20 Second Timeout

Is J.J. Redick the Next Pat Riley?

After firing Darvin Ham and being rebuffed by first choice Dan Hurley, the L.A. Lakers are gambling a reported $32 million over the next four years that J.J. Redick is the next Pat Riley--but their recent record of hiring and firing coaches provides little reason for optimism, as Phil Jackson has proven to be a tough act to follow. Since Jackson left the L.A. Lakers after the 2010-11 season, the Lakers have had seven different head coaches prior to Redick: Mike Brown, Bernie Bickerstaff, Mike D'Antoni, Byron Scott, Luke Walton, Frank Vogel, and Darvin Ham. Vogel--who led the Lakers to the 2020 "bubble" title--and Walton are the only members of that group who lasted three seasons on the job.

Vogel was by far the most successful Lakers coach post-Jackson, leading the Lakers to a 52-19 regular season record (.732 winning percentage) in 2020 en route to winning the franchise's first and only championship since Kobe Bryant carried the Lakers to repeat titles in 2009 and 2010. The Lakers fired Vogel after the Lakers lost in the first round in 2021 and then missed the playoffs in 2022. 

In Requiem for the 2022 L.A. Lakers, I analyzed several issues facing the team, many of which are still issues two years later: most notably, LeBron James' lack of consistent defensive effort and his focus on so many things other than team success limit the effectiveness of his leadership--and this is further complicated by the reality that James' friends in the media make sure that James is immune from any criticism regarding the Lakers' failure to live up to reasonable expectations. 

James and his media allies often lament that the Lakers have not surrounded James with better three point shooters, despite the evidence clearly showing that James' sole title run with the Lakers had nothing to do with three point shooting. The 2020 Lakers ranked fourth in points allowed and eighth in defensive field goal percentage. Contrary to revisionist history, their winning formula had nothing to do with surrounding James with three point shooters; they ranked 23rd in three point field goals made and 21st in three point field goal percentage--and it's not like they caught fire from beyond the arc during their playoff run: they ranked 12th out of the 16 playoff teams in playoff three point field goal percentage.

James and Redick have hosted a podcast together for the past few months, and it is evident that the podcast served as an interview process for James to decide who the Lakers would hire to replace Ham. James publicly denies having any input in the Lakers' firing and hiring decisions, but that is beyond disingenuous: star NBA players are consulted about such decisions as a matter of course, and James demonstrably has more influence on such decisions than most other NBA stars.

James' media allies portray Redick as a basketball savant positioned to become the next Pat Riley. Riley became the L.A. Lakers' head coach early in the 1981-82 season despite having no head coaching experience; he led the Lakers to four championships (1982, 1985, 1987-88), and then he coached the Miami Heat to the 2006 championship. The obvious difference between Riley and Redick is that Riley worked in the trenches as a Lakers assistant coach for a couple seasons before becoming the head coach, while Redick has spent more time cultivating a social media following than he has spent in the trenches as a coach (his only head coaching experience to this point is with his son's youth league team).

Redick was the consensus 2006 NCAA Player of the Year before having a long career as an NBA role player, but his resume as a player and James' tacit endorsement do not guarantee that this will work out well for the Lakers. It will be fascinating to see how the other Lakers react to being coached by the inexperienced Redick with James pulling the marionette strings even more blatantly than James has with previous coaches.

Redick displayed both his arrogance in general and his specific ignorance about basketball history when he made disrespectful comments about Bob Cousy, and Cousy correctly retorted that Redick is an example of someone who attacks people with superior credibility and skills because he is deficient in both departments. Redick's arrogance and smug demeanor are apparent every time he opens his mouth; you can get away with thinking that you are the smartest person in the room if you really are the smartest person in the room, but if you are not the smartest person in the room then that act gets old very quickly. The extent to which Redick (1) is ignorant about basketball history, and (2) relies on "advanced basketball statistics" are both strong indicators that Redick is not quite as smart as he thinks he is.

Deep knowledge of basketball history may not be essential to being a successful coach--though I would argue that such knowledge can be a powerful tool in terms of understanding the evolution of the game--but arrogance combined with ignorance is toxic. Based on his public NBA commentary, Redick seems smitten with a very narrow view of basketball tactics focused on "advanced basketball statistics." That kind of biased and limited thinking has not helped Daryl Morey, Sam Hinkie or Sam Presti to win even one NBA title during a combined 38 years of running NBA front offices, and it is not likely to help the Lakers win a championship with Redick at the helm steering the Lakers toward making decisions based on "advanced basketball statistics."

It is worth noting that James' greatest success as an NBA player--when he won two championships, won back to back regular season MVPs, won back to back NBA Finals MVPs, and made four straight trips to the NBA Finals--happened during his four years in Miami, the only franchise that did not give James free reign over the front office's decision making processes. Riley runs the Heat, which includes making personnel decisions, and not letting James--or any other player--undermine the authority of Coach Erik Spoelstra. In contrast, James has exercised large influence on coaching and personnel decisions in Cleveland and L.A., where he has won a combined two championships in 17 seasons while compiling a 2-4 NBA Finals record with four non-playoff seasons and two first round exits. 

Thus, there is a large body of evidence spanning 21 years showing that James--even when in his absolute prime--fared much better when he did not have his fingerprints on every organizational decision. The Lakers have lost their last two playoff series with a combined 1-8 record, and it is doubtful that they can substantially improve the roster around James and his hand-picked sidekick Anthony Davis, so it will be fascinating to watch James and Redick attempt to coach the Lakers past the first round of the 2025 playoffs.

Last season, the Lakers ranked second in field goal percentage, eighth in three point field goal percentage, and sixth in scoring, so it is incorrect to assert that offense is their primary issue. In order to become more successful, the Lakers must improve their lackluster defense--last season they ranked 17th in defensive field goal percentage and 23rd in points allowed--and they must improve their rebounding (last season they ranked 18th in that category, a marked decline from ranking ninth during their 2020 championship season). Defense starts with (1) a good scheme designed by the coaching staff to maximize the team's matchup advantages and minimize the impact of matchup disadvantages, and (2) the team's best players putting forth maximum defensive effort, setting the right example for the rest of the team to follow.

Thus, intelligent Lakers fans should be concerned that during Redick's introductory press conference on Monday he focused on ways that he plans to change the Lakers' offense, including using Anthony Davis as a "hub"--presumably, a playmaker a la Nikola Jokic--and encouraging LeBron James to be a high volume three point shooter. Although James shot a career-high .410 from three point range last season, offense is not where the Lakers struggled last season, and deploying one of the greatest drivers in pro basketball history as a three point shooter is unlikely to help the team's offense or the team's overall performance; if Davis is going to be the Lakers' Jokic and James is going to be Michael Porter Jr. then who is going to be Jamal Murray and Aaron Gordon? There is a cliche that the NBA is a copycat league, but copying what one team did well when your roster does not have the same skill set strengths is not a recipe for success. The Lakers won the 2020 "bubble" title because James and Davis attacked the paint on offense and defended the paint on defense; turning them into a three point shooter and a point center respectively just takes the Lakers even further away from what worked in the best season of James' Lakers career.

The Lakers should be focused on getting stops and then scoring easy baskets in transition, as opposed to trying to dissect a set half court defense with Davis pretending to be Jokic and James settling for being a three point bomber. 

Casual fans know that the 2024 NBA Champion Boston Celtics ranked first in three point shots made and three point shots attempted while ranking second in three point field goal percentage--but intelligent fans understand that what matters most is that the Celtics ranked second in defensive field goal percentage, second in rebounding, and fifth in points allowed.

Redick stated that he signed up to lead a "championship caliber" team. A championship team must win four playoff series in one postseason, so that is quite an ambitious goal for a franchise that has won just four playoff series in the past four years. Rest assured that if the Lakers have another season that fails to meet those lofty, unrealistic expectations, Redick--not James--will receive the blame from James' media allies who uncritically accept the narrative that James had no input on the decision to hire Redick.

Labels: Anthony Davis, J.J. Redick, L.A. Lakers, LeBron James

posted by David Friedman @ 2:59 AM

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