Nuggets Sink Clippers to Take 3-2 Series Lead
Jamal Murray poured in a game-high 43 points, Nikola Jokic had a modest (by his lofty standards) triple double (13 points, 12 assists, 10 rebounds), Aaron Gordon scored 23 points on 7-11 field goal shooting, and Russell Westbrook had 21 points off of the bench as the Denver Nuggets dismantled the L.A. Clippers 131-115 to take a 3-2 series lead. Westbrook showed no ill effects from the foot injury that forced him to miss Denver's game three win. The Nuggets jumped out to a 17-6 first quarter lead, never trailed, and were ahead by as many as 22 points before settling for a 16 point victory margin.
Ivica Zubac scored a team-high 27 points on 11-15 field goal shooting, Kawhi Leonard had a near-triple double (20 points, 11 assists, nine rebounds), and Bogdan Bogdanovic added 18 points off of the bench for the Clippers, who melted down in front of their fans who thought that they showed up for a party, not a funeral.
All of the main players for both teams showed up--except for one: James Harden, a member of the NBA's 75th Anniversary Team, was his team's sixth leading scorer in this game. This is deja vu all over again for the Clippers, who are learning that there is at least one other certainty in life besides death and taxes: James Harden disappearing in game five of a 2-2 series. Last year, the Clippers entered game five versus the Dallas Mavericks tied 2-2, and they exited game five trailing 3-2 after a 123-93 loss during which Harden had a triple single (seven points, seven assists, four rebounds) while shooting 2-12 from the field (a frigid February "concert tour") and delivering his trademark "Harden" (a game during which a player has more turnovers than field goals made) with two field goals made and four turnovers. This year, Harden scored 11 points on 3-9 field goal shooting with five assists, four turnovers, and a game-worst -16 plus/minus number, achieving the rare (except for him) feat of logging a "concert tour" field goal percentage and a "Harden" in the same game.
Game five winners in a 2-2 series go on to win the series 81.3% of the time, so it is fair to say that game five of the Denver Nuggets-L.A. Clippers series was the biggest game of the season for both teams. Of course, game six is an even bigger game for the Clippers, because if they lose that game then their season is over with a first round exit, a sad finale for a squad that many "experts" lauded as a potential Western Conference Finals participant before the playoffs began.
Daryl Morey compared Harden favorably to Michael Jordan, but in fact Harden is the anti-Jordan: when Jordan played in a pivotal playoff game you knew that he would be very efficient and productive and his team would most likely win, but when Harden plays in a pivotal playoff game you know that he will be inefficient and unproductive and his team will most likely lose. Harden's elimination game resume provides a blueprint for what the Clippers should expect in game six; last year in game six, Harden scored 16 points on 5-16 field goal shooting as the Mavericks ended the Clippers season with a 114-101 defeat.
Labels: Aaron Gordon, Jamal Murray, James Harden, Kawhi Leonard, L.A. Clippers, Nikola Jokic, Russell Westbrook
posted by David Friedman @ 2:09 AM
10 Comments:
Thought you might be curious how many total "Hardens" Harden has committed for his career, and where:
Across 171 playoff games, he has committed 26 Hardens, good for about 15%, or one out of every 7 playoff games he plays.
By team: OKC: 6 (14%) HOU: 10 (12%) BRK: 1 (9%) PHI:7 (30%) LAC: 2 (18%)
He was by far the worst in Philly. Tonight pushed LAC into second place but it could easily fall back into third by the end of this run given the small sample size. He was surprisingly decent about it in Houston.
Knowing your audience, I took the liberty of checking Westbrook's "Hardens" as well. He fares better than Harden, only recording 14 "Hardens" across 126 playoff games, a rate of about 11%, a bit over one out of every 10 playoff games he plays.
By team: OKC: 9 (9%) HOU: 1 (13%) WAS: 2 (40%) LAC: 2 (18%), DEN: 0 (0%)
Next, as a control group, I checked Stephen Curry. He has committed 7 total playoff Hardens across 151 playoff games, for about a 4% rate, though to his credit he last committed one in 2017.
If we're looking at those three specific players it only feels fair to check their mutual teammate Mr. Durant, as well. He's only recorded four "Hardens" for a rate of just over 2%, committing one about every 40 playoff games. That implies they might be easier to avoid if you're not a guard, but...
To be mean, I then checked your favorite punching bag Mr. Triple Single. He has an astonishing 37 "Hardens" across 166 playoff games, setting the new record at 23%, nearly one every four games. If we would like to be charitable, scoring is not his responsibility in the same way as it is for the first three players and a quick glance at the profiles of Rodman (42 total, 25%) and Ben Wallace (15 total, 12%) suggest they're fairly common for undersized defensive specialists, but still a little funny IMO.
Finally, in honor of your Pantheon series, I checked the Pantheon guards who've played since TOs have been recorded:
Magic: 32 total, 17%, about one every sixth game (!!)
Jordan: 0 total, 0%, about one every never
Kobe: 4 total, 2%, about one every 50 games
I suppose Magic's higher playmaking load and lower scoring responsibility made him more vulnerable to "Hardens", though it's still shocking to see he's more prone to them than their namesake!
Overall this was pretty amusing to look into, please feel free to let me know if there's anyone else you'd like me to check, I'm more than happy to do the legwork :)
StatDork:
Those numbers are interesting. What method did you use? Did you look at Basketball Reference's Playoff Game Log, sort by games with most turnovers and then cross reference to the field goals made column, or is there a more efficient way to do this? I never looked at the career numbers because I never thought of this as a statistical category until Harden had that run in Philly during which he had more turnovers than field goals made overall for a stretch of games.
The Jordan and Kobe numbers do not surprise me at all; both players were highly efficient scorers with reasonable turnover totals considering their dual responsibilities as high volume scorers and playmakers.
Including Draymond Green, Dennis Rodman, and Ben Wallace in this discussion is not fair because their field goal made totals are low by design.
The Westbrook numbers would probably surprise some people, but he is not as inefficient as his critics suggest (nor is he as efficient as Jordan, Kobe, and Curry).
The Magic numbers surprised me at first, but then I remembered that (1) Magic was a high turnover player and (2) he was not a high volume scorer, particularly in his first few years. It should be noted that Magic had a much higher career playoff field goal percentage than Harden (.506 to .425); when Magic had a playoff game with a low FGM number, his teams usually still won because his primary job was to distribute the ball. Magic had 11 career playoff games with 2 FGM or less, but his team went 7-4 in those games and he had at least 13 assists in eight of those 11 games (with the Lakers going 7-1 in those games).
Yes, I used BBREF. StatMuse would probably have been more efficient but I was also idly curious about when each "Harden" happened so I took the longer approach.
What I wish I'd done, and may yet do if I have time later, is also log the win/loss rate in "Hardens" for each player, which as you indicate with Magic is useful supporting data. My hypothesis would be that Harden and Westbrook lose most of their "Hardens" while Curry and Magic probably still fare ok, but that is purely speculative and I might be wrong.
"five assists, four turnovers" ... "a 'Harden'" --> I thought a "Harden" was TO > A
Marcel
I still think the clippers will win in 7
Jamal Murray a better playoff player than reg season.
Harden has never been a great regular season player but he is the 3rd best guard of his generation behind Steph and Chris Paul.
Kawhi gonna have to carry them and James will have to help at moment's the next two games
I picked the Clippers to win the series in six games before the playoffs started (obviously that is no longer a possibility) because of their superior depth, along with all of the drama surrounding the Nuggets with the Malone firing. But my biggest concern with that pick was that Harden's tendency to struggle in the playoffs (particularly as a playoff series continues to progress), and while he was pretty solid throughout the first four games, everyone kind of knew that a bad game from him was on the horizon. I think a Nuggets-Thunder second-round series (between the top two players in the NBA this season) would be fun to watch though.
StatDork:
The numbers are interesting, and confirm my impression that Harden has had many more playoff games with more turnovers than field goals made than truly elite scorers such as Jordan, Kobe, and Curry.
Anonymous:
Sorry for any confusion caused. In my game recap, I listed all of Harden's relevant statistics; as explained in earlier articles, I define a "Harden" as a game during which a player has more turnovers committed than field goals made. Harden specializes in such games.
Marcel:
I expect the Nuggets to win in six, as I predicted before the series began; I even wrote that it was likely that the series would start out 2-2 before Denver won two straight, so the series is proceeding just as I expected.
I am not sure who you are including in Harden's "generation," but I would not rank Harden as the third best guard in any generation or in any meaningful subset of guards. Yesterday, he was barely the 10th best player on the floor, and playoff choking matters when evaluating a player's overall greatness. Harden is one of the worst chokers among players who have received the accolades and awards that he has.
Todd:
I agree that an OKC-Denver series featuring SGA versus Jokic (even though they won't be guarding each other) would be fun to watch.
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