20 Second Timeout: Thoughts and Predictions About the 2025 NBA Play-In Tournament

Monday, April 14, 2025

Thoughts and Predictions About the 2025 NBA Play-In Tournament

In a tradition unlike any other--and not in a good way--the NBA Play-In Tournament is the unappetizing appetizer before the NBA playoffs begin on April 19. Two of the four Western Conference Play-In teams have losing records, but the Eastern Conference tops that with three out of four Play-In teams having losing records (and the fourth, Orlando, is 41-41). When losing teams face each other for the opportunity to get stomped in the first round of the playoffs, fans are treated to incredible basketball. In the scintillating 2021 NBA Play-In Tournament, the Indiana Pacers silenced the Charlotte Hornets, 144-117. To give you an idea of how great that 2021 Pacers team was, in their next game they bowed out of the Play-In Tournament after losing 142-115 to the Washington Wizards, who were promptly dispatched in the first round by the Philadelphia 76ers, 4-1. In more recent captivating Play-In Tournament action, last year the 39-43 Chicago Bulls beat the 36-46 Atlanta Hawks 131-116 before losing 116-91 to the 46-36 Miami Heat, who then got drubbed 4-1 by the Boston Celtics in the first round.

The 2025 NBA Play-In Tournament starts tomorrow night with the 41-41 Orlando Magic hosting the 40-42 Atlanta Hawks to earn the Eastern Conference's seventh seed and a first round matchup versus the 2024 NBA champion Boston Celtics. Then, the 48-34 Golden State Warriors host the 48-34 Memphis Grizzlies in a battle for the Western Conference's seventh seed and a first round matchup versus the Houston Rockets. The Warriors are perhaps the Play-In Tournament team that is most highly regarded; they improved a lot after acquiring Jimmy Butler from the Miami Heat but--as I predicted right after that trade happened--the Warriors are fighting just to get in the playoffs, so any notion about them making a deep playoff run seems far-fetched. The Warriors could have qualified for the playoffs outright by beating the L.A. Clippers in their season finale, but instead the Warriors lost 124-119 in overtime while getting outrebounded 42-25 and letting the Clippers shoot .558 from the field.

The eighth seeds in each conference will be determined after the 39-43 Chicago Bulls host the 37-45 Miami Heat and the 40-42 Sacramento Kings host the 39-43 Dallas Mavericks on Wednesday. The losers of those games will be eliminated, while the winners will face the losers of the Orlando-Atlanta and Golden State-Memphis games respectively to claim the final playoff spots.

Last season, the Magic looked like a young team on the rise, posting a 47-35 record to finish fifth in the Eastern Conference before losing 4-3 to the Cleveland Cavaliers in the first round. This season, the Magic suffered a lot of injuries to key players, and they limped--literally and figuratively--to a 41-41 record. They struggle to score, but they keep the pace down and thus rank first in the league in points allowed.

The Hawks are the stylistic opposite of the Magic, ranking fifth in points scored and 27th in points allowed, and they rely heavily on the inefficient Trae Young (24.2 ppg, league-leading 11.6 apg, .411 FG%) to score and to create scoring opportunities for his teammates. The Hawks went 8-7 down the stretch, and they split the season series with the Magic, including a Hawks season finale win with both teams sitting many of their key players. The Magic went 10-5 in their last 15 games, including the meaningless last game loss to the Hawks.

In a battle of two mediocre teams fighting to be first round fodder, I pick the Magic to beat the Hawks.

This season, the Warriors ranked seventh in rebounding, eighth in points allowed, and 11th in defensive field goal percentage; those rankings are very strong, but not quite as good as the team's rankings in 2022 (seventh, third, and second respectively) when they won their most recent NBA title. The Warriors started the season 25-26 and then went 23-8 after the Butler trade, but the Warriors went just 9-6 in the last 15 games, including the aforementioned loss to the Clippers that forced them to participate in the Play-In Tournament. Few championship teams are formed on the fly, and there is little reason to believe that--even if one accepts the proposition that this is a championship caliber team--this team will be the exception.

The Grizzlies ranked second in scoring, fourth in defensive field goal percentage, and eighth in field goal percentage. Those are championship caliber rankings, but the Grizzlies went just 6-9 down the stretch, including 4-5 after replacing Coach Taylor Jenkins with interim Coach Tuomas lisalo. Ja Morant led the Grizzlies in scoring (23.2 ppg) and assists (7.3 apg) this season after playing just nine games last season--but even this season he only played 50 games and his numbers across the board were not at the same level as his 2022 and 2023 statistics. Throughout his career, Morant has been fined and suspended multiple times for actions that are immature or worse, and this season he was fined $75,000 by the NBA for a finger gun celebration. One might think that squandering more money than many people make in a year would cause him to rethink his behavior, but instead Morant doubled down by switching to a hand grenade celebration. What is next? A howitzer? Meanwhile, what idiotic things will Draymond Green say or do while Stephen Curry and Jimmy Butler do the heavy lifting required to win this game? On the one hand, it would be hilarious if Butler and Green don't even make it to the first round of the playoffs after all of their talking and posturing, but on the other hand as soon as the Warriors are eliminated we will likely be subjected to Green polluting the airwaves with bizarre commentary for TNT--so fans face a lose-lose proposition with this game.

Both of these teams pose as championship contenders without appearing to have what it takes to win a championship this season (if ever), but in this game I am picking the Warriors to win a close, hard fought game over the Grizzlies.

The losers of the above games will play the winners of the 9-10 matchups in their respective conferences. The Miami Heat were not particularly good this season with or without Butler, though they did go 8-7 in their last 15 games. The Heat defend reasonably well--ranking seventh in points allowed, ninth in defensive rebounds, and 12th in defensive field goal percentage--but they struggle offensively, ranking 18th in field goal percentage and 24th in scoring.

The Chicago Bulls rank sixth in scoring but 28th in points allowed. The Bulls shipped leading scorer Zach LaVine to Sacramento in a three team midseason deal. They turned the offense over to Coby White, who averaged 20.4 ppg overall, including 24.5 ppg after the All-Star Game. The Bulls went 11-4 in the final 15 games to move up to the ninth spot and earn the right to host one Play-In Tournament game.

I am picking the Bulls to score at least 115 points and beat the Heat, and then I am picking the Bulls to beat the Hawks to claim the eighth seed.

After reaching the NBA Finals last season for the first time since winning the 2011 NBA title, the Dallas Mavericks made an era-defining in-season trade by sending franchise cornerstone Luka Doncic to the L.A. Lakers for Anthony Davis. To put it mildly, the trade has not worked out well for the Mavericks so far; the team's fans are outraged, and the Mavericks struggled to absorb the loss of Doncic plus injuries to all of their key big men (including Davis, who is now back), and the season-ending torn ACL suffered by Kyrie Irving shortly after the fateful trade happened. The Mavericks went 6-9 down the stretch, and for portions of this season they barely could pull together the required eight healthy bodies just to avoid forfeiting a game. We will have to wait until at least next season to find out how good the Mavericks can be with Davis, Irving, and the Daniel Gafford-Dereck Lively II big man tandem.

The Sacramento Kings fired Mike Brown after a 13-18 start to the season. They enjoyed a brief honeymoon period under interim Coach Doug Christie, and then they finished the season by going 6-9 in the last 15 games to slide to ninth; if the season had lasted a week longer, they easily could have fallen into the Draft Lottery.

I am picking the Kings to beat the Mavericks, and then I am picking the Grizzlies to beat the Kings.

If my predictions are correct, the Magic and Warriors will claim the seventh seeds in their respective conferences, and the eighth seeded teams will be the Bulls and Grizzlies.

We can hope that this year's Play-In Tournament provides at least a few interesting and competitive games.

Previous Play-In Tournament Articles:

2024

76ers Cool off Heat to Clinch East's Seventh Seed, Heat Will Host Bulls to Determine East's Eighth Seed (April 18, 2024)

Lakers Clinch West's Seventh Seed, Pelicans Will Host Kings to Determine West's Eighth Seed (April 17, 2024)

The NBA Play-In Tournament Gives Mediocre Teams an Opportunity to Salvage Their Disappointing Seasons (April 15, 2024)

2023

Zion Williamson's Refusal to Play Despite Being Healthy Embodies What is Wrong With Today's NBA (April 13, 2023)

L.A. Lakers Need Overtime to Dispatch Shorthanded Minnesota Timberwolves in Play-In Tournament (April 12, 2023)

The 2023 NBA Play-In Tournament: Grab Your Popcorn and Savor the Mediocrity! (April 10, 2023)

2022

Notes on the 2022 NBA Play-In Tournament (April 14, 2022)