will he use his athleticism to do anything other than score? He has a lot of room for growth as a rebounder and as a defensive player. Brandon Ingram is a dynamic scorer and playmaker. 

Herbert Jones, Larry Nance Jr., and Jose Alvarado have bought into Coach Willie Green's emphasis on defense, but the Pelicans are not going to advance very far in the playoffs until the team's best offensive players also commit to playing defense consistently. 

The remaining Western Conference teams are deeply flawed and/or fully committed to tanking.

The Sacramento Kings should improve under new Coach Mike Brown, who will no doubt implement a game plan to bolster the team's defense, which ranked 29th in points allowed. If Brown can lift that ranking to top 20 status, the Kings could sneak into the Play-In Tournament. Brown is the Kings' 12th coach since their last playoff appearance in 2006. None of the previous 11 coaches lasted more than three seasons or won more than 39 games in a season. If the Kings give Brown a fair shake, he can reverse those trends.

The L.A. Lakers receive much more coverage than a mediocre team should, and many of the assertions made about this team and its players are so absurd that I am compelled to devote more coverage to a mediocre team than any mediocre team should receive.

The narratives swirling around the Lakers' acquisition of Patrick Beverley are bizarre. People act like Russell Westbrook has some kind of petty beef with Beverley, but the reality is indisputable and is public knowledge: in game two of the first round of the 2013 playoff series between the Oklahoma City Thunder and Houston Rockets, Beverley plowed into Westbrook as Westbrook called a timeout. Former NBA player and current NBA commentator Tim Legler recently called it one the dirtiest plays he has ever seen. How would you feel about a person who does a reckless and dirty act that threatens your health and your livelihood? Not only that, but Westbrook's Thunder were the defending Western Conference champions who had posted the best record in the West. They went 2-0 in the playoffs before Beverley ended Westbrook's season, and then they struggled to beat Houston 4-2 before getting waxed 4-1 by Memphis. Westbrook has every right to be furious at Beverley, and it says a lot about Westbrook's character that he has warmly welcomed Beverley as a teammate.

Westbrook became the scapegoat for the Lakers' disappointing 2021-22 season, but all of the propaganda directed against Westbroook does not change the reality that the Lakers' biggest problem--literally and figuratively--is that Anthony Davis (whose penchant for missing games led Charles Barkley to aptly dub him "street clothes") is satisfied with his career: he won a championship ring alongside his childhood hero LeBron James, he has made the All-Star team eight times, and he even fooled the voters into selecting him to the NBA's 75th Anniversary Team, which means that his status as a legend of the game is secure. Some players--Bill Russell, Magic Johnson, Michael Jordan, and Kobe Bryant immediately come to mind--spent their careers obsessed with winning as many championships as possible. That, to put it mildly, is not how Davis thinks or--more importantly--how he acts. 

Although Davis' style of play is different than Pau Gasol's, their mindsets are very similar: Gasol was a bit more motivated and focused than Davis (and Gasol had the benefit of Bryant pushing him every step of the way), but--after winning two championships and reaching three straight NBA Finals--Gasol was satisfied, as Kevin Ding brilliantly and repeatedly noted. While other media members constructed ludicrous narratives about Kobe Bryant's shot selection and the supposedly optimal number of shots for Bryant to attempt, Ding was one of the few writers who kept the focus--and the blame--where it belonged: Pau Gasol was content with winning two rings, and when the team's second best player is not going to push himself there is only so much that the best player can do to overcome this. 

Jeanie Buss told the truth in a recent interview when she called Westbrook the team's most consistent player, but it is doubtful that Davis will get the message that he was brought to the Lakers to eventually become the number one option and not just to ride James' coattails until James retires.

On any given night, James can still be the best player on the court, but he cannot sustain that over 82 games without either going into "chill mode," getting injured, or both. We know how much (and how little) to expect from Davis. The Lakers do not have the right personnel or mindset to maximize Westbrook's ability to grab a defensive rebound, push the ball up the court, and wreak havoc. The Lakers have name brand talent, but the product on the floor will likely not be good enough to make the playoffs. 

The Portland Trail Blazers do not have enough size, enough talent, or the right defensive mindset to make the playoffs, let alone contend for a championship.

The Houston Rockets had the worst record in the NBA last season, and they only figure to have a better record than the tanking teams this season--and not by much. It is not clear if the Rockets are tanking or just not very good.

The three remaining Western Conference teams appear to be tanking: Oklahoma City, San Antonio, and Utah. 

"Stat gurus" sagely declare that a three point shot is worth more than a two point shot, and that tanking is an analytically correct strategy for a team that cannot contend for a championship as currently constructed. I am waiting for some genius to combine these two brilliant insights and figure out that an optimal strategy for a team that cannot contend for a championship is to shoot three point shots at their own basket. After that happens, it will be fascinating to watch teams like the Oklahoma City Thunder and the San Antonio Spurs set up their defenses to prevent the opposing team from making three pointers at their own basket. Perhaps we will even see the creation of a new statistic called "true winning percentage." Since "stat gurus" see no value in coaching other than a coach's willingness to blindly follow the whims of the "stat gurus" in the front office, this new statistic will be a metric applied to general managers: any general manager of a team below .500 will receive bonus "true winning percentage" points for each loss that places his team further below .500, with the idea that any sensible GM of a losing team is trying to lose every game. 

What "stat gurus" and the media members who slavishly adore them fail to grasp is that teams losing on purpose are not only ripping off home fans who are buying tickets to watch a substandard product, but they are also striking a blow at the integrity of the sport overall—and one is right to wonder just how far some teams will be willing to go. If it is analytically correct to lose on purpose, why shouldn't a team shoot at the wrong basket at the end of a close game? Or, if that is too brazen, why shouldn't a team just let the other team score? What if two tanking teams square off in a late season game? Will both teams shoot at the wrong basket while being "analytically correct"? Such hypothetical questions may sound farcical or outlandish, but they are the natural outgrowth of the distorted thinking that now holds sway in the NBA. Even if tanking were a good strategy—and objective evidence demonstrates that no team has ever tanked its way to a title—any true basketball fan is disgusted by the nonsense that masquerades as a forward-thinking strategy. 

**********

Note:

I correctly picked five of the eight 2022 Western Conference playoff teams. Here are my statistics for previous seasons:

2021: 6/8
2020: 6/8
2019: 7/8
2018: 6/8
2017: 7/8
2016: 6/8
2015: 7/8
2014: 6/8
2013: 6/8
2012: 7/8
2011: 5/8
2010: 7/8
2009: 7/8
2008: 7/8
2007: 6/8
2006: 6/8

2006-2022 Total: 107/136 (.787)

Labels: Dallas Mavericks, Denver Nuggets, Golden State Warriors, L.A. Clippers, Memphis Grizzlies, Minnesota Timberwolves, New Orleans Pelicans, Phoenix Suns

posted by David Friedman @ 9:52 PM

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